Hidden Debt

Page 83

State-Owned Banks versus Private Banks in South Asia: Agency Tensions, Susceptibility to Distress, and the Fiscal and Economic Costs of Distress

T

he pros and cons of state banking are vigorously debated. State-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) can be established to help create markets and fulfill social goals and support fiscal policy (by raising additional revenues for public investment), but the operation of SOCBs has downsides because of possible inefficiencies, misuse, and financial distress. The upsides and downsides of SOCBs are increasingly being scrutinized by policy makers and the global community. This chapter contributes to the debate by examining episodes of distress at SOCBs and private banks, the drivers of distress, bank adjustments in times of distress, and the costs of bank distress to the real economy in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Distinguishing banks by ownership type is important because state commercial banking is prevalent in these countries, and in South Asia overall. The analysis identifies episodes of bank distress, explores several adjustment channels through which banks cope with distress, and examines the relative intensity with

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which state-owned and private banks in distress use these channels. The study examines how firms’ links with SOCBs versus private banks affect their investment—focusing on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and successful firms with high growth of sales. South Asian economies rely on their banking system to help allocate resources for greater productivity and employment as well as financial inclusion for greater access to opportunities. These functions cannot be performed effectively when banks are distressed. Therefore, understanding the drivers of distress is important for devising and implementing effective policy remedies for SOCBs. The chapter therefore concludes with recommendations to strengthen SOCBs and the financial sector for the benefit of economies and societies overall.

The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks By 2017, three countries stood out in the world because of the dominance of SOCBs in

Note: This chapter draws on the background research paper: Kibuuka, K., and M. Melecky. 2020. “State-Owned versus Private Banks in South Asia: Agency Tensions, Distress Factors, and Real Costs of Distress.” Background paper for Hidden Debt. World Bank. Washington, DC.

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Notes

3min
page 192

Annex 4B. The Kalman Filter

3min
page 189

4.1 Recommendations for Improving Fiscal Reporting and Transparency in Pakistan

6min
pages 186-187

following Contingent Liability Shocks

3min
page 179

Debt, India

2min
page 175

Estimating Contingent Liability Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Mitigating Factors Using Data for India

6min
pages 171-172

Assembly Elections

2min
page 180

Outcomes in South Asia

5min
pages 184-185

The Promise and Risks of Fiscal Decentralization in South Asia

1min
page 159

Notes

2min
page 154

Annex 3C. Productivity Estimation

3min
page 153

Only a Combination of Internal and External Policy Reforms Can Help Better Manage Contingent Liabilities from SOEs in South Asia

9min
pages 143-145

3.8 Share of Persistently Distressed Firms in India, 1991–2017

2min
page 135

Describing the Opaque and Complex SOE Sector in South Asia Using Data

6min
pages 129-130

Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, 2005–17

12min
pages 138-141

The Importance of Paying More Attention to the Hidden Liabilities of SOEs in South Asia

11min
pages 125-128

Annex 2A. Methodology for Determining Bank Distress

6min
pages 107-108

2.1 Main Findings of the Overall Analysis

3min
page 102

Analyzing the Effect of Firms’ Banking with SOCBs Compared with Private Banks

3min
page 101

Private Banks Adjust in Times of Distress

8min
pages 98-100

Commercial Banks, 2009–18

2min
page 93

Understanding Bank Distress and Its Main Factors

3min
page 92

2.3 India: Branch Networks and Total Credit, 2018

5min
pages 87-88

The Upsides and Downsides of State-Owned Commercial Banks

4min
pages 83-84

Annex 1D. Imputing the Missing Values for Predictions

2min
page 75

Improving Government Capacity, Due Diligence, and Contract Design to Better Manage the Fiscal Risks of the Growing PPP Programs in South Asia

2min
page 70

in India, 2001–17

2min
page 57

South Asia, by Country, 1990–2018

2min
page 63

1.5 Distribution of the Percentage of Contract Period Elapsed, 1990–2018

5min
pages 58-59

Features of Contract Design That Matter: Exploring the Link between PPP Contract Design and Early Terminations of Highway PPPs in India

3min
page 68

Government from Contingent Liabilities of Public-Private Partnerships

3min
page 64

Portfolio in South Asia, as a Percentage of GDP, 2020–24

2min
page 65

ES.1 Applying the Purpose, Incentives, Transparency, and Accountability (PITA) Recommendations in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Contexts ...................xvi 1.1 The Hidden Debt of National Highways in India

3min
page 53

O.2 Analytical Framework: Links from Distress to Adjustments to Impacts

9min
pages 32-34

The Need to Carefully Manage the Fiscal and Economic Risks of PPPs

5min
pages 49-50

Balancing the Efficiency Gains from PPPs against Their Risks and Liabilities Booming Infrastructure PPPs, Their Country and Sector Distribution, and Signs

6min
pages 51-52

Policy Recommendations

8min
pages 43-45

O.1 Implementing the High-Level Policy Recommendations for Public-Private Partnerships, State-Owned Commercial Banks, State-Owned Enterprises, and Subnational Governments

4min
page 46

O.9 Checks and Balances on Government Executives Help Prevent Distress of Public-Private Partnerships

2min
page 42

Notes

3min
page 47

Analytical Framework

2min
page 31
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