Hidden Debt

Page 53

P UBLI C - P RIV A TE P A RTNERS H I P S IN SOUT H A SI A

Contingent liabilities can be explicit or implicit. Explicit contingent liabilities created by PPPs are the contractual or legal guarantees by the government contingent on the occurrence of an exogeneous event. For example, the government may commit to a minimum revenue guarantee for a toll road or for an independent power producer in the PPP contract. Implicit contingent liabilities created by PPPs are the noncontractual liabilities that the partnership and incomplete contracts create in various states of the world. For example, even though the government might not contractually promise any guarantees to the private party in the event of a default, given that the government is the ultimate guarantor of public services in most societies, the government might have to bail out the private party or assume the remaining debt and service obligations of the private party to avoid service disruption. This means that when a PPP contract is agreed upon, the government assumes the ultimate insolvency risk (Irwin 2007). The most common implicit contingent liabilities of PPPs stem from renegotiation and early termination. Renegotiations can lead to additional fiscal

burdens that could not be foreseen at the beginning of the contract. If the renegotiation process fails, the contract may be terminated as a last resort, and the government may be left to settle the claims of the creditors and the private sponsors at a rate beyond what is specified in the termination clauses. The current public sector accounting principles do not provide an adequate framework for valuating and reporting the liabilities created by PPPs. This uncertainty exacerbates the fiscal risks from PPPs (see box 1.1). Cashbased accounting practices, which are still popular in many developing countries, do not provide a way to include the liabilities in government finances. Even the financial accounting frameworks recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) limit their inclusion based on assessment of the risks and control borne by the government (Heald and Georgiou 2010; de Vries 2013). Furthermore, governments facing fiscal constraints tend to increase their levels of PPP investments as a percentage of GDP without instituting proper institutional mechanisms to deal with the liabilities they create (Reyes-Tagle and Garbacik 2016).

BOX 1.1  The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India The annual funding needs of the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) are approved by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and the Ministry of Finance through the Union Budget. This includes a contribution from the Central Road and Infrastructure Fund (CRIF) and approval for market borrowings (with implicit or explicit sovereign guarantee). However, debt service for market borrowings and the payment obligations under the hybrid annuity model are also part of the annual funding needs of NHAI. Thus, NHAI, as a national authority, raises debt and undertakes long-term liabilities (PPP hybrid annuity model payment obligations) not on the strength of its financials, but on the assurance of government of India

support through budgetary transfers. In short, the Ministry of Finance covers full debt service and payment obligations throughout the government’s public-private partnerships (PPPs), but such debt and liabilities are not explicitly stated on the government’s balance sheet—and thus become part of the “hidden debt.” This arrangement differs from other state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which are corporatized and have independent balance sheets. Source: World Bank staff, based on inputs from World Bank experts. Note: Under the hybrid annuity model, the project company is entitled to receive from the NHAI both semi-annual availability payments during the operation of the road and a capital grant during the construction phase. The project company is responsible for the construction and the maintenance of the road, but it is the authority’s responsibility to collect tolls.

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Notes

3min
page 192

Annex 4B. The Kalman Filter

3min
page 189

4.1 Recommendations for Improving Fiscal Reporting and Transparency in Pakistan

6min
pages 186-187

following Contingent Liability Shocks

3min
page 179

Debt, India

2min
page 175

Estimating Contingent Liability Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Mitigating Factors Using Data for India

6min
pages 171-172

Assembly Elections

2min
page 180

Outcomes in South Asia

5min
pages 184-185

The Promise and Risks of Fiscal Decentralization in South Asia

1min
page 159

Notes

2min
page 154

Annex 3C. Productivity Estimation

3min
page 153

Only a Combination of Internal and External Policy Reforms Can Help Better Manage Contingent Liabilities from SOEs in South Asia

9min
pages 143-145

3.8 Share of Persistently Distressed Firms in India, 1991–2017

2min
page 135

Describing the Opaque and Complex SOE Sector in South Asia Using Data

6min
pages 129-130

Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, 2005–17

12min
pages 138-141

The Importance of Paying More Attention to the Hidden Liabilities of SOEs in South Asia

11min
pages 125-128

Annex 2A. Methodology for Determining Bank Distress

6min
pages 107-108

2.1 Main Findings of the Overall Analysis

3min
page 102

Analyzing the Effect of Firms’ Banking with SOCBs Compared with Private Banks

3min
page 101

Private Banks Adjust in Times of Distress

8min
pages 98-100

Commercial Banks, 2009–18

2min
page 93

Understanding Bank Distress and Its Main Factors

3min
page 92

2.3 India: Branch Networks and Total Credit, 2018

5min
pages 87-88

The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks

4min
pages 83-84

Annex 1D. Imputing the Missing Values for Predictions

2min
page 75

Improving Government Capacity, Due Diligence, and Contract Design to Better Manage the Fiscal Risks of the Growing PPP Programs in South Asia

2min
page 70

in India, 2001–17

2min
page 57

South Asia, by Country, 1990–2018

2min
page 63

1.5 Distribution of the Percentage of Contract Period Elapsed, 1990–2018

5min
pages 58-59

Features of Contract Design That Matter: Exploring the Link between PPP Contract Design and Early Terminations of Highway PPPs in India

3min
page 68

Government from Contingent Liabilities of Public-Private Partnerships

3min
page 64

Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of GDP, 2020–24

2min
page 65

ES.1 Applying the Purpose, Incentives, Transparency, and Accountability (PITA) Recommendations in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Contexts ...................xvi 1.1 The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India

3min
page 53

O.2 Analytical Framework: Links from Distress to Adjustments to Impacts

9min
pages 32-34

The Need to Carefully Manage the Fiscal and Economic Risks of PPPs

5min
pages 49-50

Balancing the Efficiency Gains from PPPs against Their Risks and Liabilities Booming Infrastructure PPPs, Their Country and Sector Distribution, and Signs

6min
pages 51-52

Policy Recommendations

8min
pages 43-45

O.1 Implementing the High-Level Policy Recommendations for Public-Private Partnerships, State-Owned Commercial Banks, State-Owned Enterprises, and Subnational Governments

4min
page 46

O.9 Checks and Balances on Government Executives Help Prevent Distress of Public-Private Partnerships

2min
page 42

Notes

3min
page 47

Analytical Framework

2min
page 31
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