Dashboard Q3 2024
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q3 2024 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.
This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content.
Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, FQ SME Report June 2024, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, ABS Statistics; Unemployment Rate (trend adj), Household Spending Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index, pricemycar.com.au, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Roy Morgan & Westpac, FQ Car Parc Forecasting
Economic Indicators
economic performance
Business confidence in June 2024 is up month on month, but still down against the September 2023 result. This aligns with the 0.34% increase in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months, talking to the challenges facing businesses when it comes to hiring or retaining staff.
Despite this decline, consumers have however still been spending, with consumer spending now well ahead of last year’s result, and household spending also up (if only marginally) year on year.
Businesses will hope that consumer sentiment will be reflected in business confidence in the coming months.
fuel prices
Source: Australian Petroleum Statistics, Australian Institute of Petroleum Weekly Petrol/ Diesel Reports
Fuel prices are finally coming down, with both petrol (down approx. 13c/l) and diesel (down approx. 25c/l) sitting at lower levels in the current period. We’ll continue tracking this closely in the coming months to see if it talks to a broader trend or is more of an isolated event.
Despite this decrease, we aren’t however seeing this translated through into increased fuel volumes (in the same way that we didn’t see a decline off the back of higher fuel prices. While there is an upward trend for premium petrol, the higher volume options of regular petrol and diesel haven’t seen any significant change over the past 12 months.
vehicle sales
New vehicle sales are slowing as we head towards the end of the year, with September’s result down about 10% on 2023. While the YTD figure is still well ahead of 2023, the strong end to last year means that we’re likely on track for a comparable total sales figure (~1.2m).
As has been the case through much of this year, we’re seeing growth in Zero and Low Emission vehicles (ZLEVs) –now up to almost a quarter of total sales – this is however mainly led by hybrids (15.7% YTD) rather than BEVs (7.4% YTD).
The used vehicle market also remains strong, with more than 200,000 second-hand vehicles sold in September, and the Ford Ranger holding strong as the top pick.
automotive inflation
Source: ABS Statistics; Monthly Business Turnover Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index
change vs. previous period
Despite a greater level of positivity in many of this edition’s statistics, inflation continues to paint a concerning picture. Both motor vehicle and parts retailing (-2.4) and wholesaling (-8.5) are down YoY, talking to the impact of reduced household spending on automotive businesses.
This is despite upward inflationary pressure on consumer service and repair spending, spare parts and accessories, and the raw cost of parts from manufacturers. Ultimately, this is another indicator of how consumers are reducing service frequency or extending intervals to offset increasing costs.
Car Parc Composition
vehicle age
6,224,428
5,910,728
5,004,662
vehicles in the AU car parc are 5+ years old
3,393,707
Pre-2010 2010 - 2014 2015 - 2019 2020-on
Source: TecAlliance Car Parc Data, VFACTS 2024
The core takeaway here is that 83% of vehicles in Australia are over five years old, while almost one in three fall into the pre-2010 category.
This reflects the average age of the Australian car parc, with many Australian households extending replacement cycles and choosing to hold onto vehicles for longer.
This suggests significant opportunities for aftermarket businesses across vehicle service and repair, as well as the associated parts and products. Workshop operators and parts retailers do however need to ensure that they’re maintaining the relevant knowledge and supplies to deliver to the needs of the market.
car parc country of origin (5+ years old)
Source: TecAlliance Car Parc Data 9,156,521 3,627,180
Focusing on vehicles that are five years or older highlights the clear dominance of Japanesemade vehicles (from brands like Toyota, Mitsubishi, Mazda, etc.) in the Australian car parc.
Despite Holden and Ford ending their local production, vehicles from these Australian brands still come in second at 3.6 million, reflecting the once-thriving domestic new car manufacturing industry.
German and South Korean vehicles then make up 1.7 million and 1.6 million respectively, talking to the strong European and Asian influences on our roads, while the remaining 950,996 vehicles represent the diversity of Australia's car market.
top 10 brands (5+ years old)
Given Japan’s overall position, it is no surprise that Toyota dominates the market with 3.58 million vehicles on the road, ahead of iconic Aussie brands Holden (1.98 million) and Ford (1.62 million), while Mazda, Nissan, and Hyundai make up the next tier.
Beyond this though, the wide variety of makes and models on road means mechanics and workshops need access to specialised tools, diagnostic equipment, and parts for a vast range of vehicles.
Ultimately this creates a level of complexity for workshop operators that likely leads to higher costs for consumers. This is a significant challenge for the industry given current cost-of-living pressures.
About AAAA
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy
Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA)
Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
7-8 Bastow Place
Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia
+61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
About Fifth Quadrant
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact: Ben Selwyn Amelia McVeigh Director Account Director Fifth Quadrant Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 0420 248 689
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au amelia@fifthquadrant.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St
North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia
+61 (2) 9927 3333