20 FEBRUARY 2015
NY ICE: 149.20
London Liffe: 1957
Market Report & Offer List Facebook: YouTradeCoffee admin@YouTradeCoffee.com
Arabica & Robusta Coffee Chart & Comments
Special Offers Costa Rica SHB EP Supremo 17/18
1
Colombia Supremo 17/18
2
Guatemala Robusta screen 15 up
3
China Simao Gr. 1
4
Vietnam Gr.1 Water 5 Decaf
Brazil Conilon 5/6 6 screen 13 up
NY coffee prices extended declines for a fourth consecutive session yesterday to end the day at 152.65. This morning, coffee prices remained under pressure trading around 153.00. Short -term indicators suggest the potential for declines to falter near 150.00, which acts as immediate support. On the upside, a resumption of gains could retest the 10-day MA of 162.09 and the 40-day MA of 168.65. Resistance holds near January’s high at 187.40 and the key area of 200.00. Inside this issue:
Coffee Charts
1
Arabica Offers
2
Robusta Offers
3
Latam Report
4
Asia & Africa Report
5
Futures Market
6
London coffee prices extended declines and fell sharply yesterday to end the trading session at 1990. This morning, prices remained under pressure trading below the 10-day MA struggling for direction. Short-term indicators suggest the potential for recent declines to falter near the 40-day MA of 1962. On the upside, a correction higher could see gains retest February’s high of 2077 and the key level of 2100, while resistance holds near November’s high of 2112.
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We are pleased to present for your consideration our latest coffee offer list on Full Container Load basis, for lots of about 300 bags (18 MT) per origin/ grade. Price ideas are both on outright and differential basis against NY ICE & LIFFE future markets. Price & stock availability are subject to confirmation and unsold.
Arabica Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
1280
India Plantation A 17 up
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
NY ICE +38 c/lb
-
1320
Brazil 17/18 NY 2 Fine Cup
FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio
-
USD 168/50Kg
850
Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC
FOB – Santos/Vitoria/Rio
NY ICE - 7 c/lb
-
275
Colombia Supremo 17/18
FOB - Buenaventura
NY ICE +14 c/lb
-
550
Colombia Excelso EP New crop
FOB - Buenaventura
NY ICE +10 c/lb
-
1100
Nicaragua SHG - EP “Supremo” 17/18
FOB – Atlantic or Pacific
-
USD 215/50Kg
*825
Guatemala SHB - EP
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +37 c/lb
-
825
Guatemala SHB - Orange Honey
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE - 55 c/lb
-
*825
Guatemala stock lot
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE - 27 c/lb
-
825
Honduras HG - EP
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +4 c/lb
-
825
Costa Rica SHB – EP “Supremo” 17/18
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +65 c/lb
USD 225/50Kg
825
Costa Rica SHB – EP Tarrazu 16+
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE +70 c/lb
USD 230/50Kg
1080
Uganda Drugar
FOB - Mombasa
NY ICE - 35 c/lb
-
320
Kenya AB
FOB - Mombasa
NY ICE +74 c/lb
-
640
Ethiopia Sidamo Washed Gr. 2
FOB - Mombasa
-
USc 247/Lb
Today’s best buy marked with *
In case you should need to combine several origins/grades in one shipment, we will be delighted to quote on FOT/ FOB/CIF basis and arrange mixed containers or combined palletized shipments of minimum 20 bags, from coffee stocks warehoused in the main European & US ports. Therefore do not hesitate to contact us with your enquiries or firm bids, on the products listed below and/ or any other origin or grade available on the international market. Rest assured we will do our outmost to meet your highest expectative. We wish you a pleasant and profitable day!
Arabica Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
*640
Brazil 17/18 NY 2/3 Fine Cup
FOT – Hamburg
NY ICE - 1 c/lb
-
3000
Brazil 14/16 NY 3/4 VGC
FOT – Antwerp
NY ICE - 18 c/lb
-
*1650
China Simao Gr. 1
FOT – Hamburg/Bremen
NY ICE - 8 c/lb
-
*1600
China Simao small beans
FOT – Hamburg
NY ICE - 30 c/lb
-
275
Colombia Supremo 17/18
Instore - Pacorini Genoa
-
$ 205/50 Kg
400
Peru Chanchamayo washed
Instore - Genoa/Trieste
-
$ 204/50 Kg
340
Peru HB MCM
Instore - New York
NY ICE + 6 c/lb
-
*1100
Guatemala SHB - EP
Instore – Norfolk USA
NY ICE + 18 c/lb
-
*1100
Colombia Excelso EP
Instore – Los Angeles USA
NY ICE + 16 c/lb
-
*640
Brazil NY 2/3 MTGB SSFC
Instore – Toronto Canada
NY ICE level
-
*275
Honduras HG - EP
Instore – Toronto Canada
NY ICE + 7 c/lb
-
Today’s best buy marked with *
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3
We are pleased to present for your consideration our latest coffee offer list on Full Container Load basis, for lots of about 300 bags (18 MT) per origin/ grade. Price ideas are both on outright and differential basis against NY ICE & LIFFE future markets. Price & stock availability are subject to confirmation and unsold.
Robusta Coffee Shipments from Origin Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
¨825
Guatemala 15 up
FOB - Atlantic or Pacific
NY ICE - 18 c/lb
-
*1600
India Cherry AB New crop
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
LIFFE +180
-
640
India Parchment AB
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
-
$ 3.200/MT
640
India Kaapi Royal 18
FOB - Cochin/Tuticorin
-
$ 3.300/MT
3200
Vietnam Gr.1/18/2%BBB
FOB - HCMC
-
-
*3200
Vietnam Gr.1/16/2%BBB
FOB - HCMC
LIFFE +35
-
*3200
Vietnam Gr.2/13/5%BBB
FOB - HCMC
LIFFE - 20
-
2500
Java Rob. Semi Washed
FOB - Surabaya
LIFFE +595
-
640
EK1 Special ELB Gr.3/400 Bean Count
FOB - Panjang
-
$ 2.310/MT
640
EK1 Special ELB Gr.2/350 Bean Count
FOB - Panjang
-
$ 2.330/MT
*960
EK1/80 defects
FOB - Panjang
LIFFE +40
-
*1200
Cameroun Gr. 1
FOB - Douala
LIFFE +125
-
*1200
Cameroun Gr. 2
FOB - Douala
LIFFE +55
-
960
Uganda screen 15
FOB - Mombasa
-
$ 2.450/MT
320
Tanzania Bukoba Superior screen 16/17
FOB - Dar es Salaam
-
$ 2.395/MT
Today’s best buy marked with *
In case you should need to combine several origins/grades in one shipment, we will be delighted to quote on FOT/ FOB/CIF basis and arrange mixed containers or combined palletized shipments of minimum 20 bags, from coffee stocks warehoused in the main European & US ports. Therefore do not hesitate to contact us with your enquiries or firm bids, on the products listed below and/ or any other origin or grade available on the international market. Rest assured we will do our outmost to meet your highest expectative. We wish you a pleasant and profitable day!
Robusta Coffee SPOT - EU & North America Bags
Grade
Delivery
Differential
Outright
*2500
Vietnam Gr.2/13/5%BBB
Instore - Antwerp
LIFFE +110
-
1500
Uganda BHP 11.99
Instore - Hamburg
LIFFE - 90
-
900
Ivory Cost Gr.1 screen 16/18
Instore - Genoa/Trieste
-
$ 2.350/MT
320
Uganda screen 18 Clean
Instore - Trieste Pacorini
-
$ 2.500/MT
220
Cameroun Gr.1 screen 18/20 A
Instore - TMT
-
$ 2.550/MT
220
Uganda screen 18
Instore - Miami
NY ICE + 30 c/lb
-
320
Vietnam Gr.1 screen 16
Instore - New Orleans
NY ICE + 16 c/lb
-
*4750
Vietnam Gr.1 Water Decaf
Instore - New Orleans
NY ICE + 44 c/lb
-
230
Indonesia Gr. 4 (60 defects)
Instore - New York
NY ICE + 14 c/lb
-
*4480
Brazil Conilon 5/6 screen 13 up
Instore - New York
NY ICE + 18 c/lb
-
600
Cameroun Gros Grain screen 18/20
Instore - New York
NY ICE + 24 c/lb
-
Today’s best buy marked with *
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Coffee Market Overview “Stale longs liquidate in NY: Sounds like a good explanation for the drop or rather the acceleration of it. Having been bought perhaps about a year ago at 120/130/140 or even higher, carried through a couple of switches and now looking a bit silly. So human. Nice!”
Stale longs liquidate in NY: Sounds like a good explanation for the drop or rather the acceleration of it. Having been bought perhaps about a year ago at 120/130/140 or even higher, carried through a couple of switches and now looking a bit silly. So human. Nice! The physical market: New Year festivities in Asia, “Carnival” in Brazil pared with rather hefty moves in NY were strong contributing factors. Colombia interest for longer spreads imminent, yet asking prices firmed somewhat and biz very limited. In CAM Honduras continues active, diffs attractive in view of low ICE levels. Some short covering demand for Guatemala/Costa Rica meeting very steady asking ideas. East-African Arabica traded in small volume, focus remained on better qualities. Spot business fairly active. Brazils, when being offered well below replacement find more and more listeners. Robusta spots continued to be sought after but less and less of the right (read: cheap) coffee available.
Report from Brazil Rather paralyzed by carnival mood and high internal replacement levels. Regular and fairly widespread rainfall was reported. With Brazilian carnival over, which has been a relatively wet one for the south east of Brazil, the rains have been beneficial for the prospects for the developing new crop, but shall not change the scenario that this new crop shall be another relatively modest. Fortunately a situation that shall be adequately covered by the prospects for carryover stocks of a similar number, which shall assist Brazil to maintain a steady supply to the consumer markets through to next year’s new crop. The prominent coffee trade house ED&F Man and Volcafe coffee trade house forecasted that the new 2015 crop shall come in at 49.5 million bags and therefore 1 to 2 million bags higher than many other earlier forecasts and that despite this still relatively modest number, it shall contribute along with a 3.2 million bags larger end of this year new Vietnam crop of 30.6 million bags, to global coffee supply of 151.1 million bags for the next October 2015 to September 2016 coffee year. The report does however indicate that global coffee demand for the next coffee year shall be 152.5 million bags and that despite this improved supply, that the next coffee year shall nevertheless experience a 1.4 million bags deficit supply. Thus why the longer term coffee supply forecast might be seen to be neutral and perhaps even mildly supportive for the coffee markets, the shorter term assessment of the pending new crop in Brazil shall be much larger than many other forecasts have indicated, tended to be bearish for late in the day sentiment yesterday.
Report from Colombia Coffee flow has come to a complete standstill as the little coffee available in between crops is not coming to market at present levels, not even the soaring dollar now at 2450 pesos has been enough counter for the lower NYC. Diffs are correspondingly firming up to levels of + 8 for Excleso and offers are rather scarce. Interest remains widespread at low single digits but finding no take. There is an important rising coffee supply from Colombia where in an interview yesterday, the National Coffee Federation of Colombia have forecasted that following the October 2013 to September 2014 coffee crop of 12,128,400 bags, the forecast that the coffee production for the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year will possibly exceed 13 million bags. This ongoing with positive output from Colombia is expected to be followed by a much improved new crop from Peru which starts being harvested in April, which many foresee shall increase by approximately 500,000 bags to total 3.9 million bags. The prospects of rising Central and South America coffee supply for the present coffee year has not however resulted in any degree of selling aggression from Central America and Colombia and rather with relatively strong internal market price resistance being shown to the negative dictates of the softening of the reference prices of the New York market, it is forcing exporters to have to continue to demand relatively positive and presently increasing asking differentials for new business. These differentials well above the value of tendering and delivering surplus coffees to the New York market and likewise values that do not inspire consumer market traders to carry high differential trade stocks, which sees the certified coffee stocks of the New York market remaining modest and little potential for short term growth of fine washed arabica coffee stocks within the consumer markets.
MARKET
REPORT
&
OFFER
LIST
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Report from Nicaragua The National Export Centre in Nicaragua have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of January were 774 bags or 0.86% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 90,324 bags. This export performance has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first four months of the present October 2014 to September 2015 coffee year to be 79,423 bags or 42% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 268,534 bags. This latest report and with the new crop harvest close to completion was accompanied by a positive new crop forecast, which the National Export Centre foresees to be a 7% larger new crop, which they expect to total 1.61 million bags. This number is however somewhat conservative, as there are qualified trade and industry forecasts who have indicated a new crop for Nicaragua to be closer to 1.8 million bags. Specifics aside however, there is no doubt that the combined new crops from the producer bloc of Mexico and Central America shall this year be approximately 1 million bags larger than the previous crop, with much of these new crops still to be sold and to a degree, these potential sales are dampening speculative spirits for the related New York market against which they shall trigger price fixation hedge selling.
Report from Guatemala Estimates for the current crop are now around 2 million 69 kg bags, compared with about 2.7 million bags in 13/14. Availability of coffee is very limited, asking prices far above international levels. Activity have noted only in the premium section at differentials of about + 55 to + 65 and more. Exports from October 1, 2014 to February 08, 2015 for the 2014/2015 harvest are at 466,808 60-kilo bags, 21% lower than in the crop 2013/2014.
Report from Ethiopia Exporters struggling to deliver coffees in time but with their needs they keep the EXC auction prices high. Agrabis not showing any intentions to sell as they are losing too much money. 2nd Hand market nearly sold out so differential going up for spot sundried coffees in Europe. Talk of the town: Ethiopia and Djibouti have agreed to establish a joint committee to enhance the port and customs services in order to speed up transportation of commodities to Ethiopia. That may help a lot!
Report from India With NY falling drastically, the replacement cost for washed Arabica Plantation A is pushed from +35 to +40 FOB. The big producers are still holding expecting the market to bounce back and higher prices. Washed Robusta flow has picked up but still trading at a price equivalent to +850 FOB for Rob Parchment AB. Robusta Cherry flow has also increased but there again the trading differential is strong at +190/+200 FOB for Rob Cherry AB, whereas buying idea from European market for Rob Cherry AB is at +150 FOB. Indian Rupee is trading at Rs.62.30 per USD today.
Report from Vietnam TET = Happy New year?!? So the country is closed. Good spot business reported from and to trade as well as to the industry. Interest remains unchanged from industry for 2nd half 15 for all grades. Exports in January 132.000tons down 5.6% to Jan 14. What’s really left in Vietnam for the rest of the year? How much carry over did we have? February will be a slow month in terms of exports due to the festivities. Differential unchanged Firm for Grade 2 5% minus 30 FOB. MARKET
REPORT
&
OFFER
LIST
Futures Market Overview The arbitrage between the markets has narrowed yesterday to register this at US cents 62.39/Lb., while this equates to a relatively attractive 40.87% price discount for the London robusta coffee market. This arbitrage is continuing to inspire consumer market roaster interest in robusta coffees, which assist to take some of the bite out of the comparative firm arabica coffee prices. The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 730 bags yesterday, to register these stocks at 2,248,707 bags. There was meanwhile a larger in volume 1,835 bags increase to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 61,126 bags. The commodity markets were mixed yesterday, to see the overall macro commodity index taking a sideways track for the day. The Natural Gas, Cotton, Copper, Wheat, Soybean, Gold and Silver markets showed buoyancy for the day, while the Oil, Sugar, London robusta Coffee, Cocoa, Orange Juice, Corn and Platinum markets had a softer days trade and the New York arabica Coffee market took another sharp late in the day beating. The Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index that is made up from 17 markets is 0.02% lower; to see this Index registered at 436.63. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar maintain its muscle and trading at 1.542 to Sterling and 1.136 to the Euro, while North Sea Oil is showing a degree of buoyancy in early trade and is selling at $ 60.05 per barrel. The London and New York markets both started the day yesterday with the London market steady and the New York market experiencing a degree of positive buoyancy, but while the New York market took a steady track into the afternoon’s trade, the London market had turned modestly softer. As the afternoon progressed however the New York market started to come under pressure and moved back to join the London market in negative territory and finally with sell stops being triggered along with some post-holiday catch up price fixation selling from Brazil, the New York market overtook the London market and moved significantly lower. The London market continued to end the day on a soft note and with 76% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day setting new one year lows and with 95.5% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This was a very dismal performance for the markets and especially so with the more volatile New York market ending at the lows of the day.