zenithinternational 2016 Global Breakfast Drinks
Identifying opportunities in the liquid breakfast market
September 2016
Research Note In undertaking its research for this report, Zenith has utilised its internal data library and global databases, alongside other third party sources and interviews with the industry. Throughout its on-going research, Zenith also depends upon the goodwill and co-operation of operators active in the marketplace, and, as such, seeks to achieve a high level of accuracy. Liability This document contains information and may contain conclusions and recommendations. Every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate and that the opinions expressed are sound. However, Zenith International Ltd cannot be made liable for any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses resulting from decisions based on the information. Important notice on distribution This report should not be quoted, referred to or transmitted to another party, in whole or in part, with out the prior written consent of Zenith International Ltd. Should you desire to release a copy of this report to another party for information purposes, we request you and the requesting party to indemnify Zenith International from any liability related to the report distribution. Such readers however will not be considered “users� of this report.
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CONTENTS
The contacts at Zenith International in connection with this report are:
Juliette de Nettancourt Consultant Zenith International Ltd., UK
Tel: +44 1225 327934 jdenettancourt@zenithinternational.com Monika Fedor Consultant Zenith International Ltd., UK Tel: +44 1225 327936 mfedor@zenithinternational.com Esther Renfrew Market Intelligence Director Zenith International Ltd., UK Tel: +44 1225 327900 erenfrew@zenithinternational.com
Zenith International Ltd 7 Kingsmead Square Bath BA1 2AB United Kingdom T +44 (0) 1225 327900 F +44 (0) 1225 327901 www.zenithinternational.com
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Section
Page
1. Introduction
4
2. Breakfast cereal market
11
3. Liquid breakfast segment
21
4. Challenges and opportunities
31
5. Brand profiles
36
5.1 Brand profiles: Australia & New Zealand
37
5.2 Brand profiles: UK
47
5.3 Brand profiles: US
58
5.4 Brand profiles: China
65
5.5 Brand profiles: Brazil
72
5.6 Brand profiles: Rest of world
76
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zenithinternational 1. Introduction
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1. INTRODUCTION Identifying opportunities in the liquid breakfast market
Overview The aim of this report is to assess the evolution and latest developments in the breakfast drink sector, as well as identifying and summarising trends and new innovations in order to understand what opportunities exist for new product development.
Methodology In undertaking its research, Zenith International depends upon the goodwill and co-operation of firms in the marketplace to provide accurate figures on their activities and thus the market overall. However, as the breakfast drink category is still in the early phases of its product life cycle in Australia, USA and UK and has limited presence in many other countries, Zenith has generated best estimates from a combination of all industry sources. Therefore all figures presented should realistically be regarded as Zenith estimates. Yet, with the extent of crosschecking involved in the report and the industry’s assistance, Zenith believes a high level of accuracy has been achieved.
Report analysis A deep dive analysis of key markets, trends and developments, featuring brand profiles to benchmark against leading and innovative breakfast drinks worldwide, tracking recent innovation within the liquid breakfast category as well as investigating the future outlook of the market.
Breakfast drinks terminology A number of terms may be used to describe breakfast drinks in this report, including ready-to-drink breakfast (RTD breakfast), liquid breakfast, breakfast drinks and breakfast beverages.
Categories covered in this report: Breakfast drinks Products profiled in this report contain features that span a number of trends shaping the future of the breakfast drink sector, including: Health trends Eating habits and lifestyle Convenience
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1. INTRODUCTION Identifying opportunities in the liquid breakfast market
Scope and Definition: Breakfast drink For the purpose of this report, Zenith has designed its research scope as follows: Any product which is marketed as “formulated supplementary food” aiming to replace a traditional meal (usually breakfast), with a liquid “on-the-go” meal, representing an optimum combination of cereals and milk and marketed as offering “the nutrition of a bowl of cereal and milk”. We define the category using the following criteria: Shelf-stable Liquid Dairy-based drink High in protein and fibre Contains added minerals and vitamins Portable, on-the-go format Contain cereals (with the exception of the US market as most of the products marketed as breakfast drinks do not include cereals) Exclusions: This report excludes: Flavoured milk which does not contain added cereals Powdered breakfast beverages Breakfast fruit smoothies Coverage: This report includes an overview of the breakfast drink category, with an in-depth focus on the key markets of Australia, New Zealand, the UK and USA. The report also looks at other country markets where breakfast drinks have been introduced, most notably, Brazil and China. In addition, a variety of products from across the globe are profiled.
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1. INTRODUCTION The evolution of breakfast
The history of breakfast
Breakfast nowadays
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
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1. INTRODUCTION Benefits of consuming breakfast
Benefits of breakfast Commentary Commentary Commentary .
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1. INTRODUCTION Nutritional recommendation Healthy breakfast: Commentary
Commentary Commentary
Nutrient
Adult 19-50
Adult 50+
Iron Zinc Vitamin A Folate Vitamin C Recommended daily intake for men
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1. INTRODUCTION Nutritional value of key liquid breakfast brands Table 1: Nutritional value of key liquid breakfast brands Kellogg’s To Go Milk Chocolate
Sanitarium Weetabix On-TheUp&Go Choc Ice Go Chocolate
Serving size (ml) Calories (kcal) - calories from fat Total Fat
Cholesterol Sodium Potassium Total carbohydrate - Dietary fibre - Sugars - other carbohydrate Protein
Liquid breakfast nutrition: Commentary Commentary
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zenithinternational 2. Breakfast cereal market
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Definition
Cereals definition: According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), breakfast cereals are “foods prepared by swelling and roasting cereals or cereal products, e.g. corn flakes, puffed rice; cereals or maize, in grain form, precooked or otherwise prepared.” As per FAO established CODEX Alimentarius, also known as the “Food Code”, breakfast cereals includes the following products: ready to eat cereals (e.g. granola, cold cereals), instant cereals (on-the-go breakfast) and hot cereals (e.g. porridge). Breakfast cereals are split into two sub-categories: • Ready to eat (RTE) cold cereal includes any cereal that is consumed dry or with dairy/non-dairy milk (e.g. corn flakes, shredded wheat, toasted oat cereal); • Hot cereal includes oatmeal, instant oatmeal, hot wheat and other grain products that must be heated before eating.
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Declining cereal market The cereal market
Company focus
Commentary
Company
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary Commentary
Company Commentary Commentary Table 2: Net sales of leading companies operating in the cereal industry Company
Company
Company
Company
Commentary
Company
Net sales in 2015 (US$ million) Changes in net sales (%)
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Portfolio shift in the breakfast cereal market Portfolio shift Commentary Commentary
Commentary
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company
Commentary
Commentary Commentary
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company
Commentary Commentary Commentary
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company
Commentary Commentary
Commentary
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Company
Commentary Commentary Commentary
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Changing consumer behaviour Eating breakfast Commentary Commentary Consumer eating habits
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary Commentary
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2. BREAKFAST CEREAL MARKET Changing consumer behaviour Increasing alternatives to RTE breakfast
Breakfast on-the-go
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Need for new product development Commentary Commentary Commentary
Table 3: Percentage of population skipping breakfast on a daily basis UK
US
China
% of the population skipping breakfast
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zenithinternational 3. Liquid breakfast segment
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Overview of the liquid breakfast segment
Focus on liquid breakfast
Table 4: Market value in million, 2014-2016 2014e
Commentary
Brand
Commentary
Australia (AU$)
Commentary
UK (£)
2015e
2016e
Table 5: Market volume in million litres, 2014-2015 2014
Brand
2015
2016
Australia UK
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Australian market analysis Table 6: Australia liquid breakfast value in AU$ (millions)
Table 7: Australia liquid breakfast market value in AU$ (millions)
200
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Company
100
Others
50 0 2011
2011
Brand
150
Total Value 2012
Sanitarium
2013
Others
2014
2015
2016
Table 9: Australia liquid breakfast market volume in million litres
Total market value
Table 8: Sanitarium consumption in Australia in million litres
Brand
2014
2015
2016
Company
2016 2015
Others
2014
Total Value
2013 2012 2011
Commentary Commentary Commentary
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Australian market analysis Product positioning within the Australian market
Premium price Product Commentary
Product image
Niche
Mass market
Product image
Product Commentary
Sanitarium
Value price
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT UK market analysis Table 10: UK liquid breakfast market value in million £ Brand
2014
2015
Graph 1: UK market shares in 2016
2016
Brand
Brand 25%
25%
Brand Brand
Table 11: UK liquid breakfast market volume in million litres
25%
25%
Others Total value
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Others
2014
2015
2016
Others Total volume
Commentary Commentary Commentary
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT UK market analysis Product positioning within the UK market
Premium price Product Commentary
Product image
Niche
Mass market
Product image
Product Commentary
Value price
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT US market analysis
US market specifics
Key 2016 financial data:
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
Opportunities for breakfast drinks Commentary
Commentary Commentary
Consumer behaviour Commentary Commentary Commentary
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT US market analysis Product positioning within the US market
Premium price Product Commentary
Product image
Niche
Mass market
Product image
Product Commentary
Value price
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT China
Changes in breakfast habits
Marketing
Commentary
Commentary
Commentary
.
Commentary
New product development Commentary
Commentary Commentary
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3. LIQUID BREAKFAST SEGMENT Brazil Health trends Commentary Commentary
Brazil flavoured milk consumption
Commentary Commentary
Opportunities for breakfast drinks Commentary Commentary
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zenithinternational 4. Challenges and opportunities
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4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Global trends and developments within the liquid breakfast segment
• Commentary
Trends and developments
• Commentary
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Challenges and barriers
• Commentary
Insights and opportunities
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4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Global trends and developments within the liquid breakfast segment Key emerging trends include: Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
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4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Challenges and barriers within the liquid breakfast segment Key challenges and barriers include: Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
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4. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Insights and opportunities of the liquid breakfast segment Key insights and opportunities include: Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
Trend Commentary
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zenithinternational 5. Brand profiles
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zenithinternational 5.1 Brand profiles
Australia & New Zealand
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5.1 BRAND PROFILES Australia & New Zealand
Brands in focus: Country
Company
Brand
Price per pack
Country
Company
Brand
AU$XX for XXml
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5.1 BRAND PROFILES Australia & New Zealand
Up&Go Gluten Free Sanitarium Health & Wellbeing, Australia Website: www.upandgo.com.au Product description: Sanitarium launched a gluten free liquid breakfast for the Australian and New Zealand market, capitalising on new health trends. The product is 98.5% fat free and provides half the recommended daily calcium for an adult. Launch date: October 2015 Variants: Choc ice, and vanilla ice
Ingredients: Filtered water, skim milk powder, cane sugar, corn maltodextrin, soy protein, vegetable oils (sunflower, canola), inulin, hi-maize™ starch, flavours, fructose, mineral (calcium), food acid (332), vegetable gums (460, 466, 407), stabiliser (452), salt, vitamins (C, niacin, A, B12, B6, B2, B1, folate). The product provides 8.5g protein, 4g fibre, 18.8g of sugar and is 177kcal per carton. Pack size & type: Available in multipacks of 3 x 250ml at a recommended retail price of AU$6.05 per multipack.
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zenithinternational 5.2 Brand profiles
United Kingdom
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5.2 BRAND PROFILES United Kingdom
Brands in focus: Company
Brand
Price per pack
Company
Brand
ÂŁXX for XXml
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zenithinternational 5.3 Brand profiles
United States
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5.3 BRAND PROFILES United States
Brands in focus: Company
Brand
Price per pack
Company
Brand
US$XX for XXml
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zenithinternational 5.4 Brand profiles
China
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5.4 BRAND PROFILES China
Brands in focus: Company
Brand
Price per pack
Company
Brand
ÂĽXX for XXml
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zenithinternational 5.6 Brand profiles
Brazil
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5.5 BRAND PROFILES Brazil
Brands in focus: Country
Company
Brand
Price per pack
Country
Company
Brand
XX for XXml
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zenithinternational 5.5 Brand profiles
Rest of the world
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5.6 BRAND PROFILES Rest of the world
Brands in focus: Country
Company
Brand
Price per pack
Country
Company
Brand
XX for XXml
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