Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region

CHAPTER 4

Tunisia: The Link between Dropping Incomes and Living Standards Federica Alfani, Dorra Dhraief, Vasco Molini, Dan Pavelesku, and Marco Ranzani

Key Messages • For about half of the Tunisian households interviewed in the five rounds of phone surveys in 2020, living standards have d eteriorated compared to the pre-COVID-19 period— particularly among the poor and the bottom 40 percent. •• For about 20 percent of households (almost 40 percent in the bottom 40 percent), living standards have continued to deteriorate throughout the pandemic. •• The pandemic’s negative impact seems to be attributable to changes in employment and labor income; and although employment has bounced back, it is not yet at precrisis levels. •• Although income has rebounded for private sector workers, it has not for the self-employed, largely because of the lack of customers. • Our results call for enhanced income support to households, particularly the bottom 40 percent, until the economy has fully rebounded.

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Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Published on Jan 20, 2022

World Bank Publications

"COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises t

Articles inside

Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Articles inside

Introduction

Transmission Channels

Conclusion

Large Poverty Setbacks

Sensitivity Analysis

Key Messages

References

Sector and More Likely to Work in Sectors Affected during the Pandemic

Impacts on Household Welfare and Poverty

How the Study Is Conducted

Suffer the Biggest Income Losses

How This Study Fits into the Literature on Economic Shocks

References

Future Scenarios

An Innovative Methodological Approach

Key Messages

References

Notes

How the Study Is Conducted

Precrisis Situation: Poverty and Labor Markets

Introduction

Notes

Key Messages

Conclusion

5.3 Most Djiboutians Are Returning to Normal Workloads

Introduction

References

Conclusion

Key Messages

Which Households Were Most Likely to Declare Lower Living Standards

during the COVID-19 Surge

Distributed in Key Transmission Channels

Phone Surveys to Quickly Check on Living Standards

References

Conclusion

Key Messages

Introduction

A Complex Link: Food Insecurity, Income Loss, and Job Loss

COVID-19 Impacts on Household Welfare

More Than Doubled

Key Messages

Impacts on Employment: Work Stoppages

Reference

2.1 Limitations of Phone Surveys

Conclusion

to Paint a COVID-19 Picture

Key Messages

Introduction

Preexisting Structural Problems

Introduction

Key Messages

Future Shocks

COVID-19-Induced Shocks

Notes

Message 2: COVID-19 Is Just One of the Severe Socioeconomic Challenges Facing the Region

References

Variations in Size and Timing of Containment Measures