ADDED VALUE: THE BALANCING ACT Zidago Sako - Thursday, May 29, 2014
Remember IBM? Used to be biggest, maybe no longer but still here! (For a better understanding, please start by reading previous articles on this theme in our September 2013 and January 2014 releases)
Beating short-termism can be done and this is actually happening. It's all about being imaginative and creative. Since our latest piece on the subject, we have already heard about a lot of initiatives from companies and other types of organisations that are or have been approaching the issue the way we are suggesting. Research by Imperial College scientists (Thomas Moore, Health & Science Correspondent) reveals how economically powerfully our approach to long-termism may impact P/E ratio in favour of both sides of the funding equation without at all altering the fundamentals of economics. Also, we are discovering that the formally most prominent company on the planet (IBM) have been keeping this balance by just applying the principles of the approach we have been 'advocating' for. Referring to the research mentioned above, let's for a second imagine the impact of preventing 37 million human deaths worldwide by adopting our approach of reaching a consensus of cheaper price for healthier food and lifestyle in contexts currently being suggested in certain government quarters, what would the effect be on P/E to both sides of the funding equation whiles maintaining a sustained growth in the economy? Our analysis of this is a simple one: capital owners will win on the bond market as well as the stock market. The public sector benefits from this approach, because of less expenditure on repairing damaged health inflicted onto the public via unhealthy products and services yet funded with money borrowed from the market to make short terms gains. This will make savings, which in turn and if efficiently managed, should lead to more investment in better products and services, with healthier bodies and minds necessarily leading to a better yield on capital invested. Where private sector market is concerned in this case (of the possible implications of the Imperial College's study), the same should be valid, with the difference of less earnings (opportunity cost) in the short term as well as longer term of course for those who keep making the mistake of investing into products and services that may have a better P/E now but in the long run do not benefit healthier bodies and minds with diminishing returns as a consequence. However, if the above illustration were to be rejected on the grounds of wishful socialist thinking with no real capital market 'meat' on it, what about IBM's example, the 'crème de la crème' of capitalism? HBR (Harvard Business Review) in their June 2014 publication have interviewed Mr Samuel J Palmisano, former CEO at IBM (2002 to 2011). Much of the content of this interview in our view best illustrates what we mean when asking the question: Added Value: Capital or Consumption? The interview is titled: 'Managing Investors' and in essence is describing how both sides of the funding equation can be satisfied concomitantly and still run a truly viable business operation for the longer term. Mr Palmisano and his team's approach to dealing with this issue, was to dig deeper away from the usual, in order to find an innovative model of Capital Allocation not just applicable to IBM but also to any other business (or organisation for that matter) with a balanced economy at heart; it can be done. The key to the success of his model as we understand it is: Transparency, Trust, Dialogue/Negotiation and finally sheer Hard Work. Sako Technologies Limited Company Registered in England and Wales No 07713141 at 1A Sheepfold Lane, Amersham, Bucks HP7 9EL VAT No 169841269 - ICO Certificate of Reg. No ZA014926 www.sakotechnologies.com - zst@sakotechnologies.co.uk +44(0)7803342355
The simplicity of the idea is striking. He and his team thought that by setting P/E from $6 to $10 in 2010 that would allow them to fix through negotiation with shareholders, one of the unknown on any capital market: the unknown here being what makes capital owners tick? If this becomes a known variable in the funding equation, life is made so much (more) simpler to all sides. Everyone involved can go away and know what to expect, or do in order to pass the test, when they meet next. The magic of this is that Mr Palmisano did not invent the basis to his model. All he did was to apply one of the most basic rule in QMS. Self-setting objectives and meeting them no matter what. A penny less on the $10 of P/E and Mr Palmisano and his team would be in deep trouble. Shareholders have something to hold onto. Let's always remember that they have no real understanding of what goes on behind those published figures (and frankly they will never do). Maybe business has since become more complex today than it was when these shareholders were still around, and on this side of the equation (where Mr Palmisano was as CEO), or it could be due to other factors but in reality shareholders will not get it the way CEOs do, hence the transparency via the negotiation approach. And this is one of the points made in the interview when Mr Palmisano says: 'The portfolio guys tend to be older; their analysts tend to be younger'. A key observation to be made from the IBM experience is: if more and more companies make their choice for the 'long-term' funding strategy, the market will at some point force 'activist traders' (or 'joy-traders' as we kindly call them) to change and adopt or even follow the movement of where their real interest lie. Long-Termism does not at all need altering capitalism to become a threat to capital owners' interests. In our view it enhances it because it achieves sustained growth, a substantial degree of certainty and necessarily higher P/E. For those who have access to HBR, please do read the interview and you may be able to understand better the point we are making. For those who do not, we will, in our next Blog, provide more analysis of the interview in the context of Added Value: Capital or Consumption?
Sako Technologies Limited Company Registered in England and Wales No 07713141 at 1A Sheepfold Lane, Amersham, Bucks HP7 9EL VAT No 169841269 - ICO Certificate of Reg. No ZA014926 www.sakotechnologies.com - zst@sakotechnologies.co.uk +44(0)7803342355