World Agriculture Vol.1 No.1 (Spring 2010)

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editorial World Agriculture Editorial Board Patron Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG, KCVO Chairman Professor Sir Colin Spedding CBE, MSc, PhD, DSc, CBiol, Hon FSB, FRASE, FIHort, FRAgS, FRSA, Hon Assoc RCVS, Hon DSc (Reading). Agriculturalist Deputy Chairman & Editor Dr David Frape BSc, PhD, PG Dip Agric, CBiol, FSB, FRCPath, RNutr.

Mammalian physiologist Assistant Editors Robert Cook BSc, CBiol, MSB, ARAgS. Plant pathologist and agronomist Ben Aldiss BSc, PhD, CBiol, MSB, FRES. Ecologist Members of the Editorial Board Professor Phil Brookes BSc, PhD, DSc. Soil microbial ecologist Andrew Challinor BSc, PhD. Agricultural Meteorologist Professor Paul Jarvis FRS, FRSE, FRSwedish Soc. Agric. & Forestry Silviculturalist Professor Brian Kerry MBE, BSc, PhD Soil microbial ecologist Professor Sir John Marsh CBE, MA, PG Dip Ag Econ, CBiol, FSB, FRASE, FRAgS Agricultural economist Professor Ian McConnell BVMS, MRVS, MA, PhD, FRCPath, FRSE. Animal immunologist Christabel Peacock BSc, PhD, FRSA, ARAgS Tropical Agriculturalist Professor Randolph Richards MA, VetMB, PhD, MRCVS, FSB, FRSM, ARAgS Aquaculturalist Roger Turner BSc PhD, MBPR. Agronomist Professor John Snape BSc PhD Crop geneticist

Published by Wharncliffe Publishing, 47 Church Street, Barnsley, South Yorkshire S70 2AS

Advisor to the board John Bingham CBE, FRS, FRASE, ScD Crop geneticist Editorial Assistants Ms Sofie Aldiss BSc Michael J.C. Crouch BSc Rob Coleman MSc WORLD AGRICULTURE

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contents

In this Issue ...

Editorials Around the World in 80 countries Africa and Agriculture

Dr David Frape Professor Sir Colin Spedding

Economic and Social: Is Agricultural Development Still Relevant For Sub-Saharan Africa?

Professor Peter Hazell, Visiting professor, Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Permanent address: Fallowfield, Westwell, Ashford, Kent, TN25 4LQ, U.K. Developing Contract Farming Systems in Uganda Dr Wilberforce Kisamba-Mugerwa and Terefe Ademetegn Lemma. Director for International Service for National Agricultural Research Division, IFPRI. Senior Research Analyst for International Service for National Agricultural Research Division, IFPRI

Scientific: Soil Phosphorus – from Feast to Famine Professor Phil Brookes, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, UK; Professor Qimei Lin, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China; Dr. George Ayaga, Kenyan Agricultural Reseach Institute, Kenya; Professor Jinshui Wu, Institute for Agricultural Modernisation, Changsha, China Fish from Africa for Africa: Shifting supplies from fishing to fish farming Professor Rana, Sankoh S., Madalla, N., Salie, K , Institute of Aquaculture, Stirling University, University of Stellenbosch. Corresponding author: kjr3@stir.ac.uk

Book Reviews: The Royal Society: Sustainable Agriculture Dr David Frape Royal Society Publishing <publishing.royalsociety.org> 6-9 Carelton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AG, UK. ISBN: 978-0-85403-661-5

Publisherâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Disclaimer No responsibility is assumed by the Publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein.

Although all advertising material is expected to conform to ethical standards, inclusion in this publication does not constitute a guarantee, or endorsement of the quality or value of such product by the Publisher, or of the claims made by the manufacturer.

Instructions to contributors Forthcoming articles

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World Agriculture: A peer-reviewed, scientific review journal directed towards opinion formers, decision makers, policy makers and farmers

objectives and functions of the Journal The Journal will publish articles giving clear, unbiased and factual accounts of development in, or affecting, world agriculture. Articles will interpret the influence of related subjects (including climate, forestry, fisheries and human population, economics, transmissible disease, ecology) on these developments. Fully referenced, and reviewed, articles by scientists, economists and technologists will be included with editorial comment. Furthermore, a section for “Opinion & Comment” allows skilled individuals with considerable experience to express views with a rational basis that are argued logically.

References to papers that have been subject to peer-review will not be mandatory for this section. From time to time the Editor will invite individuals to prepare articles on important subjects of topical and international concern for publication in the Journal.

Articles will be independently refereed. Each article must create interest in the reader, pose a challenge to conventional thought and create discussion. Each will: 1) Explain likely consequences of the directions that policy, or development, is taking. This will include interactive effects of climate change, population growth and distribution, economic and social factors, food supplies, transmissible disease evolution, oceanic changes and forest cover. Opinion, in the “Opinion & Comment” Section must be based on sound deductions and indicated as such. Thus, an important objective is to assist decision-makers and to influence policies and methods that ensure development is evidence-based and proceeds in a more “sustainable” way. Without a clear understanding of the economic causes of the different rates of agricultural development in developing and developed countries and of migration rates between continents rational policies may not be developed. Hence, the role of economics must be understood and contribute an important part in the discussion of all subjects.

2) Provide independent and objective guidance to encourage the adoption of technical innovations and new knowledge.

3) Discourage false short-sighted policies and loose terminology, e.g. “organic”, “genetically modified”, “basic”, “sustainable”, “progress” and encourage informed comment on policies of governments and NGOs. 4) Indicate the essential role of wild-life and climate, not only in the context of agricultural and forestry development, but by maintaining environmental balance, to ensure the sustenance and enjoyment of all.

5) Summarise specific issues and draw objective conclusions concerning the way agriculture should develop and respond in the location/region of each enterprise, to evolving factors that inevitably affect development.

6) Promote expertise, for advising on world agricultural development and related subjects.

7) Allow interested readers to comment by “Letters to the Editor” and by “Opinion & Comment” columns.

8) Provide book and report reviews of selected works of major significance.

9) To include a wide range of commercial advertisements and personal advertisements from advisors and consultant groups.

Near drought conditions challenge spring soybean crops. (Glycine max)

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editorials

Around the world in 80 countries he world faces global agricultural problems with a rising human population, increased consumption per capita and climate change. The growth in agricultural yields during the 20th century was associated with intensive experimentation, that should continue, and increased fossil fuel use that should not. Agriculture has been a net producer of greenhouse gases, whereas forested areas, acting as a major carbon sink are being destroyed to be replaced by agricultural crops and an increased urban sprawl. Food production needs to increase without increasing greenhouse gas output. The production should be adequate to accommodate both a population increase and overcome an existing under-nourishment of millions, associated with poor immunity to infection and high neonatal mortality.

The roles of food storage, distribution and economics are a vital part of this problem.

independent assessments of ways forward. This will be achieved through the words of many authoritative individuals who have examined specific problems in detail. These assessments should provide some guidance to decision-makers who can be individual farmers, regional advisors or national and international policy makers and many others.

We invite individuals to make literary contributions to World Agriculture (see Directions to Contributors, this Issue).

The journal has the unique purpose of interpreting scientific and economic information for non-professionals and giving unbiased, objective,

Editorials, Scientific; Economic & Social; Opinion & Comment; Letters to the Editor and Book Reviews

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It is our plan that the journal will be available to people “on the ground” in both developing and “western” countries – in a minimum of eighty countries. The objective interpretations will be in plain language, so that they are comprehensible to individuals who do not have scientific or economic training. All literary contributions will be carefully reviewed before acceptance or rejection, as the reliability of our statements is of utmost importance. The criteria we adopt in reviewing differ for each section of the journal. The sections are:

Individuals with well-established opinions will be invited to state their

case in our Opinion & Comment columns. With important developments, e.g. GMs, our aim, as a completely independent journal, will be to give a balanced assessment of their value in specific situations, as opposed to the broad generalisations of protagonists and antagonists that have little value to an end-user. For the sake of brevity in the modern world there are too many such unjustifiable generalisations, where the truth often lies in the detail.

Some of the areas of interest over which we intend to provide reviews and assessments are: (1) Development of Agricultural infrastructure of developing countries and the relationship of those countries to world economies.

(2) Technological innovation in developing countries.

(3) Subsidies, world trade and food production.

(4) Biofuels – the net value of different types, effects on food production, carbon balance and their economic worth v. fossil fuels.

(5) Agro-forestry. windmill in canola field

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near drought conditions challenge spring soybean crops. (Glycine max)

(6) Genetic modification (GM) of crops and animals?

(7) Organic food production-what is it?

(8) Fish farming, its role in developing & developed countries.

(9) The effect of climate on oceanic food chains and wild fish stocks.

(10) The effect of agriculture & forestry on the greenhouse gas cycle.

(11) Transmissible disease control in crops and animals and of zoonotic diseases.

(12) The different roles of livestock farming in developing & developed countries.

(13) The importance of a diverse world ecology and areas of wild life.

(14) Human population growth and migration â&#x20AC;&#x201C; its social and economic implications.

(15) Soil erosion, soil quality and as a

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carbon sink.

(16) Fresh water scarcity, drainage, storage and flooding.

The complexity of issues we shall cover is exemplified by the expected effects of climate change on world population and agricultural production.

In relation to (10) above: since the industrial revolution there has been a 33 per cent rise in atmospheric CO2 and a 100 per cent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) (RSC 2005).

Of the total emissions agriculture and land use generally contribute a massive one third. Emissions from deforestation alone account for 18 % of the total according to Stern (2006).

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, 2006) has calculated that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions would save $15 to $20 billion annually on irrigation requirements alone, by 2080.

In respect of (15) above: research must determine how carbon storage in soils is to be enhanced, complementing the need to understand emission rates from soils.

Higher temperatures cause plants and soils to soak up less carbon (C) from the atmosphere and cause perma-frost to thaw, potentially releasing large quantities of CH4. Methane emissions have increased by 60% in northern Siberia since 1975 (CH4 emissions represent 15% of total CO2e1 emissions. Perma-frost and wetlands respectively store 1500 and 1600 billion tonnes of CO2e, according to the Stern Review). Investigations of feedbacks in the natural C cycle will explore how warming affects the rate of absorption of CO2 and CH4 by forests and soils. Whether warming also accelerates liberation of CO2 from oceans is influenced by the carbonate reaction with an acidifying effect.

Under (16): develop new drought & flood resistant crops and develop new crops and varieties of existing crops that both reduce emissions and have higher yields. These developments can

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editorials be implemented most rapidly by use of proven genetic manipulations (including, so-called GM) and related techniques.

Warming is very likely to intensify the water cycle, reinforcing existing patterns of water scarcity and abundance – increasing the likelihood of droughts and floods – the fraction of land area subjected to intense drought at any one time is likely to increase from 1% to 30% by 2100, according to Stern. Currently about 18% of cultivated land is under irrigation, accounting for 70% of total anthropogenic use of renewable water resources in the year 2000. IIASA calculate that from 2000 to 2080 world-wide irrigation requirements will have increased from 2630 billion m3 to 3280 billion m3 and that unmitigated climate change would increase this need by a further 400 billion m3 annually. Already 1.7 billion people live in countries experiencing water stress and this number is set to rise to 5 billion by 2025 according to the UN. Methods of fresh water conservation need detailed study.

Flooding will be caused by excessive rainfall in low-lying areas as well as by sea level rise. Mean sea level rise over several centuries could eventually be 512 m.

This Issue includes papers from authors in Africa, America, Europe and China. We are publishing the first of a series of papers on African agriculture.

These deal with both technical and organisational aspects of the subject.

A conclusion reached by several contributors is that improvements in the infrastructure of Africa will contribute greatly to agricultural production and to the livelihood of rural communities. With this the development and strengthening of farmers’ groups, so that the many small farmers have access to a larger market for their produce and so that they have access to technical and financial support, will inevitably play vital roles.

The importance of infrastructure and means of communication will become increasingly important in a changing climate. Most predictions indicate that Africa will be subject to marked change. Although a continuous

increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration may have a positive fertilisation effect on crop yields, the expectation is that the net effects on world yields will be negative.

Moreover, the disparity between tropical and temperate climate zones and between developed and developing countries is likely to increase, despite a positive impact of crop genetics and other technical innovations. We are told that 45 out of the 49 least developed countries are net food importers. It is essential that these countries have access to the most reliable advice and technical developments. Innovations produced in genetically modified crops and in many other fields must be addressed objectively. The establishment willynilly of subsidies for biofuels and of an arbitrary setting by the EU of 10 % as the proportion of all transport fuel that should be derived from biofuels by 2020 is questionable, without a much more detailed examination of the subject. To examine such questions is a function of this Journal.

Models of world climate indicate that the outcome is influenced by a complex array of factors and that the uncertainty of climatic conditions from year to year will increase, so that the frequency of crop failures is likely to increase. This conclusion places even greater importance on the infrastructure and means of communication amongst African countries, allowing crop failures in one country to be replaced by produce from another, so that food storage from one year can be held safe from predation by pests for the next and so that excess rainfall in one year, or in one month, can be conserved for the next. It is our intention that this Journal provides an assessment of the evidence and of alternative solutions for both producers and policy makers and makes the general public aware of some of the issues involved in the development of world agriculture and related subjects.

The Editor – Dr David Frape Footnote (1): Equivalent moles of all greenhouse gases, CO2e, e.g.CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs, SF6 & CF6 in emission effect to that of CO2. Since 1970 the effects of other gases than CO2 have been rising faster than that of CO2 itself.

‘A conclusion reached by several contributors is that improvements in the infrastructure of Africa will contribute greatly to agricultural production and to the livelihood of rural communities’

References International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2006) Food, water, and climate change.

Options, winter 2006, 1617.

IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. http://www.ipcc.ch/ present/graphics/2001syr/ large/05.24.jpg RSC (2005). The Science of Global Warming. Report of a seminar organised by the Royal Society of Chemistry, 19th October, pp1-6.

Stern Review: the economics of climate change (2006) pp 1-579.

Published by HMSO

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The hand is taking the seedling in the withered land

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editorials

Africa and Agriculture

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griculture, including animal production, has always been important to Africa and is likely to continue to be so.

‘It seems likely that climate change will be generally unfavourable to agriculture, increasing the risk of drought and floods, but flooding of low-lying areas could also lead to serious problems of human migration and the need for resources to be diverted to reconstruction’

It has provided food for people and other products such as feed for livestock and raw materials for building and clothing, e.g. cotton, employment, fuel from dung and exports, for which there may be new opportunities. In the future, a wider range of products is likely to be produced, such as chemical feedstocks, fuel and medicinal crops.

The latter represent some of the newer opportunities but basic food production is the priority. There are already large numbers of hungry people, due to poverty. More food production is little help to those who cannot afford to buy it and food aid can only be a temporary measure as otherwise it may impact adversely on local food production. Even so, food production will increase in importance, in a world facing population increase and climate change, with the prospect of devastating disease outbreaks reducing both crop and animal production and less reliable rainfall.

Precautionary actions, such as preventive medicine, require scarce resources of money and veterinary skills.

by lack of infrastructure, such as roads and vehicles. Even these problems pale into insignificance compared with the effects of wars, violence, human disease, such as Aids, and political mismanagement. Many of these problems will be exacerbated if food production is reduced by climate change.

There is little that outsiders can do about many of these problems. Even human disease prevention and control is not simply a matter of vaccines (and ways of storing and transporting them) or of access to remote areas, there are also problems of education, even of top politicians!

As Poul Andersen famously said: “I have yet to encounter any problem, however complicated, which, when looked at in the proper way, did not become still more complicated!”

Countries that used to provide for the food needs of large areas are now desperately short of food themselves, often due to the misguided actions of their own governments. The potential for agricultural production in Africa has always been considerable but whether this potential will survive the consequences of climate change is not known.

All this emphasises the need to use all appropriate technologies and the need for relevant research. Agricultural research is often the first to be cut back in any financial crisis and developing countries need help to undertake research of direct relevance to their needs.

It seems likely that climate change will be generally unfavourable to agriculture, increasing the risk of drought and floods, but flooding of low-lying areas could also lead to serious problems of human migration and the need for resources to be diverted to reconstruction.

However, the situation is vastly more complicated than the matter of increasing agricultural production.

There are huge losses after production, due to inadequate facilities for preservation and storage, exacerbated

There is already a shortage of resources, from fertilisers, especially P, and credit to water – although the latter may also be a problem when present in excess. Tackling the unhelpful distribution of water and the

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giraffes and the landscape

provision of storage from times of excess to times of need, is already urgent.

Furthermore, where the need to provide employment is so great, smallscale farming is a solution as much as a problem. However, small farmers lack power and cooperative ventures might be necessary to overcome some of the weaknesses of small-scale operation. Cooperative activity could include the construction of dams and infrastructure.

But the solutions are not always, or only, best achieved by large-scale reconstruction. The simple provision of plastic rain-water butts to village households could make a major contribution to water supply, preferably combined with fish culture to keep down the mosquitoes.

Traditional sources of fuel, such as wood, often involve collection over large distances and take up a great deal of the available labour: water collection is often a similar burden.

New fuel crops, such as Jatropha, which do not compete with food

crops, may help to ease the first of these problems and local collection of rain water could help with the second.

Transport and traction depend heavily on animal power, which itself means the use of large areas just to feed the animals, but mechanical power is expensive and requires fossil fuels.

This catalogue of problems is not intended to imply a pessimistic assessment of future prospects, only to illustrate that efforts to improve matters have to recognise the realities.

We must avoid simplistic solutions based just on agricultural technology, but that does not mean that appropriate technology cannot be developed. There are reserves of experience and expertise in developed countries that could be harnessed to tackle the agricultural problems in relevant ways but they need to be mobilised and funded, with the aim of helping others to help themselves.

of them â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and this is not always best done via Governments. Links between universities in developed and developing countries provide one way forward but major aid money would need to be channelled by this route.

However, if local people are to use modern technological developments (genetic modification is a good example), they have to have objective and independent assessments as to the benefits, risks and costs of applying them in their situations.

This is the primary function of this journal: it will take time to cover even a fraction of the topics but the present issue makes a start in relation to Africa.

Professor Sir Colin Spedding December 2009

One of the difficulties has always been how to make such resources available to those in developing countries who can make effective use

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wheat and grape in vineyards of Stellenbosch - and blueish misty mountains are background. Shot near Welgevonden estate, Cloetesville, Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa.

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economic and social

Is agricultural development still relevant for sub-Saharan Africa?

Professor Peter Hazell Summary This paper reviews the contemporary debate about the potential for Africa’s smallholder agriculture to stimulate growth and alleviate poverty in an increasingly integrated world. It argues that contending views about agriculture’s potential contributions can best be resolved by placing them within a country’s economic context. Moreover, despite the difficulties of reinvigorating the agricultural sector after years of public neglect, recent changes in the policy environment and successful examples of small farm-led agricultural development provide a more optimistic basis for investing in agriculture than in the past.

Key words: African agriculture, economic development, poverty alleviation, small farms

Introduction The situation in Africa is dire.

Even before the recent world food crisis, a staggering one in three people and a third of all children were undernourished and more than one half of all Africans (about 300 million people) lived on less than one dollar per day, and the continent was becoming increasingly dependent on relief aid from abroad.

As a result of the recent food price increases, the FAO estimates an additional 100 million Africans were driven further into poverty (FAO, 2009).

Yet again, the lives of millions of Africans were dependent upon emergency handouts from abroad.

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lthough there are many contributing factors, the poor performance of the agricultural sector lies at the heart of the problem.

On average, agriculture accounts for 70 percent of full-time employment in Africa, 33 percent of national income, and 40 percent of total export earnings, and its importance is even greater in the poorest countries. Yet its performance in recent decades has been one of the worst in the world.

There are many indicators of agricultural performance and Africa ranks poorly by most of them. Africa has some of the lowest levels of land and labour productivity and these have barely changed in 30 years; the continent has declining per capita output levels, especially of staple foods; it has some of the lowest chemical fertilizer use rates, with serious nutrient mining and declining soil fertility; and Africa is badly losing world market shares for its traditional export crops (Hazell and Wood, 2007; World Bank 2007).

Paradoxically, there is enormous potential for agricultural growth in Africa. The continent is blessed with abundant natural resources (e.g., it has twelve times the land area of India and only two thirds as many people

to feed). Even if Africa were only to double its average cereal yield to about 2 t/ha, this would lead to an extra 100 million t/year of cereals, shifting Africa from a food deficit to a major food surplus region. With a rapidly growing labour force (despite HIV/AIDS), there is growing scope for adopting higher yielding but more labour-intensive technologies and farming systems. Markets are increasing, with rapid population growth and urbanisation at home and new export opportunities as a result of trade liberalisation and globalisation.

Moreover, with few exceptions, the distribution of land is still equitable by international standards and small farms that are efficient but poor dominate the continent.

Given this context it might appear obvious that accelerating agricultural growth should figure prominently in any strategy to reverse Africa’s decline, much as it helped kick start economic growth and poverty reduction across Asia in the 1970s. Yet official development assistance for African agriculture was allowed to decline from about $2 to $1 billion per year from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s, and has remained largely stagnant since then. At the same time, public investment in agriculture by African

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economic and social ‘The debate about the role for agriculture in Africa is structured around three major issues of contention: its role as an engine of growth; its ability to reduce poverty; and the technical and political feasibility of revitalising the sector’ governments has averaged only 5% of total public spending, or about half what Asian countries currently spend (Fan and Rao, 2003). Although national policy makers and donors have made several recent declarations to the contrary (for example, by African Heads of State at Maputo 2003 and G8 Heads of State at Glen Eagles 2006 and at L’Aquila 2009), levels of public and donor spending – rather than commitments – on agriculture still remain low. Underlying these trends is a paralysing debate over whether agriculture is even important for Africa today . This paper reviews the debate and attempts to find some resolution.

Contending Views The debate about the role for agriculture in Africa is structured around three major issues of contention: its role as an engine of growth; its ability to reduce poverty; and the technical and political feasibility of revitalising the sector.

Engines of Growth Because of its importance for national income and employment in most African countries, proponents see agriculture as a sector whose growth can make a real difference to rural living standards. Moreover, agriculture is known to have powerful growth linkage effects on the rest of the economy, including providing cheap food and raw materials and a growing demand for nascent industries (Johnston and Mellor, 1961; Haggblade, Hazell and Brown, 1989).

Sceptics argue that agriculture is a stagnant, low productivity sector with unfavourable market prospects that should be shunned rather than promoted. Moreover, while the growth linkages proved very powerful during the Green Revolution in Asia,

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they may be much weaker today in Africa’s small and more open economies. For example, food prices should be determined more by border prices than domestic agricultural production when imports can enter freely, and industry can sell directly into foreign markets without having to wait for growth in domestic demand.

Counter argument are based on the observation that while Africans living in coastal cities can access cheap food imports, most Africans live in areas where transport costs add significantly to the cost and availability of imported foods and hence increases in local food production can still lower local prices. It is also argued that Asia’s success in developing manufactured exports began with industries that initially catered to a growing domestic demand that was partially protected from import competition. Once these industries were established and had achieved the scale and efficiency needed to successfully compete, only then were their markets fully liberalised. Growth in domestic demand was driven initially by rapid agricultural growth and the rising per capita incomes that this growth helped stimulate. This has not yet happened in most of Africa and without agricultural growth, fledgling industries will have to compete in world markets from their very inception, a daunting task that is all the more challenging today given the flood of cheap manufacturing exports from Asia.

Resolution of this debate about alternative engines of growth is helped by recognising that opportunities depend very much on a country’s economic characteristics (Hazell et al., 2007). An important characteristic is stage of development. Historical evidence from around the world shows that agriculture plays its largest role in the early stages of a country’s

development, which is where most African countries still are. But even then its potential contributions are affected by a country’s resource endowments and its access to international markets.

Countries with mineral resources may have the opportunity to earn significant export revenues and government income without agricultural development. In practice, minerals have proved a curse for many poor countries, benefiting just a small segment of the population and contributing to corruption and conflict while leading to a high currency exchange rate that penalises tradable sectors like agriculture. Where agricultural productivity potential is good, it may be possible to invest mineral revenues in roads, irrigation and drainage, research, and extension to promote a competitive farm sector despite high exchange rates. Nigeria has had some recent success in doing this for selected commodities like cassava. But if agricultural productivity potential is poor, agriculture will function primarily as a subsistence reserve for those on the land, unless intensification is aided by subsidies financed by the mineral economy. In both cases the benefits to the poor will be greater, given an equitable distribution of land, and if improved governance over the allocation and use of mineral revenues can be achieved.

Some countries that are favourably located near the coast may have good access to international markets at low cost and hence good prospects for developing urban-based, exportoriented industries. Unless these industries are to be limited to entrepôt activity, then it is likely that agriculture will play an important part in their development. Agriculture will probably be an important initial source of capital and foreign exchange, and

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economic and social autumn landscape of vineyards, Cape town area, South Africa

most of the needed labour will have to come from agriculture. In countries that have a large urban-based manufacturing sector, agriculture may become penalized by a strong exchange rate, leading to it playing the kind of reserve occupation role played in mineral exporting countries..

In countries without significant minerals or manufacturing options, agriculture will almost certainly need to play a leading role. This is most easily achieved in countries with good agricultural potential, in which case rapid agricultural growth can generate significant demand for the nonagricultural economy while at the same time releasing capital, foreign exchange, and labour to enable other sectors to expand. Agricultural exports may also be an important growth driver and agricultural processing may initially be a leading manufacturing sector. The most challenging cases are countries with low agricultural potential, no minerals, and limited manufacturing prospects. Agriculture in these countries is likely to be primarily a subsistence reserve where

the poor can build livelihoods with little dependency on the state, particularly when land is distributed equitably. Even here, some pockets of land with reasonable soil and a water supply often exist. Prominent examples are Sahelian countries that have established themselves as major cotton exporters in the past two decades, as well as developing a modest level of irrigated rice production.

Poverty Proponents of agriculture stress the sector’s potential to slash poverty rates, as demonstrated during the Green Revolution in Asia (World Bank, 2007). Why the big poverty impact?

An important reason is that most poor Africans work in agriculture so any growth in labour productivity can raise their living standards. Another reason is the labour intensity of agricultural growth, especially when small farms predominate because they are typically much more labour intensive than large mechanized farms. About 80% of Africa’s farms are smaller than 2 hectares and they account for

significant shares of agricultural production (Nagayets, 2005). Another reason is lower food prices. Given that food consumption accounts for large shares of a typical African household’s budget (50% or more and even higher for poor households), then any reduction in price associated with agricultural growth can greatly add to their purchasing power.

Small farms are also typically more efficient producers in poor, laboursurplus economies (Eastwood, Lipton and Newell, 2009), so targeting them can be “win-win” for growth and poverty alleviation. The efficiency advantages of small farms slowly disappear as countries develop and wage rates rise, leading to a natural transition toward larger and more mechanised farms and an exodus of farm workers to other sectors. But that transition does not normally begin until countries have grown out of lowincome status and few African countries are close to reaching that stage. A common misdiagnosis stems from overlooking this broader economic context for determining the

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economic and social countries are close to reaching that stage. A common misdiagnosis stems from overlooking this broader economic context for determining the economics of farm size.

Sceptics counter that food price effects are less important today (see previous section) and most small farms are not viable in today’s globalised economy (e.g. Maxwell, Urey and Ashley, 2001; Collier, 2009). Agricultural marketing chains are changing and small farmers are increasingly being asked to compete in markets that are more demanding in terms of quality and food safety, more concentrated and integrated, and much more open to international competition.

Supermarkets, for example, are playing an increasingly dominant role in controlling access to urban retail markets (Reardon et al. 2003), and direct links to private exporters are often essential for accessing high-value export markets. As small farms struggle to diversify into higher-value products, they must increasingly meet the requirements of such demanding markets, both at home and overseas.

Sceptics also argue that large numbers of small farmers are too small today to make a viable living out of farming and have anyway diversified their livelihoods away from agriculture to the point where farming now accounts for only small shares of their total income. As such, they argue it is better to invest in helping small farmers diversify out of agriculture, including helping more workers migrate and settle in urban areas where growth is assumed to be taking place. They call for substantial new investment in human capital and rural safety net programs to assist in the transition.

Counter arguments are based on the fact that Africa’s domestic markets lag the rest of the world in terms of their integration and spread of supermarkets, and that most small farmers still grow and sell traditional foods in local markets. Moreover, there are successful examples of organising small farmers into producer groups that can successfully link to modern high value markets and input

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chains. It is also argued that for many African countries, the problem is not that all their small farms are inherently unviable in today’s marketplace, but that they face an increasingly tilted playing field that, if left unchecked, could lead to their premature demise.

A major problem has been that structural adjustment and privatization programmes have left many small farmers without adequate access to key inputs and services, including farm credit. The removal of state agencies that provided many of these marketing and service functions to small farms, has left a vacuum that the private sector has yet to adequately fill in many countries (Kherallah et al.

2002). The removal of subsidies has also made some key inputs, such as fertilizer, prohibitively expensive for many small farmers, and the removal of price stabilization programmes has exposed many farmers to greater downside price risks. These problems are especially difficult for small farms living in more remote regions with poor infrastructure and market access.

If greater action were taken to restore many of these key functions, say through innovative public-private partnerships, then many small farms would again become more competitive.

As for rural income diversification, this is not an unequivocally positive phenomenon. On the one hand, diversification may reflect a successful structural transformation in which rural workers are gradually being “pulled” into more lucrative non-farm jobs, such as teaching, milling, or welding. Entry into these formal jobs often requires some capital, qualifications, and/or possibly social contacts. On the other hand, in Africa, diversification into the non-farm economy is often a “push” phenomena, driven by growing land scarcity, declining rural wages, and poor agricultural growth, and many workers are moving into low skill, low paid jobs in the service sector (Bryceson and Jamal, 1997; Hazell, Haggblade and Reardon, 2007).

Resolution of the small farm debate also depends on recognising that

country economic characteristics have an important bearing on the opportunities and constraints facing small farms (Hazell et al., 2007). Two key roles are identified. One is a growth, or development, role. This role arises when agriculture itself has a growth role to play and when commercially oriented small farms are efficient and can compete in the market. Countries starting with large mineral or urban-based manufacturing sectors will have high exchange rates and ready access to low-cost food imports, so small-farm growth opportunities are likely to be limited to high-value domestic markets. But in countries where agriculture is the lead growth sector, small-farm growth opportunities will arise primarily in the domestic market for food staples and in high-value export markets, at least during the early stages of development when the domestic market for high-value products is still small.

A second role for small farms arises from their potential social contributions. Small farms can provide a way for governments to spread the benefits from a large mineral or urbanbased manufacturing sector during the early stages of development when most people are still engaged in agriculture. As economies grow, small farms can also serve as a useful reserve employer until sufficient exit opportunities exist—a role that can be especially important in fast-growing countries regardless of their primary engine of growth. Finally, small farms may provide a social safety net, or subsistence living, for many of the rural poor, even when they are too small to be commercially viable. These social roles are most important in countries with a poor agricultural productivity potential, an equitable distribution of land, or a large mineral or urban-based manufacturing sector.

These social roles do not necessarily require that small farms be commercially viable, and in fact subsistence-oriented small farms may be the most appropriate ones to target.

As economic transformation proceeds,

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economic and social ‘In the end, the best answer to the sceptics is likely to come from success stories showing that agricultural development is commercially viable, pro-poor and technically and politically feasible in African countries’ farms’ role as a reserve employer, however, is tricky because it can lead to government support policies that keep too many people in agriculture for too long, as happened in many OECD countries.

Technical and Political Difficulties The neglect of agricultural investment in Africa has led to a situation in which average cereal yields (of about 1t/ha) are now much lower than in Asia and Latin America, and the gap is widening (Hazell and Wood, 2007; World Bank, 2007). Sceptics argue that revitalising the sector will not be easy: Africa still has much lower densities of rural infrastructure than India had even in the 1950s (Spencer 1994). Africa also has weak institutions for rural development; there is limited irrigation potential and most agriculture must be conducted on depleted soils and under difficult climatic conditions.

World agricultural prices are also low in real terms despite the recent food crisis and there is limited tolerance today for the kinds of subsidies and state roles that underpinned the Green Revolution in Asia. Seen from this perspective, sceptics see attempts to develop African agriculture as too expensive and too late.

Agricultural proponents take heart from the improved policy environment for agriculture: the structural adjustment programmes instigated by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have removed the worst of the biases against agriculture and opened the way for more successful agricultural investments.

They also see plenty of opportunities for raising yields through technological change. Some of the needed technologies are already available and modern science is opening up new opportunities to increase agricultural productivity, even in countries and

regions that have not benefited much from new technologies in the past.

Poor infrastructure, marketing and input supply systems can be overcome by prioritising farms in areas that are better connected to markets, and by developing technology and natural resource management options that do not require high levels of modern inputs (World Bank, 2007). Proponents also take heart from the greater political commitment of African leaders to agriculture, as expressed in the Maputo 2003 Declaration, and by the commitment of most African states to the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). A changing outlook for longer term world cereal and oilseed prices, driven in large part by the aggressive expansion of biofuels programmes in the US and EU and global climate change (World Bank, 2007; Nelson, et al., 2009), will further improve incentives for agricultural investment in Africa while also increasing the imperative for agricultural growth in the face of rising import bills and dwindling supplies of food aid.

On balance, it seems there are still many opportunities for agriculture to play a key role in growth and poverty alleviation in Africa. It is also clear that neglecting agriculture is not working.

After 20 years of neglect, African countries have experienced a much higher exit of their workforce from agriculture than is normal for countries at their level of per capita income, and this high exit pattern has been accompanied by falling rather than rising per capita incomes (Headey, Bezemer and Hazell, 2010). It is not the kind of economic diversification that is driven by economic growth but by human despair. The latest world food crisis has shown just how vulnerable Africa’s food security remains because of the failure to

develop its agricultural sector.

Successes in African Agriculture In the end, the best answer to the sceptics is likely to come from success stories showing that agricultural development is commercially viable, pro-poor and technically and politically feasible in African countries. A recent study (Haggblade and Hazell, 2010; Haggblade, 2004) documents several successes of sufficient scale to warrant attention. Amongst these, three – cassava, rice and small scale milk production – illustrate what can be achieved with small farms within the context of poor infrastructure and high transport costs and without the need for input subsidies. Each also demonstrates the key role played by publicly funded agricultural research and a favourable market opportunities.

Cassava Cassava is Africa's second most important food staple after maize.

Cassava is vegetatively propagated and requires few if any purchased inputs.

This makes it an ideal crop for small farmers, and reduces the need for coordinated input delivery and credit systems, a problem that has plagued many other crops. Since it can be planted throughout the rainy season and harvested over a period of up to 18 months, it offers important flexibility in the timing of labour inputs, harvesting and marketing. With limited international trade in raw cassava, production gains can also lead to lower consumer prices that are especially beneficial to the poor.

In the past three decades, cassava breeding programmes have produced a number of new varieties called the Tropical Manioc Selection (TMS). Bred for disease resistance, high yield, early bulking, and root shapes that will accommodate mechanical processing,

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the TMS varieties have routinely generated substantial yield gains of about 40 percent, even without fertilizer, and produce returns to land that are up to twenty times greater than those achieved with local varieties and manual processing.

Diffusion of these varieties has stimulated large increases in cassava production in many parts of Africa (fourfold increases since the 1960s in Nigeria and Ghana alone). Nigeria is now the world's largest cassava producer, having overtaken Brazil, but is not yet a significant producer of processed cassava products, such as livestock feed and starch, that are sold on world markets. Nigeria has already made a foray into the China market, but significant growth of exports will require additional investments in rural infrastructure, crop breeding and cassava processing (Nweke and Haggblade, 2010).

Rice in West Africa Created in the mid-1990s, Nerica, the new rice for Africa, is a drought tolerant upland rice that yields 50 percent more than existing varieties even without use of fertilizers and pesticides. It does even better when fertilizer is applied. Like the TMS cassava varieties, it promises to benefit large numbers of small farms that do

not have access to modern inputs. It is also the product of a sustained public research programme that brought together breeders from Africa and Asia.

and growth has the potential to be pro-poor. Additional milk consumption can also be nutritionally beneficial for the poor, but this requires lower prices to make it affordable.

Nerica is still at an early stage of dissemination and though it is too early to judge it as a success, its development is timely. Rice consumption in West Africa has been growing at 6% per annum since 1973 and imports have been growing at 8.4% per annum since 1997, already exceeding 4 million tons per year. This offers an excellent market opportunity to build on a technological breakthrough while also assisting many of the poorer farmers in West Africa.

The potential exists to increase dairy markets as per capita incomes rise, as more people become urbanized, and if unit costs can be reduced. Informal milk markets for whole raw milk dominate the sector (about 75% of sales in Kenya) and these are very seasonal. To reach higher income consumers in the urban market it is necessary to develop more formal markets that ensure year round delivery of milk and dairy products that meet basic quality and safety standards. This in turn requires more off-season production, and pasteurization, processing, packaging and storage systems that can produce more dairy products all year round.

Key requirements for growing the industry and reducing costs are improved breeds, artificial insemination, veterinary services and improved feeding (Ngigi et al., 2010).

Smallholder dairy production needs strong public sector support, especially for disease management, upgrading breeding stock and ensuring quality and safety standards throughout the market chain.

Small scale milk production Growth in urban demand for milk is increasing at 2-3% per annum in parts of east Africa and this has spawned a minor milk revolution. In Kenya, for example, dairy production has grown at 2.8 percent per year over the past two decades, resulting in per capita production levels double those found anywhere else on the continent (Ngigi et al., 2010).

Importantly, the milk sector is dominated by smallholder producers

Conclusions Agricultureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s role in the economic development of a country is context specific, varying by stage of development and the availability of alternative growth sectors that can drive national economic growth. Globalisation and trade liberalisation have weakened traditional patterns of development to some extent, but most African countries seem unlikely to achieve higher growth rates or to slash poverty without first achieving more rapid agricultural growth.

Revitalising the agricultural sector will not be easy given inadequate rural infrastructure, weak institutions for rural development; limited irrigation potential, widespread soil degradation and limited tolerance today for the kinds of subsidies and state roles that underpinned the Green Revolution in Asia. But there have been enough success stories in recent years to show that small farm led development is still possible in Africa. Rising world food prices and diminishing food surpluses in rich countries as a result of new bioenergy demands can only add to the imperative for Africa to increase its food production.

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Peter Hazell, p.hazell@cgiar.org, was formerly director of development strategy and governance at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington DC. This paper draws on work undertaken at Imperial College at Wye when he was a visiting professor.

During 2000-2003, food aid averaged 4.6 kg/capita in Africa compared to 1.1 in Asia (Haggblade, Hazell and Gabre-Madhin, 2010), and in 2007, food aid and emergency food aid combined accounted for 30% of Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total ODA to African agriculture.

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References Bryceson, D. F. and Jamal, V. 1997. Farewell to farms: Deagrarianisation and employment in Africa. Aldershot, Ashgate.

Collier, P. 2009. Africa’s organic peasantry; beyond romanticism.

Harvard International Review, Summer: 62-65.

Eastwood, R., Lipton, M. and Newell, A. 2009. Farm size, in: Pingali, P. and R. Evenson (eds.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume 4. Elsevier: Amsterdam.

Ellis, F., and N. Harris. 2004.

“New Thinking about Urban and Rural Development.” Keynote paper prepared for the U.K. Department for International Development Sustainable Development Retreat.

Fan, S. and N. Rao. 2003. Public Spending in Developing Countries: Trends, Determination and Impact.

EPTD Discussion Paper No. 99, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 2009. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009, (Rome: FAO). (http://www.fao.org/publications/s ofi/en/).

Haggblade, S., and Hazell, P. (eds.). 2010. Successes in African Agriculture, Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press.

Haggblade, S., P. Hazell and E. Gabre-Madhin. 2010. Challenges for African Agriculture. In: Haggblade, S. and P. Hazell (eds), Successes in African Agriculture, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Haggblade, S., P. Hazell and T. Reardon. 2007. Structural transformation of the rural nonfarm economy. In: Haggblade, S., P. Hazell and T. Reardon (eds.).

Transforming the Rural Nonfarm Economy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.

Haggblade, S.(ed.). 2004.

Building on Successes in African Agriculture. 2020 Focus 12, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C. (www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus12/ focus12.pdf) Haggblade, S., P. Hazell and J. Brown. 1989. Farm-NonFarm Linkages in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 17( 8):1173-1202.

Hazell, P., C. Poulton, S. Wiggins and A. Dorward. 2007. The Future of Small Farms for Poverty Reduction and Growth. 2020 Discussion Paper 42, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C. Hazell, P. and S. Wood. 2007.

Drivers of Change in Global Agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 363 (1491): 495-515, 12 February.

Headey, D., Bezemer, D. and Hazell, P. 2010. Agricultural employment trends in Asia and Africa: Too fast or too slow, World Bank Research Observer, (doi: 10.1093/wbro/lkp028).

Johnston, B. and Mellor, J. 1961.

The role of agriculture in economic development, American Economic Review, 51 (4): 566–93.

Kherallah, M., C. Delgado, E. Gabre-Madhin, N. Minot, and M. Johnson. 2002. Reforming Agricultural Markets in Africa.

Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Maxwell, S., I. Urey, and C. Ashley. 2001. Emerging Issues in Rural Development: An Issues Paper. Overseas Development Institute, London.

Nagayets, O. 2005. Small Farms: Current Status and Key Trends. In The Future of Small Farm: Proceedings of a Research Workshop, Wye, UK, June 26-29, 2005. International Food Policy

Research Institute, Washington D.C. Nelson, G. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Koo, J., Robertson, R., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Palazzo, A., Batka, M., Magalhaes, M., Valmonte-Santos, R., Ewing, M. and Lee, D. 2009. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Ngigi, M., Abdelwahab, M. A., Ehui, S. and Assefa, Y. 2010.

Smallholder dairying in Eastern Africa. In: Haggblade, S. and P. Hazell (eds), Successes in African Agriculture, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Nweke, F. and S. Haggblade. 2010. The Cassava transformation in West and Southern Africa. In: Haggblade, S., and Hazell, P. (eds.), Successes in African Agriculture, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Reardon, T., C.P. Timmer, C. Barrett, and J. Berdegué. 2003.

“The Rise of Supermarkets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85(5): 1140-46.

Spencer, D. 1994. Infrastructure and Technology Constraints to Agricultural Development in the Humid and Sub-humid Tropics of Africa. Environment and Production Technology Division Discussion Paper No. 3, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Thirtle, C., L. Lin, and J. Piesse.

2002. The Impact of Research-Led Agricultural Productivity Growth on Poverty Reduction in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Research Paper No. 016, Management Centre Research Papers, Kings College, London.

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Washington DC., The World Bank.

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Developing contract farming systems in Uganda Dr Wilberforce Kisamba-Mugerwa and Terefe Ademetegn Lemma Summary Farmers in Uganda are mainly individual, family-based seasonal producers, using low resource technology, largely scattered and experiencing high transaction costs. They produce several food and cash crops and livestock, with a small tradable surplus. They experience difficulties in meeting the required standards in sorting, grading, processing, packaging and marketing. They have low purchasing power and lack access to credit opportunities for bulk purchase inputs. The majority are trapped in subsistence farming. As a means of reducing poverty and ensuring food and nutrition security, commercialising and industrialising agriculture remains Ugandaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strategy within its framework of modernising agriculture. Contract farming (CF) has emerged as an effective mechanism through which smallholder farmers would overcome the production and marketing constraints and increase agricultural productivity and profitability. The farmers have yet to maximise benefit from these contractual arrangements, since they are not coherently organised. The once successful cooperative movement collapsed owing to political interference, internal inefficiency and lack of capacity to compete under a liberalized economy. As a result, several farmer organisations (FOs) emerged with limited success in executing contract farming to the benefit of the smallholder farmers. The challenge remains for the emerging farmer groups to improve on managerial efficiency, coherence, and partnership and, effectively, spearhead the smallholder farmer interests. On the other hand, the government has to systematically create a conducive business atmosphere for entrepreneurs to invest in Uganda and also assist in initiating and promoting strong supporting institutions and farmer market intelligences through efficient information, communication and technology networks. To reduce poverty in contract farming areas the smallholder farmers have to participate in the emerging non-farm economic activities to supplement their incomes Key words: Contract farming, collective action, transaction costs, institutions, market intelligences, value web, all activities undertaken by the farmers for subsistence

African marketplace, Bunyonyi lake in Uganda

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Introduction Collective action remains the only effective means deployed by smallholder farmers in Uganda to have access to markets and reduce transaction costs.

These have varied from cooperative societies to various forms of farmer groups in an effort to have access to farm inputs, markets and processes.

sustainable investment in commercialisation and industrialisation of agriculture through contract farming. These measures may include a regular review of the taxation policies, improvement of rural infrastructure, investment in agricultural research and elimination of market distortions.

However, weak institutions, political interference and internal inefficiencies weakened the cooperative movement and it was left highly stigmatised among the potential farmer cooperators. The liberalisation of marketing of the produce left the cooperative societies in complete disarray due to lack of competitiveness. This left the farmers vulnerable and experiencing continued problems of individually contracting with entrepreneurs.

All these would need government support to create a business atmosphere with appropriate policies and institutions. The absence of effective public dispute resolution mechanisms in cases of breach of contract limits the expansion of trade financial investment and market development. The presence of a developed well functioning legal system tends to encourage firms to undertake riskier activities (Collier and Gunning 1999, Bigsten, et al, 2000). On the contrary the poor bear the greatest burden of institutional failure in case of corruption and a highly regressive tax system.

Demands for bribes and unofficial fees for services hit poor people hardest (World Bank 2000d). These should be designed to lead to competitiveness and viable contractual arrangements with effective enforcement mechanisms and processes that expeditiously settle disputes.

The way was opened for the mushrooming of numerous farmer groups of different typologies in different models of production and contract farming. Some have exhibited successes and others have remained a source of conflict between the farmers and the entrepreneurs. Nevertheless, farmers in Uganda have gradually learnt that government patronage in procuring farm inputs, organising crop finance, fixing prices, processing and arranging for export of produce through various government marketing boards is long gone.

Grouping themselves under contract farming is seen as a mechanism for promoting commercial agricultural production. It is also seen as a catalyst for enhancing production, competitiveness and incomes. Grouping provides smallholder farmers with access to farm inputs, technical services, rural finance and market opportunities. This however, needs strong supporting institutions and market intelligences for the smallholder farmers to benefit.

A close examination of the characteristics and performance of emerging farmer groups , and the modes of contract farming being practised in Uganda, reveal that a number of fundamental issues need to be addressed to make contract farming contribute to poverty reduction. This would be for the mutual benefit of all stakeholders participating in these new relations leading to greater market efficiency and value addition. The emerging FOs still experience both internal and external problems. They need mechanisms that may bring about internal cohesion, efficiency, transparency, accountability, enhanced linkages, partnerships and networks with the private sector, government, and NGOs. A number of measures need to be addressed that attract more entrepreneurs to undertake

The government needs to supplement private sector efforts in capacity strengthening among the farmers through building public -private farmerâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;partnerships (PPFP), to meet market standards, to improve infrastructure and enhance political stability and to ensure that disease and quality control measures are in place. To promote farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capacity to maximise their benefits from a liberalised marketing economy under contract farming it would need government to take initiatives and promote viable market intelligences supported with availability, accessibility and affordability of information and communication technology networks.

Drawing from a literature review and personal field observations, this paper examines the problems faced by farmers in Uganda, the typology of the emerging FOs, the various types of contract farming, and the effectiveness and benefits of FOs in contract farming. Furthermore, the paper discusses the factors that may be constraining contract farming and those facilitating its expansion in context of institutions and farmer empowerment in Uganda. In the final section, some conclusions and specific policy implications are drawn by pointing out necessary areas of intervention that should be addressed to increase efficiency, to promote business initiative, and to increase management capacity and linkage to national, regional and global markets.

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PROBLEMS FACED BY FARMERS IN UGANDA Farmers in Uganda have experienced difficulties in meeting the required standards in sorting, grading, processing, packaging and marketing.

They have limited access to credit and financial services and they have low purchasing power. They face high transaction costs in accessing inputs and the majority is trapped in subsistence farming. They are also dealing with intermittent buyers and suppliers who are unable to benefit from economies of scale. They are not directly linked with many formal markets. They are also experiencing institutional constraints in enforcing contracts; these factors lead to difficulties in efficiently fulfilling contractual agreements. They also pose particular problems for the supply chain development needed for agricultural industrialisation. This is aggravated by poor rural roads and storage; poor access to information, particularly about markets and prices, lack of access to new technologies, and asymmetrical power relationships between farmers and agribusiness firms. They are highly constrained in meeting quality and standards required in the supply chain, particularly in the dairy, vegetable and fruit industries. The growing supermarket chains in Uganda do not essentially support the smallholder farmers to market their produces.

Figure 1: Smallholder Farmers Trapped in interlocking Agri-chain Systems in Uganda Source: Personal field observation and analysis from Uganda â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kisamba-Mugerwa, W. (2001-2004) Figure 1 & 2 and Table 1 show the circumstances in which Ugandan smallholder farmers are trapped in the agri-chain systems.

As shown in Fig 2, the growing ICT in Uganda has not been guided to benefit the primary income generating activities in agriculture. It is essentially used for social contacts and office work.

Glossary Contract farming: contractual arrangement between farmers and other firms, on specified terms whether oral or written to produce a particular crop.

Cluster of farmers: Loose group of farmers producing /contracting individually with a sponsor and thus not strictly associated with, or bound by, cooperative principles.

Cooperative Society: A form of a business organisation whereby people agree to voluntarily associate on the basis of equality for the promotion of their economic interests.

Farmer Empowerment: Enabling the farmer to have access to resources that

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enhances the performance of the farmers.

Institutions: Organisations and their related regulations and arrangements.

Liberalisation: Marketing of produce not regulated by government.

Market Intelligence: Ability to access and supply knowledge of prices, amount and all information related to the market status of a particular commodity.

Privatisation: Releasing any activity from government for Private sector participation.

Regressive Tax system: a tax rate decreasing proportionately with an

increase in the tax base.

Supply Chain: All processes related to primary production as opposes to the demand side.

Transaction costs: Total expenses related to executing a particular activity.

Up scaling: Widening the scope of the same activities.

Value Addition: Increasing the relative worthiness through processing of produce as opposed to marketing primary produce.

Value web: Decisions about allocation of available time to normal farm work or to that for contract work.

FO Farmer organisation.

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economic and social have grass roots memberships. Some were created to serve a short term purpose like negotiating for rescheduling of loans. Others are formed to tap the various government/donor-funded microcredit programmes. A strong grassroot organisation is yet to be seen in Uganda.

THE CONCEPT OF CONTRACT FARMING

Figure 2: Information and Communication Technology users (%) Source: Etta et al., ‘Inquires and questionnaires, ICTs and Community Development Study, Uganda, November 2000, (2001).

Table 1: Paved roads (km) per million population in selected countries comparing Uganda’s position in the development arena

Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 2000 As shown in Table 1, Uganda is among the countries with the least paved roads per person. The decentralisation of local authority to over 80 districts in Uganda has not yet made much impact on the creation and maintenance of feeder and community roads. Therefore, poor rural infrastructure and weak institutions lead to high transaction costs. The main benefits are skewed towards the traders, leaving minimal profit margins to the farmers.

collective action and the formation of a different typology of farmer organisations (Table 2). In some cases these FOs are competing for the same constituency of farmers. Others do not

Contract farming has been in existence for many years as a means of organising commercial agricultural production of both large-scale and smallholder farmers. It has been promoted over the past 30 years as an institutional innovation to improve agricultural performance in less developed countries, occasionally as a key element of rural development and/or settlement projects. It is observed that interest in it continues to expand, particularly in countries that previously followed a central planning policy and in those countries, like Uganda, that have liberalised marketing through the closing down of marketing boards. The development of supermarket chains in many countries, and the continued expansion of world trade in fresh and processed products, have also provided the impetus for further development of this mode of production (Ghee and Dorall 1992, Watts 1994, Warning and Hoo 2000, FAO 2001).

Table 2: Development of farmers’ organisation in chronological order

TYPOLOGY OF FARMERS ORGANISATIONS IN UGANDA Farmers in Uganda have been accustomed historically to the cooperative movement, which has been the dominant form of FO, particularly in the area of marketing.

However, new developments such as privatisation, liberalisation and democratisation have prompted

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economic and social farmer working land in Madagascar,Africa

FAO 2001).

This system is used as one of the promising institutional frameworks for the delivery of price incentives, technology, and other agricultural inputs among smallholder farmers by local governments, private firms, multinational companies and international aid and lending agencies (Glover 1984 & 1992 & 1994, Ramaswami et al. 2005).

The available literature confirms that smallholder farmers do not typically have access to efficient information about financial resources or access to credit facilities. They also lack collateral where there is a need to mortgage.

Contract farming is a mechanism that can deal with many of these constraints in an integrated manner (Doye et al. 1992, Moore 1994, Rehber 1998). Government intervention and subsidisation policy could be seen as an alternative to contract farming but this has in the past proven unsustainable in developing countries. Target subsidies are generally high-jacked by those who are affluent. It is difficult to manage it where everyone is in need of the resources being subsidised.

Ineffective extension and training policies of public agencies could be improved through contract farming.

Sustainable credit policies in agriculture also could be realised by

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contractual arrangements. Contract farming helps farmers by providing new technology, ready markets, secured inputs and prices, and increased cash incomes.

Contract farming can be structured in a variety of ways depending on the Figure 3: A contract farming framework

Sources: Eaton 1998b: p274, in FAO 2001

farm enterprises involved, the objectives and resources of the entrepreneur and the experience of the farmers.

Certain products favour specific approaches. The common contract farming framework is shown in Figure 3.

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economic and social Contracting out production is a commercial decision for any crop or livestock product and can be done theoretically using any of the models.

According to FAO (2001), decisions by sponsors on the type of model to follow should be made on the basis of market demand, production and processing requirements and the economic and social viability of plantation versus smallholder production and also their characteristics and constraints.

Contract farming arrangements fall into one of the following five models such as (1)-The centralised model, (2)The nucleus estate model, (3)-The multipartite model, (4)-The informal model, (5)-The intermediary model.

there is tendency for disputes. This is the case in the sugar cane and the organic cotton growing industries of Uganda. As regards to a nucleus estate model experience shows that the farmers may not have had access to the services expected. For an informal model, which is simple, there might be financial constraints.

The informal model does not provide extension services and indeed these farmers may be exploited and experiences a high risk of default. With regard to an intermediary model, the

farmers may lose contact with the original sponsor and be exploited. The only model which has safeguards against farmer exploitation is the multipartite model which involves many stakeholders in the management but overheads may eat into the benefit to the farmers.

To sum up, strong organised and efficient FOs are critical to the services of any contract farming scheme. The up-scaling of contract farming in Uganda must therefore go hand in hand with the strengthening of FOs.

Table 3: Historical developed commercialising Agriculture in Uganda by commodities and type of contract farming (Prices,Uganda shillings-UShs

EFFECTIVENESS OF FARMERS ORGANIZATION IN CONTRACT FARMING The different models suit different production circumstances. It is difficult in Uganda to determine which model is operating. The influence of the apex and umbrella farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; organisations in evolving contracts remains very hazy.

This influence becomes clear in light of a diversity of emerging farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; organisations, many of them being active mainly at national level. Some entrepreneurs prefer to deal directly with individual farmers or a cluster of farmers found at the lowest level in the rural areas. In many cases these clusters are not business entities.

In Uganda, constraints against the scaling up of contract farming stem from the type of model applied, the type of farm enterprise involved and the characteristics of the farmers involved as shown in Table 3. What is common among all models is the contractual fluidity made with farmers especially where the FOs lack internal coherence and capacity to negotiate with the potential sponsors. This is also a disadvantage to the sponsors when there is no mechanism for the cluster of farmers to stop its members from free-riding, defaulting or undermining fellow members.

As Table 3 shows, in a centralised model the farmers are exploited where they are not well organised and where extra-contractual sales are involved,

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economic and social

Table 3 illustrates the economic importance of contractual arrangements for both farmers and the nation as whole. It indicates also the importance of the selected commodities in terms of household income, employment, value addition an export potential. The private sector has played a significant role in backward and forward linkages to identify market opportunities, link with farmers to ensure that they raise their productivity and are able to sustain supply volumes. The private sector also assures farmers of the prices and markets for their products. Invariably, this has stimulated production. The selected sectors can be matched with existing private sector actors that make a significant contribution to increased production, value addition and market access.

mechanism to bring the farmers, entrepreneurs and the government to work closely in commercialising and industrialising agriculture in Uganda.

The challenge is to ensure that the farmers benefit through these undertakings so that they graduate from subsistence to business oriented farming that reduces poverty and ensures food and nutrition security.

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Ideally, once markets are assured and the prices are right, producers can be eager to move beyond subsistence and make a better living for themselves. Through contractual arrangement farmers in Uganda are engaged in intensive and commodity focus farming systems by shifting from extensive, low input and traditional farming systems to systems that satisfy the market and consumers through their contractors. What they need is to reinforce the current policies, institutions and services that create opportunities for them to produce with a business orientation. In spite of assured prices and markets for specified commodities, production and productivity are still low, and producers are not able to meet the requirements of the installed processing capacity. This indicates that there are high opportunities for the Ugandan farmers to earn more from contractual farming activities, if productivity is increased and production of specialised commodities is up-scaled. On the contrary, experience has shown that in Uganda while farmers spend their time fulfilling contracts, they are also essentially dealing with many other crops and livestock enterprises on their respective farms. A farmer is caught up in this

In Uganda, FOs have moved from informal labour exchange groups to cooperatives and then to producer and commodity specific associations, culminating in a diversity of national umbrella organisations, including a Cooperative Alliance. The main driving factor has been the need to address common problems. The introduction of liberalisation and democratisation policies together with the need to provide services for the farmers encouraged them to work collectively and overcome some of the constraints.

Various modules of production to face a variety of challenges accompanied this collective work.

What is common among them, however, is the establishment of sustainable production modules resulting in farmer ownership with direct linkages to reliable markets with organised market chain services that lead to value addition and increased benefit to farmers..

Ugandan agriculture currently employs different models. Contract farming is seen as an effective

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This calls for a business atmosphere that attracts various entrepreneurs to invest in the agricultural sector in partnership with the farmers. The upscaling of contract farming in Uganda would need government and international community support to build up the required capacity. This is particularly crucial in areas of building strong supporting institutions for a reliable functioning system.

cobweb of several enterprises on a decreasing farm size. This limits the smallholder farmers to maximise earnings from the value chain of the specific contractual commodities.

For contract farming to contribute to poverty reduction the smallholder farmers should be encouraged to participate in alternative economic activities, to benefit from a value web approach.

The private sector players need to reinforce further in partnership with organised farmers to ensure that the raw materials required for the industries are supplied in the right volumes and quality. This approach is yielding good results, but it is still far from making substantial coverage of over 3.5 millions of smallholder farmers in the country.

In isolated cases the quality and standard of the supplied products to sustain Ugandaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s competitiveness in the global market is emerging where skilled companies are working with the smallholder farmers. In some cases the emerging contract system has transformed the village economy by introducing cottage industries that generate household incomes and also improve on nutrition as is the case in the essential oil seeds project area. In other remote areas alternative employment has been introduced in the palm oil growing, such as in Kalangala district. In the cotton industry contract farming remains a source of conflict particularly in respect of pricing of organic cotton..

The existing government programmes and institutions to contribute to further development of the sector need to be integrated to support the rural economy. It calls for a long term vision backed with appropriate systematic policies closely monitored to create an enabling atmosphere for mutual benefit. In spite of the existing contribution, many constraints still exist. There is need for support of agricultural commercialisation in a holistic,

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economic and social three African Nguni bulls on pasture

dynamic, interactive undertaking.

What is lacking is more collaboration among farmers and networking to improve synergies and understand the contribution of other players in order to improve the situation of all stakeholders along the value-chain.

The farmers need to have access to affordable information and communication technology tailored on promoting farmers awareness through market intelligence. The public sector is needed to ensure conducive overall macro- and micro-economic policies, security and supporting infrastructure, such as rural roads. Through other existing programmes and efforts, the public sector also provides some support to the private sector players to strengthen capacity for sustainable access to the markets for the benefit of smallholder farmers.

that lead to value added production possibilities. Building on the existing business oriented groups of farmers may pay dividends.

The main areas that may need support are as follows:

5) For poverty reduction smallholder farmers may have to participate in emerging non-farm economic enterprises in their respective areas to supplement their income from contract farming.

1) Empowering farmers through wellorganised FOs to own the process and means of production and marketing

2) Building managerial capacity at all levels to promote internal efficiency among Fos. 3) Promoting farmers awareness through market intelligence by availability, accessibility and affordability of information and communication technology facilities.

4) Building up a human capital base in the agricultural sector through business training to undertake business initiatives. Farmer groups should aim beyond primary production to processing and marketing, maximising benefits along the value chain.

The main players in contract farming, besides the consumer (market) are the government or its agencies, the farmers, the different forms of the private sector entrepreneur or sponsor. For contract farming to succeed and be up-scaled there is need to ensure that each party plays its part for mutual benefit of all.

This would need a viable partnership between government, private sectors and farmers, Public- Private- FarmerPartnership.

Dr Wilberforce Kisamba-Mugerwa Director for International Service for National Agricultural Research Division, IFPRI Terefe Ademetegn Lemma Senior Research Analyst for International Service for National Agricultural Research Division IFPRI

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economic and social References Agricultural Policy Network of Uganda (APONU) (2005). Inventory of Agricultural National and Local Government Legislations and Policies in Uganda.

Baumann, P. (2000). Equity and Efficiency in Contract Farming Schemes: The Experience of Agricultural tree Crops. Overseas Development Institute, London UK. Best R., Ferris S. and Schiavone A. (2005). Building linkages and enhancing trust between small-scale rural producers, buyers in growing markets and suppliers of critical inputs. Paper presented at CPHP Workshop on beyond agriculture: making markets work for the poor.

London, 28th February and 1 March 2005.

Bingen, J., Serrano, A. and Howard, J. (2003) Linking farmers to markets: different approaches to human capital development. Food Policy 28, p. 405-419 Bingsten, A., Paul, C., Stefab, D., Bernard, G., Isaksson, A., Oduro, A., Remco, O., Cathy, P., Mans, S., Sylvain, M., Francis, T, and Albert, Z (2000). Contract Flexibility and Dispute Resolution in African Manufacturing. The Journal of Development Studies 36 (4): 1-37.

Doy, D.G., Berry J.G., Green P. R. and Norris P. E. (1992). Broiler Production: Consideration For Potential Growers, OSU, Extension Facts, CES, Division of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, No : 22.

Eaton, C.S. (1998b). Adaptation performance and production constraints of contract farming in China, Department of Geography.

University of Western Australia, Perth.

Eaton, C. and Shepherd, A.W. (2001). Contract farming: Partnerships for Growth, FAO AGRICULTURAL SERVICES BULLETIN 145, Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome.

Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 2000 Eswaran, M. and Kotwal A. (1985). A theory of Contractual Structure in Agriculture. The American Economic Review 75 (3):352-368.

Etta, F. (2000). Technical Assessment of FASI Project Enhancing Women’s Participation in

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Governance through increased Access to civic information, communication technologies, IDRC, Nairobi, Kenya (April, Unpublished).

Etta, F., Aquinata, A., and Salome, K. (2001). A Study on Information and Communication Technologies and Community Development. Final Research Report, IDRC, Nairobi, Kenya (Unpublished).

___ (2007) Microfinance Policy Framework: Development of Microfinance and Delivery of Financial Services in Uganda www.finance.go.ug __. (1994). Ensuring Contract Producers’ Interests Are Protected.

Am-Coop. Washington D. C. National Council of Farmer Cooperatives: 28-32.

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2001).

Contract farming : Partnerships for growth. AGRICULTURAL SERVICES BULLETIN 145.

Moore, H. L. (1996). Tarimda Pazarlik Kooperatifleri (Bargaining Cooperatives In Agriculture), The Journal of Cooperative World, 309, p.17-22.

Government of Uganda 2001.

National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS). Programme Implementation Manual (2001).

Rehber, E. (1998). Vertical Integration in Agriculture and Contract Farming. NE 165 Private Strategies, Public Policies and Food System Performance, Food Marketing Policy Center, Working Paper 46, Connecticut, USA.

Ghee, L. T. and Dorall R. (1992).

Contract Farming in Malaysia: With a Special Reference to FELDA Land Schemes. In Contract Farming in Southeast Asia, ed. D. Glover and L.T. Ghee. 71-119. University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Institute for Advanced Studies. __. (1984). Increasing the Benefits to Small-Holders from Contract Farming: Problems for Farmers' Organisations and Policy Makers.

World Development 15 (4):441-446. __. (1992). Contract Farming and Out-grower Schemes in East and Southern Africa. Journal of Agricultural Economics 41(3):303316.

Glover, D. (1994). “Contract Farming and Commercialization of Agriculture in Developing Countries” Agricultural Commercialization, Economic Development and Nutrition (edited

by J. von Braun, Eileen Kennedy), p.

166-175. Johns Hopkins.

Government of Uganda (2001).

Plan for Modernization of Agriculture (PMA): Eradicating Poverty.

Kyamulesire, A. R. (1988). A History of the Uganda Cooperative Movement 1913-1988. Uganda Cooperative Alliance, Kampala, Uganda.

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) (2005). Opportunities for Enhancement of Agricultural Production, Value –addition and Market Access Linkages through Public-Private Sector Partnerships.

Kampala, Uganda.

Otim, J.J. (2005). Working with Farmers to improve livelihoods. A Paper presented to the members of the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry at ICRAF Nairobi.

Producer Organisations and Access to Inputs Workshop (2000).

Kampala, Uganda.

Ramaswami, R., Birthal P. S. and Joshi P. K. (2005). Efficiency and Distribution in Contract farming: The Case of Indian Poultry Growers.

Discussion Paper 05-01. Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.

Uganda National Farmers Federation Overview (1992-2005).

Warning, M and Hoo, W. S. (2000). The Impact of Contract Farming on Income Distribution: Theory and Evidence. Paper Prepared for Presentation at the Western Economics Association International Annual Meeting Watts, M. J. (1994). Life under Contract: Contract Farming, Agrarian Restructuring and Flexible Accumulation. In Living under Contract, Contract Farming, Agrarian Transformation in Sub Saharan Africa, ed. P. D. Little and M. J. Watts. 21-70. Madison, Wisconsin: The University of Wisconsin Press.

World Bank (2000d). India : Reducing Poverty, Accelerating Development. Washington, D.C. Wright, D. (1989). Contract Farming Agreements, Farm Management 7: p. 177-184.

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Soil Phosphorus – from feast to famine Professor Phil Brookes, Professor Qimei Lin and Dr. George Ayaga Summary In the West and in rapidly developing countries, for instance China, the overuse of phosphorus (P) in fertilisers and manures can cause serious eutrophication. In Sub-Saharan Africa the opposite problem – an acute shortage of P- is a more common occurrence. Here we highlight both problems and suggest some possible solutions.

Key words: African agriculture, Chinese agriculture, English agriculture, soil phosphorus drainage water

A

lmost all rivers, streams, ponds or lakes in the UK shows signs of eutrophication.

Eutrophication firstly reveals itself as excessive weed and algal growth, such as a thick layer of duckweed floating on the surface of the water, blocking out nearly all light, especially in slow moving canals and sheltered ponds . In extreme cases, there might be blooms of Cyanobacter, or blue-green algae, that can release powerful toxins which are poisonous to both animals and humans.

Sometimes fish death might also result. Blooms of blue-green algae closed some large midland reservoirs in the UK for water sports a few summers ago. Agriculture has been the dominant source of polluting nutrients entering the water and is the most likely cause of this proliferation of water weeds and other problems, although it has not been possible to quantify the amounts (Marien, 1997). Of the main nutrients, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K), usually referred to as ‘NPK’, excess P is nearly always the main cause and phosphorus concentrations as small 10 to 25 parts per billion (ppb, 10-9) in water can trigger eutrophication. It is usually the ‘limiting nutrient’, meaning that even if N (usually as nitrate) enters water, it will be used only by aquatic

plants for growth if sufficient P is already available. As soon as the P has been taken up, further N will not cause any more growth until a further pulse of P, either from recycling within the ecosystem, or as a fresh input from any source, enters the water body.

Soils from natural ecosystems, such as heaths and forests normally contain only very small concentrations of P. It is tightly recycled under these conditions and little leaves the soil–plant system to enter ground water. However, agriculture releases large amounts of P in inorganic and organic forms as runoff from unused fertiliser, animal manures and other organic wastes. Sewage treatment plants represent another source, as treatment units invariably release some P in the effluent passed directly into rivers, regardless of the care applied to control P loss.

small soil particles can move along the soil particles by surface flow or as P dissolved in rainwater and as undissolved particulates. It may also move via the wind as P adsorbed on dust particles. Indeed, thousands of years ago the Chinese ploughed across hill slopes rather that down them to avoid soil loss (and, although they did not know it, to avoid P loss as well). Nitrate can also leach down the soil profile into ground water.

However, unlike nitrate, P has long been considered to be too tightly fixed in soil to leach, except in a few special circumstances (extremely sandy or highly organic soils) or where very large amounts of organic manures have been applied recently (Fig. 1), below.

Most soils have a very high ability to fix P, which then accumulates in the surface soil.

Nevertheless, it has long been known that P which is adsorbed on

Glossary Eutrophication: degradation of water quality owing to enrichment by nutrients, primarily nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), which results in excessive plant (principally algae) growth and decay

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scientific a farmer working in the farm

New results from a 160-year-old experiment â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Broadbalk Over the last decade or so we have had to change our views on P leaching from soils as new results from the famous Broadbalk experiment at Rothamsted have emerged (Heckrath et al 1995). This experiment, established in 1840, is now the longest running field experiment in the world. It was started by Sir John Bennett Lawes and Sir John Gilbert to demonstrate to farmers that agricultural crops did not need, as was thought then, farmyard- or other manures to grow. Instead, if the correct amounts and combinations of inorganic N, P and K were given, exactly the same yields of wheat or

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other crops could be produced from either organic or inorganic sources.

This finding was a true breakthrough and literally transformed agriculture overnight. For the first time, farmers were freed from the problem of obtaining and handling bulky and scarce animal manures and could use simple inorganic salts instead. Indeed, local farmers were so grateful to Lawes and Gilbert that they commissioned a new laboratory for them to carry on their research.

The experiment, although modified frequently to keep up with modern agricultural practices, would still be recognisable to Lawes and Gilbert.

Although receiving inorganic fertilisers for 160 years and being ploughed to 23 cm depth annually, some plots, given optimum rates of fertilizer and

manures, have now given annual yields over 11 tonnes of wheat grain per hectare. There is no sign of biological, chemical or physical damage to the silty clay-loam (Batcombe series, plateau drift and clay with flints ) soils of Broadbalk and wheat has been grown virtually continuously since 1840, a finding which confounds the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;organic farmingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; lobby who proclaim the needs to rotate crops and provide animal manures as the source of fertilizer.

Each treatment consists of a single plot (the need for replication was not understood when the experiment was initiated a hundred sixty years ago) of 0.2 ha, running from the top to the bottom of the field. The fertilizer and manure treatments are much as before, although maximum N rates are now larger and modern pesticides

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and wheat varieties are used. Even now the nil plot, which has received no fertilizer of any sort since the start, still produces up to about the world average of 2.7 t grain ha-1.

To date, more than 330 scientific publications have stemmed from scientific research done on the soils and crops of this remarkable UK field (Fig. 2). The statistical techniques of analysis of variance, Student ‘t’ test and randomised block design, which are used world wide in modern field experiments, and in many other ways, all stem from the pioneering work of the Rothamsted statisticians, the late Ronald A. Fisher and Frank Yates.

They perceived the needs for sample replication at the field and laboratory scale and for determining if apparent differences between treatments were due to chance or had real meaning (i.e. were they statistically different).

Anyone who works at Rothamsted simply has to marvel at the insight of Lawes and Gilbert. Lawes was unable to finish his degree at Oxford owing to the death of his father but that did not stop him becoming one of the intellectual giants of his age (Dyke, 1983). Many of Lawes’ and Gilbert’s findings are as valid now as ever they were, even though in the 1840s it took them, or their assistants, a whole day to measure the potassium concentration of a single soil sample.

In 1995, we began working on soil P problems again, after a break of many years. Previously, Rothamsted had focussed on the value of P as a nutrient for agricultural crops. Its possible role as a pollutant of surface and ground waters was not then recognised. However, as evidence of decreasing water quality in the UK increased, it was realised that P may be involved. Remarkably, when Lawes and Gilbert established the field plots of Broadbalk they inserted a field drain at 65 cm below the soil surface and along the centre of each plot (not replaced until 1993) so that they could collect their drainage waters when the soils became wet and reached field capacity during the winter. The soils of Broadbalk gave a unique opportunity to study possible P losses in drainage water from soil to ditch and ground water. In this field each plot receives different rates of applied P fertilizer and different amounts of P are removed by the various wheat crops. Analyses of water from the drain under each plot, has shown each to contain a different concentration of plant-available P as Olsen P (about 5 – 110 mg 0.5 M NaHCO3 extractable P kg-1 soil) in the plough layer (Heckrath et al., 1995).

No-one had previously systematically studied possible P losses in water from the Broadbalk drains. First, as explained above, research at Rothamsted had focussed on P as a fertilizer.

Probably more importantly, the scientific literature made it clear that P did not leach, other than in exceptional circumstances, so there would seem little point in measurement of drainage losses of P.

The total P concentrations in the drainage water from under some of the ‘high P’ plots were over 3 mg PL-1; concentrations well over a hundred times more than is required to cause eutrophication. This was in stark contrast to all of the previous published data (Heckrath et al., 1995).

The P in the drainage waters was measured at different stages in the rainfall cycle, depending upon time of rainfall, working hours etc. The concentrations of P in drainage waters therefore varied quite widely even under the same plot, depending upon when the water was collected.

However, P started to move from soil to drainage water only when a specific soil P concentration was reached – termed the Change-Point- and this was quite independent of the drainage event. For Broadbalk the Change–Point was about 60 mg P kg-1 soil. The question was, did different soils have an identical Change-Point, and was this the same as for Broadbalk? Whether the Change-Point was the same for other soils, or different from that of Broadbalk soils, it would indicate the soil P concentration above which there would be significant risk of P leaching losses.

Unfortunately, to test this we would have needed to measure P in drainage waters from soils of different types (ranging from sandy to heavy clay) with soil P gradients from high to low concentrations – and there are very few, if any, sites with these features in Europe and certainly not in the UK. Furthermore, to collect drainage water throughout the UK in this way would have been time consuming and difficult, as we would have been totally dependent on rainfall events in the ‘leaching season’- typically from October to April. Even then it is likely the drains would have worked only for a few hours at any time, depending upon rainfall intensity. Also the waters need to be chemically analysed within

Figure 2

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hours of collection to avoid chemical changes.

In order to extract P from soil in a way that simulates the natural process, with an action approximating to that of soil solution or rainfall, and to avoid the collection of drainage water a dilute (0.01 M) calcium chloride solution has long been used as an alternative, â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;weakerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, soil extractant than Olsenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s reagent. Data from Johnston and Poulton(1993) for inorganic P soluble in 0.01M CaCl2 (CaCl2-P) and Olsen P for Rothamsted soils (including Broadbalk) were replotted and gave a relationship closely akin to that of the Broadbalk drainage water-P data (Brookes et al 1997). This indicated that laboratory extractions of Olsen P and CaCl2-P could be used to indicate if the Change-Point differed between soils (Figure 3, below).

Further work, on a range of soils from the UK, indicated considerable variations in Change-Points in different soils, measured as described above, i.e. under laboratory conditions, as these Change-Points ranged from about 29 to 110 mg Olsen P kg-1 soil (Hesketh and Brookes, 2000). Later, other work (Fortune et al. 2005) estimated that maximum total P losses from agricultural soils caused by leaching down the soil profile were estimated to be around 2 to 5 kg P ha-1. While of no economic importance to the farmer, this is a significant input to the environment which needs to be curtailed to decrease eutrophication. Fortunately, most arable crops reach a yield maximum at below 25 mg P kg-1 soil so if soil P concentrations can be maintained at around this level, P leaching losses from soil to water can be minimised, without any decrease in yield. However, many vegetables

require much larger soil P concentrations for maximum yield and animal manures are mainly disposed of to agricultural land. The net result is that average soil P concentrations of UK agriculture soils in 1993 were increasing by about 15 kg P ha-1 y-1, posing a considerable risk to water quality in UK. Since then, soil P concentrations have decreased slightly, due to decreased fertilizer use (Withers et al., 2001).

Phosphorus over-use in China Over the last decade, China has had the fastest increase in economic activity of any country of the world, with growth rates approaching 10 % per year. Agriculture has developed rapidly to match food demand, particularly around centres of rapid population growth, such as Beijing and other major cities. With a total human population currently estimated at 15.2 million, Beijing alone has brought its own environmental problems.

It is widely recognised by Chinese agronomic advisors and scientists that overuse of fertilisers and manures is an increasing agricultural problem . This is partly due to lack of information available to the farmer but also due to the sheer scale of animal production, especially that of pigs, in the periurban areas around Beijing and other major cities. Pig farms in this region are highly intensive, often with 4000 pigs per farm. Not surprisingly therefore these farms face major problems in manure disposal. In many cases it is applied directly to agricultural land for vegetable crops.

However, inorganic fertiliser is also frequently applied, with the result that soil P concentrations can reach very high concentrations. For example, in some Chinese horticultural soils OlsenP has increased to several hundred mg P kg-1 soil (Lin, 2006). Until recently, pig manure was invariably stored dry

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or in liquid forms in lagoons until it could be disposed of (Fig. 4). The risk of nutrients entering rivers and lakes from this source is self-evident and most water sources in China show much evidence of eutrophication from over-use of manures and fertilisers.

One good step forward is that some of the larger pig farms are now pelleting pig manure after machine drying and it is being bagged and exported to other areas as an organic fertiliser (Liu et al., 2007)

Figure 4

Nevertheless the problem of over use of manures and fertilisers remains and, overall, soil P is accumulating in many

agricultural regions. The inorganic chemical P fertilizer imported into agricultural soils of China has increased greatly during the last decades. About 1.2 million tonnes P fertilizer was applied in 1980, increasing by 7 % annually from 1980 to 1985, then by 12 % from 1986 to 1995, reaching 6 million tonnes by 2003 (Lin, 2003). Currently, China is the largest consumer of P fertilizer in the world, using 30% of the total production in 2002 (Prud'homme and Heffer, 2004). This problem of P accumulation in Chinese agricultural soils and its environmental implications is now recognised in China.

Accordingly, several research projects have operated over the last few years by the Chinese Agricultural University, Beijing, led by Professor Qimei Lin, the Institute of Sub-Tropical Agriculture, led by Professor Jinshui Wu, The North-West University of Agriculture and Forestry, led by Professor Jialong Lu and Rothamsted Research, led by Professor Phil Brookes, UK. Chinese funding has come from Academica Sinica and the Chinese Academy of Sciences and UK funding from the Biotechnological and Biological Sciences Research Council, the British Council and the Royal Society.

The Chinese and the UK face broadly the same problems with P. However, because of high population pressure in

large industrial cities and the massive overuse of manures and fertilizers in some areas, the Chinese problems are especially acute. Research has focused on determining rates of accumulation of P in Chinese agricultural soils, soil P concentrations at which P leaching might begin (the Change- Point), the soil P chemistry involved and a better understanding of mechanisms of P loss from soils to water.

There have been regular recent exchanges between UK and Chinese scientists and, recently, several Chinese scientists have worked in Phil Brookesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; group at Rothamsted for periods of up to a year. Dr. Xiaorong Zhao from Professor Linâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s research group at the Chinese Agricultural University (CAU), Beijing, recently worked with Phil Brookes at Rothamsted and Dr. Kathy Snars from 2006-7 in a joint BBSRCCAU project to better understand the role of the soil microbial biomass in P leaching losses in UK upland, winterwaterlogged and Chinese paddy soils.

This work is also being done jointly with the Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research, Devon, UK. In October, 2007 Miss Yuping Yu from Zhejiang University and Miss Li Chunyue from Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University, Shaanxi joined the group for 1 year. In January, 2008 Dr. Shengli Guo, also from Northwest University, joined us too as a Rothamsted International Fellow.

The soil microbial biomass can be described as a large pool of potentially available P (c.a. 100 kg P ha-1 in UK grassland, less in arable soils) (Brookes et al., 1984). This P is potentially plant-available but might also contribute to P leaching losses during the process of biomass turnover (Kouno et al., 2002). Air-drying and rewetting releases considerable amounts of P from the biomass, which may possibly contribute to P losses from soils to water (Turner and Haygarth, 2001). Waterlogging of soils (e.g. in Chinese paddy soils), also releases a significant quantity of P from the biomass (Xiaorong Zhao, unpublished data).

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Figure 5

The aim of this joint research is to provide scientific advice to farmers in intensive and small scale agricultural systems on environmentally safe upper limits of P which should be permitted to accumulate in Chinese soils. At present it is very difficult to persuade these farmers to cut back on P fertilisation. In pig-growing areas it is normal practice for farmers growing vegetables to supply soils with liberal amounts of pig manure and then to apply additional inorganic fertiliser, apparently as a precautionary measure. Our work in the UK and China has shown that soils can only retain so much P before the ChangePoint is reached and then, in addition to surface losses from erosion and runoff, P will start to move down the soil profile into ground water. In some regions, especially peri-urban areas, where manure production is excessive, it seems likely that this process is happening already. Hopefully our research will help to mitigate the problem but the current situation is analogous to China sitting on a ‘Phosphorus Time Bomb’!

to nutrient removal in crop produce exceeding nutrient inputs.

Phosphorus is often the limiting nutrient for plant growth and it has been aptly termed ‘the bottleneck of world hunger’ (Rorty, 1946). N, can be fixed by legumes from atmospheric N2. By contrast, to increase soil P availability it is necessary to add P directly, as inorganic fertilisers, composts or manures. These are generally scarce and, in the case of P fertiliser, cost can inhibit its use. In addition, many soils in this region have extremely high P fixation capacities and even if P is applied to the soil it can be ‘locked up’ by complexing with Fe or Al and can be almost completely unavailable to the growing crop. Crops grown in nutrient deficient soils are especially susceptible to attack by parasitic plants (Striga spp.) which can literally destroy a crop.

Soil phosphorus – the bottleneck of world hunger Much of the West and developing countries such as China are experiencing environmental problems caused by excessive use of P fertiliser.

However, in Sub-Saharan Africa many soils, particularly those of small scale farmers, are nutrient depleted, owing

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Figure 6

Collaborative work between the Kenyan Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) in Nairobi, Kenya and Rothamsted Research is investigating the mechanisms involved with a view to devising practical methods to increase soil P availability in this situation. Two approaches were adopted. First, by attempting to saturate the P-fixing sites in the soils through application of a large annual application of P (75 kg P ha-1), that should serve for several seasons; and second, by attempting to keep the fertilizer P in biological forms through the supply of fertilizer P and cattle manure (FYM) in combination. Here, the aim was to promote the cycling of P through the soil microbial biomass and associated metabolite pools, with an expected result of decreasing P fixation and increasing plant availability of this P.

Figure 7

These treatments were investigated at two field sites on smallholder farms in Kenya: one, considered to be a ‘high P fixing’ soil (ferro-orthic acrisols) at Malava (Kakamega District) and one considered to be a ‘low P fixing’ soil (mollic andosols) at Mau Summit (Nakuru District). The following five treatments were applied in 1997 and 1998: nil; 75 kg P ha-1 as super-phosphate (P); 25 kg P ha-1 as superphosphate; FYM at 1.9 t ha-1 dry matter; 1.9 t FYM plus 25 kg P ha-1.

All treatments also received 100 kg inorganic N ha-1. Maize was the test crop. There was no significant statistical correlation in either year at either site between soil P and maize yield, measured as NaHCO3extractable P, anion resin-extractable P

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or NaOH-extractable P. However, the results for the different soil P extraction methods (fractions) were closely correlated.. Yields at the high P rate (75 kg ha-1) were often little better than those of the control. There was, however, a significant positive relationship (P<0.05) between soil microbial biomass P and crop yield, at both sites and in both years. The treatment giving the highest grain yield and the largest soil biomass P was always FYM plus P (Ayaga and Brookes, 2006). The results indicated that the combined use of organic and inorganic fertilizers in these low input systems can promote increased biological cycling, enhanced availability and consequently improved plant uptake of soil and fertiliser P, to the advantage of the small scale farmer (Fig. 8). The results also indicated that biomass P measurements might provide a better indicator of soil P availability in these soils than some more conventional chemical procedures.

Figure 8

The aim now is to obtain further funding to test these approaches in conjunction with smallholders to see if they are also useful under normal farming conditions in Kenya and other Sub-Saharan African Countries

Professor Phil Brookes Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, UK Professor Qimei Lin China Agricultural University, Beijing, China Dr. George Ayaga Kenyan Agricultural Reseach Institute, Kenya Professor Jinshui Wu Institute for Agricultural Modernisation, Changsha, China

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References Ayaga, G. & Brookes, P.C. (2006).

Enhanced biological cycling of phosphorus increases its availability to crops in low-input sub-Saharan farming systems. Soil Biology & Biochemistry.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry. 38, 81-90.

Brookes, P.C., Powlson, D.S. & Jenkinson, D.S. (1984).Phosphorus in the soil microbial biomass.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry 16, 169-175.

Brookes, P. C., Heckrath, G., De Smet De J., Hofman. G., Vanderdeelen, J. (1997) Losses of phosphorus in drainage water. In: Phosphorus Loss from Soil to Water.

(Eds. H. Tunney, O. T. Carton, P.C. Brookes, A. E. Johnston). CAB International. 253-271.

Dyke, G. (1983) John Lawes of Rothamsted: pioneer of Science, Farming and Industry.

Hoos Press, Harpenden, UK. Fortune S., Lu J., Addiscott, T. M., Brookes P. C. (2005) Assesment of phosphorus leaching losses from arable land.

Plant and Soil. 269, 98-108.

Hesketh, N., Brookes, P.C. (2000) Development of an indicator for risk of phosphorus leaching.

Journal of Environmental Quality.

29, 105-110.

Heckrath, G., Brookes, P.C. Poulton, P.R., Goulding, K.W.T. (1995) Phosphorus leaching from soils containing different P concentration in the Broadbalk experiment.

Journal of Environmental Quality 24, 904-910.

Johnston A. E., Poulton P. R. (1993) The role of phosphorus in crop production and soil fertility: 150 years of field experiments at Rothamsted, United Kingdom. In: Phosphate Fertilizers and the Environment. (Ed. J. J. Schultz) International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, Alabama, pp. 45-63.

Kouno, K., Wu, J. ,Brookes, P.C. (2002) Turnover of biomass C and P in soils following incorporation of glu-

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cose or ryegrass.

Soil Biology and Biochemistry 24, 617-622.

Lin, Q. (2003).

The situation and prospect of Chinese phosphorus fertilizer industry (in Chinese).

China Petroleum and Chemical Industries, 1, 38-39 Zhao X., Li G., Lin Q.?2008?Interference of soil extractable phosphorus in measuring soil microbial biomass phosphorus.

Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis, 39: 1367–1374.Liu X., Luo Q., Feng Z.Zou S., Liu G. , Liu Y. (2007) Commercial organic fertilizer in China (in Chinese). Acta Agricultural Jiangxi 19, 49-52.

Marien F. (1997) European perspective on phosphorus and agriculture.

In: Phosphorus Loss from Soil to Water. (Eds. H. Tunney, O. T. Carton, P. C. Brookes) A. E. Johnston CABI Prud'homme, M., and Heffer P. (2004) World Agricultural Situation and Fertilizer Demand, Global Fertilizer Supply and Trade 2004/2005. http://www.fertilizer.org [should we establish a precedent here and request date of access, given that web sites are frequently updated?]

Rorty J. (1946) Phosphorus – the bottleneck of world hunger. Harpers Magazine.

1158, 472-480.

Turner B., Haygarth P. H. (2001) Phosphorus solubilization in rewetted soils.

Nature, 41, 258.

Withers P. J. A., Edwards A. C., Foy, R. H. (2001).

Phosphorus cycling in UK agriculture and implications for phosphorus loss from soil. Soil Use and Management 17, 139-149.

Legends to Figures.

Figure 1 Movement of P from soil to water.

Figure 2 The Broadbalk Wheat Experiment at Rothamsted, showing some of the treatments.

Figure 3 (a) P leaching from Broadbalk during five rainfall events; (b) Relationship between P extracted by CaCl2 and Olsen’s reagent ( Molybdate-extractable P can be considered to be soluble inorganic P).

Figure 4 (a) Pig manure slurry and vegetable growing on a Chinese peri-urban pig-farm, Beijing; (b) Stream adjacent to pig farm.

Figure 5 (Modified from Zhao et al.

2007). Change-Point in two Chinese soils. Soil 1 - Red soil: 1.95 % organic carbon, pH 5.5, 52 mg Olsen P kg-1 soil.

Soil 2 – Yellow soil: 2.23 % organic carbon; pH 7.0, 41 mg Olsen P kg-1 soil.

Figure 6 Striga sp.destroying a maize crop in an African farmer’s field.

Figure 7 The microbial biomass as a protected reservoir of labile P. Figure 8 Relationship between microbial biomass P and grain yield attwo Kenyan sites (From Ayaga and Brookes , 2006). White symbols – Malava; Black symbols – Mau Summitt. For treatments see box outside Figure.

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Fish from Africa for Africa ...

Professor K. Rana, Dr S.Sankoh, Dr N. Madalla and Dr K. Salie Summary Fish is a key dietary ingredient in many coastal and landlocked African countries providing much-needed high-quality protein. The WorldFish Center cites a decline in the per capita supply of such protein in subSaharan Africa (SSA) which they attribute to a decline of fish from wild fisheries and rising population in the region. This paper contends that scarcity is primarily driven by sharply rising exports and the failure of aquaculture to meet predicted shortfalls despite significant inward financial resources from donor agencies.

The availability of fish in SSA is discussed with the implication of possible non-action on other wild protein source. Pragmatic reasons beyond the frequently cited and well documented constraints for poor delivery of aquaculture are presented. Recent progress is given of small scale commercial aquaculture enterprises that are driven by strong local and regional markets. Nevertheless, it is concluded that a genuinely new approach is required to meet the 8.3 million tonnes of fish needed annually by 2020.

Key words: African aquaculture, fish farming, market requirements

I

n Africa, fish is a significant source of animal protein accounting for up to 80% of daily animal protein intake (FAO, 2007). According to the WorldFish Centre the supply of fish in Africa is in crisis. The sub-Saharan African (SSA) region is the only region of the world where there is either no notable increase in per capita supply or is declining and the apparent per capita fish consumption is the lowest in the world (WorldFish Centre, 2005).

The main reason cited for this decline in supply is the levelling off production from wild catches and growing population (WorldFish Centre, 2005).

Evaluation of recent data, however, suggest that other factors may be more important in contributing to declining national fish availability in the regions of African. This article explores availability of fish in the sub Saharan region and highlights the potential implications of inaction on other sources of animal protein and explores the potential role aquaculture could play to meet fish supply shortfalls. Based on 1997 levels, aquaculture output would have to increase by 267% by 2020 to maintain the current fish consumption level in Africa (Delgado et al. 2003). Despite numerous interventions to increase uptake of aquaculture, however, solutions to achieve this objective remains elusive.

Fish supply in SSA

et al, 2004).

Although available data on African fish production from capture fisheries is not robust, national fish landings reported to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) provide a useful insight into regional availability of fish.

Contrary to the above, fish landings from sub Saharan waters have increased significantly and outpaced global average growth by 30 fold. By 2005 nearly 5.8 million tonnes of fish were landed in SSA. Whilst global fish catch increased by just 0.1%/year between 1995 and 2005 the annual increase in landings in SSA was higher at 3.2%/year. Excluding landings from Namibia and South Africa increased landings to 3.4%/year (Figure 1). Fish landings from national Economic Exclusive Zones (EEZâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s) in the region may also be underreported as under resourced countries, take advantage of provisions within the United Nations Convention on the Law of the sea to grant fishing rights to foreign vessels to exploit their fisheries resources.

(Aqorau, 2007). These vessels typically do not land their catch in local markets but rather export directly to more lucrative markets where the prices are higher. The European Union (EU) has consistently had the largest foreign fleet presence off West Africa, with EU fish harvests there increasing by a factor of 20 from 1950 to 2001 (Justin

The EU financial support of its foreign fleet fishing in these foreign waters increased from about $6 million in 1981 to more than $350 million in 2001 with the effect of artificially increasing the profitability of fishing in African waters for EU boats, despite declining fish stocks (Justin et al.

2004).

The increases in fish catches were also higher than sub regional increases in population growth. Whilst fisheries in SSA grew by 3-4%/year, the average population increase in SSA was lower, at 2.5%/year between 2000 and 2005 (Table 1) and even lower in Southern Africa (1%/year). These data suggest that, at the sub-regional level, reduced fish availability may be attributable to other factors, notably exports which are encouraged under the Abuja Declaration on Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture in Africa (available at: www.fishforall.org/ffasummit/outcomes.asp ).

Removable of fish from African countries to international markets Fish is a valuable resource that is in high global demand. This together with the pressing need for foreign exchange by African countries to

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import basic goods and services and limited tradable resources has necessitated a significant shift in diverting fish from local to international markets where fish fetches higher prices. In the last 15 years exports increased exponentially 3 fold in tonnage from 248 million tonnes to 728 million tonnes and 4 fold in value form $ 427 million to $1.34 billion. This understandable national strategy, however, has contributed further to growing trade deficits as significant qualities of fish, albeit of lower unit value are imported into the region.

In all sub regions except east Africa fish availability is stabilised though substantial imports resulting in similar or slight increases in apparent fish consumption in the last decade raising doubts on the contention that exports contribute to foreign exchange earnings. The sub region where apparent fish consumption has notably declined is the riparian countries of east Africa. The decline in consumption in east Africa however, is probably higher as the bulk of the export production are fillets and therefore the whole weights are likely to be underestimated. More appropriate adjustments for round weight in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda would suggest that the caput supplies were lower at 2.3, 6.0 and 6.3 kg/capita/year instead of the reported 3.6, 7.0 and 7.7, respectively.

Role of wild fish in rural communities Fish also plays a crucial role in household nutrition providing valuable and much needed high quality protein. Recent studies on fish consumption in fishing and nonfishing communities in Nigeria has shown that twice as much fish is consumed in fishing communities when compared to non fishing communities (Gomna and Rana, 2007) and that consumption can exceed 100kg/household/year, up to four times that of meat consumed (Table

3). Such high level of fish consumption, however, is probably due to there being no direct monetary cost for the fish and underlines the importance of managing open assess wild artesianal fresh and marine water fisheries stocks in the region.

The long term availability of such fish, especially from fresh waters, may however be compromised by current practices. In Sierra Leone, for example, destructive fishing methods, whereby the seasonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s juvenile fish in flood plains are caught, often daily by children, without allowing them to grow to mature sizes could be a factor feeding into the shortages in fish supply in the market.

Impact and importance of fish protein availability on other wild animal protein sources Fish makes a significant contribution to animal protein intake in the region contributing an average of 40% of the animal protein intake in sub-Saharan Africa (available at: http://www.fao.org. ). This share, however, is highest in West Africa accounting for 69% in Senegal, 80% in Gambia 79% in Sierra Leone and 67% in Ghana. Reduction in the availability of fish therefore can place pressure on other sources of animal protein. Recent studies in West Africa have illustrated that fish supply is causally related to bush meat availability (Justin S. et al. 2004). When fish becomes scarce hunting pressure increases and other wild life declines due to the diversion to these protein resources.

Can aquaculture play a role to meet fish supply shortfalls?

In the light of decreasing fish availability, the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) endorsed an action plan, focusing on supporting capture fisheries;

improving fish market chains and increasing benefits from fish trade and supporting decision makers with such information and developing aquaculture (NEPAD, 2005).

Fish farming which incurs production costs, however, is often promoted in resource poor environments is expected to restore fish supplies from capture, a purely extraction based activity by asset deficient fishers and rural farmers. Understandably, efforts to promote aquaculture to date, as the panacea to remedy fish supply shortfalls and promote food security since the 60â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s have repeatedly failed despite international and donor agencies having injected millions of dollars. To date these agencies were also unable to convincingly demonstrate the financial rewards of aquaculture to potential local investors and substantiated the scepticism of financial institutions and discouraged investment in the sector.

Reasons for poor delivery from African aquaculture have been repeatedly debated and have been well documented since the Kyoto conference of 1972. Limited institutional and human capacity and inadequate supply of fish feeds, seed and prohibitive transaction costs are frequently cited as constraints but non-delivery of these interventions for aquaculture development by international and national agencies is more probably attributable to (i) the homogeneous approach by development agencies to the 54 African countries on a continent that is collectively larger than United States of America, Europe and China; (ii) minimal ownership and perceived relevance of the research often dictated and directed by foreign experts primarily aimed at subsistence farming (iii) inadequate financial resources and commitment by national institutions to meet their post-project obligations; (iv) low morale and poor career structure for those charged with service delivery and governance; (v) failure to understand the cultural

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scientific ‘In view of the low and unpredictable production from such system subsistence fish farming is unlikely to make any measurable contribution to national fish supply shortfalls’ context of envisaged programmes, (vi) unconducive traditional land tenure systems, (vii) limited access to water resources despite the continent having abundant natural resources (viii) high cost of and poor accessibility to finance and collateral, (ix) a low appreciation of time management of households in target communities and (x) limited capacity by end users to manage the inherent risks of an alien activity.

In addition, the lack or weak policies and regulations are often cited as constraints. On the contrary, sound policies do exist but experience shows that even if these instruments are or were in place the resources and commitment required for implementing such instruments are lacking. In the case of South Africa aquaculture uptake is hampered by overregulation and non transparent application of regulations and inappropriate application of first world policies for a socio-economic development agenda more akin to developing countries.

As a consequence aquaculture has remained a subsistence activity at best, further exasperated by a largely rural population and a poor rural economy in which disposable income is scarce. Production of fish is casual in small homestead farms and such an approach is unlikely to meet the predicted shortfalls of fish for the region (Figure 6). Such subsistence activity, nevertheless, arguably plays an important role in rural livelihoods.

In the region it is estimated that there are around 110 000 noncommercial fish farmers many of whom are classified as small scale subsistence farmers (Hecht, 2005).

Whilst production from such systems is low, non-commercial aquaculture does play an important role in rural livelihoods, through contributing to food and nutritional security, and through temporary and part time jobs (Hecht, 2005).

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In rural communities the integration of fish farming with agriculture (IAA) can also enhance income for household. Studies in Malawi have shown that income of households adopting IAA practices were 1.5-1.8 times that if no aquaculture was practised. (Dey et al. 2006). Other studies suggest that fish contributes between 1-17% of household income (Andrew, et al. 2003). Similarly in Ghana, the income from a combination broiler and fish were 57% higher than if fish was only farmed. (Ofori, 2000).

In view of the low and unpredictable production from such systems, subsistence fish farming is unlikely to make any measurable contribution to national fish supply shortfalls.

New initiatives aimed at addressing these and other challenges of inward investment to promote aquaculture have recently been launched through NEPAD (WorldFish Center, 2005).

The way forward – transformation from subsistence to profit based farming activity Prior to the recent NEPAD initiatives progress has been made in small scale commercial aquaculture. In recent years, the combination of rapid urbanisation in Africa (7-10%/year), declining fish supplies, rising fish prices and strong domestic and regional markets has created an opportunity for small scale commercial aquaculture around many African cities (Rana, et al, 2005). These key drivers combined with the preference for fresh fish has provided the necessary impetus for urban and periurban aquaculture enterprises with local investments. Such developments, however, will still have to contend with the importation of large quantities of cheap often subsidised fish such as frozen herring, mackerel and other frozen marine fish which

dominates imports, accounting for around 70% of total imported quantity in 2005 (FAO, 2007). One explanation for their popularity is their low unit price of USD$ 0.5-0.7/kg, a price level which may well influence the current cost ceiling of any aqua farming activity. It is highly likely that as long as these conditions prevail aquaculture producers in urban and peri-urban zones will not be able to compete with these cheap imports and therefore aquafarmers may have to also focus on niche markets for large, live or fresh fish taking due cognisance of productivity, market preferences and investment risks and time. Nevertheless local private investment often by retired professionals, local businesses, individuals with savings have entered the aquaculture sector with expectations of meeting strong local demand and diversifying their income portfolios. This has resulted in a range of outcomes, the most notable being farming in and around cities.

Such small scale commercial periurban farming is most advanced in Nigeria where catfish is sold live at farm gates and in markets fetching Naira 300-400/kg in cities such as Lagos and Ibadan and Abuja. Such farms often use simple recirculatory systems especially in cities (Figure 8b) and ponds in peri-urban areas with production capacities of 10-600 tonnes/year/farm. Catfish are now grown at stocking densities of up to 300kg/m3 and fed on farm made pelleted diets and imported commercial diets.

The transformation of aquaculture from subsistence to economically viable enterprises is also taking place in several countries although many of these operations are still based on a low input low output scenario with yields typically around 500 – 1000 kg/ha. In Malawi around 4,050 farmers were faming fish in 9,500 ponds in 2002 (JICA, 2005).

Two notable commercial operations

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have emerged in Malawi. A large-scale cage culture operation that is aiming to produce between 2,000 and 3,000 tonnes of Oreochromis karongae using a pond based system for fingerling production and circular floating cages for outgrowing in Lake Malawi. The second is a medium scale 8 ha pond culture operation in the Lower Shire valley at Kasinthula producting Oreochromis mossambicus and Cyprinus carpio.

Perhaps the most significant commercial finfish culture operation in SSA is situated on lake Kariba in Zimbabwe with a fully equipped fish processing and packing facility with an

inventory of around 3000 tonnes of Nile tilapia (P. Blow, personal comm.).

This farm, however, exports most of its fish as fillets to the EU but in the last few years are taking advantage of the rapidly growing local and regional markets for fresh fish in Southern Africa.

In terms of unit value aquaculture development is probably most significant in South Africa where notable success has been achieved with abalone culture in capital and labour intensive farms (Figure 9) for export. In 2005, South Africa produced 830 tonnes of abalone for the export market worth $28 million.

Smaller scale commercial production of rainbow trout has also been sustained. By 2005, 13 rainbow trout farms under the “Hands-On Aquaculture cooperative” scheme have been established to improve the living standards of Western Cape rural communities. To ensure sustainability the co-operative has signed a longterm market-uptake agreement for 200 tons of trout per annum with a local smokehouse. Individual farmers produce up to 6 tons per annum in cages sited in irrigation dams and creating further opportunity for additional local employment in secondary service sectors such as processing.

Rana, K 1,2; Sankoh, S 1; Madalla, N 1; Salie, K 2

1. Institute of Aquaculture, Stirling University, 2. University of Stellenbosch Corresponding author: kjr3@stir.ac.uk

Conclusions Despite the reported total increase in fish landing of over 1.7 million tonnes between 1990- 2005 in SSA being higher than the rate of population increase, the per capita supply of fish in parts of the region has declined. In regions were there was a slight increase in capita supply, this was achieved with imports of 1.77 million tonnes of fish at a cost of USD 1.5 billion in 2005. In the last 15 years exports increased 3 fold in tonnage and 4 fold in value ( (not adjusted for inflation). This increase has/is removing large qualities of fish away from national supply in part facilitated by subsidised foreign fishing fleets.

Aquaculture is portrayed as an alternative to meet shortfalls in current and future fish supplies. To date, however, aquaculture has failed to deliver largely due to lack of perceived and tangible economical benefits of the activity. Recent rising fish prices and strong domestic and regional markets have been recognised by local investors and commercial enterprises are emerging, especially in urban and peri-urban zones, using home-grown technologies. Recently NEPAD has launched a comprehensive initiative to consolidate and expand the aquaculture sector in Africa. Given the history of aquaculture development to date, the degree of success will depend on the capacity of its executors to come up with genuinely new and fresh approaches to well documented constraints to ensure future fish supplies. By 2020, SSA will require supplies of 8.3 million tonnes of fish annually for a predicted population of over a billion (UNESA, 2007) at current per caput supply of 7.7kg/capita/year (FAO, 2007).

References Andrew, A. G., Weyl, O., Andrew, M. (2003).

Aquaculture Masterplan development in Malawi.

Socio-economic survey report. Enviro-fish Africa, Grahamastown, South Africa. 77pp.

Aqorau (2007). Moving towards a rights-based fisheries management regime for the tuna fisheries in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean. The International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, 22, no. 1, pp. 125-142.

Delgado, C. L.; Wada, N.; Rosegrant, M. W.; Meijer, S., and Ahmed, M. (2003) Fish to 2020: Supply and demand in a changing world. Washington DC: IFPRI. Dey, M. M., Kambewa, P., Prein, M., Jamu, D., Paraguas F. J., Pemsel, D. E., Briones, R. M. (2006).

Impact of development and dissemination of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technologies in Malawi. NAGA, WFC quarterly. 29:1&2. 28-35.

FAO FISHTAT Plus (2007). Universal software for fishery statistical time series. Vers. 2.30.

Fisheries Department, Fishery Information, Data and Statistics Unit. Rome. Available at: http://www.fao.org/fi/statist/FISOFT/FISHPLUS.asp.

hunting, wildlife declines, and fish supply in

Gomna A. and Rana, K (2007). Inter-household and intra-household patterns of fish and meat consumption in fishing communities in two states in Nigeria. British Journal of Nutrition.97, 145–152.

NEPAD (2005). NEPAD Action Plan for the development of African fisheries and aquaculture

Hecht, T. (2005). Regional review on aquaculture development. 4. Sub-Saharan Africa. FAO Fisheries Circular. No. 1017/4, Rome, FAO 2006. 96pp.

JICA ( 2005). Master Plan Study on Aquaculture Development in Malawi- 2006-2015.

Ministry of Mines, Natural Resources and Environment Department of Fisheries, Republic of Malawi. 228pp.

Justin, S. B., Arcese, P., Sam, M. K., Coppolillo, P. B., Sinclair, A. R. E., Balmford, A., (2004). Bush meat

West Africa. Science. 306, 1180-1182.

Ofori J, K. ( 2000). Status and trends of Integrated agriculture-aquaculture in Ghana. P 36-37 In. E. K. Aban, C. M. V. Casal, Falk and RSV Pulin (eds).

Biodiversity and sustainable use fish in coastal zones.

ICLARM conference proc. 63. 71pp.

Rana, K., Anyila, J., Salie, K., Mahika, C., Heck, S., and Young, J. ( 2005). The Role of Aqua Farming in Feeding African Cities. UA Magazine. 14. 36-39.

UNESA, (2007). United Nations Population Division in the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Available at www.un.org/esa/population/ WorldFish Center.

(2005). Fish and Food Security in Africa. World Fish Center, Penang, Malaysia. p12.

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book review

The Royal Society: Sustainable Agriculture

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wo consecutive publications of The Royal Society appeared in February 2008. These are entitled Sustainable agriculture I and Sustainable agriculture II (Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society. 363, No.1491, 443-680 & 363, No.1492, 681-913, Eds: Pollock, C. , Pretty, J. , Crute, I. , Leaver, C . & Dalton , H.).

These publications include 31 papers in which the various authors use a total of over 3000 references to other works. The papers present potential problems to be confronted, approaches that should be adopted, techniques for the longer term development of world agriculture and what should be done to counteract the effects of climate change in the presence of an ever-growing world population.

The subjects covered include plant and animal breeding, genetics and diseases, ecology, conservation, biodiversity and essential intensification, pests, weeds and land management; modelling for the necessary changes in global agriculture, water use, nutrient management, pollution and biotic and abiotic interactions with soil health and ecology, greenhouse gases and Csequestration and many other issues.

The document indicates that the present rate of total world food production is adequate in energy terms, excluding the problems associated with distribution and regional climatic adversities. World food production has grown by 145 % since 1960, during which time world population has increased from 3 billion to 6 billion. However, since the 1980s this productivity has been at the expense of usable global stores of carbon. Over the past 30 years, increasingly the demands on the biosphere have exceeded the biosphere’s regenerative capacity. In 2003 this was so to the extent of 23 %, whereas in 1961 humanity demanded only half the biosphere’s total capacity for regeneration. Man’s ecological footprint has grown by more than 700 % since 1961. Our resources have been harvested, especially by deforestation, and wastes have accumulated, for example, as atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2-eq. Agriculture occupies 37 % of the world’s land surface and accounts for 80-90 % of water use by humans. Agriculture and agro-forestry have major roles to play in influencing climate change, as those activities release to the atmosphere significant amounts of CO2, CH4 and

N2O and agriculture accounts for 52 % and 84 % respectively of the global anthropogenic CH4 and N2O emissions. Smith, Martino et al state that the global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030, considering all gases, is estimated to be 5500-6000Mt CO2eq.yr-1, but the economic potential will vary with carbon price per t CO2eq.

Agriculture is the main world-wide source of greenhouse gases. The issue is how should agriculture be managed so that output increases to match population growth over the next fifty years, whilst its contribution to greenhouse gases is reduced in a way for which the costs are acceptable.

This is defined by mitigation strategies.

Mitigation is limited by finite ecological sequestration and by “a limited market penetration potential of capital intensive strategies, like biofuels”.

The sequestration capacity is assumed to be saturated after 50-100 years and likely to be less than the sink of remaining fossil fuels. Smith, Martino et al have produced data for the relationship between the marginal reduction in greenhouse gas emissions irrigation water sprinkler

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book review ‘What is missing is an adequate account of the social and economic drivers that will determine how the system will respond – the central questions remains how society will balance the demands it places on the resource base with the availability of such resources’ and its costs of implementation. This is described as the mitigation achieved for a given carbon equivalent price, defined by “a marginal abatement curve (MAC) for each agricultural practice in each region”. Carbon prices up to 20, up to 50 and up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq-1 are assumed.

Although agriculture has the potential to offset, at full biophysical potential, about 20% of the total annual CO2 emissions, the likely offsets are 5% to 14% over the price ranges proposed.

Of these total mitigation potentials approximately 89 % is from reduced soil emissions of CO2, approximately 9 % from mitigation of methane and approximately 2 % from mitigation of soil N2O emissions. If high C prices obtain, the mitigation potential from biomass energy far outstrips that from food production, assuming adequate food production. The importance of the adoption of husbandry procedures that maximise economic net annual mitigation is absolutely essential, whilst producing adequate crops; but there is a finite limit to the quantity of C-equivalent that various soils can retain (saturation). Once that limit is reached no further annual mitigation can be achieved for that soil. Practices such as agro-forestry should extend that limit in appropriate cases.

of certainty for any world region. The degree to which world agriculture, especially in developing regions, can be expected to adopt management systems to bring about mitigation, especially important in Asia and South America, at increased cost may be doubtful without a concerted worldwide agreement. The value of this review must be in pointing to those changes in agricultural systems, subject to repeated review, that should have the greatest impact on mitigation and have the most benefit to sustainable agricultural and agroforestry production over the coming decades, whilst increasing food production. The quantitative values produced are less reliable- although uncertainty ranges are given.

Smith, Martino et al have made a brave attempt to quantify agriculture’s capacity to contribute to the containment of climate change. There are “barriers to implementation which may not be overcome without policy/economic incentives” (extremely unlikely to be without these). Although the likely demands of increasing world population are reasonably predictable, the rate and effect of climate change and its influence on agricultural production cannot be predicted with any degree

The Introductions to the two volumes effect definitions of the term “sustainable” as “processes that can maintain the required level of output in a way that compromises future capacity as little as possible--- and (that) do what is feasible to protect the long-term future, the production capacity and ecological well being of the land. ----sustainability both in terms of optimizing inputs and management and in terms of mitigating adverse impacts, including those involved in climate change”.

However, as the editors state that

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The two volume review is an important contribution to our comprehension of what needs to be done. “What is missing is an adequate account of the social and economic drivers that will determine how the system will respond – the central questions remains how society will balance the demands it places on the resource base with the availability of such resources.” (personal communication, Professor Sir John Marsh).

“agriculture in the twenty-first century will have to be very different from agriculture in the twentieth century”, the term ‘sustainable’ seems to carry with it the implication of continuous change. ‘Sustainable’ has a variety of definitions and as it is impossible to choose an agricultural system which will remain economically efficient for the next several decades it is perhaps not the best term to employ in a scientific treatise. It could be argued that the present malnutrition of much of the world will remain sustainableperhaps the words ‘desirable’ would be marginally better.

The two documents represent an important contribution to the debate and one hopes that world policy makers will take action consistent with the conclusions reached. Nevertheless, as consumption by the individual rises, it is also probable that without a halt to population growth world prospects are bleak.

The Editor – Dr David Frape

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Africaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Mount Kilimanjaro is the tallest freestanding mountain in the world

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instructions

World Agriculture: problems and potential Instruction to contributors

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his international Journal publishes articles based upon scientifically derived evidence that address problems and issues confronting world agriculture and food supplies at present, or that are likely to do so during this century.

Authors will be encouraged to take a critical approach to world-wide issues and advance new concepts. Authors wishing to submit an unsolicited article should in the first instance send a short summary of their intended paper in English by electronic mail to the Editor. The journal will publish suitable articles on agriculture and horticulture and their climatic, ecological, economic and social interactions. Relevant aspects of forestry and fisheries as well as food storage and distribution will also be acceptable.

The Journal will not be available for communication of original experimental work, although original deductions from existing information are welcome. Statements must be based on sound scientifically derived evidence and all arguments must be rational and logically derived. Typical article lengths will be 1 000 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 3 000 words with photographs, where relevant, and figures, line drawings and tables. Articles outside these lengths may be acceptable, if the length can be justified. The Journal has three Sections: (1) Scientific, (2) Economic & Social, and (3) Comment & Opinion. It also accepts Letters to the Editor and includes Book Reviews and Editorials. Statements of fact in the first two Sections must be based on evidence from other peer-reviewed publications to which full reference must be given. For the third Section references are not essential, but statements must be based on considerable experience and be logically argued. All papers received

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will be subject to review by two or more scrutineers before acceptance.

Articles that pose questions and raise issues for which answers are needed will be accepted if they meet the necessary criteria following rigorous examination. Such questions may for example, describe an economic or husbandry problem in a developing country or ocean, resulting from climate change or some unintended consequence of policy, for which no clear solution is at hand.

World Agriculture will produce one volume each year with Issue numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4 occurring within each volume. Page numbers will run consecutively throughout each volume from page one onwards.

Sections The Journal has three main Sections: (1) Scientific, (2) Economic & Social, and (3) Comment & Opinion. It also accepts Letters to the Editor and includes Book Reviews and Editorials.

Scientific, Economic and Social Statements of fact in the first two Sections must be based on evidence from other peer-reviewed publications to which full reference must be given.

Comment and Opinion For the third Section references are not essential although they should be used to justify initial statements where appropriate. Statements must be based on considerable experience and be logically argued. Articles that pose questions and raise issues for which answers are needed will be accepted if they meet the necessary criteria following rigorous examination. Such questions may for example, describe an economic or husbandry problem in a developing country or ocean,

resulting from climate change or some unintended consequence of policy, for which no clear solution is at hand.

Layout and typing instructions SI units and the English language must be used, the spelling being generally that of the Concise Oxford Dictionary, 9th Ed. Standard abbreviations (e.g. Fig. and Figs) are acceptable, but specialist abbreviations and terms should be defined immediately beneath the Summary.

Full stops are not used in commonly accepted abbreviations (e.g. USA, UK) and should not be used when an abbreviated word ends with the same letter as the complete word (e.g., Florida as FA and cultivar as cv.). Latin terms such as circa should be italicised and ca is the abbreviation.

Commercial chemicals should be referred to by their approved common name (e.g. benomyl) but where a proprietary name is relevant and unavoidable it should be used with a capital initial and the manufacturer named at the first mention (e.g.

Benlate, Du Pont (UK) Ltd).

Concentrations and rates of application should be clearly expressed and unambiguous, not using, for example, ppm., but using mg/litre, or mg/L, mg/kg etc.

Dates should be expressed as day, month, year, as for example,18th May, 2005.

The full Latin name of an organism should be given at the first mention, e.g. Heterodera avenae; an abbreviated name of the organism may be used for subsequent mentions, e.g. H. avenae.

Always use numerals for specific units

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instructions of measurement (e.g. 14 m, 2 d, 3 wk). For other quantities up to and including nine, spell out in full (e.g. four plots, two experiments, nine larvae). Use numerals in all instances for ten or over (e.g. 20 fields).

Large numbers should be separated by spaces every 000, rather than by use of a comma, e.g., 10 000.

Key words The authors should supply two or three key words, or phrases (each containing up to three words) for the subject index of the volume and for Internet search use. These should be listed under the Summary.

Sequence of headings Each paper should commence with a short concise, accurate and informative Summary, normally of approximately 250 words, that includes the issues posed, the subject covered and the conclusions drawn.

The Introduction should set out the background to the subject. This is to be followed by the main body of the paper in sections each of which is headed by terms defined by the nature of the paper, for example: Background, Review of evidence, the present situation, Problems to be confronted and Resolution. The paper should conclude with Discussion and/or Conclusions sections and finally References. Layout of headings should follow the guidance below: Title, bold 16 point Author name and affiliation Main headings central bold Arial 14 point font Secondary headings: left justified, bold Arial 12 point font Tertiary level: left justified, Arial 12 point font Quaternary (if necessary) left justified, Arial 12 point italics Tables, figures, line drawings, photographs and graphs Tables with suitable titles must be numbered using Arabic numerals in sequence and be understandable without reference to the text. Where tables are to be inserted should be

identified within the body of the text.

Table headings should identify the Table and number in Times New Roman 12 point, with the title italicized. Use a horizontal line to separate column headings from data and at the end of the table; avoid column lines. Excessive numbers of columns should be avoided.

Illustrations in the form of text figures, line drawings, computer generated figures and graphs with their captions should all be comprehensible without reference to the text. All photographs should be half tone or colour, have a high definition (>5 million pixels/photo), and the software should be IBM/DOS compatible. Each photograph should be adequately identified with the author, paper and plate number.

Photographs submitted electronically must be in jpg files with the essential information included in the properties box for the file. Alternatively, photographs may be posted to the Editor on disc (request address by email). The plate number, authors and an indication of the paper title should also be given in a separate electronic file. Electronic-mail is satisfactory for correspondence, text and tables.

Standard deviations, standard errors of the means and “n”, the number of observations associated with each mean, should all be presented. Figure and photograph headings should identify the Figure number in Times New Roman 12 point, with the title italicized.

References and citations Papers should be fully referenced using the Harvard system in the format: author(s), each followed by their initials, the year of publication, the title of the paper, the journal title in full and in italics, the Volume number in heavy type, the Issue number, the first and last page numbers. Examples: Regan, D. & Smith, A. (1979) Electrical responses evoked from the human brain. Scientific American, 241, 134-52.

Klass, D.W. (ed.) Current practice of clinical electroencephalography. New York, Raven Press, 1979.

Citation of authors in the text should appear in the form: Smith et al. (2005) or (Smith et al. 2005). More than one author should be cited in chronological order as: (Marcus 2004; Cinti 2005). If the same authors are quoted twice in a year, but in two papers the terms: (2005a; 2005b) should be used. If the same first author is quoted in two papers in a year, but with different co-authors then a list of a sufficient number of them should be given to make it clear to which paper the reference relates: (Smith, Atkins, Jeans et al. 2005), (Smith, Atkins, Sparks et al. 2005).

Communications with the Editor for publication Comments & Opinion and Letters to the Editor by e-mail will also be considered for publication. These should be concise and submitted for the purpose of making objective comments on published articles, or on important subjects that have not been covered.

Submission, Editing and Acceptance Manuscripts should be formatted to A4 justified and use MS Word 12 pt Times New Roman font. Author’s names, qualifications, honours, affiliations should be included and submission will assume that the author accepts the conditions laid down in these Instructions to Contributors and that copyright is held by World Agriculture: problems and potential Manuscripts should be submitted to the Editor by electronic mail, with the address of: editor@world-agriculture.net Articles that are accepted by the editorial board will be edited and the Editor reserves the right to modify statements made by the author, or to ask for a revision, although the edited versions will be sent to the author for his or her agreement before publication. The author’s response must occur within 96 h. Moreover, during the revision process it is essential that authors respond quickly and reliably to requests for amendments, otherwise the publication deadline will be forfeited.

WORLD AGRICULTURE

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looking ahead

World Agriculture: potential future articles Dr Tony Greer Planting Paradise â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the challenges and opportunity costs of land development in North Borneo Professor J. Perry Gustafson, Dr Norman E. Borlaug and Dr Peter H. Raven World Food Supply and Biodiversity Dr John Sheehy Rice research, International Rice Research Institute, Manila, Philippines Lord Dick Taverne The Myths of Organic Farming, Member of Science and Technology Committee, House of Lords, UK Prof.James Muir and Dr Malcolm Beveridge New perspectives on aquaculture in Africa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; success at last? University of Stirling and Freshwater Fisheries Lab at Pitlochry Dr John Beardmore Adaptation of fish stocks to changing climate, University of Swansea Prof. David Atkinson The science behind organic agriculture, Blackburn, Aberdeenshire, previously Vice-principal, Scottish Agricultural College, Edinburgh Prof. Allan Buckwell The economics of British agriculture, County Land & Business Association Drs Ross and Telfer Impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture, University of Stirling Caroline Drummond Integrated Crop Management Scheme (ICM), reducing the impact of agriculture and maintaining output; Examples from LEAF in the UK

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Published by Wharncliffe Publishing, 47 Church Street, Barnsley, South Yorkshire S70 2AS

inside back page

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Dear readers,

If you wish to receive regular Issues of this Journal please complete the strip and post it to: Circulation Department, Wharncliffe Publishing, 47 Church Street, Barnsley, South Yorkshire S70 2AS. Or fill in the form online at www.world-agriculture.net If you wish to place an advertisement in future Issues please in the first instance contact the Publishers by e-mail editor@world-agriculture.net or by post: World Agriculture, Wharncliffe Publishing, 47 Church Street, Barnsley, South Yorkshire, S70 2AS. If you wish to submit an article for consideration by the Editorial Board for inclusion in a Section of World Agriculture: a) Scientific b) Economic & Social c)Opinion & Comment, or d)a Letter to the Editor, please follow the Instructions to Contributors printed on Page 46 of this Issue and submit by e-mail to the Editor at the address given at the end of the Instructions.

For further information about World Agriculture please go to the following web address: www.world-agriculture.net Yours faithfully, David Frape

Name ..........................................................................................................

Business Address ......................................................................................... ................................. Email ..........................................................................

Contact number ..........................................................................................

Job title ........................................................................................................

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