201504 outlook ecowas by Africa Report

OUTLOOK is a supplement to THE AFRICA REPORT N째70

GHANA SPECIAL

OUTLOOK Ecowas at 40 DIPLOMACY

I N T E G R AT I O N

15 C O U N T R Y P R O F I L E S

R ANKINGS

GHANA SPECIAL

THE PROMISE

NEW WEST

PAULO NOVAIS/EPA/MAXPPP

OF A

Not to be sold separately

EDITORIAL BY NICHOLAS NORBROOK

CONTENTS

New Nigeria, new ECOWAS

3 EDITORIAL 4 ECOWAS The next 40 years

here were a lot of presidents in the the presidential wing of Abuja airport on 23 March. Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) commission president Kadré Désiré Ouédraogo sat alongside President John Mahama of Ghana, the current ECOWAS chairman. Their host was Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan. Their conversation on respect for the rule of law and the democratic process is a recurrent one for ECOWAS leaders. The pair also met with Nigerian opposition challenger, now president-elect, Muhammadu Buhari with the same message. ECOWAS would not claim to have midwifed the first genuine elections in West Africa’s biggest economy: success has many fathers. But could the arrival of a truly democratic Nigeria be the final piece of the puzzle for ECOWAS’s big economic integration projects? Certainly, for a single currency the regional body needs Abuja on board. Nigeria represents 77% of West Africa’s gross domestic product, and its economy would be the guarantor of any single currency. With the current convulsions in Greece, however, there is less drive for a single monetary zone as ECOWAS celebrates its 40th anniversary this May. Buhari’s prowess as a former military leader could also help in re-establishing security in the Sahel. Sustainable peace is a foundation stone of sustainable

10 INTERVIEW Hanna Tetteh, foreign minister, Ghana

GHANA SPECIAL

COVER CREDITS: PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP; STEVE ABABIO FOR TAR

13 INTRODUCTION On the ropes 16 PORTS Downturn gives time for reflection 20 OIL AND GAS Tough tests for the emerging industry

COUNTRY REPORTS 25 INTRODUCTION ECOWAS country reports 41 BANKS RANKING The ECOWAS Top 40 banks 42 COMPANIES RANKING The ECOWAS Top 40 companies

economies, and if Nigeria can relaunch its economy in the north, who knows what positive feedback loops will be created? What is pressing is the need for greater trade between ECOWAS countries. This currently stands at 9%, compared to 26% for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Here is where a Nigeria liberated from Boko Haram’s threat could play a key role. Should Buhari’s administration fix electricity, transport and agriculture, the country’s non-oil economy will bloom even further. ECOWAS is already Nigeria’s second-largest non-oil export market, selling $350m of goods in the region in 2014. Nigeria’s potential as regional market counts too. Should the government also manage to plug the holes in the oil budget that allows revenue to leak into Swiss bank accounts, Nigeria will have serious spending power to match its ambitions. Nigeria’s whopping N1.3trn ($6.5bn) annual food import bill can only go up as meat consumption rises. The country should be a tempting target for farmers in ECOWAS countries. Complementarities could soon start to form. For example, Nigeria’s long-delayed Petroleum Industry Bill, if passed, could kickstart Nigerian production of both plastics and fertiliser, both items in demand in the region. Leaders will need to manage some old regional reflexes, such as the influence of Paris. But the next 40 years will bring challenges that need strong regional blocs more than ever. ●

A GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE PUBLICATION - 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE - TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 - WWW. theafricareport.com • CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED PUBLISHER DANIELLE BEN YAHMED EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER JÉRÔME MILLAN MARKETING AND DEVELOPMENT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL ● EDITOR IN CHIEF PATRICK SMITH MANAGING EDITOR NICHOLAS NORBROOK EDITORIAL@ THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ASSISTANT EDITOR CHARLIE HAMILTON ASSOCIATE EDITOR MARSHALL VAN VALEN EDITORIAL ASSISTANT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI SUB-EDITORS ERIN CONROY, ALISON CULLIFORD PROOFREADING KATHLEEN GRAY ● ART DIRECTOR MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER, ANAÏS QUÉRON, CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN PRODUCTION PHILIPPE MARTIN CHRISTIAN KASONGO PHOTOGRAPHY CLAIRE VATTEBLED ● SALES SANDRA DROUET, SOLÈNE DEFRANCQ TEL: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – FAX: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 SALES@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● ADVERTISING DIFCOM INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY ADVERTISING@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● ADVERTISING DIRECTOR NathaLie GUiLLerY • priNter Siep 77 – fraNce S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS As the West African regional body celebrates 40 years in May, The Africa Report looks at integration on the ground and what the next four decades could hold By Olivier Monnier in Abidjan and Nicholas Norbrook

The next T

he year is 2055, and the region formerly known as West Africa is now the beating heart of a greater AfroMediterranean trade bloc. The president of the bloc – Oheneba Nkrumah, a great-grand-daughter of the farsighted pan-Africanist Kwame Nkrumah–hasjustreturnedfromameeting of the United Nations. She secured a fresh deal on immigration from Europe: a quota system to allow a fair but sustainable number of Europeans to make the crossing over from Spain into North Africa. Northern Europe is carpeted in ice following the decline of the Gulf Stream current in 2040, and millions are seeking a better life further south.

Meanwhile, the merged metropole area of Lagos-Abidjan-Accra is now a financial hub to rival Singapore. The Sahel gleams with hundreds of square kilometres of solar panels – and the world's energy-intensive clean-tech manufacturers have gathered to take advantage, bringing jobs and tax revenue with them. That, at least, is the hope for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This hope is pinned on some solid fundamentals, too. There are 340 million souls dotted across the 15 member states of ECOWAS, which would make it the fourth most populous country after China, India and the US. Its gross domestic product (GDP) of

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

Leaders of the regional bloc are laying the foundations for a larger, stronger economic union

Togo that will be open for 24 hours per day, few people are holding their breath. Anniversaries are moments of introspection. As ECOWAS prepares to celebrate its 40th anniversary in May, what image stares back from the mirror? What must change, what fresh plans laid for the next 40 years? Looking at the competing trade blocs in Africa, such as the East African Community and the Southern African Customs Union, ECOWAS is far behind in the integration game. The key virtue – patience – is perhaps in short supply in a region battling deadly viruses and violent Islamists. The European Union took decades to construct and will take many more to perfect – the wielding of large supranational bodies to fix problems is like choreographing a waltz of supertankers.

40 years $675bn would make it the 21st richest country on earth. Serious businesses exist, like the producers in the $10trn global cocoa industry and the companies in the Gulf of Guinea oil sector – from the new frontiers like Ghana, Liberia and Senegal to the established gas and oil giants like Nigeria. The GDP of the ECOWAS region is also on track to grow by 7.1% this year.

Expressway, the checkpoints are numerous. Passengers sit in loaded buses that are routinely stopped by customs and immigration officers, the drivers questioned and a few asked for their passports if they look foreign. "These people come from all across Nigeria, Togo and Benin", says one okada driver referring to the traders, bike riders and smugglers. A few hundred naira or a couple of thousand CFA francs for the officers here will help you get by, even if you are not carrying goods to sell. Cargo truck drivers unprepared to pay bribes can sit several days before getting through. While the current ECOWAS chairman, President John Mahama of Ghana, has promised a border post with

PAYING BRIBES

But today's reality, where nation-states still reign supreme, is more than a little different from those hopes and dreams. Heading to the Seme border post between Nigeria and Benin or barreling down the dusty Lagos-Badagry S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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STRINGER/AFP

FAULT LINES

It is not surprising, given the dismembering of the region by Europeans at the Berlin Conference of 1884-1885 and the artificial patchwork of national administrations African leaders took over in the 1960s, that the post-colonial era has not been kind to the region. Independence wars, coups, military rule and corruption left the peoples of the ECOWAS region with gross domestic product per capita of $1,242.20 in 2012, or about $3.40 per day. The common solution proposed is strength in numbers, a diagnosis often made by business leaders like Mossadeck Bally, the chief executive of Azalaï Hotels, a group based in Bamako. “Economically, it's not viable to exist in individual countries. We have to profit from the synergies of being in a bigger market. Mali is 15 million people – that's smaller than Lagos,” he says. But the challenges to a strengthened ECOWAS are legion. Many fault lines run through West Africa: from a poorer, sparsely populated Sahel versus a richer string of cities on the coast, to horizontal bands of ethnicity rising up from the seaboard versus the national borders strung up like so many straight fences on the map. This mirrors the region's infrastructure, which was largely built to suit colonial resource extraction. François Conradie of NKC Independent Economists explains: “Railways and roads tend to run to the sea, complicating trade

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

SYLVAIN CHERKAOUI /JA

Evolution of an economic bloc

Dec. 2000 Aug. 1990 28 May 1975 15 West African countries sign the treaty of Lagos in Nigeria establishing the regional bloc.

1976

Cape Verde becomes the 16th member of ECOWAS.

The 16 member nations agree to establish a joint peace-keeping force to help contain the Liberian civil war.

May 1979

Mauritania formally withdraws from ECOWAS to join the Arab Maghreb Union, bringing membership down to 15 nations.

The Protocol Relating to the Free Movement of Persons, Residence and Establishment paves the way for 90-day visa-free travel for citizens of ECOWAS states.

between regional states.” Attempts to bridge this, like the West African Power Pool, the West African Gas Pipeline and the highway to bridge the coastal capitals, are still in fledgling state. Added to that is the different gravitational pulls of France on the French-speaking sphere and Britain and the US on the English-speaking one. For the late, great Africa scholar Ali Mazrui, the region's biggest historical divide was between Nigeria and France. This remains true today at the highest institutional level and stymies the grand ECOWAS project of a single currency – which is scheduled to launch in 2020 but still requires much foundational work. OVERLAPPING MEMBERSHIPS

Eight countries are in both ECOWAS and the CFA franc currency zone. They include Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire but crucially not Nigeria. These countries have their own regional organisation, the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA), which overlaps with ECOWAS, but provides a much more cohesive regional framework including a central bank, shared business practices, common legal systems, a shared language and, of course, the CFA franc itself, which is guaranteed by the French central bank and is a stable, strong and non-inflationary currency. For Gabriel Fall, the chairman of the

25 October 2013 Leaders of the 15 nations meet in Senegal for a special summit focused on moving the region towards a common market and a single currency by 2020.

1 January 2015

The bloc starts implementing the common external tariff (CET), which was approved in 2013.

Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières its economic union as part of a currency stock exchange in Abidjan, itself a powerunion, then it would have had to introful integrator of the franc zone, ECOWAS duce Greece-style austerity and probably does not really count in the economic have received a bailout from its neighsphere for CFA franc countries: “For there bours, which would have been expensto be genuine integration, you need at ive and controversial,” says Ashbourne. least two things – a significant amount of Nevertheless, one of the good things trade between countries and institutions achieved by Nigeria's outgoing President that do more than just pay their employees. That is the Nigeria's economy holds 77% case for UEMOA.” of the region's wealth and France is unlikely to agree to the rest of ECOWAS intwo-thirds of the population tegrating into the CFA franc zone, as that would mean taking on the Goodluck Jonathan was reconciliation liabilities of an extra 250 million people with the French government – witness and supporting the currency of the whole the Nigeria security conference in Paris of West Africa. On the other hand, it is in December 2014. There has also been hard to see the incentives for UEMOA greater contact between Abidjan and to dissolve into ECOWAS. Côte d'Ivoire Abuja, beyond just cooperation on rewould become a small fish in a big pond. gional security. Nigeria's $522bn economy represents 77% of the region's wealth and two-thirds COMMON EXTERNAL TARIFF of the population. A single currency for ECOWAS has been busy trying to push ECOWAS would therefore be primarily the early building blocks of integrabased on Nigeria's oil-driven economy, tion: from 1 January 2015, there eximporting petro-volatility into countries ists a common external tariff (CET) of, that would not benefit from oil's upside. at maximum, 35% for goods entering John Ashbourne of Capital Economics ECOWAS. It is a first step on the road to says there are such disparate economic building a larger economic union. Beconditions between the economies that cause ECOWAS is already a free-trade any currency union could be dangerous. area, the CET makes it a fully fledged The recent collapse of the Ghana cedi, customs union. for example, has helped address some This will be followed in 2016 by imbalances. “If Ghana had experienced biometric identity cards for the ●●●

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OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

THIERRY GOUEGNON / REUTERS

Biometric identity cards will replace the current document for visa-free travel in ECOWAS

region that will replace the current reasons to be cheerful, here, and could ECOWAS travel document that currently ECOWAS help? allows 90 days of visa-free travel around ECOWAS has had more successes on West Africa. The region has some of the the security and political front. The rehighest mobility in the world, with 68% gional bloc's interventions in civil wars of West Africa's international migrants in Sierra Leone and Liberia helped stave off total collapse in the 1990s. And though remaining in ECOWAS. These moves are baby steps – the CET some criticise the ECOWAS intervention still allows countries leeway over many products, and ECOWAS has done good work there are question marks in nudging its members over how these new commitments will clash with intowards democratic paths dividual country obligations in the World Trade Organisation. Big in Mali in 2012 as merely window dressindustrialists like Nigeria's cement king ing for a French military operation, the Aliko Dangote will be protected by the institution did a great deal of back-room measures, while cement imports from negotiation and sent in a regional force Morocco may suffer. quickly. The response to the Boko Haram militants in north-eastern Nigeria has POLITICAL FRONT been less coordinated, though perhaps More broadly on the African continent, new lessons are being learnt in the new there is a strand of economic nationalism Chad-Niger-Cameroon-Nigeria joint task that borrows from development models force that has won some key battles along in Asia, which favour the promotion of the borders against the militia. domestic champions and keeping trade Likewise, ECOWAS has done good barriers. Without political will, there is work in nudging its members towards little chance that this economic integdemocratic paths. When Burkina Faso's ration will happen soon. Could there be military stepped in during riots that ●●●

SOURCE: ECOWAS RENEWABLE ENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY STATUS REPORT 2014

Oil output and consumption in member states Total :

refinery output consumption

ECOWAS share of Africa’s population (%)

led to the ejection of President Blaise Compaoré in October 2014, ECOWAS successfully pleaded on behalf of the new regime to avoid sanctions, and the country is now headed towards legitimate elections. Nigeria is going through a smooth democratic transition, while Niger rebuffed President Mamadou Tandja's attempts to hold onto power in 2010. Ghana held peaceful elections in 2012 and parties learned lessons from the Supreme Court case that followed. In Senegal, citizens drove change to elect President Macky Sall in 2012. This may translate into governments that are better connected to citizens' concerns, and, as a result, governments that are more stable and strong. Perhaps that is a prerequisite for the kind of handover of sovereignty involved in a closer political and economic union. To avoid this being just science fiction, ECOWAS will need to make its own case to the citizens of West Africa. The unpopularity and disconnect between the European Union and its peoples further north should serve as a warning. ● With additional reporting by Billie Adwoa McTernan

GDP per capita in ECOWAS

242.2

101.3

29.4%

64.7 27.5

Cote d’Ivoire

22.1 Ghana

15.1 Nigeria

Goodluck Jonathan Feb 2010 – Feb 2012 Alassane Ouattara Feb 2012 – Mar 2014

(thousand barrels per day)

55.9

Chairman’s roll call

36.6

Senegal

$1,242.2 SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS

John Dramani Mahama Mar 2014 – present

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

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COWAS’s first 40 years were noteworthy. Under their leadership the region has experienced more growth, prosperity and stability than at any other time in history. Increased investment flows have played a big role in this success. With this in mind, ECOWAS recently partnered with the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI) to offer investors a home-grown solution to mitigate their risks. Despite abundant resources and opportunities for investors to reap record returns, the perception of political instability remains one of the main stumbling blocks to increasing investor confidence. ECOWAS Difcom - F.C. Photos : DR

expects the new partnership to alleviate investors’ fears and ultimately help increase the flow of FDI into the region.

ADVERTORIAL

ATI & ECOWAS set to define the next 40 years of prosperity for investors in the region

This partnership with ECOWAS gives us a unique opportunity to extend our reach and benefits to West Africa. Over the past decade, our brand has helped the East and Southern Africa regions attract $17 billion worth of trade and investments. Ultimately we help our member countries to turn potentially negative situations that could lead to investor flight into positive ones. This is what hope and optimism looks like and it’s what we plan to bring to investors in West Africa.

For more information visit www.ati-aca.org

(l to r) Kalilou Traore, Commissioner, Industry and Private Sector, ECOWAS and George Otieno, CEO of ATI.

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

INTERVIEW

Hanna Tetteh Foreign minister, Ghana

ECOWAS has played a stronger role as a political organisation Although the body was founded to spur West Africa’s economic integration, over the years it has worked more effectively to resolve political and military crises TAR: What is the scorecard after 40 years of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)? HANNA TETTEH: When ECOWAS started in 1975, it was to facilitate the economic integration of West Africa. Some of the early protocols were to facilitate the free movement of people. As a result, we don’t need entry visas to visit other ECOWAS states, and we can stay for up to three months without having to apply for any sort of extension visa or resident’s permit. We started the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme to promote trade and regional supply chains. We established other structures within ECOWAS to promote this regional agenda: the ECOWAS bank, the West African Health Organisation. Formal trade within the region is still quite low and hampered by bureaucracy. Why? Where we have fallen short is in working together to create key regional infrastructure. The key facilitators of trade are roads and transport. It’s only recently that we’ve started joint border posts that make it easy for people who are going by road to clear customs and immigration once, and not

have to go through the same process twice, which increases costs. We got the basic building blocks right. We are constrained because we are made up of 15 member states all of whom also have national priorities and agendas of their own. They [face] the challenges that most developing countries have of largely informal economies depending on customs for state revenues. Therefore, they find it difficult to forgo that revenue in the name of regional integration. How far have these initiatives moved towards economic and political pan-Africanism? Whenwetalkedaboutestablishing the continental free-trade area that was launched in Accra in 2011, we said we wanted to proceed with the coalition of the willing. There isn’t yet a structure [between African Union (AU) regional blocs], but there is a priority to work on a structure. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community are going to be launching their tripartite free-trade area soon. ECOWAS wants to negotiate with that bloc to become part of it. We also have a common external tar-

iff. We’ve put in place the building blocks for a customs union, so we have a basis for a regional negotiation with this bloc. We expect that the other two regional groupings, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the Arab Maghreb Union, with time will join that larger regional grouping. Has ECOWAS made more progress on security rather than economic issues? ECOWAS has played a stronger role as a political organisation promoting peace and security than as an economic organisation. There have been a number of events in the tumultuous history of member states that called for that role. Almost every ECOWAS member has had its own internal political struggles … even if it hasn’t gone to civil war, as with Liberia. Look at the situation in Sierra Leone, where you also had an ECOWAS intervention. Look most recently at Mali, where you had an ECOWAS intervention. Look

“Almost every ECOWAS member has had its own internal political struggles” at Guinea-Bissau … We’re getting to the point where GuineaBissau is being accepted into the international community and is not under sanctions. You had a number of contests for power that have required the leaderS U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

BUILDING A BLOC 31 May 1967 Born in Szeged, Hungary 1992 Graduated with a bachelor of law degree at the Ghana School of Law, Accra Dec 2000 Elected to parliament for the Awutu Senya constituency Feb 2009 Appointed minister for trade and industry by former president John Atta Mills

TIBOR ILLYES/EPA/MAXPPP

Jan 2013 President John Mahama names her foreign minister

ship of ECOWAS to find ways of resolving them.

framework between ECOWAS and ECCAS, it was decided that we would take the matter up at the AU Peace and Security Council.

So how did a plan for a regional intervention against Nigeria’s Boko Haram militants emerge? It has become bigger than a Nigerian issue. It has crossed borders into other states: Niger, Cameroon and Chad. At our last ECOWAS meeting, it was put on the table by Niger that this now needed a regional response. Because it involved countries that are not part of ECOWAS and we don’t have a peace and security S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

Six months after the overthrow of Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaoré, do you think the transition to democracy is credible? This [in Burkina Faso] is an interim transitional government and as chair of ECOWAS, one of the first things we did was to work with other member states to help •

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Mar 2014 Appointed chairperson of the ECOWAS Council of Ministers

the establishment of a transitional government to oversee elections and to have a new legitimately elected government. When President Compoaré resigned, we worked with Senegal and Nigeria, meeting with the various stakeholder groups and getting them to develop a consensus on the way forward. This was also facilitated by the ECOWAS Commission and the United Nations secretary general’s special representative Mohammed Ibn Chambas ... We are reasonably happy with the process and believe they will be able to stick to the broad framework of the programme that was agreed on so we can have elections in the last quarter of the year. What do you think ECOWAS should have achieved when it reaches its half-century anniversary? I would like to see that our common external tariff, which we are beginning to implement this year, would have taken root to the point that it is encouraging the creation of industries that have a regional focus in terms of the development of their supply chains and doing business within ECOWAS and outside. I would like to see us having built up our infrastructure to increase connectivity between our 15 member states. I would hope that the benefits of integration would be available to our citizens across ECOWAS so there is a rise in prosperity not in one member state but in all of our states. I hope that increased economic integration also stimulates social integration and stronger institutions to provide a more effective framework for the management of ECOWAS. I’d hope that we’d learn each other’s languages so that the children of our region would learn English, French and Portuguese and be fluent in those languages to be able to move across borders very easily and communicate. ● Interview by Billie Adwoa McTernan and Patrick Smith in Accra

GHANA SPECIAL

The government risks a repeat of the problems the country faced in the 1980s. The IMF is there to help with loans and a package of painful reforms

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Since 2014, President John Dramani Mahama has held the role of ECOWAS chairman

energy to a diversified economy, the country was ready for takeoff. That year, 2011, Ghana’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 15% was one of the fastest in the world. A year later, the country held multiparty elections after which the losing party took to the Supreme Court – not the streets – to dispute the electoral commission’s declaration thattheincumbent, President John Dramani Mahama, had won by a margin of about 3%. And after nine months of courtroom argumentation, much of it screened live on national television, opposition presidential con-

tender Nana Akufo-Addo immediately accepted the court’s confirmation of the result despite his misgivings. Foreigninvestmentsluicedthroughthe system,and there was rapid development in the Western Region city of Takoradi, the new oil and gas capital. Cocoa and gold production were advancing, too, in tandem with telecoms and information technology. Five top international hotel groups bought land to build luxury hotels in Accra as the conference industry started to boom. So what went wrong? With the budget and trade deficits hovering around 9%, the national debt spiralling and inflation hitting 17%, the government was running out of money by the end of last year. Making matters worse, the state electricity company imposed a series of swingeing power cuts across the country. Poor management of the country’s electricity supply has led to

M AY 2 015

THE AFRICA REPORT

By Billie Adwoa McTernan and Patrick Smith in Accra ike a brave and resilient boxer confounding the sceptics, Ghana was steadily climbing through the weight classes in the early 2000s. After being repeatedly knocked to the canvas by coups and debt crises, Ghana had come back harder and won raucous international plaudits. Then four years ago, it moved up to the next weight class. Ghana’s graduation from least developedtolower-middle-incomecountry after two decades of economic reform seemed to be the tipping point. With oil and gas set to contribute revenue and

THIERRY CHARLIER/AFP

On the ropes

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GHANA SPECIAL

OUTLOOK

BURKINA FASO

Tamale TOGO

GHANA Kumasi

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

ACCRA Takoradi

150 km

Gulf of Guinea

SOURCES: WORLD BANK 20131, AFRICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20142, UN CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 20143, IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20144

SNAPSHOT POPULATION

25.9 million1

URBAN POPULATION (% of total)

53%1

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

61.12

AID FLOWS

$1.8bn2

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

$3.2bn3

GDP

$48.14bn1

ANNUAL GDP GROWTH

7.6%1

INFLATION

15.73%4

INTERNET USERS

12.3%1

CHALLENGES Biggest obstacle faced by informal sector firms (%) Access to finance Electricity supply Water supply Access to land Access to tecnology

Manufacturing Services

Education workforce SOURCE: IMF

Corruption Crime 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

SOURCE: IMF

OIL FIELDS 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Oil production (millions of barrels)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

unrelenting power outages that extend “Since the middle of last year until today, to the industrial sector. the payroll has moved from 70% of [govOn 3 April, the International Monetary ernment] revenues to 46%. The target is 30% over the next three years.” That will Fund (IMF) board announced it would mean more redundancies and a freeze lend $918m to Ghana over three years on hiring in most departments, except to back a reform programme that is set to cut state spending, inflation and debt education and health. while boosting accountability and govAlso targeted is wasteful public spendernance. After a glimpse into a future of ing and inefficient and sometimes corhigh growth, industrialisation and fastrupt public procurement decisions, says Quartey in response to a damning rerising living standards, Ghana is back port by the auditor general’s departon the aid treadmill. The sort of reforms dutifully announced by the The IMF announced it would IMF – but not debated at lend $918m over three years length in parliament – are to back a reform programme a throwback to the 1980s. ThenfinanceministerKwesi Botchwey presided over several tough ment. “There was a committee set up adjustment programmes, in which the that called people back … there’s been a IMF and World Bank conditioned their lot of compliance, sanctioning and we’re financing on public spending cuts. Duralso enforcing.” ing that period, inflation was high, the According to Quartey, the government government tax haul weakened and is also serious about tackling the growing spending on the civil service ate away mountain of debt – estimated at 67.2% of at investment budgets. Botchwey is now GDP in 2014 by Moody’s rating agency. In back leading yet another round of dislate March, Moody’s downgraded Ghana cussions with the IMF. to B3, which is just another unpalatable reality for policymakers. “They [the ratCOST-CUTTING MEASURES ings agencies] can put up your cost of According to the IMF’s official statement borrowing, depending on your investors. in April: “Achieving key fiscal objectGhana is increasingly urbanised. ives will require strict containment of Agriculture now makes up only expenditure, in particular of the wage 20% of gross domestic product bill and subsidies.” That’s IMF-speak for cutting jobs in the civil service and increasing fuel and electricity prices. These are not measures likely to please the public, and presidential and parliamentary elections are but a year away. However, Mona Quartey, Ghana’s deputy minister of finance, is resolutely optimistic. In response to claims that some 20-30% of names on the state payroll were ‘ghost workers’, she insists the government has been dealing with that. “We’ve stopped manual payments and have gone to an electronic platform. The system paid according to two things [bank account details and employees’ social security numbers],” she explains. Before the new system started, Quartey says the accountant general gave state employees three months to validate their bank account details and social security numbers. “When it kicked in, there were all of a sudden 34,000 people who were not getting their salaries,” she adds. Many of those validated their details and are back on the payroll, but the remainder vanished into thin air. The results have been striking, says Quartey: S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

Nii Moi Thompson Director general, National Development Planning Commission

We need other players TAR: What is your timeframe for the National Development Plan? NII MOI THOMPSON: We are considering a 40-year time frame that will make it 2057, which is also when Ghana will be 100 years old. That timeline is also situated within a continental framework called Agenda 2063, which is the African Union’s own long-term development plan. Within that span, we expect to have a series of medium-term plans. We have policy frameworks that traditionally last four years, but perhaps we may increase them to five years. Will Ghana’s plan demand a stronger or weaker role for the state? We have a balance. There are two types of planning: the old Soviet-type of centralised planning where they made the decisions and allocated everything; and then there is the indicative or Frenchtype of planning where the most the government can do ... is to say ‘these are our aspirations and visions’, and then give some indicative guidelines as to where they can go. [Ghana’s plan is] indicative, that’s why it calls for the forging of alliances and partnerships ... We need other players.

STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER/REUTERS

How is Ghana going to manage urbanisation? We haven’t had a physical development planning framework for decades. The last one we had was from 1963 to 1970, and after the coup it was thrown out. That’s why the communities are springing up all over the place without proper planning. We are currently working with town and country planners to develop the first ever long-term special development framework in order to guide that.

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We somehow stumbled into lower middle-income [status] with all the frustrations that come with it. We are now about 54% urban, and by 2030 we expect to be about 60% urban with a growing middle class and the associated affluence. Now a typical Ghanaian home may have air conditioners, a washing machine, a dryer, a microwave – all the trappings of modern society – without the electricity to drive it. We thought we were going to remain rural forever. Agriculture is now just about 20% of gross domestic product. What about decentralisation? The process has been going on for a while. It should have been a lot faster than it is now. We now have the local government service, which is a step in the right direction. It’s now a question of moving more resources or at least allowing more resources to go to the local government. We are working very closely with the local government service to see how we can build their capacity ... but we think they can do more. Will the commission play a role in ensuring Ghana eliminates harmful clauses in government contracts? Everyone is pretty much aware of those loopholes or leakages. You didn’t even mention exemptions which the multinationals use a lot. We need to be able to quantify them. It’s the only way you can make a convincing argument. You cannot talk about underpricing, transfer pricing, under-invoicing, etc. unless you put numbers on them ... Part of the reason I’m trying to set up the policy-research fund is for us to see what the implications are. ● Interview by Billie Adwoa McTernan and Patrick Smith in Accra

INTERVIEW

They also know the fundamentals of the country and the measures we are putting in place.” Last year, Ghana floated a $1bn eurobond. Ghana pays more interest on its bond than the governments of Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Rwanda do on theirs because of concerns about controls on the Accra government’s public spending. “That’s why we have come up with a new debt management strategy – it’s all in our budget – smart borrowing,” says Quartey. That means choosing commercially viable projects and ensuring that social projects are backed by concessional funding. The IMF deal is likely to unlock more aid and financing. Quartey says there is no easy exit from the current crisis: “We don’t like where we are. Some of it has been from the vulnerabilities of what we sell, the external shocks of oil, gold and cocoa … We’ve gone through a patch where everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.” ButsheinsistsGhanawillbounceback: “We are cutting back but making sure we don’t compromise on social protection.” She adds, with a smile, that power minister Kwabena Donkor has promised to resign if he does not turn around the power crisis by the end of the year. For the next year, it is a race against time – for Quartey but also for the country at large – to stop the country from falling back into the traps of the 1980s. ●

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OUTLOOK

GHANA SPECIAL Takoradi will soon face competition from a freezone port at Atuabo

FRANCIS KOKOROKO

PORTS

Downturn gives time for reflection Amidst low oil prices and Ghana’s electricity crisis, the country’s ports are getting vast new improvements to support the local oil industry and attract regional trade

hana’s ports have faced setbacks with the country’s electricity crisis and the downturn in the price of oil, but multibillion-dollar expansions will create new opportunities. Captain James Owusu-Koranteng, director of the port at Takoradi, the hub of the oil and gas industry in Ghana’s Western Region, says that the oil price dip gives the contractors time to do upgrades before business picks up again. “We are in the preparatory stages. It is good that when there is a downturn you do the development, so by the time there in the upturn you will meet it,” says Owusu-Koranteng. Since the start of oil production in 2010, Takoradi – the Western Region’s capital and Ghana’s third-largest city – has launched improvements to make way for the new industry. Old hotels were spruced up, new ones sprang up, services companies came pouring in and local government and traditional leaders demanded a larger share of revenue from production. That initial optimism has withered over the past five years. Production at the Jubilee field is yet to reach the initially projected levels of 120,000 barrels per day. Delays to the Atuabo gas

plant held production back at Jubilee and then there was the dramatic drop in crude oil prices beginning last year. Contractors are expanding the Takoradi port so that traditional commercial activities – exports of manThere are government agencies currently involved in clearing goods arriving at the port.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY

ganese, bauxite and cement – are moved to another section of the port to free up space for an oil and gas terminal. Belgian company Jan De Nul is constructing the $216m project expected to be complete in 2016. Dredging is nearly complete, some sea space has been reclaimed and a breakwater has been installed in preparation for bulk cargo arrivals. For now, things are quite quiet inside the port. In the shipping yard, engineering and construction company Subsea 7 operates on newly reclaimed land. Engineers from its partner company Belmet Ghana are busily constructing equipment for oil companies Tullow and Eni, which are due to bring

two new oilfields into production in the next two years. Takoradi will soon face new competition further west following the announcement that Britain-based conglomerate Lonrho and some Ghanaian investors will establish a free-zone port at Atuabo – the site of the gas plant – to serve as an oil and gas hub. Last year, there was an initial push-back from five members of parliament who argued that the Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority (GPHA) should manage the building of ports in the country and that Lonhro’s plans would interfere with Takoradi’s expansion. The opposition has subsided and the Atuabo hub will go ahead. BROADER IMPACT

“There is always an advantage in competition. If we are not blocked and allowed to play in a competitive way, then it’s OK,” says Owusu-Koranteng, adding that the Takoradi port is currently in the process of applying for at least a partial free-port status. Some Western Region residents will welcome both ventures as muchneeded sources of employment. Belmet’s own engineering staff ● ● ●

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● ● ● includes a broad base of Ghanaians, but Maxwell Ibn Weniakem, the company’s project director, says that government could do more to ensure that Ghanaians could get more out of the industry by insisting that servicing equipment for the oil industry – including manifold piping systems to regulate pressure – be built in Ghana instead of imported. Twenty-five kilometres east of the capital, Accra, is Tema, the country’s largest port, which was built in 1962. Here, things are not smooth sailing either. Naved Zafar, managing director of shipping company Maersk Ghana, explains: “2014 was a year of significant economic challenges for Ghana ... continued devaluation of local currency, high and increasing inflation, removal of subsidies from utilities which led to an increase in prices of fuel and electricity, forex regulations imposed by the Bank of Ghana.”

LONG DELAYS

These trends have hurt all sectors of the economy. “On a year-on-year basis, the overall containerised imports into Ghana dropped by around 12% during 2014 compared to 2013. This obviously had an impact on the operations level of Tema port,” Zafar adds. Internal reforms are needed to improve Tema’s performance. Goods often wait as long as 20 days before they are cleared. Deputy trade minster Murtala Mohammed says that the ministry is working to reduce the number of checkpoints in the process down to 10, as 23

FRANCIS KOKOROKO

Containerised imports into Ghana dropped by around 12% in 2014

agencies are currently involved in the twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) clearing process. annually. After the first phase of the For Meridian Port Services (MPS), the expansion, this will rise to 2.4m in the operator of the Tema container terminal, next three to four years and then 3.5m the problem of clearance times will not with the construction of new container bequicklyresolved.MohammedSamara, terminals thereafter, Samara says. The the chief executive of MPS, says that sevcompanies will build eight new berths. eral stakeholders, including shippers, The expansion will provide relief in the consignees, customs clearing agents, incongested port where the GPHA says spection agencies and customs officials, container volume has risen by 64% in need to be involved in that discussion. the past 10 years. The power crisis is taking its toll too. “The major impact on our business is COMPETITIVE EDGE The Tema port development is spread coming from our customers who have not been able to run their businesses at across five phases, and the last phase the optimal level,” says Maersk Ghana’s will also see the construction of an oil Zafar. He says that manufacturers who services terminal and rig repair facilimport raw materials are cutting down ities. Another part of the project is the on imports because they are unable to widening of the Accra-Tema motorway run their factories at full capacity due from four to six lanes, which is expecto electricity cuts. Imports of fish and ted to be complete by 2018. Also set poultry have declined due to the irregular power supManufacturers are cutting ply to cold storage facilities. down on imports due to Despite the setbacks, electricity cuts at factories both Zafar and Samara are confident that Tema’s to go ahead this year is the improveexpansion plans will solidify Ghana’s ment and rehabilitation of rail links maritime position in the region. Tema will soon begin a $1.5bn improvement between Tema port and its free zones. programme. As at Takoradi, it includes The Ghana Free Zones Board began reland reclamation from the sea, dredging moving squatters off of its land, which and the construction of breakwaters. In is set to host an information technology November, MPS – owned by APM Terpark, in early 2014. minals, Bolloré Logistics and Maersk – The Ghanaian government and its and the government of Ghana signed partner investors say that by the time a memorandum of understanding on the Tema expansion is completed it the work programme. will be the largest and most efficient The port currently has a rough single port in West Africa. It will face competition from neighbouring Côte throughput capacity of one million d’Ivoire where a $2.5bn port expansion project in Abidjan scheduled for completion in 2020 will increase container capacity to 2.25m TEUs. Lagos’s Apapa port is the largest of the three in the city with a 700,000 TEU capacity, accounting for 50% of Nigeria’s incoming shipments. Benin, too, will provide some competition in attracting regional trade flows. Rehabilitation of a 1,050km rail line between Niger and Benin began last year. The Bolloré Group is carrying out the $1.06bn project that is slated to be part of a 2,500km West Africa rail system that will eventually serve Abidjan, Ouagadougou, Niamey and Cotonou. Once in operation, the railroad will ease trade for landlocked countries like Burkina Faso and Niger. ● Billie Adwoa McTernan in Takoradi and Tema S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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OUTLOOK

GHANA SPECIAL Tullow has nearly a 50% stake in the offshore TEN project, which is in a disputed region

TULLOW

OIL AND GAS

The emerging industry faces tough tests Ghana is suffering from a precipitous drop in oil prices, delays to the gas processing plant and a maritime border dispute

roduction and price shortfalls have hit Ghana’s oil industry and the wider economy this year, finance minister Seth Terkper told parliament in March as he explained the reason for a new round of government cost cutting. Firstly, production at the Jubilee field has fallen short of its target of 120,000 barrels per day (bpd). The operating companies had cut production because of the build-up of associated gas in the field: the original plan was to pipe that gas to a new processing plant at Atuabo, but the project was about two years behind schedule. The companies were faced with two unpalatable choices: either cut production and lose revenue or flare the gas, which would waste a valuable resource and cause pollution. The bigger blow to government revenue has been the fall in oil prices, deputy finance minister Mona Quartey tells The Africa Report: “We had to go

back to parliament and let them know the revenue that we projected – 4bn cedi ($1bn) – is more likely to be 2.5bn cedi.” The finance ministry had premised its 2015 budget on an oil price of $99 a barrel, based on a seven-year moving average. When oil prices fell to almost half that, the treasury had to recalculate. “We explained to parliament to say we’re going to drop the ceilings for expenditure on all the ministries, departments and agencies,” says Quartey. “We had already set ceilings for them, but we’re going to drop them even lower and we’re going to ask them to re-prioritise.” The government also wants to tap some 500m cedi from the Ghana Stabilisation Fund, the oil revenue fund intended to bolster government finances when there are sharp oil revenue shortfalls. Lower world oil prices are not entirely bad news for Ghana, according to Quartey: “We are both exporters and

importers of crude oil. We import crude oil to generate electricity, so you would find VRA [Volta River Authority] buying oil, and they have hedge programmes against prices going up.” Ghana’s imported gasoline, diesel and kerosene should also be cheaper, in line with lower world prices. Yet Ghanaians have seen few of the benefits from those market shifts. That is partly due to the government increasing value-added tax on gasoline and diesel sales earlier this year. President John Dramani Mahama’s government cited falling oil revenue as one of the main reasons that it opened negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a three-year programme worth $918m. The IMF board approved it, on condition that the government cut back public spending, on 3 April. Lower oil prices make meeting oil and gas production targets even more important. But there are some questions about forecasts from Ghana National Petroleum Corporation managing director Alex Mould that the offshore Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) oil project should produce 60,000bpd by the end of 2016. Mould also estimates that the Jubilee field should be producing 130,000bpd from Jubilee by then. Ghanaand neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire are embroiled in a maritime border dispute. Last September, Ghana asked the United Nations (UN) to arbitrate the matter under its maritime law conventions. After Côte d’Ivoire agreed to that settlement procedure, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) started hearings at the end of March. ‘ENDEMIC’ POLLUTION

Côte d’Ivoire has asked – until ITLOS makes its final ruling – that Ghana and the international oil companies cease exploration and licence negotiations in the disputed region, which includes the TEN project, to prevent “irrevocable” damage. Côte d’Ivoire also criticised Ghana’s oil regulations as non-transparent and “out of step with international standards”. It said Ghana allows “endemic” pollution both at Jubilee and TEN. Accra has called for the UN tribunal to ignore Côte d’Ivoire’s call for such ● ● ●

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GHANA SPECIAL

● ● ● provisional measures. Ghana’s justice minister Marietta Brew Appiah-Oppong estimates that arbitration could take up to three years. Her legal team points to the billions of dollars already invested in TEN and the financial damage that any suspension of activity would cause. Ireland’s Tullow Oil, which works with Kosmos Energy and others at Jubilee, has already seen its share price fall on the London Stock Exchange. This is partly due to the risks to TEN, in which Tullow has a stake of just under 50%.

DEAL TERMS UNDER SCRUTINY

In Accra civic activists and oil companies alike are eagerly watching the outcome of the dispute. It follows a string of controversies over the financial terms of recent oil contract awards and technical capability of some of the operators. The Accra-based Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP) is highly critical of the $7bn Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) deal, signed in January with Italy’s Eni and Switzerland-based oil trader Vitol. Eni predicts the field could

produce gas by 2018 and as much as feet of gas daily by 2019. But Ghana’s 80,000bpd of oil by 2019. Eni and Vitol Western Corridor gas project has been have already contracted international plagued by delays and cost overruns. equipment and service providers These are blamed on arguments over the multibillion-dollar China such as General Electric, Maersk Drilling and Yinson Holdings. Development Bank credit facility and the Ghana National Gas ComBut the ACEP argues that the pany’s poor management project, commended Ghana’s oil output could of the construction of the by President Mahama rise to almost pipeline and the gas proin his State of the Nacessing plant at Atuabo. tion speech in January, in aggregate production Contractors completed includes unnecessarily by 2019 the pipeline last Novemonerous financial terms SOURCE: GHANA’S NATIONAL ber and the commissionfor Ghana. In particular, PETROLEUM CORPORATION the ACEP argues that the ing of the Atuabo plant in government is committed to paying March. Atuabo – producing at about an above-market rate for gas and that 50% of capacity – is now supplying the the project also includes an excessive Aboadze thermal power station. The two-year delay to the gas plant premium for Eni-secured financing. inflicted a huge cost on the treasury Such questions notwithstanding, and damage to the wider economy Ghana’s oil and production is still set caused by unnecessary power cuts. to expand over the next five years: Industry experts say Ghana’s failure 120,000bpd from Jubilee, 80,000 from to complete the gas plant in time imOCTP and 60,000-80,000 from TEN posed a cost of at least $700m in oil should mean almost 300,000bpd in imports to run power stations that aggregate production by 2019. These three developments are also set should have been using gas. ● to produce 120m, 170m and 50m cubic Martin Yeboah

300,000bpd

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• We cross geographical and linguistic boundaries: We have representation in close to 40 African countries spanning English, French, Arabic and Portuguese speaking Africa. • We bring world class expertise and service delivery to the door-steps of local blue-chip and SME businesses in Ghana. Our Strengths • Partners with some of the largest Global insurance companies and close connections with Globus Network companies with pooled competencies and expertise throughout Africa. • Excellent customer relations and prompt payment of legitimate claims • Preferred Insurer of most of the multinational and blue chip companies in Ghana. • Sound Reinsurance. Contact Activa Today: Email: info@activa-ghana.com Tel: +233 302 686 352

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Dealer

A leader in local sales of phytosanitary products

Dealing in phytosanitary products

ADVERTORIAL

AGRITEC-SA

Dealing in irrigation systems and agro-processing equipment

Mr. Arman Konan, managing director

AGRITEC, an Ivorian company based in Abidjan, is a dealer of agricultural products, particularly fertilisers, insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, growth regulators, production aids and a wide variety of farming equipment. AGRITEC, a leader of distribution, is active in every major agricultural region of Côte d’Ivoire through its network of 40 sales outlets and is applying for the ISO 9001 certification (2008 version).

What is your educational and professional background? I am an agronomic engineer. I completed a degree in advances agronomics, specialising in agro-economy, at the National Polytechnic Institute in Yamoussoukro, Côte d’Ivoire, in 2003. I have ten years of professional experience in top management positions with a number of organisations in Côte d’Ivoire. How did the idea to create your own business come to you? During my engineering studies, I held a number of management positions within the association grouping Côte d’Ivoire’s top schools. During my final term, I worked with some friends on

the executive board to launch two big projects: “Think Africa’s Future” and “SME Initiative”. The first consisted in inviting the African intelligentsia, of which we were part, to build an awareness of our responsibility for our continent’s future. We sought to promote leadership in every sector in which would be working through actions designed to boost the development of our continent. The aim of the second project was to encourage graduates of the country’s top schools to embrace the concept of entrepreneurship. At that stage of our lives, we were convinced that building a strong nation meant boosting private initiatives. We also shared the idea that the path to social and financial success was to be found in running our own businesses. Through these ventures, it was clear in my mind that I was going to become a businessman. Going forward, my professional life has been about seeking the best business ideas while also taking care to stick to small budgets. Working with a business partner, I made my first attempt in 2008.

Even though it ended in failure, it also did nothing to change my ambitions. Everything fell into place during my last management position, when I was director of a phytosanitary firm. I saw an opportunity and knew I had a good chance in the sector. Without hesitation, I resigned from my position to start Agritec with my current partner. What qualities are necessary for an SME leader? First of all, one must believe in the enterprise. As the saying goes, “no one will believe in your business more than you.” When you believe in your project, you give yourself the means of reaching your goals. Above all, being a businessman means knowing how to take calculated risks. Keeping your word is key. Of course, for an SME, it is difficult to meet every deadline and every condition 100 percent of the time. But the most important thing is to honour every engagement sooner or later, and to keep the lines of communication with the other party open every step of the way. This is very important for your image. What advice would you give a younger person looking to get started?

I would simply say that anything is possible if you believe in it. You do not need to be born with a silver spoon in hand to succeed in the business world. Never hesitate when the feeling is right. The hardest part is taking the first step, passing from words to action. What are your plans for the future? Our ambition is to double our activity for the fiscal year 2015 and, above all, to meet our goal of becoming the leading local distributor of phytosanitary products in Côte d’Ivoire. With the help of partners, we are also preparing to build an ultramodern production facility for phytosanitary products. Related to this, we are studying every opportunity to bring new partners into the ownership of the facility.

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Difcom - F.C. Photos : DR

“Only those who do nothing make no mistakes.” Fears of failure and of stepping into the unknown are the two main roadblocks for the majority of project leaders. When we launched Agritec, we experienced many worries and many doubts about the survival of the business, especially during periods of financial tension. But we believed in it every step of the way. Anything is possible when you believe in it!

ECOWAS country reports CONTENTS 26

BENIN

BURKINA FASO

CABO VERDE

CÔTE D’IVOIRE

GAMBIA

GHANA

GUINEA

GUINEA-BISSAU

LIBERIA

MALI

NIGER

NIGERIA

SENEGAL

SIERRA LEONE

TOGO

MALI NIGER DAKAR

SENEGAL

BANJUL

NIAMEY

GAMBIA

BAMAKO

OUAGADOUGOU

GUINEA-

BISSAU BISSAU CONAKRY FREETOWN

BURKINA FASO

GUINEA

BENIN CÔTE D'IVOIRE

SIERRA LEONE MONROVIA

CABO-VERDE

NIGERIA

TOGO

YAMOUSSOUKRO

LIBERIA

PRAIA

GHANA

PORTOLOMÉ NOVO

ABUJA

ACCRA

Atlantic Ocean 300 km

By Marshall Van Valen

ECOWAS OIL RESERVES

s the Economic Community of West African States celebrates its 40th anniversary on 28 May, the countries that make up the regional block can look back on decades of solid economic growth and the development of a regional capacity to tackle crises, from the 1997 intervention in Sierra Leone to the political instability when President Blaise Compaoré stepped down in October 2014. West Africa’s leaders are not rushing to break down national borders and the goal of a new West African single currency by 2020 is not likely to be met. The Africa Report takes you on a tour of the region’s 15 member states to see what the months ahead hold for the democratic revolution in Nigeria, Burkina Faso’s attempts to organise elections for a new and legitimate government, the fight against rebels across the Sahel and Sierra Leone’s struggles to eliminate Ebola.● S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIPTIONS (per 100 inhabitants in ECOWAS)

Proven reserves (billion barrels)

Nigeria 37.2

SOURCE: ITU

Niger 0.15 Ghana 0.66

Côte d’Ivoire 0.1

Benin 0.01 SOURCE: ECOWAS

ECOWAS 2014 GDP

ECOWAS POPULATION

(% of regional total)

79.7% TOTAL

$745.6bn

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1.2% 1.8% 0.3% 4.6% 0.1% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 1.6% 1.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6%

Benin Burkina Faso Cabo Verde Côte d’Ivoire The Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-B Liberia Mali Niger Senegal Sierra Leone Togo

815 516 350

2015

2030

2050

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

Nigeria

(millions)

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

BENIN Bye-bye, Boni BENIN

Infrastructure spending reforms have given the economy a boost

he constitutional court ruled out a third term for President Thomas Boni Yayi in late 2014, and Benin heads to the polls in 2015 as parties prepare for presidential elections in 2016. Legislative elections are due on 16 April, with local ones to follow on 31 May of this year. Those votes will give an idea of the strength of the opposition’s national support and whether Boni Yayi’s Forces Cauris pour un Bénin Emergent (FCBE) coalition of 50-odd parties will survive his presidency. In February, the government ended months of speculation about the delays to the elections, which had fuelled talk about the possibility that Boni Yayi might try to stay in power for a third term. Fighting about election budgets and the transparency of the electoral register led to the postponement of the polls. The constitutional court finally ruled in November 2014 that the government cannot modify the constitution’s provisions that limit the president to two terms. Boni Yayi and his supporters insist that they want to amend the constitution to enshrine the role of the Commission Electorale Nationale Autonome and other institutions, but time is running out and there is a period busy with elections ahead. SHIFTING ALLIANCES

The opposition regularly criticises how polls in Benin are conducted, so the advances made towards the holding of elections are not likely to relieve all of the tension between Boni Yayi and his opponents. Elections are a time for shifting alliances, too, and some 30 parliamentarians are heading to the April vote under the banner of a different party. Boni Yayi’s allies have already begun

a rail link between the port of Cotonou and Niamey, Niger’s capital. It is part of a more ambitious long-term project to link Cotonou with Lomé, Abidjan and Ouagadougou. The lack of infrastructure and the weak business climate are holding back economic development. The country rose 16 places in the World Bank’s 2015 Doing Business rankings but from a low base. It was in 151st place of 189 countries surveyed, and its most marked improvement was in terms of the time it takes to register a business. Other reforms implemented include the reduction in time to obtain building permits and the creation of a commercial tribunal to hear business disputes.

BURKINA FASO

President Boni Yayi will not stand for re-election in 2016

Parakou TOGO NIGERIA

GHANA PORTO NOVO Cotonou

150 km

Gulf of Guinea

Population: 10.3 million Population growth: 2.7% ■ GDP per capita: $872 ■ Life expectancy: 59.3 ■ Adult literacy: 38.45% ■ Inflation: 1.65% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 165 ■ Foreign direct investment: $320m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -9.16% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 93% ■ Key export: Cotton ■ Last change of leader: 2006 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

5.4 ■

5.6

5.5

TAXATION OVERHAUL

5.2

GDP ($bn)

7.5

8.3

9.2

10.1

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

to ditch him and set out on their own. National assembly president Mathurin Coffi Nago quit the FCBE in February in protest about the government’s attempts to revise the constitution. He established his own coalition of former Boni Yayi supporters, the Forces Démocratiques Unies, in March. The economy is growing steadily as businessmen await the development of $11bn in projects that the government plans to develop with concessional finance after a successful fundraising conference in July 2014. Benin and Niger are working together with France’s Bolloré on the development of

The government says that it wants the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) support for its reform programme, but talks on the substance of an IMF deal will be delayed until at least June. Boni Yayi’s administration has launched projects to overhaul its taxation and customs policies but has failed to deliver on its promises of privatising some state-owned businesses. The government has a major role in the management of the cotton sector since it took over from private interests in 2012. The Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement announced in February that it had arranged loans worth $200m from a consortium of banks to support the current cotton season. After a harvest of just more than 300,000tn in the 2013/2014 season, the government predicts that production will rise to 360,000tn in 2014/2015. Low cotton prices are a threat to the economy and have pushed the government to overspend on subsidies to the industry. A survey of the country’s mining potential was conducted in 2014, and since then the government has been trying to attract investment. The mines ministry says that the country contains sizeable reserves of gold, iron and phosphates, but companies have yet to show a real interest. ●

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

BURKINA FASO A testing transition The transitional government is organising elections planned for October 2015

MALI NIGER

Investors await a new government before making any commitments

OUAGADOUGOU

BURK INA FA SO

Bobo-Dioulasso

hetransitionalgovernmenthas many obstacles to surmount before the holding of national elections in October. Since coming to power in November after long-serving President Blaise Compaoré quit in the face of popular protests, the government has dialled back its ambitions for reform due to the short time frame and the difficulties in erasing the traces of a 27-year-old autocratic regime. Another challenge is that the economy is slowing due to a drop in tourism and decreases in the price for Burkina Faso’s gold and cotton exports. Some of transitional President Michel Kafando’s top priorities are fighting corruption and improving the justice system. The government launched a national justice forum in March to canvas for reform ideas that will reinforce the independence of the judiciary. In the same month, parliament voted through a tough anti-corruption law, which was the first legislative act of the transition.

GHANA CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Population: 16.9m Population growth: 2.8% ■ GDP per capita: $767 ■ Life expectancy: 56.3 ■ Adult literacy: 36.02% ■ Inflation: 1.5% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 181 ■ Foreign direct investment: $374m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -7.21% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 66% ■ Key export: Cotton ■ Last change of leader: 2014 ■ GDP growth (%) ■

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6.7

RATTLED NERVES

6.8

9.0 ■

GDP ($bn)

11.0

12.0

13.4

14.8

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

6.6

The government began the revision of the electoral register in March, and several candidates are already jockeying for position in the presidential race. One of the frontrunners is Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, a former prime minister and Compaoré ally who broke with the ruling Congrès pour la Démocratie et le Progrès in January 2014. Zéphirin Diabré, who has strengthened the opposition’s position over the past few years, says that Kaboré is tainted, too, from his years of collaboration with Compaoré. Djibril Bassolé, Compaoré’s foreign minister, is another contender. He is a general in the armed forces and asked for a two-year dispensation from the military in order to work on personal •

100 km

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CANDIDATES LINE UP

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

BENIN TOGO

projects. Other military men talking about running for the presidency in October include Jean-Baptiste Natama and Yacouba Ouedraogo. The role of the military is a subject of lively political debate, as troops played a critical role in the events that led to Compaoré’s decision to leave office. Keen to preserve its privilege, members of the top brass insisted that Lieutenant Colonel Yacouba Isaac Zida serve as transitional prime minister. Civil society groups that participated in the uprising against Compaoré, like the Balai Citoyen, are calling for the demilitarisation of politics. For its part, the presidential •

M AY 2 015

guard is looking to broaden its authority and to take on the role of fighting terrorism and organised crime. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the golden days of 2012/2013 are long gone due to lower returns from the cotton and gold sectors. The country’s political instability has also delayed investments in mining, agriculture and infrastructure. Ratings agency Standard & Poors downgraded the country’s rating to B- in December 2014, predicting that gross domestic product growth would drop to 4.5% in 2015 due to reduced exports and a lack of public and private investment. Many miners suspended their projects in late 2014. The transitional government has brought uncertainty to the mining sector since then. The previous government was seen as having a light hand with mining houses, and in mid-March the transitional government suspended the Pan African Minerals’ manganese export permits. It explained that the decision was based on the company’s failure to invest in the infrastructure projects mentioned in the firm’s mining convention. Companies are waiting until there is a new government before making important decisions. Public sector workers went on a short strike in February to demand higher salaries and to call on the government to take action against the high cost of living. With the economic downturn bringing reduced government revenue, the transitional authorities have not been quick to commit more money to meeting the strikers demands. In December, the government announced that it plans to examine the privatisations that Compaoré conducted in order to ensure that the proper procedures were followed. The state could reclaim its stakes if it finds any irregularities. One target of the investigation is Société de Construction et de Gestion Immobilière, which the government sold to Alizéta Ouédraogo, the mother-inlaw of Compaoré’s brother François. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

CABO VERDE Poll positions The PAICV and MpD are gearing up for the 2016 national elections WI

Tourism has slumped, but new low-cost connections could boost prospects

he opposition and ruling party are preparing for national elections planned for 2016, with issues such as the economic slowdown and the rise of criminality high on the agenda. This year, the governing Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde (PAICV) got a new leader, Janira Hopffer Almada, who is promising to introduce a young dynamic to the party. After 12 years in the opposition, the centre-right Movimento para a Democracia (MpD) is lambasting the government’s economic management and calling on grassroots activists to organise for victory. Janira Hopffer Almada, 35 and the current minister for youth, took over the leadership of the PAICV in January. The party is divided and she defeated parliament leader Felisberto Vieira, who took 40% of the vote at a party congress in December. She is the PAICV’s first woman leader and replaced Prime Minister José Maria Neves, who was party leader for the past 15 years. She will be the PAICV prime ministerial candidate next year and said she would not seek a government reshuffle ahead of the vote in order to bolster party unity. She said her focus is on the economy and that she would promote “economic diplomacy” as a means to spur growth. TARGETING CRIME

MpD leader Ulisses Correia e Silva used the party’s 25th anniversary celebrations inMarchtorallysupportersfornextyear’s polls. The party has been organising conferences at the grassroots in order to encourage dialogue and the search for solutions to the country’s problems. An unidentified person tried to kill José Luís Neves, the son of Prime Minister Neves, in January. Since then, the

of political office holders, raising the ire of the country’s unions. There were several public-sector strikes in early 2015. To improve the economy, the government sat down in February with unions and employers to reform the labour code. Central bank governor João Serra, who took office in January, announced a new round of policies to boost the economy, including the reduction of interest rates. He talked with managers of the country’s banks in early 2015 to encourage lending to productive sectors of the economy in order to reduce youth unemployment.

CABO VERDE ND

ISLES Atlantic Ocean ISLES ARD

PRAÏA

50 km

Population: 0.5 million Population growth: 0.8% ■ GDP per capita: $3,809 ■ Life expectancy: 75.1 ■ Adult literacy: 87.58% ■ Inflation: 0.76% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 123 ■ Foreign direct investment: $19m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -5.84% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 100% ■ Key export: Mackerel ■ Last change of leader: 2011 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

1.2 ■

EUROPEAN INFLUENCE

3.0 0.5

1.0

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2012

2013*

2014*

2015*

GDP ($bn)

defence ministry has said that the government needs to take a stronger stance against organised crime. In its last major operation, the police seized 521kg of cocaine on the island of São Vicente in November 2014. The legislative session heated up in March with the opposition claiming that the government is using state resources for its electoral gain. MpD parliamentarians said that the PAICV government has channelled money for campaigning through the ministry for youth. In a climate of high unemployment and a low minimum wage, the PAICV introduced a law in March to increase the salaries

*Estimation Oct. 2014

The overall unemployment rate dropped slightlyto 15.8%in2014butremainsstubbornly high. Youth unemployment hit 35.8% for the 15-24 age group last year. Cabo Verde’s economy is tied to Europe’s and has experienced a similar downturn. The Ebola crisis has had a strong impact on tourism, the economy’s principal sector. Tourist arrivals declined for the first time in several years as people stayed away from West Africa, even though Cabo Verde had no Ebola cases. The national statistics institute reported that hotel visitors dropped by 2.3% in 2014 to 540,000. The International Monetary Fund says it expects tourism and foreign investment to pick up this year. The government announced in March that it is working with the European Union on an agreement that would allow European low-cost airlines to compete with the four airlines that serve the country. One of the government’s planned investments is for a $200m desalination plant on Santiago island. The Japan International Cooperation Agency is providing the majority of the funds for the project, which should be complete within five years. The government has shown a willingness to reform troubled state-owned enterprises.Itsignedmanagementcontracts for its electricity utility and national airline in 2014, though Brazil’s PT Ventures reportedly lost its management contract for Cabo Verde Telecom in March due to government dissatisfaction. ●

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

CÔTE D’IVOIRE Ouattara on top MALI

GUINEA

A booming economy and divided opposition are helping Ouattara’s RDR The government has failed to prosecute the crimes of Ouattara supporters

Abidjan

Population: 20.3 million Population growth: 2.3% ■ GDP per capita: $1,370 ■ Life expectancy: 50.7 ■ Adult literacy: 43.11% ■ Inflation: 0.63% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 171 ■ Foreign direct investment: $371m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -3.02% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 95% ■ Key export: Cocoa ■ Last change of leader: 2010 ■ GDP growth (%) ■

■

8.7

8.5

7.9

27.7

32.0

34.0

38.2

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2014

■

10.7

leader of the Liberté et Démocratie pour la République party, hopes to unite dissidents from the FPI and the PDCI. Due to the meagre achievements of the national reconciliation commission, whose mandate expired this year, the government launched the Commission Nationale de Réconciliation et d’Indemnisation des Victimes in late March. The previous commission did not accomplish much, and the government has not prosecuted the crimes committed by President Ouattara’s supporters with the same fervour with which it does Gbagbo’s. Among President Ouattara’s priorities for after the election, which he is likely

The FPI is faced with its own deep divisions. A cabal of party members attempted to suspend FPI president Pascal Affi N’Guessan in March. Since French and United Nations troops helped to dislodge Gbagbo in April 2011 after the contested 2010elections,therehavebeentwopower bases competing for control of the party. N’Guessan represents the group arguing that the FPI has to look beyond Gbagbo, who faces trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. A smaller group that includes Abou Drahamane Sangaré argues that Gbagbo’s liberation should be theparty’smaintask.MamadouKoulibaly, •

M AY 2 015

to win, is the revision of the constitution. Most of the government’s priorities are in the economic sphere, however. Prime Minister Daniel Kablan Duncan announced in March that the country aims to jump about 100 places in the World Bank’s Doing Business survey within three years. MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE

Gulf of Guinea

200 km

COMPETING POWER BASES

N ° 70

YAMOUSSOUKRO

GHANA

LIBERIA

•

CÔTE D'IVOIRE Bouaké

ith the backing of a key alliance partner and the opposition Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI) still a shadow of its former self, President Alassane Ouattara and his Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR) are set to win the October 2015 elections. The economy is in a post-conflict boom, but issues of justice and reconciliation continue to weigh heavily on the political scene. In early March, former President Henri Konan Bédié’s Parti Démocratique de la Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) confirmed its support for the RDR’s Ouattara as its preferred presidential candidate. The PDCI backed Ouattara in the contested 2010 polls that led to the defeat of former President Laurent Gbagbo. The fact that the PDCI will not have its own candidate did not please all party members. A group including former prime minister Charles Konan Banny, former national assembly vice-president Jérôme Kablan Brou and former foreign minister Amara Essy says it will defy the party hierarchy and name its own presidential candidate.

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

BURKINA FASO

International investors support the government’s agenda. The country launched an oversubscribed $1bn eurobond in February to help finance its infrastructure construction programme. It had issued a $750m eurobond in 2014. Last year, the African Development Bank also returned 1,500 of its employees to Abidjan after closing its operations in the country more than a decade ago. The government’s top infrastructure priorities include improvements to the roads leading to the border with Burkina Faso, the construction of the highway linking Yamoussoukro to Bouaké and the building of the railroad from the port at San Pedro to Man, around which mining concessions are located. Ouattara says he wants to strengthen the private sector rather than create a large role for the state. The government’s privatisation programme is making slow progress, and the government sold 25% of the Société Ivoirienne de Banque to Attijariwafa Bank in March. The trade ministry is working on its Phoenix project, which aims to double the number of small businesses in the next five years. The local cocoa industry is the world’s top producer of cocoa beans and a huge source of employment. Withabout a third of the 2013/2014 crop of 1.7m tonnes processed locally, the government wants to increase that to 50% within five years. Singaporean company Olam opened a new cocoa treatment plant in March, and French chocolate maker Cémoi is building a factory. The economic growth is not benefiting everyone. N’Guessan and the FPI point to persistently high poverty levels and weak education and health systems that are holding the economy back. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

GAMBIA Lonely at the top Ebola and poor rains have sent the economy into a tailspin

resident Yahya Jammeh’s attempts to hold onto the presidency indefinitely are causing regular bouts of instability. The latest was a failed coup attempt organised by dissidents in the US in December 2014. Whatfollowedwas another series of government reshuffles to ensure that officials do not get too comfortable in their positions. Meanwhile, the economy has suffered gravely from a decrease in tourism revenue due to the Ebola crisis and its dependence on rain-fed agriculture. Jammeh pulled the country out of the Commonwealth in 2013 in order to shield the government from criticism for its extremelypoorrecordonhumanrights,and it is now the target of the United Nations Human Rights Committee. The UN’s special rapporteur on torture Juan Mendez presented his report on the country in March, complaining that the government would not allow him and his team to access all of the country’s prisons. He said that international bodies want to work with the Banjul government to prevent the ill treatment of prisoners, but it is not cooperating. Donors also have little leverage with the government. After the execution by firing squad of nine death-row prisoners at Mile 2 Prison in September 2012, the European Union suspended its development aid to the country. ANTI-GAY LAWS CRITICISED

Elsewhere, Gambia faces stiff international condemnation for its criminalisation of homosexual acts. Jammeh regularly rants about the threat that homosexuality presents, and most recently the government arrested three meninDecemberwhofacelifesentences. President Jammeh typically gets rid of potential rivals before they can build up

Now, Senegal’s President Macky Sall is promising large investments to develop Casamance, including a $500m railroad to link it to Dakar. Jammeh says he will support peace in Casamance if Senegal deports Gambian dissidents in Senegal. Efforts to diversify Gambia’s economy have not made much progress. The government reported in February that gross domestic product shrank by 1.6% in 2014 due to weak returns from the tourism and agriculture sectors. Gambia has not had any Ebola cases, but the threat of the virus kept many tourists away from West Africa.

SENEGAL

GAMBIA BANJUL SENEGAL 50 km

Population: 1.8 million Population growth: 3.2% ■ GDP per capita: $476 ■ Life expectancy: 58.8 ■ Adult literacy: 55.55% ■ Inflation: 5.29% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 172 ■ Foreign direct investment: $25m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -10.65% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 100% ■ Key export: Wood ■ Last change of leader: 1994 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

5.3 ■

6.3

7.4

7.0

1.0

GDP ($bn)

0.9

2012

2013*

2014*

IMF DISCUSSIONS

*Estimation Oct. 2014

Jammeh’s iron grip on the country makes him fear coups and rivals

Atlantic Ocean

2015*

their own base in the ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction. The next presidential elections are planned for 2016 and as of now Jammeh does not face any substantial challengers from inside or outside of the party. Gambiaisakeyplayerintheindependence struggle of the rebels in Senegal’s Casamance region. The Senegalese government and Mouvement des Forces Démocratiques de Casamance fighters signed a ceasefire in 2014 but have yet to agree a final peace deal to the threedecade-old conflict. The Senegalese governmenthasaccusedGambia,whichborders Casamance, of fomenting instability.

The government was in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early 2015 about gaining access to the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) in order to help the government cope with the downturn. Tourism is a key source of foreign currency, and the government predicts that annual revenue from the sector could be down by as much as 60%. Agriculture is another pillar of the economy, and the central bank reported in February that annual production was down by 22% in 2014 due to low levels of rainfall. The IMF has been critical of the government’s management of the economic crisis, saying that increased government borrowing has led to the reduction of lending to the private sector. If progress is made on the RCF, the government and IMF could work together on a more stringent staff-monitored programme to introduce reforms to cash-hungry state-owned enterprises like the one in the water and electricity sector. The lack of reliable electricity supplies is a major obstacle to economic growth. Power and water cuts are regular occurrences. The World Bank is developing projects to improve generation capacity and the transmission network. The network generates only about half of its 89MW capacity due to a lack of investment and maintenance. Dam projects in Guinea and Senegal could help to increase provisioning in the years to come. ●

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

GHANA No power to the people

Kumasi

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Takoradi

150 km

Population: 25.9 million ■ Population growth: 2.1% ■ GDP per capita: $1,353 ■ Life expectancy: 61.1 ■ Adult literacy: 76.57% ■ Inflation: 15.73% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 138 ■ Foreign direct investment: $3,226m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -9.93% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 108% ■ Key export: Gold ■ Last change of leader: 2012 ■ GDP growth (%) ■

■

7.1

GDP ($bn)

41.7 2012

47.8 2013*

4.5

4.7

35.5

32.6

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

8.8

build a 1,200MW thermal power plant in Ghana to be completed in five years. Despite the inauspicious timing, Ghana’s oil sector is set to strengthen. The drop in oil prices since late 2014 has driven the government to dip into its oil stabilisation fund in order to reduce the national budget deficit. Meanwhile, the developers of the Jubilee field delivered first gas to the Atuabo processing plant in November 2014 after a long series of delays. The plant supplies to thermal power stations, thus boosting power generation and reducing reliance on unreliable gas imports from Nigeria. Tullow and its partners will begin producing at the Tweneboa, Enyenra

POWER CRISIS

Power cuts are now a regular occurrence in Accra and throughout Ghana. Early this year, the government said that generation capacity was about 600MW less than the peak demand of 2,109MW. The government is unlikely to be able to come up with short-term and costeffective solutions. In the longer term, US-based conglomerate General Electric announced in January that it would N ° 70

TROUBLED INDUSTRIES

TOGO

GHANA

he most heated debates in 2015 are about Ghana’s ailing economy. If President John DramaniMahamaandthegoverning National Democratic Congress (NDC) are unable to turn the country’s prospects around, the opposition New PatrioticParty(NPP)willbestrengthened ahead of the 2016 presidential elections. Mahama has promised to end the country’s electricity crisis before the end of next year. In the meantime, the NPP is launching renewed attacks and, in late February, organised protests to criticise government inactivity. The government is stuck between a desire to please supporters and taking steps to improve the troubled economy. The cedi depreciated rapidly in 2014, economic growth weakened, inflation rose and so did interest rates and the government’s budget deficit. In April the International Monetary Fund approved a three-year $940m loan package for the government that comes with strict reforms that the government must follow. Even though the public sector wage bill has ballooned in recent years, the government has been promising a 13% pay rise for civil servants. The government is also set to conduct an audit to remove ‘ghost workers’, or fictional employees, from the payroll to cut costs.

•

Gulf of Guinea

Tamale

The IMF is working with Accra on a bailout package to redress the economy

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

ACCRA

and Ntomme project in 2016, and it will reach production levels of 80,000 barrels per day at its peak. Also in November, the government approved Italian oil company Eni’s development plans for the Cape Three Points block, which should begin producing oil and gas in 2017. Ghana exported about 105,000 barrels per day in 2014.

BURKINA FASO

The 2016 election will be shaped by the government’s ability to end power cuts

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M AY 2 015

The gold and cocoa sectors face their own problems, too. Analysts predicted that due to unfavourable weather the 2014/2015 cocoa harvest would not meet the government’s target of 850,000tn, compared with 930,000tn in the previous season. Facing unstable electricity provision and lower gold prices, miners are reconsidering their operations in Ghana. In June, AngloGold Ashanti announced the suspension of some of its operations. It is now looking for a joint-venture partner for its Obuasi mine. On the political front, the 2016 presidential race will be a repeat of the 2012 campaign, with the NDC’s Mahama facing off against the NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo. In late 2014 the NPP again chose Akufo-Addo, who lost the 2008 and 2012 elections, to continue as the party’s flag bearer. He has been hammering away at the government, saying that corruption and waste are sapping the economy’s strength. For his part, President Mahama used his February state of the nation address to parliament to outline his proposals for how Ghana should surmount the challenges it faces. His 2014-2020 development strategy is focused on four domains: expanding education, health and social protection programmes; building a diversified and export-orientated economy; constructing infrastructure; and ensuring good governance. His list of priorities includes initiatives like the creation of an export-import bank in order to encourage local producers to be active in international markets and the rehabilitation of the country’s aluminium industry to create jobs. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

GUINEA Condé’s challenges Ebola and the reluctance of mining investors have weakened the economy

GUINEA BISSAU

LIST OF DEMANDS

Three former prime ministers – Cellou Dalein Diallo, Sidya Touré and Lansana Kouyaté – have been leading an opposition bloc that seeks to hold the government to account. In March, they banded together and called their supporters out in the streets because President Condé reneged on a promise to hold local elections in 2014. The opposition has a long list of demands, which includes the holding of local elections before the presidential vote, the reorganisation of the Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante and the creation of the Cour Constitutionnelle, which is supposed to hear electoral dispute cases. Earlier in March,

estimated at 1.2 million people in March of this year, so the government will need more resources. The International Monetary Fund expects gross domestic product growth to remain low in 2015. The economy is likely to enter a recession before rebounding in 2016. The Ebola crisis has delayed investments in electricity generation and other infrastructure, which are badly needed to improve the economy’s medium-term prospects.

MALI

GUINEA

The opposition promises mass protests over electoral disputes uinea has been the West African government that has been the slowest to respond to the Ebola crisis, but President Alpha Condé still argues that he will be able to respect the electoral calendar and organise presidential polls on 11 October 2015 and local elections in March 2016. The relationship between President Condé’s ruling party and members of the opposition is tense due to conflicts over the management of the elections. A downturn in commodity prices has hurt the mining sector’s prospects, and several major projects now face extended delays. In late March, the World Health Organisation reported that of West Africa’s 79 new Ebola cases during the previous week, 45 were in Guinea. While other governments focused on contact tracing to fight the disease, most of the new cases in Guinea were from unknown sources. With improvements in Liberia and Sierra Leone earlier in the year, donors began to direct more resources to Guinea.

SENEGAL

Kankan

CONAKRY SIERRA LEONE

Atlantic Ocean

LIBERIA

CÔTE D'IVOIRE 200 km

Population: 11.7 million Population growth: 2.5% ■ GDP per capita: $593 ■ Life expectancy: 56.1 ■ Adult literacy: 30.41% ■ Inflation: 10.07% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 179 ■ Foreign direct investment: $25m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -17.11% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 63% ■ Key export: Gold ■ Last change of leader: 2010 ■ GDP growth (%) ■

LICENSING, LITIGATION

■

A downturn in commodity prices, infrastructure hurdles and legal battles over mining rights have put paid to mines minister Kerfalla Yansané’s hopes that the country could attract $50bn in investment in the next decade. The Guinean government announced at the February Mining Indaba in South Africa that it is in the market for a new investor for the two Simandou iron ore licences that it revoked from Israeli magnate Beny Steinmetz in 2014. Several international court cases and arbitration proceedings related to the withdrawal of the permits are now underway. The government has been pushing Anglo-Australian company Rio Tinto to develop its Simandou mines and develop infrastructure that would revolutionise the country’s mining and export prospects. The mining and infrastructure projects – which include a new port and a transnational railroad – have an estimated cost of $20bn. With low iron ore prices, however, Rio Tinto is in no rush to spend its capital. Its executives still hope that the government will reverse its position and allow the company to export its ore through Liberia, which would be much less expensive. Other Guinea-based miners are facing financial difficulties. Deposits on the West African iron ore frontier are expensive to develop, and several companies holding the rights to invest in projects have been unable to do so. Bellzone ran out of money in early 2015, and its partner China Sonangol has bailed it out, at least temporarily. ●

4.1

3.8 ■

2.3

2.4

GDP ($bn)

5.6

6.2

6.8

7.5

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

opposition politicians walked out of parliament and withdrew their support for the electoral commission. Despite Condé’s troubles with oppositionists, the benefits of incumbency could propel him to a second term in the presidency. Ebola has weakened West Africa’s economy. Initial estimates said that Ebola’s economic impact could be catastrophic. However, a World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation study found that Guinea’s national agricultural product dropped by just 3% in 2014. Nonetheless, the population that was food insecure was

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

GUINEA-BISSAU Donors disappoint Bissau’s partners have not come up with the money the government had hoped for

The government and its partners predict that the economy will continue to grow as the administration invests donor money in education, governance programmes and infrastructure. Production of cashews, the country’s main export, declined steeply during the political crisis, and smuggling is high due to expensive government levies. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that it will take a long time for the government to recover the institutional capacity that it lost during the 2012-2014 political crisis. The World Bank has also been paying the salaries for teachers and healthcare workers.

SENEGAL

Reform of the military is one of the president’s greatest challenges

GUINEA-BISSAU BISSAU

ince former finance minister José Mário Vaz won in the second round of the presidential polls in May 2014, GuineaBissau has been on track to deliver more stability and economic growth. Much of the government’s plans for the future depend on funds from its donor partners, which pledged about $1.1bn for a slate of programmes over the next decade at a Brussels conference on 25 March. That is well below the $1.8bn that President Vaz had sought, so his plans to reform the military and support the agriculture, mining, tourism and fishing sectors will have to be scaled back. The military, which launched its last of many coups in 2012 and provoked a political conflict, remains a threat to the country’s stability. The government has outlined its security sector reform programme, which includes voluntary retirement packages to shrink the army’s size. Analysts at the International Crisis Group think tank argue that the army will still be too large once the reform is completed. Under previous regimes, armed forces were involved in drug trafficking and other illegal activities. Vaz has sacked some top military leaders to improve management of the security forces.

GUINEA Atlantic Ocean

Population: 1.7 million Population growth: 2.4% ■ GDP per capita: $598 ■ Life expectancy: 54.3 ■ Adult literacy: 59.91% ■ Inflation: -1.27% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 177 ■ Foreign direct investment: $15m ■ Current account as % of GDP: 1.6% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 74% ■ Key export: Cashew nuts ■ Last change of leader: 2014 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

■

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2.6

4.0

GDP ($bn)

1.0

2012*

2013*

2014*

1.1 2015*

further party schisms. However, in order to widen political dialogue, Vaz has included members of the opposition in his government. The Economic Community of West African States has played an influential role in overseeing Guinea-Bissau’s transition back to peaceful elections. How long its troops and officials will stay in the country is unknown, but some analysts are calling for the organisation’s military mission to remain until 2019. In February of this year, the United Nations Security Council authorised the continuation of the Integrated Peace-Building Office’s operations for another year.

Another challenge for the government is the rivalry between President Vaz and prime minister Domingos Simões Pereira. With Pereira as party leader, the two men represent different groups within the ruling Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC). Parliamentarians are discussing constitutional reforms that could alter the bicephalous nature of the executive branch by weakening the role of the prime minister, which could cause •

0.3

FAILED PROGRAMME

*Estimation Oct. 2014

-2.2

PARTY SCHISMS

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

50 km

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Poverty and food security have worsened over the past few years, with an estimated 70% of the population living on less than $2perday.Cashewnutpriceshavegradually strengthened since 2012, but traders do not expect any major price moves for Guinea-Bissau’s cashews in 2015. The government intends to reform its management of the cashew sector in light of the failures of the Fundo Nacional para a Promoção Industrial (FUNPI) programme. In a period of high prices, the government founded FUNPI to introduce an extra levy on cashew exports and to finance the industrialisation of the sector. FUNPI has led to increased poverty and more smuggling, so Vaz’s government is now looking at other ways of supporting the sector and attracting investment. The drop in cashew export revenue in recent years has also had a negative effect on the banking sector, with non-performing loans rising from about 11% in 2013 to 26% in mid-2014. Banks may need to recapitalise in the short term. An often-delayed programme to pay civil servants through banks should also help to strengthen the financial system. Mining is another sector that could entice investors if political stability remains. The country has reserves of bauxite and phosphates, but companies have yet to undertake a full-scale programme to evaluate the country’s resources. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

LIBERIA Ebola’s destructive path The country has made progress, with no known Ebola cases in April The economy is set to shrink this year before returning to growth in 2016

n March, Liberia’s last known Ebola patient died, but the government was not quick to say that the country was out of the woods yet. Just last August, parts of Monrovia were under curfew and quarantine. The government later found success using community groups and contact tracing to beat back the virus. Neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone have made fewer advances, and the full human and economic toll of the outbreak in West Africa is still unknown. By January, Ebola had killed 3,694 people in Liberia, and the government estimated that the number of people facing food insecurity could rise to 750,000 in March of this year. The Ebola virus showed the weakness of the government’s and the international community’s initial responses. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf says that her team will have a renewed focus on building local capacity. However, she says that government will ensure the accountability of spending due to several cases of money going missing during the Ebola crisis. The World Health Organisation said that it should be ready later this year to discuss whether widespread Ebola vaccination programmes would be effective. Several vaccine trials are currently underway in West Africa. DIVERSION OF RESOURCES

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the economy will shrink in 2015 and rebound in 2016. Several key commercial sectors reported poor results in 2014 and 2015, especially the iron ore and cement sectors. Lower iron ore prices have hurt government revenue. The government’s diversion of resources to fight Ebola also meant that it did not make many of its planned investments in expanding infrastructure.

GUINEA

SIERRA LEONE

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

MONROVIA Buchanan

LIBERIA Atlantic Ocean

100 km

Population: 4.3 million Population growth: 2.6% ■ GDP per capita: $495 ■ Life expectancy: 60.6 ■ Adult literacy: 47.6% ■ Inflation: 11.43% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 175 ■ Foreign direct investment: $1,061m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -36.35% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 60% ■ Key export: Iron ore ■ Last change of leader: 2006 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

8.3 ■

8.7

2.5

4.5

GDP ($bn)

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.2

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

the Ebola outbreak were out of work. Three-quarters of those surveyed said that they were concerned about having enough to eat during the previous week. Companies largely avoided making new commitments during the crisis. Sable Mining, for its part, announced in January that it will use Liberia’s railroad to export its iron ore from mines in Guinea beginning in late 2015. The government also announced in March that it will be taking a firm hand with natural resource companies and said it could cancel licences if companies do not obey the country’s transparency law by providing their tax payment records. MISMANAGED SECTOR

*Estimation Oct. 2014

The country’s civil wars between 19891996 and 1999-2003 destroyed much of the country’s productive capacity. Less than 10% of Monrovia now has access to electricity. The revamped Mount Coffee hydroelectric plant should come online in 2016, raising national production capacity to 140MW. The IMF complained in February that the government is not using its resources to provide safety nets for the most vulnerable populations. A survey conducted by the Liberian Institute of Statistics and the World Bank in February reported that about 40% of heads of household who were working before

The government is keen to attract oil companies to explore for oil and gas. It approved a new law governing the sector in December, but the government’s management of the industry has been troubled. The Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission is now mounting cases against officials from the National Oil Company of Liberia. Campaigners also say that the government has opened discussions for oil blocks with companies that have dubious track records. President Johnson Sirleaf ’s Unity Party fared poorly in the December 2014 senatorial elections. She is unpopular at home, but international leaders regularly praise her performance. Opposition leader George Weah handily beat Robert Sirleaf, Johnson Sirleaf’s son, to take a senate seat representing Montserrado County. The next round of national elections are not due until 2017. Weah put aside some of the usual politicking during the Ebola outbreak to encourage all of the branches of the government to work together in dealing with the national crisis. He has otherwise been distracted by the infighting within the Congress for Democratic Change party that led to the suspension of chairman George Solo in late 2014 over claims that he accepted money from a ruling party politician. ●

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

MALI Northern negotiations ALGERIA

The government is counting on China to finance major infrastructure projects

MALI MAURITANIA

SENEGAL

t is a year and seven months since President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK) came to power, and his government is still unable to reach a peace deal with leaders in Mali’s north or eliminate the scourge of terrorism. France and the United Nations are supporting the Bamako government and Algeria is mediating peace talks, but the Tuareg leaders of the Coordination des Mouvements de l’Azawad umbrella group said that the peace deal on offer in March addressed none of its concerns, especially about greater autonomy for the north. The government has been trying to isolate the rebels of the Mouvement National pour la Libération de l’Azawad, which is led by Bilal Ag Acherif and tends to make the most radical demands. There were regular bouts of armed conflict in the north during the early part of the year, and Islamic militants and Tuareg rebels are seeking to spread instability. Fighters went underground when faced with the presence of international peacekeeping forces last year, and they are now conducting attacks and targeting those who collaborate with the security forces. Most of the fighting was limited to the north, but a group of insurgents killed five people at a restaurant in Bamako on 7 March.

N ° 70

NIGER BURKINA FASO GHANA

BENIN

Population: 15.3 million Population growth: 3% ■ GDP per capita: $693 ■ Life expectancy: 55 ■ Adult literacy: 38.7% ■ Inflation: 1.47% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 176 ■ Foreign direct investment: $410m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -8.89% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 129% ■ Key export: Cotton ■ Last change of leader: 2013 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

■

1.7

5.9

HIGHER SUBSIDIES

4.8

GDP ($bn)

10.3

10.9

12.0

13.1

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

0.0

steppeddowntobecomepresident.Rural development minister Bocary Téréta and interiorministerAbdoulayeIdrissaMaïga are now competing for the top spot. The party could be punished for its failure to findaresolutiontotheproblemsinnorthern Mali in the delayed municipal and regional elections planned for October. The opposition is due to gain strength after parliament approved the creation of an official government position for the leader of the opposition in February. Soumaïla Cissé’s, the leader of the largest opposition party in parliament, the Union pour la République et la Démocratie, took up the post in late March.

IBKarguedthattherewastoomuchindiscipline in the previous government team and he sacked prime minister Moussa Mara in January. Former prime minister Modibo Keïta replaced Mara and promised a firmer line with ministers and a reduction in wasteful spending. Meanwhile, the governing party, the Rassemblement pour le Mali (RPM) is in the throes of a leadership contest, as the party has not had a leader since IBK •

Gao

BAMAKO Ségou

GUINEA

NEW GOVERNMENT

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

After stagnating in 2012 and 2013, the economy began growing strongly in 2014 and it is set to continue that way. In an attempt to improve relations with donors worried about corruption, the government has undertaken several audits, which revealed misspending and malfeasance in the contracting and budgeting processes. To increase stability, the economy must be diversified away from gold and cotton exports. In 2015, the government committed to spend 8% of its budget on the underdeveloped northern region of the country and 26% on the education, health and social sectors.

300 km

Talks with the rebels in northern Mali did not reach a conclusion in early 2015

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The cotton industry is one of the economy’s top performers. Production rose from 440,000tn in the 2013/2014 season to 552,000tn this season after the government provided higher subsidies and reduced the price of inputs. The government plans to invest more than $100m per year over the next three years to bring annual production to 800,000tn. The government has been doing some housecleaning in the oil and mining sectors. In July 2014, IBK’s administration cancelled more than 100 mining licences because companies had not been active on their permits. In November, it followed suit, revoking a series of oil permits due to failures to conduct exploration and pay taxes. I n f ra s t r u c t u re i s n e e d e d t o strengthen Mali’s mining sector. In October, the government announced its intention to use finance from China to rehabilitate the railroad linking Bamako to Dakar and to build a new rail link to the port of Conakry in Guinea. The negotiations could take some time because Bamako will have to come up with natural resources to back the loans for the infrastructure, which is how Beijing insists these loans be guaranteed. The projects could also be scaled back because the price tag for the projects Mali wants China to support is $11bn, or 93% of the country’s gross domestic product. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

NIGER Battling Boko Haram 300 km

Tensions are running high between the government and the opposition

ALGERIA

A major uranium project has stalled, but oil export plans are going ahead

NIGER MALI

ince the beginning of the year, Niger has been a major target of Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamist militants. With bombs exploding in Diffa, the parliament voted on 9 February to send 750 troops to join a regional force to fight the group. Ahead of Nigeria’s 28 March elections, Chadian, Nigerien and Nigerian troops launched a powerful counter-offensive against Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria. In late March, Niger’s minister of state at the presidency Mohamed Bazoum said that a weakened Boko Haram would no longer be in a position to take control of towns in Niger. Boko Haram is not the only source of instability, and Niger shares a border with Libya, which is home to fighting of greater intensity. The Niger government is arguing that more international support is needed to fight Islamist militants. It says that Boko Haram has the financial means to recruit young people across the region, and in February President Mahamadou Issoufou called for the creation of a joint African Union-United Nations force. Niamey is already home to a US drone base and a contingent of French special forces troops. POLITICAL STRAINS

Tensions are high between the governing party and the opposition. The police regularly arrest political leaders, and the government blamed its opponents for the violent anti-Charlie Hebdo – the French magazine subject to a terrorist attack – protests in January. There has been little dialogue between the government and opposition since the authorities tried and failed to implicate President Issoufou’s erstwhile ally Hama Amadou in a baby-trafficking scandal. The case collapsed this year,

of the least-developed countries in the world. The economy is largely dependent on subsistence agriculture, food security is a stubborn problem and poverty is widespread. The government’s Nigeriens Nourrissent Les Nigeriens (‘Nigeriens Feed Nigeriens’) programme, however, is beginning to boost agricultural production.

LIBYA

Agadez

NIAMEY

Zinder

BURKINA FASO

CHAD

NIGERIA

DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

BENIN

Population: 17.8 million Population growth: 3.9% ■ GDP per capita: $484 ■ Life expectancy: 58.4 ■ Adult literacy: 19.13% ■ Inflation: -1.08% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 187 ■ Foreign direct investment: $631m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -24.71% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 39% ■ Key export: Uranium ■ Last change of leader: 2011 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

11.1 ■

4.1

6.3

4.9

GDP ($bn)

6.7

7.4

8.3

9.0

2012

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

but in the meantime Amadou fled the country out of fear for his safety. With a slim majority, Issoufou’s Parti Nigérien pour la Démocratie et le Socialisme has sought allies in the opposing benches in parliament and encouraged infighting in other parties. With 2016 promising a heated election season, both sides are dialling up the rhetoric. Overall economic growth is due to continue at a rate of more than 4% for the next several years. Lower uranium and oil prices are a threat to those growth projections. The government has been making many business-friendly economic reforms, but Niger remains one

One of the government’s main economic priorities is raising money for infrastructure. The Export-Import Bank of China agreed to lend Niger $1bn in 2013 to finance infrastructure, but the Niamey authorities have not selected projects yet. The government plans to issue bonds worth $455m between 2014 and 2016 to spend on agriculture, education and health. In November 2014, donors provided the funds for the construction of the Kandadji hydroelectric plant, which should add 130MW to the grid and make Niger self-sufficient in energy. Work should be completed in 2017. Construction of a 600MW coal-fired power plant in Salkadamna also began in June 2014. Niger’s uranium mining industry is experiencing some of its starkest challenges. French company Areva announced that it lost $5.2bn in 2014 due to a continued downturn in demand for nuclear energy and sacked the lion’s share of its workers at the asyet-undeveloped Imouraren mine on 31 January. The price of uranium had dropped from $135/lb a few years ago to $40/lb when Areva took the decision late last year. Areva says that it will restart work in two years, but even that is uncertain. The mine was set to double Niger’s annual uranium production to about 9,000tn. Niger’s young oil sector holds promise and the country’s connection to the Chad-Cameroon export pipeline should be complete by late 2017 or early 2018. Production reached just 18,000 barrels per day, but the International Monetary Fund expects it to rise to 50,000 by 2019. ●

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

NIGERIA Victory for Buhari NIGER

CHAD

Kano BENIN

Fighting Boko Haram and turning around the economy are two top priorities

ABUJA

NIGERIA

he 28 March elections will take former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari into the presidential palace at Aso Rock, the first time that a sitting president in Nigeria lost a democratic vote. The latter days of President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration showed that regional cooperation and more resources for the armed forces could put the Boko Haram Islamist insurgents on the back foot, and the new government is set to provide a stronger armed push. The possibility of a revival of militancy in the Niger Delta – Jonathan’s home region and home to the oil industry – and a continued period of low oil prices are the biggest threats on the economic front. Buhari took 55% of the March vote to Jonathan’s 45%. Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC) took a majority of seats in the senate and house of representatives, ensuring that he will be able to implement his legislative agenda without much opposition.

Lagos Port Harcourt

Population: 173.6 million Population growth: 2.8% ■ GDP per capita: $484 ■ Life expectancy: 52.5 ■ Adult literacy: 59.57% ■ Inflation: 8.29% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 152 ■ Foreign direct investment: $1,811m ■ Current account as % of GDP: 3.67% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 73% ■ Key export: Petroleum and crude oil ■ Last change of leader: 2010 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

N ° 70

7.0

7.3

467.1

521.8

594.3

657.2

2012

2013*

2014*

2015*

GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2014

■

PROMISES OF CHANGE

5.4

4.3

Buhari will take office on 29 May and is now crafting his future government’s strategy and selecting the members of his future cabinet. Former Ekiti State governor Kayode Fayemi, Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi and former federal capital territory minister Nasir el-Rufai are expected to occupy influential posts. Buhari served as military leader from 1984 to 1985 and developed a reputation for fighting corruption and encouraging discipline. There is much uncertainty about the fate of President Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which has been in power since the return to civilian rule in 1999. How the PDP would fare in opposition also depends on the 11 April •

CAMEROON

Gulf of Guinea

UNCERTAINTY OVER PDP’S FATE

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

with the Jonathan government’s longdelayed and unpopular Petroleum Industry Bill, which companies criticised as discouraging for investors. Buhari’s camp says that cleaning up the oil and gas industry will be one of the government’s first tasks. The incoming government will have fewer financial resources in its arsenal after Jonathan’s government reduced the country’s international reserves to $34.5bn at the end of 2014, in part defending the naira against its swift depreciation this year. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Nigeria’s oil exports in 2015 will be worth $52bn, down from $88bn in 2014.

300 km

A peaceful transition comes with great expectations from the Nigerian electorate

governorship elections in 29 states, as Nigeria’s states are the training grounds for national future leaders. The APC had gained in strength from defections from the PDP in the run-up to the elections. While Nigeria’s oil sector grabs headlines, services contribute more than 50% of gross domestic product (GDP). Oil accounts for only 13% of GDP in Africa’s largest economy. The country also has a huge infrastructure deficit and poverty levels remain high, so there are many challenges for the new government. Buhari has not announced the outline of his economic strategy. Oil executives are waiting to hear if he will continue •

M AY 2 015

The economy requires vast investments, especially in the power and transportation sectors. The National Infrastructure Investment Plan calls for spending of $30-50bn per year, well beyond the government’s capacity, and private investors are wary of Nigeria’s business climate. Buhari faces many obstacles to being able to deliver on promises of change, and his honeymoon could be short. Nigeria’s uneven development has widespread impacts across sectors. Buhari supporters expect him to do more to transform northern Nigeria because he was born in Katsina State. World Bank statistics show that poverty levels are just 16.2% in the south-west, but they are 50.2% in the north-east, home to the Boko Haram militants. The Niger Delta, home to militants that accepted a government amnesty programme, has weak public service provision and experiences vast environmental despoliation from the oil industry. Under agriculture minister Akinwumi Adesina, the government launched the Agricultural Transformation Agenda. Through boosting local production and strengthening value chains, the country reduced its food import bill by N466bn ($2.3bn) in 2014. The government’s goal, which it may miss, is for the country to be self-sufficient in rice production by the end of this year. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

SENEGAL Change comes slowly The opposition has been unable to mount an effective challenge to Sall

100 km Atlantic Ocean

The government’s development plan includes attracting investment

DAKAR Thiès

resident Macky Sall came into office in 2012 promising rapid change for the country, but many of his programmes now face delays. The government abolished the senate in 2012, but Sall has not reduced his term in office from seven to five years. Sall still faces claims that he is conducting a witch hunt by seeking to prosecute former regime officials. The year ahead will be a crucial one for the government’s economic reform programme, with officials needing to deliver on the promises found in their glossy brochures. Delaysingovernmentactionhavebeen common. With the recommendations of the Commission Nationale de Réforme des Institutions in 2013 in hand, Sall is studying how to implement decentralisation and strengthen parliament. He says that the shortening of the president’s mandate and other reforms will be subject to a referendum in 2016. Peace talks have been on the agenda since the Mouvement des Forces Démocratiques de Casamance rebels declared a unilateralceasefireinApril2014.Thesides have yet to agree on the legal status that the region should have, the major point of contention in the talks. President Sall was in the separatist region in February to promote tourism and transport links. BIZARRE ATTACK

The former governing party, the Parti Démocratique Sénégalais has been rudderlesssince formerPresidentAbdoulaye Wade lost the election to Sall in 2012. WadesupportedhissonKarimtobecome his successor, but Karim was ineligible. Senegal’s courts condemned him to six years in prison for corruption in March. Wade, 88, launched a bizarre attack on Sall in February, saying that his “relat-

the PSE. Most of Senegal’s exports are of low value-added goods, so processing its livestock and animal products could be a way to develop capacity along the value chain and provide more jobs. The PSE is also focused on inclusive growth because poverty levels have been stagnant. The segment of the population living in poverty dropped from 68% in 1995 to 48% in 2005 but stood at 47% in 2013.

MAURITANIA Saint-Louis

SENEGAL MALI

GAMBIA

GUINEA-BISSAU

GUINEA

Population: 14.1 million ■ Population growth: 2.9% ■ GDP per capita: $1,092 ■ Life expectancy: 63.5 ■ Adult literacy: 57.67% ■ Inflation: -0.53% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 163 ■ Foreign direct investment: $298m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -9.83% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 93% ■ Key export: Petroleum ■ Last change of leader: 2012 ■ GDP growth (%)

NEW POWER PLANTS

■

3.4 ■

4.5

4.6

3.5

GDP ($bn)

14.0

14.8

15.9

16.9

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

ives ate babies” and showing the lack of seriousness in his criticism. In late 2014, however, he had denounced nepotism and corruption in government. The government wants Senegal to be a hub for business, and its roadmap to becoming one of the region’s emerging economies is the Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE). Senegal rose 10 places in the World Bank’s 2015 Doing Business ranking thanks to its economic reforms, but it was still ranked in 161st place. The International Monetary Fund estimates that economic growth could rise to 7% per year in the medium term due to a rise in foreign investment and exports under

For the most part, the recurring power cuts of 2011 are a distant memory. Stateowned electricity company Senelec has improved its financial management and rehabilitated some of its infrastructure. Electricity demand is rising by 10% per year, and the private sector is showing the most promise to expand Senegal’s generation capacity beyond its current level of 600MW. India’s Jindal Steel & Power announced in February that it will build a 350MW coal-fired power plant north of Dakar at a cost of $900m. The coal-fired plant that Senelec is building at Sendou was due to begin production in 2012 but is now only expected to do so before the end of this year. Competition in Senegal’s construction materials sector is heating up. Nigeria’s Dangote Cement inaugurated its Senegalese cement plant in December 2014. Its French rival Vicat says that it will file a complaint because the government allowed the company to skirt environmental and other protections. Senegal’s oil acreage is set to attract more attention after Cairn Energy announced a new discovery in both October and November 2014. Cairn estimates that the Sangomar Deep block holds 150m barrels of recoverable reserves, but the government does not expect a first barrel to be produced before 2019 or 2020. In addition to getting more land irrigated and under cultivation, the country is set to boost annual production from phosphate deposits at Matam, in northern Senegal, to 500,000tn in 2015 and to 1.5m tonnes in 2016. ●

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

SIERRA LEONE Crisis with a long tail The government launched a big push to eliminate Ebola by April Ebola and the drop in iron ore prices enfeeble the economy in 2015

Makeni

SIERRA LEONE FREETOWN

he Sierra Leonean government hopes that the late March three-day lockdown in Freetown will finally break the back of the Ebola outbreak. While there was progress in fighting the disease, the political situation degraded rapidly in March due to a conflict between President Ernest Bai Koroma and vice-president Samuel Sam-Sumana. Ebola and a downturn in the iron sector have devastated the economy since late 2014, with growth projections for 2015 at -12.8%. The Ebola crisis also incapacitated Sierra Leone’s health infrastructure, with a 70% reduction in admissions for other health problems according to survey data. The country had about 500 new Ebola cases per week last year and the number was down to 33 per week in late March. The government reverted to its policy of forcing people to stay at home in order to try to meet the target of zero new infections in April. By March, Ebola had killed an estimated 3,600 people in Sierra Leone. A report from the auditor general in February showed that bad governance was a contributing factor to the outbreak’s spread, as the government was unable to account for about one-third of a tranche of funds destined to be used to fight the disease.

Kenema Atlantic Ocean

N ° 70

100 km

Population: 6.1 million Population growth: 1.9% ■ GDP per capita: $868 ■ Life expectancy: 45.6 ■ Adult literacy: 42.1% ■ Inflation: 8.81% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 183 ■ Foreign direct investment: $579m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -10.94% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 44% ■ Key export: Iron ore ■ Last change of leader: 2007 ■ GDP growth (%) ■

8.0

3.8

4.9

5.4

6.1

2012

2013*

2014*

2015*

GDP ($bn)

*Estimation Oct. 2014

■

EBOLA’S HIDDEN COSTS

9.9

20.1

15.2

Koroma’s All People’s Congress also expelled him from the party on 6 March. Sam-Sumana and several opposition parties argued that Koroma did not have the constitutional authority to remove him from his position. The opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party called for a campaign of protests and civil disobedience beginning on 30 March. United Nations special representative for West Africa Mohamed Ibn Chambas is mediating the dispute now. Koroma chose former diplomat Victor Foh as SamSumana’s replacement, but the country’s judiciary has not had its say in the matter. Analysts say that the conflict relates

A political crisis, however, arrived at a most inauspicious time. Koroma sacked Sam-Sumana, saying he had founded his own political party and was unable to perform his duties after requesting asylum at the US embassy in March. Sam-Sumana, who started out the month in self-imposed quarantine after one of his bodyguards died of Ebola, was seeking refuge because soldiers were surrounding his residence. •

LIBERIA

■

PARTY EXPULSION

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

to the competition to replace Koroma in 2017 now that he seems resigned to step down at the end of his second term. The 50% drop in price for iron ore in 2014 and the impact of the Ebola crisis have hampered the economy. Two leading iron ore miners, London Mining and African Minerals, experienced extreme financial difficulties last year. London Mining sold its mine to the Timis Corporation and African Minerals suspended its operations, leading to a steep drop in government revenue. African Minerals lost control of its flagship mine at Tonkolili to its partner Shandong Iron and Steel in March after it was unable to repay its loans.

GUINEA

•

M AY 2 015

The World Food Programme says that Ebola’s impact on agriculture has been severe. It expected that the number of people facing food insecurity in Sierra Leone would double to 750,000 people this year. Ebola will have a continued effect on agricultural production because farmers have faced a labour shortage due to a fear of the disease’s spread. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that inflation could rise to 15% in 2015 on the back of higher prices for agricultural produce and other goods. The economic optimism that the government expressed in the midst of the crisis now seems misplaced. In October 2014, energy minister Henry Macauley touted developments in the electricity sector. He said that production would rise from 100MW to 1,000MW within three years, but investors have stayed away from the country since last year. The government has gone ahead with reforms in the sector and broke the National Power Authority into two new companies in January to streamline generation and transmission. Donors are supporting the government’s spending programmes. In March, the IMF delivered a $102m package of debt relief, grants and loans. Overall, donors expect to provide about $230m to help the government meet the financing gap in the 2015 national budget. ●

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

TOGO Opposition cries foul ahead of polls Gnassingbé was assured of victory in the 25 April polls

BENIN

Phosphates dominate the mining sector and new projects will be announced

acing four challengers, President Faure Gnassingbé was set to win the presidential elections planned for 25 April, giving him a third term in office. The opposition, which supported several candidates in the single-round vote, had called on Gnassingbé and his party to loosen their tight grip on Togo’s political space and to level the playing field. The climate ahead of the elections was not peaceful as protestors and the security forces faced off during strikes of public sector workers in the fields of heath and education. Ahead of the vote, the government rebuffed the opposition’s calls to introduce a two-round presidential vote or to ensure the independence of the Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante. President Gnassingbé had announced in January that he would create a commission to propose reforms to strengthen democracy in the country. The Comité d’Action pour le Renouveau fell out with other opposition parties and criticised Togo’s international partners for not forcing the government to implement necessary reforms ahead of the vote. CLAIMS OF FRAUD

With a divided opposition, Jean-Pierre Fabre, the leader of the Alliance Nationale pour le Changement, was unlikely to be able to unseat the incumbent. Fabre received about one-third of the vote in the 2010 presidential polls. In March, Fabre filed a suit that claims that the biometric voter enrolment process undertaken with the help of Belgian company Zetes was fraudulent. He said 30% of those enrolled were fake voters. Gnassingbé headed to the polls under the banner of his own party, the Union

product growth and investment. The finance ministry held seminars in March in order to canvas for ideas to discuss the role of government spending and different sectoral strategies to contribute to this level of growth. Agriculture, construction and mining are the main sectors contributing to Togo’s recent growth. International investors are interested in the phosphates located at Kpémé, in southeastern Togo, but the government has been slow to choose from the offers of three competitors. It estimates that the project will cost $2bn.

Sokodé Lake Volta

TOGO

NIGERIA

GHANA LOMÉ 200 km

Gulf of Guinea

Population: 6.8 million Population growth: 2.6% ■ GDP per capita: $691 ■ Life expectancy: 56.5 ■ Adult literacy: 66.55% ■ Inflation: 1.5% ■ Human development index (out of 187 countries): 166 ■ Foreign direct investment: $84m ■ Current account as % of GDP: -8.98% ■ Mobile phone penetration: 63% ■ Key export: Gold ■ Last change of leader: 2005 ■ GDP growth (%) ■ ■

5.7

5.9 5.1 ■

BUILDING BLOCKS

5.6

GDP ($bn)

3.9

4.3

4.8

5.3

2012

2013*

2014*

2015*

*Estimation Oct. 2014

pour la République (UNIR), which he founded in 2012, for the first time. Transportation and construction projects are set to boost Togo’s economic growth for another year, and the country’s economic performance was an important element in Gnassingbé’s campaigning. Ahead of the vote there was dissension and talk in UNIR that he would face a challenge in the party’s primary, but he ended up running unopposed. The government’s ambitious goal is to make Togo an emerging economy by 2030. That would require doubling the country’s annual gross domestic

The construction sector received a boost in March with the opening of ScanTogo’s clinker plant at Sika-Condji. German company Heidelberg Cement and its partners are investing $300m in projects that are set to boost cement production by 200,000tn per year. Togo’s coverage in electricity is weak and new industrial projects are contributing to higher demand. To increase power generation, the government is focusing on the development of a new dam at Adjarralla. The Togolese government is also in talks with its Ghanaian counterpart about plans for the construction of a hydroelectric power plant on the Oti River. The government is also considering the construction of a thermal power plant that could be built within three to four years’ time, says the energy ministry. According to government statistics, only about 15% of rural areas have access to electricity. The government has also delayed the privatisation of its shares in several banks. More international banks have been setting up operations in Lomé in the meantime, attracted in part by the role the country could play as a regional hub for its landlocked neighbours. In December 2014, France’s Société Générale announced that it had received a banking licence and Burkina Faso’s Coris Bank opened its first office there in February of this year. ●

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ECOWAS AT 40 | OUTLOOK

THE ECOWAS TOP 40 BANKS West African banks have seen a surge in loan growth, and nearly half of ECOWAS’s largest 40 lenders are based in Nigeria. We rank the ECOWAS top banks by total assets. Total assets

Country

Net interest income

Loans

Deposits

First Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria

23 806 656

1 415 207

10 880 150

18 013 848

Ecobank Transnational Inc.

Togo

22 532 453

2 003 456

11 421 605

16 489 904

Zenith International Bank

Nigeria

19 330 268

1 163 967

7 695 833

14 002 043

Zenith Bank Nigeria

Nigeria

17 703 962

1 078 593

6 928 338

12 791 151

United Bank for Africa Group

Nigeria

16 250 120

942 980

5 766 363

13 291 269

Guaranty Trust Bank

Nigeria

12 932 505

1 183 237

8 779 086

8 872 617

Access Bank Group

Nigeria

11 288 116

276 728

4 986 110

8 188 225

Diamond Bank

Nigeria

9 340 971

643 462

4 238 383

7 417 171

Ecobank Nigeria

Nigeria

9 114 359

1 107 531

3 918 039

7 000 945

Skye Bank

Nigeria

6 867 311

379 443

3 381 627

5 063 449 4 958 868

Fidelity Bank

Nigeria

6 649 485

189 494

2 620 367

Groupe Bank of Africa

Mali

6 356 010

423 988

3 358 357

4 571 445

First City Monument Bank

Nigeria

6 200 923

345 222

2 770 778

4 398 567

Union Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria

6 166 949

353 139

1 411 683

2 968 642

Stanbic IBTC Bank

Nigeria

4 692 733

227 630

2 361 151

2 878 434

Sterling Bank

Nigeria

4 352 953

220 248

1 978 724

3 508 643

Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria

Nigeria

3 394 381

277 797

2 327 918

2 815 634

Atlantic Business International

Côte d'Ivoire

3 391 366

182 148

1 933 785

2 001 866

Unity Bank

Nigeria

2 482 320

185 380

1 200 662

1 865 114

Ecobank Ghana

Ghana

2 171 660

295 668

983 910

1 501 977

Citibank Nigeria – Nigeria International Bank

Nigeria

2 092 977

95 450

501 463

1 702 942

Wema Bank

Nigeria

2 034 866

77 025

606 586

1 339 068

Oragroup SA

Togo

1 852 852

126 592

1 119 630

1 164 003

Soc. Gén. de Banques en Côte d’Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

1 739 518

122 041

857 719

1 465 109

CBAO Groupe Attijariwafa Bank

Senegal

1 431 251

115 597

1 275 373

1 051 192

Ghana Commercial Bank

Ghana

1 418 158

243 220

401 768

109 984

Ecobank Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

1 372 877

100 141

916 184

934 446

Bank of Africa – Bénin

Benin

1 303 340

60 595

449 822

904 287

Société Générale de Banques au Sénégal

Senegal

1 295 315

99 107

825 732

952 905

Banque Atlantique – Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

1 275 044

61 393

566 183

851 064

Standard Chartered Bank Ghana

Ghana

1 249 731

117 297

472 668

744 023

Ecobank Burkina

Burkina Faso

1 109 229

63 951

681 513

795 390

Diamond Bank Benin

Benin

1 051 485

47 671

479 177

721 447

BIAO Côte d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire

1 036 189

72 465

641 395

852 212

Barclays Bank of Ghana*

Ghana

1 035 209

107 252

371 355

761 799

Ecobank Senegal

Senegal

1 033 823

66 422

570 508

709 949

Société Ivoirienne de Banque

Côte d'Ivoire

1 000 478

69 566

620 248

760 383

Ecobank Benin

Benin

941 483

62 621

579 580

675 231

Coris Bank International

Burkina Faso

909 784

65 639

545 116

567 250

Banque de Développement du Mali

Mali

902 611

53 080

372 350

657 897

2013 RESULTS IN THOUSANDS OF US DOLLARS; *IN ITALICS 2012 RESULTS; NA: NOT AVAILABLE

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SOURCE: THE AFRICA REPORT RESEARCH

Rank Company

OUTLOOK | ECOWAS AT 40

THE ECOWAS TOP 40 COMPANIES While the Ebola outbreak has put pressure on the Guinean, Liberian and Sierra Leonean economies, the region’s economic growth remains strong. Here are the top firms. Rank Company

Turnover (2013)

Net profits

Sector

Country

1 MTN Nigeria

ICT/Telecoms

Nigeria

4 584 737

2 Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage*

Refining

Côte d'Ivoire

3 233 200

304

3 Oando

Petroleum Services

Nigeria

2 766 722

8 591

4 Dangote Cement

Construction

Nigeria

2 375 130

1 498 755

5 Flour Mills of Nigeria

Agribusiness

Nigeria

2 042 678

33 012

6 Nigerian Breweries

Food and drink

Nigeria

1 651 973

264 944

7 Sonatel

ICT/Telecoms

Senegal

1 484 011

381 166

8 Total Nigeria

Petroleum Services

Nigeria

1 464 702

32 804

9 Airtel Nigeria

ICT/Telecoms

Nigeria

1 388 830

129 499

10 Julius Berger Nigeria

Construction

Nigeria

1 308 334

48 298

11 Gold Fields Ghana*

Mining

Ghana

1 142 365

12 Société Africaine de Raffinage

Refining

Senegal

1 119 943

4 026

13 Novignis

Financial services

Nigeria

1 097 093

19 717

Burkina Faso

1 062 014

19 807

15 Groupe SIFCA

14 Société Nationale Burkinabé d’Hydrocarbures Petroleum Services Agribusiness

Côte d'Ivoire

1 027 040

47 934

16 Tullow Ghana*

Petroleum

Ghana

995 600

17 Conoil

Petroleum Services

Nigeria

981 153

18 881

18 Volta River Authority*

Utilities

Ghana

916 703

-47 145

19 Seplat Petroleum Development Co.

Petroleum

Nigeria

880 227

550 268

20 Newmont Ghana Gold*

Mining

Ghana

861 785

21 Nestlé Nigeria

Agribusiness

Nigeria

818 467

136 888

22 Tarkwa Mines

Mining

Ghana

816 264

-22 905

23 Forte Oil

Petroleum

Nigeria

787 371

30 111

24 MTN Ghana

ICT/Telecoms

Ghana

787 209

25 Compagnie Ivoirienne d’Électricité

Utilities

Côte d'Ivoire

748 961

16 652

26 Total Sénégal

Petroleum Services

Senegal

684 063

4 324

27 Guinness Nigeria

Food and drink

Nigeria

671 593

58 877

28 African Reinsurance Corp.

Insurance

Nigeria

670 458

84 801

29 Orange Côte d’Ivoire

ICT/Telecoms

Côte d'Ivoire

652 797

30 Société Nigérienne de Produits Pétroliers*

Petroleum Services

Niger

635 357

12 447

31 Dangote Sugar Refinery

Agribusiness

Nigeria

634 395

66 702

32 Lafarge Cement WAPCO

Construction

Nigeria

607 610

173 518

33 Eterna Oil & Gas

Chemicals

Nigeria

604 526

4 325

34 Sonatel Mobiles

ICT/Telecoms

Senegal

589 563

42 847

35 Société Nationale d'Électricité du Senegal

Utilities

Senegal

586 406

-445

36 Total Petroleum Ghana

Petroleum Services

Ghana

559 616

14 755

37 Total Côte d’Ivoire

Petroleum Services

Côte d'Ivoire

552 583

15 017

38 MRS Oil

Petroleum Services

Nigeria

539 886

3 902

39 Société Nationale d’Opérations Pétrolières

Petroleum

Côte d'Ivoire

534 660

57 964

40 ADM Cocoa Sifca

Agribusiness

Côte d'Ivoire

530 895

3 572

2013 RESULTS IN THOUSANDS OF US DOLLARS; *IN ITALICS 2012 RESULTS; NA: NOT AVAILABLE

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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SOURCE: THE AFRICA REPORT RESEARCH