World Trade Report 2018: The future of world trade

What will be the consequences of the "new digital revolution" on the world economy, and in particular on international trade?

Trade has always been shaped by technology but the rapid development of digital technologies in recent times has the potential to transform international trade profoundly in the years to come. Computing, automation and data analytics are coming together in entirely new ways that deeply impact what we trade, how we trade and who is trading.

The World Trade Report 2018 examines how digital technologies – and in particular the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, 3D printing and Blockchain – affect trade costs, the nature of what is traded and the composition of trade. It provides an analysis of the changes at play and estimates the extent to which global trade may be affected over the next 15 years.

The Report discusses the opportunities arising from the development of digital technologies, in particular for developing countries and smaller firms, but also the challenges. It also examines how international trade cooperation can help governments both seize these opportunities and address the challenges.

The Report finds that one of the most significant impacts of digital technologies is the extent to which they will reduce trade costs. It also highlights that digital technologies will affect the composition of trade by increasing the services component, fostering trade in certain goods such as time-sensitive products, changing patterns of comparative advantage, and affecting the complexity and length of global value chains. A number of simulations outlined in the Report show that future technological changes are expected to increase trade growth, especially in trade in services, and that developing countries are likely to gain an increasing share of global trade. The expansion of digital trade is likely to entail considerable benefits but international cooperation is needed to help governments ensure that digital trade continues to be an engine of inclusive economic development.

The Report is available as a printed publication and a PDF.

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