Impacts of politics on the development of non core regions in Egypt

Building Bridges: Cities and Regions in a Transnational World Graz – Austria , April 2016

Impact of Politics on the Development of non-core regions in Egypt

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Yehya Serag Ain Shams University - Cairo

The research questions the current regional development attempts in Egypt and their relationship with the non-core peripheral regions.

At this critical point in the Egyptian history with the rapid change in its surrounding geo-politics and regional challenges , it is important to discuss if these attempts will be successful or will there be a necessity to consider other alternatives?

http://mapmaker.nationalgeographic.org/

Population Distribution in Egypt Alarming situation

22 Millions

93 Millions

http://mapmaker.nationalgeographic.org/

Population Distribution in Egypt: Peripheral Regions of Egypt in terms of population

North West Coast Sinai

Western Desert New Valley Red Sea Coast South East

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Earlier attempts for development- The New Map Policy - 1974 This is the 2nd component of the October working Paper. It aimed to stimulate the development of the whole of Egypt post the October War of 1973

Sadat

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Earlier development Attempts The New valley

Targeted

Targeted

population 4 Millions

population 1 Million

Development Plan of the 1960s

Development

Plans of the past focused on inducing large scale rural development in the desert .

The outcome was not as planned!

Development Plan of the 1990s

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Earlier development Attempts Sinai Peninsula

El Salam Canal constructed in North of Sinai to help in Land reclamation

Development Plans of the past

Regional Plan for Sinai 1985

Regional Plan for Sinai 1994

Targeted population

The outcome was

By 2017 3.1 Millions

not as planned!

focused on establishing growth poles that are based on tourism and port activities.

Development axes as well were considered, for example the rural development through transferring the Nile water to North Sinai

Arab Spring Revolutions: 2011 --->

The revolutions started in Tunisia then Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen reshaping the whole region and sending it in a state of unrest. This of course affected the geopolitics of the region, with a direct impact on Egypt.

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Under Threat A change in Geo-politics..

Backflow of Egyptians from Libya

Outreach of ISIS in relation to Egypt

Because of the turmoil in the Middle East, Egypt is currently facing serious challenges in dealing with its under populated regions. Most of the infiltrations happen in such regions which would require critical intervention

Confronting terrorism in Sinai

Egypt ‌.

Still a highly congested Nile Valley

Egypt ‌.

Still a highly congested Nile Valley

1938

Egypt ‌.

Still a highly congested Nile Valley Regional Development is a necessity ‌

2010s

Egypt: Urban Development for the Future (released 2014) In the inter revolution years of 2011/13 there was a stark decline in security and safety. A threat that still needs to be treated in some remote places like Sinai

Economic development

Safety and security

is a must. Because of the economic recession in post 2011 (7% in 2010 to 3% in 2014).

Critical challenges though

- Environmental protection - Internal and external security

Social Balance

Spreading the human settlements on more Egyptian land A strategy of deconcentration and development outside the core region

- Population distribution - Social justice

Economic development - Industry

- Agriculture - Tourism - Water -Energy

Egypt: Urban Development for the Future (released 2014)

2013

Sinai

Western Desert Eastern Desert

2053

Spreading the inhabited area is still the main objective for development attempts along development axes with a focus on remote regions

2113 GOPP, 2014

Egypt: Urban Development for the Future (released January 2014) Suez Canal axis - Trade -Transportation -Industry Population

North West coast Strategic peripheral -Desalination -Renewable energy

Western Desert Strategic peripheral region -Eco-tourism -Solar - Energy

Pop Jobs

Million

Sinai: Strategic peripheral -Security measures -Development based on agriculture, industry and tourism

GOPP, 2014

Egypt: Urban Development for the Future (some arguments) The development strategy sounds logic from several aspects, however, some arguments should be considered: -Although the assigned economic bases for most of the regions are rational, however, the targeted population in some of the regions, namely the peripheral regions is questionable to achieve within 40 years taking into consideration , that similar aspirations were not realized in the near past.

- Exaggeration in numbers is still the trend, for political gains as a placebo effect.

- Some of the announced investments might have a good impact on the national economy, i.e. renewable energy, yet , if not combined with spinoff projects, they will not attract the targeted population.

- Using Mega projects as a way to boost the economy and even to realize the development vision, would absorb most of the available investments from being directed to other (regions) in a constant period of time.

- Some of the later announced development projects to be implemented within the targeted peripheral areas such as the Western desert, are different from the announced strategy

Political situation in Egypt Flag ship projects of regional development

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Reflection on Sinai Rafah Sub-region 8 Million people is the target population in the next 40 years

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Reflection on Sinai Rafah Sub-region – The set up

Rafah is an under populated peripheral sub-region bordered by the densely populated Gaza strip and the colonies in the Negev Desert.

Gaza

Rafah

Egypt Sinai Negev Desert

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Reflection on Sinai Rafah Sub-region – The set up Over the last few years, the North part of Sinai starting from Rafah , its gateway, witnessed several terrorist attacks and confrontations with the army and security forces.

The terrorism/smuggling tunnels became a critical menace to the stability of the area.

Attempts were made to flood the tunnels and even to create a buffer zone by relocating many families away from the borders Yet there is still a need for development and an increase in the population weight.

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Reflection on Sinai Rafah Sub-region – Possible intervention in line with the strategy

Pivot agriculture in the Negev desert Pivot agriculture in the South west of Egypt

If it happened there , why not here?

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Reflection on Sinai Rafah Sub-region – Possible intervention in line with the strategy Surface water agriculture

Underground water agriculture pivots A sub-regional development scheme Research by Design approach

Eco-tourism

Regional planning studio students-2016 Urban Planning and Design dpt.

Ain Shams University

Peripheral Regions of Egypt: Reflection on Sinai Rafah Sub-region – However‌‌ Any regional development strategy or proposal should take into account the contextual challenges

-The indigenous population should be directly involved and respected within any development scheme. They should be the first to benefit from the development interventions to ensure their sense of ownership and contribution in the project.

-Ensure the security and stability of the sub- region parallel to the development interventions. Without safety and security development can not move forward and vise versa - Introduce incentives and create job opportunities to attract more population from the Nile Valley within the reasonable carrying capacity of the region

- Establish the proper economic bases and activities based on the available resources in the region

Discussion