UK parties need to start planning for the next year’s general election

When Suella Braverman said that it was ‘not racist’ to shut borders to curb immigration, there was a determination in her intention The very fact that she believes depending on immigration will make British people lazy, or that fixating on multiculturalism is a folly - extremely ironic coming from the daughter of immigrants- Uma and Christie Fernandes Of course, Rt Hon Braverman is not known just by her ethnicity or even for it, her work precedes her Yet the party policies cannot be so extreme at this point and tone deaf to its own Home Secretary’s culture, roots or changing dynamics of its own demography

Polls suggest the Tory party may not win general elections next year Sir Keir Starmer has promised the EU citizens settled in Britain, a right to vote in the general election, if they are elected A wonderful thought- just 10 years late from saving Britain from a disastrous EU Referendum If there is a failure for the Tory party to win the general election, it will not be caused by migration numbers but by the repeated lies and infighting between politicians, who cannot see beyond their nose

PM Rishi Sunak has been blamed for his party’s failure in local council elections The buck ultimately stops with the leader, but let’s be honest, in the last 6 months, the government and party (at Westminster) have never been more stable (since 2021) The man, who celebrated his 43rd birthday last week, has held the helm with absolute calm, despite facing repeated personal attacks, on himself, his wife’s wealth, family ties, their clothes –and what not

The Irish Times wrote recently, British Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Kemi Badenoch, clashed with fellow Tory MPs in the House of Commons on Thursday after she stalled plans for a bonfire of EU laws That led to the first instance of unrest in the last 6 months affecting Mr Sunak’s stability as a PM

The failure at local elections furthered the bickering

In every country, no party should ever become this complacent Not fearing an Opposition, may how weak they sound- is a recipe for disaster The Karnataka election results are a living proof of what could go wrong for a mighty powerful but “ overconfident” party in a democracy

Tobias Elwood MP in an interview on television was baffled how right-wing Tories are still demanding a return of Boris Johnson as the leader of the party for next elections Interestingly Jacob Rees Mogg, despite his continuous attacks on PM Sunak, has of late been maintaining a certain neutral composure

Any party including the Tories need to have a strong leadership candidate before the next elections take place While Mr Sunak’s leadership so far has undoubtedly been one of the steadiest, is the country ready to “elect” him as the Prime Minister? If not, then who would become the face of the Tory party? When will that be decided?

Second, is Sir Starmer fit to lead his party to success and make policies that are not anti-India? If not, he would easily lose the vote of 1 7mn people in the UK and the support of billions of pounds

Third, what are the policies to cut the cost of living crisis?

How does the Labour party plan to deal with Brexit laws and policies? Or even the FTA with India?

With its relationship not that “ warm ” with India, how does the party plan to cope with already existing pro-policies? What happens to the Ukraine-UK friendship that Boris Johnson very lovingly nurtured?

There is a lot to think about, a lot to plan for, a lot to decide In the light of what’s ahead, the UK s obsession with migration numbers is not even worth that worry

Lessons for parties to learn from Karnataka

The Congress and the BJP have lessons to be drawn from the Karnataka verdict If the BJP truly wants to be a party trusted by all religious and linguistic communities, it must learn to respect them In a remarkable shift from the past, the Congress acknowledged that it must address questions of caste justice too Karnataka voters have imparted important lessons to India’s political class Let us start with BJP The party is unable to win states beyond its core political catchment areas, with Assam and Northeast as exceptions One problem is the mismatched relationship between a centralised BJP and weak state units, or a powerful PM and relatively lowprofile CMs Karnataka is a good example of how this can drag d o w n B J P ’ s s t a t e p r o s p e c t s A f t e r a l l , p o s t - Y e d i y u r a p p a ,

Karnataka witnessed an unprecedented centralisation of electoral strategy and campaign machinery One can argue that anti-incumbency meant BJP’s prospects were doomed from the start, or that Bommai could not be saved despite a valiant rescue effort by the Modi-Shah/Nadda triumvirate

What’s a fact is that weak BJP CMs needing the PM’s thorough intervention has constituted a norm, not an exception, as we saw in multiple elections over the last two years This can mean a leadership change a year or two before state elections (Gujarat, Tripura, Uttarakhand), or a prolonged campaign by the PM to save an unpopular incumbent These tactics do not always work, and Karnataka follows on the heels of Himachal Pradesh as a reminder There is another model to choose In UP and Assam, BJP CMs operate with a large degree of autonomy and enjoy a fair degree of popularity Contrast this to Bommai, who faced constant attacks from the proHindutva faction of the state When a CM is routinely attacked by his own party colleagues, and seen as beholden to other leaders, people are more likely to believe opposition claims that the leader possesses no real disciplinary authority to control political corruption

The first lesson for Congress is the importance of state leadership and organisation After all, the lion’s share of the electoral credit goes to the Karnataka state organisation, and its surefooted leadership who fronted the campaign It started campaigning a year back In the past Congress has repeatedly failed to politicise corruption perceptions and effect an electoral shift, which requires a sustained narrative provided by an active opposition The pre-1967 national Congress is often described as an umbrella formation containing distinct state units Karnataka demonstrates how a healthy high command should function, not throttling state units but ensuring effective coordination Mallikarjun Kharge deftly managed his first big challenge as Congress president The Gandhis also did well to lead from behind, acting as bullhorns for state-crafted narratives, while largely avoiding national issues

It is unlikely that the Bharat Jodo Yatra made any direct electoral impact, as Congress fought on state-level issues Yet, the post-yatra restoration of Gandhi family authority has certainly strengthened the bargaining hand of the high command, from which Kharge also draws his authority The streamlining of Congress leadership between ‘managerial’ Kharge and the ‘vision embodying’ Gandhis has worked well in Karnataka The loss is also a blessing in disguise for the BJP The BJP should work for the welfare of all sections of the people irrespective of caste and creed and nothing can be taken for granted

Welcome winds for Afghanistan

For two decades, the United States and its allies invested nearly two trillion dollars and thousands of lives in Afghanistan to prev e n t t h e T a l i b a n f r o m r e t a k i n g c o n t r o l T h e s t a t u s o f Afghanistan was considered uncertain due to the American military's exit and the overthrow of the Afghan government However, the reality is a little different

At least some of the Taliban's efforts to govern Afghanistan are as effective as those of their previous predecessors When the country’s currency, the Afghani, crashed to record lows in December 2021, the clerics resorted to a central bank staffed with Western-trained officials for guidance As America had frozen $9 5 billion of Afghanistan's foreign currency reserves, it lacked the resources to fix the currency through mass purchases As a result, the Taliban tightened capital restrictions, cracked down on smuggling and overhauled the hawala system to stop money from leaving the country The Afghani stabilised and is now just 7% lower against the dollar than it was the day before Kabul fell

Overall, the Taliban have strengthened the enforcement of economic law Tighter controls at the border led to a big increase in recorded exports and customs revenues Total revenues for the year ending March 2023 were $2 3bn, up by 10% on the year ending March 2021 According to a recent World Bank survey, the proportion of businesses that bribe customs officials is down from 62% to 8%

A similar understanding of the economic, social and cultural periphery underlies the special and dynamic relationship between Afghanistan and India The establishment of cordial ties between India and the Afghan ruler Zahir Shah's government was made possible by the signing of a "Friendship Treaty" in 1950 Based on its knowledge that social and economic devel- opments are essential for maintaining regional peace, India has actively participated in Afghanistan's development India’s programmes cover four broad areas in Afghanistan: infrastructure projects, humanitarian assistance, small and community-based development projects, education and capacity development

India's diplomatic posture was somewhat ambiguous when the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan Since then, India has taken a few small steps to develop a cooperative relationship with the Taliban government in Afghanistan India's stance may have changed as a result of Pakistan's internal unrest and the reduced influence of the United States and Russia in the area On June 2, 2022, Indian diplomats met Taliban commanders in Kabul A few weeks later, on June 23, India reopened its embassy in Kabul to coordinate humanitarian relief Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesman, stated in March of last year that the Taliban's administration in Kabul was prepared to offer a "secure environment" for the Indian embassy

A t t h e 1 4 t h S o u t h A s i a n A s s o c i a t i o n f o r R e g i o n a l Cooperation (SAARC) summit, held in Delhi in April 2007, Afghanistan became an official member of the association It created the potential for Afghanistan to develop into a hub for trade, transportation, and energy that would link the nations of the region from Central Asia to South Asia However, since the Taliban took control, SAARC has been attempting to expel them from the association because their leadership is made up of people who have been designated as international terrorists and because everything they stand for is opposed to the fundamental principles reflected in the SAARC Charter India should support Afghanistan as the people need India's humanitarian and financial help to stand on their feet

Political Sketchbook

Alpesh Patel

Daily Mail Claim India Stoked Leicester Riots – I call ‘BS’

The Daily Mail decided to run with this head line “Violent ethnic clashes in Leicester last year 'were stoked by Indian Prim e Minister Narend ra M odi's Hindu nationalist party', sources claim; so urces clai m that tho se in Bh aratiya Janata P arty (BJP) tried to incite violence”

While the article presents a compelling narrative of alleged interference by Indian political activists in UK community tensions, it s important to critically evaluate the sources and evidence provided The article relies heavily on unnamed "UK security sources" and "elements close to Indian prime minister Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)" The lack of specific attribution makes it difficult to assess the credibility of these sources

The only security sources of importance would be the security services themselves, and they would not be in the business of speaking to the Daily Mail During the clashes I w a s i n t e r v i e w e d o n G B N e w s – t h e p i e c e w e n t s o m e w h a t v i r a l Y o u ’ d e x p e c t s o m e o n e w o u l d h a v e whispered in my ear what to say I spoke to people on the ground in Leicester I spoke to politicians, Government officials Yet no one lobbied the narrative the paper alleges Rather the consistent message was that UK police must counter Islamist radicals and the Government policy of ‘Prevent’ in arresting radicalisation is useless and Leicester evidence of it

Moreover, the article mentions evidence of BJP-linked activists using closed WhatsApp groups to incite protests, but it doesn't provide any concrete examples or direct q u o t e s f r o m t h e s e a l l e g e d m e s s a g e s T h i s l a c k o f transparency raises questions about the veracity of these claims There is a big difference between WhatsApp groups chatter speaking of anger and boots on the ground from little old ladies in saris outside mandirs being barraged with abuse from masked men in black as police look on (And all WhatsApp groups are closed – so making i t s o u n d o m i n o u s f o r a s t o r y , i s n ’ t r e s p o n s i b l e journalism)

T h e a r t i c l e a l s o c i t e s s t u d i e s c o n d u c t e d b y t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r S t r a t e g i c D i a l o g u e a n d t h e N e t w o r k Contagion Research Institute, but it doesn't provide direct links to these studies or detailed information about their methodologies This makes it difficult for readers to independently verify the findings

F i n a l l y , t h e a r t i c l e s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e a l l e g e d interference is part of Mr Modi's desire to pose as the leader of Hindus across the world This is a significant claim that requires substantial evidence to support The article, however, doesn't provide any direct quotes or a c t i o n s f r o m M r M o d i o r h i s p a r t y t h a t w o u l d substantiate this claim

In conclusion, while the article raises important questions about potential foreign interference in UK community tensions, it's crucial to approach these claims with a healthy degree of skepticism given the lack of named sources, concrete evidence, and transparency in the reporting And when one considers the proximity of r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n t h e U K a n d I n d i a , i t w o u l d b e tantamount to saying the French would like to stoke UK community tensions

Moreover, why? For what purpose? What history is there for this? Any precedent, anywhere in the world? Or are there adversaries and enemies of India jealous of her proximity with the UK? This past week alone the UK and Indian Armies conducted joint exercises; the same week a r e p o r t s t a t e d t h e R u s s i a n s a r e p l a n t i n g f a k e K o r a n burning stories in Sweden to encourage Turkey to block Sweden’s entry to Nato

So, when it comes to UK-India, who’s the Russia in this? Whichever 3rd country it is, seems the journalists in their naivety have fallen for the trap