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Zenith Report China Bottled Water 2013
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Contents Methodology
5
China Bottled Water Market Market volume trends, 2008-12 Market volume segmentation, 2008-12 Market volume forecast, 2013-17f Market value trends, 2008-12 Market value forecast, 2013-17f Average value per litre, 2008-12 Leading manufacturers by volume, 2008-12 Leading brands by volume, 2008-12 Chanel distribution split by volume, 2008-12 Packaging size split by volume, 2008-12
6 8 9 10 12 13 14 16 18 20 22
China Regional Bottled Water Markets: Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Sichuan, Yunnan Beijing Bottled Water Market Market volume trends Beijing, 2008-12 Market volume segmentation Beijing, 2008-12 Market volume forecast Beijing, 2013-17f Market value trends Beijing, 2008-12 Average value per litre Beijing, 2008-12 Leading manufacturers by volume Beijing, 2010 & 2012 Leading brands by volume Beijing, 2010 & 2012 Chanel distribution split by volume Beijing, 2012 Packaging size split by volume Beijing, 2008-12
24 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 39
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Contents Guangdong Bottled Water Market Market volume trends Guangdong, 2008-12 Market volume segmentation Guangdong, 2008-12 Market volume forecast Guangdong, 2013-17f Market value trends Guangdong, 2008-12 Average value per litre Guangdong, 2008-12 Leading manufacturers by volume Guangdong, 2010 & 2012 Leading brands by volume Guangdong, 2010 & 2012 Chanel distribution split by volume Guangdong, 2012 Packaging size split by volume Guangdong, 2008-12
40 42 43 44 46 47 47 51 53 55
Shanghai Bottled Water Market Market volume trends Shanghai, 2008-12 Market volume segmentation Shanghai, 2008-12 Market volume forecast Shanghai, 2013-17f Market value trends Shanghai, 2008-12 Average value per litre Shanghai, 2008-12 Leading manufacturers by volume Shanghai, 2010 & 2012 Leading brands by volume Shanghai, 2010 & 2012 Chanel distribution split by volume Shanghai, 2012 Packaging size split by volume Shanghai, 2008-12
56 58 59 60 62 63 65 67 69 71
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Contents Sichuan Bottled Water Market Market volume trends Sichuan, 2008-12 Market volume segmentation Sichuan, 2008-12 Market volume forecast Sichuan, 2013-17f Market value trends Sichuan, 2008-12 Average value per litre Sichuan, 2008-12 Leading manufacturers by volume Sichuan, 2010 & 2012 Leading brands by volume Sichuan, 2010 & 2012 Chanel distribution split by volume Sichuan, 2012 Packaging size split by volume Sichuan, 2008-12
72 73 75 76 78 79 81 83 85 87
Yunnan Bottled Water Market Market volume trends Yunnan, 2008-12 Market volume segmentation Yunnan, 2008-12 Market volume forecast Yunnan, 2013-17f Market value trends Yunnan, 2008-12 Average value per litre Yunnan, 2008-12 Leading manufacturers by volume Yunnan, 2010 & 2012 Leading brands by volume Yunnan, 2010 & 2012 Chanel distribution split by volume Yunnan, 2012 Packaging size split by volume Yunnan, 2008-12
88 90 91 92 94 95 97 99 101 103
Appendix Definitions Acronyms
104 105 107
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Methodology Research note In undertaking its research for this latest series of reports, Zenith depends upon the goodwill and co-operation of operators active in the marketplace and, as such, achieves a high level of accuracy. Throughout its ongoing research, Zenith has also utilised its internal data library and global databases, alongside other third party sources. Liability Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information presented in this document is accurate and that the opinions expressed are sound, Zenith International Ltd cannot be made liable for any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses resulting from decisions based on its contents.
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STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
CHINA BOTTLED WATER MARKET
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Bottled water volume
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Market volume trends 2008-12 Million litres 60,000
55,000
55,000
55,000
55,000
55,000
50,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Bottled water (mln litres)
40,000
% Change
30,000
Small pack (mln litres) Bulk (mln litres)
20,000
Total per capita consumption (litres)
10,000 0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Volume segmentation 2008-12 33.3%
33.3%
Volume % share Still packaged Sparkling packaged Bulk water
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Still packed Sparkling packed Bulk water
33.3%
Volume % share 2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Market volume forecast 2013-17f Million litres 100,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
90,000
2013f
80,000 70,000
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Bottled water (mln litres)
60,000
% Change
50,000 40,000
Small pack (mln litres)
30,000
Bulk (mln litres)
20,000
Total per capita consumption (litres)
10,000 0 2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Bottled water value
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Market value trends 2008-12 Bottled water value
Bottled water value 2008-12
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Chinese Yuan million
CNY million
120,000
% growth
100,000
€ million
80,000
% growth 60,000
US$ million 40,000
% growth 20,000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Market value forecast 2013-17f Chinese YuanBottled million water value
2013-17f
Bottled water value
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
200,000
CNY million
180,000 160,000
% growth
140,000
€ million
120,000 100,000
% growth
80,000
US$ million
60,000 40,000
% growth
20,000 2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Average value per litre 2008-12 Chinese Yuan 2.00
1.90
Value per litre 2008-12 1.90
1.90
1.90
1.90
1.80
Average value per litre
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Bottled water (CNY)
1.60
Small pack (CNY)
1.40
1.20
Bulk (CNY)
1.00
Bottled water (€)
0.80 0.60
Small pack (€)
0.40
Bulk (€)
0.20 0.00 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Bottled water (US$) Small pack (US$) Bulk (US$)
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Key manufacturers
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Leading manufacturers by volume 2008-12 Company1 1 8.2% Company2 2 7.8% Others 69.9%
Company3 3 7.3%
Company4 4 3.8% Company5 5 3.0%
Manufacturer volume % share, 2012
Volume sales (mln litres)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Others Volume % share Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Others
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Order of manufacturers is based on 2012 ranking.
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Key brands
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Leading brands by volume 2008-12 Others 17.0%
Brand 1 16.6%
Brand 2 16.6%
Brand 5 16.6%
Brand 4 16.6%
Brand 3 16.6%
Brand volume % share, 2012
Volume sales (mln litres)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Brand 1 Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Volume % share
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Brand 1 Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Order of brands is based on 2012 ranking.
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Channel distribution
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Distribution split by volume 2008-12 HOD 20.0%
Modern trade 20.0%
Volume % share
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Modern trade Discounters Discounters 20.0%
OOH 20.0%
Traditional stores OOH HOD
Traditional stores 20.0%
Total
Channel volume % share, 2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Packaging
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China bottled water Packaging size split by volume (litres) 2008-12
>10 litres 33.3%
0-2 litres 33.3%
Volume % share
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0-2 litres >2 to 10 litres >10 litres >2 to 10 litres 33.3%
Total
Packaging size volume % share, 2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
China Regional Bottled Water Markets
Beijing Guangdong Shanghai Sichuan Yunnan
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A Bottled Water Volume
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Market volume trends 2008-12 Million litres 60,000
55,000
2008 55,000
55,000
55,000
55,000
50,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
Bottled water (mln litres) % Change
40,000
Small pack (mln litres)
30,000
Bulk (mln litres)
20,000 10,000 0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Volume segmentation 2008-12 33.3%
33.3%
Volume % share
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Still packaged Still packaged
Sparkling packaged Sparkling packaged
Bulk water
Bulk water 33.3%
Volume % share 2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Market volume forecast 2013-17f Million litres 100,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
2013f
90,000 80,000
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Bottled water (mln litres)
70,000 60,000
% Change
50,000
Small pack (mln litres)
40,000
Bulk (mln litres)
30,000
20,000 10,000 0 2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A Bottled Water Value
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Market value trends 2008-12 Bottled water value 2008-12
Chinese Yuan million
Bottled water value
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
120,000
CNY million 100,000
% growth 80,000
€ million
60,000
% growth
40,000
US$ million
20,000
% growth
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Average value per litre 2008-12 Chinese Yuan 2.00
1.90
Value per litre 2008-12 1.90
1.90
1.90
1.90
Average value per litre
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Bottled water (CNY)
1.80 1.60
Small pack (CNY)
1.40
Bulk (CNY)
1.20 1.00
Bottled water (€)
0.80
Small pack (€)
0.60 0.40
Bulk (€)
0.20 0.00
Bottled water (US$) 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Small pack (US$) Bulk (US$)
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A Key Manufacturers
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Leading manufacturers by volume 2010 & 2012 Volume sales (mln litres)
Company1 1 8.2% Company2 2 7.8% Company3 3 7.3%
Company4 4 3.8% Company5 5 3.0% Others 69.9%
Manufacturer volume % share, 2012
2010
2012
2010
2012
Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Others
Volume % share Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Others
Order of manufacturers is based on 2012 ranking.
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A Key Brands
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Leading brands by volume 2010 & 2012 Others 17.0%
Brand 1 16.6%
Brand 2 16.6%
Brand 5 16.6%
Brand 4 16.6%
Brand 3 16.6%
Brand volume % share, 2012
Volume sales (mln litres)
2010
2012
Brand 1 Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Others Volume% share Brand 1 Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Others
2010
2012
Order of brands is based on 2012 ranking.
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A Channel Distribution
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Distribution split by volume 2012 HOD 20.0%
Modern trade 20.0%
2012
Million litres
Volume % share
Modern trade Discounters
Discounters 20.0%
OOH 20.0%
Traditional stores OOH HOD
Traditional stores 20.0%
Total
Channel volume % share, 2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A Packaging
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Region A bottled water Packaging size split by volume (litres) 2008-12
>10 litres 33.3%
0-2 litres 33.3%
Volume % share
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0-2 litres >2 to 10 litres >10 litres Total >2 to 10 litres 33.3%
Packaging size volume % share, 2012
Commentary
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Appendix Definitions
Zenith’s market figures capture the total sales to end consumers through every distribution channel over the period of a full calendar year. Bottled water market volume reflects the total annual bottled water volume sales to consumers from 1 st January to 31st December of a given year. Total market volume also indicates the total consumption for the same period. Value trends are also measured on the basis of value sales to end consumers and hence reflect the total expenditure by consumers through a calendar year. Bottled water market value is the total amount that consumers pay for bottled water products through all channels during 1 st January-31st December of a given year. Value per litre (vpl) measures the average price over the period of a calendar year paid for by consumers for bottled water through all channels. Bottled water: all kind of plain water (purified drinking, spring, mineral, etc.) in all packaging size formats sold to consumers. Enhanced waters and flavoured waters are excluded in the scope of this definition. Small pack (packed) water: bottled water packed in up to 10 litres pack formats. Bulk water: bottled water packed in over 10 litres formats. Modern trade: mainly organised retail, predominantly supermarkets and hypermarkets (e.g. Wal-mart, Carrefour, Tesco), but also smaller suboutlets of multiple grocers (for example, Tesco express, Sainsbury’s local). Also includes government owned stores and co-ops. Discounters: includes both hard and soft discounters (e.g. Aldi, Lidl, Penny, Netto, Plus, Denner, Dia). Discount retailers usually have basic merchandising, a limited product range and often a limited role of manufacturer brands (although this is now changing to some extent, with increasing number of discounters offering a wider range of branded goods). Every day low priced goods is the core model of discounters.
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Appendix Definitions Traditional stores: generally smaller outlets including mom and pop stores and traditional (independent) grocers. Also includes kiosks, street stalls and sales through vending machines. Out of home (OOH): on premise and on the go consumption, through both chains (McDonald's, Shell etc.) and independent outlets. Includes HoReCa (Hotels, Restaurants and Catering). Home and office delivery (HOD): sales directly to end users through delivery service offered by producer and/or via distributors.
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
Appendix Acronyms
CAGR CNY HOD Horeca mln OOH PCC VPL
compound annual growth rate Chinese Yuan home and office delivery hotels, restaurants, catering sector million out-of-home per capita consumption value per litre
STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION
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STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS COMMERCIAL & MARKET OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL WATER & GEOTHERMAL ENVIRONMENT & CARBON PACKAGING & DISTRIBUTION