YTC Market Report & Offer List 07.07.2015 by TradeYourCoffee

07 JULY 2015

NY ICE: 125

London Liffe: 1711

Market Report & Offer List Facebook: YouTradeCoffee admin@YouTradeCoffee.com

Arabica & Robusta Coffee Chart & Comments

Special Offers Guatemala SHB - 1 EP Guatemala Espresso Blend

Colombia Supremo 3 17/18 ESP China Baoshan Gr.1

Uganda Black Beans

Brazil Conilon 5/6 6 screen 13 up

NY coffee futures breached what had been firm support at the previous low of 126.60 on Monday as contracts sold off towards 125. The move was hardly accompanied by a surge in trading volumes suggesting this could well be a temporary dip lower as investors find a floor. Activity this morning has seen futures open around 125.50 before attempting to recover back above 126.30, however, buying appetite remains sluggish early on. Momentum indicators are struggling to provide investors with direction but seem to be hinting at further downward pressure and further declines could now test 120; however, we are confident that buying appetite will remain relatively robust around current levels with 125 now projected as a stable support level. On the upside, buying on improved volumes back above 126.30 and in breach of the moving averages could target 140 provided futures can post successive gains in excess of the weekâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trading range. On any breach of this we could then see trend resistance towards 142 tested while further upside could target previous highs around 146-149.

Inside this issue:

Coffee Charts and Comments

Arabica Offers

Robusta Offers

South & Centam 4 Report Asian Report

Futures Market

5 6

London coffee futures slipped lower on Monday after tentatively holding onto support at the 40 day moving average. Intermediate levels at the 40 day MA and the 23.6% fib level were breached before support at the Fibonacci fan lines stemmed any further losses. Sentiment seems to be turning lower as contracts continue to consolidate the gains made last month, retracing almost 50% of the recent upswing. Activity this morning has seen coffee contracts open below the 23.6% fib level trade tentatively lower while still holding onto fan line support. Momentum indicators hint at the possibility of futures posting further losses but we would look for confirmation in the coming sessions from higher trading volumes. On the downside, any breach of support now at 1700 could see support at the gap towards 1665 targeted On the upside, any recovery back above the 40 day MA and subsequently the 10 day MA could see futures building on near term support, eventually targeting resistance towards 1800. On any breach of this we could then see future rally towards longer term targets around 1845.

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We are pleased to present for your consideration our latest coffee offer list on Full Container Load basis, for lots of about 300 bags (18 MT) per origin/ grade. Price ideas are both on outright and differential basis against NY ICE & LIFFE future markets. Price & stock availability are subject to confirmation and unsold.

Arabica Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

1280

India Plantation A 17 up

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

NY ICE +72 c/lb

1320

Brazil 17/18 NY 2 Fine Cup

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

USD 142/50Kg

640

Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC New Crop

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

NY ICE - 13 c/lb

*600

Colombia Supremo 17/18 ESP New Crop

FOB - Buenaventura

NY ICE +15 c/lb

*550

Colombia Excelso ESP New crop

FOB - Buenaventura

NY ICE +11 c/lb

*1100

Nicaragua SHG - EP “Supremo” 16+

FOB – Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE +25 c/lb

USD 177/50Kg

*825

Guatemala SHB - EP

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE +52 c/lb

825

Guatemala HB - EP

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE + 23 c/lb

*825

Guatemala “Cereza” Espresso Blend 16+

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

NY ICE level

USD 140/50Kg

275

Honduras SHG - EP

FOB - Atlantic or Pacific

USD 160/50Kg

*1650

China Baoshan Gr.1

FOB - Guangzhou

NY ICE - 10 c/lb

*1650

China Simao Gr.1

FOB - Guangzhou

NY ICE - 8 c/lb

*2750

China Baoshan Gr.3

FOB - Guangzhou

USD 1900/MT

1080

Uganda Drugar Naturals

FOB - Mombasa

NY ICE - 34 c/lb

320

Ethiopia Djimmah Gr. 5

FOB—Djibouti

NY ICE - 15 c/lb

Today’s best buy marked with *

In case you should need to combine several origins/grades in one shipment, we will be delighted to quote on FOT/ FOB/CIF basis and arrange mixed containers or combined palletized shipments of minimum 20 bags, from coffee stocks warehoused in the main European & US ports. Therefore do not hesitate to contact us with your enquiries or firm bids, on the products listed below and/or any other origin or grade available on the international market. Rest assured we will do our outmost to meet your highest expectative. We wish you a pleasant and profitable day!

Arabica Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

3000

Brazil Grinders 12+ 5/6 GC Crop 14/15

FOT – Antwerp/Hamburg

NY ICE - 37 c/lb

1600

Brazil Sanmtos 3/4 MTGB FC CC

FOT – Hamburg

NY ICE - 14 c/lb

*3850

China Baoshan Gr.1

FOT – Bremen

NY ICE - 3 c/lb

1280

Ethiopia Gura Ferda Gr.2

FOT – Hamburg

NY ICE + 48 c/lb

540

India Monsoon Malabar AA

FOT – Hamburg

NY ICE + 53 c/lb

1650

Kenya Washed Arabica AB crop 14/15

Instore - Hamburg

NY ICE + 63 c/lb

275

Colombia Supremo 18 EP

Instore - Genoa

USD 172/50Kg

275

Washed Peru

Instore – Genoa/Trieste

USD 169/50Kg

275

Colombia Excelso EP

Instore – Oakland

NY ICE + 21 c/lb

320

Brazil 15/16 NY 2/3 Semiwashed

Instore – Seattle

NY ICE + 2 c/lb

550

Honduras SHG - EP

Instore – New York

NY ICE + 19 c/lb

Today’s best buy marked with *

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Robusta Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

1200

India Cherry Bulk Current Crop

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

LIFFE +235

*1200

India Cherry AB Current Crop

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

LIFFE +250

1500

India Parchment AB

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

LIFFE +580

320

India Kaapi Royale 17

FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin

$ 2.700/MT

1800

Vietnam Wet Polished Gr.1/16

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE +270

3200

Vietnam Gr.1/18/2%BBB

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE +140

3200

Vietnam Gr.1/16/2%BBB

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE +90

3200

Vietnam Gr.2/13/5%BBB

FOB - HCMC

LIFFE + 40

320

EK1 Special ELB Gr.3/400 Bean Count

FOB - Panjang

$ 2.050/MT

3200

Indonesia Wet Pulped

FOB - Panjang

LIFFE +530

960

Indonesia EK1/80 defects

FOB - Panjang

LIFFE +70

1600

Brazil Conilon Type 6, screen 13 up

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

$ 2.200/MT

1600

Brazil Conilon Type 7, screen 12 up

FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio

$ 2.150/MT

1500

Guinea FAQ

FOB - Conakri

LIFFE +60

640

Uganda screen 15 Standard

FOB - Mombasa

$ 2.230/MT

Today’s best buy marked with *

Robusta Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags

Grade

Delivery

Differential

Outright

*3200

India Cherry AB Crop 14/15

CFR – Hamburg

LIFFE +380 USD

*3200

Indonesia EK1/80 defects

CFR – Hamburg

LIFFE +205 USD

*5000

Indonesia Gr. 4 (60 defects)

Instore - Barcelona

LIFFE +180 USD

*4000

Vietnam Gr.1/16 Clean

FOT – Hamburg

LIFFE +350 USD

*3200

Uganda screen 12

Instore - Trieste/Genoa/Napoli

LIFFE +250 USD

*640

Uganda screen 18 Impala

Instore - Genoa/

LIFFE +490 USD

*3200

Uganda Black Beans

Instore - Barcelona

LIFFE –105 USD

666

Togo Gr. 2 screen 14/16

Instore - Le Havre

LIFFE +180 USD

*4200

Cameroun Grade 2

Instore—Genoa/Hamburg/Antwerp LIFFE +200 USD

*4400

Cameroun Grade 1

Instore—Genoa/Hamburg/Antwerp LIFFE +250 USD

2950

Cameroun Gros Grain scr. 18/20

Instore - Le Havre/Hamburg

Today’s best buy marked with *

LIFFE +330 USD

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Market Overview â&#x20AC;&#x153;Meanwhile there are no weather scares for any of the main coffee producer blocs and so far the mild El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean has had no negative effect upon medium to longer term coffee production, with the prospects for rising coffee supply from Central America, Colombia, Vietnam and India on the cards for the last quarter of this year and first quarter of next year. â&#x20AC;&#x153;

The comments coming out of the Vietnam trade are indicating expectations of exports for the month that might be between 1.34 million bags and 2.17 bags, with the broad range of forecasts being related to the unforeseen fortunes of the reference prices of the London Robusta coffee market. Traders noting that unless the market recovers and with the prevailing internal market price resistance still in play that the lower number is more likely, but that any reasonable recovery for London market would very quickly bring more coffees to the market and increased volumes of exports. Meanwhile there are no weather scares for any of the main coffee producer blocs and so far the mild El Nino phenomenon within the Pacific Ocean has had no negative effect upon medium to longer term coffee production, with the prospects for rising coffee supply from Central America, Colombia, Vietnam and India on the cards for the last quarter of this year and first quarter of next year. Followed so long as the new spring and summer rain season is up to standard in Brazil, by the prospects for a much larger new Brazil crop for the second quarter and third quarter of next year. This all contributes towards a complacency on the part of the consumer market industries, who are presently taking advantage of the good overall world coffee stocks, to maintain steady supply. Albeit that from some producers and highlighted by the continued internal market price resistance within Vietnam, there is a short term tightness of comparatively affordable supply. While for the short term and following high volumes of exports over the past nine months, Honduras is seemingly sold out for the next five months or so.

Report from Brazil The preliminary export figures for the month of June from Brazil have been announced and with coffee exports for the month reported to have been 235,905 bags or 9% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 2.386,264 bags. This modest dip not really seen to be that significant as it most probably reflects some degree of consumer market price resistance to the relatively higher differentials that have prevailed over the recent months, which came with the internal market Arabica coffee farmerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s price resistance to the dictates of the falling value of the reference prices of the New York market. One might comment that with the general perspective within the consumer markets and within most of the private trade in Brazil that the new crop that is now heading towards the peak harvest period for the Arabica coffees later this month that the overall new crop shall be in excess of 51 million bags, the consumer market buyers are holding back for more aggressive selling and potentially softer export differentials to increase their volumes of Brazil Arabica coffee purchases. Meanwhile the majority of buyers within the main northern hemisphere consumer markets are tending to rather concentrate upon the summer holidays, while they await the potential for more aggressive selling of producer stocks post the holiday season. There is a cold front entering south east Brazil and bringing colder and wet weather to the main Arabica coffee districts that are presently in full harvest, which shall interrupt the harvest activity for a couple of days. However there has been no comment from Brazil that this cold front shall be cold enough to be frost threatening and albeit that it is not an impossible factor and coming in at the traditionally more likely full moon period, there has been no speculative reaction to this news within the coffee markets.

Report from Costa Rica The National Coffee Institute of Costa Rica have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of June were 325 bags or 0.2% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 163,634 bags. This number contributes to the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to being 85,691 bags or 8.21% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 957,761 bags. One might comment that perhaps the marginally lower number for the coffee year so far is not necessarily related to problems for the last harvest, but more to the internal market price resistance that has prevailed within Costa Rica so far during most of this coffee year and has inflated export differentials for their coffees, which has turned some traditional consumer market buyers towards more affordable alternatives from Colombia, Honduras and Peru. MARKET

REPORT

OFFER

LIST

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Report from Colombia The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation has reported that the country’s coffee production for the month of June was 296,000 bags or 31.36% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 1,240,000 bags. This higher performance follows many months of rising production levels and the cumulative production for the first nine months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year is now 723,000 bags or 8.19% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 9,548,000 bags. It is similarly the case in terms of Colombian fine washed arabica coffee exports and the Coffee Growers Federation has reported that coffee exports for the month of June were 236,000 bags or 31% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 997,000 bags. This improved performance has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first nine months of the present coffee year to be 605,000 bags or 7.3% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 8,888,000 bags. All indications are now that with the mid-year Mitaca crop harvest in full progress that Colombia is on track for the present coffee year towards production of close to 13 million bags, which is a long way up from the dip during the La Nina phenomenon to production below 8 million bags. Likewise with Colombia having been a relatively ready and steady competitive seller of their fine coffees and in competition that exports for this present coffee year might get close to 12 million bags.

Report from Mexico Mexico’s Agricultural Secretariat has addressed their struggling coffee industry that they say has declined by 40% in volume of production over the last fifteen years, to crops levels which now total only approximately 3.6 million bags per annum. In this respect the government that had already allocated the equivalent of 44.6 million U.S. dollars towards programs to stimulate the industry this year, has increased this grant by the equivalent of a further 82.7 million U.S. dollars. This funding they say shall assist farmers to replant approximately 75,000 hectares of aged and relatively low yielding coffee trees, with new disease resistant and higher yielding trees, with the target to renew at least 250,000 hectares over the next three years. This is a similar program to what has been successful in both Colombia and Honduras over the past ten years and is one that has potential merit for the Mexican coffee farmers and the prospects for a recovery in the countries future coffee production, albeit that it shall take at least four years before the results shall start to come into effect. The question is however with the prevailing relatively dismal prices that the international coffee markets dictate for the fine washed Arabica coffees that Mexico is famed for, how inspired many farmers might be to reinvest into the planting of new coffee trees, even with the assistance of the state to finance the replanting of their farms. Many farmers have already looked to alternative and more secure crops to farm and the present circumstances, do little to inspire confidence.

Report from Indonesia Mixed Asalan arrivals to Lampung strong on Monday of over 5000 MT and the balance abt. 2000 MT per day. Differentials have eased as well and good business activities in all directions noted. Prices continue below Vietnam replacement making Indonesia Robusta an interesting alternative for blend flexible roasters. The weather over the coffee belt is mostly sunny with some afternoon showers. Exchange rate: 13’331 IDR /1USD, 30 points firmer than last week.

Report from Vietnam Farmers smile is back in their faces as ongoing rain arrived in the coffee regions and the water reservoirs starting to fill up again. More rainfall needed for sure, but the first worries are eliminated. Industry as well as trade are on hold now after some good volume has been traded (partly short covering) beginning of the week, as exporters reporting stocks in Vietnam about 400.000 tons of this crop for just 4 month to go. They expect differentials to go further south. Currency: Bank VND 21’770 and black market VND 21’820 no change . Of interest: The World Bank Board of Directors has approved $315 million in credits to go toward agriculture and education development in rural communities in Vietnam, with a substantial but unspecified portion of the loan focused on rejuvenation and development of sustainable coffee production.

MARKET

REPORT

OFFER

LIST

Futures Market Overview The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York Arabica coffee market has seen the shorter term in nature Managed Money fund sector of this market decrease their net short sold position within the market by 24.51% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 30th June, to register a net short sold position of 10,207 Lots on the day. Meanwhile the longer term in nature Index Fund sector of this market increased their net long position within the market by 0.13%, to register a net long position of 27,582 Lots on the day. Meanwhile the Non Commercial Speculative sector of this market decreased their net short sold position within the market by 12.05% over the same week, to register a net short sold position of 14,540 Lots. This net short sold position which is the equivalent of 4,122,026 bags has most likely been increased again, over the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed and likewise, that of the Managed Money fund sector of the market. The arbitrage between the markets has narrowed yesterday to register this at 47.09 USc/Lb, while this equates to a 37.76% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market. This arbitrage remaining relatively to roasters in comparison to Arabica coffee prices, but is perhaps due to widen further in time and when Vietnam stocks start to impact upon the fortunes of the London market. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 5,883 bags yesterday; to register these stocks at 2,151,800 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 7,606 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 19,409 bags. The commodity markets remained under pressure yesterday, with the crisis in Greece and the firming of the U.S. dollar being joined by the dramatic sell off of the Chinese stock markets, to dampen speculative spirits. This situation contributed to the soft nature of the overall macro commodity index during yesterdayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade, which further impacted upon sentiment for the day. The Orange Juice market nevertheless had a day of buoyancy and the Brent Oil and London Robusta Coffee markets were steady, while the U.S. Oil, Natural Gas, Sugar, Cocoa, New York Arabica Coffee, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Gold, Silver and Platinum markets had a softer dayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 1.25% lower: to see this Index registered at 422.03. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar steady and selling at 1.543 to Sterling and 1.101 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is steady in early trade and is selling at 55.65 per barrel. The London market started the day on a near to steady note yesterday and marginally below par, while the New York market opened the day with some early buoyancy. The markets continued on this track into the afternoon trade, with the New York market retaining its buoyancy in thin trade, while the London market moved up to trade marginally above par. As the afternoon progressed and the Americans entered the field of play, the New York market came under some pressure and moved back into negative territory and took a dip down to trigger new one and half year lows, while the London market maintained a sideways track close to par. The New York market did however recover from the lows and the London market maintained some degree of buoyancy, through the rest of the dayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade. The London market continued to end the day on a steady note, while the New York market ended the day on a modestly softer note and having recovered 70% of the earlier losses of the day by the close. The markets are technically negative for the present and with prospects for further producer selling due for both market.