BY RYAN BLYTHE
The Break in the Clouds
We all know 2020 has been difficult. Instead of rehashing the pain of the past months, I want to offer some hope, as it relates to our economy, which has shown some positive signs recently, according to articles and statistics from Business Insider, CNBC and the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association. Beginning with manufacturing, 11 of the 13 indexes used by economists are trending positively. Steel consumption and appliances are the only two that are not. Sales of new vehicles are improving, but still not to pre-COVID-19 levels. Transportation parcels are booming, particularly with online sales, and metal prices are rising. As states continue to reopen, construction projects should increase steel usage, and the possibility of a major infrastructure program in 2021 is very attractive. Furniture sales are booming, as Americans refinance or purchase new homes, taking advantage of historically low interest rates. I spent six hours at a major furniture store in Atlanta recently, only to learn my purchases would be delayed for weeks, due to a lack of supply. Electronic sales also are strong, with the advent of teleworking and virtual schooling. The U.S. Commerce Department reports retail sales have increased for three consecutive months, and are now restored to pre-pandemic levels. While restaurants and bars continue to struggle, given government restrictions, they, too, have had three months of improved sales. Gas stations, clothing and drug stores are seeing their sales increase. Want to buy exercise equipment for home use? Much like my furniture experience, prepare to wait. Because so many people are building home gyms and purchasing new technologies like Peloton, the Mirror and E-Bikes, health clubs, which disproportionately were affected 36
AROUND ACWORTH | September 2020
Construction projects across the country continue, as Georgia Trade School graduates worked on the $3.3-billion USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship that was commissioned this summer.
by the pandemic, are struggling to regain members. As I traveled across the Southeast this summer, I regularly noticed help-wanted signs in hospitality jobs. A few conversations with hotel and restaurant managers confirmed my suspicion that they were not able to compete with the $600 per week federal unemployment benefits. Now, with that stimulus expiring, staffing agencies are reporting increased interest in service positions. Our unemployment rate is currently 10%, an improvement from the 14% in April, but nowhere near the 3.5% pre-COVID-19. We lost 21 million jobs (at least temporarily), but we should find some comfort in knowing there are 5 million current openings, and the third quarter should demonstrate increased interest in sidelined workers resuming. Also, we can take solace that 20 million jobs were created between the 2009 Great Recession and the pandemic. That is how powerful our economic engine is, when allowed to roar. Recently, unemployment applications fell below 1 million for the first time since March. Initial jobless claims also dropped in
August, and continuing claims are the lowest since early April. If these trends continue, we could see singledigit unemployment in the third quarter. I am not an economist, and everything I read suggests it could be two years before the labor market completely recovers. We do have the potential for a strong 2021, though, as the conditions that made the economy strong have not changed fundamentally. Business owners have not experienced an increase in regulations or taxes, and this shutdown was governmentmandated, not because the real estate market or stock market crashed. Speaking of the stock market, the S&P 500 has increased 50% since March, and is flirting with all-time highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq already is at an all-time high, enjoying 24% gains in 2020.
Ryan Blythe is the founder of Georgia Trade School, which, for the fifth consecutive year, was named one of the Cobb Chamber Top 25 Small Businesses of the Year.
