5 DECEMBER 2014
NY ICE: 181.55
London Liffe: 2048
Market Report & Offer List Facebook: YouTradeCoffee admin@YouTradeCoffee.com
Arabica & Robusta Coffee Chart & Comments
Special Offers Costa Rica SHB EP 1 Supremo 17/18 Costa Rica SHB EP 2 Tarrazu 16+ Brazil Santos Peaberry Fine cup
3
China Simao Gr. 1
4
Vietman Gr.1/16
5
Vietman Gr.1/18
6 NY coffee futures faced firm resistance yesterday after selling off sharply the previous session. Prices closed around previous lows as intraday gains failed to take root. Activity early on this morning has seen further indecision with futures trading around 182 and any continuation of selling pressure could see losses extend back down towards 180.00 while protracted declines would then look to test an area of previous consolidation around 178. On the upside any gains building on near term support would first need to recover back above the 10 day MA before targeting resistance at the 40 day MA. Further moves would then potentially target resistance near 205.
Inside this issue:
Coffee Charts
1
Arabica Offers
2
Robusta Offers
3
Latam Report
4
Asia & Africa Report
5
Futures Market
6
Arabica Coffee Chart & Comments
London coffee futures traded with further indecision yesterday as resistance at both the 10 day and 40 day moving averages held firm once again. Tentative support levels towards 2050 seems to be holding up well this morning but moves on the upside remain limited which could squeeze price action into a tighter range. On the downside, any moves in breach of interim levels at 2030 could see lows towards 2000 tested. On the upside, a reversal back above the moving averages and subsequent building of momentum could see futures target a close above 2100. Volumes have dropped off in recent sessions and a breakout in the near term in either direction on higher volume will be telling of the prevailing trend.
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2
We are pleased to present for your consideration our latest coffee offer list on Full Container Load basis, for lots of about 300 bags (18 MT) per origin/ grade. Price ideas are both on outright and differential basis against NY ICE & LIFFE future markets. Price & stock availability are subject to confirmation and unsold.
Arabica Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
1800
Brazil Santos 17/18 NY 2/3 Good cup
FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio
NY ICE - 19 c/lb
-
1800
Brazil Santos 14/16 NY 3/4 Good cup
FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio
NY ICE - 29 c/lb
-
1800
Brazil Grinder screen 12 Good cup
FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio
NY ICE - 58 c/lb
-
850
Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC
FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio
NY ICE - 16 c/lb
-
1200
Colombia Excelso EP New crop
FOB - Buenaventura
NY ICE +7 c/lb
-
1100
Nicaragua SHG - EP
FOB – Atlantic or Pacific
-
USD 228/50Kg
825
Guatemala SHB - EP
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
-
USD 235/50Kg
825
Honduras HG - EP
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +2 c/lb
-
*825
Costa Rica SHB – EP “Supremo” 17/18
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +45 c/lb
USD 232/50Kg
*825
Costa Rica SHB – EP Tarrazu 16+
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +48 c/lb
USD 240/50Kg
1280
Tanzania AB FAQ 13/14
FOB - Dar Es Salaam
NY ICE +11 c/lb
-
960
Tanzania AA
FOB - Dar Es Salaam
-
USD 248/50Kg
1080
Uganda Drugar
FOB - Mombasa
NY ICE - 36 c/lb
-
320
Kenya AB
FOB - Mombasa
-
USD 288/50Kg
320
Ethiopia Sidamo Washed Gr. 2
FOB - Mombasa
-
USD 293/50Kg
Today’s best buy marked with *
In case you should need to combine several origins/grades in one shipment, we will be delighted to quote on FOT/ FOB/CIF basis and arrange mixed containers or combined palletized shipments of minimum 20 bags, from coffee stocks warehoused in the main European & US ports. Therefore do not hesitate to contact us with your enquiries or firm bids, on the products listed below and/ or any other origin or grade available on the international market. Rest assured we will do our outmost to meet your highest expectative. We wish you a pleasant and profitable day!
Arabica Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
*5000
Brazil Santos Peaberry Fine cup
FOT – Bremen
NY ICE - 21 c/lb
-
3000
Colombia Excelso European Prep
FOT – Bremen
NY ICE + 13 c/lb
-
*1920
China Simao Gr. 1
FOT – Hamburg/Bremen
NY ICE - 7 c/lb
-
*1600
China Simao small beans
FOT – Hamburg
NY ICE - 30 c/lb
-
275
Colombia Supremo 17/18
Instore - Pacorini Genoa
-
$ 228/50 Kg
400
Peru Chanchamayo wahed
Instore - Genoa/Trieste
-
$ 214/50 Kg
320
Brazil Santos NY 2 screen 17/18
Instore - Romani Genoa
-
$ 223/50 Kg
500
Colombia Supremo 17/18
Instore – Norfolk USA
NY ICE + 24 c/lb
-
1100
Nicaragua SHG - EP
Instore – Los Angeles USA
NY ICE + 22 c/lb
-
960
Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC
Instore – Toronto Canada
NY ICE - 6 c/lb
-
*1100
Honduras HG - EP
Instore – Toronto Canada
NY ICE + 7 c/lb
-
Today’s best buy marked with *
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3
We are pleased to present for your consideration our latest coffee offer list on Full Container Load basis, for lots of about 300 bags (18 MT) per origin/ grade. Price ideas are both on outright and differential basis against NY ICE & LIFFE future markets. Price & stock availability are subject to confirmation and unsold.
Robusta Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
*3200
India Cherry AB New crop
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
LIFFE +230
-
960
India Cherry A New crop
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
-
$ 2.530/MT
640
India Parchment AB
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
-
$ 3.560/MT
640
India Kaapi Royal 18
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
-
$ 3.440/MT
3200
Vietnam Gr.1/18/2%BBB
FOB - HCMC
LIFFE + 20
-
*3200
Vietnam Gr.1/16/2%BBB
FOB - HCMC
LIFFE - 5
-
*3200
Vietnam Gr.2/13/5%BBB
FOB - HCMC
LIFFE - 65
-
2500
Java Rob. Semi Washed
FOB - Surabaya
LIFFE +550
-
640
EK1 Special ELB Gr.3/400 Bean Count
FOB - Panjang
-
$ 2.380/MT
640
EK1 Special ELB Gr.2/350 Bean Count
FOB - Panjang
-
$ 2.400/MT
960
EK1/80 defects
FOB - Panjang
LIFFE +20
-
960
Uganda screen 18
FOB - Mombasa
-
$ 2.490/MT
960
Uganda screen 17
FOB - Mombasa
-
$ 2.470/MT
960
Uganda screen 15
FOB - Mombasa
-
$ 2.450/MT
320
Tanzania Bukoba Superior screen 16/17
FOB - Dar es Salaam
-
$ 2.380/MT
Today’s best buy marked with *
In case you should need to combine several origins/grades in one shipment, we will be delighted to quote on FOT/ FOB/CIF basis and arrange mixed containers or combined palletized shipments of minimum 20 bags, from coffee stocks warehoused in the main European & US ports. Therefore do not hesitate to contact us with your enquiries or firm bids, on the products listed below and/ or any other origin or grade available on the international market. Rest assured we will do our outmost to meet your highest expectative. We wish you a pleasant and profitable day!
Robusta Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
1920
Vietnam Gr.1/16 Wet Polished
Instore - Hamburg
LIFFE +300
-
320
India Parchment AB
Instore - Hamburg
LIFFE +1020
-
600
Ivory Cost Gr.2 screen 14/16
Instore - Trieste Pacorini
-
$ 2.350/MT
320
Uganda screen 18 Clean
Instore - Trieste Pacorini
-
$ 2.450/MT
3600
Cameroun Gros Grain screen 18/20
Instore - Genoa
LIFFE +360
-
320
Vietnam Gr.1 screen 16
Instore - Miami
LIFFE +280
-
320
Vietnam Gr.1 screen 18
Instore - Miami
LIFFE +300
-
360
Uganda screen 15
Instore - New Orleans
LIFFE +380
-
230
Indonesia Gr. 4 (60 defects)
Instore - New York
LIFFE +260
-
*4480
Brazil Conilon 5/6 screen 13 up
Instore - New York
LIFFE +180
-
600
Cameroun Gros Grain screen 18/20
Instore - New York
LIFFE +460
-
Today’s best buy marked with *
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4
Coffee Market Overview
“Slowly but surely
Would be nice to report good trades with additional interest but sorry, no, the situation is still unclear in Brazil as well in Vietnam ,so major buyers waiting for further news before they get back into the ring and fight for better prices.
the bullish euphoria, the doom and gloom scenarios dissipate. The ones insisting on a small carry in on a small crop now and on another small crop to come in Brazil should
Slowly but surely the bullish euphoria, the doom and gloom scenarios dissipate. The ones insisting on a small carry in on a small crop now and on another small crop to come in Brazil should buy (more) coffee. The huge amount of cheap Brazilian offers, the ongoing Colombian campaign, the pressure those put nearly all other countries differentials, offer great opportunities, don’t they?!? Carry is there, but the pipelines are full already and industry’s approach remains rather cool. One would hope that the next discussion about Arabica S&D will take place a little further out and then deal with Brazil availability for Jan/Jun 2016 and the 2016 crop which could become quite a crop.
buy (more) coffee”
Report from Brazil The rains continue in Brazil and with many positive reports coming forth to the market, in terms of the condition of the trees and likewise, the development of the new crop cherries. These reports and with very little in the way of qualified reports to counter the evidence of positive steps now being taken towards the development of the next 2015 Brazil crop, continue to dampen speculative spirits within the New York market. Local market calm. Farmers tend to postpone sales to the new (tax) year time around. Export offerings still looking attractively priced but overseas interest very small. Trade/exporters probably fairly long and industry relaxed.
Report from Colombia The Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia have reported that the countries coffee production for the month of November was 2,000 bags or 0.18% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,115,000 bags. This contributes to the countries cumulative production for the first two months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to be 45,000 bags or 2.07% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year. Meanwhile the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of November were 78,000 bags or 7.1% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 1,022,000 bags. This dip nevertheless follows a more active month of exports in October and therefore the cumulative exports for the first two months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year are still 5,000 bags or 0.25% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 1,988,000 bags.
Report from Costa Rica The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of November were 13,024 bags or 28.27% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 33,048 bags. This slow start to the new coffee year has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first two months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to being 18,953 bags or 23.51% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 61,663 bags.
MARKET
REPORT
&
OFFER
LIST
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5
Report from Vietnam The new Vietnam harvest has experienced some light rain interruptions, which has slowed the delivery of the new crop Robusta coffees to the exporters, but with good carryover stocks in hand this has not really disrupted a steady flow of Robusta coffees to the consumer markets. While approximately 40% of the new crop harvest now completed, one can expect that the flow of new crop coffees shall start to build and for the present it is very much business as usual from this leading Robusta producer. Meanwhile the traditional seasonal scare stories are coming forth from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, who talk about the new crop to potentially be up to 20% lower than the last crop. Followed by the Vietnam governments Coordinating Board forecasting a new crop of only 21.67 million bags, which is a rather dramatically modest figure. But this differs little from the official forecasts and reports in previous years that come to the market during and shortly post the harvest and for the present and thus, such market manipulative reports are not taken seriously. While albeit early in the month, the trade is talking of December exports of mostly robusta coffee from Vietnam of between 2 million and 2.5 million bags.
Report from Indonesia November exports only at 19.575 MT. that’s only two thirds of November 2013. Stocks in Lampung reported at 84.000 MT. The only independent warehouse in Lampung announced the closure of their operation soon. Asalan arrivals during this week seen at around 1.200 MT. Indonesian Rupiah trading at 12.295 vs the US Dollar, 135 points down from last week.
Report from India With the new Arabica coffee crop well into its new crop harvest in India and the new Robusta coffee crop soon to follow, the farmers are disputing the official new crop forecasts and indicate that they foresee the new Arabica coffee crop to be 20% lower than the past crop. This unofficial forecast does not however detract from many other private trade and industry forecasts who foresee that while there has been the usual problems of white stem borer for the Arabica coffee farmers, that the new crop shall potentially match the previous Arabica crop of approximately 1.6 million bags. While the general view is that the new Indian Robusta crop shall be at least 20%larger than the past crop, at approximately 4 million bags. Thus the unofficial trade forecasts presently are close to the official Coffee Board of India forecast, which has forecasted a combined new Indian crop of approximately 5.74 million bags.
Report from Uganda UCDA Monthly Report for October 2014: The first monthly report for the coffee year 2014/15 states that 229.438 bags were exported in October 2014. Coffee exports for 12 months (November 2013 to October 2014) total 3.52 million bags comprising of Robusta 2.75 million bags and Arabica 0.77 million bags. In the month of October a total of 12.9 million seedlings were planted, benefiting 64.668 households. About 75% of the total export volume was shipped by 10 exporters, out of 29 that performed in the month down from 80% in the previous month.
Report from Papua New Guinea The flow of coffee from the interior has further slowed down and the ongoing good demand from outside could not be satisfied. MARKET
REPORT
&
OFFER
LIST
Futures Market Overview The arbitrage between the markets narrowed yesterday to register this at 89.01 usc/Lb., while this equates to a relatively attractive 48.79% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative firm arabica coffee prices. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 13,610 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,322,870 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 15,025 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 18,550 bags. The commodity markets tended to take a sideways track within many markets yesterday, but with little in the way of supportive economic news coming to the markets for the present, the overall commodity index struggled to maintain its modest buoyancy for the day. The Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Silver and Platinum markets had a day of buoyancy, while the Oil, Coffee, Orange Juice, Corn, Soybean and Gold markets had a softer day’s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is that is made up from 17 markets is 0.14% higher; to see this Index registered at 472.27. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and trading at 1.564 to Sterling and 1.238 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 68.50 per barrel. The London market predictably started the day yesterday on a softer track, but followed by a steady start for the New York market. This seemed to have its influence and the London market soon recovered to join the New York market on a thinly traded steady track into the afternoon. This did not last however and as the afternoon progressed and with trade remaining relatively thin and lacklustre, the New York market started to drift lower and with the London market likewise losing some weight. The London market continued to end the day on a modestly softer note but with only 30% of the earlier losses of the day intact and followed by the New York market that registered a partial recovery late in the day to nevertheless end the day on a soft note and with 47.1% of the earlier losses of the day intact.