Attendance and Educational Attainment of Primary School Children In Mozambique

Results of the 2018 Round

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

ABSTRACT The 2018 Avaliação Longitudinal da Desistência Escola (ALDE, Longitudinal Assessment of School Dropout) is the first nationally representative survey of around 5,400 primary school children (aged 5–22) that investigates the patterns and drivers of boys’ and girls’ primary school educational outcomes over time.

This report on the 2018 baseline survey round presents key findings focusing on pupils attendance, educational attainment (progression through grade according to age) and their relationship with child, family, school and community characteristics.

Designed to inform the policy process, ALDE contributes to strengthening policy response by providing evidence on a child’s trajectory through primary school and identifying critical time points for interventions, especially for girls.

Keywords: Dropout, educational attainment, attendance, absenteeism, primary school, socio-economic factors, gender, longitudinal, Mozambique.

The purpose of this report is to facilitate the exchange of knowledge among UNICEF personnel, its partners and a wider audience. The contents do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF. Suggested citation: UNICEF (2020). Attendance and educational attainment of primary school children in Mozambique. The results of the 2018 round of the Longitudinal Assessment of School Dropout. Maputo, Mozambique.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The planning, implementation and analysis of the ALDE 2018 survey have been a collaborative effort between the UNICEF Mozambique Country Office team and the academic and research faculty of the Pedagogical University of Mozambique (UP), with oversight from the Ministry of Education and Human Development of Mozambique (MINEDH).

The development of this report and corresponding analysis were led by Zlata Bruckauf, Research and Evaluation Specialist of UNICEF Mozambique and principal investigator of the study. Statistical and analytical support was provided by Prof.

Carlos Lauchande (UP), Rafael Pontuschka (UNICEF), Tomohiko Morita (UNICEF) and Paola Ballon (University of Oxford); Andreea R. Torre (UNICEF) contributed to the background research and drafting of the report.

This report would not have been possible without the direct contribution and dedication of the UP faculty and the coordinators of the Avaliação Longitudinal da Desistência Escola (ALDE, Longitudinal Assessment of School Dropout): Prof Daniel Nivagara (national coordination), Maria Luisa Lopes Chicote (northern region), Adriano Fanissela Niquice (southern region) and Nelson Patia (central region), who oversaw the survey implementation, as well as the continuing support of data manager Fei Manheche and the teams of supervisors and enumerators.

The report benefited from the insightful input of Kenji Ohira, Celina Myrann Sorboe (Education Section, UNICEF Mozambique), Alvaro Fortin (UNICEF, ESARO) and feedback from the technical staff and representatives of the MINEDH, participants of the Troika Education partner meeting and of the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) conference in Maputo, “Transformation Towards Better Jobs”, as well as other UNICEF Mozambique Country Office colleagues. It also recognizes the important contributions of Andrea Rossi, Yara Berti and Lina Bertram to the conceptualization and development of the survey and its first piloting in Zambezia Province in 2017.

The team is grateful for the editorial support of Barbara Hall.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acronyms and Abbreviations

10

Executive Summary

11

Introduction

16

1. Background and Rationale

19

BOX 1. Key terms used 19 1.1 Educational Context of Mozambique

19

1.2 Evidence on Factors Affecting Pupils’ Absenteeism and Dropout

20

1.2.1 Child-related Factors

21

1.2.2 Household Socio-Economic Background

23

1.2.3 Quality of Education and School-Level Determinants

24

2. Framework and Methodological Approach

28

2.1 The Socio-Ecological Model

28

2.2 Survey Design and Sampling

33

2.3 Sampling Strategy

33

2.4 Outcome Indicators and Contextual Variables

37

Pupils’ Non-Attendance and Absenteeism

37

Educational Attainment

38

Constructed Variables

39

3. Magnitude of School Non-Attendance, Grade Repetition and School Attainment

40

3.1 Characteristics of Non-Attendance and Absenteeism

42

3.2 Grade Retention

42

BOX 2. Reported reasons for school absenteeism

43

3.3 Educational Attainment

43

4. Child Deprivation and Family Socio-Economic Background 4.1 Access to Basic Material Goods

44 44

BOX 3. The extent to which childrens’ basic needs are met 4.2 Family Wealth

45 46

4

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

5. School-Level Factors: Quality and Effectiveness

51

5.1 Teachers’ Characteristics and Quality of Teaching

51

5.1.1 Sex of Teachers

51

5.1.2 Teachers’ Academic Qualifications and Experience

52

5.2 School Resources

53

5.3 Water, Sanitation and Hygiene in Schools

55

BOX 6. Impact of WASH services in primary schools on children’s attendance

56 57

5.4 School Management 5.4.1 School Principals

57

5.4.2 School Council Meetings and Supervision Visits

58

Box 7. Safety of the school environment 6. Community-Level Factors

59 62

6.1 Regional Disparity

62

6.2 Pre-School Provision

64

Box 8. Rites of passage to adulthood for Mozambican girls and boys 7. Key Drivers of Absenteeism and School Attainment

66 68

7.1 Factors That Hinder Attendance and Educational Attainment

69

7.2 Factors Enabling Better Outcomes

70

Conclusions and Policy Implications

73

References

77

Annex I

2018 Survey Questionnaires

84

Annex II

Statistics on school level indicators

86

Annex III Statistics on Water and Sanitation Indicators

91

Annex IV Mean of Frequent Attendance of the Pupil by the Number of Council Meetings

95

Annex V

Results of Logit Regression on the Likelihood of the Child

Missing the Two Last Days of School Prior to the Interview

96

Annex VI

Logistic Regression Variables

97

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

FIGURES Figure 1. Analytical framework and hypotheses Figure 2. School sample across provinces (2018) Figure 3. Total no. of pupils, by sex and age Figure 4. Frequency of school attendance reported by teachers and caregivers Figure 5. Duration of school non-attendance reported by teachers Figure 6. Percentage of infrequent school attendance, by sex and age, reported by caregivers and teachers Figure 7. Infrequent attendance at the urban, rural and national levels, reported by teachers and caregivers Figure 8. Main perceived reason for non-attendance Figure 9. Educational attainment at the urban, rural and national levels Figure 10. Falling behind one school year, by sex Figure 11. School attendance according to whether the child’s basic needs are met, and his or her ownership of material goods Figure 12. Child’s possession of material goods, national level Figure 13. Pupils’ non-attendance, by wealth quintile Figure 14. Family wealth and educational attainment Figure 15. Caregivers’ confidence that their child will complete secondary school Figure 16. School non-attendance and pupils’ and teachers’ sex Figure 17. Frequency of attendance by possession of basic school materials Figure 18. School attendance according to number of pupils in the classroom and possession of school materials Figure 19. School attendance according to drinking water and sanitation facilities Figure 20. Pupils on track and not on track, and school principals’ educational attainment Figure 21. No. of supervision visits and frequency of attendance Figure 22. Children’s complaints about teachers and other children reported by caregivers, by province Figure 23. Absenteeism in the last two days prior to the interview, reported by caregivers Figure 24. Proportion of children on track, according to age, by province Figure 25. Access to infrastructure, exposure to climate shocks and pupils’ non-attendance Figure 26. School absence on the day prior to and the day of the interview, or both days, by preschool attendance Figure 27. Educational attainment and pre-school attendance Figure 28. Percentage of participation in initiation rites, by age and sex

29 31 32 37 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 45 47 47 49 52 54 55 56 58 59 60 62 63 64 65 65 66

Figure 29. Percentage of boys’ (left) and girls’ (right) participation in initiation rites, by province

67

BOXES Box 1. Key terms used Box 2. Reported reasons for school absenteeism Box 3. The extent to which childrens’ basic needs are met Box 4. The impact of caregivers’ expectations for children’s education in Mozambique.

Box 5. Teacher-parent communication Box 6. Impact of WASH services in primary schools on children’s attendance Box 7. Safety of the school environment Box 8. Rites of passage to adulthood for Mozambican girls and boys

17 44 51 54 60 63 66 74

TABLES Table 1. Target population Table 2. Achieved sample sizes Table 3. Sample of children and young people in the survey, by age and sex Table 4. Proportion of pupils in each grade, by age Table 5. Educational attainment, by sex Table 6. School attendance according to pupil’s access to writing and reading materials at home Table 7. School attendance according to teachers’ professional experience Table 8. Results of logit regression on the likelihood of a child’s frequent attendance and being 'on track'.

6

29 30 31 40 41 45 51 81

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

ANNEX TABLES ANNEX I 83

Table 1. Questionnaire structure of the ALDE 2018 round ANNEX II Table 1. Pupils absenteeism and teacher’s age and sex

85

Table 2. Pupils on track and not on track, by teacher’s age and sex

85

Table 3. Pupils attendance and teacher’s academic and professional training

86

Table 4. Educational attainment and teachers’ academic and professional training

87

Table 5. Pupils on track and not on track, according to classroom conditions and possession of school materials

88

Table 6. Pupils on track and not on track according to school principal profiles

89

Table 7. Pupils school attendance and school principal profiles 90 ANNEX III Table 1. Summary statistics of WASH variables and associated outcome measures

91

Table 2. Logistic regression model for school attendance

92

Table 3. Logistic regression model for school attainment

93

Table 4. Logistic regression model for school absenteeism in the last period

93

ANNEX IV 95

Table 1. Mean of frequent pupil attendance ANNEX V Table 1. Results of logit regression on the likelihood of the child’s missing the last two days of school prior to the interview

97

ANNEX VI Table 1. Description of variables

98

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ALDE

Avaliação Longitudinal da Desistência Escolar (Longitudinal Assessment of School Dropout) (Mozambique)

DHS

Demographic and Health Surveys

EMIS

Education Management Information System

EPI

Expanded Programme on Immunization

ESAR

Eastern and Southern African Region

GDP

Gross domestic product

MCA

Multiple Correspondence Analysis

MINEDH Ministry of Education and Human Development (Mozambique) MICS

Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys

INE

Instituto Nacional de Estatística (National Institute of Statistics)

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OR

Odds ratio

SDG

Sustainable Development Goal

UIS

UNESCO Institute for Statistics

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WHO

World Health Organization 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COPYRIGHTS (ORGANIZATION/YEAR/PHOTOGRAPHER: UNICEF/2018/ZLATA BRUCKAUF)

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

This report presents key findings from the baseline 2018 round of the first longitudinal survey of primary school dropout in Mozambique – Avaliação Longitudinal da Desistência Escolar (ALDE, Longitudinal Assessment of School Dropout in Mozambique). A nationally representative sample of 5,364 children in primary school (Grades 1–7) from all 11 provinces of Mozambique will be followed over a total of four years to investigate the patterns and drivers of boys’ and girls’ educational outcomes over time. Designed to inform policy process, it contributes to strengthening policy response by providing evidence on the child’s trajectory through primary school and identifying critical time points, especially for girls.

International and national evidence reviewed in this report shows that drivers of school absenteeism, school progression and dropout are multifaceted and cumulative. While some evidence is available with regard to service delivery indicators affecting children’s schooling in Mozambique (World Bank, 2019), there are currently no national studies that explore the dynamic nature of a child’s educational path and demand-side factors that influence primary school dropout.

The longitudinal design of ALDE is a comprehensive effort to fill this evidence gap.

METHODOLOGY

5,364 pupils 60 schools

ALDE is designed as mixed-method, longitudinal research that follows the sequential, explanatory approach (Creswell et al., 2003). A qualitative, explanatory component will be designed based on 2018 results and inform the subsequent ALDE rounds to complement and enhance quantitative findings. By adopting a socio-ecological model (Bronfenbrenner, 1979), with its interconnected and hierarchical levels of influence (child, family, school, community), it is acknowledged that many different actors and ecosystems are relevant to the child’s primary school trajectory in a lowincome country context.

The ALDE sample is based on the two-stage cluster sampling frame where schools (N=60) were the first-stage units with cohorts of 90 pupils randomly selected from three different grades in each school. Grade 1 pupils were oversampled to meet the needs of longitudinal design. The achieved sample of 5,364 primary school children (between the ages of 5 and 25) in 2018 is representative at the national level, and will serve as the basis for the sampling frame for the follow-up rounds. The survey collected data on: targeted children (answered by teachers and caregivers); family socio-economic welfare (answered by the primary caregiver or head of the household); school and teacher characteristics (answered by the school director principal and child’s teacher); and access to community services and infrastructure (answered by the community leader). Data collection was conducted between September and October 2018.

Given that school dropout is defined as an inter-year change in enrolment, first measured in the 2019 round, the outcome indicators presented in this 2018 report are pupils’ school attendance and educational attainment (i.e. the child being in the expected grade according to the child’s age). Data on school attendance are triangulated with survey responses of teachers and caregivers, as well as observations during school visits. The report presents a descriptive analysis of the bivariate relationships and discusses the results of multivariate logistic regressions on the likelihood of expected educational outcomes of interest.

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

KEY FINDINGS SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION OF PRIMARY SCHOOL PUPILS Out of the total primary school sample of pupils aged from five to 25, almost two "....almost two in ten children are in ten children (17%, or 941) are adolescents aged 13–18; there is also a small adolescents" number (15) of young adults aged 19–25. Furthermore, there is a significantly higher representation of males than females in both adolescent and young adult sub-groups, which raises serious questions of equity in access to education as well as about the destination of girls after primary school. The youngest pupils in the sample are aged 4 and 5, suggesting that some parents use schooling as a form of childcare. From the school’s perspective, such large age differentials are likely to pose significant instructional and management challenges. From a child’s and young person’ perspective, many lost years of learning and the lack of grade progression diminish the likelihood of further education and their transition to the

17%

labour market.

ARE ADOLESCENTS aged 13–18

MAGNITUDE OF SCHOOL NON-ATTENDANCE, GRADE REPETITION AND SCHOOL ATTAINMENT Based on caregiver’s responses, one in three children (32%) missed school at least one out of two days prior to the interview. Based on the observational spotcheck method1, on average, children attended 61 per cent of the time (with a median of 3.4 observations per child). Around nine per cent of children do not attend school regularly (hereafter ‘non-attendance’) throughout the year according to teachers and caregivers; more than half of these reported cases (58%) are cases of chronic absenteeism (i.e. the children missed more than one academic term out of four).

Less than half (48%) of all children in our sample are on track, i.e. attend a grade appropriate for their age. Boys are more likely than girls to attend school irregularly during the school year and fall four or more years behind their expected grade (15% vs. 11%), irrespective of age. Girls are more likely than boys to be on track (51% vs. 46%); this is true until the onset of puberty (aged 12–13), when more girls start repeating a grade for the first time, and differences between girls and boys narrow.

By the age of 11, less than one sixth of the children reached Grade 6 (14%). Nearly one in five 11-year-olds (18%), who should be ready by that age to progress to secondary school, never go beyond Grade 1. Although there are no comparable official statistics by age, according to the World Bank report (Fox et al., 2012), the repetition rate in 2007 was highest in Grade 1 and 5 (13.7 and 20 per cent, respectively). More recent official statistics of MINEDH show that the average pass rate2 declines dramatically through primary school grades, from 98.1 per cent in the Grade 1 to 65.2 per cent in Grade 3 and 44.8 per cent in Grade 5 (MINEDH, 2018).

Used as an alternative approach to observation, ‘spot-checks’ are based on the observation of a list of predetermined conditions at one point in time during a visit to a specific field-location (e.g. household, classroom, work-place). It allows for the observer to ascertain ongoing activities, the location of those involved and their degree of involvement. During all of the days of fieldwork, enumerators checked that the school was open. Also, every two days they checked whether the target children, teachers and principals were present at the school.

1

2

It is the difference between the pupils who reached the end the academic year and the pupils who have passed the grade.

11

Less than half

48%

of all children in our sample are on track, i.e. attend a grade appropriate for their age”.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

TWICE AS MANY CHILDREN FROM RURAL AREAS

10%

THAN FROM URBAN AREAS

4%

parents

ARE LIKELY TO ATTEND SCHOOL INFREQUENTLY

only half of the surveyed

52% WERE CONFIDENT

or very confident that their child would complete secondary school.

The MINEDH 2020 report claims that, in 2019, the retention rate between Grades 1 and 3 was higher than in the previous five years (76%) while recognizing the persistent problem of older children attending EP1 level (MINEDH, 2020b).

Structural disparities between urban and rural areas of Mozambique are closely reflected in the disparity of outcomes. Twice as many children from rural areas (10%) than from urban areas (4%) are likely to attend school infrequently; and less than half of all rural children (46%) progress in school according to their age, compared to the majority of urban children (65%).

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND BOTH CHILD-SPECIFIC DEPRIVATIONS AND FAMILY SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND There are different approaches to measure socio-economic wealth and deprivation.

This report uses a simple scale of children’s possessions, i.e. those reported to either belong to the child (e.g. a blanket, a pair of shoes) or are used by the child (e.g. TV, radio, Internet), in order to examine the relationship between educational attainment and child deprivations. In addition, an approach validated in other sociodemographic surveys such as Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), and a range of family assets to construct an ‘asset index’ are used. Both can be interpreted as a proxy of family socio-economic status.

Family wealth, measured through the index of household assets, is a strong factor affecting educational attainment (likelihood of being on track) independently from other household, child or school characteristics. Consistently across the measures, low family wealth (as measured by the asset index) and/or the child’s lack of access to basic needs or personal items are associated with school attendance and grade progression, controlling for the child’s demographic and school characteristics: 51 per cent of the children who had breakfast on the day of the interview attended the school frequently, compared to 37 per cent who attended infrequently or never attended; 85 per cent of those who had at least two changes of clothing attended regularly, compared to 75 per cent of those who did not. The poorest children from the first and second quintile on the asset index are three times more likely to fall far behind (four or more years) than their richer peers of the fifth quintile (17% vs. 5%).

Children whose caregiver is educated up to the secondary level are nearly twice as likely to be on track in their primary school studies (78%) as their peers whose caregiver was educated only up to the primary level (46%). In multivariate analysis, the effect of parents’ education is reduced once controlled for family wealth (asset index).

Global evidence shows that parental expectations play a critical role in children’s academic path. According to ALDE data, only half of the surveyed parents (52%) were confident or very confident that their child would ‘complete secondary school’. The socio-economic context of the area is important: higher expectations for child’s secondary school completion are observed in areas with better labour market opportunities, such as the Inhambane Province, Maputo City and Maputo Province (72%, 73% and 89%, respectively). This is in contrast to 31 per cent of caregivers in Cabo Delgado Province and 40 per cent in Zambezia Province. A response concerning a shorter time horizon (i.e. a return to school the following year) reveals rural-urban differences: three times more caregivers in rural areas 12

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

than in urban areas were ‘a bit unsure or not sure at all’ whether the child would return to school the following year (15% and 5%, respectively).

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES AND SCHOOL-LEVEL FACTORS Exploratory and multivariate analysis confirmed the importance of teachers’ experience, particularly in the same school. Being taught by more experienced teachers is associated with a 30 per cent better chance of being on track in the studies according to age. This might reflect a broader set of skills and competencies of the teacher, including the ability to maintain a longer-term relationship with pupils of his/her school. Children who had better outcomes were more likely to study in classes with female teachers, which is likely to be linked to gender differences of teaching staff in urban and rural areas.

Descriptive results show that school materials matter, but are not enough to secure better primary school results. It was observed that access to any basic learning conditions (access to textbooks, desks, stationary) not only affects regular attendance, but is also linked to the quality of the overall system, measured here as the likelihood of pupils being on-track. But this is not independent from the overall structural conditions of the community and the region (e.g. access to infrastructure).

The results also highlight the vital importance of school management. More frequent supervision visits conducted by district authorities are associated with a 15 per cent better chance of pupils’ frequent attendance. This is likely to reflect the accountability pressure experienced by school management. At the same time, no evidence was found supporting the positive effect of school councils. This requires further investigation and measures that would better reflect community-level engagement in these governance bodies.

Lack of or inconsistent communication between parents and schools impedes parents’ ability to support the child’s school attendance. Alarmingly low levels of parent-school communication on important school-related issues and absenteeism observed in the ALDE 2018 round call for urgent policy attention: most caregivers (58%) reported never having spoken to the child’s teacher, and a sizeable proportion (31%) never justified the child’s absence from school.

Basic water and sanitation facilities are paramount to ensuring regular school attendance and successful attainment for all children but particularly for girls.

The results show the importance of ensuring not only access, but also privacy of sanitary facilities. The children in our sample were twice as likely to attend school when school latrines had a door and walls. Multivariate analysis also showed that the presence of an improved water source inside the school premises is associated with a 90 per cent reduction in the odds that menstruating girls will miss school in the last two days prior to the interview.

Inclusive and safe school environment is an essential condition for learning. Seven per cent of children in the sample complained about the teacher to their caregiver, and 17 per cent complained about other children in school. The complaints peak in Grade 5 (11%), where the pupil’s mean age is 12 years old. It is of great concern that physical violence and abuse (e.g. punches, hits) are the most commonly reported reasons given by children for complaints.

13

Being taught by more experienced teachers is associated with a

30%

BETTER CHANCE OF BEING ON TRACK IN THE STUDIES

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

RELATIONSHIP TO COMMUNITY-LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS An almost linear deterioration in the level of non-attendance and educational attainment from the southern to the northern provinces revealed by this analysis reflects an entrenched socio-economic gap between the regions. For example, there is almost a nine-fold difference in the level of absenteeism (i.e. having missed one of the last two days of schooling prior to the interview) between Niassa and Maputo Provinces, and a 14-fold difference between the provinces of Maputo and Zambezia, with the latter having the highest level of reported absenteeism (28%).

Regional differences are highly significant when taking into consideration various family and school socio-economic characteristics.

As a proxy for socio-economic opportunities, regional disparities correlate with access to basic community infrastructure, reflecting an unequal distribution of public investments in basic services and limited labour market opportunities for young people.

14 x

THE PROVINCES OF de Maputo e Zambézia, 14-fold difference in the level of absenteeism between the provinces of Maputo and Zambézia.

Public pre-school education is limited to pilot initiatives in Mozambique. Therefore, it is not surprising that only 5.6 per cent of parents report that their child had access to pre-school. Pre-school attendance increases the odds of children being on track, regardless of their age or sex. However, further multivariate analysis showed that it is not independent from level of household wealth (measured by the asset index) and the corresponding ability to pay for services. It also reflects regional variations, with a much higher coverage in the southern region.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR POLICY AND PRACTICE Results of the 2018 baseline round suggest that there are three main areas of policy action that require systematic and continuous efforts in addressing both the demand and supply sides of education, as outlined below: Improvement of school governance and management > Ensure that the educational directorates maintain regular supervision visits (at least three visits per academic year). > Increase in-job incentives to retain experienced teachers and develop measures that encourage them to take up posts in the most challenging locations.

School climate and communication between parents, the community and schools > Introduce accountability measures that enforce regular direct communication between the school and caregivers. > Enhance the capacity of school councils to further improve communication between schools and communities. > Provide further pedagogical attention and support to girls, especially those in the 11–13 age group who enter puberty, to ensure that they continue to be on track with grade progression. > Provide information to school practitioners and guidance to adolescent girls, especially those who are entering puberty, on good menstrual hygiene management (MHM) to ensure that they have practical knowledge and feel understood and supported within the school environment.

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

> Ensure that boys and girls feel safe and protected in school by reinforcing values of respect, non-violence and responsibility among them as well as among teachers. This will be achieved by providing teachers with relevant training and raising their awareness. In line with the principles of the child’s confidentiality and protection, establish a transparent mechanism of school response to pupils’ complaints.

School financing > Introduce a fair resources allocation formula that supports the schools most in need of resources, particularly those in rural areas and northern provinces, to ensure that children at the highest risk of falling behind have equal access to adequate school conditions. Ensure that resources are also allocated for basic school materials to every child for home and school use (i.e. text books, pencils, notebooks) to improve the quality of instruction as well as homework motivation. > Accelerate the construction or rehabilitation of resilient classrooms with adequate equipment as well as water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities that ensure privacy use (separate facilities for male and female pupils, with doors and locks in place). > Allocate more funds to the Apoio Directo às Escolas (ADE, Direct Support to Schools) to ensure children are provided with learning material, and to school feeding programmes based on geographical targeting, i.e. according to the provinces identified by ALDE as lagging severely behind in education attainment and pupil attendance. > Expand pre-school education, especially by scaling up the accelerated school readiness programme pilot to areas with the lowest levels of attendance and educational attainment.

Recommendation: Accelerate the construction or rehabilitation of resilient classrooms with adequate equipment and WASH facilities that ensure privacy.

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

1.

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE

16

COPYRIGHTS (ORGANIZATION/YEAR/PHOTOGRAPHER: UNICEF/2018/ZLATA BRUCKAUF)

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

INTRODUCTION Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4, target 4.1, calls for “free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes” for girls and boys by 2030; over half of all Mozambican children are currently denied this. The Plano Estratégico da Educação 2020–2029 of Mozambique (the ten-year Education Sector Strategy) includes the completion of quality and inclusive primary education as one of its strategic objectives. Against this background, an intermediate goal is set for 54 per cent of children to complete primary school by 2024, and at least 59 per cent by 2029 (MINEDH, 2020:74). To achieve these targets, the policy process should be supported by robust evidence on children’s pathways in and out of school, and the drivers of educational outcomes at the family, school and community levels.

TWO THIRDS OF ADOLESCENTS

68%

aged between 13–17 years reported not completing primary education.

According to the most recent household budget survey, Inquérito sobre Orcamento Familiar (IOF) 2014/2015, two thirds of adolescents (68%) aged between 13 – 17 years reported not completing primary education (UNICEF, 2020). The Ministry of Education and Human Development (MINEDH) reports similar statistics, indicating that in 2017, only 29 per cent of all pupils had completed primary school and 13 per cent, secondary school (MINEDH, 2019a). Furthermore, in 2015, about 15 per cent of the children aged 6–12 years were out of school (MINEDH, 2016).

According to the most recent census data (2017), however, the scale of problem is much larger, that is, there are around 2.6 million out-of-school children aged 6–12, which is eight times higher than the official statistics. A significant challenge remains in the completion rates of girls, which are consistently below those of boys (MINEDH 2019; 2020a). According to MINEDH (2020a: 64), 94 per cent of girls enrol in primary school but more than half drop out before completing Grade 5.

Reduction of grade retention and dropout are among the education sector’s key priorities. To achieve these goals, MINEDH indicates that further studies are needed to understand the factors associated with dropout and grade retention, as well as gender inequalities and disparities between provinces, and urban and rural schools (ibid., 2020). The Avaliação Longitudinal da Desistência Escolar (ALDE, Longitudinal Assessment of School Dropout in Mozambique) was initiated to provide data and evidence using a dynamic child’s perspective to directly inform the policy process and contribute to strengthen policy support to children’s learning and primary school retention. Further, with its focus on individual children and their journey through primary school, the study aims to identify critical time points when the risks of absenteeism and dropout are the highest, particularly for girls. This will inform age-sensitive policy interventions.

Working towards these overarching goals, ALDE’s objectives are to: > investigate and explain the patterns and drivers of boys’ and girls’ educational outcomes (staying in or dropping out of school, grade progression, etc.) through the child’s perspective and changes in his/her school experience over time – Quantitative component of the study. > explore how different actors envision change, and if they see themselves as agents of this change, by capturing life stories of out-of-school boys and girls, and of those who stay in school (deviant cases), as well as perceptions of key actors – Qualitative component of the study.

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

To achieve these objectives, the ALDE adopts a sequential, explanatory, mixedmethod design (Creswell et al., 2003) with two main components: a longitudinal, nationally representative survey of around 5,400 primary school pupils, followed by qualitative research to complement knowledge and provide further insight and explanations in key identified areas. Four survey rounds have been planned between 2018 and 2021. The qualitative component is envisioned to be conducted between the second and third survey rounds.

BOX 1. KEY TERMS USED

Absenteeism

Among the key indicators for monitoring dropout risk, absenteeism refers to instances when a pupil does not attend school, for any reason (UNICEF and UIS, 2016). In this report, absenteeism refers to the pupil not attending school on the day prior to and on the day of the interview as reported by caregivers.

Chronic

In this report, learners with chronic absenteeism are defined as those who missed more than one academic

absenteeism

term.

Educational

Educational attainment is defined as the highest grade completed within the most advanced level attended in

attainment

the educational system of the country where the education was received (OECD). Based on the Programme for International Pupil Assessment for Development (PISA-D) definition of educational attainment (OECD, 2018), this report uses data from the pupils’ birthdate and current grade to construct an ordinary variable describing grade progression applicable to primary school.

Grade retention

This refers to the practice of requiring that a pupil who has been in a given grade level for a full year remain in that grade level for an additional year (OECD, 2006).

Non-attendance

This is defined as infrequent (non-regular) attendance of the pupils enrolled at the beginning of the school year as reported by child's teacher and caregiver. The reference period is the entire academic year prior the interview.

School dropout

The term ‘school dropout’ is generally used to indicate withdrawal from compulsory education before its completion. This definition is different from the category of ‘out-of-school’ children because it does not include children who had dropped out or children who have not entered school (children who will enter late or will never enter school) (UNICEF and UIS, 2015).

This report presents the results of the first (2018) baseline round of the quantitative component of the study. Given that school dropout is defined as an inter-year change in enrolment, the first results on this indicator are expected to be available after the 2019 round is analysed. Thus, the report discusses pupils’ attendance and educational attainment (grade progression according to age) as the key educational outcomes in focus and investigates their relationship to child-, family- and schoollevel characteristics. Section 1 examines the education sector context and evidence related to primary school absenteeism, attainment and dropout. Section 2 presents the conceptual framework, the study hypothesis and the methodological approach; section 3 presents the magnitude of observed educational outcomes among boys and girls; section 4 investigates the relationship between educational outcomes and socio-economic characteristics of the family; and section 5 discusses the relationship between educational outcomes of interest and school-level factors.

Section 6 discusses the results of multivariate regressions and community-level factors. The report concludes with key policy messages and recommendations.

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Educational attainment (GRADE PROGRESSION ACCORDING TO AGE)

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

1.1 EDUCATIONAL CONTEXT OF MOZAMBIQUE

6TH

BIRTHDAY Primary education in Mozambique is the first level of general education and is compulsory for all children from the year of their sixth birthday.

2004

3.6 MILLION CHILDREN ENROLLED

2016

6 MILLION CHILDREN ENROLLED

The current conditions of the educational context in Mozambique bear the legacy of its colonial past and civil war. Both events left a large imprint on current society, with education paying a heavy toll (Roby, Lambert and Lambert, 2009). School infrastructure was particularly affected, with more than half of the schools (58%), mostly in the central region, destroyed or closed during war times (Van der Berg, da Maia and Burger, 2017). The country was also further challenged by its high exposure to both floods and droughts. Mozambique ranks third among the African countries that are most exposed to weather-related hazards (World Bank, 2019) and suffers from periodic cyclones, droughts, floods and related epidemics. Impacts on people and the economy continue to be significant, as are impacts on access to education and its outcomes.3 The school network has witnessed a remarkable expansion since the end of the civil war and the signing of the Peace Agreement in 1992 (World Bank, 2005).

The National Development Strategy (2015–2035) acknowledges the demand for schooling and stresses the need for increased investment in the education sector.

Furthermore, Mozambique has also shown a concrete commitment to improving the education sector in the last 15 years. Since 2004, a set of reforms has been introduced, especially in primary education, prioritized by the Mozambique Education Strategic Plan 2012–2016 (continued into the Mozambique Education Strategic Plan 2016–2019) and by the recently approved 2020–2029 Strategic Plan for Education (MINEDH, 2020a). This includes the abolition of school tuition fees, the updating of the curricula, modernization of teacher’s courses and increased recruitment of new teachers, as well as provision of direct support to schools and free textbooks. The construction of new schools has been another structural feature of the process, with the number of primary schools doubling in the 15 years between 2014 and 2018 (ibid., 2019:2).

Primary education in Mozambique is the first level of general education and is compulsory for all children from the year of their sixth birthday. It lasts seven years and is divided in two cycles: EP 1, which includes Grades 1 to 5, and EP2, which includes Grades 6 and 7. This structural consideration of the system is relevant, because there are fewer schools available for the 2nd cycle (8,525) than for the schools available for the 1st cicle (13,216) (Annual School Census, 2019: 13).

As with other African countries where similar policies were introduced, positive results were quick to follow in Mozambique. A significant rise in primary school enrolment has been registered, and the phased and monitored implementation of direct support to schools allowed for this impact to be continued over several years. Numbers rose from 3.6 million children enrolled in primary education in 2004 to over 6 million children enrolled in 2016. Yet the net enrolment rate for primary education in 2018 was 83.6 per cent, with 105.2 per cent for EP1 and only 24.4 per cent for EP24 (Relatório de Desempenho, 2015–2019:14).

Almost 4,000 classrooms and 400,000 pupils were affected by the most recent Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which hit the country earlier this year (UNICEF).

3

It is important to note here how the net school enrolment rate is not homogeneous across the two cycles of primary education. A shift towards having a single primary education cycle including only six grades should be introduced with the new education system expected for 2021/2022, and this is expected to “correct” the structural bottleneck in primary education.

4

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

To allow for these developments, a high share of the state budget has been earmarked for education. When compared to the average among low-income and sub-Saharan African countries, Mozambique has spent more on education as a share of total government expenditure and GDP (UNICEF, 2018). In the 2019 budget proposal, the education sector was allocated MZN56.7 billion (US$ 930.4 million5), representing the largest-ever nominal allocation to the sector (UNICEF, 2019: 14).

General education (i.e. primary and secondary education) was budgeted to receive MT 47.5 billion. The ratio of general to higher education is 84 per cent to 16 per cent (ibid: 6). In this context, primary education received the largest share of the education budget, which is line with the global recognition that the foundational years are of critical importance for developing better outcomes later in life (Cunha and Heckman, 2010).

The ratio of general to higher education is

84% GENERAL EDUCATION

Mozambique’s national education strategy makes a specific reference to the reduction of gender disparities and to the provision of an education that guarantees inclusion and equity in access to, and retention in, school for all (Education Strategic Plan 2012–2019: 4). An improvement can be observed in the Gender Parity Index (GPI) in school enrolment (ratio of female-to-male value), from 0.83 in 2004 to 0.93 in 2018 (World Bank, 2018); i.e. in the same school year, for every 100 boys enrolled, 92 girls are enrolled.

All these positive developments provided opportunities to children who were previously not in school. However, eliminating fees proved to be insufficient to improve educational attainment (Abuya, Oketch and Musyoka, 2013) and ensure gender equality in all educational dimensions. Despite encouraging figures that show progress on closing the gender gap in accessing primary education between 2000 and 2007, gender disparity in attainment persisted. As highlighted in the MINEDH, Revisão de Políticas Educacionais de Moçambique 2019, while 94 per cent of girls in Mozambique enrolled in primary school, more than half dropped out

by Grade 5; only 11 per cent continued on to study at the secondary level, and just 1 per cent continued on to college (MINEDH, 2019a: 57; 2020).

Pupil absenteeism is another persistent problem of the current system. Although nationwide absenteeism has decreased in the last five years, a recent World Bank study reported that more than half of enrolled pupils were absent on the day of the study visit (World Bank, 2019). The northern and central regions, which include the poorest provinces of Niassa, Cabo Delgado, Tete, Sofala, Nampula and Zambézia, are critically affected. Regional disparities are also highly pronounced in school retention: the dropout rate ranges from 3.4 per cent in Maputo to 16 per cent in Niassa (EMIS/EducStat 2016). These disparities are not surprising given the unequal distribution of educational funding between some northern and southern provinces (UNICEF, 2016; 2018; Van der Berg, da Maia and Burger, 2017). Structural disparities are closely linked to an unequal distribution of wealth (as measured by the asset index): children from wealthier families remain in school longer (Van der Berg, da Maia and Burger, 2017). Thus, school dropout is complex and a hard-toovercome challenge for the Mozambican education system (Mambo et al., 2019; de Walque and Valente, 2016).

5

Based on the average 2019 exchange rate, USD 1 = 60.9 Meticals

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2018 100 BOYS ENROLLED

92 GIRLS ENROLLED

16% HIGHER EDUCATION

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

The following section provides an overview of the national and international literature that shows the multiplicity and intersection of drivers of school absenteeism and dropout. It is on this basis that the following analysis is developed in later sections of the report.

1.2 EVIDENCE ON FACTORS AFFECTING PUPILS’ ABSENTEEISM AND DROPOUT A regional review conducted in Eastern and Southern Africa and national evidence indicate that drivers of absenteeism and school dropout are multifaceted and can relate to the various domains of a child’s development. This section presents an overview of the most relevant findings from both quantitative and qualitative studies, and academic and grey literature available to date.

12% OF GIRLS UNDER THE AGE OF 15 BECOME PREGNANT IN MOZAMBIQUE the likelihood of school dropout increases by 29 per cent among pregnant girls relative to their female peers.

1.2.1 CHILD-RELATED FACTORS

Evidence suggests that a child’s sex, age and socio-economic disadvantages are factors affecting his or her ability to attend school (Hunt, 2008). The review below discusses some of the findings.

GENDER National data from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that slightly over 12 per cent of girls under the age of 15 become pregnant in Mozambique (WHO, 2013). Using data from the Mozambican Household Budget Survey (IOF 2014/15), Mambo et al. (2019) examine the effect of early pregnancy on girls’ dropout. The study shows that, on average, the likelihood of school dropout increases by 29 per cent among pregnant girls relative to their female peers. More specifically, “the probability of dropping out from school increases immensely if the girl is less than 13 years old (about 82%) and becomes 34 per cent for girls in secondary school” (ibid.:12). This is in line with previous quantitative research that also identified adolescence as a critical age and turning point for girls’ school attendance across the country (Heltberg, Simler and Tarp, 2003: 13; World Bank, 2005).

Regarding progression to secondary school, a multi-country survey in the East South Africa Region (ESAR) also shows how Mozambican girls are less likely than boys to progress (UNICEF and UIS, 2015). These findings resonate with a survey conducted in Kenya (Lloyd, Mensch and Clark, 2000), which highlighted how the gender gap emerges during the last years of primary school when girls experience puberty and become adolescents. They become “particularly vulnerable at that point within the school system because of widely held negative attitudes about adolescent girls. At this age, a supportive learning environment for girls could make a critical difference in subsequent school retention” (ibid.). Similarly, mixed-method research conducted in Rwanda shows that whereas boys under the age of 13 are more likely than girls to drop out, the odds reverse with increased age, which has drastic long-term impacts: Dropout for younger boys tends to disrupt contributes to over-ageing, whereas dropout represents an end point in their education, enrolment of boys and girls in the upper education (UNICEF and MINEDUC, 2017: vii).

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their education and for girls more often which is evident in years of secondary

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

Qualitative evidence supports these arguments while providing findings with further depth and comparative scope. A qualitative study conducted in Ghana, Kenya and Mozambique (Parkes and Heslop, 2013) revealed that girls face a wide range of barriers to their schooling in all three countries. Some of the main barriers are directly linked to established household gender roles (e.g. household chores, caring for siblings), poverty (parents’ inability to pay for school fees, need to work on the farm) and issues related to sexuality and gender violence (early pregnancy and marriage). Based on qualitative findings of a research study carried out in Sofala Province, Roby, Lambert and Lambert (2009) also highlight that, while various factors can impact all children’s education, each of these factors may have a more negative impact on girls. Their research clearly shows how some “caregivers did not believe that education would make a difference for the future of the children, especially the girls’ caregivers” because girls have more household and caring responsibilities. Furthermore, parents and caregivers also tend to keep girls more at home, “fearing the dangers involved in the distance to school or the bad influences of school” (ibid.: 350). In addition, results of a mix-method baseline research in Mozambique also record accounts of how girls are greatly affected by instances of sexual harassment, abuse and punishment at school, which affects their attendance and dropout rates (Parkes and Heslop, 2011).

... parents and caregivers tend to keep girls more at home, “fearing the dangers involved in the distance to school or the bad influences of school”.

These vulnerabilities highlight the role played by specific points of transition in a child’s life. Studies have indeed highlighted a number of connections between girls’ education and rites of passage or ceremonies that mark a transition from one stage of her life to another. These ceremonies and their often-lengthy preparation may overlap with the school calendar and can increase absenteeism and the possibility of dropout. In parts of Guinea, for example, these ceremonies were sometimes performed during the school term and could cause absenteeism from school for periods ranging from one week to one month, sometimes resulting in school withdrawal. An intensive school-based survey undertaken at the school and community levels, using a combination of both quantitative and qualitative research tools, has shown “how the impact was perceived to be greater for girls’ schooling because it is often considered shameful for them to return to school after initiation, unlike the case of boys” (Colclough, Rose and Tembon, 2000: 22).

This can be explained, as discussed by Nekatibeb (2002) in the case of Ethiopia, by the discrepancy between the schools’ and the families’ perceptions of girls who undergo initiation ceremonies. Following these ceremonies, while teachers in particular and school communities in general still perceive pupils as children, their families perceive them as having become adults.

AGE AND GRADE RETENTION High grade retention and high repetition rates can also be significant factors discouraging the continuation of education. In ESAR countries, retention during primary school years is a persistent problem (UNESCO and UNICEF, 2015; Momo et al., 2018).

retention during primary school

Using event history analysis in a study of urban schooling, Roderick (1994) found years is a persistent problem that repeating a grade from kindergarten to Grade 6 is associated with a substantial increase in the likelihood of dropping out, even after controlling for differences in background and post-retention grades and attendance. Mixed-method research in

23

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

The survival rate to grade 5 in countries such as Mozambique for pupils who were over-age by two or more years was around

15%

LOWER THAN FOR PUPILS WHO WERE AT THE APPROPRIATE AGE FOR THEIR GRADE

Rwanda has also shown how grade retention influences school dropout because it results in many pupils being over-age6 for their grade (MINEDUC/UNICEF, 2017).

Research on the United Republic of Tanzania shows a higher likelihood of over-age children (by two or more years) dropping out towards the end of the primary school cycle than children who are at the appropriate age for their grade (McAlpine, 2009).

The survival rate to grade 5 in countries such as Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe for pupils who were over-age by two or more years was around 15 per cent lower than for pupils who were at the appropriate age for their grade (EPDC, 2009, cited in UNICEF and UIS, 2015).7 PRE-SCHOOL EDUCATION Quantitative evidence from low-income countries indicates that children entering primary school after a successful pre-school education programme demonstrate better test-score performance, greater class participation and effort, and higher school completion rates (Berlinski, Galiani and Gertler, 2009; Grantham-McGregor et al., 2007). A recent impact evaluation of the Accelerated School Readiness (ASR) programme in Mozambique (UNICEF, 2020) showed substantial and sustained differences in pupils’ achievement at the end of Grade 1 as a result of exposure to the ASR programme. Yet, the Government’s supply of pre-schools is inadequate across the ESAR. Furthermore, the uneven and unregulated supply is dominated by private providers and remains the preserve of privileged urban elites (UNICEF and UIS, 2015). Earlier studies showed that only 4 per cent of children are enrolled in pre-school in Mozambique, and most come from affluent, urban populations (Martinez, Naudeau and Pereira, 2012).

1.2.2 HOUSEHOLD SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

A review of studies conducted in developing countries show agreement that levels of dropout and high school absenteeism from primary school can be explained children entering primary school primarily by the socio-economic status of the family and household (Levy, 1971; after a successful pre-school education programme demonstrate better test-score Sommers, 2005; Roby, Lambert and Lambert, 2009; Casey, 2014). SDG 4 (Quality performance, greater class participation education) affirms that, in developing countries, children in the poorest households and effort, and higher school are four times more likely to be out of school than those in well-off households. completion rates.

They are less likely to be attending school, and those who do, are more likely to repeat grades and abandon school before the completion of a full cycle of primary education (UNICEF and UIS, 2015). One of the explanations is the limited time spent by parents from lower socio-economic backgrounds in supporting their child’s learning compared to families with a higher socio-economic status, often due to other conflicting demands on their time. Statistical analysis has showed how limited parental involvement can negatively impact school attendance and result in lower academic performance and eventually school dropout (Ho Sui-Chu and Willms, 1996; Jeynes, 2003). Furthermore, for children from poorer backgrounds, the pressure to withdraw from school increases as they get older, particularly as the opportunity cost of their time increases due to economic burdens in the household (Hunt, 2008: 8; Baiden et al., 2019).

“Over-age pupils” are those who are older than the official school-age range for the educational programme that they are enrolled in. – UIS-UNESCO Glossary, http://uis.unesco.org/en/glossary

6

In primary school in Mozambique, the cycles are Grades 1–3, 4–5 (both EP1) and 6–7 (EP2). Progression within cycles is automatic, but between cycles, it is dependent on passing national exams (MINEDH, 2012: 13).

7

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

A quantitative study conducted in the Sofala Province of Mozambique shows a correlation between household income and enrolment, and between household income and child attendance (Roby, Lambert and Lambert, 2009:346). The study shows a statistically significant difference in level of school attendance between low-income and wealthier families. Yet, compared to enrolment rates, attendance rates were lower for all income levels. Indeed, the study found that even with a higher income, school attendance can be a challenge due to other factors involved.

Among these factors, community infrastructure is a salient determinant.

Quantitative evidence in research conducted by Ortiz et al. (2015) in Brazil, for instance, shows how, when not connected to the water and sewerage system, household members, in particular children, can be more prone to the contagion of water-related and -transmitted diseases that prevent them from attending school. In these cases, children may also end up spending more time collecting and carrying water and managing water storage. “It is through these health and Access to water and sanitation leisure time use changes that access to water and sanitation services impacts the services impacts the educational educational attainment of children” (ibid.: 1).

attainment of children.

CHILDREN’S WORK AT HOME OR OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSEHOLD Socio-economic stress also increases the family’s reliance on the child’s time and labour contribution to support household livelihoods. In a sample of 60 developing countries, pupils had a high on-attendance rate because of work (UNICEF and UIS, 2015). Sabates et al. (2010) draw on quantitative data analysis from African countries to show how rural households rely on children’s help during harvesting times. Because seasonal work often clashes with school timetables, this may lead to periodic withdrawals from school, resulting in high absenteeism, especially for boys (ibid.). Drawing on qualitative evidence from Mozambique and the time spent on housework (Roby, Lambert and Lambert (2009: 346) argue that twice as many girls as boys are likely to not attend.

They also show how, in exceptional circumstances and unforeseen events such as environmental hazards, families adopt alternative coping strategies to survive, for instance, recurring to the help of children in small income-generation activities such as selling coal or wood (ibid.). Here, the priority for families from the lower socio-economic strata is to provide food, with education becoming less important.

Hence, environmental stressors and climate change further exacerbate poverty and household vulnerabilities, resulting in school disruption and a detrimental longterm impact on learning outcomes (UNICEF SEER, 2011).

VALUE ATTRIBUTED TO EDUCATION BY PARENTS AND THE COMMUNITY The low value given to education in the community and society is another major factor affecting school attendance and dropout in Mozambican schools (Nivagara et al., 2016:41). Parents’ and caregivers’ perceptions of how education can influence life and work opportunities are factors that influence the decision to withdraw early or keep the child in school. Similarly, quantitative evidence shows how the likelihood to access secondary school and the perceived ability

25

the priority for families from the lower socio-economic strata is to provide food, with education becoming less important.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

of the child to make progress through the grades can affect the priority placed on schooling within the household (Sabates et al., 2010: 13).

The parents’ level of education is commonly a factor predicting the role that they play and the level of their involvement in the education of their children.

For example, research on Rwanda has shown that parents with higher levels of education are more likely to send their child to pre-school (MINEDUC/UNICEF, 2017:116). Data from Mozambique confirm these findings: among children whose caregivers had completed at least primary school (Grade 6 or higher), 83 per cent attended school, compared to only 57 per cent of the children whose caregivers had not completed any schooling (Roby, Lambert and Lambert, 2009: 347). Similar findings also emerged from a more recent qualitative study conducted in schools from northern, central and southern Mozambique (Nivagara et al., 2016). The study shows how educated household heads make efforts to keep children in school and help those who have dropped out to return.

THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION is one of the critical factors impacting a child and a family’s decision to attend or leave school.

1.2.3 QUALITY OF EDUCATION AND SCHOOL-LEVEL DETERMINANTS

The quality of education is one of the critical factors impacting a child and a family’s decision to attend or leave school. Structural and material factors (e.g. classroom’s conditions, learning material, water and sanitation facilities), quality of teaching and teachers’ ability to equally engage and motivate pupils, as well as language and pre-school attendance are some of the main determinants for school attendance and attainment identified in the literature.

SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE AND RESOURCES The literature analysing the relationship between the level of school’s resources and the pupil’s achievement dates back to the pioneering work by Coleman et al.

(1966). Already in the 1980s, Heyneman and Loxley (1983) argued that, despite a substantial variation in school quality, the impact of school and the quality of the teachers on pupils’ performance are comparatively greater than the family’s socio-economic status in lower-income countries. They suggest that “the poorer the national setting in economic terms, the more powerful [the school and teacher quality effect] appears to be” (1983: 1184).

In many ESAR countries, there is a general lack of resources and adequate conditions for learning in rural schools, which quantitative and qualitative evidence shows has a negative impact on school attendance (UNICEF and UIS, 2015). Indeed, limited resources translate into over-crowded structures offering mediocre to poor facilities. In these cases, there is a lack of basic features (e.g. chairs, blackboards) and/or resources such as teaching material (Ravishankar et al., 2010), as well as of appropriate sanitation facilities (Jasper, 2012).

Recent attention has also been drawn to possible linkages between poor sanitation in schools and low attendance rates among post-pubescent girls

26

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

(UNICEF and CISM, 2019). In Zambia, the dropout rate between Grades 1 and 9 for girls increases exponentially from about 1 to 7.4 per cent. Here, there is a strong correlation with the availability or lack of appropriate (i.e. separated by sex) sanitation in schools (UNICEF, 2014). Using qualitative data from girls and teachers, research in Kenya clearly suggests that improved access could address some key emotional and practical problems underlying girls’ absenteeism (Jewitt and Ryley, 2014). In these cases, absenteeism can also be specific to menstruation, as reported by post-pubescent schoolgirls in the United Republic of Tanzania and South Africa (Sommer, 2010; Abrahams et al., 2006). The combination of poor household resources and inappropriate water and sanitation facilities at school can prevent girls from attending during their menstrual period.

QUALITY OF TEACHERS: QUALIFICATIONS, EXPERIENCE AND BEHAVIOUR IN SCHOOL Drawing on an analysis of the cumulative effects of teachers on pupils’ academic achievement over grade levels, Sanders and Rivers (1996) have argued for the importance of ensuring high quality and well-prepared teachers for all pupils, regardless of race, ethnicity or income. Indeed, research demonstrates a significant correlation between pupil academic achievement and teacher quality (Sanders and Rivers, 1996). Yet the Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey conducted by the World Bank (2018; 2019) on quality performance in Mozambique’s primary schools demonstrated that teacher performance was low despite the available facilities and materials (such as toilets, textbooks and blackboards), which was relatively high compared to other African countries where the same survey was conducted.8 The SDI highlighted how the biggest challenge in Mozambique was teachers’ low level of knowledge of the content they need to teach and their low pedagogical skills.

The combination of poor household resources and inappropriate water and sanitation facilities at school can prevent girls from attending during their menstrual period.

In addition, teachers’ absenteeism rate (45%) was also found to negatively impact pupils’ learning outcomes and to increase pupils’ absenteeism rate (Molina and Martin, 2015; Jarousse et al., 2009). Studies assessing the quality of education in primary schools in Mozambique through national surveys (sample of 176 schools) have also indicated that greater efforts are needed (Passos et al., 2005; Lauchande et al., 2013). Within this scenario, families may not see the value or advantage of sending their children to school.

In addition to training and qualification levels, according to a cross-country analysis of teachers’ experience in different African countries, it emerged that vast teaching experience had a positive impact on their teaching and therefore on pupils’ educational attainment (Jarousse et al., 2009). Yet, in the last two decades, African countries have seen the recruitment of large numbers of young, inexperienced teachers without providing the needed support to counterbalance any lack of experience (Lauwerier and Akkari, 2015:5). Policy analysis has indeed shown how professional training has been among the most neglected elements of recent policies in different countries of the continent (Jarousse et al., 2009:175).

O inquérito dos Indicadores de Prestação de Serviços (SDI) foi lançado em 2010 e realizado em Moçambique e em oito outros países africanos: República Unida da Tanzânia (2010, 2014), Senegal (2010), Quénia (2012), Nigéria (2013), Togo (2013), Uganda (2013), Níger (2015) e Madagáscar (2016). O estudo inclui um conjunto de indicadores que mede a capacidade e o esforço de professores e directores, assim como a disponibilidade de factores e recursos chave que contribuem para o funcionamento de uma escola. Estas métricas permitem às autoridades educativas e às escolas identificar lacunas e acompanhar os progressos ao longo do tempo.

8

27

TEACHERS’ ABSENTEEISM RATE the priority for families from the lower socio-economic strata is to provide food, with education becoming less important.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

SCHOOL MANAGEMENT AND SUPERVISION Research focusing on school management has stressed the relevance of good governance and regular monitoring in relation to reducing pupils’ and teachers’ chronic non-attendance. As emphasized below, the supervision of schools by the education authorities can be an effective tool to monitor and improve education quality. Post-colonial trends towards school autonomy in African countries have advocated for “a profound shift in the role of school supervision from exercising administrative control to demanding accountability and offering support”(De Grauwe, 2007:709). School supervision services can be broadly classified into two types: (i) those that focus on teachers, who are responsible for the quality of the education provided; and (ii) those that focus on the school, which is the central element impacting the quality of education through its overall functioning and the achievement of positive interactions between the principal, teachers and parents.

Furthermore, supervisors, in their role of ministry officials, are intermediaries between the Ministry of Education and the schools (ibid.: 110).

"...the supervision of schools by the education authorities can be an effective Yet, the low performance of supervisors is of concern in many African countries, tool to monitor and improve education which is principally linked to the poor resources allocated for a very demanding quality..." and multifaceted mandate. As a result, there is a limited number of supervision visits and little time spent in schools, poor attention given to the follow-up to supervision, and a concentration of time and efforts on administrative activities rather than teacher support. Furthermore, schools located in remote rural areas are often neglected (ibid.).

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

Despite progress made in enrolment since 2004, the education system faces profound challenges of pupil retention and primary school completion with identified gender disparities in outcomes.

Reviewed evidence indicates the following factors affecting pupils’ dropout, absenteeism and educational attainment: >

Children’s gendered family commitments and responsibilities (e.g. household and care work, agricultural work and socio-cultural practices) explain highly gendered school attainment outcomes.

>

Poverty drives demand for the child’s contribution to livelihood activities and increases the risks of a disruption in a child’s schooling.

>

Teachers’ characteristics, i.e. the level of their training and experience, as well as school management and language of instruction play important roles in grade retention and other school outcomes.

>

Adequate water supply and sanitation can have a favourable impact on school retention while a remote school location is a potential deterrent, especially for girls.

>

A successful pre-school education programme improves educational attainment and is associated with higher completion rates.

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

2.

FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

30

COPYRIGHTS (ORGANIZATION/YEAR/PHOTOGRAPHER: UNICEF/2018/ZLATA BRUCKAUF)

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

2.1 THE SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL MODEL The development of ALDE survey and its analysis are grounded in the framework adapted from Bronfenbrenner’s Socio-Ecological Model (1979). It focuses on the individual child and his/her outcomes rooted in four hierarchical levels of influence: individual (child outcomes); family resources and interpersonal relationships; community and neighbourhood; and the enabling environment. It is an analytical tool that extends beyond the sectoral boundaries of primary education. The emphasis here is on public actions to achieve better educational outcomes through the interlinked influence of family, community, school policies and institutions.

Figure 1 schematically presents the hierarchical model of educational outcomes and their drivers. Basic proficiency levels in literacy and numeracy are among the most important learning outcomes, emphasized in the SDG 4 framework. Although the 2018 ALDE survey does not measure achievement, it has been included in the framework to reflect the cumulative and continuous nature of all educational outcomes. Achievement is influenced directly and indirectly by many factors, including pupils’ motivation for learning, socio-economic status of the family, and the quality and quantity of learning. Pupils’ absenteeism and educational attainment (grade progression according to age) are the outcomes of focus in this report. Poor school attendance increases the risk of falling behind in academic work, leading to grade repetition. This in turn can directly contribute to school dropout.

Child development is rooted in four hierarchical levels of influence: individual (child outcomes); family resources and interpersonal relationships; community and neighbourhood; and the enabling environment.

The ecological model and the evidence reviewed informed understanding of how measures of absenteeism, educational attainment and dropout relate to various child characteristics (e.g. sex), family conditions (e.g. poverty), school and classroom characteristics and practices (e.g. school councils), as well as the wider community as represented in the sample. At each level of interconnected ecosystems, there are factors that are facilitators of or barriers to pupils’ engagement and disengagement with schooling, hence educational outcomes such as absenteeism and/or dropout (Figure 1).

The framework clearly underlines the different domains of ALDE indicators. The variety of factors hindering school attendance and educational attainment presented above has been carefully considered in the definition of the research hypothesis.

The detailed list of indicators for each level of influence to be tested was identified with key stakeholders during the methodological workshop, using a literature review as a basis, as follows: > Indicators related to the child: sex, health, level of previous school experience, psychosocial components, friends, relationship with adults including teachers, and child labour. > Indicators related to the family: level of education and support of parents, family structure, level of economic stability, resilience to shocks; > Indicators related to class: level of teachers’ qualifications, teachers’ presence in the school, class size, peer influences, and monitoring procedures for absenteeism; > Indicators related to school: quality of teaching, inclusion, material resources and school management; these are in line with the concepts of the school environment, policies and practices used in the Programme for International Pupil Assessment for Development (PISA-D) questionnaires. > Indicators related to the community environment: presence and implementation of policies and interventions for children (social action, education, access to healthcare), geographical location, conflict, and natural disasters and emergencies.

32

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

FIGURE 1. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESES

IMPACT. Students’ achievement (e.g. literacy) OUTCOMES Grade progression Educational Attainment

Irregular attendance and absenteeism

Dropout

FAMILY-level determinants:

Supply for education

Socio-economic status (SES), care duties, parents’ aspirations, distance to school etc

Demand fot education

CHILD-level determinants: Age, gender, health, language spoken at home, etc.

SCHOOL-level determinants:

Quality of teaching, inclusion, material resources, school management

COMMUNITY-level determinants:

Access of infrastruture and services, social norms and culture

For more details on the survey questionnaire content, see Annex I.

2.2 SURVEY DESIGN AND SAMPLING ALDE is a longitudinal, nationally representative survey targeting children in primary school years from Grade 1–7. Following the sequential explanatory approach (Creswell et al., 2003), it is designed as a mixed-method study with a qualitative explanatory component following the first two rounds of the survey to complement and enhance findings. The qualitative component will draw on the results of the first 2018 rounds, identifying key themes and questions for exploration. This study covers all provinces of Mozambique, both rural and urban areas, allowing to capture geographic, cultural and socio-economic differences within the country that may have an influence on the different levels of dropout.

The following section will present the sampling methodology, questionnaire content, key outcome measures and contextual variables. It will also briefly present the characteristics of the sample.

2.3 SAMPLING STRATEGY The best sample design for a particular project is one that provides levels of sampling accuracy that are acceptable in terms of the main aims of the project while limiting costs, and logistic and procedural demands to manageable levels. Based on the study objectives, the sampling strategy followed the following criteria: > The target population are pupils from Grades 1 to 7 attending registered government primary schools. > The sampling should conform to the accepted rules of scientific probability sampling: i.e. the members of the defined target population should have a known and non-zero probability of being selected for the sample so that any potential for bias in sample estimates due to variations from an equal probability of selection method (EPSEM) could be addressed through the use of appropriate sampling weights.

33

The target population are pupils from

GRADES 1 TO 7

ATTENDING REGISTERED GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SCHOOLS

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

> The number of pupils selected to participate in the data collection in each selected school should be set at a level that would maximize the validity of the within-school data collection for the pupil. > The number of schools selected should take into consideration the administrative and financial resources available for data collection.

Moreover, the sampling strategy also took into consideration that: (i) the study is longitudinal and that some level of attrition is expected (Gustavson et al., 2012, Watson and Wooden, 2009); (ii) it aims at being representative only at the national and regional (Northern, Central and Southern) levels (and not at the provincial level); and (iii) the higher-level intra-class correlation, or p (rho) is an indicator of the proportion of variation out of the total variation among schools.

Based on the above criteria, a two-stage cluster sampling was employed. Probability proportion to size (PPS) is a sampling procedure used to ensure that each enrolled pupil at school has an equal probability of being selected.

SAMPLING FRAME The sample is stratified by school type as defined by the MINEDH. PPS is applied in each one of the strate, also as defined by the MINEDH. Table 1 presents the distribution of the schools and pupils by three school categories: small schools (=<500 pupils) located in remote rural areas; medium-size schools (no. of pupils 500–1,500) located in the district capital and surroundings; and large schools (>= 1,500) located in urban areas. Although 74 per cent of the schools are small, they represent only 38 per cent of the pupil population.

The sample size of 5400 pupils and 60 schools across all provinces (see Figure 2 for FIGURE 2. SCHOOL SAMPLE ACROSS PROVINCES (2018)

TABLE 1. TARGET POPULATION

TANZANIA

Total NIASSA

CABO DELGADO Pemba

LICHINGA

=<500 pupils

MALAWI

NAMPULA NAMPULA

TETE

TETE

Nacala

500–1,500 pupils

ZAMBEZIA

No. of schools

No. of pupils

12,649

5,900,196

100%

100%

9,229

2,254,706

74%

38%

2,580

1,939,549

21%

33% Source: ALDE 2018

MANICA

QUELIMANE

SOFALA CHIMOIO

BEIRA

INHAMBANE GAZA

SOUTH AFRICA

MAPUTO

school distribution among the provinces) was estimated taking into consideration the intra-class correlation of 0.35.

Schools were the first-stage units to be selected, and pupils within schools were the second-stage units. In each school, cohorts of 90 pupils were randomly selected from three different grades (30 pupils per grade). In each school, grade 1 pupils were selected to ensure that a cohort of 30 pupils would be followed from the first grade to the final grade of the primary education system. The other two grades were selected proportionally (see Annex II, Table 2 for grade distribution). This would have 34

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

a sampling accuracy equivalent to a simple random sample of 17 pupils9 (a 7.5% sampling error with a 95% confidence interval).

The design effect is around 32.1. The value of the design effect (Kish, 1965: 257) for a two-stage cluster sample design depends on, for a given cluster size, the value of the coefficient of intra-class correlation.

The sampling size of the ALDE survey was very close to the planned sampling frame. Table 2 presents the sample sizes for core target groups.

TABLE 2. ACHIEVED SAMPLE SIZES

Interviewee School principal

Planned

Achieved

Sex

No.

No.

Female

60

60

20.6%

At least 180

480

44.4%

Pupils

5,400

5,364

46.5%

Caregiver

5,400

5,145

At least 60

72

Class teacher

Community leaders

5.0% Source: ALDE 2018

Overall, given that the sample was based on primary school years rather than age,

FIGURE 3. TOTAL NO. OF PUPILS, BY SEX AND AGE AGE

NUMBER OF PUPILS GIRLS

BOYS

The size of the simple random sample is usually around 400 pupils in order to obtain 95 per cent confidence limits of p + 5 per cent. The ‘effective sample size’ (Kish, 1965: 259) for a given two-stage cluster sample is equal to the size of the simple random sample, whose level of sampling accuracy is measured by the variance of the sample mean, which is equal to the sampling accuracy of the given two-stage cluster.

9

35

Source: ALDE 2018

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

The sample includes

941 ADOLESCENTS

OF SECONDARY SCHOOL AGE (13–18) and 15 young people aged 19–25 who are still attending primary school.

the survey achieved a wide age distribution of children who are still in the primary school (Figure 3) Specifically, the sample includes 941 adolescents of secondary school age (13–18) and 15 young people aged 19–25 who are still attending primary school (see Table 3 by grade). There is a reduced sex balance for this age group, indicating that a lower percentage of girls still attend primary school at this age. This may suggest a greater social acceptance, and hence greater odds that adolescent boys will continue schooling despite life events holding them back a grade. In contrast, the stigma for teenage girls, who may have experienced pregnancy or be involved in premature marital relationships, might hinder them from attending or going back to school after a longer period of absence. Given the statistics on the sex composition of secondary

TABLE 3. SAMPLE OF CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE SURVEY, BY AGE AND SEX CHILD'S AGE

MALE

FEMALE

TOTAL

No. of pupils

Percentage of pupils whose age corresponds to the expected grade (%)

No. of pupils

Percentage of pupils whose age corresponds to the expected grade (%)

No.

5

28

41.4

41

58.6

70

6

298

48.5

316

51.5

614

7

285

51.0

274

49.0

559

8

351

52.9

312

47.1

663

9

281

53.0

249

47.0

530

10

448

55.8

355

44.2

803

11

341

51.8

317

48.2

658

12

226

51.1

216

48.9

442

13

163

50.2

162

49.8

325

14

154

59.0

107

41.0

261

15

113

66.5

57

33.5

170

16

69

68.3

32

31.7

101

17

36

75.0

12

25.0

48

18

24

66.7

12

33.3

36

19

7

77.8

2

22.2

9

21

3

75.0

1

25.0

4

25

1

50.0

1

50.0

2

5–7

612

49

631

51

1,243

8–9

632

53

561

47

1,193

10

448

56

355

44

803

11–12

567

52

533

48

1,100

13–18

559

59

382

41

941

19–25

11

73

4

27

15

Total

2,829

53

2,466

47

52,945

Source: ALDE 2018

36

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

schools, the potential explanation of more girls progressing to secondary school at the appropriate age seems unlikely.

2.4 OUTCOME INDICATORS AND CONTEXTUAL VARIABLES According to the conceptual framework, this report presents indicators related to two conceptual constructs: pupils’ absenteeism (non-attendance) and educational attainment (the measure of age appropriate grade progression).

"...this report presents indicators related to two conceptual constructs: pupils’ absenteeism (non-attendance) and educational attainment (the measure of age appropriate grade progression)."

PUPILS’ NON-ATTENDANCE AND ABSENTEEISM Data on pupils’ absenteeism were collected through questions answered by teachers and caregivers with the objective of data triangulation.

NON-ATTENDANCE Both teachers and caregivers were asked, “Has the child attended school this year” and to choose among attending ‘frequently’, ‘infrequently’ or ‘never’. This indicator reflects teachers’ and caregivers’ overall perception of the child’s presence in school throughout the year. The responses were coded as a dummy variable with 0 corresponding to ‘yes’ and 1 corresponding to ‘yes, frequently’ and ‘infrequently or never attending’.

ABSENTEEISM Caregivers were also asked if the child attended school on the day prior to and the day of the interview; with a shorter recall period, this can be considered a more robust measure of a child’s absenteeism. However, after the data management procedures, only responses from the caregivers, as opposed to teachers, were considered valid for further analysis. The survey also uses a constructed variable with one of the categories recorded as missing school on both days.

CHRONIC ABSENTEEISM The teachers and caregivers were asked about the duration of school attendance among children who do not attend school frequently, choosing among ‘one academic term or less’, ‘more than one but less than two academic terms’, and ‘more than two school terms’.

ATTENDANCE SCORE Attendance score is constructed using observational spot-checks conducted by enumerators for each child through a span of several days. Attendance score is defined as the share of days in attendance. The score lies within a 0–1 interval with a value of 1 if the child was in school, and 0 if the child was not.

Similar attendance scores were constructed for children’s teachers and school principals.

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Based on the PISA-D definition of educational attainment (OECD, 2018), data from children’s birthdate and current grade were used to construct an ordinary variable describing the grade progression applicable to primary school according to the following categories: > On track. Pupils are in the expected grade, given their birthdate; i.e. they started school on schedule (baseline of seven years old in Grade 1) and have not repeated a grade.

37

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

> One year below the expected grade. These pupils have usually repeated a grade or were out of school for a prolonged period. > Two or three years below the expected grade. In most cases, these pupils have repeated two or three grades, but some may have started late or simply faded in and out of school for a year. > Enrolled in school but four or five grades below the expected grade. In most cases, these pupils will have repeated more than three times, but some may have started late or simply dropped out of school for one year or more.

CONSTRUCTED VARIABLES

The ALDE 2018 survey collected data related to family, school and community characteristics.

The ALDE 2018 survey collected data related to family, school and community characteristics. Some variables were constructed so as to measure conceptual items that cannot be observed directly. Here, the approaches validated in the literature and other large-scale surveys were followed.

THE FAMILY ASSET INDEX (PROXY OF FAMILY WEALTH) Following a standard approach tested in international surveys such as Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS),10 a asset index was constructed using responses on family ownership of a range of assets, which include a radio, a tv, a bicycle, a motorbike, land and animals, and a car as well as on access to Internet. A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) procedure11 was used to define ranking of wealth based on ownership of these eight assets. Quintiles of distribution of this index are treated as wealth rankings.

CHILD POSSESSIONS INDEX Caregivers were asked if the child had a number of basic personal items (a pair of shoes or sandals or slippers, at least two changes of clothes, a blanket), and if he or she slept under a mosquito net. The questionnaire also inquired about whether the child had textbooks, a table, his or her own room, and a quiet place to study, as well as access to a radio, a television, Internet and a computer. Using positive responses to these questions, an MCA procedure was used to define an asset index for children’s possessions.

THE ACCESS TO SERVICES INDEX Community leaders were asked if they knew about the following basic services provided in their community: elementary school type EP1 (Grades 1–5), elementary school type EP2 (Grades 1–7), secondary school, sports and access to Internet,

10 UNICEF assists countries in collecting and analysing data in order to fill data gaps for monitoring the situation of children and women through its international household survey initiative, the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS).

11

MCA is the equivalent principal component analysis used when variables are categorical.

38

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

pharmacies, health facilities, food markets, product markets, post offices, banks, police stations, public transport, banks, community courts, churches/mosques, a civil registry and a single-service desk.

This index uses a score of 0 to 17. Each positive response, indicating that the community leader knows where the facility/service is located, scores 1 point. The maximum score is 17 points.

THE ACCESS TO COMMUNITY FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE INDEX This Access to Community Facilities and Infrastructure Index is constructed using responses of community leaders on the availability of facilities and infrastructure

SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

>

ALDE is designed as a mixed-method, longitudinal study that follows primary school pupils (Grades 1–7) over four years. It is informed by a socioecological model with interconnected and hierarchical levels of influence (child, family, school, community) on educational outcomes.

>

Probability proportion to size (PPS) is a sampling procedure used to ensure that each pupil enrolled at school has an equal probability of being selected. The total sample of 60 schools is stratified by school size as per the classification of the Ministry of Education and Human Development (MINEDH). Approximately 90 children are randomly selected from three grades in each school.

>

As a nationally representative study, ALDE allows for regional and ruralurban disaggregation, contextualizing findings on existing socio-economic disparities.

>

The achieved sample of 5,364 primary school children includes 941 adolescents aged 13-18, and 15 young adults aged 19–25, with a significantly higher representation of boys in both sub-groups than girls.

39

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

3.

MAGNITUDE OF SCHOOL NON-ATTENDANCE, GRADE REPETITION AND SCHOOL ATTAINMENT

40

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

COPYRIGHTS (ORGANIZATION/YEAR/PHOTOGRAPHER: UNICEF/2018/ZLATA BRUCKAUF)

within the community: radio, cinema/television, Internet points, a library, electricity, wells, piped water and latrines. The index has a score from 0 to 8. Each positive response, indicating the presence of an infrastructure, scores one point. The top score is eight points.

41

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

3.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF NON-ATTENDANCE AND ABSENTEEISM Children’s absenteeism affects learning and achievement directly through the loss of learning time, and indirectly through increased risk of grade repetition and dropout. Educational attainment, in contrast, is an indicator of pupils’ progress in the primary educational system; it directly refers to expected progress according to age. It is a key outcome for low- and middle-income countries together with academic performance (OECD, 2017).12

On average, children in the sample attended

61% OF THE TIME WHEN THE CHECKS WERE CONDUCTED

ALDE also collected observational data on pupils’ school attendance during the fieldwork. This is another source for the triangulation of data on school attendance checks. The median number of attendance checks conducted per child over a three-week period is 3.4 (with a SD of 2.7). On average, children in the sample attended 61 per cent of the time when the checks were conducted. No sex or age differences were observed; however, the mean attendance score tends to be higher in higher grades (71% in Grade 5 and 75% in Grade 6) but drops to 57 per cent for children who attend Grade 7.

FIGURE 4. FREQUENCY OF SCHOOL ATTENDANCE REPORTED BY TEACHERS AND CAREGIVERS 90.8

Caregiver

09.2

91.3

Teacher

08.7

Children who attend frequently Children who attend infrequently or never attend Source: ALDE 2018

The analysis presented in Figure 4 shows that teachers and caregivers are consistent in their reporting relatively high levels of school attendance during the year. Based on their responses, only around 9 per cent of children attend school infrequently or never attend. This perception is generally consistent with national data reported by the MINEDH (MINEDH,2020).

The reported duration of non-attendance, established by asking the question, “If the child only attended for a while, for how long did he/she attend?”, points to a prolonged or chronic absenteeism among the children who attend school infrequently. Out of those children who attended school infrequently, around one in two (58%) missed more than one academic term (Figure 5).

Non-attendance varies by a child’s sex and age. Substantially more boys are regularly absent from school than girls at any age. Absenteeism grows with age, FIGURE 5. DURATION OF SCHOOL NON-ATTENDANCE REPORTED BY TEACHERS

One quarter or less

More than 1 but less than 2 quarter

More than 2 quarters Source: ALDE 2018

12

PISA for Development, www.oecd.org/pisa/pisa-for-development

42

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

peaking at age 13 for both boys and girls; however, regardless of the source of data (caregivers or teachers) or age group, more boys than girls attend school infrequently (Figure 6).

Teachers’ and caregivers’ answers diverge the most for pupils in higher grades.13 FIGURE 6. PERCENTAGE OF INFREQUENT SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, BY SEX AND AGE, REPORTED BY CAREGIVERS AND TEACHERS Based on caregiver’s response

Based on teachers’response 15.0 14.2 11.6

10.5 07.1

Boys

10.9 09.4

09.9 06.6 05.9

06.8

06.6

7 years or less

11.8

11.1

8 to 9 years

10 years

11 to 12 years

Boys

Girls

For instance, 21 per cent of Grade 7 pupils attend school infrequently based on the caregivers’ reports, compared to only 12 per cent based on the teachers’ reports.

While the reasons for such discrepancies in the data are unclear, it is likely that the caregivers’ reports are more accurate given their daily observation of older children’s engagement in other household activities.

Figure 7 shows that more than twice as many children from rural areas as from urban areas are likely not to attend school (10% and 4%, respectively, according to caregivers).

The difference in prevalence rate is relatively consistent across reports by the teachers and caregivers.

FIGURE 7. INFREQUENT ATTENDANCE AT THE URBAN, RURAL AND NATIONAL LEVELS, REPORTED BY TEACHERS AND CAREGIVERS 10.7

10.2 09.2

Percentagem

04.3

04.2

Infrequent attendance reported by careviger

Infrequent attendance reported by teacher Urban

13

Rural

09.8 08.7 07.2

05.4

13 years

Girls

08.7

11.6

National

Source: ALDE 2018

The differences are statistically significant.

43

Source: ALDE 2018

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

around one third of all pupils

32%

MISSED ONE OR TWO DAYS OF SCHOOLING PRIOR THE INTERVIEW

The results on non-attendance should be considered in the context of caregivers’ responses on whether the child missed the school on the day prior to or the day of the interview. This indicator has higher reliability due to its short recall period, and hence better reflects the actual scale of absenteeism across the sample of children. According to caregivers, 19 per cent of the children in the sample did not attend school the day prior to the interview and 26 per cent did not attend school on the day of the interview. Overall, around one third of all pupils (32%) missed one or two days of schooling prior the interview.

Pupil absenteeism is one of the key risk factors for children falling behind relative to their peers. The multivariate analysis of the survey shows that children who have been absent one of the two days (on the day prior to or on the day of the interview) are 30 per cent less likely to be on track in their studies; and children who have been absent both days are 49 per cent less likely to be on track than those who did attend school on both days, even after controlling for age, sex and pre-school attendance. It could be a vicious cycle as falling behind in grades might affect pupils’ motivation to attend the school.

BOX 2. REPORTED REASONS FOR SCHOOL ABSENTEEISM

Caregivers whose children missed school on the day prior to or the day of the interview were asked to give their explanations for absenteeism. Their responses provide qualitative information to the absenteeism issue (Figure 8).

About one quarter of those who responded (24%) noted that a child’s lack of motivation was the main reason for not going to school. While the quantitative component of the study could not further explore the reasons underlying children’s low motivation for attending school, the data provide some indications through the emerging themes captured in the ‘other’ category, which include: poor nutrition: “He refused to go to school because he didn’t have dinner the night before”; the family’s reflection on the lack of school basic equipment, which hinders the child’s ability to attend: “The school has no seats for the kids to go to. [She] sits on the floor and the laundry gets dirty”; and the lack of basic school materials (exercise books and pencils).

The other most commonly mentioned reasons relate to school closure, family events including the death of a close relative/caregiver, a sick parent, a visit to church and to relatives, and distance to school: “I had no one to accompany him to school and the school is a long way from here. Three hours is too long for a child.” Overall, it appears from caregiver’s responses that the schooling routine is easily interrupted by a combination of community- and householdlevel obligations and commitments, which are enforced by poverty and poor school conditions. The qualitative component of the study will further investigate this motivational aspect of school attendance.

FIGURE 8. MAIN PERCEIVED REASONS FOR NON-ATTENDANCE Other S/he didn’t want to go to school School closed S/he is sick Don’t know Absent teacher S/he hád to work S/he had to travel Helping at home There was a family/community event Natural disasters S/he got married She’s pregnant Initiation rites Refused to answer

Number of responses

44

Source: ALDE 2018

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

Grade repetition is one of the negative contributors to overall poor attainment (together with a delayed entry as well as prolonged periods of being out of school); it reflects the inefficiency of the primary school system. Overall, 14 per cent of children in the sample are reported by the teacher to repeat the grade. This finding is close to official MINEDH data, which show that in 2017, 12.5 per cent of pupils in EP1 and 13.7 per cent in EP2 repeated the grade (MINEDH, 2020: 23). More boys (15%) than girls (12%) repeated a grade. Grade repetition does not vary with family wealth (measured by the asset index); however, children living in a household where the household head completed basic technical education are less likely to repeat a grade than those where the household head is educated only to the primary level. According to teachers, the most repeated grades are Grades 2 and 5, the grades in which children must take national assessments. In the sample, 42 per cent of all children who repeated a grade repeated Grade 2, and 23 per cent repeated Grade 5.

The statistics reported by teachers seem to underestimate the scale of the problem when compared to the data estimated based on the corresponding age and grade in the sample of pupils (Table 4). The ideal educational attainment outcome would be if everyone in Grade 1 would be six years old (the official age for starting school in Mozambique), everyone in Grade 2 would be seven years old, and so on (highlighted in the diagonal in Table 4). However, this is not the case observed in the sample. Overall, at age 11, only 14 per cent of the children were in Grade 6, and 18 per cent were at least in Grade 5; 18 per cent never progressed beyond Grade 1.

From the age of 12, many factors start playing a role and affect grade progression, including to secondary school.

TABLE 4. PROPORTION OF PUPILS IN EACH GRADE, BY AGE Child’s age

Grade 1

2

3

4

5

6

6

93%

6%

0%

0%

0%

0%

7

68%

27%

3%

1%

1%

0%

8

40%

29%

26%

4%

1%

0%

9

29%

23%

23%

22%

3%

1%

10

26%

22%

19%

20%

13%

1%

11

18%

10%

20%

20%

18%

14% Fonte: ALDE 2018

Grade repetition does not greatly vary between urban and rural populations (14% and 12%, respectively) but there are some notable differences between the regions, with the highest levels observed in the southern region. Around one third of all sampled children (29%) repeated a grade in Maputo Province and in Inhambane Province, and 24 per cent in Gaza Province.

45

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

3.3 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Figure 9 presents results on grade progression according to the expected grade for the full sample of children, which can serve as a proxy of the quality of the overall system. It emerges that less than half of all children in the sample (47.5%) are on track in their primary school trajectory. Significantly more urban children progress through primary school (65.5) according to age expectations than rural children (41.9). The most prevalent number of years falling behind the expected grade is two or three, 15.5 per cent in urban areas and 25.8 per cent in rural areas. The observed disparity between urban and rural areas is also largest in this category (10.3%).

FIGURE 9. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AT THE URBAN, RURAL AND NATIONAL LEVELS 08.1 Four or more years behind the expected grade

14.5

15.5 Two or three years behind the expected grade

10.9

25.8 23.4

17.7 16.1

One year behind the expected grade

41.9

Pupils 'on track'

65.5 47.5

Percentage Urban

Rural

National

Source: ALDE 2018

Table 5 shows that girls are more likely than boys to be on track (statistically significant difference of 5%). Boys are also at a higher risk of being severely behind their expected grade: 15 per cent of boys in the sample were behind four or more years, compared to 11 per cent of girls. There are no significant differences between girls and boys among those who are just one year behind until girls reach puberty, when disaggregated by age, the results show that, at the age of 13 or older, significantly more girls start falling behind or repeat a grade for the first time.

TABLE 5. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, BY SEX

Pupil 'on track' 1 year behind 2 or 3 years behind Four or more years behind

Mean (SD) All 0.47 (0.50) 0.16 (0.37) 0.23 (0.42) 0.13 (0.34)

Girls 0.50 (0.50) 0.17 (0.37) 0.22 (0.42) 0.11 (0.31)

Boys 0.45 (0.50) 0.16 (0.36) 0.24 (0.43) 0.15 (0.36)

SM Diff 0.05*** [0.01] 0.01 [0.01] -0.02 [0.01] -0.04*** [0.01]

No. 5,270 5,270 5,270 5,270

Notes: Differences are estimated using bivariate linear regressions models. Standard deviations in parentheses and standard error of difference in square brackets. * p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. SM Diff = sample mean difference.

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

FIGURE 10. FALLING BEHIND ONE SCHOOL YEAR, BY GENDER 33.6

22.4 18.6 19.3

20.9 12.3 07.1

7 years or less Boys

8 to 9 years

10 years

11 to 12 years

13 years

Girls

This snapshot of the reported and observed scale of children’s absenteeism, grade retention and educational attainment highlights underlying barriers to school attendance. The next few sections will explore the bivariate relationship between these educational outcomes and family-, school- and community-level factors.

SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

>

Non-attendance: On average, 9 per cent of enrolled children attend school infrequently or never attend; most of the cases are indicative of chronic absenteeism (missing one or more academic terms). Risks of non-attendance increase with age, showing that this is the highest vulnerability factor among adolescents aged 13 and older (15% for boys and 12% for girls, according to teachers’ reports).

>

Absenteeism: Observational spot checks reveal that, on average, children attend only around 61 per cent of the time (or are absent 39% of the school time). According to their caregivers, approximately one third of all pupils (32%) missed at least one of the two school days prior to the interview.

>

Gender: Boys are more likely than girls to attend school infrequently or never attend, irrespective of age. They are also more likely to fall severely behind (four or more years behind their expected grade). Girls are more likely to be on track than boys until puberty (ages 13 or older).

>

Grade retention: At the age of 11, less than one sixth of children have progressed to Grade 6 (14%) and nearly one quarter (18%) still attend grade one.

>

Structural disparity: More than twice as many children from rural areas (10%) as from urban areas (4%) are likely not to attend school. Less than half of all rural children (46%) progress in school according to their age compared to the majority of urban children (65%).

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

4.

CHILD DEPRIVATION AND FAMILY SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

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The proposed conceptual framework and the examined literature suggest a few potential drivers of primary school attendance and progression at the family level.

Findings in this study confirm a strong relationship between a child’s absenteeism and grade progression, on the one hand, and the socio-economic status of the family, on the other hand, whether measured through the aggregate family assets index or the child possession index.

Children who lack basic material goods are more likely than their peers to attend school infrequently or never attend.

There are various ways of measuring the socio-economic background of the family and its effects on pupils’ outcomes, both direct (monetary-based measures such as income or consumption) and indirect (affluence or wealth indices, parents’ occupational status and level of education). In this report, a simple index of a child’s access to and possessions of basic personal items was used – those that either belong to or are used by the child (e.g. television, radio, Internet). In addition, an approach validated in other socio-demographic and education surveys (e.g. DHS, MICS) was adopted, using family assets to construct a family wealth index. Both can be interpreted as a proxy of family socio-economic status.

4.1 ACCESS TO BASIC MATERIAL GOODS Figure 11 shows the variation in school attendance according to a child’s access to basic material goods that reflect his or her needs (see Box 3 for further information).

Children who lack these items are more likely than their peers to attend school infrequently or never attend. There are statistically significant differences (p<0.01) between groups of children who have a pair of shoes, a change of clothes and mosquito nets to sleep under; those with access are more likely to attend school frequently. For example, almost twice as many children who attend school frequently had breakfast in the morning (51%) as those who did not (37%).

FIGURE 11. SCHOOL ATTENDANCE ACCORDING TO WHETHER THE CHILD’S BASIC NEEDS ARE MET, AND HIS OR HER OWNERSHIP OF MATERIAL GOODS 45.8

Child has a mosquito net to sleep under

61.9

Child has a blanket

71.8 73.8

Child has at least two changes of clothes

74.7

Child has a pair of shoes, sandals or slippers

85.2

77.6 37.4

Child had breakfast this morning

Does not attend frequently or never attends

50

Attends frequently

Source: ALDE 2018

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

BOX 3. THE EXTENT TO WHICH CHILDRENS’ BASIC NEEDS ARE MET

The survey asked caregivers about their child’s access to and possession of certain child-specific material goods that can be considered important for his or her daily functioning and ability to learn in school. It shows that the majority of children in the sample have access to basic material goods: 84.9 per cent of the children are reported to have at least one change of clothing; 76.8 per cent, at least one pair of shoes or sandals; and 74.4 per cent, a blanket. Yet, additional analysis showed that only 62 per cent of Mozambican children have all three basic items. Access to child-specific material goods vary by rural/urban location, and parents’ education and wealth: 10 per cent of rural children do not have access to their own blanket, a pair of shoes and a change of clothes, compared to only 1 per cent in urban areas. In addition, 50 per cent of children who live in a household where the household head is educated to the primary EP1 level do not have pens and pencils in the house, compared to 29 per cent whose household head has completed elementary school.

FIGURE 12. CHILD’S POSSESSION OF MATERIAL GOODS, NATIONAL LEVEL School books

85.4 84.9

Clothes

76.8 74.4

Shoes/sandals Blanket Mosquito net

62.4

Quiet place to study Paper and pen to write

44.5 32.8

Table to do homework Room for her/himself

29.5 25.2

Radio TV

22.8 07.5

Books at home Computer Internet (at home)

02.8 01.2

Percentage

The results are generally aligned with the levels of coverage reported in the 2017 Census on some household-level items. For example, only 1 per cent of children in the sample had access to the Internet compared to 2 per cent households in the census; and 25 per cent of children had access to radio compared to 22 per cent of households in the census. While not directly comparable due to differences in the formulation of questions and the level of response (child vs. household), this generally confirms the very limited access to external information among primary school children in Mozambique.

The analysis of children’s absenteeism through the constructed aggregate index of the child’s possession of household items supports this pattern, showing that deprived children (below average on the child’s assets index) are more likely to miss two days of school prior to the interview.

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TABLE 6. SCHOOL ATTENDANCE ACCORDING TO PUPIL’S ACCESS TO WRITING AND READING MATERIALS AT HOME Attends frequently (% Yes)

Does not attend frequently or never attends (% Yes)

T-test

No.

%

No.

%

In this house, are there paper and pencils, or something to write on?

2,414

52.3

155

34.3

p<0.001

Does the child use this material to do homework?

2,169

89.8

96

62.2

p<0.001

Does the child have any textbooks?

3,995

86.6

313

69.2

p<0.001

698

15.1

46

10.1

p<0.001

Less than 10

611

87.1

44

95.2

From 10 to 50

77

11.4

2

4.8

Over 50

10

1.5

0

0.0

In this house, do you have any books that are not from school?

Number of books at home

p=0.09 Source:: ALDE 2018

Note: The t-test is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a pupil’s t-distribution under the null hypothesis. A t-test is the most commonly applied when the test statistic would follow a normal distribution if the value of a scaling term in the test statistic were known. The t-test can be used, for example, to determine if the means of two sets of data are significantly different from each other.

4.2 FAMILY WEALTH In this study, faily wealth is measured using the asset index.14 As shown in Figure 13, around five times fewer children living in households who are ranked in the fifth wealth quintile (i.e. the wealthiest quintile) attend school infrequently than children from the poorest households (i.e. in the first wealth quintile) (2.3% compared to 12.1%). The gap is even wider between the fifth and the second quintiles.

FIGURE 13. PUPILS’ NON-ATTENDANCE, BY WEALTH QUINTILE 5th quintile (richest)

02.3

4 quintile

06.6

th

3rd quintile

09.7 14.3

2 quintile nd

12.1

1st quintile (poorest)

Percentage

14

See page 36 for the definition of the asset index.

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Source: ALDE 2018

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

Similarly, the results also confirm a strong link between household wealth and educational attainment. Figure 14 shows that twice as many children from the richest 5th quintile are on track than their peers from the poorest 1st quintile (74.1% and 34%, respectively). Similar results are observed for the second poorest quintile. The differences are even more dramatic in the proportion of children falling far behind (four or more years below the expected grade), suggesting that the poorest children from the 1st or 2nd quintile on the asset index are almost four times more likely to fall that far behind than their richer peers. This group of children are severely delayed in their learning proficiency levels and are unlikely to ever be able to catch up.

FIGURE 14. FAMILY WEALTH AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 74.1

5th quintile (richest) 4th quintile 3rd quintile 2nd quintile

09.5 19.5

57.1

18.5

35.8

One year below expected grade

Two or three years below expected grade

Parents’ level of education is often used as another proxy of socio-economic status of the family given its correlation with income in specific contexts. The literature strongly supports the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage, and parents’ education as the main mechanism that reinforces it. Overall, less than half (44%) of children who live in a household whose household head is educated to the primary school level are on track; this is in contrast to 76 per cent of those who live with a household head who educated to the secondary level. Completing the secondary level seems to be a major booster for building parental support of their children’s learning and educational attainment.

53

28.4 30.2

18.6

Percentage Pupils 'on track'

26.1

18.8

39.4

1st quintile (poorest)

10.8

05.7 08.4

15.7 17.3 17.2

Source: ALDE 2018

Four years or more below expected grade

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

BOX 4. THE IMPACT OF CAREGIVERS’ EXPECTATIONS FOR CHILDREN’S EDUCATION IN MOZAMBIQUE.

Evidence shows that parental expectations play a critical role in children’s academic path. Children whose caregivers have high expectations receive higher grades, have a positive disposition towards learning, and persist longer in school than do those whose caregivers hold relatively low expectations (Davis-Kean, 2005; Pearce, 2006; Vartanian et al., 2007; OECD, 2013). Low expectations and aspirations for school outcomes can affect children’s own expectations, trapping them in the intergenerational cycle of low attainment (Gorard, See and Davis, 2012).

Schooling is perceived as ‘important for the child's future’ by the overwhelming majority of parents in the sample: 97 per cent of the caregivers agree or strongly agree with this statement. A similarly high level of agreement is observed on the usefulness of schooling for future work (95%). These are normative questions that indicate the high value that parents and caregivers of Mozambique give to education. Yet, the day-to-day socio-economic reality can be strikingly different, offering little motivation to support children’s continuous schooling. Far fewer caregivers were confident that the child would complete secondary school: overall, nationwide, only about half of the parents (52%) were confident or very confident that their child would complete secondary school; one quarter of parents (24%) stated that they did not know; and 9 per cent of all respondents were not sure at all.

Caregivers’ level of expectations regarding school completion also varies substantially across provinces and household wealth. Higher level of expectations for secondary school completion are observed in areas with more job opportunities such as Inhambane Province, Maputo city (Cidade) and Maputo Province (Figure 15). Substantially more children living in households of the wealthiest quintile are expected to complete secondary school than children from the poorest quintile (71% and 45%, respectively). Notably, on average, there are no statistically significant differences between expectations for boys and girls.

FIGURE 15. CAREGIVERS’ CONFIDENCE THAT THEIR CHILD WILL COMPLETE SECONDARY SCHOOL

Percentage

88.9

40.3

44.9

46.8

61.2

56.6

Sure or very sure he/she will complete secondary school

62.2

63.7

71.2

73.1

Source: ALDE 2018

Caregivers were also asked about how sure they were that their child would resume school at the beginning of next school year. A shorter time horizon brought more variation in responses, highlighting substantial rural/urban differences as well as differences in responses for girls and boys: 12 per cent of caregivers in rural areas were ‘a bit unsure or not sure at all’ whether their child would return to school the following year, compared to only 5 per cent in urban areas.

Overall, caregivers of boys were less confident that the latter would return to school the following year: 12 per cent stated that they were ‘not sure’, compared to 9 per cent of caregivers of girls. This supports other findings that indicate higher risks of boys’ absenteeism and grade progression.

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SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

>

Child-specific deprivations: Approximately only two thirds of primary school children in Mozambique (62%) have access to three personal items for their basic needs: at least one change of clothing, a pair of shoes or sandals, and a personal blanket.

>

Family wealth: The poorest children from the 1st and 2nd quintile on the wealth index are three times more likely to fall far behind (four or more years) than their richer peers of the 5th quintile (17% vs. 5%).

>

Parental education: Children whose caregiver is educated to the secondary school level are nearly twice more likely to be on track than those whose caregiver is educated only to the primary school level (78% vs. 46%, respectively).

>

Parents’ aspirations. Only about half of the surveyed parents (52%) were confident or very confident that their child would complete secondary school. Higher aspirations for secondary school completion were observed among wealthier households and in areas with better opportunities for productive activities and paid jobs (Maputo city and Maputo Province).

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

5.

SCHOOL-LEVEL FACTORS: QUALITY AND EFFECTIVENESS

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School policies and practices play a distinctive role in providing a fair, inclusive and stimulating environment for learning. According to the conceptual framework of this study, teachers’ characteristics and quality of teaching, an inclusive environment, material resources (or level of investment) and school management are the supplyside factors that could contribute to pupils’ attendance and grade progression. This section explores this issue and selected school conditions.

5.1 TEACHERS’ CHARACTERISTICS AND QUALITY OF TEACHING Evidence from different African countries highlights that the quality of teaching is a critical factor contributing to educational outcomes (Sanders and Rivers, 1996; Molina and Martin, 2015; Lauchande et al., 2013, etc.). Teachers are the backbone of quality educational provision, because it is through their knowledge, pedagogical skills and time spent in the classroom that children learn and progress. Based on the conceptual model and reviewed literature, it was hypothesized that teachers’ characteristics (e.g. sex, professional experience, qualifications) may have an impact on pupils’ school attendance. In the exploratory phase of the analysis, some correlation was found between teachers’ characteristics and educational outcomes, particularly those related to a teacher’s sex and years of professional experience.

classes taught by female teachers have a much higher proportion of pupils on track than classes taught by male teachers.

72%

FEMALE TEACHERS

VS.

57% MALE TEACHERS

5.1.1 SEX OF TEACHERS

In the sample, classes taught by female teachers have a higher proportion of pupils who attend school frequently than classes taught by men (92% vs. 88%). Similar findings have emerged in regard to pupils’ educational attainment: classes taught by female teachers have a much higher proportion of pupils on track than classes taught by male teachers (72% vs. 57%).

Further disaggregating the pupil population by sex confirms the overall trend, with lower rates of absenteeism among both boys and girls when the teacher is a woman. Figure 16 shows that a gender gap is observed between boys’ and girls’ non-attendance when pupils are taught by a male teacher (12.7% vs. 9.0%); the gap is significantly smaller in the presence of a female teacher (8.7% vs. 5.8%).

Although there is some evidence of variation in school outcomes by teachers’ sex in the literature (Bassi, Medina Pedreira and Nhampossa, 2018: 9–10; Justiniano et al., 2005; Colclough et al., 2000), it is critical to mention here that it is not a causal relationship. This does not imply that female teachers have more influence on attendance than male teachers; indeed, other factors not controlled for here could be underpinning this result. For instance, deployment of female teachers is especially limited in more rural and remote areas. In addition, pupils living in urban areas are less likely to be absent than those in rural areas. Further investigation on teacher’s gender and perceived efficacy could be further investigated during the qualitative work.

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

FIGURE 16. SCHOOL NON-ATTENDANCE AND PUPILS’ AND TEACHERS’ SEX

05.8 Female Teacher’s sex

08.7

09.0 Male 12.7

Non-attendance of male pupils

Non-attendance of female pupils

Source: ALDE 2018

5.1.2 TEACHERS’ ACADEMIC QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE

Teachers’ academic qualifications and experience are additional factors linked to both school attendance and their educational attainment. Pupils who are reported to attend school frequently over the course of the year are taught by teachers with more years of experience than those who attend infrequently or never attend; the difference is statistically significant (mean of 9.1 years for pupils attending frequently vs. 7.2 years for pupils not attending frequently; p< 0.001). The difference is even greater when considering the teacher’s years of experience in a particular school rather than in the general teaching profession (Table 7).

TABLE 7. SCHOOL ATTENDANCE ACCORDING TO TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Frequently attends #

Source: ALDE 2018

Does not attend frequently or never attends %

#

%

T-test

Total teaching experience in years (total) No experience

222

4.8

28

6.1

1–2 years

837

18.1

85

18.6

3–5 years

761

16.5

97

21.3

6–10 years

1,355

29.4

153

33.6

More than 10 years

1,440

31.2

93

20.4

Teaching experience (mean years, SE*)

9.05 (0.12)

7.20 (0.32)

T=-3.8

p<0001

Experience in the current school No experience

481

10.4

51

11.2

1–2

1,506

32.6

172

37.7

3–5

1,260

27.3

159

34.9

6–10

1,001

21.7

63

13.8

367

8.0

11

2.4

More than 10 years Mean (years)

4.3 (0.06)

Note: *SE = Standard error.

59

3.2(0.15)

T=-5.7 p=0.0001

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

Although, on average, the majority of pupils are taught by teachers whose highest educational level is Grade 12, more pupils who are reported by caregivers as attending school frequently are taught by teachers with a university degree (10.7%, vs. 6.6%, p<0.001); their absolute numbers (41) are small, however. Similarly, when exploring the relationship between teachers’ education and pupils’ educational attainment, more pupils on track are taught by teachers with a university degree than other teachers (12.7% vs. 6.7%, p<0.001) (see Annex II, Table 3).

BOX 5. TEACHER-PARENT COMMUNICATION

Previous research in African countries has highlighted the centrality of parents and caregivers in pupils’ school life, including in the decision of dropping out or continuing education (Hall, 2018). Sharing responsibility between the school and parents is therefore paramount when trying to ensure consistent school attendance. Yet, the results here reveal that, in Mozambique, communication on important school-related issues and justification of the child’s absence from school are both very low.

Nationwide, more than half of all caregivers (58%) reported never speaking with the teacher in the current school year, with a notable difference between urban (40%) and rural populations (64%). It could be argued that face-to face communication with the teacher is reserved for the most extreme or problematic pupils. Yet, four in ten caregivers (40%) report not receiving any kind of information or communication from the school in the last school quarter.

Overall across the sample, only one third of all caregivers (31%) stated that they always justified their child’s absence from school; around one third of all surveyed parents (37%) justified their child’s absenteeism ‘sometimes’, and around one third (31%) never did. Cabo Delgado Province has the lowest levels of parent accountability: half of all caregivers (50%) never justified their child’s absence. Communication with the teacher and caregivers’ reporting on absenteeism vary by region (with the worst situation in the northern provinces) and parents’ level of education. Twice as many caregivers who completed primary school report a lack of communication with the teacher and the non-reporting of child’s absenteeism as those who with a higher education.

These results point to a concrete policy area of concern. School management in Mozambique should make greater efforts to improve information gaps and strengthen communication channels between the school and parents, promoting joint responsibility in the child’s attendance.

5.2 SCHOOL RESOURCES

Intuitively, good school infrastructure and adequate conditions should counterbalance a poor home environment, thus contributing to higher levels of attendance and educational attainment.

Intuitively, good school infrastructure and adequate conditions should counterbalance a poor home environment, thus contributing to higher levels of attendance and educational attainment. Similarly, pupils should learn more effectively when they have a proper place to sit, have basic materials such as pencils and textbooks, as well as access to a library. Evidence is mixed, however, and strongly depends on the socio-economic context of the country. While in low-income countries, public investment in school materials and infrastructure tends to translate into better results, in high-income settings, higher expenditure on education sector does not guarantee better pupil performance (OECD, 2012).

In this section, evidence is supported by examining the relationship between school conditions and the outcomes of interest. Overall, it has been observed that access to basic school infrastructure can make a difference. This informs the MINEDH on the importance of investing in basic school facilities and materials.

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ATTENDANCE AND ACCESS TO BASIC SCHOOL MATERIAL

Figure 17 shows that pupils who attend frequently have better access to basic school materials than pupils who do not. For instance, 46.8 per cent of those who attend frequently have chairs (as opposed to sitting on the floor) in their classroom compared to 36.4 per cent of those who attend infrequently. The difference is statistically significant (p=0.001). Additionally, more pupils attending frequently than those not attending frequently possess textbooks, pencils and exercise books, with all differences statistically significant.

FIGURE 17. FREQUENCY OF ATTENDANCE BY POSSESSION OF BASIC SCHOOL MATERIALS

No. of pupils with exercise books

23.3 26.8

No. of pupils with pencils

23.6 30.2

No. of pupils with subject books 21.5 28.5

Percentage Attending frequently

Not attending frequently Source: ALDE 2018

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND SCHOOL MATERIALS School materials also have an impact on grade progression. Pupils on track are more likely to have basic school materials than those who are not on track. Also, more pupils on track than those not on track own school textbooks (28.0% vs.

23.7%, p<0.001), pencils (31.4% vs. 26.5%, p<0.001) and exercise books (30.0% vs. 24.3%). Figure 18 shows that pupils who are on track generally have better school material than those who are not.

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

FIGURE 18. SCHOOL ATTENDANCE ACCORDING TO NUMBER OF PUPILS IN THE CLASSROOM AND POSSESSION OF SCHOOL MATERIALS

No. of pupils in the classroom Students 'on track'

No. of pupils with subject books

No. of pupils with pencils

Students 'not on track'

No. of pupils with exercise books Source: ALDE 2018

It is important to observe that the variation in class size between pupils on track and not on track is against expectations. More on-track pupils are found in largersize classes than in smaller-size classes. Here, the explanation may be associated with school location – i.e. rural versus urban. Indeed, schools in urban areas, where there is a greater likelihood of higher rates of pupils being on track, are more likely to have larger class sizes than schools in rural areas.

5.3 WATER, SANITATION AND HYGIENE IN SCHOOLS in schools that provide access to latrines for pupils, the percentage of pupils attending frequently is higher than the percentage of pupils not attending frequently or who never attend (81% and 75%, respectively)

81%

The importance of WASH in schools has been recognized globally by its inclusion in the SDGs (targets 4.a, 6.1, 6.2) as key components of a ‘safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environment’ and as part of universal WASH access. Children spend a significant part of their day at school where WASH services can impact their learning, health, participation and dignity, particularly of girls.

The results support regional and global evidence of the positive impact of WASH in schools. Figure 19 shows that in schools that provide access to latrines for pupils, the percentage of pupils attending frequently is higher than the percentage of pupils not attending frequently or who never attend (81% and 75% respectively15).

The trend is supported in other categories of WASH facilities. For the results of the multivariate regression model for school attendance, see Annex III, Table 1.

75% 15

All bivariate associations are statistically significant at p<0.001..

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

BOX 6. IMPACT OF WASH SERVICES IN PRIMARY SCHOOLS ON CHILDREN’S ATTENDANCE

There is growing evidence that access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services in school has a positive impact on school attendance and health outcomes, such as a reduced likelihood of diarrhoea and respiratory infections among pupils (Freeman et al., 2012; Trinies et al., 2016). In addition, access to adequate WASH facilities in school is essential for menstrual hygiene management (MHM) among girls, and poor MHM practices can have implications for their school attendance and participation, dignity and self-efficacy (Sommer et al., 2016). Qualitative evidence from sub-Saharan Africa suggests that menstruating girls occasionally miss school during their periods due in part to the shame and fear associated with menstruation (Tegegne and Sisay, 2014; WaterAid, 2012). In addition, adolescent girls are more likely to be absent from schools with poor WASH facilities.

Access to WASH services is limited in schools in Mozambique. Although the 2016 national estimate is not available on basic water services, 54 per cent of urban schools and 72 per cent of rural schools were estimated to lack access to water. Basic access to sanitation was limited to 48 per cent of schools, and only 15 per cent of schools had access to basic hygiene services, which was one of the lowest among sub-Saharan African countries (WHO and UNICEF, 2018).

In this study, out of a total of 60 schools, 36 per cent lacked access to improved water sources and 42 per cent lacked access to improved sanitation facilities. With regard to hygiene, the vast majority of the schools (96%) did not have handwashing stations with water and soap, or ash.

The children in the sample were twice (OR 2.04) more likely to attend school where school latrines had a door and walls, suggesting the importance of sanitation facilities that ensure privacy. This was also associated with an 84 per cent reduction in the adjusted odds of being absent from school at least one day during their last menstruation period (Annex III, Table 1), which is consistent with earlier reports suggesting that privacy of sanitation facilities is essential for MHM (Crofts and Fisher, 2012; Hennegan et al., 2016). In addition, the presence of an improved water source inside the school premises led to reduced odds of school absenteeism by 90 per cent among menstruating girls during their last period (Annex III, Table 2). These findings further support the notion that lack of access to WASH services in school has a negative impact on children’s schooling.

FIGURE 19. SCHOOL ATTENDANCE ACCORDING TO DRINKING WATER AND SANITATION FACILITIES 75.2

School have latrines for students

81.4 62.1

School have latrines for teachers

72.8

School have separate latrines for boys and girls

72.9 79.9 33.3

Drinking water for pupils at school

39.6

Percentage Not attending frequently

Attending frequently

Source: ALDE 2018

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

5.4 SCHOOL MANAGEMENT The conceptual framework highlights the relevance of leadership for a conducive school environment. In the following sections, the impact of school principals’ characteristics and school management style on pupils’ absenteeism is measured.

More specifically, the relationship is explored between outcomes of interest and school principals’ characteristics (e.g. sex, age, academic qualifications), frequency of school council meetings and supervision visits, and the school’s engagement with pupils’ parents/caregivers.

5.4.1 SCHOOL PRINCIPALS

Since age can be a proxy for experience in the profession, children attending schools frequently are likely to study in schools led by somewhat more experienced and higher educated school principals. Age distribution shows a slight (5%) but statistically significant difference in favour of older school principals (see Annex II, Table 6). Pupils who attend school regularly are more likely to have a school principal with a university degree than those who do not attend regularly (33.1% vs. 21.5%, p<0.001).

The sex of school principals is associated with children’s educational attainment.

In this case, pupils on track were more likely to study in a school where the school principal was a woman than those who were not in track (21.9% vs. 21.2%, p<0.001). In addition, the age distribution of school principals shows no statistically significant difference between groups (43.6 vs. 43.5, p=0.54).

Children attending schools frequently are likely to study in schools led by more experienced and higher educated school principals.

Children who were on track are likely to be in a school led by a school principal with a university degree (Figure 20): 32.9 per cent of these pupils attend such schools compared to only 23.4 per cent of those who are falling behind. Moreover, around half of all pupils (49.5%) who were not on track study in a school where the school principle has a Certificate for Secondary Education-second cycle, compared to only 38.4 per cent of those on track.

FIGURE 20. PUPILS 'ON TRACK' AND 'NOT ON TRACK', AND SCHOOL PRINCIPALS’ EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

49.6

38.4 Percentage

32.9

23.4

12.9 08.4

07.9 01.3 00.6 Primary education

Pupil 'on track'

05.0

03.3 03.5

Secondary 1st cycle

Secondary 2nd cycle

Basic-level technical education

Medium-level technical teaching

Pupil 'not on track'

01.8 01.3 Bachelor

01.9 Graduation (Licenciatura)

01.1

Master

04.0 02.7

Other

Source: ALDE 2018

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

5.4.2 SCHOOL COUNCIL MEETINGS AND SUPERVISION VISITS

The analysis confirmed that a strong relationship between the school and the community is a relevant factor in better school management and hence improved levels of school attendance among children. It was observed that community participation in school management through school councils is associated with better pupil attendance. Pupils with regular attendance are more likely to be enrolled in schools with more frequent school council meetings – 92.5 per cent of pupils attend frequently schools in which there are more than three council meetings a year, compared to 89.8 per cent who attend frequently schools in which there are less than three council meetings a year (p<0.001, see Annex IV). Annex IV Table 1 shows the relationship between absenteeism and frequency of school council meetings. Schools where the council meets once a year are likely to have more pupils not attending (10.2%) than schools where the school council meets more frequently (7.6%).

Furthermore, effective supervision by the district authorities can also be a key tool to monitor and improve education quality, especially when the necessary support is identified and delivered. It was observed that supervision is associated with higher attendance – 44.5 per cent of pupils attend frequently in schools with regular supervision visits compared to 26.7 per cent who do not (p<0.001). The relationship between school attendance and supervision visits is shaped by the school location: urban schools receive significantly higher number of visits than rural ones (mean 4.1 and 2.7, respectively). Figure 21 shows the drop in pupils’ absenteeism by frequency of school supervision visits. In schools with more supervision visits, only 2.8 per cent of pupils attend infrequently, compared to 12.6 per cent in schools with fewer supervision visits .

FIGURE 21. NO. OF SUPERVISION VISITS AND FREQUENCY OF ATTENDANCE

% of no attendance

12.6

12.2

05.1

02.8

Number of supervision visits (quartile) received in school 65

Source: ALDE 2018

a strong relationship between the school and the community is a relevant factor in better school management and hence improved levels of school attendance among children.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

BOX 7. SAFETY OF THE SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT

An ‘inclusive school environment’ is typically understood as classrooms, school grounds and broader communities that foster and value safety, tolerance and inclusion, and respond to a diversity of learning and participation needs (OECD, 2017). The survey collected data on children’s feeling of safety in school as reported by caregivers. Most caregivers responded positively to the question, ‘Does the child feel safe at school’: 22 per cent ‘strongly agreed’ and 64 per cent ‘agreed’ with the statement. Similarly, a high percentage of caregivers (85%) ‘agreed’ that the path to school was safe for the child. But one in ten caregivers (11%) ‘did not know’ how their children felt at school, suggesting a lack of communication with them on the topic; the responses do not vary according to the child’s sex. Caregivers’ perceptions of safety at school are likely to be driven by their general perception of safety within the community.

Children’s complaints about teachers and other pupils Caregivers were asked if their child ever complained about a teacher or another child. Since no data were collected at the child level, there is a likelihood of an underreporting bias. Bearing this in mind, it was observed that 7 per cent of children in the sample complained about the teacher. On average, most of the children who complained to their parents about a teacher did so twice in the last school quarter (72%). The complaints peak in Grade 5 (11%), where the pupil’s mean age is 12 years old. Across the entire sample of children, however, the number of complaints about the teacher did not vary by age group.

The reasons given by caregivers for complaints about a teacher suggest a high prevalence of physical punishment in the classroom environment. Overall, 58 per cent of the children who complained about their teacher indicated schoolbased physical violence, i.e. ‘hits/pinches’ (44%) and ‘physical punishment’ (12%), and 13 per cent indicated verbal abuse, i.e. the teacher ‘screams a lot or gets angry’.

There is no statistically significant association between children’s complaints about the teacher and the level of their attendance. One explanation might relate to social acceptance of the teacher’s authority and harsh disciplinary measures as a part of the teaching process. This is a potential area for the qualitative study to further investigate community and individual attitudes.

Peer bullying in school is a global problem with a particularly high prevalence in some African countries (Richardson and Hui, 2018). School-based bullying negatively contributes to the feeling of safety and a child’s sense of belonging to a school. It is one of the core global educational concerns due to its impact on a range of child well-being outcomes (UNESCO, 2017; 2019). In the ALDE 2018 survey, reported complaints about other children in school can be considered only as a proxy for bullying because they are reported by caregivers rather than the children themselves. Overall, according to caregivers, 16 per cent of the children complained about other children in school; slightly more girls (17%) are likely to complain than boys (15%).

The rates of complaints about other children drop progressively with the child’s age; the highest rate reported was between the ages of five and seven. The explanations given by caregivers on behalf of their children confirm that there is physical and verbal abuse among them: 61 per cent of the children who complained about other children said that they were subjected to physical violence (‘hits and pinches’) by them, and the second most common response was ‘screamed at by/experienced anger from other children. On average, about 40 per cent of all children who complained reported the incidents to school management. Reporting is higher among older children: 53 per cent of adolescents aged 13–25 reported school incidents compared to only 34 per cent of children aged 5–7. The provinces in the southern and central regions, Gaza Province and Manica, together with Maputo city, recorded the highest level of complaints (Figure 22).

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

FIGURE 22. CHILDREN’S COMPLAINTS ABOUT TEACHERS AND OTHER CHILDREN REPORTED BY CAREGIVERS, BY PROVINCE

16.8

19.0

Complaint about other children

Complaint about the teacher

25.0

28.5

29.9

Maputo City

11.7

14.5

24.8

Maputo Province

09.0

12.6

22.4

Source: ALDE 2018

Further investigation is needed to understand the effects of bullying on the psychosocial well-being of children and how it affects their motivation for attending school.

SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

>

Quality of teaching: Pupils who attend school frequently are taught by teachers with more years of professional experience than those who do not (an almost two-year difference in teaching experience).

>

School management: Regular supervision visits conducted by district authorities are associated with higher levels of regular attendance. Most of the caregivers (58%) reported never having spoken with the child’s teacher, and a sizable proportion (31%) never justified their child’s absence.

>

Material resources and WASH in schools: Pupils with better access to school materials (books, pencils, desks) attended school more frequently and were on track than those who did not. The pupils in the sample were twice as likely to attend school when school latrines had a door and walls, indicating that securing the privacy of facilities can be important for securing girls’ attendance. The presence of an improved water source inside the school premises was associated with reduced odds of absenteeism among menstruating girls.

>

Inclusive school climate: On average, 17 per cent of pupils complained about other pupils in school, and 7 per cent, about their teachers. Physical violence and abuse were the main reasons for complaints.

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

6.

COMMUNITY-LEVEL FACTORS

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

6.1 REGIONAL DISPARITY The sample of schools in the ALDE survey is representative at the national and regional levels. Therefore, the disaggregation of the results by province presented in this chapter should not be taken at its face value. It does, however, help to interpret it qualitatively since it clearly illustrates geographical and structural disparities in the educational sector in Mozambique.

There are dramatic differences between Mozambique regions in the level of pupils’ attendance and absenteeism. This is in line with well-documented socio-economic disparities between regions, and a multi-fold difference in the level of child poverty between the south and the north (UNICEF Mozambique, 2020). Figure 23 presents the level of children’s absenteeism on the day prior to and the day of the interview across provinces, which suggests the strong, almost linear relationship between the geographical location and indicators of pupils’ non-attendance and absenteeism. There is a nine-fold difference in absenteeism between the Niassa and Maputo Provinces, and a fourteen-fold difference between Maputo and Zambezia Provinces, where over one quarter of the children in the sample missed school on the day prior to and the day of the interview.

FIGURE 23. BEING ABSENT FROM SCHOOL IN THE LAST TWO DAYS PRIOR TO THE INTERVIEW, REPORTED BY CAREGIVERS 28.0

17.7 Percentage

16.1

08.3

01.8 Maputo City

02.8

09.5

10.9

11.7

03.4

Maputo Province

Note: Maputo city has an estimated zero rate of absenteeism in the last two days prior to the interview.

Source: ALDE 2018

There are also huge disparities in educational attainment across regions and a clear south-north divide (Figure 24). Almost all pupils in Maputo city (91%) are on track according to their age; in contrast, only slightly over one quarter (28%) are on track in Cabo Delgado Province. Cabo Delgado is the province where the share of children who are two to three years behind their expected grade exceeds those who are on track (30%). Similar to Cabo Delgado Province, children who are on track represent a minority of the pupil population in the Nampula, Niassa, Sofala, Tete and Zambezia Provinces, with a prevalence of severe cases (falling four or more years behind the expected grade) exceeding 10 per cent.

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

The differences in access to infrastructure and services are most likely to FIGURE 24. PROPORTION OF CHILDREN explain the observed regional disparities. Data collected through interviews with 'ON TRACK', ACCORDING TO AGE, BY PROVINCE community leaders strongly indicate that community access to better facilities and infrastructure (radio, cinema, the Internet, electricity, piped water and sanitation) has a positive impact on pupils being on track in their grades: 30.0 per cent of pupils 28% pupil who are on track live in communities with better infrastructure, compared to 40% 22.1 per cent of pupils not on track, p<0.001).

These findings confirm existing evidence by suggesting that pupils attending school frequently are more likely to come from schools located in settings with good infrastructure (28% of pupils attend frequently vs. 19.6 per cent of the pupils who do not attend frequently, p<0.001).

Mozambique is a country prone to natural disasters, and 23 per cent of pupils in the sample live in communities heavily affected by floods. The incidence of these climatic shocks is reported with a much higher frequency in rural areas than in urban areas, probably because the effects of heavy floods have much more disruptive consequences (washed out roads, damaged housing constructed with primitive materials, etc.). Figure 25 shows that pupils who attend the school infrequently (29.8%) are more likely to come from areas with greater exposure to environmental shocks than those who do not (23.2%). The relationship with covariate shocks, however, is no longer significant when taking into account other individual and community characteristics.

36% 38% 43%

60%

45%

Series 1 91%

69% 68% 28%

Source: ALDE 2018

FIGURE 25. ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE, EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE SHOCKS AND PUPILS’ NON-ATTENDANCE

Climate shock

Access to services index

Access to infrastructure index

Source: ALDE 2018

Attending frequently

Not attending frequently

Note: See methodology section on the construction of access to services and access to infrastructure indices.

71

Mozambique is a country prone to natural disasters, and 23 per cent of pupils in the sample live in communities heavily affected by floods.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

6.2 PRE-SCHOOL PROVISION

5.2%

OF CHILDREN ARE REPORTED TO HAVE ATTENDED PRE-SCHOOL BEFORE PRIMARY SCHOOL.

There is a strong correlation between a child’s school attendance on the day prior to and the day of the interview (as reported by a caregiver), and a child’s pre-school record: 85 per cent of children who attended pre-school attended school on the day prior to and the day of the interview, compared to 66 per cent of those who did not attend pre-school. As shown in Figure 26, there is around a twofold difference between children who have not attended pre-school (20.7%) and children who have (9.8%) in terms of missing one day prior to the interview (the day prior to or the day of the interview), and around a three-fold difference (13.8% vs.4.9%, respectively) in terms of missing both days prior to the interview. See Table 1, Annex V for the results of the multivariate regression confirming this result.

FIGURE 26. SCHOOL ABSENCE ON THE DAY PRIOR TO AND THE DAY OF THE INTERVIEW, OR BOTH DAYS, BY PRESCHOOL ATTENDANCE 85.3

65.6 Percentage

In the ALDE sample of children nationwide,

School readiness has been consistently linked to better primary and secondary school outcomes, particularly in low-income countries. Pre-school provision is the main channel to ensure that children are ready to learn and interact socially with their peers. According to official statistics, only 4 per cent of children are enrolled in pre-school in Mozambique (Martinez et al., 2012). In the ALDE sample of children nationwide, 5.2 per cent are reported to have attended pre-school before primary school. This varies by sex, with girls more likely to attend than boys (5.8% vs. 4.6%).

There is a significant three-fold difference between urban and rural children in the proportion of those attending pre-school (11.7% vs. 3.3%). Regional disparity is also striking, with 24 per cent of children with pre-school education in Maputo city and only 1–2 per cent in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Zambezia Provinces. Parents’ education and wealth are strongly associated with pre-school attendance when controlling for the child’s age and sex, indicating that affluent and more educated parents are more strongly motivated in investing in their child’s education under constrained supply conditions.

20.7 13.8

09.8 04.9

None Preschool

No preschool

72

One

Both Source: ALDE 2018

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

Furthermore, the results also indicate that the pre-school learning is a possible enabler of positive educational attainment outcomes even for children in rural areas16 Indeed, many more children who attended pre-school are on track than those who did not (75.6% and 45.1, respectively). The risks of falling severely behind their peers are also much lower for children who attended pre-school; only 4 per cent of children who attended pre-school are four or more years behind, compared to 14 per cent among those who did not (Figure 27).

FIGURE 27. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PRE-SCHOOL ATTENDANCE 75.6

45.1

24.5 16.7 08.9

13.8

11.8

03.7 Pupil 'on track'

No preschool

One year below expected grade

2 or 3 years below expected grade

4 years or more below expected grade

Preschool

Source: ALDE 2018

Using multivariate analysis presented in the next section, it can be observed that pre-school attendance increases the odds by almost three-fold of a child being on track, regardless of age or sex. However, the effect loses the magnitude and statistical significance after controlling for the education of the household head and particularly family wealth. This suggests that when there is a lack of public provision of pre-school education, this effect is driven by the socio-economic status of the family and its corresponding ability to pay for services.

many more children who attended pre-school are on track than those who did not (75.6% and 45.1, respectively).

75.6% 45.1% 16

Results retain their significance after controlling for rural locations in the multivariate regression.

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

BOX 8. RITES OF PASSAGE TO ADULTHOOD FOR MOZAMBICAN GIRLS AND BOYS

Initiation rites are cultural traditions practised in central and northern Mozambique. Traditionally, for boys, participation in the rites occurs after the first signs of biological puberty, and for girls, after the first menstruation. For girls, the start of menstruation marks the transition in which they are presumed to embark on sexual activity and may commit to marriage. They are taught about and prepared for marriage by godmothers, matrons and other senior female leaders of the community. The sexual division of labour, respect and sexual life are the main components of ritual learning.

Initiation rites are still a factor of cultural cohesion; i.e. through these rites, people identify themselves as belonging to a space and a group. Failure to perform the rites raises fear of not being accepted by the community (Osório and Macuácua, 2013). The rites also exert peer pressure, in which adolescent girls who do not attend are seen as being outside the traditional path for girls’ development (N’weti Consortium and UNICEF, 2017).

In this study, child caregivers were asked whether the child had already participated in initiation rites: according to the caregivers, 19 per cent of children had participated, out of whom 40 per cent were boys and 10 per cent, girls. Figure 28 shows the reported cases of initiation rites by age and sex. A wide age distribution from 6 to 18 years old can be observed, with more girls exposed to the rites between the ages of 16 and 18. The true scale of exposure at this age can be much higher since adolescents girls are less represented in the sample of primary school children than boys of the same age.

FIGURE 28. PERCENTAGE OF PARTICIPATION IN INITIATION RITES, BY AGE AND SEX

13.2

18.3

63.4

25.8

Percentage

11.0 08.3

43.0

41.9

38.0

08.3 04.6 18.0

00.0 01.4

Female

00.7 04.0

00.4 05.0

00.8

02.5

09.9

09.9

04.0 16.9

Male

05.9

31.7

20.4

18.0

Source: ALDE 2018

The observed geographic distribution of participation supports earlier evidence and highlights a higher concentration of this traditional practice in the northern region than in the central and southern regions. Cabo Delgado is the province with the highest percentage of reported cases (70%), followed by Nampula (63%) and Niassa (40%). Figure 29 shows the geographical differences for boys and girls: 74

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

FIGURE 29. PERCENTAGE OF BOYS’ (LEFT) AND GIRLS’ (RIGHT) PARTICIPATION IN INITIATION RITES, BY PROVINCE

Further analysis revealed that a child’s religion (Islam) has a very strong association with the probability of participation, increasing the odds by a factor of four (OR 4.3, p<0.001), as well as age and sex – older children and boys are more likely to participate, controlling for family wealth, parents’ education and region. Living in a wealthier household reduces the odds of taking part in initiation rites by 20 per cent, but loses statistical significance once the region is controlled for, suggesting that social and cultural norms play a more important role than wealth in the decision about initiation rites.

15%

36%

34% 8%

13%

5%

4%

5%

13%

6%

2%

1% Feminino

Masculino

13%

36% 2%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0% Source: ALDE 2018

The correlation between initiation rites and the educational outcomes of interest are compounded by the geographical distribution of this phenomena (the central and particularly the northern region). There is a slightly negative effect of initiation rites on child’s frequent attendance (reduction of the odds by 30%), even after controlling for the northern and central regions; in modelling the probability of being on track, this effect changes its direction when controlled for the northern region. This outcome may possibly be explained by the fact that religious affiliation is meaningful, and children from Muslim families of the northern region are more likely to progress well in school than their peers.

Source: Osório and Macuácua (2013).

SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

>

Geographical disparity across outcomes: There is 14-fold difference in the level of reported child’s absenteeism between Zambezia and Maputo Province (28% and 2%, respectively). There is a similarly an enormous gap between the north and the south in educational attainment: less than a third (28%) of all pupils are on track in Cabo Delgado compared to 91 per cent in Maputo city.

>

Access to community infrastructure is one of the factors underlying this disparity: Pupils attending school frequently or those who are on track are more likely to come from schools located in settings with good infrastructure.

>

Pre-school attendance remains the privilege for few: Only 5.6 per cent of parents report that their child had prior access to pre-school. Pre-school attendance increases the odds that a child will be on track almost three-fold, regardless of their age or sex, but is strongly correlated with family wealth and location (living in the southern province).

75

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

7.

KEY DRIVERS OF ABSENTEEISM AND SCHOOL ATTAINMENT

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

The bivariate analysis on selected indicators presented in earlier sections allowed to explore the relationship between educational outcomes of interest and selected child-, family-, school- and community-level characteristics. This section presents the results of a logistic regression analysis used to confirm the relative strength and direction of the observed association with outcome variables while controlling for other relevant characteristics. Outcomes of interest are: (i) a child’s frequent school attendance; and (ii) the probability of being on track. The probability of a child’s absence in the last two days prior to the interview was also analysed (see results in Annex VI, Table 1). Following the theoretical model and established hypothesis, the potential predictors were modelled in a stepwise progression, following these hierarchical categories: at the pupil level (e.g. pupil’s age, sex, preschool attendance); family level (e.g. wealth and parents’ education); the school level (e.g. textbooks, sanitary facilities in the school, teachers’ experience/qualifications, frequency of school council meetings and school supervision); and the community level (e.g. access to infrastructure/services, climate shocks and regions). Table 8 presents the results of the most robust models17 predicting frequent primary school attendance, and the probability of being on track independently from living location or region. Highlighted below are some of the main hindering and enabling factors associated with the main outcomes.

7.1 FACTORS THAT HINDER ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

recurrent absenteeism negatively affects the likelihood of the child’s expected grade progression.

There is strong evidence supporting the conceptual framework adopted for this report, showing that recurrent absenteeism (i.e. missing school on the day prior to and the day of the interview)) negatively affects the likelihood of the child’s expected grade progression. The analysis showed that missing one of the last two days of schools reduces the likelihood of being on track by 25 per cent (odds ratio [OR] 0.75) after controlling for regional variations. The results are consistent with observational measure of school attendance: a one unit increase in attendance score increases the odds of being on track by a factor of 4.7, controlling for all other characteristics. Hence, absenteeism should be recognized as an immediate problem to be tackled to improve educational outcomes.

Both household poverty and deprivation can hinder a child’s likelihood of progressing in school, controlling for other child, school and community characteristics. An increase in one wealth quintile is associated with a 28 per cent increase in the child’s odds of being on track (OR 1.28). Further analysis not presented here showed nonsignificant gains between the first and second wealth quintile, indicating that, in the context of Mozambique, these two groups might have very similar, unobserved attributes. A particularly strong effect of the third or fourth wealth quintile was observed. Holding everything else constant (including access to infrastructure), a child living in such households is about three times more likely to be on track than a child living in a family in the first wealth quintile. The effect of wealth on a child’s frequent attendance lost statistical significance after controlling for communitylevel access to infrastructure. This points to the compounding effects of household and structural (community-level) factors. In addition, alternative models testing (a) The svy command in Stat was used to address the complex sampling design for both the calculation of the point estimates and the standard errors of these estimates. (b) A logistic model provides a better fit to the data if it demonstrates an improvement over the intercept-only model (also called the ‘null model’). The F test result is statistically significant (p=0.004). (c) The logistic regression was run with and without the region variable, and generally showed a high sensitivity of the included variable to unobserved regional factors.

17

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

for a relationship between household level and covariate shocks and educational outcomes of interest showed no significant relationship. This could be further explored with the next round of data where it will be possible to construct a longitudinal panel, and data could capture the effects of devastation caused by the Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, which hit the country in 2019.

Supporting the original hypothesis, remoteness of the school can hinder attendance.

Children living more than 30 minutes away from a primary school type 1 (Grade 1–5) are around 30 per cent less likely than their peers to attend school frequently (OR 0.7). With over 90 per cent of children making their school journey on foot, this may not only reflect the distance, but also safety concerns, particularly for younger children.

The model included a factor that reflects cultural traditions and norms – a child’s experience of initiation rites. While some negative association emerged between initiation rites and frequent attendance (reduction in the likelihood of attendance by 37%, OR 0.63), the relationship with the child’s expected grade progression is more nuanced. No statistical effect of the variable was observed until the northern region dummy was included in the model. The data seem to counteract the effect of living in a northern region: if taken independently, the correlation with the northern region makes initiation rites insignificant. When effect is separated from the region, a strong positive effect of initiation rites on the likelihood of being on track is observed. The fact that this cultural tradition is predominantly a phenomenon in the central and particularly the northern regions, and significantly more prevalent among Muslim populations may suggest the compounding effects of religion and other unobserved characteristics associated with this experience. Further analysis on cultural factors and norms would be necessary to unpack these associations.

Finally, geographical and structural differences are by far the most powerful compounding factors and possible drivers of disparity in educational outcomes of interest, even after controlling for access to basic infrastructure. The latter has a significant, independent effect on the likelihood of being on track before controlling for regions. Children living in areas with better infrastructure are on average five times more likely to be in the expected grade according to age than their peers from less developed areas. Children living in the northern provinces are about 77 per cent less likely to attend school frequently (OR 0.23) and 87 per cent less likely to be in the expected grade than those living in the southern provinces. Holding all else constant, children from the central region are 65 per cent less likely to maintain regular attendance and 75 per cent less likely to be on track than their peers from the south.

7.2 FACTORS ENABLING BETTER OUTCOMES

It is also equally important to highlight the school-level factors that can facilitate improvements in the educational outcomes of interest. Two factors – supervision visits by district authorities and years of teacher’s experience in the current school – are strongly associated with positive outcomes influence even after controlling for family, child and community characteristics.

Each additional supervision visit carried out in each school by the district authorities increases the odds of pupils’ regular attendance by 15 per cent (OR = 1.15). This finding on school management is important because it shows that better governance and regular monitoring within the educational system can be effective in reducing chronic non-attendance. It may be associated with stronger school management at the district level or better communication between the different branches of the 79

Children living in areas with better infrastructure are on average

5 x MORE

LIKELY TO BE IN THE EXPECTED GRADE ACCORDING TO AGE THAN THEIR PEERS FROM LESS DEVELOPED AREAS.

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

school governance system. School councils, in contrast, were tested but did not prove to be statistically significant predictors of pupils’ frequent attendance; this might relate to the quality of the interaction within the school council rather than its existence. Further rounds of the survey and qualitative research could further investigate this aspect in the context of Mozambique, particularly in the context of observed differences between rural and urban schools.

Years of teachers’ professional experience in the same school are associated with a 29 per cent higher likelihood that a child will be on track (OR 1.27). This probably reflects not only the skills and competencies of the teacher (overall teacher quality), but also the overall school climate and the relationship between the teachers and pupils, where the teacher knows all of the pupils well, and understands and responds better to their needs. Teachers’ professional qualifications and overall years of experience were tested, but proved to be statistically insignificant. This is an important finding, suggesting that retainment and the provision of incentives for experienced teachers should be among the top policy priorities.

Years of teachers’ professional experience in the same school are associated with a

29% HIGHER

A child’s pre-school attendance is associated with better primary school attendance.

It reduces the likelihood of missing school in the last two days prior to the interview by 50 per cent (Annex V, Table 1). But the association is not independent from the region and loses significance once regions are included in the model. In addition, as mentioned earlier in section 6, pre-school attendance shows a strong significant relationship with the probability of a child being on track, controlling for sex and age, but before controlling for household wealth. The sensitivity of this variable to the region (northern and central compared to the southern regions) and wealth factors reflect the overall demographics of children benefiting from pre-school provision in Mozambique, where there is a high concentration of mostly private provision in the southern region.

LIKELIHOOD THAT A CHILD WILL BE ON TRACK.

SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS

>

Confirming bivariate analysis, the structural and socio-economic disparity between regions greatly explains the likelihood of better or worse educational outcomes, with children in the northern provinces faring significantly worse.

>

Independent factors that affect better outcomes: Missing the day prior to and the day of the interview, regardless of the reason, negatively affects a pupil’s likelihood of being on track. Household poverty reduces the likelihood of being on track, even after controlling for regional location. Living far from school (more than 30 minutes away) is a factor that hinders regular school attendance in remote areas of the northern and central provinces.

>

Enabling factors: The number of school supervision visits increases the likelihood of the pupil’s regular attendance by 15 per cent, while teacher’s experience in that school improves the pupil’s likelihood of being on track by 27 per cent, controlling for all other characteristics. Multivariate analysis also suggested that, although the school material resources such as pupils’ textbooks, notebooks and others are important for outcomes of interest, they are not independent from other school-level factors.

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TABLE 8. RESULTS OF LOGIT REGRESSION ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CHILD’S FREQUENT ATTENDANCE AND BEING 'ON TRACK'.

Likelihood of frequent attendance

Child age

Age of child squared

Being a girl

Pre-school attendance

Family wealth

Initiation rites

Distance to school

Teacher’s experience

School supervision visits

Access to infrastructure

Likelihood of being 'on track'

(Model 1)

(Model 2)

(Model 1)

(Model 2)

Odds ratio

Odds ratio

Odds ratio

Odds ratio

0.932

0.965

0.177***

0.179***

(0.112)

(0.112)

(0.0472)

(0.0508)

1.001

1.000

1.040***

1.038***

(0.00490)

(0.00470)

(0.0122)

(0.0132)

1.054

1.092

1.291*

1.470***

(0.143)

(0.150)

(0.176)

(0.205)

1.240

0.932

1.398

0.993

(0.452)

(0.337)

(0.327)

(0.237)

1.099

1.085

1.296***

1.288***

(0.0672)

(0.0666)

(0.0870)

(0.0838)

0.483***

0.631**

1.115

1.868***

(0.0914)

(0.116)

(0.219)

(0.348)

0.769

0.666**

1.241

1.017

(0.134)

(0.117)

(0.214)

(0.165)

1.028

1.027

1.223**

1.267**

(0.0813)

(0.0837)

(0.116)

(0.121)

1.132**

1.150**

0.962

0.974

(0.0679)

(0.0736)

(0.0664)

(0.0644)

2.455

1.835

5.582**

3.372*

(1.373)

(1.034)

(3.777)

(2.309)

0.694***

0.736***

(0.0763)

(0.0817)

Absent two days prior to the interview

Northern region

Central region

Constant

No. of observations

0.232***

0.136***

(0.0880)

(0.0416)

0.352***

0.248***

(0.132)

(0.0740)

11.05***

28.07***

259,923***

1.078e+06***

(8.371)

(23.11)

(391,102)

(1.791e+06)

4,050

4,050

3,837

3,837

Notes: The standard error term is in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. See the full information about variables included in the model in Annex VII. See the full information about variables included in the model in Annex VII. Table note: Models ‘1’ are before controlling for regionals variations and models ‘2’ include dummies for regions.

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8.

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

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The first round of the ALDE survey provides nationally representative data on girls’ and boys’ primary school attendance and grade progression, highlighting demandand supply-level factors that facilitate as well as hinder these school outcomes.

The socio-ecological systems theory, with its focus on relationships, is used to test hypothesizes on the interlinked influences of family-, school- and community-level factors on a child’s participation in primary school in Mozambique. The findings presented in this report strongly support the underlying framework and show that focusing on school or family factors alone is not enough to address system failures reflected in the high level of absenteeism and low levels of educational attainment.

The evidence presented also points to the need for fostering communication and joint collaboration of different actors (caregivers, school and community) in addressing demand- as well as supply-side constraints for achieving better outcomes for primary school children. Some key policy messages are summarized below.

Low grade progression and a wide age distribution (from four to 22 years olds) of the ALDE child population sample are indicators of inherited inefficiencies of the primary school system. Seventeen per cent of all pupils in primary school are adolescents (13–18), who are expected to be in secondary school. Grade progression deteriorates rapidly from the beginning of primary school (aged 8–9), with nearly one in five 11-year-olds (18%) still attending attending Grade 1. The analysis confirms that the older the child becomes, the less likely he or she will stay on track, with the likelihood of catching up to their more successful peers diminishing every year. This can lead to the loss of motivation (mentioned by many caregivers as one of the reasons for poor attendance), age-appropriate skills and knowledge, which in turn can result in dropout. Policy interventions must target early school years with a particular focus on Grade 2, where one of the highest levels of grade repetitions observed.

Addressing pupils’ absenteeism is the first critical step towards improving expected grade progression. Based on the observational spot-check method, on average, a child attended the school only 61 per cent of the time (with a median of 3.4 observations per child). Around one in three (32%) children missed school one of the two days prior to the interview. As outlined by the conceptual framework and demonstrated by the multivariate analysis, pupils’ absenteeism contributes directly to and independently from the low educational attainment. Preventing and reducing absenteeism and increasing pupils’ motivation for learning are necessary pre-conditions for better educational attainment outcomes for both girls and boys.

Girls require more academic and social support from the onset of puberty than boys. According to the analysis presented in this report, on average, girls are more likely than boys to be on track after accounting for all other characteristics.

Yet, at the age of 12 to 13, more girls start falling one year behind their male peers.

Moreover, girls are underrepresented in the adolescent age category (13–18), which raises questions and reinforces concerns about adolescent girls’ paths beyond and out of the primary school. Puberty is a critical time in girls’ development and school progression when the school, the family and the community need to work together to encourage and support the continuation of girls’ education.

Household wealth, measured through the index of household assets, is an independent barrier for pupil’s chances of being on track in their studies according to age, but it is rooted in the structural inequalities in the country.

The findings contribute to the body of literature from low-income countries that 84

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finds a strong association between family wealth and school outcomes. Qualitative responses of caregivers provided insight into the complex interplay of poverty and poor school conditions: a lack of desks forces pupils to study sitting on the floor, which in turn leads to the lack of clean clothes (uniform) to wear the next day, resulting in their missing school. Due to the lack of adequate nutrition, a child might have low concentration and motivation for learning. While it is the role of social protection to address income risks and vulnerabilities, the education sector can play an important role in ensuring the provision of basic classroom conditions, school infrastructure (e.g. access to water) and school feeding programmes.

Weak communication between parents and schools impede caregiver’s enforcement and support of child’s school attendance. Better attendance and grade progression can be achieved when decisions about the school are taken in a participatory process, which involves the school, parents and the community, as well as the pupils (Kraft and Dougherty, 2013). In the study, caregivers report alarmingly low levels of communication between teachers and parents, especially in the northern areas of the country. The education authorities must take measures to enhance communication and engagement between school management, teachers, the family and the community in order to make decisions that matter for children.

An inclusive and safe school environment is essential condition for learning. It is of great concern that physical violence (punches, hits, etc.) is the most commonly given reason for children’s complaints about other pupils and teachers (17% and 7%, respectively). Violence in schools should not be tolerated, and educational authorities and communities can play an important role in tackling this problem.

The education sector policy has to acknowledge the issue as a policy area requiring urgent actions.

School material resources matter, but school management can also make a difference. In a country like Mozambique, the lack of basic facilities, equipped learning spaces and teaching resources, such as desks for pupils to sit on, textbooks, maps and other instructional materials, is a reality for hundreds of schools, particularly in the centre and north. The results show that any school resources that create a basic learning environment have an important impact not only on regular attendance, but also on the overall system quality, measured here by pupils’ educational attainment. But they are not enough to secure better primary school results. School management – captured through supervision visits conducted by district authorities – is shown to have a significant effect on improving the frequency of school attendance, controlling for all other factors. While not a substitute for better investments in school infrastructure and/or support to teachers, more frequent monitoring of schools is a feasible policy measure within an immediate or short-term reach.

Basic water and sanitation facilities are paramount to ensuring regular school attendance and successful attainment for all children, particularly for girls.

The results, particularly important in the COVID-19 context, show the importance of ensuring not only access, but also privacy of sanitary facilities. Privacy is a critical condition for adolescent girls given their needs for safety and menstrual hygiene services in addition to sanitation coverage. The findings suggest that, in addition to the practical benefits for all children, improved access to water and sanitation facilities could also address key emotional and physical aspects underlying girls’ absenteeism.

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Teachers with more experienced are more likely to ensure pupils’ ageappropriate progression through primary school. The importance of a comprehensive approach to the professional advancement of teachers in Mozambique has been discussed elsewhere (Bassi, Medina Pedreira and Nhampossa, 2019). It can be argued that years of experience is an aggregate measure not only of their pedagogical skills and knowledge, but also for the psychosocial competencies that allow them to ensure better results for pupils.

The results point to the relative importance of years in service vs. qualifications.

This suggests that policies focused on the retention of experienced teachers and on-the-job incentives should not be overlooked.

Pre-school formal learning can boost educational attainment in primary school. With the exception of some pilot initiatives, in Mozambique there is no public provision of pre-school education. Therefore, it is not surprising that only 5.4 per cent of caregivers reported on their child’s attendance in such a programme.

The study shows that pre-school provision has a pronounced, positive effect on reducing child’s recurrent absenteeism and on school progression, but the effect is not independent from family wealth and regional distribution. Roll-out of affordable pre-school education in the basic education cycle through accelerated summer programmes or other low-cost initiatives should be a top education policy priority in the coming years.

Regional disparity in the level of absenteeism and educational attainment mirrors the entrenched socio-economic gap between the northern and the southern regions, and demonstrates direct linkages between the economic and human development of the country. The deterioration of all measured educational outcomes along the geographic vector (from south to the north) is staggering. Regional differences remain highly significant after accounting for various family and school socio-economic characteristics. As a proxy for socioeconomic opportunities, regional disparities reflect an unequal distribution of public investments in infrastructure and services, and limited labour market opportunities for young people, which suppress their aspirations for education. Addressing the unequal allocation of resources is an urgent policy task that goes beyond the education sector and vital to prevent a further deterioration of youth’s productive engagement.

Recommended policy actions Evidence presented in this report suggests that policy action must be systematic, comprehensive and sustainable, in support of both the demand- and supplyside of education. Three broad policy areas deserve the immediate attention of policymakers in the education sector in Mozambique. The ‘asks’ include but are not limited to the following:

IMPROVEMENT OF SCHOOL GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT >

Reinforce regular inspection visits by the educational directorates (at least three per academic year).

>

Increase in-job incentives to retain experienced teachers and develop measures that encourage them to take up posts in the most challenging locations.

SCHOOL CLIMATE AND COMMUNICATION BETWEEN PARENTS, THE 86

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

COMMUNITY AND THE SCHOOL > Introduce

accountability

measures

that

enforce

regular,

direct

communication between the school (teacher) and caregivers. >

Enhance the capacity of school councils to further improve communication between schools and communities.

>

Provide further pedagogical attention and support to girls, especially those in the 11–13 age group, i.e. who are entering puberty, in order to ensure that they continue to be on track with grade progression.

> Provide information to school practitioners and guidance to adolescent girls, especially those entering puberty, on good menstrual hygiene management (MHM) to ensure that they have practical knowledge and feel understood and supported within the school environment. >

Ensure that boys and girls feel safe and protected in schools by reinforcing universal values of respect (including gender-based respect), non-violence and responsibility by providing relevant training and raising awareness among them and the teachers. Following the principles of child’s confidentiality and protection, establish a transparent mechanism of school response to pupils’ complaints.

SCHOOL FINANCING > Introduce a fair resource allocation formula that supports the schools that are most in need of resources, particularly those in rural areas and northern provinces in order to ensure that children who are at the highest risk of falling behind have equal access to adequate school conditions. > Ensure that resources are also allocated for basic school materials for every child for home and school use (i.e.text books, pencils, notebooks, etc.) to improve the quality of instruction as well as homework motivation. >

Allocate more funds for the Apoio Directo às Escolas (ADE, Direct Support to Schools) and school feeding programmes based on geographical targeting – i.e. the provinces identified by ALDE as lagging severely behind in education attainment and pupils’ attendance.

> Accelerate the construction or rehabilitation of resilient classrooms with adequate equipment as well as water and sanitation facilities (WASH) that ensure privacy (separate facilities for boys and girls with doors and locks in place). > Expand pre-school education, especially by scaling up the accelerated school readiness programme pilots, to areas with the lowest level of attendance and educational attainment.

These measures, together with many others that the MINEDH engaged in as a part of the ten-year Education Sector Strategic Plan, are realistic and concrete steps to give every child in Mozambique an equal chance at completing primary school. ALDE offers a unique opportunity to monitor changes and provide feedback on progress.

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Watson, N. and Wooden, M. (2009). Identifying factors affecting longitudinal survey response. In P. Lynn, ed. Methodology of longitudinal surveys (pp. 157–181). Chichester, Wiley.

World Bank (2005).Mozambique: Poverty and social impact analysis: Primary school enrolment and retention. The impact of school fees. Report N. 29423–MZ. Available from http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/185561468775510405/ pdf/294230MZ.pdf World Bank (2017). Republic of Mozambique. Education Sector Support Project. Washington, D.C. World Bank (2018). Facing Forward: Schooling and Learning in Africa. Washington, D.C. World Bank (2019). Education Service Delivery in Mozambique: A Second round of the Service Delivery Indicators Survey.

Washington, D.C. World Bank and UNICEF (2009). Abolishing school fees in Africa: Lessons from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, and Mozambique. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Health Organization and UNICEF (2018). Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene in Schools: Global Baseline Report.

Geneva.

Yamamoto, Y. and Holloway (2010). Parental expectations and children's academic performance in sociocultural context. S.D. Educ Psychol Rev, 22 (3): 189–214.

93

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

ANNEXES

94

COPYRIGHTS (ORGANIZATION/YEAR/PHOTOGRAPHER: UNICEF/2018/ZLATA BRUCKAUF)

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

95

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

ANNEX I. 2018 SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRES TABLE 1. QUESTIONNAIRE STRUCTURE OF THE ALDE 2018 ROUND Questionnaire

1.School

2.Teacher

Sections

Method

A.

School openness

Observation

B.

School principal attendance

Observation

C.

Characteristics of school principal

D.

School information

E.

Enrolment information

Interview with the school principal

F.

School facilities

Observation

A.

Teacher attendance

Observation

B.

Classroom materials and conditions

Observation

C.

Teacher characteristics

Interview with a class tutor

D.

Number of pupils and other class characteristics

Module A: Information on selected child A.

Socio-demographic characteristics

B.

School attendance

C.

Progress in school

D.

Relationship (with teacher, other children and family)

Interview with a class tutor

Module B: Information on selected child

3.Child

A.

Socio-demographic characteristics

B.

School attendance

C.

Progress in school and pre-school attendance

D.

Parents information

E.

Child’s economic activities

F.

Use of time

G.

School costs

H.

Caregiver’s knowledge, attitudes and expectations

I.

Relationship (with teacher, other children)

J.

Access to school related information

Interview with a caregiver

Module C: Information on the child’s family A.

Socio-economic characteristics (household roster)19

B.

Education (household roster)

C.

Economic activities (household roster)

D.

Access to healthcare

E.

Housing conditions

F.

Shocks and coping mechanisms

G.

Assets and livestock ownership

H.

Household economic perception

L.

Contact information (telephone numbers)

Interview with the head of household

Observation

Module D: Child attendance check

4.

Community leader

19

A.

Community leader characteristics

B.

School information

C.

Access to information in the community

D.

Community socio-economic characteristics

E.

Services available

F.

Natural disasters and coping strategies

G.

Security issues

H.

Community well-being

Household roster collects information for all household members

96

Interview with a community leader

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

ANNEX II. STATISTICS ON SCHOOL–LEVEL INDICATORS TABLE 1. FREQUENCY OF PUPILS’ NON-ATTENDANCE BY TEACHER’S AGE AND SEX Child attends frequently

Teacher’s sex

Teacher’s age

No. 2,537 2,158 29 574 1,298 980 914 853 33.3 (0.12)

Male Female <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 or over Age mean

Child attends infrequently (non-attendance)

% 54 46 0.6 12.2 27.4 21.4 20.2 18.2

No. 352 188 2 81 151 144 77 63 31.7 (0.34)

% 65.2 34.8 0.4 15.3 28.7 28.4 14.8 12.5

Chi =24.3

T-test =-4.66

p<0001

p<0.0001 Source: ALDE 2018

TABLE 2. PUPILS ‘ON TRACK’ AND ‘NOT ON TRACK’ OF THEIR STUDIES, BY TEACHER’S AGE AND SEX

Teacher’s sex

Teacher’s age

Pupil ‘on track’ No. % 1,224 45.3 1,417 54.7 10 0.3 253 9.5 686 25.7 564 21.9 551 21.7 539 20.9 34.0(8.9)

Male Female <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40 or over Age mean (SD)

Pupil ‘not on track’ No. % 1,853 61.3 1,128 38.7 21 0.7 467 16.0 902 30.6 633 22.4 473 16.6 406 13.8 31.9(8.2)

Chi-square Test value p-value 141.353

<0.001

109.610

<0.001

8.895*

<0.001* Source: ALDE 2018

TABLE 3. PUPILS’ ATTENDANCE AND TEACHER’S ACADEMIC AND PROFESSIONAL TRAINING Pupil attends frequently Pupil does not attends frequently No. Primary education Secondary 1st cycle Secondary 2nd cycle Basic vocational Medium-level vocational Bachelor degree Licenciatura1

21 517 2,419 189 975 99 395

7ª + 32 10+23 10+1+1 10+34 10+1 12+1 Other5 No training

170 1,119 128 428 1,921 510 92 91 236

Academic qualification % No. 0.5 2 11.2 88 52.4 244 4.1 11 21.1 81 2.1 4 8.6 26 Pedagogical training 3.6 20 24.2 90 2.7 9 9.2 57 40.2 286 10.9 60 2.0 4 2.0 4 5.2 10

% 0.4 19.3 53.5 2.4 17.8 0.9 5.7

Chi-square =15.3 p=0.018

3.8 16.8 1.7 11.0 52.1 11.1 0.8 0.8 1.9 Source: ALDE 2018

Notes: 1.The Licenciatura degree is obtained after completing certain higher education studies lasting between four and six years.

2. Including 6ª + 3 3. Including 9ª + 2 4. Including 9ª + 3 and 10ª + 2.5 5. Includes 6ª + 0.5; 6ª + 1 and 7ª + 1 + 1.

97

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

TABLE 4. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND TEACHERS’ ACADEMIC AND PROFESSIONAL TRAINING Pupil 'on track' No.

Pupil 'not on track'

%

No.

%

20

0.7

Chi-Square Test value

p-value

147.657

<0.001

145.622

<0.001

Academic qualifications Primary education

8

0.3

Secondary 1st cycle

276

10.2

347

11.3

Secondary 2st cycle

1,367

52.0

1,580

53.6

Basic vocational

97

3.6

158

5.3

Medium vocational

496

18.2

666

21.9

Bachelor’s degree

73

2.7

34

1.1

Licenciatura

324

13.0

176

6.1

1

Pedagogical training 7ª + 32

116

4.3

95

3.3

10+23

714

27.5

526

17.8

10+1+1 10+34 10+1 12+1 Other

5

No training

51

1.9

88

3.0

243

9.4

269

9.1

1,008

37.3

1,422

47.1

240

9.1

394

13.2

216

8.4

142

5.0

53

2.1

45

1.5 Source: ALDE 2018

TABLE 5. PUPILS 'ON TRACK' AND PUPILS 'NOT ON TRACK', ACCORDING TO CLASSROOM CONDITIONS AND POSSESSION OF SCHOOL MATERIALS Pupil 'on track'

Pupil 'not on track'

Mean

SE

Mean

SE

Number of pupils in the classroom

38.5

0.44

33.4

0.39

T=8.5

p<0.001

Number of pupils with textbooks

28.0

0.36

23.7

0.31

T=8.8

p<0.001

Number of pupils with pencils

31.4

0.39

26.5

0.33

T=9.5

p<0.001

Number of pupils with exercise books

30.0

0.40

24.3

0.35

T=10.7

p<0.001

Chi-Square23.0

p<0.001

Chis 4.4

p=0.10

23.3

p<0.001

Permanent Type of classroom

In the classroom, do you have desks for the pupils?

No.

%

No.

No.

1,893

71.7

1,965

65.9

Semi-permanent

246

9.3

363

12.2

Temporary

502

19.2

653

21.9

1,223

46.3

1,369

45.9

Yes, for everyone Yes, but not enough

447

16.9

452

15.2

No

971

36.8

1,160

38.9

310

11.7

238

7.9

Access to library

Source: ALDE 2018

Notes: 1.The Licenciatura degree obtained after completing certain higher education studies lasting between four and six years.

2. Including 6ª + 3 3. Including 9ª + 2 4. Including 9ª + 3 and 10ª + 2.5 5. Includes 6ª + 0.5; 6ª + 1 and 7ª + 1 + 1.

98

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

TABLE 6. PUPILS’ SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AND SCHOOL PRINCIPAL PROFILES Attends frequently

Gender

No.

%

No.

%

Male

3,671

78.1

426

78.8

Female

1,024

21.9

114

21.2

73

1.7

12

2.4

25–29

Chi-square* Test value

p-value

0.139

0.709

15.528

0.001

SD t-test value*

p-value

30–34

445

9.0

79

14.1

35–39

1,115

24.0

130

23.5

40 or over

2973

65.3%

317

60.0%

Age

Age mean Mean

SD

Mean

Male

44.2

7.4

42.9

7.6

3,586

< 0.001

Female

42.4

8.0

43.4

8.6

-1,252

0.213

All

43.8

7.6

43.0

7.8

2,393

0.017

100,591

< 0..001

Primary education

Academic qualification

Does not attend frequently

42

0.8%

20

3.4%

Secondary 1st cycle

420

8.4%

40

7.0%

Secondary 2nd cycle

1,903

40.4%

304

56.5%

Basic-level technical education

173

3.3%

4

0.7%

Medium-level technical teaching

325

6.8%

32

5.9%

Bachelor degree Licenciatura Master’s degree

86

1.7%

2

0.3%

1,492

33.1%

113

21.5%

76

1.8%

8

1.7%

Note: 1.The Licenciatura degree is obtained after completing certain higher education studies lasting between four and six years.

99

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

ANNEX III. STATISTICS ON WATER AND SANITATION INDICATORS TABLE 1. SUMMARY STATISTICS OF WASH VARIABLES AND ASSOCIATED OUTCOME MEASURES Variable

Case - n (%) Attendance - n N = 5,364 (%) N = 5,364

Attainment - n (%) N = 5,364

Absenteeism during the lasttwo days – n (%) N = 256*

School water Primary water source Piped water

1,009 (18.8)

915

(96.7)

758

(76.9)

3

(7.9)

Public water point

1,095 (20.4)

935

(89.7)

676

(62.5)

26

(40.6)

Handpump

877 (16.3)

782

(92.8)

441

(51.6)

13

(43.3)

Protected well

363

(6.8)

289

(89.2)

234

(65.0)

15

(100.0)

Unprotected well

828 (15.4)

682

(89.0)

512

(62.7)

21

(80.8)

Rainwater

309

(5.8)

277

(93.3)

180

(59.2)

4

(57.1)

Surface water (river, lake, etc.)

434

(8.1)

328

(78.7)

202

(46.8)

9

(60.0)

No water source

269

(5.0)

243

(92.8)

173

(65.4)

0

(0.0)

Other

180

(3.4)

164

(94.8)

142

(82.1)

0

(0.0)

1,817 (33.9)

1,595

(94.8)

1,269

(71.6)

11

(16.2)

Distance to primary water source In school premises Out of school premises (<5 minutes)

1,243 (23.2)

1,103

(90.1)

738

(60.2)

21

(50.0)

Out of school premises (≥5 minutes)

2,304 (43.0)

1,917

(88.6)

1,311

(57.6)

59

(63.4)

1,088 (20.3)

1,958

(93.5)

1,398

(64.1)

36

(36.7)

969 (17.1)

823

(93.1)

626

(69.4)

10

(40.0)

Unimproved latrine

2,220 (41.4)

892

(87.1)

688

(64.7)

10

(34.5)

No latrine

1,140 (21.3)

942

(88.2)

606

(53.7)

35

(68.6)

Yes

2,282 (51.2)

2,022

(94.4)

1,427

(64.1)

31

(30.4)

No

2,179 (48.8)

1.839

(88.3)

1,272

(59.0)

54

(66.7)

Yes

631 (14.6)

603

(97.0)

505

(82.4)

2

(18.2)

No

3,691 (85.4)

3,154

(90.7)

2,261

(62.3)

54

(38.3)

Yes

3,321 (76.8)

2,919

(92.5)

2,093

(64.3)

50

(37.9)

No

1.001 (23.2)

838

(88.8)

673

(68.1)

6

(30.0)

School sanitation Latrine type Improved latrine Improved traditional latrine

Latrine has a door and walls

Water available inside latrines

School has separates latrines for boys and girls

Girls’ latrines can be locked from the inside Yes

1,226 (53.7)

-

-

-

-

15

(31.9)

No

1.056 (46.3)

-

-

-

-

16

(29.1)

255

(97.0)

190

(72.0)

2

(28.6)

Latrine cleanliness Very clean

271

(6.4)

Clean

2,123 (50.3)

1,864

(91.2)

1,373

(66.1)

16

(24.2)

Dirty

1,437 (34.0)

1,254

(91.3)

874

(61.6)

31

(58.5)

300

(93.5)

275

(70.9)

7

(26.9)

Very dirty

393

100

(9.3)

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

Variable

Case - n (%) Attendance - n N = 5,364 (%) N = 5,364

Attainment - n (%) N = 5,364

Absenteeism during the lasttwo days – n (%) N = 256*

School hygiene School has a handwashing station Yes, water and soap/ash

195

(4.5)

161

(93.1)

75

(39.3)

2

(50.0)

Yes, only water

553 (12.8)

523

(96.1)

415

(76.6)

1

(5.3)

Yes, but no water or soap/ash

(4.2)

152

(91.0)

94

(54.3)

2

(40.0)

3,393 (78.5)

2,921

(90.1)

2,182

(65.4)

51

(41.1)

<10 minutes

1,441 (39.6)

1,261

(92.1)

881

(62.1)

31

(43.7)

No

181

Household water Distance to primary water source (round trip) 10–30 minutes

1,277 (35.1)

1,070

(90.2)

717

(56.8)

28

(48.3)

30–60 minutes

528 (14.5)

466

(93.2)

300

(57.9)

5

(41.7)

≥60 minutes

396 (10.9)

321

(86.5)

206

(53.5)

5

(55.6)

3,812 (88.1)

Regular water collection by schoolchild 3,300

(91.6)

2,415

(64.4)

54

(45.4)

Yes, by schoolboy

No

243

(5.6)

201

(88.2)

93

(38.9)

6

(85.7)

Yes, by schoolgirl

273

(6.3)

238

(92.6)

124

(46.4)

13

(28.9)

Improved latrine

971 (20.6)

919

(97.4)

813

(85.6)

12

(38.7)

Improved traditional latrine

491 (10.4)

430

(91.9)

321

(66.6)

13

(65.0)

Unimproved latrine

2,069 (43.9)

1,750

(89.9)

1,171

(57.5)

40

(39.6)

No latrine

1,169 (24.8)

990

(90.5)

626

(54.5)

11

(35.5)

(0.2)

9

(90.0)

6

(60.0)

1

(100.0)

Yes

4,314 (81.2)

-

-

-

-

30

(36.6)

No

1,000 (18.8)

-

-

-

-

60

(50.4)

Household sanitation Latrine type

Do not know

10

Other Participation in initiation ritual

* Only girls who had had menarche are included.

101

RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

TABLE 2. LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR SCHOOL ATTENDANCE Unadjusted (n = 3,870)

Variables Latrine has a door and walls Gender of child Child attended pre-school education Child has a textbook Household wealth

Caregiver’s education level

OR† (95% CI‡) P value Ref. 1.99 (1.07, 3.74) 0.010 Ref. 1.25 (0.93, 1.67) 0.130 Ref. 1.03 (0.50, 2.14) 0.916 Ref. 2.30 (1.61, 3.31) <0.001 Ref. (0.00, 0.04) 0.75 (0.49, 1.13) 0.162 0.76 (0.46, 1.27) 0.292 1.48 (0.89, 2.44) 0.125 4.10 (1.66, 10.16) 0.003 Ref. 2.15 (1.00, 4.63) 0.051 0.92 (0.49, 1.73) 0.796 0.40 (0.11, 1.48) 0.165

No Yes Male Female No Yes No Yes st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile 1st quartile 2nds quartile 3rd quartile 4th quartile

Adjusted* (n = 3,862) OR§ (95% CI‡) P value Ref. 2.04 (1.09, 3.81) 0.027 Ref. 1.22 (0.91, 1.63) 0.176 Ref. 0.99 (0.49, 1.99) 0.974 Ref. 2.33 (1.62, 3.35) <0.001 Ref. 0.73 (0.48, 1.11) 0.140 0.77 (0.46, 1.27) 0.294 1.41 (0.86, 2.32) 0.171 3.83 (0.86, 2.32) 0.004 Ref. 2.16 (1.00, 4.65) 0.050 0.87 (0.46, 1.64) 0.655 0.41 (0.11, 1.56) 0.186

* Adjusted model adjusts for age of child. † OR, odds ratio. ‡ 95% CI, 95% confidence interval. § aOR, adjusted odds ratio.

TABLE 3. LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR SCHOOL ATTAINMENT Variables Household has a latrine Water is available inside school latrine Water collection by study child

Sex of child Child attended pre-school education Teacher’s number of years’ experience

Household wealth

Caregiver’s education level

Northern provinces Central

No Yes No Yes No Yes, by schoolboy Yes, by schoolgirl Male Female No Yes 1 2 3 4 5 st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile 1st quartile 2nds quartile 3rd quartile 4th quartile No Yes No Yes

Unadjusted (n = 3,200) OR† (95% CI‡) P value Ref. 0.98 (0.67, 1.45) 0.937 Ref. 0.84 (0.44, 1.62) 0.601 Ref. 0.43 (0.28, 0.67) <0.001 0.36 (0.27, 0.49) <0.001 Ref. 1.40 (1.20, 1.64) <0.001 Ref. 1.41 (0.83, 2.41) 0.202 Ref. 1.64 (0.86, 3.14) 0.129 1.71 (0.90, 3.23) 0.098 1.83 (0.94, 3.55) 0.074 2.38 (1.19, 4.75) 0.015 Ref. 1.29 (1.04, 1.60) 0.023 1.30 (0.94, 1.79) 0.107 2.52 (1.70, 3.72) <0.001 3.10 (1.95, 4.95) <0.001 Ref. 1.06 (0.70, 1.59) 0.787 2.41 (1.51, 3.82) <0.001 1.53 (0.76, 3.07) 0.227 Ref. 0.17 (0.11, 0.28) <0.001 Ref. 0.24 (0.24, 0.06) <0.001

* Adjusted model adjusts for age of child. † OR, odds ratio. ‡ 95% CI, 95% confidence interval. § aOR, adjusted odds ratio.

102

Adjusted* (n = 3.200) aOR§ (95% CI‡) P value Ref. 2.01 (1.40, 2.89) <0.001 Ref. 0.41 (0.19, 0.90) 0.027 Ref. 1.25 (0.79, 2.00) 0.331 1.25 (0.86, 1.80) 0.229 Ref. 0.38 (0.34, 0.44) <0.001 Ref. 1.21 (0.68, 1.85) 0.647 Ref. 1.99 (0.72, 5.50) 0.177 2.22 (0.68, 7.30) 0.183 4.08 (1.37, 12.15) 0.013 4.68 (1.39, 15.69) 0.014 Ref. 1.23 (0.90, 1.66) 0.184 1.35 (0.91, 1.99) 0.127 2.69 (1.78, 4.07) <0.001 4.24 (2.29, 7.83) <0.001 Ref. 1.47 (0.81, 2.68) 0.197 2.51 (1.16, 5.46) 0.021 2.08 (0.97, 4.43) 0.059 Ref. 0.14 (0.86, 0.23) <0.001 Ref. 0.24 (0.14, 0.42) <0.001

ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

TABLE 4. LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR SCHOOL ABSENTEEISM IN THE LAST TWO DAYS PRIOR OF THE INTERVIEW Unadjusted (n = 166*)

Variables Improved water source in school premises Latrine has a door and walls Teacher’s experience (year)

OR‡ (95% CI§) No

Ref.

Yes

0.10

No

Ref.

Yes

0.15

1

Ref.

2

2.92

(0.32, 26.53)

0.328

3

0.19

(0.02, 1.45)

0.106

4

0.60

(0.17, 2.12) (0.04, 1.10)

Adjusted† (n = 166*) aOR|| (95% CI§)

P value

Ref. (0.02, 0.56)

(0;02, 0.58)

0.012

(0.04, 0.63)

0.011

2.86

(0.33, 25.24)

0.333

0.19

(0.02, 1.52)

0.114

0.415

0.60

(0.17, 2.11)

0.411

0.064

0.20

(0.04, 1.11)

0.066

(0.32, 2.27)

0.743

(0.08, 1.60)

0.170

0.010

0.10 Ref.

(0.04, 0.61)

0.009

0.16 Ref.

5

0.20

Gender of teacher

Male

Ref.

Female

0.86

Household wealth

1st quintile

Ref.

2nd quintile

0.35

(0.08, 1.59)

Ref. (0.33, 2.25)

0.752

0.85 Ref.

0.169

0.35

3 quintile

0.68

(0.21, 2.22)

0.517

0.67

(0.21, 2.13)

0.488

4th quintile

0.52

(0.10, 2.74)

0.431

0.51

(0.09, 2.84)

0.433

5th quintile

0.52

(0.08, 3.34)

0.486

0.51

(0.08, 3.15)

0.460

1st quartile

Ref.

2-4th quartiles

2.13

(0.65, 6.93)

0.201

rd

Caregiver’s education level

P value

Ref. (0.66, 6.91)

0.201

2.13

ANNEX IV. MEAN FREQUENCY OF ATTENDANCE, BY NUMBER OF COUNCIL MEETINGS TABLE 1. MEAN FREQUENCY OF ATTENDANCE, BY NUMBER OF COUNCIL MEETINGS Mean frequency of pupils' attendance Mean

Std. dev.

Freq.

Three or less council meetings in 2018

0.898239

0.302386

2,840

More than three council meetings in 2018

0.925146

0.263215

2,231

Total

0.910077

0.2861

5,071

* Only girls who had had menarche are included. † Adjusted model adjusts for age of child. ‡ OR, odds ratio. § 95% CI, 95% confidence interval. || OR, adjusted odds ratio.

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

ANNEX V. RESULTS OF LOGIT REGRESSION ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CHILD MISSING THE TWO LAST DAYS OF SCHOOL PRIOR TO THE INTERVIEW TABLE 1. RESULTS OF LOGIT REGRESSION ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CHILD’S MISSING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF SCHOOL PRIOR TO THE INTERVIEW Age child Age of child squared Sex of the child Pre-school Wealth indicator Initiation rites Distance to school Teacher’s experience Supervision visits Access to infrastructure

(Model 1) Odds ratio

(Model 2) Odds ratio

0.883 (0.0835) 1.006 (0.00427) 0.822* (0.0839) 0.504** (0.161) 0.881*** (0.0332) 1.121 (0.147) 1.023 (0.104) 0.998 (0.0384) 1.038 (0.0306) 0.0837*** (0.0245)

0.700 (0.369)

0.862 (0.0839) 1.006 (0.00442) 0.808** (0.0838) 0.770 (0.250) 0.950 (0.0387) 1.081 (0.149) 1.121 (0.119) 1.006 (0.0396) 1.073** (0.0312) 0.0743*** (0.0226) 5.032*** (1.293) 7.141*** (1.781) 0.122*** (0.0730)

3,850

3,850

Northern region Centre Constant

Observations SE in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

ANNEX VI. LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES TABLE 1. DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES Variable name

Variable label

Frequent attendance

Is the child attending the school? Teacher answer

Age of child squareds

Child age squared

Child’s gender

Sex of the child

Pre-school

Child has attended pre-school

Education of HH head

Household head education

Wealth indicator

Wealth index quintile

Initiation rites

Did the child participate in the rites of initiation?

Distance to school

dummy distance to primary school 1 more than 30 min

Complain about other children

Did the child ever complain about the other children?

Meals at school

Does the school provide food for pupils?

Performance book

Are you using the Pedagogical Performance Assessment Notebook for pupils

Teacher’s experience

Teacher’s years of experience (at this school)

Meeting of the council this year

Frequency of council meeting (in quartiles)

Supervision visits

How many times has the school received a supervision visit?

Access to infrastructure

Index of access to infrastructure

Aggregate shocks

Aggregated shocks

North

Northern region

Centre

Centre region

*Access to the Infrastructure Index: access to radio, TV, a library, electricity, running water, a latrine

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RESULTS OF THE 2018 ROUND

Fundo das Nações Unidas para a Infância (UNICEF) Av. do Zimbabwe, 1440 Caixa Postal 4713, Maputo Moçambique email: maputo@unicef.org www.unicef.org.mz © UNICEF, Maputo, Moçambique, 2020

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ATTENDANCE AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL CHILDREN IN MOZAMBIQUE

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