YTC Market Report & Offer List 13 03 2015 by TradeYourCoffee

13 MARCH 2015

NY ICE: 132.20

London Liffe: 1768

Market Report & Offer List Facebook: YouTradeCoffee admin@YouTradeCoffee.com

Arabica & Robusta Coffee Chart & Comments

Special Offers Costa Rica SHB EP Supremo 17/18

Colombia Supremo 17/18

Honduras HG - Gold Honey, Cup Rating 89.75 - Specialty Coffee

China Simao Gr. 1

Guatemala Robusta screen 15 up

Brazil Conilon 5/6 6 screen 13 up

NY coffee futures attempted to recover some of the weekâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s losses yesterday as futures found firm support towards 130. However, intraday gains towards 135 failed to take root and futures closed just above 132. Trading volumes remain stable as the market looks for direction and on the downside, further selling pressure could now retest support towards 130 while protracted declines could see futures target prices around 120. On the upside, any recovery back above the 10 day MA and then 140 could see subsequent moves above 145. Further gains will then look to target resistance towards 150 before attempts to breach resistance at the 40 day MA around 156 are made. Inside this issue:

Coffee Charts

Arabica Offers

Robusta Offers

Latam Report

Asia & Africa Report

Futures Market

London coffee futures experienced significant selling pressure yesterday, breaching near term support at 1800 as the bears remained in control throughout the entire session. Futures closed at 1786 but activity this morning has since seen futures open around yesterdayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s close and partially recover previous losses towards 1780. However, on the downside, a continuation of selling pressure in breach of support now around 1780 could see futures target levels towards 1750. On the upside, a resumption of buying activity back above 1800 could see resistance at the 10 day MA tested before further gains target levels towards 1900.

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We are pleased to present for your consideration our latest coffee offer list on Full Container Load basis, for lots of about 300 bags (18 MT) per origin/ grade. Price ideas are both on outright and differential basis against NY ICE & LIFFE future markets. Price & stock availability are subject to confirmation and unsold.

Arabica Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

1280

India Plantation A 17 up

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

NY ICE +52 c/lb

1320

Brazil 17/18 NY 2 Fine Cup

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

USD 150/50Kg

850

Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

NY ICE - 2 c/lb

*275

Colombia Supremo 17/18

FOB - Buenaventura

NY ICE +15 c/lb

*550

Colombia Excelso EP New crop

FOB - Buenaventura

NY ICE +11 c/lb

*1100

Nicaragua SHG - EP “Supremo” 17/18

FOB – Atlantic or Pacific

USD 190/50Kg

*825

Guatemala SHB - EP

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE +42 c/lb

825

Guatemala SHB - Orange Honey

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific NY ICE + 67 c/lb

*550

Guatemala SHB - EP Jazmines, Excellent Cup Rating 86 - Specialty Coffee

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

USD 284/50Kg

180

Guatemala SHB - EP Acatenango

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

USD 340/50Kg

*825

Honduras HG - EP

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE +5 c/lb

*90

Honduras HG - Gold Honey, Excellent Cup Rating 89.75 - Specialty Coffee

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

USD 454/50Kg

825

Costa Rica SHB – EP “Supremo” 17/18

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE +65 c/lb

USD 230/50Kg

1080

Uganda Drugar

FOB - Mombasa

NY ICE - 32 c/lb

320

Ethiopia Sidamo Djimmah Gr. 5

FOB - Mombasa

NY ICE - 4 c/lb

Today’s best buy marked with *

In case you should need to combine several origins/grades in one shipment, we will be delighted to quote on FOT/ FOB/CIF basis and arrange mixed containers or combined palletized shipments of minimum 20 bags, from coffee stocks warehoused in the main European & US ports. Therefore do not hesitate to contact us with your enquiries or firm bids, on the products listed below and/or any other origin or grade available on the international market. Rest assured we will do our outmost to meet your highest expectative. We wish you a pleasant and profitable day!

Arabica Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

*1080

Brazil 17/18 NY 2/3 Good Cup

FOT – Antwerp

NY ICE - 10 c/lb

1200

Brazil 14/16 NY 3/4 VGC

FOT – Bremen

NY ICE - 15 c/lb

*3570

China Simao Gr. 1

FOT – Hamburg/Bremen

NY ICE - 10 c/lb

*800

China Simao small beans

FOT – Hamburg

NY ICE - 27 c/lb

275

Colombia Supremo 17/18

Instore - Pacorini Genoa

$ 179/50 Kg

400

Peru Chanchamayo washed

Instore - Genoa/Trieste

$ 176/50 Kg

340

Peru HB MCM

Instore - New York

NY ICE + 8 c/lb

*1100

Guatemala SHB - EP

Instore – Norfolk USA

NY ICE + 20 c/lb

*1100

Colombia Excelso EP

Instore – Los Angeles USA

NY ICE + 18 c/lb

*640

Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC

Instore – Toronto Canada

NY ICE + 2 c/lb

*275

Honduras HG - EP

Instore – Toronto Canada

NY ICE + 9 c/lb

Today’s best buy marked with *

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Robusta Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

*825

Guatemala 15 up

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE - 8 c/lb

*1600

India Cherry AB New crop

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

LIFFE +220

640

India Parchment AB

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

$ 2.730/MT

640

India Kaapi Royal 18

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

$ 2.870/MT

*3200

Vietnam Gr.1/18/2%BBB

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE +120

*3200

Vietnam Gr.1/16/2%BBB

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE +100

*3200

Vietnam Gr.2/13/5%BBB

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE + 50

640

Cameroun Gr.1 screen 18/20 A

FOB - Douala

$ 1950/MT

640

EK1 Special ELB Gr.3/400 Bean Count

FOB - Panjang

$ 2.010/MT

640

EK1 Special ELB Gr.2/350 Bean Count

FOB - Panjang

$ 2.040/MT

*960

EK1/80 defects

FOB - Panjang

LIFFE +45

*1600

Brazil Conilon Type 6/7, screen 13 up

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

$ 2.150/MT

*1600

Brazil Conilon Type 7/8, screen 12 up

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

$ 2.060/MT

1600

Uganda screen 15

FOB - Mombasa

$ 2.200/MT

640

Tanzania Bukoba Superior screen 18

FOB - Dar es Salaam

$ 2.100/MT

Today’s best buy marked with *

Robusta Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

*2500

Vietnam Gr.2/13/5%BBB

Instore - Antwerp

LIFFE +145

800

Uganda screen 15

Instore - Antwerp

LIFFE - 360

900

Ivory Cost Gr.1 screen 16/18

Instore - Genoa/Trieste

$ 2.080/MT

640

Uganda screen 18 Clean

Instore - Trieste Pacorini

$ 2.180/MT

660

Cameroun Gr.1 screen 18/20 A

Instore - TMT

$ 2.020/MT

220

Uganda screen 18

Instore - Miami

NY ICE + 32 c/lb

320

Vietnam Gr.1 screen 16

Instore - New Orleans

NY ICE + 18 c/lb

*4750

Vietnam Gr.1 Water Decaf

Instore - New Orleans

NY ICE + 46 c/lb

230

Indonesia Gr. 4 (60 defects)

Instore - New York

NY ICE + 16 c/lb

*4480

Brazil Conilon 5/6 screen 13 up

Instore - New York

NY ICE + 20 c/lb

600

Cameroun Gros Grain screen 18/20

Instore - New York

NY ICE + 26 c/lb

Today’s best buy marked with *

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Market Overview “Due to a non-existing FOB business in Brazil and in Vietnam the music plays on the spot and afloat side. European roasters suffering on the Euro debility. Traders suffer on the daily climbing differentials and producers, they don’t sell very simple. African Arabicas offered a fairly attractive differentials and follows the market but at a much lower pace. Asia Robusta market on hold.”

Spot, Spot, Spot . Mix your calculation with some fresh spot coffee at cheap outright levels and extend your position. Not only Brazil also with Vietnam. If there is not enough around, why not looking at some ex-certifieds again?!? The FOB market was dominated by Honduras and party Colombia as those differentials are in line with buyers ideas. African unwashed Arabica fairly cheap but did not find the interest of the industry yet. Vietnam Robusta differentials getting into positive areas, if exporters offer at all. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks are holding against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,809 bags on Thursday 12 march, to register these stocks at 2,276,673 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 12,366 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange, to register these pending grading stocks at 36,133 bags.

Report from Brazil The National Coffee Council of Brazil has reported that they expect the new coffee crop that is getting close to maturity shall be from 4.6% to as much as 11.1% lower than the previous year’s modest crop, which they have on record at 45.34 million bags. The new crop which they estimate shall include between 30 million and 32.15 million bags of Arabica coffee and 10.3 million to 11.1 million bags of Conilon Robusta coffees shall result in a new crop of between 40.3 million to 43.25 million bags. This forecast would indicate in terms of projected export demand and domestic market demand an enormous deficit supply from the new crop of between 10.75 million and 13.7 million bags of coffee, which they are already forecasting to be followed by another deficit crop in 2016 of between 46 million and 47 million bags. However with the National Coffee Council crop assessments and forecasts being traditionally very conservative, the report is most likely not going to buoy speculative market spirits for the present. It is however in terms of the negative and soft nature of the markets at present a not unexpected report, as producers are fishing for news that shall halt the present slide in the fortunes of the coffee terminal markets. This forecast is however well below the many respected trade and industry forecasts, which still talk in terms of a much larger new crop of closer to 49 million bags, albeit that this would still in terms of the country’s exports and domestic demand, still be a deficit crop. However due to the lack of reaction within the markets, would seem to suggest that there is no belief in such low numbers that many would suggest being somewhat market manipulative in nature. One can however in terms of the prevailing soft trading range for the coffee markets, expect to see more such low forecasts coming forth from Brazil. CECAFE the Brazilian Exporters Council have meanwhile forecasted that following aggressive coffee exports for the previous year and into this year that they expect with stocks declining, that exports for 2015 shall dip by 3 million to 4 million bags, with an estimate for exports for the year of between 32.3 million to 33.3 million bags. These added to the forecasted domestic market demand of between 21 million bags would seemingly indicate a joint demand of approximately 54 million bags, which would with private trade and industry forecasts for a new crop of around 49 million bags, require stocks to cover the additional 5 million bags of demand. What is however noticeable from within this report was the fact that CECAFE have estimated that Brazil was holding stocks of approximately 15 million bags of coffee as at the beginning of April 2014, ahead of what was seen by the traditionally more reliable private trade and industry figure of a new 2014 crop of approximately 48 million bags. Therefore indicating that despite the high volumes of exports over last year and into the start of this year, that this year’s new crop shall be supplemented by approximately 6 million bags of carryover stocks which if the CECAFE export forecasts and private trade and industry new crop forecasts are correct, shall ensure sufficient coffee supply to maintain Brazil coffee supply through to the next 2016 crop. The big question is however what shall be the prospects for the 2016 crop, which still has to encounter the hurdles of the forthcoming June and July frost season and the October to March rain season, if it is to be a large new crop to contribute to longer term Brazil coffee supply and likewise to rebuild what shall by then, be minimal reserve coffee stocks. Presently the funds and the speculative sectors of the market are not showing any concern over the threat of weather related problems for the follow on 2016 Brazil crop, but any negative weather events during this year, would most certainly once again kick start the markets into a sharp upside track. However should Brazil experience normal weather conditions for the rest of the year and with seemingly little threat to weather conditions for the other main producer blocs, the markets might be due for significant negative pressure during the last quarter of the year. Meanwhile it has been a wet week for the main coffee districts in Brazil and this is assisting to build up ground water retention levels ahead of the dry winter harvest season, as it is to assist in the development of the coffee cherries towards this harvest. However following the delayed start to the spring and summer rain season in October last year and a relatively dry month of January this year, the reservoirs in south east Brazil and including the main Arabica coffee districts are mostly critically low and is a matter of considerable concern for the urban centers.

MARKET

REPORT

OFFER

LIST

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Report from Colombia Internal situation continues unchanged, coffee is simply not changing hands, all continues paralyzed. Differential ideas now are starting at 9 over, mostly for May onwards, with little business taking place. Exchange rate at 2550 pesos per USD had helped greatly, but with NYC below 140 it is no longer enough. Also trucker strike continues with shipments to and from Buenaventura blocked since 10 days now. Government reluctant to demand for lowering gasoline prices has made matters worse lately. The Coffee Growers Federation in Colombia has reported that the countries coffee production for the month of February was 155,000 bags or 17.73% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,029,000 bags. This contributes to the countries cumulative production for the first five months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to be 248,000 bags or 4.8% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, a total of 5,419,000 bags. Meanwhile the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of February were 96,000 bags or 9.84% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 1,072,000 bags. This contributes to the countries cumulative exports for the first five months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to being 250,000 bags or 5.06% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 5,186,000 bags. These very positive figures from Colombia and with the climatic conditions presently very positive for the farmers and more and more of the recently planted new trees that are related to the countries rejuvenation program coming into full yielding maturity, would indicate that both production volumes and export volumes shall continue to steadily increase. In this respect to see production and export volumes for this present coffee year to most likely get close to 13 million bags and to well exceed the 12,128,400 bags produced during the previous October 2013 to September 2014 coffee year and an export performance of 10,960,000 bags.

Report from Indonesia Lampung arrivals during last days continue to be in the 250 tons/day. First pickings seen in the low lying areas around Lampung. Normal to good weather conditions. Foreign trade houses have been the only buyers for prompt shipments (cover shorts?) Rupiah quoted at 13’124 / 1 US$, down 160 points.

Report from India The physical coffee situation has only turned from bad to worse with both terminals coming down steadily, the coffee sitting on consignment is not getting fixed as the producers and suppliers are waiting for the terminals to bounce back. Robusta flow has also reduced with markets coming down and producers are not willing to part with their coffee. The Indian Rupee closed Rs.62.48 per USD

Report from Vietnam The hope of a climbing market is the straw for the farmers. Firmer differentials are a clear indication of the reluctance to sell stocks by the farmers and shippers or the unavailability of the same. The early Switch into July might be another mistake. They have missed the boat to fix Liffe far above 2.000 US$/. Speculators are out of the market as well. The fifth edition of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Festival ends today at perfect weather conditions. Let’s hope you all return in a good mood and some more activities come up during the next days and not only short covering of trade. Currency VND 21’330 and black market 21’345 unchanged. The Buon Ma Thuot Coffee festival in Dak Lak province which accounts for approximately 32% of the coffee farming land in Vietnam, has wrapped up yesterday and with the usual agreements to further improve the quality of coffee processing over the coming five years. The festivities might not however have been as good as most would have wished, as in the meantime the mostly Robusta coffee farmers in Vietnam have had to try to absorb the negative price dictates of the softening London market, which is a matter of significant concern and is presently resulting in disbelieving price resistance within the internal market in Vietnam. The Agricultural ministry in Vietnam which has estimated that the country presently has 641,000 hectares under coffee has predicted that this shall be reduced by 6.4% over the next five years, to approximately 600,000 hectares. It has to be noted however, that such predictions have been often repeated over the past six years and so far rather than reducing land under coffee, Vietnam has seen coffee farming continue to increase and with many trade and industry players within Vietnam already forecasting a year end new crop of close to 30 million bags. Thus with the market supportive report rather long term in nature, it has no real influence upon the prevailing bearish sentiment within the coffee markets. MARKET

REPORT

OFFER

LIST

Futures Market Overview The one factor that one has to consider however in terms of the London market is that not only is coffee consumption growth mostly related to the price sensitive new markets and by nature leans heavily upon the supply of the more affordable Robusta coffees, but that over the past few years the traditional developed consumer market have looked to find ways to use higher percentages of lower priced Robusta coffees within their blends. These developments and despite the prevailing softer prices for Arabica coffees are within these competitive markets foreseen to be irreversible and thus with the combination of these markets steadily increasing Robusta coffee demand that shall be accentuated by the smaller Conilon Robusta crop in Brazil this year, one might think that supply shall remain relatively tight. Therefore one might expect that as the year progresses and despite the negative pressure of the funds that are presently forcing the market lower, it should finally assist to buoy the spirits within the relatively soft London market. The arbitrage between the markets has broadened yesterday to register this at 52.00 USc/Lb., while this equates to a now less attractive 39.33% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in Robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative firm Arabica coffee prices. Especially so, as with the presently lower trading range within the New York market, the Arabica coffee differentials relative to this market are tending to significantly firm. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,809 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,276,673 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 12,366 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 36,133 bags. The commodity markets took a mixed steady to softer track yesterday, along with the lack of appetite for commodities on the part of the funds. The Sugar, New York Arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets showed buoyancy, while the Oil, Natural Gas, Cocoa, London Robusta Coffee, Orange Juice, Corn and Soybean markets had a softer dayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.31% lower; to see this Index registered at 415.71. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar near to steady and trading at 1.486 to Sterling and 1.059 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at $ 56.80 per barrel. The London market and New York markets both started the day yesterday on a marginally softer note and continued on this track into the afternoons trade when the New York market picked up some support, to head back into positive territory. This was however short lived and the New York market once again slipped back to join the London market that remained on a steady downside track, but with the New York market once again posting a recovery late in the afternoon. The London market continued to end the day on a very soft note and with 81.2% of the losses of the day intact, while the New York market continued to end the day with modest buoyancy and with 15.5% of the earlier gains of the day intact. One might think that the steadier nature of the New York market might have some influence for a degree of buoyancy for the London market and perhaps a near to steady start for the New York market for early thin trade today on Friday 13 March.