Dashboard
Q2 2024
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q2 2024 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.
This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content.
Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, FQ SME Report June 2024, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, ABS Statistics; Unemployment Rate (trend adj), Household Spending Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index, pricemycar.com.au, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Roy Morgan & Westpac, FQ Car Parc Forecasting
Economic Indicators
economic performance
Business confidence in June 2024 is down against both the May result and June 2023. This is reinforced by the 0.4% increase in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months, reflecting the reduced ability of many businesses to hire or retain staff.
Despite this decline, consumers have however still been spending, with both consumer confidence and the household spending indicator up (if only marginally) year on year.
Businesses will hope that consumer sentiment will be reflected in business confidence in the coming months.
fuel prices
Source: Australian Petroleum Statistics, Australian Institute of Petroleum Weekly Petrol/ Diesel Reports
Fuel prices remain high at a national level, with both petrol and diesel having recorded elevated prices for much of the past year. We can see a higher level of volatility for petrol than diesel, with an increase of $4.30 over the past week.
Looking at fuel sales as a rough indicator of distances travelled (and spending propensity), it is interesting that all fuel types are up since April, but only regular fuel sales have seen growth when compared to the same period last year.
Similarly, despite diesel volumes increasing significantly from the previous period, they are well down on May ‘23.
vehicle sales
Vehicle sales have increased month on month in June, with nearly 120,000 new vehicles sold. With that said, the market is down more than 5,000 sales on June ‘23, suggesting the market could be slowing.
A similar trend is evident in EVs, with sales up compared to May, but not reaching the highs recorded in June ‘23.
Despite this, the used market remains strong, with over 190,000 used vehicles changing hands.
The Ford Ranger is the most sought vehicle for Australians in both the New and Used markets consistently drawing high levels of interest.
automotive inflation
The Automotive market is subject to inflationary pressures in the same way as many other sectors of the economy. This does tend to impact the market over the longer term, with all indicators increasing over the past 12 months.
From an aftermarket perspective though, it is significant that the two indicators to increase significantly month on month related to the prices consumers are paying for maintenance and repair services and spare parts and accessories. These increases will impact servicing volumes, driving consumers to attempt to save money by opting for more basic services.
EVGrowth Forecasts
new electric vehicle sales forecasts
Source: VFACTS 2014 – 2024, FQ Forecasting
Australia's EV market is experiencing remarkable growth. In 2023, nearly 100,000 EVs were sold, and the latest Fifth Quadrant New Vehicle Sales & Car Parc Growth Forecasts suggest this number could soar to around 385,000 by 2030.
This would increase EVs' share of new vehicle sales from around 8% in 2023 to nearly a third by the decade's end. When including hybrids, it's expected that almost twothirds of all vehicles sold will be either zero or low emissions, a clear indicator of the market's shift towards greener alternatives.
electric vehicle car parc forecasts
Despite the rising sales, the overall impact on the car parc will be slower, with the roughly 200,000 EVs currently on Australian roads projected to grow to about 1.85 million by 2030.
At this point, EVs will still make up less than 10% of the total car parc, (which is expected to exceed 23 million vehicles).
This slow transition underscores the long lifecycle of vehicles and the enduring presence of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
About AAAA
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy
Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA)
Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
7-8 Bastow Place
Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia
+61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
About Fifth Quadrant
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Selwyn Amelia McVeigh Director Account Director Fifth Quadrant Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 0420 248 689
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au amelia@fifthquadrant.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St
North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia
+61 (2) 9927 3333