LETTERFROM THEPRESIDENT
DearMembers,ColleaguesandFriends,
HAPPYNewYeareveryone!Perhapsthemostexcitingyearsofarinthe21stcentury?
InthisnewissueofHumanFuturesMagazine,youwillfindalongrangeofinteresting perspectivesandtopicsspanningfromEnergyPoliciesoverScienceFictiontoscenariosforChinaʼs digitalsilkroad.
Asalways,theMagazinestartsoutwiththe“FuturesMatters”column.Inthisissueʼsversion,ClaireA.Nelson finditpuzzlingthat,sofewpeoplearefocusedoninnovationinsectorsthatarepurportedtobringpeaceand joytotheworld.Elaboratingaroundthissheasksthreequestions:1)WhatistheFutureofEthics?2)Whatisthe FutureofMorality?,and3)WhatistheFutureofReason?
TherearethreebrilliantFeaturescontributionsthistime.First,ValentínlooksintotheEnergyResources in2023-2033whereheclaims:“…amigrationfrominflation,notsecureenergysupplies,pollutionand contaminationtowardsmostefficientproduction,storage,distributionandcontaminationstopmymeans ofnewmaterials,newwaysofconstruction,AImanagementmakesakeyforachievingasuccessfulfuture transition”.Second,NimaGhasemi,presentsomeperspectivesonsciencefictionseenfromhisIranian backgroundandthereadingofthePersianpoetHafez,FrankHerbert,FredPolak,JohnManuelCook,Paul Ricoeurandmore.Interestinglyhemakesthefollowingstatement:“Narrationleads tothecreationofreality”.Third,KaitesiErtzgaard,presentsforusthreescenariosaboutthefuturesforChinaʼs digitalsilkroadineastAfrica,whichcouldputsomelightsonthecomplexChina-Africanrelations. Last,butnotleast,youwillalsointhisissuefindourPrognosis,Revies,TechnicalNotes,WFSFHappenings andAftermost.
IwishyouallahappyREADING!
SincerelyYours,
Erik ErikF.Øverland PresidentWorldFuturesStudiesFederation(WFSF)wfsf.org
president@wfsf.org
EDITORIALCOMMITEE
ErikØverland Editor-In-Chief
ClaireNelson Editor-At-Large
“Untilweseethevalueofsharingthefuture, wewillnotachievethefuturewemostvalue”
RalphMercer ManagingEditor
“Ifthefutureismeasurable,achievableandsafe,wefailedmiserably. Thefutureweneedisrisky,messy,amazingandpost-humanist.”
AmyFletcher
FeaturesEditor
HankKune
FeaturesEditor
Thefutureisnotwhatitusedtobe
ElissaFarrow
FeaturesEditor
Thefuturerequiresustobecomfortablewithuncomfortableness. Love,listenandrespecteachotheronourwaytothefuture.
MohsenTaheri
News&EventsEditor
KevinJae
CopyEditor
Historiaabscondita.Everygreathumanbeingexertsaretroactiveforce...There isnowayoftellingwhatmayyetbecomepartofhistory.Perhapsthepastisstill essentiallyundiscovered!Somanyretroactiveforcesarestillneeded!”-Nietzsche
CristopheBisson
CopyEditor
“Futurethatissustainablerequirestohybridize HumanandMachine”s
LeopoldMureithi
ReviewRoomEditor
RosaAlegria
PR&Marketing
“Hopeisthefuelthatdrivestheengineofthedesiredfuture”
ThomasMengel
ReviewRoomEditor
“Co-creativestorytelling,games,andfilmsareimportant waystoimaginemeaningfulfuturestogether”
REVIEWROOM
FOREMOST
FUTUREMATTERS
CANYOUFINDPEACE
By ClaireA.Nelson2022Gone.AttheSpeedoflight.Wearenowsettledin toliveandlovewithchronicCOVID,long-haulCOVID, stillmutatingCOVID.Justanotherdiseasewecan manage.Withboostershotsornot.Iamlookingoutat 2023onthewayto2050withsomewhatblurredvision.Ithas beenhardtostayoptimisticwithconstantonslaughtofnews abouttechnologicalmarvelsthatformeseemtobeharbingers ofdoom.Yes.Ididsaydoom.Despitemydetermined optimisticstanceinlife,Idotendtoseesecondandthirdorder fingersofhorrorlurkingbehindeverystoryofgloriousadvances intechnologyfromAtoZ--fromAIthroughblockchain, cryptocurrency,genome-splicing,quantumcomputing,Six(6)
G,xeno-biology(asub-sectorofthestudyofsyntheticbiology) andzenography(thestudyofJupiter).
EvenMcDonaldʼshasdecidedtoturntheirgoldenarches intoatestbedforcontactlessfoodservice.Manymightbe heldinthrallbytheprospectoffrench-friesthathavenotbeen touchedbyhumanhands.Butformethethrillisgone.Ihave longsuspecteditwascomingeversincetheheadlinestouted thatChinahadbeguntestingitsfirstrobot-runrestaurant inShanghaiin2018.Onewouldthinkwithapopulationof 1billion,therearesurelypeople-a-plentyinsearchofwork. Maybethisthenewwaytowagewarontheworkingpoor. Ifweremoveworkersandtheirwagesfromtheprofit-loss equation,notonlywillthesocialsafetynetsstartsaggingunder theweightofunmanageablenumbersoftheun-andunderemployed,butsaidworkersarelikelytospendtheirnew-found leisurehoursgettingboozeduponasteadydietofTikTok. Leftuncontrolledanduncensored,thehyper-happinessof unfetteredTikTokscrollingwillgivewaytoapathy,boorishness, cantankerousnessanddiscontent.Fromthereitsonlyone
slipperyslopetoincreasedsocialdiscord,dissonanceand evengreaterdivisivenessbetweentheclasses,genders,races, communities,cities,andstatesandbeforeyouknowit…“Oops!
Thereliesthecarcassofdemocracy.”Thereisareasonwhy althoughtheyʼreownedbythesamecompany,TikTokinChina offersachild-friendlyversion,witheducationalvideosanda timelimit,thatisnotthesameastheTikToxofferedintheUSA, orelsewhereintheworldforthematter.
Guesswhoisontaptowintheculturewarsforthecontrolof thefuture.Unlesstherestoftheworldwakesuptheinsidious dangeroftoomuchinformationandtoomuchfreedom.Ithas beensaid,“Freedomisnotfree.Itisboughtatahighprice.It canbesquanderedcheaply.Thepriceoffreedomiseternal vigilance.Thefutureofdemocracylikewise.Thebanninglaw beingproposedbytheUSCongress,titled“AvertingtheNational ThreatofInternetSurveillance,OppressiveCensorshipand Influence,andAlgorithmicLearningbytheChineseCommunist PartyAct(ANTI-SOCIALCCPAct),”wouldprotectAmericans byblockingandprohibitingalltransactionsfromanysocial mediacompanyin,orundertheinfluenceof,China,Russia, andseveralotherforeigncountriesofconcern.CanAmericans giveupTikTokorwillweneedanotherdecadeofʻJUSTSAYNOʼ commercialstargetingthesocialmediaaddicted.
Ifinditpuzzlingthat,sofewpeoplearefocusedon innovatinginsectorsthatarepurportedtobringpeaceandjoy totheworld.LikeChristmas.Whereistheinnovationthere?
WearestillsingingChestnutsRoastingonanOpenFire,even inthetropics,andsurelytherenditionofHandelʼsMessiahby orchestraandchoruscouldwithstandamoderninterpretation andimprovisation.Howisitthatdespiteallthetechnological marvelsandexperienceswecanbuy,westillarenothappier asaspecies?Thisweknowbytheincreasingpercentageof peoplewithmentalhealthchallengesandtherisingnumber ofdeathbytheirownhands.Andnooneisimmune.Eventhe seeminglyrichandfamousinpossessionofenviablenumbersof Twitterfollowers.Itusedtobethatwethoughtthatbeing“likedʼ wasasurewaytofindhappiness,nowwearebeingmadeto understandthankstoreggaesingerChronixxwearetodowhat wedoforʻloveʼofwhatwedoandnotforthesakeofsecuringa hailstormofʻlikesʼonsocialmediaʼ.Itmakessense.Forwenow knowthatlifeinthefuturepresentinthistheseconddecade ofthe21stcenturydoesnotseemanymoresecureforthoseof wholiveinfearoflosingʻitʼ(whateverʻitʼyoucaretoname)than thosewholivedthefuturepast-onehundredyearsago.The roaringtwenties(1920-1929)arisingoutofWorldWarI,andthe newfoundjoyssuchastherockets,theelectricblender,quick frozenfoodsinventedbyClarenceBirdseyewhosefrozenpeas andcarrotsstillfinditswayintoourkitchensandtheelectric stoplightinventedbyGarretMorgan,aBlackman(incase youdidnotknow).Weseemtobeslowlylosingourminds asmachinesbecomemoreandmoreintelligent.Despiteour abilitytosplicethegenomeand3-Dprintbodypartswestill
donʼtseemtohavethetoolstohealourminds.
Maybeourseeminglyinexorablemarchinthedirectionof technologicaladvancementislikethesearchforFoolsGold. Themorerichesweseemtoget,themorefoolishwebecome. Howmightwegettofuturesofwellbeing?Wheremore peopledo“morebetter”?Maybeweneedinnovationsthat canimprovethequalityofourdecisionmaking.Notjustthe qualityofthedata?Butthequalityofourminds.Thequalityof ourethicsandmorals.Maybeweneedtoinnovatearoundthe principlesandphilosophiesbywhichwemaketherulebooks thatguideourhumancivilizationfromvillagetocitytostateto space.Maybeweneedtoreimagineoursharefuturethrough theSMARTValuesofSolidarity,Mutuality,Altruism,Reciprocity andTrustforthe21stCentury.
Giventhecomplexityofchallengesweface-fromdeciding howtodesignbathroomsthataddresstheneedsofbothour multi-genderedGenerationZaswellasthestuck-in-the-past boomersandreligiousadherentswhostubbornlyclingto thebeliefthatawomanmustbebornwithasetofovaries andafallopiantube,todecidinghowwewillsharetheMoon orcraftingthesustainabilitymetricsforclimateengineering neededtosaveusfromtheexcessesofourcarbonaddictionweneedhelp.
DespiteItbeingtheChristmasseason,Iwashopefulthat aheavenlymessengerwouldsoundaboutnewsofthebirth ofplanetaryconsciousnessthatwouldheraldgladtidingsof greatjoy.Indeed,goodnewsbearsseemtobeinhibernation. ThenightremainedsilentasnoMagicameforwardwithgifts. Buthark!OpenAIdelivereduntousCHATGPT,amodern-day oracleavailableatourfingertips.NoneedtovisittheDelphi onMountVesuvius.Andthus,itwastothisneworacleof knowledge,ChatGPTthatIturnedforguidanceontheFuture ofEthics,MoralityandReason,thebedrockforshapingthe SMARTvaluesweneed.
Myfirstquestion.
ME: “WhatistheFutureofEthics?”
Ididnottoomuchcareforthefirstansweritgaveme,asI feltitdidnotadequatelyaddressmyfears.So,Iaskedagain. Thisisthesecondresponse.
THEORACLE: “Itisdifficulttopredictexactlywhatthe futureofethicswillbe,asitdependsonthevaluesandbeliefs oftheindividualsandsocietiesthatshapeit.However,there areafewtrendsandissuesthatarelikelytoshapethefuture ofethicsinthecomingyears.
Onetrendthatislikelytocontinueistheincreasing recognitionoftheimportanceofethicalconsiderationsin variousfields,suchasbusiness,technology,andpolitics.As technologybecomesmoreadvancedandsocietiesbecome moreinterconnected,theethicalimplicationsofcertain actionsanddecisionsarelikelytobecomemoreapparentand morewidelydebated.
Anothertrendthatislikelytoshapethefutureofethicsis
theincreasingrecognitionofthevalueofdiversityandinclusion. Thisincludeseffortstopromoteequalityandfairnessforpeople ofallgenders,races,andbackgrounds,aswellaseffortsto protecttherightsofmarginalizedanddisadvantagedgroups.
Inadditiontothesetrends,therearealsolikelytobea numberofspecificissuesthatwilldriveethicaldebatesin thefuture.Forexample,theethicalimplicationsofemerging technologies,suchasartificialintelligenceandbiotechnology, arelikelytobeamajorareaofconcern.Theremayalsobe debatesaroundtheethicsofissuessuchasclimatechange, globalinequality,andthedistributionofresources.
Overall,thefutureofethicsislikelytobeshapedbya combinationoftrendsandspecificissues,aswellasthevalues andbeliefsoftheindividualsandsocietiesthatareinvolvedin shapingit.”
Ididthereconnaissance.Moreofthesamewithafewnew twists.Ilikedthementionofdiversity,equityandinclusion.
Ithenturnedtoquestiontwo.
ME: “WhatistheFutureofMorality?”
THEORACLE: “Itisdifficulttopredictthefutureofmorality withcertainty,asitdependsonanumberofcomplexsocial, cultural,andtechnologicalfactorsthatareconstantlychanging. However,somepossibledevelopmentsthatcouldshapethe futureofmoralityinclude:
Thecontinuedevolutionofsocialnormsandvalues:As societiesevolveandchange,sotoodotheirnormsandvalues. Forexample,inthepast,certainformsofdiscriminationor inequalitywereconsideredacceptable,butarenowwidely consideredimmoral.Similarly,thefuturemaybringnewmoral issuesthatarecurrentlyunimaginable.
Theimpactofnewtechnologies:Thedevelopment andwidespreaduseofnewtechnologies,suchasartificial intelligenceandbiotechnology,couldhavesignificantmoral implications.Forexample,thesetechnologiescouldraiseethical questionsabouttherightsofrobotsortheuseofgenetic modificationtoenhancehumancapabilities.
Changesinculturalandreligiousinfluences:Different culturesandreligionshavetheirownmoralframeworksand guidelines.Aspeoplebecomemoreinterconnectedand globalized,itispossiblethatthesedifferentmoralframeworks couldinfluenceoneanother,leadingtochangesinhowpeople viewandpracticemorality.
Theroleofeducationandcriticalthinking:Educationand criticalthinkingskillscanhelppeopledeveloptheirownmoral principlesandreasoningskills.Assuch,thepromotionof educationandcriticalthinkingmayplayaroleinshapingthe futureofmorality.
Ultimately,thefutureofmoralityisdifficulttopredict andwilllikelybeshapedbyacomplexinterplayofthese andotherfactors.
Finally,mythirdquestion.
ME: “WhatistheFutureofReason?”
THEORACLE: “Itisdifficulttopredictthefutureofreason withcertainty,asitdependsonanumberofcomplexsocial, cultural,andtechnologicalfactorsthatareconstantlychanging. However,somepossibledevelopmentsthatcouldshapethe futureofreasoninclude:
Theimpactofnewtechnologies:Thedevelopmentand widespreaduseofnewtechnologies,suchasartificialintelligence andmachinelearning,couldhavesignificantimplicationsforthe waywethinkandreason.Forexample,thesetechnologiescould assistwithtasksthatrequirecomplexreasoning,ortheycould potentiallyaugmenthumanreasoningabilities.
Changesineducationandcriticalthinking:Educationand criticalthinkingskillscanhelppeopledeveloptheirreasoning skillsandtheabilitytoevaluateandanalyzeinformation.Assuch, thepromotionofeducationandcriticalthinkingmayplayarole inshapingthefutureofreason.
Theroleofsocialmediaandonlinecommunication:The proliferationofsocialmediaandonlinecommunicationhas significantlyimpactedhowwecommunicateandaccess information.Thistrendislikelytocontinueinthefutureandcould impacthowwereasonandthinkaboutproblemsandissues.
Theinfluenceofculturalandsocietalfactors:Different culturesandsocietiesmayplacedifferentvaluesonthe importanceofreasonandcriticalthinking.Aspeoplebecome moreinterconnectedandglobalized,itispossiblethatthese differentculturalandsocietalinfluencescouldshapethefuture ofreason.
Ultimately,thefutureofreasonisdifficulttopredictandwill likelybeshapedbyacomplexinterplayoftheseandotherfactors.
Welllookatthat,theOracleseemstoberepeatingitself.Is thatgoodorbad?RightorWrong?HastheOracledoneenough researchandpracticetogivethebestansweroristhebestas yettocome?Truthbetold,thesamenessofthesethreeanswers leadmetobelievethattheoraclemaynotbeaswiseasneeded justyet.Nonetheless,theoracleandIdidhavesomethingin common.Webothbelievethatultimately,thefutureofethics, moralityandreasonisdifficulttopredictandwilllikelybeshaped byacomplexinterplayofseveralfactors.
FUTURES BAROMETER
SANTAʼs LASTLETTER…
AsinspiredbythefuneralpoetryofRabindranathTagoreandSeongSam-mun
By ClaireA.NelsonLASTLETTER…
AsinspiredbythefuneralpoetryofRabindranathTagoreandSeongSam-mun
Farewellmyfriends.Faretheewell.
WhatshallChristmasbecomewhenIam deadandgone?
Willtherebemountainsofemptyshelves instorehousesallovertheworldheralding thebirthofdesolationandthedeathof dreams?
Aslogicbeatsthedrumsfortheendofmy much-storiedlife inallbutyourmemories
Asyoudiscoverthatwhenthesunsetson thischapteroftheAkashicRecordsthere willbenolighttoguideyourgiving-forthto abetterworld
WhatforyoushallChristmasbecome?
FareTheewell.FarewellMyFriends.
Ihavebeenasnecessarytothechurnof themarketplace
asIhavebeentotheexpressionofloveʼs longingforitself
throughgiftingsmadeinmyname
Ihavebeenasimportanttothemakingof friendshipsandfamilies
asIhavebeentothemilkingofopportunity byscampsandscammers
Ihavebeenasvitaltohumanbeings asIhavebeentohumandoings.
FareTheewell.FarewellMyFriends.
Wheredodreammerchantsgotowhen theydie?
Dotheygodown?downbelow?orup?up inthesky?
Myhopeis…thatwhenyouthinkofme thedetrituscausedbymydemise doesnotbecomethefodderfor
recurringnightmares.
FareTheewell.FarewellMyFriends. Wehavefollowedthecourselaiddown byThreeMagiacrossnearthreemillennia throughMyratotheLaplandandNorth PoleandnowthedesertofthisNewJudea.
Wehavekeptwatchinthefieldsoverthe darknightofsoul.
HaveNoregrets. Eventhoughnoangelswillcometoherald theoccasion.
Aboutmyexecutioninthenameofthe Godsofreasoning thereshouldbenopain.
Fortheartificiallyintelligentrealitiesof ever-presentjoyinthemetaverse areforeveravailableatthepushofabutton Likethesoundtracksofthebellsof reindeerslongextinctexceptfor attheholodecksofthemeparkswhere snowcapsaremadebymachines Andthecryogenically-frozen advanceguards wingingtheirwaythroughtimetothefar reachesofAlphaCentauri willawakenwithmypostcardsintheir memorypockets.
FareTheewell.FarewellMyFriends.
Tothosedearheartswhohavelovedand caredformethroughthemillennia wrappinggiftsthatswaddledthewellwishesforthosewhomyouloved aswellasthosewhomyouwishedyou couldlove Totheonesthatkeptmegoingoverthe
pastcenturies
holdingmeupasasymbolofthegoodand theholy
evenasmachinelearninglaidwaste tomystery
andthechildrenbegantostopbelieving inmagic
Tothosewhohavestoodsteadfast bymystory
tryingvaliantlytokeepoursoul firesburning evenasourworldhasbecomehellsof ourcreation
andourtechnologyhasovercomeour humanity.
Donotcryforme. Idonotneedyourtears.AllIneedare yoursmiles.
Arisingfromthememoriesthatlikestars cannotbeextinguished.
Faretheewell.Farewellmyfriends.
Wheredodreammerchantsgotowhen theydie?
Dotheygodown?downbelow?orup?Up inthesky?
Myhopeis…thatwhenyouthinkofme thesmilesengenderedbymylight becomethesong-linesforyoureverconstantdreamsofpeaceandgoodwill... andthetorchforyourtransfiguration.
AndIwilllive.
I,thedreammerchant,willlive. Foraslongasyoulive.
FarewellMyFriends.Faretheewell. St.NicholasakaSantaClaus
FEATURES
ENERGYRESOURCES IN2023-2033.THEKEY TOTHEMIGRATION TOANEWFUTURE.
By ValentínTOcontrolAIanditssuperlativeforms(e.g., SuperintelligenceandPredictiveSuperintelligence) properlyby2033,wemustask,howdoachievemigration toacalmandstableenergymarket?
Tothinkaboutachievingthisgoalby2033,weshouldthink abouttheassetswehavethatareapplicabletomanysolutionsto generateadominoeffect--achainofsolutions.
Withsufficientenergyalljobsandtaskscanbeperformed, soenergyistheleadingfacettorework.Butunfortunately,the worldenergymarketisshowingacuteweaknessinresponse tothewarinUkraine.Thelessonfromthisisthatthefuture mustnolongerdependonasingleactuatorcausingachainof defeatingconsequences.
Theworldactuallyconsumesaround176,000TWhwithan increasingpaceof2,000TWhperyear.Inthefuture,wewill consumemoreenergythanwedotoday,tocompensatefor desalinatingwaterandnewwaysoffoodproduction,tonamea few.ConsideringthattheWorldpopulationincreasesby1billion peopleperdecade,by2033,wewillneedaround15%moreenergy thanin2023,andby2050,wewillneedapproximately50%more.
Astablefuturealsorequireofabundantenergyatareasonable costavailableforallcountriesandforallactivities,otherwisea calmedworldmarketwillnotbeachievedin2033andbeyond.
Themigrationfromfossilfuelstorenewableenergyis anecessitynotonlydemonstratedbywar.Thepriceofoil fluctuationsshowsatendencytogetmultipliedbyfiveevery 30yearswhenexaminingdatafrom1980tothepresent.So,the costsofnewlyproducedfoodanddesalinatedwatermustbe independentofapowersourcewhosepricetendstoescalate everydecadeorishighlysensitivetopoliticalinstability,andit needsapowersourcewithastablepriceandavailability.
GraphicprovidedbyMr. AdrianNixonandusedwith hispermission,fromNixene JournalandBoardmemberof ISEChttps://www.isec.org/
Theexpectedneedtodesalinate waterbyusingenergydemonstrates thatrevertingclimatechangeisurgent tostopdraughtprogress.Whilethe desalinationofaliterofsaltywater needsapproximately1Whofenergy,a projectionto2050indicatesthatwewill needtospendaround400TWhthisyear toensuredrinkablewatertohumanity. Thisis20%ofwhathumanityconsumes peryeartoday.
Lookingtothefar-termfutureinXXI Century,weforeseethattheenergy marketwillmigratetospace-origin-based sourcesbeyond2050.GalacticHarbour infrastructureswillmounthugesolar arraysinGEOtopowerEarthand establishawaytodriveLunarHe3for fusionreactors.Thesewouldbemanaged byPredictiveSuperintelligentcontrollers thatmatchavailabilitywithnecessityat thetimeitisneeded,thusachievingafull efficientuseofenergyandtechnology.
GalacticHarbours,Fusionreactors andPredictiveSuperintelligentsystems areexpectedtostartearlyoperations in2040andareexpectedtobemature technologiesaround2050.
Currently,thesesystemsarenot available--,whatcouldbedonebetween 2023and2050?
Suggestedconsultations:
Duringtheperiod2023-2050one mayexpectthatthepriceofprospecting, extracting,storinganddistributingfossil fuelswillnotceasetoincrease.Nuclear fissionreactorswillhavemuchhigher maintenancecostsandthermaldealing withwaterrefrigerationscarcity.Aglobal draughtwillalsoimpacthydroelectric productionwhilefreshwateravailability hasdiminished40%since1990.
Thepriceofsolaremergyhas decreasedandhastendedtostabilize sincethecostofsolarPVmodulesis20 timescheaperthanin1990.Transparent solarcellsincreaseoptionsfor integration.Solarinstallationscomein awidevarietyofscalesfromthosesmall enoughonlytopoweraclocktothose abletopowerprojectsmuchlarger.Itis alsoimmediatelyreactivetoAIcommands andmonitoring.
Grapheneiscalledamaterialkeyfor asuccessfulenergytransition.Moreover, itismoreenergeticallyefficientthan copperandisakeyfordeveloping SpaceElevatorsandGalacticHarbours. Itisalsomoreenergeticallyefficient thancopperandislighterweightlighter thancurrentlyusedelectricmaterials andverylikelytobuildhighefficient batteries.Moreoverthanthis,itcanbe
SpaceElevatorsandGalacticHarbours,courtesybyISEChttps://www.isec.org/ https://www.isec.org/studies
Energytrends,courtesybyOurWorldinDataTeamhttps://ourworldindata.org/
usedtofiltersaltywaterandobtain cheapdesalinatedwater.
Electricmaterialsusedtoday,suchas cables,batteries,andothers,arenotdesigned tomakeatopefficientuseofenergy.Also, thereisnotaworldwideimplemented educationforusersofdevicestomakean efficientuseofthem.
Approximately,30%ofproduced energytodayiswastedinonewayor another,orexample,itiswastedinthe formofheating,lighting,andfansturned onwhennotnecessary,thiswhilethe futurewilldemand+30%ofenergyto compensatetheeffectsofclimatechange onfoodproductionandwateravailability. Energymisusemustmigrateto profitableenergybyusingappropriate materialsandmanagingit.
AIandSuperintelligentcontrollers haveaveryprofitablejobtodohereby replacingthebadhumanmanagement ofenergy,properlymanagingthesources andstorageandswitchingitoffandon whenreallyneeded.
Insummary,wemustmoveawayfrom non-secureenergysupplies,pollution,and contaminationtowardsefficientenergy production,storage,anddistribution,AI managementmakesakeyforachievinga successfulfuturetransition.
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix https://ourworldindata.org/water-use-stress https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/crude-oil-prices
ONTHEKINSHIPOFHISTORICALNARRATIVE WITHSCIENCE-FICTIONSTORIES
By NimaGhasemiWHEN PaularrivesontheplanetArrakiswithhis fatherandhisfatherʼscommanders,hehearsthe crowdattheairportshouting:LisanalGaib!His motherexplainsthat“LisanalGaib”issynonymous withtheconceptof“Messiah”forthesepeople;Thatis,theone whoappearsandsavespeoplefromsufferingandmisery!“People saywhattheyaretoldtosay”,saysPaulunderhisbreath.
LisanalGaibmeanssomeonewhocancommunicatefrom thehiddendivineknowledgeaboutthefutureevents.Lisanisthe ArabicforTongue.AlGaibistheArabicfortheUnseen,thedivine realm,thehiddenknowledgeofthefuture.
So,itliterallymeansthetonguethatinformsusaboutthe unseenandthefuture.LisanalGaibisalsothepennameofthe
NOTES:
greatPersianpoetHafez,someonewhoisinformedaboutthe future!ManyconsiderHafezʼpoetryadoorintothehiddenor unseenrealmofthedivineandknowledgeofthefuture.People liketouseHafezʼpoetryasawaytoobtainGodʼsknowledgeofthe futurewhenmakingtoughdecisionsfacingbiguncertainty.
FrankHerbertgivesPaulthetitleLisanalGaibduetothis reason.ToknowhowFrankHerbert,theauthorofthesuccessful novelDunewhichwaspublishedin1965knewthisparticular termandwhyhewantedtoturnitintooneofthekeywordsof hisepicsciencefictionrequiresreadingthenovelitself.Butthe characterthatthepeopleoftheArrakisplanetcalltheLisanal Gaib,accordingtothestory,hastheabilitytoseethefuture.
Thestorybeginsintheyear10191!Thatis,inafutureextremely
ONTHEKINSHIPOFHISTORICALNARRATIVE WITHSCIENCE-FICTIONSTORIES
farfromourtime.Inthisworld,notonlyhavethemaincharacters ofHerbertʼsstory(includingPaul)theabilitytoseevisionsofthe future,butthestoryitselfisactuallyavision,aninsight,ora“image ofthefuture”.
FredPolakputstheterm“imageofthefuture”onthetitleof hisfamousbook.Underthecategoryofutopia,hestudiedallthe imagesofthefutureproducedbyhumansindifferentcivilizations. Accordingtohisresearch,thestoriesthattakeplaceinacertain time,butinanunknownplace,areclassicutopias,becausethe Greekword“utopia”itselfmeans“noplace”.TheplacethatHerbert depictswhichthelatestfilmadaptationbringstooureyesis surprisinginmanyways.
Iam,however,interestedinreconstructingtemporal consciousnesswiththeadverb“future”inthisworkfroma philosophicalperspective.Itisremarkablethattheauthorʼscreative mindimaginesadistantfuturewithveryoldelements!The conceptofthePromisedMessiah,andtheterm“LisanalGaib” arejusttwosimpleexamples.Theindigenouspeopleofthe Arrakisplanet,calledFremen,wearturbansaroundtheirheads andnecks,reminiscentoftheclothingthatancientGreekwriters andartistsdepictedofAchaemenidsoldiers.Inbothcases,this clothissupposedtoprotecttheeyes,earsandmouthfromthe desertsand.
InthetitleofShaddamCorrinoIV,thegreatemperorofthe galaxy,thereisaPersianwordPadishahwhichmeansKing.It showsthegreatnessofthisgreatemperor,reflectingtheimage thattheancientGreekshadofPersisemperors.IntheFoundation series,whichisanadaptationofIsaacAsimovʼsnovelofthesame name,youalsoseegreatemperors,whichwesternliterature considersspecifictoAsianpoliticalsystems,butitisinterestingthat inthereconstructionofthefarfuture,politicalsystemsareledby emperorsoncemore.
Infact,notonlyintheliteraturefocusedonthepast,but alsointheliteraturesetinthefuture,Westernwritersimagine andportraycomprehensivepoliticalsystemsofgovernance ledbyasingleruler(e.g.,empires).Oneistemptedtosaythat newadvancedtechnologiesandtheextraordinarypossibilities ofcontroloverpeopletheyhaveenablednaturallyleadstothe
emergenceofsuchempiresystemsofgovernance.
Inthiscase,thelikesofHerbertandAsimovhavebeen followingthelogicthatnewtechnologieswillpossiblyimpose onthefuturesociallifeofhumans.Butitisnotjustaboutthe re-emergenceofoldpoliticalsystemsinthedistantfuture. Thisfuturereconstructionofthepastispracticallyacollage (mixture)ofveryoldelementsofhumanlifeandnewemerging elements;eventhedesignofthecharactersʼcustomsissubject tothesamelogic.
Literaturedirectedtothepastisoftencalled“history”and literaturedirectedtothefutureiscalled“utopia”or“science fiction”.Theword“history”inthemeaningweusetodaywas naturallynotrelevantfortheGreeksofHerodotusʼtime.Thisword wasoftenusedinpluralform(histories)andthereforecomesfrom story.Therefore,theHistoriesbyHerodotus,forhiscontemporary Greek,probablyevokedsomethingintheelementsofstories.But HerodotusʼstoriesareinagenrecalledPersica,whichbasically meansthestoryofPersiskings!Therehavebeenseveralauthors (suchasCtesiasafterHerodotus,andDionysiusofMiletusand CharonofLampsacusbeforeHerodotus)whoalsowrotePersica. Soherewecanseethatifhistoryisaknowledge,likemostother branchesofknowledge,itwasexpandedfromaconcretesample andactuallyhadaprototype.
JohnManuelCookwritesinThePersianEmpirethatfor theancientGreeks,historywasonlyrelevantinthesenseof describingtheactionsofthePersiankingsandthewarsthey hadwiththeGreeks.IfpartsoftheGreekcoloniesdidnotfall underthepoliticalandmilitaryinfluenceofthePersianEmpire, therewouldbenosuchgenrefromwhichtheknowledgeof
historywasabstracted.Itshouldbementionedthatoutofthe twelvevolumes,ninevolumesofHerodotusʼtheHistoriesarethe descriptionofthewarbetweenthePersiansandtheGreeks.
Infact,inordertomakesuchnarratives,thePersicawriters wereindebtedtocompletelyrealbloodyeventsthattheyeither participatedinorheardfromtheirfathers!Thatis,livingelements connectedtothepresentwereavailableanditwasenoughto createanintroductionwithalittleimagination.Theywouldgo backintimetoexplain,forexample,thatthePersianEmpirewas foundedbyCyrusandhowitwastheturnofDariusIandhisson XerxesI.Whatexactlyhappenedinthefareastwasbeyondtheir meanstofindout.
PaulRicoeurwritesinTimeandNarrativethattherelationship
ofthehistorianwiththehistoricaleventas itactuallyhappenedisliketherelationship oftheresearcherwiththenoumen (thinginitself/DinganSich)ofKant;the phenomenonasthemanifestationofthat thinginitselfisrecognizabletoacertain extent,butitisnotpossibletoaccessthat thinginitselfinthepast.
Inevitably,historiographyisabout findingtheconnectionandrelationship betweensomethingcompletelyrealin thepresent,withelementsreconstructed withthehelpoftheimaginationthat musthavebeentheintroductionor backgroundofthepresent.Inthisway, history,likearithmeticandgeometry, isascienceofratios.Ifarithmeticand geometryisthescienceofrelationships betweenseparateandconnected quantities,historyisanefforttofind therelationshipbetweentodayʼsliving experienceandimaginaryelementsthat shouldbetheintroductionoftoday.
Inthiscase,isnʼtwhatwecallscience fictionorutopianliteraturethesamekind ofknowledge?Itisonlyenoughtomix todayʼslivingelementswithimaginary elementsinthelaboratoryofourmind aboutthefuture,whichshouldbetodayʼs “epilogue”(asopposedtoprologue).
Philosophically,theconsequenceof thisoutlookatfuturisticliteratureand cinemaisthatthistypeofnarrativeis notdifferentfromhistoryinitsgenus (genusintheAristoteliansense).If narrationcreatesknowledge,wecan distinguishtwotypesofknowledge withinthisgeneralgenus(narrative): retrospectiveknowledgeandprospective knowledge.Butnarrationisreally knowledgebecauseitisnothingbut acalendaroftemporalconsciousness. Inthisway,temporalconsciousness becomessubstantive,andinRicoeurʼs interpretation,timeistransformedfrom physicaltimetohumantimeintheway ofnarration.Inotherwords,thenarrative linesupandarrangesthescattered contentsinthemind,andinthisway, humansfindtheirplaceintime.
Fromthispointofview,thepresenceof veryoldelementsintheseforward-looking (utopian/futuristic)narratives,suchasthe linguisticinterpretationof“LisanalGaib”, theoutfitoftheFermannatives,amagic womanlikeGaiusHelenMohiam,which remindsusofthearchetypalcharacterof Medeainliteratureusedbytheclassical
writersofancientGreeceactuallyare notprojectingelementsofthepastinto thedistantfuture.Whathashappened istheuseoffamiliarimaginary elements,yetthistimeareconsidered epiloguetothepresent.These elementsarenotreallyintrinsically relatedtoPersisorPersiankings,not evennecessarilytotheEast.Rather, theyaretoolswhosehistoryofusein narrationbythecreativemindsofthe Westgoesbackatleasttothetimeof theprevalenceofalphabeticliteracy, thatis,theeraofancientGreekwriters.
Fromtheverybeginning,these elementsweredesignedasdistant elementsfrom“now”and“here”and theyplayaroleinthecalendaroftime consciousnessaccordingtowhether thecreativemindusesthemforthe epilogueorprologue.Referringto Husserlʼsintentionality,itisthemind thatsometimesdetermineswhetherthe elementsare“before”or“after”.
Ifweconsiderthatnarrativescan alsohaveanormativedimensionor,as futuristscallit,aself-fulfillingquality,then wehavemoresympathywithPaulwhen hesaysthatpeoplewillsaywhattheyare
told.Infact,thereisakindofprophetic andpreferably“apocalyptic”literaturein thegreattraditionsthatitselfintroduces signsandattachesthemtosomeoneor somethingcomingfromthefuture.This iswhyforward-lookingnarratives,like retrospectivenarratives,alwayshave apoliticalfunction.Theseapocalyptic narrativeshavemanyexamplesinthe traditionsandreligiousliteratureof ancientcivilizations,andthepolitical functionofallofthemisduetothe self-fulfillingcharacterofthenarrative. Narrationleadstothecreationofreality.
THEAUTHOR
NimaGhasemihasaPhDinPhilosophy fromShahidBeheshtiUniversity.Heisa writer,philosopher,andwasaresident ofIran,wheninNovember2021“was sentencedto4yearsinprisononacharge ofʻassemblyandcollusionagainstthe regimeʼandeightmonthsinprisonona chargeofʻpropagandaagainsttheregimeʼ“ (https://www.en-hrana.org/writer-andphilosophy-researcher-nima-ghasemisentenced-to-four-years-and-eightmonths/).Sincethen,Nimahasescaped fromIranandnowisaresidentofCanada.
2023SCENARIOSFOR CHINAʼSDIGITALSILK ROADINEASTAFRICA
By KaitesiErtzgaardINTRODUCTION
CHINAʼSdevelopmentinAfricathroughtheBeltRoad Initiative(BRI)isdecisivetoChinaʼsroleingreatpower politics.However,theimpactofBRIonAfricanstates, especiallywiththedigitaladditiontoBRI,namelyChinaʼs DigitalSilkRoad(DSR)mayleadtodisparateoutcomesin 2023.Thisanticipatoryarticlewillexplorethreealternative futuresfortheDSR,inEastAfrica.TheDSRisabranchwithin BRIthatfocusesondigitalconnectivityabroadtostrengthen Chinaʼsroleasatechnologicalsuperpower.AlthoughDSR hasthepotentialtoenhancedigitalconnectivityandthereby contributeheavilytoindustrializingstates,theinitiativecan simultaneouslycurtailtheEastAfricanCommunitiesʼ(EAC) economicandsocialdevelopment.Agrowingconcernis thatEastAfricanstatessuchasUganda,Rwanda,andKenya havemortgagedstrategicnationalassetstoreceiveloans, triggeringadebateaboutwhatoutcomestoexpectfrom theDSRinitiatives.Thisarticlewillanticipatethreeplausible scenariosforDSRinEastAfricafor2023andonwards:(I)DSR worksandpositivelyimpactstheEastAfricanregion,(II)DSR isnon-successfulandobstructstheEACʼssocialandeconomic development,(III)theEACbenefitseconomicallybutsuffers socialimplicationsfromtheDSR.
SCENARIO1
ThefirstscenarioisoneinwhichtheDSRinitiativeismutually successfulfortheEACandChina.DSRinitiativesconsiderlocal preferencesandimplementtechnologyinitiativesthatalignwith localICTagendasandconsequentlypromotebothChineseand EACgrowth.Inthis2023scenario,Chinaalsoenhancesregional
skilltrainingandemployment-initiatives,asseenintheNorthAfricanregion,forinstance,inEgypt.
Inconsequence,theEACwillbenefiteconomicallyfromthe continuanceoftherapidpopulationgrowthexpectedinAfrica. TheEACpopulationgrowthfacedin2023,influencedbyteenage pregnanciesfollowingthepandemic,combinedwiththeyoung populationagestructureintheEAC,createshugepotentialfor Chinaʼsdigitalexpansion.Throughskilltrainingandemployment, theyoungpopulationstructurebecomesacatalystfor acceleratedsocialdevelopment,GDPgrowth,andtechnological innovationthatwillcontinueemergingin2023andthefollowing years.BoththeEACandChinawillgainfromimplementing telecommunicationsnetworks,mobilepaymentsystems, surveillancetechnology,andothertechnologies.DSRstrengthens
ChinageopoliticallyandtheEACeconomically,boostinglocal developmentandimprovingEastAfricanlivingstandards.
SCENARIO2
ThesecondscenarioisoneinwhichDSRcreatesEAC dependencyonChinaasaconsequenceofthevasteconomic falloutfollowingthepandemic.TheEACgetsabsorbedinthe debt,trapsfollowingDSRandotherChinesedevelopment initiatives.ChinahasbeenAfricaʼslargesttradingpartnerfor 12years,andmanyAfricancountrieshaveoverindulgedin loansfromChina,onlytosubsequentlyrealizethattheycannot sustainrepayment.Inthisscenario,ChineseloanstoEastAfrican statesbackfireduetothelowabilitytorepayeminentlyin2023 followingtheeconomicdeclineafterthepandemic.TheEAC meetsdefaultonloansthataremainlysourcedfromChina,and thesealedloanagreementsbetweenChinaandtheEAC,referred toashiddendebtscreateEACdependencyandcontractual obligationstoChinain2023.Manywondersifstrategicnational
assetsareservingascollateralforextensiveloans.Thisdrastically restructuresthegeopoliticallandscapeasChinapresumably gainscontroloverstrategicassets/resourcesinEastAfrica.For instance,allegationsaremadeaboutUgandafacingtheloss ofthenationalairport,EntebbeInternationalAirport.Kenya, Ethiopia,andZambiaalsokeepstrugglingundertheburdenof Chinesedebtandcontinuetoseeknewrepaymentplansin2023.
SCENARIO3
ThethirdscenarioisoneinwhichtheEACenforces authoritariandevelopmentalismandgainseconomicallyfrom theDRS.Authoritariandevelopmentalismcreatesundemocratic andoppressivestatebehaviorswhichproduceatensepolitical climateintheregion.TheCovid19pandemicledmanyEast Africangovernmentstomonitortheirpopulationsforhealth purposesthroughtheimplementationofChinesesurveillance technologyprovidedbyHuaweiTechnologies.Thissubstantiates theundemocraticpoliticalclimateinsemi-authoritarianEast
Africanstates,asthepandemiccreatescomplexitiesof digitalethicalconsiderationssuchasrespectfordataprivacy andrulesregardingdigitalsurveillance.Inthisscenario, theEACdoesnʼtcomplywithdigitalrights,privacy,and dataprotectiontoensureaccountabilityandtransparency ofthesurveillance.Politicalpolarization,conflict,and oppositionmovementsalreadyseenin,forinstance, UgandaandRwandakeepemerginginEthiopiaandKenya amongstotherstatesintheEAC.Demonstratingagainst digitalsurveillance,spearheadedbyfiguressuchasPaul RusesabaginainRwandaandBobiWineinUgandagrows intheregion.Inthisscenario,theEACisunstabilizedbyan upswinginprotestsagainstanilliberalpoliticalenvironment withdigitalsurveillance,censorship,andotheroppressive statebehaviorsrelatedtoDSRʼsactions.Consequently, theEACwillexpanditstechnologicaldevelopmentand economicgrowth,butsufferfrompoliticalinstabilityand democraticbackslidein2023.
REVIEWROOM
MARVELSTUDIOSʼ BLACKPANTHER: WAKANDAFOREVER
MARVELSTUDIOSʼBlackPanther:WakandaForever, thesequeltothe2018BlackPanther,returnsto screenswithmoreaction,morecomplexities, andmorediasporicwhispersandnodsthanits predecessor.Thesequelopenedtoanimpressiveworldwidebox officereleaseandwillprovetobeiconic.
MarvelStudiosʼBlackPanther:WakandaForeverispartofthe MarvelCinematicUniverse,whichspansmultipleuniversesand timeframes.AlthoughWakandaForeverissetinthepresentand nearfuture,thestory(andmovietitle)implicitlyengageswith thefuturesofafictitiousSub-SaharanAfricannation,itsleaders, anditspeople.Wakandaistherichestandmosttechnologically advancednationontheplanetduetoitslocationontopofa powerfulalienmetalknownasvibranium,whichwassaidtohave cometoearthviaameteoritecenturiesago.Thecountrywas hiddenfromtheWesternworlduntilitsformerKingTʼChakawas killed(inthe2018movie)andsucceededbyTʼChallaplayedby ChadwickBoseman.
By ZabrinaEpps&AlvinSchexniderWeenterthestorywithWakandanowmourningthelossof KingTʼChallafromanunknownillness,duetothereal-lifeloss ofChadwickBosemantocoloncancerin2020.KingTʼChallaʼs motherQueenRamonda(AngelaBassett),handilypicksupthe mantletoleadtheresourceandculturallyrichSub-Saharan Africancountry,whichEuropeansnevercolonized.Inascene depictingameetingoftheUnitedNations,theQueenisprovoked toreaffirmhernationʼspowerinresponsetodemandsbyWestern countriesthatWakandashareitspreciousresource-vibranium1
Wearethenintroducedtoanewcivilizationduringatender momentbetweenQueenRamondaandPrincessShuri(Letitia Wright),TʼChallaʼssisterwhoisascienceandtechnologyprodigy. TheyaregreetedbyNamor(TenochHuerta)whorisesfromthe watertowarnthemthatvibraniumexistsoutsideofWakanda andthattheWesternworldʼsattemptstomineitisathreattohis Talokanpeople.Thefilmisarichtourdeforcethattoucheson grief,matriarchy,isolationismvsinternationalism,intervention forresources,andwar.Theentirecastisamazing,buttrulythe
filmrestsontheemotionaljourneyof Shuri(Wright),QueenRamondaʼs(Basset) anguishofrulingapeacefulnationat riskofinvasionwhilecopingwiththe lossofbothhersonandhusband,and Namorʼs(Huerta)steadfastcommitmentto protectinghisownpeopleastheirgodking,evenifitmeansdestroyingWakanda toprotecttheTalokan.
Itʼsimportanttonotethatthe TalokanarebasedonancientMayanand Mesoamericancivilizationswhowere forcedunderwaterwhentheirlandwas invadedbySpanishcolonizers(Polowy, 2022).Liketheintentionalityoftheall-Black castingoftheWakandans,theTalokan areallcastbyLatinxactorsandactresses, shiningaspotlightonLatinx-Futures.
IngrandMarvelStudiosʼbig-budget fashionandflankedbythetruebrilliance ofdirectorRyanCoogler,WakandaForever providesalloftheactionandcinematic splendorthatmovie-goershavecome toexpectfromthefranchise.However, justlikeBlackPantherof2018,Wakanda Foreverrevelsinitsopportunitytoshow
NOTES:
acaptiveaudiencethehistory,culture, beauty,diversity,intelligence,andrichness thatexistsinanAfricathatwasnever touchedbycolonization.Wakandans displayanagencythattranscendsthe ʻismsʼthathaveplaguedthenon-fiction diaspora.Thereareseveralthemes–subtleandnotsosubtle–throughoutthe filmthatʼsaclarioncallthroughoutthe
1 Vibraniumissoughtafterforitssuperstrengthandabilitytoabsorbvibrationsand kineticenergy.
diaspora.Only,notwithtrumpets,with drums.
TheMarvelCinematicUniverse(MCU) crossesdifferentgenres,includingcosmic sciencefiction,fantasy,mythology,period piece,andmanyothers(Goddard,2022). Alsoofnoteisthefilmʼsstrongcentralityin Afrofuturism.Afrofuturismisallatonce,“a waytodecodeblackliberationinacountry builtuponslavelabor”(Lavendar,2019),a midpointbetween“imagination,liberation, technology,andthefuture”(Womack,2013), anda“spiritualtechnologythatproduces knowledgebysystemicallyshowinghow thenon-physicalworldworksintandem withthematerialworldandbyapplying thisinformationforpracticalendssuch asfreedom”(Lavender,2019).Todescribe someofthethemesinWakandaForever, weborrowedfromanessay(republishedby CommonGood)thatAfrofuturistOctavia ButlerwroteforEssenceMagazinein2000.
LearningfromthePast
Butlerexplainshowsheanalyzesthe pasttoinformthefuturesshewritesabout.
Butler,O.(2000).Afewrulesforpredictingthefuture,CommonGoodCollective, https://tinyurl.com/mtwddk3h Goddard,M.(2022May),EveryMarvelCinematicUniversemoviebygenre,https:// wegotthiscovered.com/movies/every-marvel-cinematic-universe-movie-by-genre/
Sheexplainsthat“totrytoforetellthe futurewithoutstudyinghistoryislike tryingtolearntoreadwithoutbothering tolearnthealphabet.”Cooglerandhis teamcertainlydisplaymanyreferences toAfrican(andIndigenous)historiesthat otherwisewouldbeignored.Thisiswhy manyscholarshaveadaptedthemovieʼs themesintoeducationalcurricula. Fromtheritualsandceremoniesbased onactualtribaltraditions,clothing embellishedwithreferencestoregions fromNorthernandsub-Saharanareas. Cooglerandtheteammeticulously curatedaWakandanlanguageillustrated inthesubtitlesthatmorphfrom hieroglyphicsintoEnglishwordsandin utterancesofvariousAfricandialects. Thereʼsalsonoshortageoftechnical andscientificreferences,including genomics,physiology,andphysics. WhiletalesofWakandaʼshistoryare notexplicitlyutteredinthedialogue, referencestolittle-knownhistorical factsandartifactsprovidemany opportunitiesfortheworldtolearn moreaboutthecontinent,thosewho inhabitit,andthosewhoaredescended fromitbeyondtheslaverynarrative.
RespecttheLawofConsequences
AgainButlercautions,“Infact,Idonʼt believewecandoanythingatallwithout sideeffects–alsoknownasunintended consequences.Thoseconsequencesmay bebeneficialorharmful.”Thiscomment
harkensbacktotheoriginaldilemmafrom BlackPanther(2018)ofhowmuchtointeract withotherworldpowers.Asillustratedin thescenesattheUN,withCIADirector EverettRoss(MartinFreeman)inthe UnitedStates,andwiththeTalokanpeople, everyactionhasaconsequenceofequalor greaterimpact.EvenayoungMITstudent inthefilmtryingtomakeanamefor herselfasshehustlestostayinschooldoes notescapethefalloutfromherotherwise goodintentions.
BeAwareofYourPerspective
Inmanyways,themoviewasabout miningthroughemotions.Startingwith themourningofTʼChalla(andChadwick Boseman)tothegenerationaltrauma passedonfromtheancientMayans totheTalokanpeople,thecharacters wadethroughdeepemotionsand makebigdecisionsthatleadtoserious implicationsforWakanda.Butlerasks, “Howmanycombinationsofunintended consequencesandhumanreactions tothemdoesittaketodetourusintoa futurethatseemstodefyanyobvious trend?”Shethenanswers,“Notmany.” Thus,thestoryremindsusofthe importanceofself–andgroupreflection, systemsthinking,andconsideringmany possiblefuturesindecision-making.
CountonSurprises
ThestoryofWakandaForever(and BlackPantherbeforeit)revealsa placethat,despiteitsbesteffortsto protectitself,continuestofacethe threatofinvasionandexploitation foritsresources,justascountriesin present-dayAfricaexperience.As Butlerstates,“Nomatterhowhard wetrytoforeseethefuture,thereare alwaysthesesurprises.”Whatisofno surpriseisthatCooglerandMarvel Studioshavedeliveredyetanother cinematicmasterpiecefeaturinglayers ofnarrativestoberevealedanewwith eachsubsequentviewingofthemovie.
Thefinalthemewegleanedfrom WakandaForeveralsocontinuesfrom the2018BlackPanther,i.e.identity.This iswherethedrumsbeattheloudest.The refrainofidentityisechoedthroughout
themovieandcrescendoswithQueen Ramondaʼsremindertoherroyalchild, “Showhimwhoyouare!”Thismessageisnʼt justforthecharactersinWakandaForever, itʼsforallofus.Butlerconcludesheressay withareminderofwhydespiteamyriad ofuncertainties,engagingwithfuturesis anecessaryundertaking.
Because,mostofall,ourtomorrowis thechildofourtoday.Throughthought anddeed,weexertagreatdealof influenceoverthischild,eventhoughwe canʼtcontrolitabsolutely.Besttothink aboutit,though.Besttotrytoshapeit intosomethinggood.Besttodothatfor anychild.
Evenwhilelisteningtopopstar Rihannaʼssingle“LiftMeUp”asthefinal creditsscroll,WakandaForeverleavesus thinkingaboutourchildren.
THEAUTHORS
ZabrinaEpps,Ph.D.isaFuturesCoach andResearchFellowattheMarieFielder CenterforDemocracy,Leadership, andEducationatFieldingGraduate University,Contact:www.linkedin.com/in/ zabrina-epps
AlvinSchexniderisanemancipatory designer,Afrofuturist,andFounderofthe art&designcounter-studioGraffitiVersal aswellasSeniorEquityDesignStrategist atCapitalOne.Contact:https://www. linkedin.com/in/alvinschexnider
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/black-panther-wakanda-forever-blackhispanic-latinx-people-culture-similarities-160014942.html Womack,Y.(2013)Afrofuturism:Theworldofblacksci-fiandfantasyculture,Chicago, LawrenceHillBooks.
CLA3.0:THIRTYYEARS OFTRANSFORMATIVE RESEARCH
BookAnnouncement
By SohailInayatullah,RalphMercer, IvanaMilojevic&JohnASweeney CFAR,TAMKANGUNIVERSITY2022THECLAReaderwaspublishedin2004andcovered articlesoncausallayeredanalysisfrom1994-2004.CLA 2.0followedsuitin2015focusingonnewapplicationsin theoryandmethodology.CLA3.0celebratesthelastthirty yearsoftheoryandpractice;innovationandapplication.
Inthisvolume,theauthorsinvestigatevariedtopicssuchas conflict,educationandlearning,environmentandsustainability, economyandsociety,city,andscienceandtechnology.Thebook consistsoftwenty-sixchapterswrittenbyforty-sevenauthors.
Chaptertitlesinclude:
n CausalLayeredAnalysis:Theory,ConceptualFrameworkand Methods
n LivingBetweenMythandMetaphor
n RussianAggressionagainstUkraine:Past,Present,and Futures
n AustralianRiot:CausalLayeredAnalysisforConflict Resolution
n SchoolDistrictLeadersasAgentsofEquityandPublic EducationFutures
n Self-Writing:ACausalLayeredAnalysisProspectiveonthe LearningIdentityFramework
n CausalLayeredAnalysisofConstructionLabourProductivity inDevelopingCountries
n ApplyingFuturesBasedFrameworksforEmergingSector Investments
n FuturesImpactsofTheKingdomofSaudiArabia(KSA)
TransformingitsCitiestoCarbon
NegativeArcologies
n InsightsfromaCausalLayeredAnalysisof“Isfahan2040”
n UnderstandingtheFuturesofScience
n NotOrganicGardeningorRocketScience:NewMetaphors (andaPolitics)forgeoengineeredImaginaries
Authorsinclude:
Alongwithchaptersbytheeditors,SohailInayatullah, RalphMercer,IvanaMilojević,andJohnSweeney,contributing
authorsincludePaulaAdalyiza,OluseyiJuliusAdebowale, JustusNgalaAgumba,NoorahAlhasan,KasturiBehari-Leak, VitorBruno,MarcusBussey,NaliniChitanand,RussellClemens, JosephCorneli,AdamCowart,PhillipDaffara,MohsenTaheri Damneh,CharlesJ.Danoff,ZabrinaEpps,ElissaFarrow,Nele Fischer,RietaGanas,SirkkaHeinonen,JeanneHoffman,Marcelle Holdaway,PatriciaIribarne,SterlingJackson,AlirezaKarimi, CamilaLópez-Echagüe,SannaKetonen-Oksi,MarilaLázaro, KonstantinMarquardt,MattiMinkkinen,AlexMurphy,Maryam EbadiNejad,EdwardNiedbalski,MarjukkaParkkinen,Charlotte Pierce,RaymondS.Puzio,ChrisRiedy,DominiqueRumeau, ColinRusso,SiyaSabata,PeterScupelli,PetroSukhorolskyi,Veli Virmajoki,LeoVivier,andAliZackery.
n n n
PDF24.95audavailablefromwww.metafuture.org
Paperback49.95pluspostage.Bulkordersarepossible. Pleaseemailsinayatullah@gmail.com
IfinTaiwanforpaperback,pleasee-mailsochen@mail.tku. edu.twofCFAR.FormoreonCLA,gotocla.metafuture.org
ANTICIPATION2022
By ChristopherBurrJonesANTICIPATION 2022washeldonNovember16–18inthe
JulieAnnWrigleyGlobalFuturesLaboratorylocatedin theRobandMelaniWaltonCenterforPlanetaryHealthat ArizonaStateUniversityinTempe,Arizona.Thefourthinaseriesof globalanticipationconferences,previousconferenceswereheld inTrento,Italy(2015),London,England(2017)andOslo,Norway (2019).Thiswasahybridconference.OnNovember4,aroundthe-clocksessionswereheldvirtually.Over400individuals participatedintotal;closetohalfattendedface-to-faceinTempe. TheASUeventwasthefirstin-personconferenceformanysince thepandemic,whichgaveitaspeciallustre.
Itwasaneclecticgroupoffolksincludingtheanticipation studiescommunityandconferenceveterans,scienceand technologystudiesacademics,socialscientists,futurists,
historians,andASUfuturesfacultyandstudents.Anecdotally, mostparticipantsIspoketowereanticipationconference newbies.Morethanhalfofthein-personparticipantswerefrom outsidetheUS.Theplenarykeynotesandpanelswererelevant andprovocative.Concurrentpapersessionsandworkshops presentedaproblem,asusual,witharichanddiversesetof competingchoices—Imissedmanypresentationsbecauseof seriouscompetitionbetweendesirablesessions.Topicsranged widely:regenerativefutures,creativeanticipations,imaginaries (presentandfutures),storytelling,visioningandbackcasting,long/ deeptime,cyborgrelations,decolonizingfutures/anticipation, postnormaltimes,criticalfutures,cyberpunk,creativity(goodand bad),youth,governance,climatefutures,andmanyotherslicesof anticipationstudies.
MyCentreofPostnormalPolicyandFuturesStudies colleaguesWendySchultz,MayaVanLeemput,andIleda workshop/planninggameusingpostnormaltimeselements forwaterallocationsthrough2045ADandweeachalso presentedpapers(Wendy,“futuresaschaosattractors”; Maya,“polylogueforfuturesco-creation;me,“darksideof creativity”).ManyotherpastandcurrentWFSFmembers participated:FrankSpencer,RielMiller,StuartCandy,Nele Fischer,LydiaGarrido,JayneFleener,BruceTonn,Peter Bishop,andTanjaHichert…apologiestothosecurrent federationmembersthatImissed.
Formypart,itwasagoodmixofdisciplines,levelsof professionaldevelopment,interests,andclearconnectionsto futuresstudiesandforesight.Theconferenceitselfwaswell organized,staffwerehelpful,themealswereaboveaverage, andthevenueforeatingandsocializewasmostlyoutside intheinnercourtyardoftheWaltonCenter.Theclassrooms andauditoriumwere“stateoftheart.”Therewereexternal excursionsincludingadaylongoutingtoOracle,Arizonafora VIPtourofBiosphere2.
FutureAnticipationconferencesareslatedforLancaster, UK(2024)andTurin,Italy(2026).
“Imissedmany presentationsbecause ofseriouscompetition betweendesirable sessions”
UNESCOINAUGURAL WORLDFUTURESDAY -DECEMBER2,2022
Initsinauguralcelebration,WorldFuturesDayfocused on“InclusiveandResilientFutures”.HostedatUNESCO Headquarters,theDayspotlightedeffortsfromtheUNsystem anditsMemberStates,onnewvisionsformultilateralism andhowfuturesapproachesinforminclusiveandresilientpolicy design.Theeventprovidedanopportunityforinternational organizations,MemberStates,civilsocietyandnon-governmental actorsaliketocelebratenewwaystousethefuture.
UNESCOencouragesthedisseminationoffuturesliteracyas acapability-basedapproachtodevelopment–askillaccessible toeachandeveryindividual.Findingandimplementingmore sustainableandparticipatoryapproachestodevelopmentinthis decadewillbekeytoensuringeffectiveandinclusivedecisionmakingworldwide.Takinganinterdisciplinary,intergenerational andcomplexsystemsapproach,themesforWFD2022included:
OurCommonFuture–howandwhytheUNCommonAgenda isfocusedonfuturesandanticipatoryapproaches;
FutureGenerations–theimportanceofactivelyengagingwith futuresandanticipatoryapproachesfortheresilienceoffuture generationsandintergenerationalequity;
PlanetaryResilience–howfuturesandanticipatoryapproaches canenablegreaterplanetaryresilience;
SocioeconomicTransformationandInclusiveSocieties–how futuresandanticipatoryapproachescancontributetoamore inclusiveandequitableworld.
TheMessagefromtheUNESCODirector-GeneralMsAudrey AzoulaystatedthatwhentheMemberStatesofUNESCO adoptedaresolutiontoestablishWorldFuturesDay,theywere underscoringtheimportanceofimaginingandanticipatingwhat thefuturecouldlooklikeinordertobuildmoreinclusive andmorebalancedsocietiestogether.Thiswasthecase, forexample,in1997,whenUNESCOadoptedtheUniversal DeclarationontheHumanGenomeandHumanRights,orin
2021,whenweadoptedtheRecommendationontheEthicsof ArtificialIntelligence.Mostrecently,shestated,theTransforming EducationSummit,heldinNewYorkandbasedonaFuturesof Educationreport,servedasyetanotherexampleofsuchfarsightedaction.AsCanadiannovelistStevenEriksonhaswritten, “thefuturecaneverpromisebutonethingandonethingonly: surprises”.Shenotesthatisusourresponsibilitytoseetoitthat thesesurprisesarenotunpleasantones.Thus,toinaugurate WorldFuturesDay,UNESCOcallsonallitsMemberStatesand alltheworldʼssocietiestousetheirimagination,toexplorethe possibilities,andsoto“free”thepresent.
“Wearelivinginincreasinglycomplextimesmarkedby profoundexistentialchanges.Andwehaveoftenbeenlatein comingtogripswiththem.Inordertoavoidsuccumbingtoa bleakfuturewemustre-examinehowwethinkaboutthepresent, unleashingthepowerofourimaginationsothatwecan seizeeveryopportunityavailabletous.Futuresliteracyisentirely inkeepingwithUNESCOʼsroleastheUnitedNationsʼlaboratory ofideas.Openingourmindsandthinkingabouttomorrow–and boththeriskandthepromisewhichcomewithit–are exactlywhattheOrganizationʼsfuturesliteracyprogrammeisall about.Withfuturesliteracywearefosteringanapproachwhich
canserveasapowerfultoolforinnovationandtransformation; weareencouragingaperspectiveonthefuturewhichisrooted inhumanityʼsdiversityofknowledge,humanityʼsdiversecultures andhumanityʼsdiverseworldviews.Weareworkingsteadily throughouttheworld,organizingmorethan100workshops–or “laboratories”-andcollaboratingwiththeresearcherswhoare partofthe37UNESCOChairswhichhelptodevelopandspread thisapproach.Weareshakingup–“freeing”,ifyouwill–thefuture inpursuitofaprimeobjective:amoreeffectiveresponsetothe greatchallengesofourtime.Thinkingaboutthefuturethisway allowsustotakeanticipatoryactionwithgreaterclarity.
PROGNOSIS
ATALEOFMULTIPLEX FUTURES:THISISA DIALOGUEINTHE MAKING
THISisashorttranscriptofafuturesconversation betweenClaireNelson,Editor-At-LargeandRalph Mercer,ManagingEditor.Thistypeofconversation happensonmostofourcallsandrarelymakesitinto print.Wedecideditwastimetomaketranscriptionsofour off-the-cuffconversation.Enjoyandpleasecommentandjoin ourconversation.
NELSON: Itwasthebestoftimes;itwastheworstoftimes.The futureswewouldhavewantedwerenolongeronanyofthethree horizons,andthefutureswewantedwereburiedinalitanyof conjunctiveoptimismandconspiracytheories.Afuturistʼstaleis basedonmakingsenseofthetrendsandsignalsemergingacross lifeʼslandscape.Sowhattrendsandsignalsshouldwebelooking atfor2023?
MERCER: BeforeIspeaktothat,IthinkthatsomeFuturists areoverlyreliantonexploitingtrends,signalsanddataand seemunwillingtoconsideralternatefuturesthatdonotfall intothesweetspotofplausiblefutures.Theygravitatetowards connectingthedotsratherthandecidingwherethedotsshould beplaced.Thisrelianceanchorsfuturestoincrementalandlinear possibilities.
NELSON: Whatdoyoumeanwherethedotsshouldbe placed?Arethedotsnotalreadythere,andisitnotthatwehave tolookforthem?Or,astheBiblemaysay,havetheeyestosee andtheearstohear?So,arewetheonesplacingthedots?
MERCER: Thefutureisacollectionofchoices;weare constrainedbythechoicesmadeinthepastandresponsiblefor
thechoiceswemakeinthepresent,limitingthechoicesavailable tousinthefuture.
MERCER: Using“placingtheDots”asametaphorforaccepting fullresponsibilityforouractions,italsoencouragesustodecenter ourselvesashumansastheunitofmeasurementofagoodfuture. Itallowsustoresistthetyrannyofcommonsense,thedoctrines ofpastsocialcontrols(education,politicalandfaith-based)and plausiblefutures.
NELSON: Iwouldagreethatthefutureisacollectionof choices.Weareherelivinginthisversionofthefutureimagined bysomeoneyearsandyearsago.ButIwouldarguethatto saythatwearenowlimitedinthechoiceswemaketoday isratherlimited.Wearestillboundbythelawsofgravity, thermodynamics,trafficlaws,andallthat,butthatisthereality oflife.Wearenotlivinganimaginarylife.Wearelivingan imaginedlife.
MERCER: Itisourimaginationthatneedstobefreedfromthe limitationsofthehuman-centred(humanism,enlightenment, capitalist)mindset.Thefuturewillnotandprobablyshouldnot alwaysbebetterforhumans,butitalwaysshouldbebetterfor theplanet.
NELSON: Well,I,forone,wouldagreethatMotherEarthis gettingtothepointwhereshemightjustexterminateusinorder tosurvive.Yes,Ididsayexterminate.ButIamwonderingifwe arenotgettingitbackwards.Doestheplanethaveafuturethat isnotcircumscribedbyhumans?Iʼmaskingthequestionifatree
fallsintheforestandnohumanisaround,doesitmakeasound?
MERCER: wehavetostopthebinaryapproach.Itisnot eitheror/humanorothers.Itisthematuritytounderstandthat sometimestheless-than-humanormore-than-humanneed tobethefocusofourfutureplanning.Humansdonothave sovereigntyovertheplanet,anditsresourceisnotexclusivelyin supportofthehumandestructionoftheplanet.
NELSON: Iaminagreementthere.Manyindigenouscultures livebytheethos-webelongtotheplanet,buttheplanetdoes notbelongtous.Iamnowakeenproponentoftakingitone stepfurtherinthiseraofspaceexploration,andthecosmosdo notbelongtous–webelongtothecosmos.Buttocomeback downtoEarth,Iagreeweneedathirdway.Thatiswhyinmy theoryofSMARTFuturesdesignasaframeworkfordesigning futuresofflourishing,Ispeaktotheneedforustomovetowards metricsthatmatter.MeaningfulMetrics.MoralMetrics.Butthat presupposesthatwhatisʻMeaningfulʼandʻMoralʼisthesame acrosscultures.Moreover,weallagreethattheplanetʼshealthisa necessaryandsufficientconditionforoursurvivalandourtribal.I haveassumedthatwehumansallhavethesamecommonsense understandingaboutourinterdependence.Youspokeearlier aboutthetyrannyofcommonsense.Whatdoyoumean?Help meunderstandyourperspectiveaboutthedoctrinesofpast socialcontrolsthatneedtobeunshackled.Ihavemyviewsabout theneedtodecolonizethefuture.Butletmehearyours.
MERCER: Claire,thereisalottounpackinyourquestion;Ithink theplacetostartistoask,whatifthecolonizationofthefuture,
asyouputit,isourcommonsense?Iframethe meaningofcommonsenseinthisdiscussionto meanbehaviours,actionsandbeliefsthatare consideredacceptable,expected,andplausible. Commonsensethenbecomesinculcatedin personsintheformoflastingdispositionsor structuredtendenciestothink,feelandact (choose)indeterminantways.
MERCER: Thepersonalitiesandstructured tendencies,unconsciouslyacquiredbyindividuals throughexperienceandsocializationwhen practicedcollectively,becometheworldviews andmetaphorsofsocialnormsandexpectations, eventuallybecomingembodiedinourchoices. ThetyrannyImentionedisaneedtounderstand thatthesignals,data,images,andprocesses employedinconstructingplausiblefutures areproductsofourchoices.Ourbeliefsand assumptionbecometheweightofhistorythat createsthestructuresofourpresentchoicesand ultimatelyconstrainsthepossibilitiesoftruly alternativeFutures.
MERCER: Supposemoralsareaccepted standardsofbehaviourthatenablepeopleto functioninaparticularsocietyorgroup.Thenit isessentialtounderstandthecultural,social,and structuralformationthatcreatesthechoices, moralorotherwise.Again,metricsfindand connectthedots.
MERCER: To“placethedots,”orinyourwords, decolonize,istodeconstructandmakevisible,if youwish,whatshapesourchoices,whatarethe narratives,structures,worldviewsandarchetypical storiesandmetaphorsthatframeindividualand collectivechoices.
MERCER: Someoneoncesaidthattofix something,youfirstmustunderstandit;using this,Iarguethatifwewanttofindalternative futures,wefirstmustunderstandwhatmakesa futureplausible,desirableandacceptable.
NELSON: Onthatnote,Iwouldsaywecan agree.Weneedtounderstandbetterwhatmakes afutureplausible,desirableandacceptable,so maythatbethethingwewatchforin2023.Deeper Understanding.AstheAustralianaboriginalssay: “Thestoriesofthepastmustbesungintothe presentinorderforthefuturetoexist.”
TECHNICAL NOTES
SIMULATION-BASED LEARNINGFOR PUBLICPOLICY
By DanielSilva,CSPIMAGINEaworldwheretheexplorativeaspectofsolving globalchallenges,anticipatingoutcomes,evaluating scenarios,andmitigatingriskisavailablethroughtheform ofagame.Thatimaginationtakesustotheworldofgaming andsimulation.
PublicPolicysimulationsalsocalledsimsarebeingdeveloped bytheSeriousGamesindustrytoassistgovernmentsinmaking intelligentdecisions,scenarioplanning,andriskmitigation toensureeffectiveprogramoutcomes.Thesesimulations
areincludedinworkshopsandinviteparticipantstorole-play scenariostobetterunderstandfutureimpactsandtomake decisionsaboutplausibleFuturesinacontrolled,risk-free environment-playerscanrepurposeandreallocateresources, whetherfunding,technology,physicalinfrastructure,or personnel.Itoffersthefuture-proofingofissueswhiletestingthe strengthsandweaknessesofpolicyorstrategy.TheGlobalmarket sizeofsimulation-basedlearningforthepublicsectorwillreach $12billionby2027.
Imagineabillion-dollarprogramwithdefined outcomesevaluatedthroughscenariosbeforea singledollarisspent.Thesesimulationsaredesigned notonlyasanexperientialeducationaltoolfor addressingpublicpolicyissuesbutalsoinclude importantcontemporaryissuessuchasmigration, sustainability,capandtrade,housingpolicyand equity,andmanagingpublichealthemergencies. Throughplayer-selectedrolessuchastheprime minister,financeminister,internationalorganization representativeandothers,usersfosterabetter understandingoftheresponsibility,constraints,and challengesinachievingconsensusintheirroles.Built usingreal-worlddata,thesesimsallowpractitioners inboththepublicsector,non-profitsaswellas studentsofpublicpolicytovisualizetheresultof theirdecisionsandtohoneskillssuchasleadership, negotiation,teamwork,andcrisismanagement.
Thesimulationsaredevelopedincollaboration withuniversitiesthathaveaspecializedpublicpolicy, affairs,andadministrationprograms.Theirfacultyand studentsreviewthesimulationsandprovidedesign
andupgraderecommendationstoallowthesimstomeetthe needsofanactualoraspiringpublicpolicypractitioner.
Howdotheywork?
Thesimulationsplaceteamsoffiveparticipantsthrough roleplayinchargeoftheircountryʼsdecision-makingand policydevelopment.Oneofthesimulationsfocuseson PandemicManagement.Itallowsuserstoevaluatepublic healthpoliciesagainsteconomicimpactsassociatedwith thespreadofadeadlyinfectiousdiseaseintheirregion. Soundfamiliar?Participantsthroughtheirrespective rolesaretaskedwithmanagingthepublichealthoftheir population,againsttheeconomicimpactaswellasthe effectsoftheirdecisionsonpublicopinion.Theyarefaced withpolicydecisionsonthedistributionoftestkits,and vaccinesaswellasdeterminingwhoamongtheirpopulation shouldreceiveitfirst.Theyevaluateeconomicstabilization optionssuchasstimulus,appropriatetimingofmessaging totheircitizensonwhentodeclareastateofemergency andotherimpactssuchasborderrestrictionsandmitigation measurestocontrolthespreadwithintheircountry.Thesim
isdesignedforeconomiesofcountriestobeinterconnected, soadecisioninonecountryaffectstherest.Ittests participantsʼabilitytohandlesocialdilemmasinstressful circumstancesandputsparticipantsintheactorʼsroleof leadership.Thesimulationisrunusingacountdownclock, withdataonthespreadofthediseaseupdatingregularly. Thiscreatespressureandprovidesaspaceforpracticein crisismanagementandgroupdecision-makingaswellas conciliatorycompromise.
Thesimulationallowsparticipantstoviewstatisticssuchas positivecases,deaths,vaccinestockmanagement,budget, hospitalcapacity,andtheresultofpopularopinionon governmentpolicies.Thedeterministicsystemdynamics modelonwhichthegamerunsincludeseffectssuchas publicresistancetomitigationmeasuresandcross-border impacts.Instructorscansetthesimulationtodifferenttime periodsinpredeterminedtimeframes.Theimpactofrelations withneighbouringcountriesaswellastheimpactoftheir decisionsagainstthemortalityrateisbuiltin.
Simulation-basedlearningplatformsforpublic policycontinuetohaveextensivedevelopmentupdates.
Thosesimsallowgovernmentsdealingwithdisruptionor strategicplanningtomaintainadualfocus,managingexisting operationsontheonehandwhileexploringwaystoimprove futureresponses.Afocusonhuman-centricdecision-making againstmachinelearning-generatedscenariosandenhanced datavisualizationarepartofthenextroundofupdates.
AmongothersimulationsofferedincludeHostNationsthat focusoninternationalnegotiation,leadership,consensus building,trade-offs,long-termimpactsofimmigrationpolicy, asylum/refugeepolicyandeconomicpolicies.
MetropolitanCitiesisanothersimulationthatfocuseson multi-partynegotiation,distributiveandintegrativeissues, municipal-leveltransitpolicy,sustainableplanning,housing affordability/gentrification,andpublic-privatepartnerships. OthertopicsbeingdevelopedincludeHousingPolicyand Equity,SustainableEnergySimulation,CapandTrade,AnticorruptionandTransparency,ArmscontrolandProliferation, OceanandPolarAffairs,Cybersecurityamongothers.
Youcanfindmoredetailsat:www.dms.academyDMS Academy–GovernanceForesightProgram,PublicPolicy Simulations
WFSF HAPPENING
AVIEWOFTHE FUTUREFROM DUBAIIN2022
By LeopoldP.Mureithi Co-Chair,TheMillenniumProjectKenyaNodeTHEDubaiFutureFoundationorganizedtheinaugural DubaiFutureForumfrom10to12October2022atthe newiconicMuseumoftheFuture(MOTF).
Heregatheredsome“400experts,70speakers,1,000 attendeesand45leadinginstitutionstoexploremyriadtopics, includingspacetravel,climatechange,digitalinclusion,ethical artificialintelligenceandpreparingforthefuture.”(DubaiFuture ForumConcludes,SettingPathwayforaPromisingFuture— DubaiFutureFoundation).
AsbackgroundreadingfortheForum,theFoundationissued a166-pagedocumenttitledTheGlobal50FutureOpportunities Report.Thesefiftycover“thebreadthofhumanexperience andourrelationshipwithourenvironment,spanningenergy, communications,health,medicine,governance,ecology, education,cultureandbusiness.Theyrangefromuniversal accesstoenergytoevolveddigitalandimmersiverealities,from machine-runcompaniestoadvancesinmedicalscreeningthat promisetodramaticallyreducetheburdenofdisease”(p.8).
Theglobalforumexploredtheseandrelatedissuesby focusingonfourthemes:TheFutureofourWorld;Valueand Humanity;MitigatingExistentialRiskthroughForesight;and HedgingourBetsthroughForesight.Therewerekeynotes, power-pointpresentations,one-on-oneinterviews,expertpanel discussions,andparallelworkshopsaroundthesetopics–atwodaypackofactivitiesinarelaxingatmosphere.
TheForumprovidedphysicalnetworkingopportunities,amost welcomeopportunity,particularlyforthosewhohavepreviously metonlyincyberspaceandconsideringthelongcavernous existenceforcedonhumankindbytheCOVID-19pandemic.
SomeTakeawaysandInsights
“Thefuturecanbeimagined,designedandexecuted,”His HighnessSheikhMohammedbinRashidAlMaktoum,Vice
PresidentandPrimeMinisteroftheUnitedArabEmirates(UAE) andRulerofDubai:DubaiFutureForumtoWelcome400Experts atWorldʼsLargestGatheringofFuturistsKick-startingTomorrow —DubaiFutureFoundation.
n Thereisaneedtorethinklaw-makingmodels,whichare currentlyrunningfarbehindrapidtechnologicalprogress.We needtobecomemoreagileandproactiveingoverningartificial intelligence,nowmovingtowardssentienceandself-prompting.
n Thespaceindustryhasseenalotofresearchonhowto terraformotherplanetstomakethemfitforhumancolonisation andsourcesofresources.Neglectingtheearthandcouldsimply galacticallyspreadplanetearthʼsAnthropocenemisadventure.
n Solarenergyandhydrogenextractedfromseawaterwill createaneweraofrenewableenergy,providedsomeconstraints
canbeovercome,suchascheapwaystocatalysewater.
n Technologicalprogresswillbemeasuredinseconds,and Informationcostswillplummet.
n Thefocusofwealthinthefuturewillbeknowledge,not materialpossessions.
n Wehavetofacesquarelythecrisisofdemocracy characterisedbytrustdeficit,andtheprospectoffuturepolitibots addingtotheconfusion.Multiple-andinter-generational perspectivesarecalledfor.AttendingtheForumwasSophie Howe,futuregenerationscommissionerforWales,thefirst countryintheworldtohavesuchanagency.Itisimportant toinstitutionalizeparliamentarycommitteesonthefuture pioneeredbyFinlandandministriesforthefutureproposedby KimStanleyRobinsoninabookofasimilartitlepublishedin2020.
n Whoownsthefuture?Colonizingthefutureposesareal threattoparticipationandequity,justasitwasinthepastand thepresent;experientialfuturesisalivingtestimonytothis phenomenon.
n Datacanbeusedforgoodorneutrallywithrespectto persons.ButthedangerofOrwelliansurveillancecapitalismin themisuse,abuse,andcommercializationofpersonalinformation surreptitiouslyisarealthreat,borderingonexistential.
n Theimplicationofnow-ismandshort-termismdenies businesses,societies,andgovernmentstheopportunitytomake decisionsthatpromotesustainabledevelopment,whichisin everyoneʼsbestinterest.
n Humanlongevityandthedeathofdeath;Advancesin genetics,genomics,medicalresearch,andhealthcarehave lengthenedhumanlifeexpectancy.Thistrendcouldreachthe longevityescapevelocity,makingold-age-relatednaturaldeath extinct,leavingitasamereoption.
Theimportanceofdevelopingforesightcapacityateverylevel cannotbeoverstatedasapowerfultoolfor“unveilingstrategic pathways;enablingsocietiestoflourish,economiestogrow, countriestothrive,andhumankindtoprosper.”VictorVahidi
Source:DubaiPrivateTours|OurSpectacularDubai(alexanderroberts.com)
Mottigivesadefinitivestatementtothiseffectinhisemailof31st October2022tomembersoftheWFSF:“Effectivefuturesstudies couldchangethecourseofworldhistory.”
WhatʼsinaName?
Inthefuturistsʼlexicon,thefutureisseenasaplurality --manyfutures,notjustone.But,whenfuturesbecome foresight,andapreferredfutureispinneddown,thefocuson onefuturetoactualizeispossible,thoughuncertaintyasto itsexactreificationremainssincethisisintrinsicinallthings future.Inthiscontext,oneappreciatesthelackofansinthe nameofDubaiFutureFoundationanditsannualevent,the DubaiFutureForum.Instead,thefutureofDubaiandthe instrumentalizationofitsnear-miraculousdevelopmentis identifiedinanddrivenbyamagnumopusofHisHighness SheikhMohammedbinRashidAlMaktoum,namelyMyVision:
ChallengesintheRaceforExcellence.
Canthisone-futureviewbesaidofthenewkidon theblock,namelyGlobalFutureFoundation(GFS)? DubaiFutureFoundationsignedaMemorandumof Understanding(MoU)withtheWorldFuturesStudies Federation(WFSF),PublicSectorForesightNetwork (PSFN),TheMillenniumProject(TMP),andthe AssociationofProfessionalFuturists(APF)toestablish GFStodefinepathwaysforfuturecollaboration,joint research,andknowledge-sharingopportunities.This MOUwillfillthevacuumleftbythefadingoutof WorldFutureSociety(WFS).Beingheadquarteredatthe MuseumoftheFuture,GFSwillestablishDubaiasthe homefortheworldʼsfuturistsandvisionaries.
AtasessionofTheMillenniumProjectPlanning Committee(TMP-PC),Iaskedatrivialquestiononwhat thenameDubaimeansinliteralterms.Inhisreply, MuhammadAlmheiri,TMPDubaiChair,indicatedthat thenameʼsrootisFrenchdeuxbaie,meaning“twobays,” Romanized(Wikipedia)asDubayy.
Betweenthosetwobays,inthevicinityofthenarrow StraitofHormuz,thefutureishappeninginrealtime.
FinalObservation
The2022DubaiFutureForumwasheavyontechnological andeconomicspaces,notsomuchonotherhuman domains–likethesocialandcultural--thatcouldcausallaytherest.Suchgapsinsystemiccomplexitycouldbe addressedinfutureforumsonsustainablefutures.Inthis,the symbolismofthemuseumstructureistelling.Itsovalshape representshumanity.Thecentreofthebuilding,locatedat approximatelythecentreoftheCityofDubai,isanoculus. Doesthatepitomizeanall-see-througheye,atreasuretrove ofunknowns,oragravitationalblackhole?Thefuturecould beamélangéofalltheseandmore.
AFTERMOST
AFTERMOST: 2022INREVIEW
Co-authoredby RalphMercer, ChatGPTandGrammarlyONE oftheconstantthemesinHumanFuturesthisyear hasbeentomaketheʻfuturesfieldʼmoreaccessible andstructuredthroughfuturesliteracy.Ourlistserverʼs articlesandemailtraffichavealsohighlightedthat thegatesarecrumblingintheoldinstitutions;truth,science, democracies,universities,andinclusiveness.Unfortunately,the solutionshavepolarizedemailtrafficinthosewhoseethefutureas arichdomainofthepostqualitativeinvestigationsandthosewho quantitativelyplotacourseintothefuturebasedonsocialdata.For themostpart,therichdiscussionhasgoneunrecordedwithinthe coversoftheHumanFuturesMagazine,whichisapity.Collectively, thecontributionstothemagazinereverberatewiththediversity offuturistpractices,showcasingthedepthofprofessionalism andexperiencethatisthecoreelementoftheWFSF.TheHuman Futuresmagazinein2023willencourageustochallengethe comfortableandacceptableandtolookatthingsinnewways.
Thefuturemostpeopleontheplanetlivewithisaproductof thecollectivenarrativeofdominantinfluencersandthelimited involvementofthepopulation,eitherthroughlackofagencyor inattention.Itisafuturethatfollowsthepathofleastresistance, whereweconsiderlivingwith;covid,climatechange,political corruption,inflation,fakenews,andconflictasthenewnormal.
Narrativesabouttheimpactoftechnologyonourlives,jobs, privacy,andsocialfabricthatenvisionutopiananddystopian futuresweavethroughtheimagesofthefuturewewantinequal measure.Thelayersofdominantnarratives,structuresandcore beliefsallworktodisempowerandgivetheillusionoflimited personalagency.
JacquesRancièreʼsphilosophysuggeststhatfictionisnot removedfromrealitybutinsteadsaturatedbyit.Fictioncan challengerealitytobendandtransformitself,creatingfriction thatcanshapethefuture.Theʻfuturesʼisaboutcreatinga plausibleimageofthefutureandchallengingwhatiscomfortable andaccepted.Thismeansquestioningourhumanistictendencies andrecognizingthattechnologyisessentialforenvisioningany possiblefuture.Ithelpsusunderstandhowtechnologycanbe usedforgoodandshapeourfuture.Weneedtobeconsciousof ourrelationshipwithtechnologytodevelopsocietyʼsconceptof anacceptableimageofthehuman.Itisalsoessentialtochallenge thecomfortablefuturesthatareoftenacceptedandinsteadlook formorerebelliousapproaches.
Futuresgroundedinhumanismareaboutcreatinga plausibleimageofthefuturethatisachievableand“justa matterofcommonsense.”Ourcomfortable,measurable, “well-laidplans”cannotshapethefuture;commonsense isthecorrosivesafegroundthatworkstostifleandresist change.Myongoingobservationspointtothetendencyof individualstodisempowerthemselvesinthefaceofofficial data.Self-interesthasbecomeasurvivalskillinsulatingpeople fromchoicesthatnegativelyaffecttheirqualityoflife.The separationofhumansfromtheirworldandtheexploitation
oftheplanetasaresourcedamagesourenvironment.Itturns ablindeyetoourresponsibilityforthedamagewecreateto societyandtheearth.
Thereisnodoubtweareinatransitorymoment;weare witnessingthedeathofmanyoftheorthodoxiesthatheldthe fabricofsocietiestogether.Futuristsneedtoconsiderthatthe boundarybetweentheusedfutureandthefutureweneedis primarilydefinedbypowerandprivilegewhileprovidingasafe momenttohelpindividualsallowthemselvespermissionto hopeandseeabolderdisruptivefuturethatexcitesthem.
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