CHAPTER 9
Lebanon: Sharply Increased Poverty for Nationals and Refugees Bilal Malaeb and Matthew Wai-Poi
Key Messages • Against the backdrop of a particularly fragile moment for a country already grappling with severe economic, financial, and political crises—exacerbated by the Port of Beirut blast in August 2020— COVID-19 and the compounded crises have had devastating effects on the Lebanese and refugee communities. •• The microsimulation results show that poverty is rising sharply for both the host communities and Syrian refugees. For the Lebanese, the increase is an estimated 13 percentage points for 2020 from the 2019 baseline, and 28 percentage points for 2021, using the international poverty line. For the refugees, the increase is an estimated 39 percentage points for 2020 and 52 percentage points for 2021. •• These changes will translate into an additional 2.3 million individuals being pushed below the international poverty line by end-2021 (of which 1.5 million are Lebanese and 780,000 are Syrian refugees). •• The drivers of changes in poverty are primarily linked to high inflation rates, with headline inflation averaging 84 percent in 2020 and reaching highs of 145 percent in certain months. • The crises are expected to leave refugees, who are already poorer than the host community, much poorer, reflecting inequalities in the transmission of the shock.
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