Tar70 nigeria

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SOUTH AFRICA “Economically, it is Apartheid without the guilt” - Chester

ETHIOPIA Ruling party banks on farmers’ vote

ECOWAS K LOO OUT 0 Promise s at 4 a w o of a new Ec DIPL

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THE HOPE FOR BUHARI

INTERNATIONAL Edition

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 7 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 50 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 8 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA

Can the man who made Africa believe in elections again face down Boko Haram and oil thieves?

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SOUTH AFRICA “Economically, it is Apartheid without the guilt” - Chester

ETHIOPIA Ruling party banks on farmers’ vote

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special

OUTLOOK supplement REPORT is a AFRICA to THE N°70

LOOK OUT 40 as at Ecow

PROMISE

NEW

WEST

ECOWAS Promise of a new West

NIGERIA The hope for Buhari

ETHIOPIA Ruling party banks on farmers’ vote

ECOWAS The promise of a new West

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TELECOMS Mobile takes on insurance market

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AfDB

Tough times for the new

boss THE HOPE FOR BUHARI

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 7 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 50 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings Tunisia 8 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 30 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 FCFA

Can the man who made Africa believe in elections again face down Boko Haram and oil thieves?

The AfricA reporT # 70 - mAy 2015

From left to right: Kordjé Bedoumra, Sufian Ahmed, Cristina Duarte and Akinwumi Adesina

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4 Editorial Hope after the Naija revolution

57 afdb Change at the top The African Development Bank will choose its new leader to replace Donald Kaberuka in May

6 lEttErs 8 thE QuEstion

Briefing 10 signposts

62 opinion Mima S. Nedelcovych

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12 intErnational 14 pEoplE 16 opinion Farai Sevenzo

64 travEl sEctor See Addis, think Dubai 71 profilE Morocco’s trade minister Moulay Hafid Elalamy

18 calEndar

72 hannibal South Africa’s parastatal panic: Eskom, South African Airways, Transnet

nigeria focus 20 2015 ElEctions Great expectations After the straightest elections comes the toughest test: measuring up

insurancE dossiEr

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24 intErviEw President-elect Muhammadu Buhari 26 tEam buhari Allies and strategists 30 profilE Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi 32 opinion Chika Unigwe

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art & life 82 africa-francE Life after #JeSuisCharlie What is the real experience of immigrants in the land of ‘liberty, equality and fraternity’?

36 ElEctions How the race was won 40 financE Banking in uncertain times 42 intErviEw Jagal’s Maher Jarmakani

86 briEfs Curator Okwui Enwezor and Rooibos beauty treatments

politics

88 travEl Abidjan à la carte

44 Ethiopia No time for change Opposition splits keep the ruling party ahead for May elections

50 analysis South Africa, Mozambique, and Sudan 52 anansi the africa report

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78 intErviEw Allianz Africa CEO Delphine Maidou 80 briEfs Epidemics, natural disasters and demand for actuaries

34 Economy The Buhari boost

48 opinion Chester Missing

74 The future is micro and mobile Companies are shaking up the industry with micro-insurance and cover-for-credit deals

89 lifEstylE Ultimate frisbee in Kampala and Behind the Scenes with Mohamed Lahna

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90 day in thE lifE Lafayette Vinton, Ebola survivor, Liberia This issue carries an insert between pages 58-59 for selected countries

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editorial

The AfricA reporT A Groupe Jeune Afrique publication

By Patrick Smith

57‑Bis, rue d’Auteuil – 75016 PAris – FrAnce tel: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAx: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

Hope after the Naija revolution

F

or far too long, the mention of Nigeria has elicited an expression somewhere between rolling eyes and pained concern.

In less than seven dramatic days, Nigeria’s people have turned all that around. Almost 30 million Nigerians defied confident forecasts of murder and mayhem to vote in what is now regarded as one of Africa’s most credible elections. It was the popular reply to Nobel Prize winner Wole Soyinka’s lament that “the Nigerian people have always approached democracy, and the elites have always turned them back.” Even the much lambasted political class belatedly rose to the occasion.

When the news broke on 31 March that President Goodluck Jonathan had telephoned to concede and congratulate Muhammadu Buhari, there was an audible intake of breath across the country. “At last, the politicians have done the right thing!” exclaimed a retired Nigerian ambassador. Those with a literary bent rephrased Malcolm’s epitaph for the Thane of Cawdor in Shakespeare’s Macbeth to the effect that “nothing became Jonathan’s presidency more than the manner of his leaving it”. In fact, history is likely to be kinder to Jonathan. His appointment of Attahiru Jega as an avowedly independent head of the electoral commission and his rapid acceptance of its unpalatable verdict allowed Nigeria a fresh start.

Strong as the country’s new hopes are, they should not obscure the incoming government’s doleful inheritance. The momentum for change could quickly falter if Nigeria has merely exchanged one dominant ruling party for another.

Grand corruption and insecurity are threats that also represent

Cha i r m a n a nd f o und e r Béchir Ben yAhMed P ub l i s he r dAnielle Ben yAhMed publisher@theafricareport.com e x e Cut i ve P ub l i s he r JérôMe MillAn

revolutionary opportunities for change. Claims by former central bank governor Lamido Sanusi that some $20bn in oil revenue from 2012 and 2013 was not paid into the federation account are to be audited as a matter of priority.

Non-excitable industry experts reckon Nigeria loses at least $25bn of its oil revenue annually from theft, crony-capitalist deals and subsidy scams. Such deals have also deterred productive investment from the burgeoning capitalist class. If Buhari and his team live up to their pledge to tackle the vested interests responsible for this Buhari’s test gargantuan crime, not is to show only will they stabilise the economy but they he can run will ensure this year’s a democratic positive political shifts become entrenched. and multiEnding the Boko faith country Haram insurgency in at a time of the north-east, which has killed more than polarisation 12,000 people and elsewhere displaced as many as three million, is a similarly epic task, partly because of the crash in the army’s morale and the corruption of its procurement budgets. Yet there are few better qualified than former General Buhari to lead military reform.

If it succeeds, the new government – which enjoys almost equal support from Muslims and Christians – can make a bigger point: that a democratic and multi-faith country can be run fairly and inclusively at a time of horrendous religious and political polarisation elsewhere. All wildly ambitious?

But why not, for a country that has pulled itself back from the brink with such style? ●

m a r K e t i nG & d e ve l o P m e nt AlisOn KinGsley‑hAll e d i t o r i n Chi e f PAtricK sMith m a na G i nG e d i t o r nichOlAs nOrBrOOK editorial@theafricareport.com a s s i s ta nt e d i t o r chArlie hAMiltOn a s s o Ci at e e d i t o r MArshAll VAn VAlen e d i t o r i a l a s s i s ta nt OheneBA AMA nti Osei r e G i o na l e d i t o r s PArselelO KAntAi (eAst AFricA) crystAl OrdersOn (sOuthern AFricA) tOlu OGunlesi (West AFricA) s ub - e d i t o r s AlisOn culliFOrd erin cOnrOy P r o o f r e a d i nG KAthleen GrAy a rt d i r e Ct o r MArc trensOn desiGn VAlérie OliVier christOPhe chAuVin AnAÏs QuérOn P r o d uCt i o n PhiliPPe MArtin christiAn KAsOnGO r e s e a r Ch sylVie FOurnier P ho t o G r a P hy clAire VAtteBled o nl i ne Prince OFOri‑AttA sales sAndrA drOuet sOlène deFrAncQ tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com cOntAct FOr suBscriPtiOn: Webscribe ltd unit 8 the Old silk Mill Brook street, tring hertfordshire hP23 5eF united Kingdom tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 email: subs@webscribe.co.uk 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 ‑ $60 ‑ £35 tO Order Online: www.theafricareportstore.com d i f Co m internAtiOnAl AdVertisinG And cOMMunicAtiOn AGency 57‑Bis, rue d’Auteuil 75016 PAris ‑ FrAnce tel: (33) 1 44 30 19‑60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com a d ve rt i s i nG d i r e Ct o r nAthAlie Guillery With JeAnny chABOn r e G i o na l m a na G e r s FAdOuA yAQOBi liliA BenAceur elOdie BOussOnniere us r e P r e s e ntati ve AzizA AlBOu a.albou@groupeja.com

editorial@theafricareport.com the africa report

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Printer: sieP 77 ‑ FrAnce n° de cOMMissiOn PAritAire : 0715 i 86885 dépôt légal à parution / issn 1950‑4810 the AFricA rePOrt is published by GrOuPe Jeune AFriQue

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letters For all your comments, suggestions and queries, please write to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil - Paris 75016 - France. or editorial@theafricareport.com

nigeria – whose victory?

W

NIgERIA Security jousts with economic opportunity

SouTH AfRIcA Who can resuscitate the economy?

be enforced by military and economic means. Ghannouchi is therefore willing to compromise with his bitter enemies in order to keep a share of Tunisia’s political power, offering concessions and keeping a low profile. Ennahda accepted to hold minor government positions, notwithstanding the fact it is Tunisia’s second party in terms of number of votes. Just as Morocco’s PJD found a niche inside the ruling Makhzen, Ennahda is entering Tunisia’s elitist spheres of power. This is the long path to political Islam.

uAE-AfRIcA New markets for property and travel

ith the emergence of Muhammadu Buhari as Nigeria’s new president [‘The real security vote’, TAR69 Apr 2015], the word on the street now is victory. But it is imperative to state that the defeat of Goodluck Jonathan isn’t the victory of the electorates. Yes, Beyond Ebola the people voted for a man of their choice but the “West Africa question of who/what made that man their choice must bounce back” remains unanswered. For those who understand a bit about Nigeria’s presidential power play, one key factor that determines the outcome is [the candidate’s] relationship with Nigeria’s ‘Five Pillars’ – Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, Ibrahim Babangida, the Emir of Kano, Olusegun Obasanjo and the Oil Mafias. Unfortunately for President Jonathan, all these stood against him.

This is a victory for democracy, it is a good step for politics but it isn’t a victory for the people per se – rather a change of clothes for the ‘Five Pillars’.

Adekoya Boladale, Convener, Advocacy for Better Leadership (ABEL), Nigeria, via email N ° 6 9 • A P R I L 2 015

w w w.theaf ri car epo r t .c o m

After losing the first rounds in the Ebola war, it is time for the region to win the peace, says Liberia’s Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

INTERNATIoNAl EDITIoN

Algeria 550 DA • Angola 600 Kwanza • Austria 4.90 € • Belgium 4.90 € • Canada 6.95 CAN$ • Denmark 60 DK • Ethiopia 75 Birr • France 4.90 € • Germany 4.90 € • Ghana 7 GH¢ • Italy 4.90 € • Kenya 410 shillings • Liberia $LD 300 • Morocco 50 DH • Netherlands 4.90 € • Nigeria 600 naira Norway 60 NK • Portugal 4.90 € • Sierra Leone LE 12,000 • South Africa 35 rand (tax incl.) • Spain 4.90 € • Switzerland 9.90 FS • Tanzania 9,000 shillings • Tunisia 8 DT • Uganda 9,000 shillings • UK £ 4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA

steel is not delivering Demand for steel is very high in Africa and in Nigeria in particular [‘Steely reserve required for takeoff’, TAR68 Mar 2015]. Africa’s failure to meet the needs of the steel industry holds back its economy and is a result of successive governments neglecting this priority.

Apart from Egypt and South Africa, African nations are conspicuously missing from the 2014 World Steel Association’s report on steel production, consumption and exportation. That Nigeria does not feature among the world’s top 50 steel producers says a lot about its “21 functioning steel rolling mills”. All the

Youssef Cherif Tunisian political analyst via email

women in the workplace

world’s leading economies are also steel producers and until the steel sector is developed, African economies will continue to move at a snail’s pace.

Dr. Anthony Nkem Ede Department of Civil Engineering, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria, via email

stealth politics [Ennahda leader] Rachid Ghannouchi is getting close to Morocco’s Abdelilah Benkirane in his political strategy [‘Battle for the soul of the state’, TAR67 Feb 2015]. The Troika era taught him there was still a radical opposition to political Islam in Tunisia, which could

I read with interest your opinion piece

by Beata Kasale [‘How struggling made us strong’, TAR67 Feb 2015]. Women don’t need to prove that they can hold the top jobs – they do that the world over – but they do need more employers to support them with the flexibility to get there. Single mothers are raising the next generation of the workforce and setting a great example for them in the process. The employers who recognise that and facilitate the way for women to progress in their careers while also raising children will get the best talent. My employer’s consideration for my circumstances is crucial to me being effective at my job.

Kate Hamshar via email

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the question To respond to this month’s Question, visit www.theafricareport.com. You can also find The Africa Report on Facebook and on Twitter @theafricareport. Comments, suggestions and queries can also be sent to: The Editor, The Africa Report, 57bis Rue d’Auteuil, Paris 75016, France or editorial@theafricareport.com

In April, Nigerian security expert Prince D. Adesina called for legislation allowing Nigerians in the diaspora to vote, but some have argued that with the right to vote comes a responsibility to pay taxes.

Should the African diaspora vote if they don’t pay taxes?

Yes Kefa OtisO President, Kenya Scholars and Studies Association, US

There are four reasons why the diaspora should be allowed to vote. First, many African countries have non-negotiable constitutional clauses that guarantee their diasporans’ and dual-citizens’ right to vote.

Second, the African diaspora pays plenty of tax through direct and indirect corporate and individual taxes, public service fees, sales taxes, and import tariffs. Any move to disenfranchise the diaspora is likely to be unjust and counterproductive, if not reminiscent of many of colonial Africa’s systems of taxation without representation. Third, through remittances, the African diaspora is often the leading foreign exchange earner for many African countries, and therefore critical to a country’s ability to meet its international payment obligations, uphold the currency’s value, stabilise its domestic price regimes and maintain political stability. Fourth, in the current global economy, countries often use suffrage and dual citizenship to give their diasporans a sense of belonging. Thus, instead of debating the pros and cons of the diaspora right to vote it is more beneficial to see how African countries can use diaspora suffrage to create or strengthen their relationships with the fairly skilled, talented, informed, entrepreneurial, resourceful, and affluent African diaspora that is increasingly critical to their socioeconomic development in this global era. ●

No OumarOu Barry Editor-inchief of People TV’s Business Africa and Initiative Africa programmes

Taxation, not citizenship, should be the basis of having voting rights, and for this reason citizens living in the diaspora should not be entitled to vote or maintain a political role in their home countries. The right to vote should be reserved for resident citizens who are subject to mandatory taxes and directly impacted by their home government’s decisions. Originally from Guinea but residing in France, I can’t see myself voting in Guinea when I pay my taxes elsewhere. Sending money through remittances cannot by itself guarantee a right to vote because most remittances don’t contribute to the economy or to job creation or the setting up of businesses. Rather, it’s intended to help finance small purchases and consumable goods for family and loved ones. Furthermore, overseas citizens who have the opportunity to vote are often more critical of the government in place without having to deal with the consequences of what is going on in their home countries. It is much easier to be an opposition member when you live abroad, but, once you return, do you remain an opponent?

The jury is still out on that. Even in the case of the diaspora with dual citizenship, they must take responsibility for their choices. Residing overseas and paying taxes in my resident country, I’ll be more inclined to vote where I live. ●

your vIews:

I live in Britain but I was born in Nigeria, have Nigerian nationality, hold a Nigerian passport and spent the first 30 years of my life in Nigeria. Nigeria is actually my home and I care passionately about the country. Yet I can vote in Britain but not in Nigeria.

That is completely out of order! My Nigerian citizenship is not worth less than my British citizenship!

Anengiyefa Alagoa You must be aware that remittances to Africa are a big part of GDP. Pharis M. Moenga Remittances are subject to many indirect taxes worth trillions!

Kule Edward Voting has nothing to do with taxes.

Peter van Baarlen No! It will encourage rigging in elections.

Ajibodu Olayemi When we send money home and are denied the right to vote we are stripped of our citizenship.

Mo Nunyabidness For those compatriots not to vote is a retrogressive and deliberate move to oppress them.

Manyika H. Munyaradzi You should be a taxpayer to qualify as a voter otherwise you should vote where you pay your taxes.

Israel Makaza the africa report

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Connectivity without borders Africa’s super-fast fibre network

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country focus

Nigeria Great expect the africa report

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speciAl After steamrolling to victory in the 28 March presidential election with 54% of the vote, General Buhari is promising to bring fundamental improvements to government and security

By Billie Adwoa McTernan and Tolu Ogunlesi in Lagos, and Patrick Smith in Abuja

J

ations the africa report

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Ben Curtis/AP/siPA

As with US President Obama, Buhari will have to juxtapose the desire for change with the realities of office

ust before the elections, General Muhammadu Buhari had beensettingouthispoliciesand fieldingquestionsfromjournalists for a couple of hours when he suddenly made a dramatic pause.

Then, as if suddenly realising he was likely to be Nigeria’s next president, he continued in a solemn and softer tone: “People want change, and the interesting thing is that it’s across the country. That’s what makes the expectations frightening, because you can’t tell these young people that there is no money, […] that you can’t improve their schools.”

That sense of responsibility says a lot about Buhari’s long march to victory at the polls on 28 March. His advisers say he launched the campaign with a deep seriousness and determination to get the country out of its political and social crisis.

Although security and economic conditions remain problematic, the success of the elections means that Buhari will take over the presidency at a time of rising national morale and international interest. Initially, that offers him a honeymoon period to put together his governing team and take some tough decisions.

Two issues dominated the election debate and symbolised national concerns: the kidnapping of more than 250 schoolgirls from Chibok in April 2014 by Boko Haram insurgents, and the removal in February of last year of central bank governor Lamido Sanusi after he announced that some $20bn in oil revenue had not been paid into the federation account.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) adeptly tapped into the sentiment across a country wanting political change. From

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January of this year, topAPC officials had been assuring journalists that their candidate Buhari had a 10-20% lead over incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.

Indeed, they regaled journalists with tales of how some of Jonathan’s allies had started making discreet enquiries about their likely treatment under a Buhari government.

Within hours of Jonathan’s historic phone call on 31 March to Buhari conceding defeat, thetopofficialsof the APC turned their attention to the next deadline: Buhari’s inauguration on 29 May. It was, said APC policy director Kayode Fayemi, uncharted territory: “This is the first time we have had to manage a transition between an incumbent party and an incoming opposition.”

Fayemi, who had worked effectively as Ekiti State governor with his political opponents in the ruling People’s Democratic Party at federal level, was hopeful there would be enough goodwill to make the transition work. Others are less sanguine. A cartoon in the Abuja-based Daily Trust newspaper depicted Jonathan handing over the keys of a very battered green and white (the colours of the national flag) saloon car with a smashed windscreen to a downcast Buhari.

Coming to power at a time of sharply loweroilprices,slowingeconomicgrowth and a still rumbling insurgency in the north-east, Buhari will pick his battles carefully. Since winning the election, he has repeatedly said his two priorities are to tackle corruption and insecurity. Earlier, he told The Africa Report that he wants to double the size of graftbusting agencies such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

300 km NIGER

CHAD

BENIN

Kano ABUJA

NIGERIA Lagos CAMEROON

Port Harcourt Gulf of Guinea

NIGERIA IN NUMBERS

SourceS: World Bank 20131, african economic outlook 20142, united nationS conference on trade and development 2014 report3

PoPulation

173.6 million1

urban PoPulation (% of total)

46%1

life exPectancy at birth

52.52

infant mortality (per 1,000 births)

75.12

aid flows

$1.9 billion2

fdi, inflows (current US$)

$5.6 billion3

GdP (current US$)

$521.8 billion1

GdP Growth (annual %)

5.4%1

internet users (per 100 people)

38

mobile cellular subscriPtions (per 100 people)

731

1

EMPLOYMENT New jobs for all sectors, Q4 2014

Total: 369,485

Public institutions

4,387 Informal

Source: nigeria Bureau of StatiSticS, march 2015

227,072

military shake-up

Formal

OIL THEFT Crude oil theft and deferred production, 2003-13 (1,000 barrels of oil per day) 300 deferred production theft

250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan. 03

Jan. 04

Jan. 05

Jan. 06

Source: nigerian authoritieS; imf Staff eStimateS

138,026

Dec. 12

He is also likely to launch sweeping reforms of the military in a bid to consolidate recent gains against Boko Haram insurgents. “We still haven’t recovered from the shock that the Nigerian army could not secure 20 local governments,” he added in a tone of horrified disbelief.

Already, a group of retired generals and intelligenceprofessionalsaregatheringin Abujatoadvisetheincominggovernment.

A big challenge, according to Fayemi and his colleagues, will be translating the APC’s ambitious manifesto into practical policy. “The General is into the big picture,” said Fayemi, “we listen to the arguments, agree policy and plan implementation. He wants the systems

Nigeria’s youth hope for jobs, an end to corruption, and security in the north.

Despite the current economic crunch, the future looks bright

to work effectively and to restore the integrity of institutions.”

Some of that work will be unglamorous and technical. There is much talk of critically needed civil service reform.

Yet, given the sensitivities about regional balance, this looks to be a politically torturous project. Buhari’s advisers say that no one with a history of malfeasance will be appointed to government and that all appointees will have to declare their assets to a government lawyer on their arrival in and exit from office. To set an example, Buhari declared his assets at the start of his campaign.

Nasir El-Rufai, who won the Kaduna State governorship for the APC on 11 April, said the government would quickly define itself as determined and pragmatic: “We know the scale of the economic position we will inherit […] and the stabilisation measures we will have to take as a matter of urgency.” A former director of the government’s bureau of privatisation, El-Rufai said the restructuring or even sale of state assets would be looked at on their merits – not through an ideological prism. “The harshness of current economic conditions makes reform more, not less, likely,” he added.

Yet El-Rufai is keenly aware of the power of the national assembly to block the africa report

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nigeria | country focus special

Buhari, as well as the younger and more impatient members of the APC. Ministerial appointments will be the next test of the APC’s coherence. Its first test was last year when it picked a presidential candidate – Buhari – in a well-managed primary election contest.

Then, the prospect of winning power concentrated minds.

Goran Tomasevic/reuTers

payback time

and delay the most ambitious legislative programmes. As minister for the federal capital territory, he frequently found himself in very public disputes with both senators and members of the house of representatives.

A bill proposing thoroughgoing reform of the oil sector – the Petroleum Industry Bill – has been held up in the national assembly for over five years, due to a mixture of political obstructionism and corporate lobbying. Few expect that situation to change quickly.

Changing guard in the National Assembly, where the former opposition APCwillholdthemajorityinbothhouses, will bring jockeying for leadership positions and jobs on the key committees such as oil and gas, finance and national security. Former Kwara State governor and now senator Bukola Saraki is tipped to be Senate president. His priority will be to expedite reform of the oil and gas sector, he told The Africa Report.

Other positions in the new government, especially the choice of the cabinet, will be strongly contested, according to Bismarck Rewane, managing director of the Lagos-based Financial Derivatives Company. “Buhari has to reconcile the interests of the Fulani north, the south-western technocrats, the africa report

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Now, politicians are fixed on the spoils of power. The northern activists who produced Buhari’s core 11m votes will seek substantive positions in acknowledgement of this. Similarly, the Middle Belt states that swung significantly towards Buhari and the APC want representation at the top.

Trickiest of all is how Buhari deals with the south-west, which produced enough votes to push him comfortably ahead of his rival. Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State, is the man to watch (see page 26). Described by an APC activist as a “one-man Chicago political machine”, Tinubu is the party’s godfather and wiliest political operative.

He is said to be pushing his own candidates for the finance and oil portfolios.

“I am a talent hunter,” he told The Africa Report. “A leader is successful because you develop other leaders. Babatunde Fashola [outgoing governor of Lagos State] was my chief of staff. Five other governors I’ve mentored and worked with – their success will go to their states.”

To his critics, Tinubu’s mentoring is a means to protect his position as one of the wealthiest landlords in Lagos. He brushes off accusations that his fortune was built on ill-gotten gains: “I don’t

the [APC] party, the traditional rulers and the security apparatus.”

Under Nigeria’s complex federal system, an incoming president has huge powers of patronage. Buhari will have to make 4,000 appointments, including ambassadors, during his presidency.

Speed will be of the essence, said a diplomatic source, as Buhari picks his team: “The ideal would be to have the cabinet ministers selected and ready to run on the day that Buhari is sworn into office.”

That would allow Nigeria to capitalise on the kudos An incoming president has earned from the successhuge powers of patronage – ful election and transition. speed will be of the essence Few argue that such rapidity is likely given the have the wealth they attribute to me. bargaining that will take place between I’ve invested, so what I have is earned. the presidency and party barons. David I didn’t spend my salary when I was in Cowan, chief Africa economist at Citoffice, it went to charity.” ibank, writes in a post-election briefing: As a former state governor and a “It’s very possible that negotiations over forming the cabinet could spill over into senator, Tinubu makes no secret of his June and July.” ambition when asked if he still wants Traditionally, each of Nigeria’s 36 to be president: “Sure, I believe in myself. I wasn’t ready. The rescue mission states submits its own candidates for has to be accomplished.” Then with a ministerial office. The president then chuckle, he adds: “Let somebody put chooses the candidates and allocates out the wildfire.” specific portfolios. Such drawn-out procedures and regional balancing acts It is hard to imagine two politicians more different – in style and substance – seem certain to irritate the nationalist

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country focus special | nigeria

than Tinubu and Buhari, which has led some to predict an early rupture in the relationship. Others argue that Buhari, who has little interest in politicking, will appoint others to manage the partisan-balancing and instead concentrate on pushing through his agenda. “[Buhari] will find himself in a deep fiscal hole, in a very vulnerable position in terms of oil revenue and because of the amount of fraud and stealing,” said Rewane. “He is a welfare-oriented leader, so he has to do things for the people – health, education – but he can’t do those with an empty chequebook.” austerity measures

Despite Nigeria’s $540bn economy, finding the money to make an impact, especially on those 60 million people living in extreme poverty, will demand some tough decisions, says the economist Rewane: “The first thing is to stop the theft and the leakages, the fiscal measures will take care of that. The second is, what sacrifice? It will have to be austerity measures. Then monetary policy – will it be protective or liberal?”

Some of the arguments about economic policy – on devaluation, trade liberalisation and privatisation – are yet to be had, let alone resolved, according to a businessman who is close to the APC. “It is a big tent – in terms of policy and in terms of the regional groupings inside – but you can be certain that General Buhari will give a strong lead. He will be hands-on. If it goes through, it’s because he backed it.”

Managing a much depleted treasury and foreign reserves, Buhari’s government will struggle to deliver on the promised social programmes without radical fiscal reform. At ministerial level, this will mean far closer monitoring of allocations at federal and state level. Also likely is a bolstering and reform of the national tax authorities: outside of oil, tax in Nigeria raises just 5% of gross domestic product.

Reformers in the APC see a campaign against evasion and overgenerous tax exemptions as both good politics and a way to tackle widening inequalities in the country.

For now, Nigerians have an appetite for change. Taking on the ability of so many in the ruling class to evade tax could rank as the fiscal equivalent of defeating an incumbent and entrenched national party in a presidential election for the first time. And the odds against success could be even higher. ●

interview

Muhammadu Buhari

SuNDAy AlAMBA/AP/SIPA

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President-elect, Nigeria

Perseverance and pressure

F

ew leaders get a second in the country’s history, Buhari told chance – certainly not three The Africa Report that a group of very decades after the first – to angry junior officers had contacted him: take power in their countries “I told them Nigeria was now in a at a time of national crisis and towering different era. We have to tackle fraud expectations. So it is a tribute to and injustice, constitutionally and Muhammadu Buhari’s perseverance legally. After that, we can improve and stamina that in the early hours the morale and integrity of the army.” of 1 April he was setting out his aims as head of state of Nigeria again.

As he did more than 30 years ago, And his words – “There shall no longer Buhari is likely to lead a thoroughgoing be a ruling party […]. We shall faithfully restructuring of the senior officer corps. serve you. We shall never rule over On corruption, Buhari’s experience and the people as if they were subservient example will shape strategy. “We will to government” – chimed with the not launch witch hunts, but from day one hopes of many Nigerians. we will insist on strict adherence to the The conditions the then-Major rule of law,” he told The Africa Report.

General Buhari met when he took The country’s oil and gas industry power on 31 December 1983 as head will be a main target for the campaign. of a group of brigadiers and major As oil minister under General Olusegun generals are strikingly similar to the Obasanjo’s military regime in the circumstances today. However, those 1970s, Buhari established the stateclose to Buhari insist that his political owned Nigerian National Petroleum ideas and his personal style have Corporation (NNPC) to be like Brazil’s changed dramatically. They point to Petrobras. When asked if he might his carefully crafted acceptance speech: consider selling all or part of the state’s “I shall work for those who voted for me “We will not launch witch as well as those who hunts, but we will insist voted against me on strict adherence to the law” and even those who did not vote at all.”

For those of us who met the equity in the oil and gas industry, 72-year-old Buhari on the campaign he gave a pragmatic response: “That’s trail, his clear thinking on the country’s not in the party manifesto, but we face ailments shone through. He stood a deep crisis and we will examine ramrod straight dressed in a traditional the situation we inherit very closely. babban riga. Buhari’s subtle sense We will take an approach that works of humour has now tempered and is accountable.” Policy advisers his nationalist passions. There was to Buhari promise an early a missionary zeal with which Buhari announcement about a comprehensive identified his two priorities, tackling audit of the NNPC and its affiliates, the “evils of terrorism and corruption”. and the establishment of a new system A former military governor of of regular public reporting of revenue Northeastern State – which is now flows and their management. the epicentre of the Boko Haram Whatever the well-wishers say insurgency – he knows the region well. when Buhari takes the presidential oath His grandfather was a chieftain in the on 29 May, he knows that long and Kanuri ethnic group, from which Boko exhausting battles with vested interests Haram has drawn most its recruits. lie ahead. It is the outcome of those After the 2007 elections, widely fights that will shape the success lambasted as being among the worst of Buhari’s second act. ● P.S. the africa report

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country focus special | nigeria

The ACN bloc

Atiku Abubakar

Team Buhari: choosing who to lead the country

Bola Ahmed Tinubu the africa report

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all rIghtS reServed

Led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) was one of the principal partners in the 2013 merger that created the All Progressives Congress (APC). Tinubu, ACN Governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007, is an assured dealmaker and political mobiliser with a remarkable eye for spotting and deploying talent. Yemi Osinbajo, vice-president elect, served as his attorney general in Lagos State, while Tunde Fashola worked as his chief of staff before going on to succeed him as governor of Lagos in 2007. Tinubu defied great opposition within the party to handpick Fashola as his successor.

WithTinubu’ssupport,reformerslike KayodeFayemi (pro-democracy activist), and Adams Oshiomhole (a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress) became state governors on the platform of the ACN, the party’s expanding influence coming not just through direct electoral wins but also through hard-won court battles. Today, Fashola and Fayemi are key Buhari loyalists, respectively heading the fundraising and policy teams of his campaign.

Ibikunle Amosun, the governor of Ogun State in south-west Nigeria, has been described by Nigeria’s ThisDay newspaper as “perhaps the closest of Buhari’s south-west allies.” Between 2003 and 2007 he occupied a Senate seat as a member of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the same party on whose ticket Buhari ran for president in 2003 and 2007.

Olorunnimbe Mamora, deputy director, operations of the Buhari presidential campaign, is a medical doctor who served two terms as speaker of the Lagos State parliament while Tinubu was governor.

The most prominent female faces in the ACN bloc include Abike Dabiri, a member of the House of Representatives, and Remi Tinubu, Tinubu’s wife, who is currently a senator representing Lagos State.

Sunday alamba/aP/SIPa

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The PDP was regularly saddled with members who felt left out in the scramble for patronage. During the tenure of Bamanga Tukur as party chairman, things got out of control. It led to the unprecedented defection to the APC of several influential members who had by that time formed a faction within the party and proclaimed themselves the ‘New PDP’. This group included former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, former party secretary Abubakar Kawu Baraje, five state governors and several members of the upper and lower chambers of the federal parliament.

Allowing the governors of Nigeria’s second and third most populous states (Kano and Rivers) to leave the party was a bad mistake; with their move to the opposition it was no longer possible to regard the APC as a middling political party. Among the ‘new PDP’ men, Rotimi Amaechi (governor of Rivers State), Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso (governor of Kano State) and Bukola Saraki (former governor of the northern state of Kwara, and currently a senator), stand out. Amaechi bagged the position of campaign director general. Saraki, firmly in control of the politics in his state (his hand-picked successor as governor followed him to the APC, as did the state’s lawmakers), is now in the running for the office of Senate president.

aLL rights reserved

It has been a simple truth trotted out in recent years in Nigeria: if the opposition could federate into a national party instead of staying divided by region, it could take on the ruling PDP. The APC has proved this, and the poaching of disgruntled former PDP members has made victory emphatic.

Now, an executive team has to be formed from these groups.

Buhari loyalists Organised as The Buhari Organisation (TBO), these are Buhari’s closest associates, who have supported his presidential ambitions ever since he joined partisan politics at the turn of the century. They operated as a powerful bloc within the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), on whose platformBuhariranin2003and2007,and formed the core of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which he broke awayfromtheANPPtofoundin2010,and on whose platform he ran in 2011. Within the APC they have enjoyed less prominence than the other coalition partners, but are likely to make a comeback when Buhari forms his government. Prominent names here include Sule Hamma, director general of the Buhari presidential

Tony Momoh

campaign in 2003, 2007 and 2011; Buba Galadima, national campaign secretary of TBO then national secretary of CPC; Tony Momoh, a prominent member of every party Buhari has been involved in since 2003, emerging, in 2010, chairman of CPC; Sarki Abba, Buhari’s personal assistant; Ogbonnaya Onu, possibly his closest aide; and Hamid Ali, a former military governor of Kaduna State, and Buhari’s longtime chief of staff. Galadima has openly fallen out with General Buhari in recent years, but is reportedly on his way back to the fold.

Youtube

The ‘New PDP’

Hadiza Bala-Usman

The thinkers These are individuals who have mostly stayed away from the political spotlight while contributing intellectual and reputational capital to the Buhari campaign. Perhaps first on the list, Lamido Sanusi, former governor of the central bank and Emir of Kano, has long been a fan of General Buhari, and a defender of ‘Buharism’, the economic philosophy of his military government.

Sanusi will be an important ally in the fight against Boko Haram, and in the rollout of a Marshall Plan for northern Nigeria.

Hadiza Bala-Usman, 39, comes with an impressive pedigree; her father is a renowned historian and pan-Africanist who taught for many years at the Ahmadu Bello University in northern Nigeria. In her own right she has come to prominence in the past year as one of the founders of theBringBackOurGirlsmovement,a group of activists who have pressured the Nigerian government regarding the still-missing Chibok schoolgirls.

The trio of Pat Utomi, Ayo Teriba and Doyin Salami, all highly respected Lagos-based economists, have played important behind-the-scenes roles in formulating and shaping policy for the Buhari campaign.

Ifueko Omoigui Okauru is an accountant who came to national prominence for her work reforming Nigeria’s inland revenue service in the two terms she served as its first female executive chairman, between 2004and2012.Togetherwiththeeconomists she has advised Buhari on policy matters, and is being touted as a possible member of his cabinet.

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Profile

AfolAbi Sotunde/ReuteRS

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Rotimi Amaechi Governor, Rivers State

There was no election in Rivers State

The APC governor decried rigging in areas where President Jonathan’s support is strongest, and many people are predicting a senior position for him in the new government

T

he two men – state governor and brigade commander – stood facing each other, almost toe to toe, outside the polling station on the day of the presidential elections.

A crowd gathered as tensions rose in downtown Port Harcourt, Nigeria’s oil capital. The governor, Rotimi Amaechi, fast-talking and demonstrative, was outraged: the people’svotes werebeing hijacked, he insisted. The commander from Bori Camp, Koko Essien, stolid and emphatic, repeated his instructions from superior authorities:

the governor should cast his vote, get into his black four-wheel drive and return to his residence.

Amaechi said he would not take part in a charade. His supporters eyed the well-armed soldiers flanking Brigadier General Koko.

Last year, a military contingent had prevented Amaechi from travelling to the south-west to help the election efforts of his opposition ally Kayode Fayemi in Ekiti State.

Amaechi had come to vote but had heard from his party agents that there were no official result sheets at this polling station and many others. The missing sheets,

Amaechi told The Africa Report, were part of a plot by the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to steal the election in Rivers State.

While citizens diligently cast their votes, he said, a few miles away a group of ruling party apparatchiks would be filling in a set of result sheets showing a landslide victory for their presidential candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan. It is those sheets that would be despatched to the electoral commission’s headquarters in Abuja as part of the verified vote.

And indeed, Gisela Khan, the resident electoral commissioner for Rivers State, announced a landslide two days later. Jonathan and the PDP had won 94.9% of the vote, and his rival Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) had won just 4.7%.

Earlier that day in the governor’s mansion known as Brick House, Amaechi said: “There was no election in Rivers State. […] There were no results sheets in the polling stations.Atleast10peoplewerekilled.

They were shot at and battered.” malpractice

It was, Amaechi seethed, the last stand for Jonathan and the PDP. “The same thing is happening across the south-south and the south-east. […] They’re targeting Rivers, Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom. They’re making sure they maximise the votes in those areas.”

A sense of crisis was building.

Amaechi was juggling a trio of cell phones, intermittently breaking off from press interviews for hushed conversations with political allies.

Attahiru Jega, the zen-like chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, then announced an enquiry into reports of malpractice in Rivers State.

For 24 hours, the elections were on a knife-edge. Outside President Jonathan’s bailiwick of the southsouth and south-east, he was trailing Buhari. Even with the 1.4 million disputed votes from Rivers, victory looked elusive. Then, in the afternoon of 31 March, Jonathan phoned Buhari to concede. ● ● ● the africa report

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country focus special | nigeriA

● ● ● It was an historic moment for Nigeria, a national countering of the global doomsayers. But it was also a personal victory for Amaechi. It was, after all, his dispute with Jonathan and his wife Patience over parochial politics in the Niger Delta that led to the schisms in the ruling party.

After the PDP suspended Amaechi’s membership in 2013, he and another four governors from the north and the Middle Belt split to form the ‘New PDP’, later joining forces with Buhari’s northern-based Congress for Progressive Change and the Action Congress of Nigeria. The new formation – the APC – had a credible national spread, controlling more than a third of state governorships.

bombs for patience

Mutual animosity between the Jonathans and Amaechi escalated. In February, when Amaechi and the APC’s governorship candidate for Rivers State, Dakuku Peterside, arrived to campaign in Okrika, the home town of Patience Jonathan, bombs exploded and shots were fired at their entourage. One killed a policeman.

To his local detractors, Amaechi betrayed the Niger Delta for an alliance with northerners and members of the Yoruba ethnic group. For his party allies, Amaechi broke the mould of regional politics, helping to build an effective national opposition for the first time.

That may explain Buhari’s surprise decision to appoint the extrovert and notoriously undiplomatic Amaechi as director general of his campaign. In evangelical-style speeches, Amaechi convinced crowds that the important point about Buhari was that he had the integrity to change Nigeria for the better.

Buhari launched his presidential campaign in Port Harcourt. It was the sight of crowds coming out for Buhari in the capital of the Niger Delta that presaged a turnaround for Buhari.

Where next for Amaechi? His term as governor expires on 29 May. Some political insiders suggest he will get a top national job – secretary to the government, minister for Niger Delta affairs or oil minister. Amaechi declined to speculate: “I’ve been governor for eight years.

I was speaker for eight years. Before that, I was special assistant to the state governor. I’m tired, I’m exhausted. I’ll be 50 in May […] that means I’ve spent more time in politics than growing up.” ● Interview by Patrick Smith in Port Harcourt

opinion ColIn MCPHerson/CorbIs

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Chika Unigwe

Author, On Black Sisters’ Street (2009) and Black Messiah (2014)

Proud for the first time

A

few days before what has now been termed Nigeria’s historic elections, my cousins who live and work in Abuja left the capital for our hometown, Osumenyi, in the east “for safety”. On the eve of the elections, Abuja residents were shopping like they were preparing for the apocalypse, stockpiling everything from bread to candles.

Everyone feared a repeat of the 2011 post-election violence when President Goodluck Jonathan and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) beat Muhammadu Buhari and the Congress for Progressive Change. Buhari’s supporters took to the streets to protest.

There was particular anger when the PDP was announced as the winner of the gubernatorial elections in Kaduna.

The protests led to three days of riots and violence across 12 northern states. “Whichever of the two elephants wins, it is we who will suffer. We are the grass, afifia. Nothing changes in this country,” one of my fleeing cousins, Njide, told me.

And yet, something did change. Buhari won, and President Jonathan did the hitherto inconceivable. Reportedly, against the wishes of his advisers, Jonathan conceded the election and called Buhari to congratulate him in a phone call that reverberated across the country. There have been calls for Jonathan to be given awards, from the Mo Ibrahim Prize to the Nobel Peace Prize.

While this may be exaggerated, Jonathan did what democracy requires. The significance of his concession cannot be overlooked.

Had he challenged the results, Nigeria most likely would have descended into the catastrophe everyone feared. Instead, my cousins are back in Abuja, picking up exactly where they left off, this time with renewed optimism. “For the first time,” Njide said excitedly to me, “I am proud to be Nigerian.”

The elections were not without glitches: voter apathy was apparent in the gap between the number of registered voters and turnout; there were reports of under-age voters in certain parts of the country; observers said that some returning officers did not turn up or vamoosed with ballot boxes; there were humongous figures from certain northern states; reports of a bomb blast in Enugu discouraged people from going out to vote; and the poll suffered from late voter accreditation in some areas.

Yet for all for these events, there is reason to be hopeful. After 16 years of the PDP ruling unchallenged, Buhari’s All Progressives Congress provided a strong, united opposition. People stood in line for as long as was needed, some stayed back in the polling centres to observe the votes counted with the help of car headlights.

The myth of the power of the incumbent has been broken. Perhaps for the first time since 1999, Nigerian voters feel that their votes count. These are important markers of the evolution of our democracy. These are what we celebrate and what give me hope that we, as citizens, will never again forget that we have the most important office in a democracy. And neither will our leaders. ● the africa report

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country focus special | nigeria

EcoNomy

Buhari win boosts Nigeria’s prospects The stock market has shown its support for the incoming government, which promises better management of the oil sector and resources

M

arkets domestic and international greeted the 28 March election of presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari positively. This was partly relief: a promising if problematic frontier market navigated a historic change of leadership without widespread violence. “A lot of the uncertainty was taken away,” says Zin Bekkali, the chief executive of fund manager Silk Invest.

As a sign of confidence in the elecThe beating heart of the country’s vestion’s winners, the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index rose by 14% from ted interests is the oil and gas sector. For 27 March to 2 April. Bekkali compares example, Nigeria has four refineries that the Nigerian market’s uptrend to India’s havebeenmoribundformorethanadecafter the 2014 election of Prime Minister ade. Rather than refine its own crude, the Narendra Modi. country imports vast amounts, spending The bounce was also due to hope that nearly $7bn in the first six months of 2014 Nigeria’s obvious structural strengths – a alone, according to the central bank. This large population and bountiful natural situation is predicated on a racket, someresources – may finally get the leadership thing that saw various anti-corruption they need. Weak institutions and probes launched and just as weak leadership bedevilled the quickly buried. previous administration, but its policies were by and large positno more swaps ive, argues Bismarck Rewane of There are also controversial The IMF predicts the Financial Derivatives Comswap deals, with commodity growth will pany in Lagos. He says that the traders handing over petroslow to just key difference in the new adminleum products in exchange istration will be in the quality of for Nigeria’s crude oil. Former institutions, which have become central bank governor Lamido in 2015 avenues for cannibalising the Sanusi said last year that those state. “Dismantling the crony swapspartlyexplainwhysome capitalismandrent-seekingrotingovern$20bn had gone missing from Nigeria’s mentwillbequiteatask.Butthepresident national accounts. Buhari’s All Progresswill set the tone, and many people will ivesCongresshascalledforthepracticeto take their cue from that,” says Rewane. “I bescrappedandcriticisedthefactthattwo knowBuhariverywell,andheisnotgoing companies that do not have experience to accept any of that rubbish.” operating oil production assets, Taleveras Nigerians of a less optimistic nature andAiteo,purchasedShell’slargestdownhave a handy acronym for the way Nistream field for $2.9bn last year. gerian big business accommodates new In terms of reform, there are plenty political masters: AGIP, or Any Governof positive aspects in the long-delayed ment In Power. Two of the biggest donors Petroleum Industry Bill, such as the to the outgoing People’s Democratic creation of plastics and fertiliser indusParty, Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola, tries. That chimes well with the top two were spotted in the earliest photos of a economic priorities of the new adminvictorious Buhari camp. istration: infrastructure and agriculture.

Joe Penney/ReuteRs

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4.8%

The Nigerian All Share Index was the world’s best performer in the week after the election results

Buhari will face some stark economic realities. The naira rapidly depreciated from November 2014 to March of this year, and the oil price is projected to stay around $50-60 until the end of the year.

This creates an automatic speed limit in terms of new government spending.

Buhari’s government will almost certainly revise the national budget. In the current N3.6trn ($18bn) 2015 budget, WorldBankalumnaandoutgoingfinance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ignored World Bank recommendations by boosting recurrent spending (e.g. government salaries) to a whopping 91% and bringing down capital expenditure (e.g. infrastructure) to just N387bn. Also of concern is the six-week handover period that many fear PDP heavyweights will use to clear out state and national treasuries.

Still, few would bet against Nigerian entrepreneurs. If Buhari can unshackle them by fixing electricity and transport problems – and dismantling the corrupt duty waiver system – he may just generate the revenue he needs for his most interesting project: a ‘Marshall Plan’ to revitalise the north. If he can spark the economy in the northern regions and thereby cut the ground under the feet of extremistsintheBokoHaramrebelgroup, he will cement his place in history and could reap a peace dividend to boot. ● Nicholas Norbrook

the africa report

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country focus special | nigeriA

ElEctions

How the race was won

With less money than its rivals, the APC poached ruling party dissidents and used technology and social media to get its message out and monitor the vote

H

ow did a 72-year-old retired dicroad; his new allies now provided tator with a record of three failed private jets. presidential bids make history Buhari’s campaign was shaped by its as the first opposition candidate to unvigorous director general, Rivers State seat a ruling party in the federal govgovernor Rotimi Amaechi. A campaign ernment in Nigeria? The story starts in staffer described Amaechi’s style as “hands-on and brazen […] bulldozing 2013 with the launching of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as an alliance his way through.” Another close colof Nigeria’s main opposition parties: league said: “He got into a lot of trouble, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), but he did what needed to be done.” led by former governor of Lagos State And then there was the Bola Tinubu, Bola Tinubu; the Congress for Progressformer two-term governor of Lagos and ive Change (CPC), founded de facto leader of the APC,

by General Muhammadu the man to whom most of Buhari and his allies as a the credit for the emervehicle for the presidential gence of the party should election in 2011; and the go. An astute political opAll Nigeria People’s Party, erator often described as Buhari’s former party.

‘Machiavellian’, Tinubu Few gave the alliance a ensured that Lagos State chance until several senior remained in the ACN’s Less than a sixth members of the ruling hands even when all of Nigeria’s 170 People’s Democratic Party the surrounding southmillion inhabitants western states fell to the (PDP) – including a former cast a ballot in vice-president of Nigeria PDP’s determined assault in the 2003 general elecand five state governors – the 2015 election defected to the APC in 2014. tions. From his perch in The big hurdle the new party faced Lagos, Tinubu led the ACN into the was its choice of a presidential canalliance that produced the APC. didate. It held a primary election in When he led his party into the APC, December 2014, pitting Buhari against Buhari had the reputation for being four others, including Kano State gova ‘northern’ politician guaranteed to ernor Rabiu Kwankwaso and former win only in the 12 northernmost states. vice-president Atiku Abubakar. For the Only once, in 2011, did Buhari win a first time, Buhari took part in a comstate outside his traditional stronghold. petitive primary, and he won easily So Buhari, with his style of a sternin a well-organised and credible vote. faced general, had to learn to smile.

Last October, campaign photos staran exemplary primary ted to emerge of a grinning candidate Buhari’s opponents also wasted little said to have a good sense of humour. time conceding defeat and pledging More surprising still, he started to swap their loyalty, defying predictions of a his northern babban riga and cap for a tuxedo, Western business suits and fraying within the party’s ranks. The tunics indigenous to the south-east and plaudits that followed the primary the Niger Delta, regions where he had – widely seen as the most transparent and best organised in Nigeria’s history – won few votes. There were photos of generated a momentum that helped a thoroughly modern Buhari hugging propel the party through the difficult his daughter, high-fiving a grandchild campaign season. and using an iPad. The APC brought organisational acumen and financial heft to Buhari’s the PDP’s lack of faith in presidential ambition. On previous biometric registration played into campaigns, he usually travelled by the hands of the tech-savvy APc

29.4m

“Every one of the stories had a story […] they were meant to humanise him,” says Adebola Williams, co-founder of StateCraft, the Lagos company that managed communications for Buhari’s campaign. “We wanted to work on the people, so that they would begin to see him as presidential. The goal was to move the man from being a sectional leader to a national icon.”

Technology also helped Buhari’s victory. The electoral commission used biometric voter cards and card reader machines for the first time. All voters had to be accredited by matching their biometric registration cards with their fingerprints, and this limited the scope for inflating the voter register, a traditional method of rigging elections. The PDP opposed the biometric machines, arguing it was unreasonable to test new

Source: INec

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nigeria | country focus special

Sokoto Katsina Zamfara

Kebbi

Yobe

Jigawa Kano

Bauchi

Kaduna

Gombe

Niger Kwara

Source: INec

Oyo Ogun Lagos

Adamawa

Plateau FCT

Osun

Ekiti

Electoral Commission,” says a campaign insider, adding that it was those APC-generated results that the PDP would later brandish as evidence that the party had infiltrated the electoral commission.

Technology also helped in fundraising and building a database of supporters. The Buhari Support Organisations, a campaign group with a strong following in northern Nigeria, amassed a database of more than 600,000 mobile phone numbers that volunteers bombarded with calls and text messages.

Borno

Nasarawa

Kogi

Ondo

Taraba Benue

Enugu Anambra Ebonyi Cross Imo Delta River Abia Rivers Akwa Bayelsa Ibom

Edo

Buhari

better organisation

Jonathan

cidents, rigging, late arrival of election officials – and passed it to supervisors for campaign officials to use.

In Abuja, the APC set up a covert ‘control room’ that collated results from tens of thousands of polling stations across the country and used third parties to disseminate the information gathered through traditional and social media. “We called the results 24 hours ahead of the Independent National

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/afP

technology at presidential elections and claiming voters would be disenfranchised when the machines failed.

The APC organised a highly effective monitoring network to check the official results. In Lagos, the APC ran a call centre where 200 uniformed agents with computers and phones kept in touch with 12,000 party agents across the state’s polling units. Analysts processed information from the field – violent in-

Presidential results state by state

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The APC ran a stronger campaign than the ruling party. Its realisation that it could not match the PDP’s spending helped it focus on what mattered most. The “APC [has been] better organised, up to the polling unit,” says David Iornem, a political consultant and author of several books on political campaigning in Nigeria. “This was not observable in the PDP’s operations.”

After the government decided in February to delay the elections for six weeks, the PDP ramped up its newspaper, television and internet advertising campaigns, focusing on attacking Buhari’s education, health and human rights record. Then, it organised a series of slick events where voters could meet President Jonathan in Lagos and Abuja.

The cash-strapped APC was caught unawares by the postponement, so it concentrated on relatively inexpensive town-hall meetings and the efforts of volunteer groups on social media. It kept its messages focused on key issues: Boko Haram, the economy and corruption. It also built new alliances: for example, it won over bands of disgruntled PDP members frustrated by the ruling party’s chaotic governorship and parliamentary primaries.

Nigerians are arguing over whether Buhari won the election or Jonathan lost it. So many years in power made the PDP complacent. President Jonathan’s missteps on Boko Haram, electricity and oil industry scandals boosted the appeal of his rival.

“When you’re in power, there are more things that can be said against you than against the opposition,” says Iornem. “The PDP felt so confident it was in power and would always be in power. That was its undoing.” ● Tolu Ogunlesi in Lagos

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country focus special | NigEriA

Nigerian banks have learnt from the lessons of the past and are adept at loan restructuring

Gwenn DUBOURTHOUMIeU fOR JA

40

FiNaNce

Banking in uncertain times

New capital requirements, electricity sector risks and the impacts of naira depreciation are hurdles banks face while adjusting to a new administration in Abuja

E

more cash, please

That might blunt investor sentiment at a critical time for Nigeria’s banks. Some of them require a capital boost to comply with Basel II regulations, global banking regulations that specify minimum 2009, several Nigerian banks, including capital adequacy ratios of 10% for naGTBank and First Bank, have built up tional banks and 15% for those with an sizeable lending portfolios in the oil secinternational presence. tor.AccordingtoAdemolaAdeyemi-Bero, The Nigerian government has given chief executive of FIRST Exploration banks that have breached these require& Petroleum, a Nigerian oil company, ments until 13 June to submit recapitlocal banks lent 70% of the $10bn spent alisation plans and until the by indigenous oil companies following year to raise the cash. on buying assets from the oil Some financial institutions, majors in recent years. such as Skye Bank – which Fo r e x a mp l e, 4 0 % o f bought Mainstreet Bank late GTBank’s gross loans are to last year – have to raise workthe oil sector, with 12% focused on upstream activities. That is ing capital. Skye says it is tryThe naira has something ratings agency Fitch ing to raise $500m, starting lost a quarter with a N20bn 90-day bond for called a “key risk” in a February of its value domestic investors. Stanbic report. With an oil price of $50 against and Ecobank are also set to per barrel for the foreseeable the US dollar raise capital in the near future. future in 2015, lending to oil during For Fejokwu, banks will not explorers and producers has the past face too many challenges raisdropped around the world.

12 months ing the money. The problem may turn out to be that they new tricks are unable to make the most of it. He But analysts do not say it will be back to explains: “Banks that already have the future. “Nigerian banks have learnt raised their money are just waiting for loan restructuring,” says Jude Fejokwu, the post-election period to see where chief executive of Nigeria-based Thadthey can put that money to use. If you deus Research. This allows banks to call are only now starting to raise funds, in businesses that have difficulty repayyou are late in the game.” ● ing loans to renegotiate terms, thereby Nicholas Norbrook avoiding a bad loan on their books. “Asset

%

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lection years tend to bring challenges for Nigerian banks. This year has a few more dangers than normal – falling oil prices, the depreciating naira and the need to raise capital to meet regulatory requirements. Developments in the electricity and oil and gas sectors could also prove problematic for the financial sector.

The government of outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan argues that its push to resuscitate Nigeria’s electricity sector by infusing it with private investment has been one of its great success stories. Local banks, which lent heavily to the sector, are now concerned that they may have difficulty recouping their investments.

The government announced in midMarch that electricity tariffs will go down 50%, making it much harder for distribution companies to stay solvent. Those banks involved in the sector include Zenith Bank and Diamond Bank, both of which raised $500m on promises to investors that the proceeds would be spent on power projects.

The incoming Buhari government will have to rule on whether to maintain that tariff drop, while keeping an eye on debt levels. As with the toxic-asset crisis of

quality has become a huge bragging right within the industry,” Fejokwu explains.

Nevertheless, there are other dangers lurking. Many of the bigger banks have been lending in US dollars, and the value of the naira against the dollar slid by 25% over the past 12 months. The banks say that lending in dollars is not a problem because the oil assets backing many loans pay out in dollars. “What about the underlying businesses? If cheap oil puts them out of business, that will be a non-performing loan,” argues Fejokwu.

This slide against the dollar has hit valuations on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) too. The NSE’s current N10trn market capitalisation is worth just $50bn today, compared to $60bn when the naira traded at 160 to the dollar in September 2014.

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MESSAGE

Nigeria’s dark horse Benedict Peters is the most influential African businessman you’ve never heard of; and he wants it that way.

The 49-year-old Nigerian is famously camera shy, but following his recent $2.8 billion acquisition of an Oil Mining Lease (OML) from Shell,Total and ENI, he can no longer stay in the shadows.

Peters’ rise is eponymous with that of Nigeria. From a modest family of five, he graduated from the University of Benin with a degree in geography and regional planning. Drawn to the

www.aiteogroup.com Difcom - F.C. Photos : DR

Benedict Peters immense opportunities in Nigerian energy, he rose through the ranks of Ocean and Oil (now Oando) before founding Sigmund Communecci, which became the biggest private tank farm owner in West Africa before restructuring in 2008.

Out of ashes came the Aiteo Group, founded with his brother, Francis. With Aiteo, the Peters’ vision

has been to participate in the entire value chain of the oil and gas industry, from exploration to distribution of refined products. This vertical integration, according to Aiteo, will make them “the largest and most efficient energy company in Africa.”

The Shell deal is Aiteo’s first major step towards their ambitious vision. Supported by the Local Content Act, a policy aimed at increasing Nigeria’s control over its resources, Peters’ company acquired the OML 29 block, thought to have up to 2.2 billion barrels of oil and 300 cubic feet of gas, as well as the Nembe Creek Trunkline (NCTL).

Peters has also diversified, investing over $2.1 billion in

the power industry, making him the owner of Africa’s largest private power utility company. He has also made sizeable investments in Nigerian agriculture, still by far the country’s biggest employer.

As global energy prices remain low, Peters’ focus on efficiency and diversification looks set to pay off.

What is certain, though, is that this detail-oriented workaholic will have to choose between his cherished anonymity and the success Aiteo is striving for.

By Stanley Opeyemi

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country focus special | niGeria

interview

Maher Jarmakani

Group executive director, Jagal Group

We are taking advantage of being a first-mover nigeria’s Jagal Group – which runs two shipyards with Subsea 7 – is confident about the prospects of the oil sector and has opened its own data centre for banks and telecoms TAR: You are a regular partner for companies looking for local content. To what extent has the 2010 local content act been key?

MAheR JARMAkAni: It was very important, but actually the local content bill was a metamorphosis of the way companies like ourselves were going.

The country definitely has to add value internally. The Nigeria content bill started off with 24 directives coming out of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. They saw the value that it was adding, giving confidence to big Nigerian companies and small and medium-sized enterprises aspiring to grow their industrial base. The bill becoming law is definitely something that added value, but for Jagal – with or without the bill – that’s the way we do business.

Will the incoming administration push the Petroleum industry Bill (PiB) though?

The PIB definitely has slowed down investment, not because of whether the bill was good policy or not, but because of a lack of clarity. It has been something on the horizon, and the international investors coming wanted clarity and consistency of policy. Certainly, the lack of decision and [questions about] what form the bill was going to take have affected the industry.

how has the $50-barrel environment affected things?

Although affected by it in the short term, oil and gas companies take a very long-term view, and certainly countries take longterm views. Of course it is felt in the economy of the country, the budget of the country. What it has done is slow down decisionmaking, which has been the recipe for a lot of confusion.

Why partner with companies rather than go it alone?

Jagal and Subsea 7 came together to form NigerStar 7, a world-class engineering, procurement, construction and in-

Rack Centre’s client list proves there are real opportunities in Africa in the data sector stallation (EPCI) joint venture focused on subsea to surface EPCI for international oil companies (IOCs). In the supply of international oil and gas services, the major IOCs want to know what they are getting – in Brazil, the United States, Asia and everywhere else they contract with these companies – is the same product and service they can get in Nigeria. Under this relationship, we have two major yards: the biggest is Nigerdock, which is the biggest yard in West Africa,

All RIGhts ReseRved

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and the fabrication facility with all the support services coming out of Snake Island Integrated Free Zone; and on top of that, we have the yard in Warri.

Are you helping subcontractors to gain skills?

In our oil and gas business, having very strong contractors is key for delivering projects. We mentor them in areas where we see there are gaps. We find the long-term relationship in which we help them to improve on their safety standards and delivery standards. That is actually an added benefit to us. We see that having a pool of professional contractors and service providers is key, even for Nigerdock.

Why the move into the data sector?

It’s the infrastructure of the future, and we are taking advantage of being a first-mover. Our data centre business, Rack Centre, was commissioned two years ago. It is the first tier-certified data centre in Africa outside of South Africa – a 9,000kW data centre development in phases over the next three to four years. Some of the clients include Vodacom, Nigerian banks and African insurance companies. It is proof that there are real opportunities in Africa. ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook

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day in the life Extraordinary storiEs of ordinary pEoplE

RIccI ShRyock foR taR

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SURVIVOR'S TALE

Lafayette Vinton, 34, has been a preacher in Monrovia for more than a decade. Since surviving Ebola his sermons have taken on a new message – and importance

B

eing a preacher was not part of my life plan. When I was about 18 years old, I was in a classroom and a brother came to minister to some of the students.

I listened to how he described heaven and hell, and I was afraid of going to hell. I never wanted to lose my soul. I started sensing the calling.

My wife’s name was Rebecca. I met her in 2006 at a church gathering. That very day I saw her, something in my spirit told me that she was my wife. I felt it. I really felt it – that genuine love. She was a nursing student at the time. I proposed to her, but it was another month before she could respond to my proposal.

We had a little pharmacy. It’s a small community, and many of the people who would come were less privileged.

When these people came, they would say “I don’t have money, can you help me?” And because of her passion for humanity, she would treat them and just let it be.

During the [Ebola] outbreak she was helping, treating people, so I strongly believe that is how my wife contracted the virus. We got to the Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) on 13 August. We went to the Eternal Love Winning Africa hospital. When we got there, we tested positive and went through the treatment. But while in the process of going through the treatment, I lost my wife. When I saw my wife lying there, I got afraid and

decided to escape. I took to the beach side. While running on the beach, a helicopter was in the air pursuing me.

When day broke, I received a lot of calls from my pastor colleagues who were telling me to return back to the ETU because my escape was announced on many of our national radio stations. They pleaded with me, and I finally agreed to go back. I went through my treatment and I came out successfully on 2 September, leaving my wife behind. When I got back home, I discovered one of my daughters died, my little sister died and a little girl who was living with my wife and I also died. So I lost four people in the process.

TESTIMONIES

I am one of the founding members of the Ebola Survivors Association of Liberia. I see this as one of the ways I can resist my depression. I feel very happy to be among many of those who were also infected with the virus and came out alive. When I go out to evangelise, the first thing I do before going into the message is to tell them about the reality of the virus and how we all should take precautions. I go from place to place sharing my testimony.

Our church used to be packed. Because of what is gripping the country and because of what I went through, other people are still afraid to come around with the fear that the virus is still around. Now I have two daughters: Wonders and Glorious. We live right here at the church.

They give testimonies in the morning. They quote scripture. When I come home from the church, I spend time with them. We talk. I tell them about life – how they ought to be when they grow up, how God wants their life to be … how to love people, how to care for people – like their mama did. ● Interview by Ricci Shryock the africa report

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