VII. SECONDARY EFFECTS

VII. SECONDARY EFFECTS

EMPLOYMENT

A 2014 survey from the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) found that solar plants the size of those proposed in Rajasthan (about 1 MW) generated the following direct employment:147

Table 6: Solar Plant Job and Employment Creation

Short-Term Phase A: Median Jobs Required

B: Median Duration/Job C: Med. Person Days/MW D: Median FTE/MW

Business Development (Skilled) Design/Pre-Const. (Skilled) Const./Commissioning (Skilled) Const./Commissioning (Unskilled) 5 75 days 99 0.38

7 90 days 142 0.55

20 120 days 980 3.77

50 100 days 2,200 8.46

Long-Term Phase

Operations/Maint. (Skilled) Operations/Maint. (Unskilled)

E: Median Employees/Yr.

3

7

F: Median FTE/MW/Yr.

1.20

2.31

To determine actual solar job market numbers, NRDC and the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW) developed a questionnaire for solar PV power plants. (Source: NRDC 2014).

These results suggest that for every megawatt of solar capacity installed, 82 jobs (Column A) equal to about thirteen full-time positions (Column D) will be needed for Business Development, Design and Pre-Construction, and Construction and Commissioning. Further, ten jobs (Column E) equal to about 3.5 permanent, full-time positions (Column F) will be needed for Operations and Maintenance every year post-installation. As Rajasthan has plans to install 4 GW of distributed power by 2025, one should expect 52,000 short-term FTE jobs (which would all disappear after 2025) and 14,000 permanent FTE jobs/year thereafter if targets are met. About 80,000 short-term FTE jobs and 21,500 permanent FTE jobs/year would be expected in a full penetration scenario of 6,121 MW. Most permanent jobs would be unskilled (groundskeepers, line tenders, etc.), offering gainful employment opportunities to women and youth who would otherwise be excluded from the labor force. 148

Because farmers are the owner-operators of their own solar pumps, the solar pump model should not generate the same level of employment as the solar feeder model, which would demand more in terms of engineering, construction, and long-term operations.

NRDC’s questionnaire did not concern jobs created from manufacturing and other solar applications, both of which might be considerable in Rajasthan: ReNew Power’s 2,000 MW manufacturing facility should, per the company’s press release, create roughly 2,000 jobs.149 Other indirect jobs would likely come with solarization, including meter readers and a variety of business service positions. However, should solarization have detrimental effects on the water supply, indirect job losses in the agriculture sector might counteract some of these gains. An robust and comprehensive of solarization’s total employment potential must include this caveat.

EQUITY

Because KUSUM targets farmers, it inherently serves some of Indian’s most vulnerable people. Yet even with this goal, it is possible that KUSUM could exacerbate inequalities in agricultural areas rather than relieving them. As a state where the majority of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, this is especially vital to consider in the context of Rajasthan. For solar feeders, the main risk to equity is unequal water usage, while for solar pumps the initial barriers to entry (land ownership, capital to invest in pumps of qualifying size, and awareness of the scheme) pose obstacles marginalized groups may not be able to overcome.

Disadvantaged Groups and Access to KUSUM

While previous sections of this report discussed various risks and benefits to farmers participating in KUSUM, this section focuses on farmers who are likely to be excluded from the program entirely. They fall into several categories:

• Those who do not own land. Out of the 40 million agricultural workers in Rajasthan, about 40 percent are landless.150 In recent years the portion of landless farm workers has grown across India as small farmers faced with shrinking livelihoods are forced to sell their land.151 Landless farmers cannot benefit from land lease-related income, and as they tend to be more financially distressed than larger farmers, are less likely to be able to invest in solar pumps. As discussed, if the FiT is set high enough that participating farmers will sell back to the grid and barely participate in the informal water exchanges, landless farmers who depend on these water markets will stand to lose water access. However if water usage is well-managed the increased irrigation and more productive farms brought about through solarization could lead to more employment for landless workers.

• Those who do not own pumps. Small and marginal farmers, who constitute almost 60 percent of Rajasthan’s total land area, rarely own electric pumps.152 They irrigate either by purchasing water from their neighbors or by renting diesel pumps. These farmers are concentrated on the lower end of both the income scale and caste hierarchy and tend to have smaller landholdings. They may not stand to benefit from KUSUM and may interact with the scheme only indirectly, through its impacts on informal trading, and prices paid for that water.153

If the FiT is set too high for grid-connected pumps, KUSUM may drive up water prices and reduce water access for those without pumps. This is because farmers may reap greater profits from selling electricity to the grid rather than selling water to neighbors. Though only a small proportion of farmers are eligible for KUSUM, a much larger proportion will experience a change in welfare through the scheme’s effects on water.

• Those with pumps higher than 7.5 HP. Among farmers in Rajasthan who own electric pumps or other forms of tubewell or surface lifting water devices, most own devices over 7.5 HP. Other states’ experience suggests group pump ownership offers beneficial opportunities for farmers by coordinating purchases of 70-80 HP pumps, with strength scaled up in accordance with the depth of the local water table. A joint ownership arrangement would allow these farmers to buy pumps and access groundwater previously unreachable to them independently. However, under current

KUSUM guidelines, small farmers participating in these informal groups may be left out because of the program's upper limit on pump capacity.

• Those who don’t know about solar pump programs. While research on farmer awareness of solar schemes is still being conducted, a 2018 study in Uttar Pradesh showed that just two percent of farmers were aware of government programs to support solar pumps.154 KUSUM might well be advertised to the public, but, male and female literacy rates in Rajasthan hover around 80 percent and 52 percent, respectively. 155 Building awareness through demonstration pumps will thus be critical to reach a broader audience. Those who see a solar pump in action and come away with a favorable impression are twice as likely to adopt the technology, which could significantly improve take-up. 156

• Historically marginalized groups. Tribal communities, which comprise a sizeable 13.5 percent of Rajasthan’s population, struggle to access groundwater for irrigation and have historically been left out of government schemes.157 158 Targeting access for Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled

Tribes (ST), and Other Backward Castes (OBC), while implementing KUSUM might be difficult to do in a universal scheme like KUSUM rather than a demographic or income-based one. In light of this, unequal distribution of landholdings and wealth in Rajasthan mean that these marginalized groups are unlikely to benefit from KUSUM due to the points outlined above, unless GoR targets inclusion of these groups. In summary, those with lowest socioeconomic status, caste, and educational attainment are the least likely to benefit from KUSUM. Despite still being at the mercy of informal water exchanges, several changes could help address these issues for farmers without land or pumps:

• Prioritize and market to disadvantaged communities. To ensure the scheme has the most inclusive reach possible in Rajasthan, KUSUM’s rollout should prioritize the solarization of feeders serving predominantly marginalized farmers and conduct awareness-building outreach to the same. This prioritization should be done in consideration with other important factors such as financial feasibility and water conservation.

• Rethink restrictive limits on pump size. The national government could consider revising program guidelines to allow pumps smaller than 3 HP and pumps larger than 7.5 HP that are operated by groups of small farmers.

Water Access

In the short-term, solarization could provide marginalized groups with increased access to

irrigation water in areas with established informal water-trading. Greater daytime electricity increases water supply, which could enable pump owners to maintain their current usage while selling surplus water, increasing the amount available to marginal farmers to buy for irrigation. This might lower water costs and increase benefits to water buyers.

However, if solarization increases local groundwater extraction, the ensuing water scarcity

will be worst for the most marginalized. Those with larger pumps, or the ability to purchase them, may weather scarcity better because they will be able to access water even as resources dwindle. As a result of that, the market power of those farmers within informal groundwater exchanges will grow as the number of water buyers increases, meaning buyers may face the choice of paying exorbitant prices or losing access to water, and poorer farmers would see the sharpest declines in their production.159 Because groundwater access is a buffer against frequent droughts in Rajasthan, those without reliable access will be more susceptible to short-term natural climate variability (e.g. failed monsoons), as well as long-term climate change. This renders them more vulnerable to food and drinking water shortages and is linked to malnutrition and distress migration in rural Rajasthan.160 Adequate groundwater management as a part of solarization is therefore critical to avoid exacerbating inequality in agricultural communities.