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Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in MENA
FIGURE 4.10
Welfare Deterioration Is Revealed in a Snapshot Showing Which Households Were Most Likely to Declare Lower Living Standards Probability of declaring a deterioration in living standards, compared with previous month Male household head
** ** *** ***
35–44 45–64 65+ Primary education
**
Secondary education
** ***
Tertiary education
***
Not employed Private sector employee
** ***
Self-employed/employer
***
Partial salary No salary
* ***
Lower/no business income ***
2nd consumption quintile
***
3rd consumption quintile 4th consumption quintile 5th consumption quintile
*** ***
Round 4
***
Round 5
** –0.2
0
0.2 Welfare deterioration
0.4
0.6
Source: World Bank calculations, based on data from the Enquête téléphonique auprès des ménages pour étudier et suivre l’impact du COVID-19 sur le quotidien des Tunisiens, rounds 1–5 (survey conducted by National Institute of Statistics and the World Bank). Note: Figure shows estimation coefficients of the linear probability model; see annex for a description of estimation results. Statistical significance: *p < 0.10; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01.
civil servant receiving a full salary (38.5 and 19.5 percent, respectively). Similarly, respondents employed as nonwage workers with lower than usual business income, or no income at all, have a higher likelihood of experiencing lower living standards (29.5 percent), as compared with a civil servant receiving a full salary. Finally, the household welfare measured before the pandemic, as captured by the quintile on household consumption expenditures in 2015, is highly statistically significant. More affluent households have a lower likelihood of reporting a deterioration in living standards during the pandemic after controlling for age, gender, and educational level of household heads, as well as controlling for their labor market status and reported changes in labor income. These households tend to have more access to savings or credit, which, in turn, enables them to withstand economic shocks better than poorer households.
