Future and Trend Studies

TREND FORECASTE

STRATEGY FOR “PASSANGER CARRIER”- APE PIAGGIO MANOJ KOTHARI

MEGA A Megatrend TREND

is a large, social, economic, political, environmental and technological .Once in place, megatrends influence a wide range of activities, processes and perceptions,in society, possibly for decades. They are the underlying forces that drive trends.

These trends give people an insight of what lies ahead in the future.

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

WHAT IS

TREND ?

Direction Shift

Drift

Trends give people an insight of what lies ahead in the future.

A general direction in which something is developing or changing.

Connection

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

CATEGORIES OF MEGATRENDS : POLICY • RBI CREDIT • FOREIN DIRECT INVESTMENT • NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY BILL • VISA ON ARRIVAL • NOTA • CRIMINAL FREE POLITICS • AAM AADMI POLICY • AADHAR CARD • NATIONAL POLICY FOR CHILDREN

MOVI ES • • • • • • • • • •

OH MY GOD DABAANG VICKY DONAR FERRAI KI SWAARI LIFE OF PI PAAN SINGH THOMAR BHAAG MILKHA BHAAG GANG OF WASSEYPUR CHHOTA BHEEM BARFI

BRAND • • • • • •

SAMSUNG GALAXY FLIPKART GOOGLE VESPA REEBOK CROSSFIT MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA • SATYAMEV JAYETE • MICROMAX

NATIONAL EVENT • • • • • •

SACHIN RETIREMENT FDI ENTRY MARS MISSION IPL SPOT FIXING KASAB HANGED DELHI GANG RAPE

PRODUCT • • • • • • • • • •

SPACE METAL 3D PRINTER IOS -7 LEAP MOTION EYE -TRIBE SUPERCOMPUTER PHILIPS ELITE BAXTER -BLUE COLLAR ROBOT VODAFONE TANISHQ IDEA

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

CATEGORIES OF MEGATRENDS : START UP • • • • • •

NANOBI ANALYSTICS FLYXT SAPIENCE ANALYTICS KEYPOINT TECHNOLOGIES WAYBO TECHNOLOGIES VOICE OF BIG DATA

EXPERIENCE • • • • • • •

TEC- CHANGE

ECO TOURISM • PAPER THINSCREEN WEEKEND FESTI• GOOGLE DRIVERVALS LESS CAR UNCONVENTIONAL • DINING ADVENTURES TRIP REJUVENATING THERAPIES DESTINATION WEDDING AUGMENTD REALITY

AD CAMPAIGN • • •

COCA COLA FLIPKART INDIAN PREMIER LEAGUE • IDEA • TANSHIQ • VODAFONE

MEDIA SOCIAL • • • • • • • •

WHATS UP FACEBOOK GOOGLE + MAKE MY TRIP TWITTER LINKED IN BOOK MY SHOW ZOMATO

•

INSTAGRAM

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

EMERGING TREND

SUPRISE | SURREAL • Destination wedding (making it everlasting “Timeless” • Unconventional dining ( Twist in the • • • •

table )

Google driverless car( Safety and con-

venience)

Adventure trip ( Breaking through from

monotony )

Augmented reality ( mixing the world ) Personal 3d printer ( real life product )

BACK TO ROOT • Eco tourism ( Back To Root) • LIFE OF PI ( Hope ,Optimism, Postivst) • Paan singh tomer ( Real life story ) • Bhaag milkha bhaag ( real life heroes, • • •

hard work)

Gangs of wasseypur ( Rowdy, village ) Sensory explosion ( overall experience ) Chhota bheem (urban- rural) connec-

tion)

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

EMERGING TREND

GEN -W

ACCOUNTABILITY | TRANSPARENCY

• AAdhar card (unique identy card) • Aam aadmi party(patriotism,trigger action)

• Satyamev jayate ( ground reality check) • NOTA ( none of the above ) • criminal free politics (cannot contest in election)

• True caller (social media intersection) • Obama care ( nation perception abt the

• Kalki koechin ( change in mindset ) • Dove ( real woman, real beauty ) • Fast track court ( crime against wowmen)

• Idea ( women safety) • Tanishq ( changing time , modern time ) • Delhi ganga rape ( awakening , need for revolution)

• Havells fan ( changing time )

govt

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

EMERGING TREND

BRAND POWER • •

NARENDRA MODI (Dynamism,

growth)

NAMO( Hope )

ON THE GO ACCESS

• Personal cloud (Personal data space) • •

Connected life ( Seamless flow between online and offline) Unhiphore ( cloud based voice application) Exotel ( cloud telephony service)

• • Food take away

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

EMERGING TREND

PERSONALIZATION • Predictive personalization( data generation and data analysis

• Vodafone ( Alag log, Alag zarooratein)

• DNA squencing ( before birth syn•

drome test )

•

PLAY weekend festival (taking time out

for passion)

• Blesure trip( business + lesuire ) • Play enagement (play as acompetitive advantage )

• Apps ( educate the user ) • Project fiona ( first ever gaming tablet)

• Educ.channel ( eg. tata sky) • Rebook crossfit (going back to root)

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

SURREAL- SURPRISE • Experience the unimaginable • spellbound, fantasy, ecstasy

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

UNDERSTANDING BRAND

CONSUMER

BUSINESS

TECHNO

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

BRAND

The Piaggio Ape, is a three-wheeled light commercial vehicle first produced in 1948 by Piaggio. At the end of World War II, most Italians, badly affected by the war, lacked means of transport, and more importantly, the financial means to acquire and maintain full-sized four-wheeled vehicle So, the objective was to create a simple, robust and affordable vehicle. The vehicle had to be easy to drive for both men and women and be able to carry a passenger • It is highly versatile in nature in respect to the small and narrow size making it to be adaptable to the narrow roads often found in Indian cities and also easy to transport through rough unconventional terrain • It is cheap to buy with low maintenance costs. Importantly, it was also easy to drive and maneuver in the most intense urban traffic. Its low running costs makes it an economic vehicle

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

CUREENT SCENARIO

• Earlier this year, Piaggio launched Ape city which is intended on targeting the passenger auto rickshaw market that was reined by Bajaj earlier • A market that no one has competed in before; it is a three-wheeler passenger vehicle powered by alternate fuel which was created due to increasing customer need.

• The new Ape City range comes powered by fuels like LPG and CNG, along with other petrol variants.The engine has been developed specifically for India which Piaggio offer to deliver good mileage with low emissions.

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

COMPETITOR The most prominent advantage of the bajaj auto Mega Max is the seat to cabin roof distance (1000mm) there by providing more head room, this feature caters to the over packing behavior found in cities where transit customers wish to be charged less by sharing with other commuters.

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

COSUMER

Demography : profile Name : Mahesh bhai Age : 45 yr Occupation: Auto driver Education: 10th pass Place : Rented house Ahmedabad Family: 3 children(1 working and 2 in school), wife Earning : Rs. 250- 400 on an average

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

AUTO -DRIVER

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

INSIGHT • Was here to repair his auto and was happy that bajaj service centres can be found everywhere.

• Bajaj allows selling 3rd party vendors to sell spares, so easy and cheap availability. He says “ekdum maruti jaisa hai” • Owns a second hand auto-rickshaw which he bought for 30,000.

• T.V.S is a good option but the service and spares are only available in the franchisee service centres. Piaggio “toh Hazaar mein 1 dikhta hai” • Only carries 3-4 passengers in his auto but believes it can carry more too.

• Leaves home 7 in the morning and usually return around 9-9.30. Watches TV, sit with friends and sleep by 12.

• Wants to earn money to marry off his daughter and then plans to go back to village.

• Does not wants to buy a new auto in near future.

• WANTS HIS CHILDREN TO JOIN A GOVERNMENT SERVICE AS HE THINKS “Auto mein bohot bhaga daudi hai”.

• He talked about how he once came back from ahmedabad to gandhinagar to return a customers phone and only charged the fare.

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

COSUMER-2

Name : Rashid Age : 35 yr Education: 12th pass Place : Gandhinagar Occupation: auto garge owners Family: 2 children ,wife and parents Education : Govt school Earning : Appox 10-15 k and seasonal Owns maruti Omni , Bajaj auto and scooter

Auto Garge Owners

INSIGHT • Uses auto as a material carrier from godown/house to garage and vice versa. Uses Omni as a family car and scooter for daily commute.

• Owns a medium priced Samsung touch screen phone.

• According to Rashid, Piaggio is a nice product with zero maintenance. The wheel base and shock ups are best in the class but it is more suitable as goods carrier. This is proved by the fact that Piaggio is widely used in industrial areas of himmatnagar and rajkot.

• For rashid, TVS is also a nice product “TVS bhi badiya aur majboot gaadi hai, Bajaj toh isiliye chalta hai kyuki uski service aur parts badiya aur asaani se milta hai”.

• A.C or Fan is required in autos and spares should be available easily.

• Distinct Info:

- Piaggio is a nice product but engine at the back is not acceptable to many drivers in and around gandhinagar.

- Piaggio lost in the market because it could not meet the demand with adequate supply and also lost due to the lack of CNG option.

- autos needs service every month and piaggio services were expensive.

BUSINESS

Piaggio Group operates globally in two markets in the light mobility vehicle industry: • Two-wheeled vehicles (consisting of

scooters and motorcycles) • commercial vehicles (both three- and four-wheeled light commercial vehicles).

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

CONTEXT City three - wheeler market • The city three - wheeler market, whose fortunes are dictated by the state governments based on the number of permit issued is around 150 ,ooo a year.

• The city three -wheeler segment has grown by nine percentage to 370,868 unit during the period april- jan2012 in comparison with 340,032 vechicles sold in the year ago period • The italian auto major is aiming at grabbing 15-20 percent market share in this segment by the end of this calendar year.

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

SERVICE

• 75 MINUTE EXPRESS SERVICE

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

3W-FUTURE PLANS Maheshwari(Bajaj) sais the RE60

will not cut into the company three

wheelersales.According to him,with metro train systems being built in several cities, passengers will still need transport between home and the station,giving ample room for both( three -wheelers and quadricycles) to co -exist.

This will also be helped by the low penetaration of three wheelers,which account for 3% of motorised transport space,he said

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

TECHNOLOGY

New Regulations •Inclusion of Quadricycle in the CMVR Safety features over and above 3 wheeler auto rickshaws •Safety norms – no overloading •Fitness certificate from RTO Taxi - 20 years, Auto – 16 years •Future trends should be aligned with international regulations Standards should be bought for drivers and passengers seat

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

Technology - Now and Next

• DTSi – Digital Twin Spark Technology is a Bajaj Auto trademark • This technology was introduced recently in three wheeler segment • Bajaj introduced an advanced DTSi technology to compete with TVS • Piaggio introduced 395CC LPG/CNG to compete against Bajaj 200CC segment

New Business Model

• Foreigners get behind the wheel. Purchase autos for personal usage during their stay. Competitions and rallies made around this. Sold off upon departure • Autos to sell Uninor recharge coupons • Register to track auto drivers at night • Meters that print fare • Indiegogo project to fund converting 400 autos in Ahmednagar to electric.

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

STRATEGY- APE PIAGGIO Short term PRODUCT

For more luggage space - good carrier Heat resistant seat material For comfortable - suspension - system Foldable furnoture +stall

BRAND

Auto as abranding and retail space

Medium term Inclusion of aspiration of a car -convertible - Better control - Twin seat

Auto sports events -magic/suprise -play

Buy music on the go

Gamification of waiting time B2b selling toriusm + industrial BUSINESS

On call auto services - personalisation - accountability - Acess on the go

service payback -Inclusion of local mechanics Not just driver complete family inclusion

TREND FORECAST | 2012- SDM

Thank you