PUBLICATIONS
Vol.49 | No.8
$ 9.00
DAVID MCINTOSH
AUGUST 2020 | a i n o n l i n e .c o m
Business aviation bounces back by Chad Trautvetter Business aircraft utilization has made a recovery from its Covid-19-induced low in April that can best be described by industry watchers as a reversed square root symbol—a V-shaped recovery that plateaus before it can fully return to pre-pandemic levels. “Activity was so suppressed that it was bound to come back,” Argus International v-p of market intelligence Travis Kuhn told AIN. That plateau was expected to be reached last month in the key North American market, with traffic returning to about 83 percent of normal levels, he said. Kuhn expects activity in the region to then level off at about 15 to 20 percent of normal for at least the next two months due to minimal business-related travel, international travel bans, and health of the overall economy. “If the August forecast holds then we will see approximately 225,000 business aviation flights in North America for the month. That is off from the 2019 monthly average of 260,000 but it would represent a 300 percent increase from our April low of 74,771,” he added.
Much of the recovery to-date has been driven by an increase in leisure travel demand as those who can afford to fly privately seek a safer, virus-avoiding alternative to the airlines. This was reflected in recent Argus TraqPak flight data for North America, which shows the top-five states for business flying are vacation hubs: Florida, Texas, California, Colorado, and Arizona. “But leisure can’t carry the water,” Kuhn warned. JetNet iQ managing director Rolland Vincent agreed with Kuhn’s assessment. “Recovery in flight ops is proceeding, but the flight patterns are very distinct from years before,” he said. “Florida figures prominently and ‘business’ trip purpose is limited in the rationales for flying, but I think that’s too simplistic. Folks are relocating themselves and their families to nicer/greener/ bluer spots while they work remotely.” The last 15 to 20 percent of the recovery— that predicated on a rise in business travel— will be harder to recapture because it will be more or less tied to Wall Street, according to Kuhn. The fact that New Jersey, typically a
hotspot for business aircraft thanks to New York City gateway Teterboro Airport, didn’t rank among the top states in the Argus Traqpak data speaks to the current lackluster demand for business travel. Kuhn warned that business aviation entered this environment in a global pandemic and will likely emerge in a recession, so “all bets are off on exactly what our recovery will look like.” For business aviation, a recession would be “heavily tied” to Wall Street, Kuhn said. continues on page 32
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Charter Kinect Air promises new way to fly page 17
Cabin Tech The latest news in airborne comm page 26
Safety NetJets steps up training game page 30