Banyule City Council 30 November 2015 Item 4.3 Attachment 3

Greensborough Structure Plan Review Economic Base Report

Prepared for Banyule City Council

21 January 2015

This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the party to whom it is addressed and for no other purpose.

No responsibility is accepted for any third party who may use or rely on the whole or any part of the content of this report. It should be noted that any subsequent amendments or changes in any form to this report would only be notified to and known by the parties to whom it is addressed. This report has been carefully prepared by Charter Keck Cramer Strategic Research and the information contained herein should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters. Š 2015 (Charter Keck Cramer)

Charter Contact Report Author Job FON Client Contact

Blair Warman Blair Warman Anne North

CONTENTS.

1.

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1

2.

Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3 2.1

3.

Information and Data Review. ......................................................................................... 4 3.1 3.2

4.

Green Book: Greensborough Principal Activity Centre Plan (2006). ..................................... 4 Activity Centre’s Review: Economic Information Base Project (2009) - SGS Planning and Economics. ............................................................................................................................ 7

Situation Analysis............................................................................................................ 9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

5.

Study Area ............................................................................................................................. 3

Location ................................................................................................................................. 9 Centre Layout and Function .................................................................................................. 9 Land Ownership ................................................................................................................... 10 Retail Trade Area ................................................................................................................. 11 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 13

Demographic Analysis .................................................................................................. 14 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4

Resident Population ............................................................................................................. 14 Age Profile ........................................................................................................................... 15 Housing ................................................................................................................................ 17 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 19

6.

Working Population ....................................................................................................... 20

7.

Retailing ........................................................................................................................ 23 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4

8.

Housing ........................................................................................................................ 30 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4

9.

Metropolitan Context ............................................................................................................ 31 Spatial Distribution ............................................................................................................... 33 Local Housing Market Fundamentals .................................................................................. 36 Greensborough Activity Centre ............................................................................................ 38

Commercial Offices....................................................................................................... 40 9.1 9.2

9.3 9.4

10.

Activity Centre Hierarchy ..................................................................................................... 23 Greensborough Activity Centre Performance Benchmarking .............................................. 25 7.2.1 Greensborough Plaza ............................................................................................. 25 Greensborough Activity Centre ............................................................................................ 26 Opportunities ........................................................................................................................ 29

Key Drivers .......................................................................................................................... 41 Metropolitan Context ............................................................................................................ 43 9.2.1 Distribution of Office Employment .......................................................................... 44 9.2.2 Benchmarking Office Employment ......................................................................... 46 9.2.3 Regional Office Employment Analysis .................................................................... 47 Greensborough Activity Centre ............................................................................................ 48 Development Opportunities ................................................................................................. 49

Health and Wellbeing .................................................................................................... 50 10.1 Key Demand Drivers ............................................................................................................ 50

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

10.2 Opportunities ........................................................................................................................ 53 10.3 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 54

11.

Food and Lifestyle ......................................................................................................... 55 11.1 Case Studies ........................................................................................................................ 55 11.1.3 Case Study: James Street Market Brisbane ........................................................... 56

12.

Appendix A: Competing Centre Trade Areas ................................................................. 59

F:\ONEDRIVE\XXXXX GREENSBOROUGH SP\REPORT\REPORT .DOC

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

1.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY David Lock Associates and Charter Keck Cramer were appointed by Council in December 2014 to review the Greensborough Structure Plan including the preparation of an Economic Base Report.

The Greensborough activity centre’s role as a regional centre reflects a number of key attractions including Greensborough Plaza, a health precinct and a recently completed Watermarc aquatic centre. The establishment of Greensborough as a regional level centre reflects strong residential growth across the surrounding region during the 1970s and into the 1980s. More recently however there has been a slowing in population growth combined with an ageing population and increased competition from competing regional centres. This places increased pressure upon the centre to establish new regional attractions to support its economic performance and vitality.

Greensborough Plaza is the primary retail destination within the centre for not only discretionary retailing but also weekly shopping, resulting in the traditional retail strip along Main Street and Grimshaw Street largely catering for business services, secondary retailers and restaurants.

Nevertheless the Greensborough Plaza offers considerable exposure to potential customers through attracting an estimated 10 million visitors to the centre each year. Similarly, the full line Woolworths supermarket on the western periphery of the centre also represents a key attraction.

Recent Council initiatives including the construction of Watermarc and the Greensborough Walk would be expected to provide potentially new opportunities for lifestyle related activities within the Main Street precinct. This however requires a greater recognition of Main Street as a regional lifestyle destination similar to that which has been established in other outer suburban centres including the Knox shopping centre (Ozone precinct), Glen Waverley activity centre (Kings Way precinct) and Mornington (Main Street precinct). The proposed activation of the cinemas frontage to Main Street may provide a key opportunity for this to begin to occur.

This assessment identifies limited opportunities for an expansion in traditional retail floorspace given the projected slow population growth which combined with an ageing trade area population will impact upon available household expenditure. Similarly, increasing competition from other regional centres such as Northland, Westfield Doncaster and Westfield Plenty Valley will also impact upon the centre’s performance.

Greensborough Plaza is currently trading at industry benchmark levels and therefore would not be expected to support any expansion without impacting upon the viability of existing retailers.

Similarly within the Main Street and Grimshaw Street precincts there are a number of vacancies and premises currently available for lease. Such conditions however are not unique to Greensborough and generally reflects trading conditions across the non-food retail sector.

Benchmarking employment activity within Greensborough with that of other comparable activity centres indicates that it is performing at a level consistent with its regional role and attributes with respect to specialty retailing, personal services and business services. Although hospitality related employment is also comparable, the opportunity for Greensborough to leverage off its natural attributes and the regional attraction of Watermarc suggests it may be able to support a higher level of employment within this sector.

Medium density housing opportunities within the Greensborough activity centre would be expected to continue to be in the form of townhouses rather than apartments. This reflects a range of factors including underlying property market conditions combined with more central locations being more attractive to potential apartment residents being typically younger renters rather than older occupiers. Nevertheless there may still be the opportunity for niche apartment developments that leverage off Greensborough’s key attributes including access to regional shopping facilities, public transport, open space and potentially new lifestyle opportunities within the centre.

Greensborough’s existing health precinct offers a significant opportunity to be expanded given the organic growth in this sector combined with growing demand from an ageing population within the surrounding area. This may generate demand for both specialist facilities as well as

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

generic office space. There may be the potential for a day hospital within the precinct given the availability of larger sites and the continued growth in the number of such facilities.

Office related activities within the Greensborough are spread across a small office precinct in Flintoff Street as well as within a range of more affordable accommodation such as above retail premises. While there is not expected to be a significant increase in office related employment within the centre there may be the opportunity for new office space to be occupied by businesses upgrading into purpose built facilities. Similarly growth in demand from health providers for office space may provide the necessary total demand to support a limited number of small office suite projects.

Council’s proposed new municipal offices above Watermarc will significantly increase the number of workers within the centre which will increase demand for lunch time food services as well as the level of pedestrian activity within the centre.

Greensborough’s future role as a regional destination will need to expand beyond that of traditional activities associated with the Greensborough Plaza and instead develop new attractions that enable it to compete more effectively with competing regional centres. The centre’s natural attributes combined with new regional attractions such as Watermarc provide a potentially effective means of establishing a key point of difference to these other centres. Central to this will be the creation of lifestyle related activities that leverage off the aquatic centre, proposed activation of the cinema frontage and the exposure to 10,000,000 visitors per year to Greensborough Plaza.

While the structure plan represents a key means through which the vision for the centre may be conveyed to potential investors and businesses, economic development initiatives will also play a key role in establishing an awareness of Greensborough as a non-retail destination.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

2.

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INTRODUCTION In December 2014 David Lock Associates and Charter Keck Cramer were appointed by the City of Banyule to undertake the Greensborough Structure Plan Review. A key task nominated by Council was to prepare an updated economic base report for the Greensborough activity centre which is the focus of this report.

The structure of this report reflects a number of key issues identified by Council including investigating the opportunity for: 

Commercial and residential growth in Greensborough to meet the vision of the Greensborough Structure Plan.



Increased commercial floorspace on properties close to Grimshaw Street.



Mixed use and medical related activities within the existing health precinct and surrounds.

These issues are addressed within the context of the future economic, demographic and property market environment faced by the Greensborough activity centre, the implications for future development opportunities and the role that the structure plan may play in supporting the future role, function and performance of the centre.

2.1

Study Area The Study Area for the purpose of the structure plan review has been defined by Council to be that area currently zoned ‘Activity Centre Zone (ACZ)’ as shown in the figure below. This area incorporates: 

The central commercial area bounded by Grimshaw Street, The Circuit and Para Road.



A secondary retail precinct south of Grimshaw Street comprising a Woolworths supermarket, the Henry Street Car Park and a number of retail tenancies.



An established health precinct and surrounding residential area further to the east along Grimshaw Street.



A secondary commercial precinct north of The Circuit/Para Road which includes the Greensborough RSL, peripheral retailing and a small number of office uses.

Figure 1: Study Area

Source: Banyule City Council, Nearmap

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

INFORMATION AND DATA REVIEW. The two key documents of relevance to the structure plan review are the previous structure plan prepared in 2006 together with the Economic Information Base Project report undertaken in 2009. This section provides a review of both documents.

3.1

Green Book: Greensborough Principal Activity Centre Plan (2006).

The Greensborough Principal Activity Centre Plan (The Plan) was prepared almost a decade ago hence the purpose of the current review. It does however still provide valuable insight into the vision for the activity centre, much of which has or is in the process of being implemented with the completion of the Watermarc Aquatic Centre and the Greensborough Walk development which is currently under construction.

While the Plan focuses primarily upon urban design and transport issues, economic factors were addressed separately as part of the Economic Information Base Project undertaken in 2009 which is also reviewed below. Importantly the Plan focused upon establishing a basis for the growth, renewal and sustainability of the Greensborough town centre and the recognition that this will require significant intervention by Council to achieve the economic aspects of this objective.

The Plan correctly highlights the Greensborough activity centre’s unique topography which offers views across the Plenty Valley. As has been the case for locations such as Doncaster Hill this potentially creates the opportunity for higher density housing as well as to differentiate Greensborough from competing centres with respect to recreational and lifestyle opportunities.

In addition to these natural attributes the Vision for the Greensborough activity centre also recognises the focus upon health and well-being activities which has been strengthened with the completion of the Aquatic Centre. The Vision also highlights a desire for a greater diversity of residential development including higher density mixed-use developments within the centre.

Figure 2: Greensborough Activity Centre Precincts

Source: Greensborough Principal Activity Centre Plan

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

The Plan provides guidelines for each of the precincts (refer figure above) within the Greensborough activity centre including a vision and objectives for each. The current review of the Plan will need to assess the continued relevance of these guidelines from an economic perspective which is the purpose of this report. It is therefore appropriate at this stage to identify key elements of the vision and objectives for each precinct and key issues that will be addressed in this report.

It should be acknowledged however that the Plan was prepared in 2006 during the lead up to the Global Financial Crisis which has since proven to be a period of unsustainable economic growth.

As a result many development proposals are now considered unfeasible due to subdued market conditions and more conservative lending policies being adopted by financiers.

The key elements of the guidelines for each precinct are outlined below together with key issues that have been addressed as part of this report. a)

Main Street Precinct

Vision: 

Will be a vibrant place with a range of activities attracting people over longer periods during the day and evening.



Create a pleasant, attractive pedestrian environment where active uses, such as cafes, shops and retail will be encouraged to “spill out” onto the street.

Objectives:  Ensure that Main Street retains the character and characteristics of a main street retail strip. 

Encourage the types of uses that will establish Main Street as an alternative kind of experience to the Greensborough Plaza shopping mall and East Main Street precinct, such as boutique and specialty retail and cafe/restaurants.



Allow for new forms of housing (i.e. shop top housing and residential apartments).



Facilitate commercial investment in the precinct through the development of new shop fronts and tenancies on Grimshaw Street.

b) West Main Street Precinct (Greensborough Plaza) Vision:  Provide key retail services including anchor retail stores, entertainment and commercial services. 

New development in the northern quadrant will maximise views and access to the Plenty River Valley where appropriate

Objectives: 

Integrate Greensborough Plaza, Main Street and East Main Street activities.



Encourage new mixed-use development within the northern quadrants.



Encourage any new higher buildings to be designed to maximise views from and between these higher buildings to the Plenty River Valley

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

c)

East Main Street Precinct

Vision: 

Accommodate anchor retail functions and contain a significant residential component.

Objectives: 

d)

Support a mixture of uses with active frontages such as restaurants/cafes, retail, civic and community facilities at pedestrian levels, and uses of non-active frontages such as residential and office uses located at upper levels.

Henry Street Precinct

Vision: 

Redevelopment of the car park will provide a well-designed mixed-use development.



Supermarket will continue to complement the range of convenience retail services in the centre.

Objectives: 

e)

Facilitate the redevelopment of the Council-owned Henry Street car park site as medium density mixed use development including residential development.

Southern Precinct

Vision: 

Residential properties along Grimshaw Street will be encouraged to be consolidated and redeveloped as medium density mixed use developments with a medical centre focus.

Objectives: 

Encourage medium density housing forms.



Encourage medium density mixed-use development with a medical centre focus along Grimshaw Street.

f)

Diamond Creek Road Precinct

Vision: 

Mix of peripheral retail and commercial activity along Diamond Creek Road will be maintained

Objectives:  g)

Encourage a range of commercial and mixed uses.

Railway Precinct

Vision: 

Opportunities for limited commercial uses associated with the interchange will be explored to widen the range of goods and services available at this convenient location.



Underutilised surplus railway land will be redeveloped for higher density housing

Objectives: 

Investigate opportunities for higher density residential development on surplus land.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

h)

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Flintoff Street Precinct

Vision: 

Focus of high density, office development with some opportunities for incorporating residential uses.

Objectives: 

Encourage development of high density commercial and residential buildings.

3.1.1 Key Issues The vision and objectives for each of the three ‘Main Street’ precincts highlight the need for each to have a well-defined role that complements rather than competes with each other. This includes the key points of difference between the ‘internal shopping mall’ configuration of Greensborough Plaza compared to the two other open-air precincts and the relative focus of each upon traditional retailing versus lifestyle related activities such as cafes and restaurants.

Given the size of the Henry Street car park and the Flintoff Street precinct, consideration will need to be given to the underlying depth of demand for mixed-use developments and the implications for any staging of development as well as the scale of each stage. This requires an understanding of Greensborough’s position within the medium density housing and commercial office markets.

The existing health precinct represents a key opportunity to leverage new development which although difficult to quantify needs to be explored and given direction within the structure plan in order to promote development and business investment.

3.2

Activity Centre’s Review: Economic Information Base Project (2009) - SGS Planning and Economics.

This study was undertaken to provide a collection of economic information and data to support activity centre planning for a number of centres including the Greensborough activity centre. This included identifying potential shortages of floorspace within individual centres.

A high-level strategic assessment of the Greensborough activity centre identified a range of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats including many that also apply to most other centres. Those strengths and weaknesses which are particularly unique to the Greensborough activity centre however include: 

Several underdeveloped, large strategic sites (including car parks).



Poor connectivity between Greensborough railway station and Greensborough Plaza.



Undulating topography and natural environment making it an attractive residential area.

Key opportunities identified by the study included: 

Greensborough Project (aquatic centre, Council offices and community facilities, town square and Greensborough Walk).



Improved cinema/lifestyle mix to attract visitors.



Increased commercial activity and working population within the centre.



Redevelopment of underutilised sites for residential and commercial development.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

The key threats to the centre generally related to the need to maintain active uses within the centre’s retail strips rather than business and personal services (e.g. banks and hairdressers) and cafes and restaurants that may only be open in the evening.

The opportunity for new development within the centre was identified based upon the availability of potential sites and likely future demand for residential, retail, office and health care floorspace.

Demand for these land uses was determined based upon Greensborough’s existing share of total floor space within Banyule and assumed growth in this share over the period to 2031. These projections of future development potential were undertaken following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis and secondly represent a top-down approach given the purpose of this study.

The study identified the future additional development potential over the period to 2031 for 

1,100 residential dwellings.



44,100 m² of retail space.



12,200 m² of office space.



2,400 m² of private health care floorspace.

Although Greensborough’s share of net additional development across Banyule is not provided in the report it may be easily calculated as has been done in the table below. It indicates that achieving the projected 2031 development levels will require Greensborough to attract 12% of all net additional housing across the municipality. Similarly 37% of additional retail floorspace and 33% of additional office space will need to be developed within the Greensborough activity centre.

Table 1: Economic Information Base Project (2009) Projected Development Activity Existing Stock

Existing Share of Banyule

Additional Development Potential to 2031

Possible 2031 Development Levels

2031 Share of Banyule

Share of Growth

1,100

1,417

2.6%

12%

9,214

54,500

44,100

96,401

24.3%

37%

119,987

396,712

12,200

23,000

18.8%

33%

37,301

122,340

2,400

2,653

4.2%

9%

27,024

63,167

1,700

5,394

26.7%

20%

8,512

20,202

Residential (no.)

Greensborough Banyule

317

0.7%

45,286

Retail (sqm) Greensborough Banyule

52,301

18.9%

276,725

Office (sqm) Greensborough

10,800

Banyule

85,039

12.7%

Private Health (sqm) Greensborough Banyule

253

0.7%

36,143

Entertainment (sqm) Greensborough Banyule

3,694 11,690

31.6%

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

4.

4.1

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SITUATION ANALYSIS Location The Greensborough activity centre is located on Melbourne’s urban fringe which may have both a positive and negative impact upon its potential future role and performance. The lower density, semi-rural areas to the north-east of Greensborough will limit the amount of available household expenditure to support retail activities.

At the same time however, attractions including the Plenty River and parklands immediately to the north and the new Watermarc aquatic centre are important regional attractions for visitors to the centre. This may provide opportunities to differentiate Greensborough from other competing centres and support a wider range of activities.

4.2

Centre Layout and Function The physical layout of the Greensborough activity centre will influence the connectivity between land uses and activities, development opportunities and the centre’s overall role and function as a regional destination.

As shown in the figure below the Greensborough Plaza accounts for a significant portion of the centre as does the aquatic centre and adjacent Council owned land extending along Flintoff Street to Para Road. Greensborough Walk provides an important linkage between Greensborough Plaza, the aquatic centre and the Grimshaw Street health precinct.

Figure 3: Greensborough Activity Centre

Source: Nearmap

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

The Main Street retail precinct not only provides a key link from Para Road to Grimshaw Street but also provides a main street experience through accommodating a range of businesses including the major banks and other business services, discount chemist, take away food outlets and a relatively significant number of restaurants. Wide footpaths along Main Street also offer the opportunity for outdoor eateries.

Traditional weekly food retailing is almost entirely located within Greensborough Plaza with two supermarkets (Coles and Aldi) and a range of fresh food retailers including bakeries, deli, butcher, greengrocer, seafood and poultry retailers.

The Woolworths supermarket is separated from the rest of the centre by major roads. In addition the KFC store to the east creates an additional barrier between the supermarket and a number of retail premises extending along the southern side of Grimshaw Street to Main Street. These properties are predominantly occupied by restaurants and other destination-style businesses with a lack of on-street parking likely to discourage more traditional retail activities.

Similarly the northern side of Grimshaw Street is also isolated from the centre’s commercial core by the All Saints Anglican Church as well as the cinemas which do not have an active frontage to Main Street. This precinct has however successfully established a role as a location for personal and business services which has the benefit of removing these ‘non-active frontages’ from within Main Street where they may otherwise locate.

A prominent health services precinct has evolved around the Greensborough Community Health Service facility (former Diamond Valley Hospital site) on Grimshaw Street opposite Watermarc and includes the Diamond Valley Specialist Centre and Diaverum Diamond Valley Dialysis Clinic together with a number of specialist health service providers including pathology, medical imaging and physiotherapy.

Flintoff Street performs a role as a small office precinct with a number of office developments including Council owned office currently for lease and a more contemporary office building at 810 Flintoff Street occupied by a solicitors, accountants and IT consultants. This precinct is complemented by the recently developed Centrelink / Medicare building in Grimshaw Street.

4.3

Land Ownership Outside of Greensborough Plaza which occupies 6.6 ha, Council is a major land holder within the Greensborough activity centre. Council owned sites include a 2.6 ha parcel of land bounded by Grimshaw Street, Flintoff Street, Para Road and the rear of properties fronting Main Street which has already been partially redeveloped for the aquatic centre. In addition the Henry Street car park (1 ha) is strategically located to potentially revitalise the south-western precinct which, as already discussed, is somewhat isolated from the centre’s commercial core.

Other significant privately owned sites within the centre include the Woolworths supermarket site (8,265 m²), the All Saints Anglican Church site (3,050 m²) and the Savers site (6,550 m²) on the corner of Main Street and Para Road.

Within the Grimshaw Street health precinct there are a number of larger sites including the Greensborough Community Health Service site (1.3 ha) and adjacent sites to the east occupied by the Diamond Valley Specialist Centre / Dorevitch Pathology (4,175 m²), and to the east the Living Faith Church site (5,600 m²).

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

4.4

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Retail Trade Area The retail trade area of the Greensborough Activity Centre provides an indication of the competitiveness of the centre as well as the residential areas that it relies upon to support local businesses and other activities. It also provides an indication of the extent to which residents may consider the Greensborough activity centre to be the centre to which they feel most connected.

The trade area for individual businesses and activities will however vary depending upon the extent to which households are able to obtain a similar level of service elsewhere. For example, regional shopping centres such as Greensborough Plaza will have a much larger trade area than a stand-alone supermarket. Similarly non-retail activities including recreational, health and business services may attract visitors to the centre from a quite different area depending upon the uniqueness of the services they offer.

Given the primary role of the Greensborough activity centre as a retail destination it is the trade area of the Greensborough Plaza that is of most relevance. Although a trade area map for Greensborough Plaza is not publicly available it is possible to gain an indication of the area from that of competing centres being Westfield Doncaster, Westfield Plenty Valley and Northland shopping centres.

The trade area maps for these three centres which are provided in Appendix A highlight the extent of competition faced by Greensborough from these centres with: 

Westfield Doncaster’s secondary trade area extending northwards as far as Diamond Creek.



Northland shopping centre’s secondary trade area extending as far as MacLeod in a north-easterly direction.



Westfield Plenty Valley’s secondary trade area extending as far south as the Metropolitan Ring Road.

While the Greensborough activity centre will still attract visitors from the secondary trade areas of these centres there are a number of factors which will make this increasingly difficult. This includes the capacity for the Westfield Doncaster and Northland shopping centres to continue to expand and offer a stronger retail mix supported by a growing and increasingly affluent trade area population.

The trade area for the Greensborough activity centre would therefore be expected to be primarily orientated toward servicing the immediate surrounding area and less densely populated areas to the north-east. It would be expected to be similar to the trade area of Westfield Plenty Valley in this respect given that both centres are each anchored by two discount department stores and have a similar retail floor area.

A Study Area for the Greensborough activity centre has been defined based upon the likely retail trade area of the Greensborough Plaza and statistical local area boundaries (refer figure below).

A combined Primary/Secondary Study Area together with a Tertiary Study Area have been defined to reflect the relative importance of each to supporting economic activity within the Greensborough activity centre. These study areas provide the basis for the analysis undertaken in the following sections of this report.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

Figure 4: Greensborough Study Area

Source: ABS, Google Maps

The Greensborough activity centre’s location on Melbourne’s urban fringe is highlighted by the significantly lower population density of those statistical local areas to the north-east. As shown in the table below the population density of the two Nillumbik SLAs within the primary/secondary study area is only one quarter of the Banyule North SLA. Table 2: Study Area Population Density Statistical Local Area

Population

Area (sq. km)

Population Density (Pop / sq km)

Nillumbik South

26,537

65.8

403

Nillumbik South West

23,935

52.9

452

Banyule North

53,605

29.9

1,792

Banyule Heidelberg

64,597

32.6

1,981

Source: ABS

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

4.5

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Conclusion The Greensborough activity centre’s location on Melbourne’s urban fringe will be a key factor defining its future role and function through providing the opportunity to differentiate itself from other centres based upon its interface with rural areas. Conversely the opportunities to support future growth and development may be constrained by limited opportunities for population growth within the adjacent non-urban area combined with increasing competition from regional shopping centres.

The distribution of activities within the Greensborough activity centre largely reflects its evolution from a rural ‘main street’ township to a regional commercial centre largely driven by the progressive expansion of the Greensborough Plaza over the past 40 years. The Greensborough Plaza has taken over from Main Street as the centre’s retail core with the latter’s role being primarily for those activities less suited to an internal shopping mall for a range of functional and economic reasons.

Main Street has however established a role as a location for business services, second-tier retailers and hospitality related activities. This is typical of the response of many traditional inner and middle suburban shopping strips which when faced with increased competition from larger supermarkets have evolved into cafe and lifestyle precincts.

The Grimshaw Street health precinct together with the new Watermarc aquatic centre reinforces the Greensborough activity centre's role as a regional destination beyond just retailing. This provides the opportunity to better compete with larger regional shopping centres such as Northland and Westfield Doncaster. In particular, the aquatic centre offers the opportunity to establish synergies with other lifestyle related activities such as cafes and restaurants within Main Street and provide a major point of difference to these larger shopping malls.

There are a notable number of larger sites within the Greensborough activity centre that may potentially be developed in the future for a range of land uses. The capacity for such development from an economic and property market perspective has been addressed in the following sections of this report.

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5.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS In order for any demographic analysis to be meaningful it needs to focus upon those indicators that are key determinants of demand for particular land uses or activities. Similarly, the geographic area that the data relates to must also have a strong relationship to the Greensborough activity centre.

A Study Area was defined in the previous section to represent that area from which the centre will attract the majority of visitors. It is also the area where any change in the profile and behaviour of households will have the greatest influence upon the future role, function and performance of the Greensborough activity centre. A Primary/Secondary Study Area has been defined based upon that area that will have the greatest influence together with a tertiary study area reflecting greater competition from other centres or a limited population base.

The study areas are also consistent with the boundaries of a number of statistical local areas (SLAs) which reflects the location of physical barriers being the Yarra and Plenty Rivers with the SLAs within each area shown in the table below.

Table 3: Study Area – Component Statistical Local Areas Primary/Secondary Banyule-North Nillumbik – South West Nillumbik – South

Tertiary Inner Banyule-Heidelberg

Tertiary Outer Nillumbik – Balance

5.1

Resident Population The population of the study area will play an important role in determining the scale of retail and other business activities that may be supported within the Greensborough activity centre. The historic and projected population growth within the study area is shown in the tables below.

The population of the overall study area (primary, secondary and tertiary) is projected to increase by 8,701 residents (0.5% p.a.) over 2011-21 and a further 10,543 residents (0.6% p.a.) over 2021-31. However the majority of this growth will occur within the Tertiary Inner area where there is the greatest competition from other centres including Northland shopping centre. In contrast to this, the population of the Tertiary Outer area is forecast to decline.

Within the Primary/Secondary study area there is projected to be only modest growth at a rate of 0.2% per annum over 2011-21 increasing to 0.4% per annum over 2021-31. By comparison the population of the Tertiary Inner area is expected to grow at a rate of around 1% per annum over the next 20 years. This relatively strong population growth would be expected to support further expansions of Northland shopping centre thereby creating additional competition for the Greensborough activity centre.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

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Table 4: Study Area Historic and Projected Population 2001-2031 Study Area

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

102,195

101,835

104,077

105,027

106,157

108,020

110,237

Tertiary Inner

61,266

61,921

64,597

67,942

71,418

74,701

77,885

Tertiary Outer

8,922

9,033

8,839

8,746

8,639

8,617

8,635

172,383

172,789

177,513

181,716

186,214

191,338

196,757

Primary/ Secondary

Total

Source: ABS, Id Consultants, Charter Keck Cramer

Table 5: Study Area Historic and Projected Annual Population Growth Rate 2001-2031 Study Area

2001-11

2011-21

2021-31

Primary / Secondary

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

Tertiary Inner

0.5%

1.0%

0.9%

Tertiary Outer

-0.1%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.3%

0.5%

0.6%

Total

Source: ABS, Id Consultants, Charter Keck Cramer

5.2

Age Profile The Primary/Secondary study area will continue to be the key determinant of the Greensborough activity centre’s performance given its current role and function. It is therefore important to understand the recent and projected changes in the demographic profile of residents.

The age of residents is a key determinant of a range of other demographic measures including household type and size, income and the type of dwelling occupied. The age profile of residents therefore represents the single most important demographic indicator for determining demand for a range of land uses and activities.

Over the past decade there has been an overall ageing of residents within the Primary/Secondary area as shown in the figure below. A significant increase in the number of residents aged over’s 55 years has been matched by a decline in the population of those age groups representing traditional family households being children aged under 20 years and the likely parents of these children aged between 25 -54 years.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

Figure 5: Primary/Secondary Study Area - Population Change by Age Group 2001-2011

Source: ABS

Id Consultants project that there will be a continuation of this trend over the period 2011-31 as shown in the figure below with further significant increases in the number of residents aged over 65 years.

Figure 6: Primary/Secondary Study Area - Population Change by Age Group 2011-2031

Source: Id Consultants, Charter Keck Cramer

The relatively slow population growth and ageing of residents within the Primary/Secondary area reflects the period of strong residential development through the 1970s and into the 1980s with many original residents now moving into these older age groups. The tendency for the majority of households to remain in their local area after their children have left home is typical of many

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

17

suburban locations. This usually results in areas going through periods of decline and then gentrification as houses become available for a new generation of residents.

Associated with this slowing in population growth and ageing of residents is the reduction in real expenditure by households which impacts upon the performance of local retail centres. As a result there is increased pressure for centres to attract expenditure from beyond their traditional trade area in order to maintain their trading performance and vibrancy.

5.3

Housing Over the period 2001-2011 the total number of occupied dwellings within the Primary/Secondary area increased by 2,685 with the majority of this being in the form of separate houses. Census data suggests that there is only an additional 87 medium density dwellings which is likely to be an understatement due to a lack of consistency in the classification of dwellings by census collectors. Nevertheless the ability to analyse the occupation of dwellings based upon household type is valuable in identifying the extent to which older households remain in traditional family homes.

The following figure indicates that over 2001-11 the number of separate houses occupied by ‘couple families without children’ and ‘one person households’ increased significantly while the number of ‘couple families with children’ declined by a similar amount.

Figure 7: Primary/Secondary Study Area - Change in Occupied Dwelling Type by Household Type 2001-2011

Source: ABS

This tendency for ageing households to remain living in separate houses as well as the relationship between household’s life cycle stage and housing choice is highlighted by the following two figures. The first figure shows that the proportion of each age group population living in separate houses declines noticeably over the 20-29 and 30-39 year age groups although this varies between inner and outer suburban locations even within Banyule.

It highlights the tendency for younger adults to leave home and live in medium density housing in inner metropolitan locations closer to where they work and socialise, before returning to live in separate houses in the suburbs as they start their own families. The pattern for older households is however complicated by the movement into retirement villages which are sometimes classified by the ABS as medium density housing.

Within Greensborough the proportion of residents living in separate houses remains relatively stable (above 90%) reflecting the greater likelihood of younger adults having the flexibility to live

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

in medium density housing elsewhere and the absence of retirement village accommodation for older age groups.

The second figure is based upon ABS statistics derived from unpublished census data at a national level showing the proportion of ‘couple only’ and ’lone person’ households living in ‘flats, units and apartments’ based upon their age group. It highlights the gradual decline in the proportion of each group living in higher density housing as they grow older which suggests a desire for separate housing which is gradually realised over time with improving financial circumstances.

These observations are consistent with recent research undertaken by various organisations into 1 the housing preferences of various household types and age groups.

Figure 8: Proportion of Age Group Population Living in Separate Houses 2011

Source: ABS

1

Recent research includes that undertaken by the Grattan Institute, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), and City Futures Research Centre.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

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Figure 9: ‘Flats, Units and Apartments’ Occupied by Lone Person and Couple Only Households (Australia) 2009-2010

Source: ABS 1301.0 - Year Book Australia, 2012

5.4

Conclusion The projected slow population growth and overall ageing of residents within the Primary/Secondary study area reflects the timing of residential development during the 1970s and 80s and the tendency for residents to age in place.

Associated with these demographic trends will be a likely decline in available household expenditure to support the Greensborough activity centre. Hence there will be a need for the centre to attract visitors from beyond its traditional trade area through differentiating itself from competing centres.

While housing issues will be discussed later in this report, it is important to recognise that a decline in household size associated with an ageing population does not translate into increased demand for smaller dwellings. Given that the 20-29 year and 30-39 year age groups are the key occupants of medium and higher density housing, Greensborough will need to compete with locations that are better able to meet the needs of these age groups in terms of proximity to employment and lifestyle opportunities.

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6.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

WORKING POPULATION Working Population refers to the owners and employees of businesses within a given area as recorded by the ABS as part of the Census of Population and Housing. The smallest area for which data is collected is the Destination Zone of which there are two within the Greensborough activity centre (refer figure below). For the purpose of this study these are referred to as the northern and southern precincts with Grimshaw Street being the division.

Figure 10: The Greensborough Activity Centre Destination Zones

Source: ABS, Google Maps

As at the 2011 Census there was 2,913 workers within the Greensborough activity centre with the majority of employment activity within the northern precinct (refer table below). The retail sector accounted for 1,255 jobs or 38% of total employment across the centre, followed by the Accommodation and Food Services sector (primarily cafes and restaurants) with 403 jobs and the Health Care and Social Assistance sector which employed 270 people.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

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Table 6: Greensborough Activity Centre and Employment by Industry Sector 2011 Northern Precinct

Southern Precinct

Total

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

0

0

0

Mining

0

0

0

30

22

52

0

0

0

Construction

30

37

67

Wholesale Trade

14

0

14

1,101

154

1,255

Accommodation and Food Services

347

56

403

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

10

3

13

Information Media and Telecommunications

51

13

64

119

17

136

94

4

98

100

28

128

Administrative and Support Services

51

17

68

Public Administration and Safety

97

35

132

Education and Training

44

35

79

Health Care and Social Assistance

98

172

270

Arts and Recreation Services

12

11

23

Other Services

90

13

103

Inadequately described

4

4

8

Not stated

0

0

0

Not applicable

0

0

0

2,292

621

2,913

Industry Sector

Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Retail Trade

Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Total Source: ABS

Using data at a more detailed industry level (refer table below) identifies some of the main activities within each sector but also understates the importance of the healthcare sector due to the relatively more detailed categorisation of activities. As shown in the following table, supermarkets and department stores each employed almost 300 workers followed by takeaway food services (226), clothing retailing (116) and cafes and restaurants (105).

Employment data however requires some context in order to identify the role and performance of the Greensborough activity centre both within the activity centre hierarchy as well as relative to similar centres. The following section provides such a context through benchmarking the Greensborough activity centre against similar centres located across Melbourne’s outer suburbs.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

Table 7: Greensborough Activity Centre - Employment by Activity* 2011 Activity

Employment

Supermarket and Grocery Stores

284

Department Stores

275

Takeaway Food Services

226

Clothing Retailing

116

Cafes and Restaurants

105

Banking

92

Pharmaceutical, Cosmetic and Toiletry Goods Retailing

91

Electrical, Electronic and Gas Appliance Retailing

80

Real Estate Services

79

Central Government Administration

67

Hairdressing and Beauty Services

66

Watch and Jewellery Retailing

59

Footwear Retailing

58

Accounting Services

47

Clubs (Hospitality)

45

Aged Care Residential Services

40

Legal Services

39

Technical and Vocational Education and Training

35

Motion Picture Exhibition

33

Local Government Administration

33

Employment Placement and Recruitment Services

31

Source: ABS *Anzsic level 4

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

7.

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RETAILING The retail sector not only accounts for a significant share of employment and land use within the Greensborough activity centre but also provides the necessary amenity and profile within the activity centre hierarchy to support a range of non-retail activities. For example, many business services rely upon exposure to potential customers that may be shopping at the centre as well as in some cases requiring access to cafes and takeaway food outlets for staff. It is therefore important to understand the competitive context within which the Greensborough activity centre operates and the implications for its future performance as a retail centre.

7.1

Activity Centre Hierarchy The following figure and table identify those centres with which the Greensborough activity centre competes at both a regional and local centre level. The centre is located almost equidistant from Northland shopping centre, Westfield Doncaster and Westfield Plenty Valley all of which are within 10-12 km and just over an estimated 15 minutes in travel time.

Over the past decade all these centres have undergone major expansions with Westfield Plenty Valley being expanded in 2008 from a neighbourhood centre to a sub-regional centre with two discount department stores and three supermarkets.

Northland similarly underwent a major expansion in 2009 adding just over 20,000 m² of lettable floor space and including a new fashion precinct, fresh food precinct, Coles supermarket and a new Target discount department store.

Westfield Doncaster also expanded in 2008 resulting in approximately 200 new retailers including David Jones and Big W, a new cinema complex, food court, fresh food precincts and restaurant and entertainment areas.

Greensborough Plaza has not undergone any recent expansions but has undertaken renovations over recent years to expand the Coles supermarket and accommodate a small number of additional retailers. It is understood that there are plans to activate the cinema frontage to Main Street with cafes and restaurants.

Greensborough activity centre also faces competition from a number of local centres anchored by full line supermarkets which allow local residents to undertake weekly food and grocery shopping.

These centres are located within 5-8 km of Greensborough as shown in the figure below.

Table 8: Competing Retail Centres Centre

Travel Distance from Greensborough

Travel Time from Greensbor ough

Role

Retail Anchors

-

-

Regional

Kmart, Target, Woolworths, Aldi

Northland Shopping Centre

10 km

17 minutes

Regional

Myer, Kmart, Target, Coles, Woolworths

Westfield Plenty Valley

11 km

16 minutes

Sub Regional

Kmart, Target, Woolworths, Aldi

Westfield Doncaster

12 km

17 minutes

Regional

Myer, David Jones, Big W, Target, Coles, Woolworths

Stockland The Pines (Doncaster East)

12 km

16 minutes

Sub Regional

Target, Coles, Woolworths, Aldi

Greensborough Activity Centre

Coles,

Coles,

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

Centre

Travel Distance from Greensborough

Travel Time from Greensbor ough

Role

Retail Anchors

8 km

13 minutes

Local

Coles

Eltham Village

5.9 km

11 minutes

Local

Coles, Woolworths, Aldi

St Helena Marketplace

5.3 km

9 minutes

Local

Woolworths

Bundoora Square

4.8 km

9 minutes

Local

Coles

Bundoora (Plenty Road)

5 km

9 minutes

Local

Woolworths

Diamond Creek Shopping Centre

Source: Google Maps, Westfield, Charter Keck Cramer.

Figure 11: Activity Centre Hierarchy

Source: Charter Keck Cramer

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

7.2

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Greensborough Activity Centre Performance Benchmarking Benchmarking the Greensborough activity centre against similar centres provides the opportunity to identify its existing performance as a retail centre as well as the capacity to support additional activities and floorspace. This may be done for both the Greensborough Plaza and for the activity centre as a whole using both industry and ABS data.

7.2.1 Greensborough Plaza The potential for any significant expansion of retail floorspace within the centre may be determined through benchmarking the Greensborough Plaza against comparable regional shopping centres across Melbourne’s outer suburbs.

Given that the population of the identified study area is not projected to increase significantly over the next 20 years, combined with the impact of an ageing population upon household expenditure, any expansion of retail floorspace would require the sales performance of Greensborough Plaza to already be well above that of comparable centres.

As shown in the table below the retail turnover of Greensborough Plaza is currently 333 million which equates to $5,457 per square metre of lettable floor space. This is comparable to all of the benchmarked centres with the exception of the Chirnside Park shopping centre with a turnover $7,880 per square metre. There is a proposal to expand the amount of lettable retail floorspace within Chirnside Park shopping centre by 7,100 m² to 44,000 m² which would reduce the turnover per square metre to approximately $6,000 which will then be similar to that of the other centres.

Similarly, the Cranbourne Park shopping centre is currently being expanded by 12,500 m² (37%) to approximately 45,700 m² and will include a new Target discount department store and an additional 55 specialty stores to a total of 140. The impetus for this expansion however is a projected 61% increase in the population of the centre’s primary trade area resulting in a forecast 2 98% increase in retail expenditure over the period 2013-2021 .

These expansion projects reflect the need for centres to either be ‘over-trading’ so that individual retailers are able to absorb the impact of increased competition from new outlets within the centre, or alternatively there be projected growth in available household expenditure within their trade area.

Greensborough Plaza does not meet either of these criteria and therefore it would be difficult to support any significant expansion of retail floorspace that would directly compete with existing retailers within the centre. Any increase in retail floorspace may impact negatively upon the performance of existing retailers and their longer term viability.

2

Cranbourne Park Leasing Brochure

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

Table 9: Comparative Retail Centre Sales Performance Retail Anchors

Lettable Area (sqm)

Turnover ($m)

Turnover per Sqm

Greensborough Plaza

Kmart, Target, Coles, Aldi

61,000

332.9

$5,457

Westfield Airport West

Target, Kmart, Harris Scarfe

52,190

289.6

$5,549

59,101

329.4

$5,572

Kmart, Harris Scarfe, Woolworths, Coles

33,469

177.5

$5,910

Karingal Hub S.C.

Big W, Woolworths

41,588

220.9

$5,311

Chirnside Park S.C.

Kmart, Target, Woolworths, Coles, Aldi

36,900

263.8

$7,880

Box Hill Central (North and South)

Big W, Harris Scarfe, Woolworths, Coles

37,975

212.1

$5,585

Westfield Plenty Valley

Target, Kmart

53,845

319

$5,924

Centre

The Glen S.C. Cranbourne Park. S.C.

Source: Greensborough Plaza casual leasing brochure, Westfield, Federation Shopping Centres.

7.3

Greensborough Activity Centre While the turnover performance of Greensborough Plaza provides an indication of the capacity to support an expansion of traditional retail activity within that centre, it may not reflect the potential to support other activities across the wider Greensborough activity centre. Given that information on the sales performance of retailers and other businesses may not be available or indeed relevant there is a need for an alternative measure.

Supermarkets represent a generic retail format catering for the staple retail needs of households.

The level of supermarket activity reflecting the basic fundamentals that support an activity centre such as the population of its trade area, accessibility, amenity and convenience. Together these factors determine the extent to which residents of the surrounding area are connected to an activity centre.

Using employment as a measure of activity within the supermarket and other sectors provides a basis for benchmarking the performance of centres across a range of sectors and activities. For example, the ratio of employment in specialty retailing to that within supermarkets would be much higher in regional centres than in neighbourhood centres. Similarly employment in cafes and restaurants would be higher in those centres with recognised hospitality precincts.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT.

27

Table 10: Employment and Ratio to Supermarket Employment Business Services Employment

Ratio to Supermarket Employment

Personal Services Employment

Ratio to Supermarket Employment

Specialty Retailing Employment

Ratio to Supermarket Employment

Cafes, restaurants and Clubs Employment

Ratio to Supermarket Employment

Greensborough

394

1.39

101

0.36

604

2.13

150

0.53

Ivanhoe

303

1.49

59

0.29

147

0.72

71

0.35

Heidelberg

242

0.98

41

0.17

179

0.72

69

0.28

Mornington

559

2.29

145

0.59

493

2.02

283

1.16

Werribee

493

0.92

95

0.18

747

1.39

119

0.22

Sunbury

253

0.65

83

0.21

335

0.86

106

0.27

Knox SC

448

2.33

79

0.41

1,016

5.29

238

1.24

Glen Waverley

490

1.57

126

0.40

602

1.93

354

1.13

Bayswater

199

1.14

22

0.13

94

0.54

45

0.26

Pakenham

336

1.34

48

0.19

147

0.59

60

0.24

Cranbourne

266

1.66

51

0.32

299

1.87

51

0.32

Source: ABS, Charter Keck Cramer

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

The above table shows the ratio of employment in various sectors relative to that within supermarkets across a range of centres both within Banyule and Melbourne’s outer suburban areas which are comparable to Greensborough. Some of the key findings from this analysis may be summarised as follows.  Specialty Retailing The relative amount of specialty retailing (ratio to supermarket employment of 2.13) within the Greensborough activity centre is around three times that of both Ivanhoe and Heidelberg (0.72).

This reflects the centre’s role as a regional shopping location offering a critical mass of national retailers to allow comparison shopping.

Greensborough’s ratio is however slightly above that of both the Mornington (2.02) and Glen Waverley (1.93) activity centres but significantly less than Knox shopping centre (5.29). This indicates that Greensborough is performing at a level that is generally consistent, if not above, its position in the activity centre hierarchy. As a result, there would not be expected to be any significant opportunity to support additional specialty retailing.  Personal Services Greensborough’s ratio of personal services to supermarket employment (0.36) suggests that it is performing at a level comparable to both the Knox shopping centre (0.41) and Glen Waverley activity centre (0.41). It is however well below that of Mornington (0.59) which may be a reflection of that centre’s greater focus upon lifestyle related activities with a significantly higher number of hairdressers (117) compared to Greensborough (66). Therefore there may be the opportunity for Greensborough to support a wider range of personal services through promoting the centre as a lifestyle destination.  Business Services Greensborough’s ratio of 1.39 is comparable to that of Ivanhoe as well as Glen Waverley, Pakenham and Cranbourne which have a strong industrial base to service. Both Knox shopping centre and the Mornington activity centre however have noticeably higher ratios of 2.33 and 2.29 respectively reflecting the presence of all the major banks and significant industrial/commercial activity within their trade area. The Greensborough activity centre would therefore appear to be performing at a level that would be expected.  Cafes, Restaurants and Clubs Greensborough’s ratio of 0.53 is only surpassed by those centres with strong cafe and restaurant precincts being the Knox shopping centre (Ozone precinct), Glen Waverley activity centre (Kings Way precinct) and Mornington activity centre (Main Street precinct). All of these centres are major cafe and restaurant destinations that attract visitors from well beyond the immediate area and as a result have similar ratios of 1.24, 1.13 and 1.16 respectively.

Given the uniqueness of Greensborough’s location with views across a semi-rural interface combined with the recreational opportunities offered by the new aquatics centre and other Council initiatives including the Greensborough Walk there would appear to be the opportunity for increased hospitality activity. While achieving the ratios of Knox shopping centre, Glen Waverley and Mornington activity centres may be ambitious in the short-term they may be achievable over the medium to longer term given the potential for Greensborough to establish itself as a lifestyle destination. There may therefore be the potential for a doubling of hospitality related activities within the centre.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

7.4

Opportunities The analysis undertaken in this section highlighted the limited opportunities for an expansion of traditional retailing, and business / personal services related activities given the projected slow population growth combined with continued competition from regional shopping centres.

Nevertheless the Greensborough activity centre would appear to be performing well in terms of the current level of activity within these sectors.

Greensborough’s unique location combined with recent Council initiatives does however provide the opportunity to be differentiated from competing centres establishing itself as a lifestyle destination that takes advantage of its elevated position and the recreational opportunities offered

by Watermarc.

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8.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

HOUSING Within the Greensborough activity centre new medium density housing development has been primarily in the form of townhouse development over recent years. As at the 2011 Census the composition of occupied housing within the centre (refer table below) was 240 separate houses (70%), 55 semi-detached dwellings (16%) and 50 apartments (14%) with the Gateway Apartments at 265 Para Road completed in 2004 accounting for the majority of these 3 apartments.

Outside the centre however separate houses are the dominant form accounting for 90% of dwellings within the suburb of Greensborough. The housing mix within the centre is similar to the Banyule-Heidelberg SLA with separate houses accounting for 75% of dwellings which would be a reasonable expectation given that the level of access and amenity within the centre may be similar to that offered across Banyule-Heidelberg.

Table 11: Housing Mix Comparison Greensborough Activity Centre

Greensborough (suburb)

BanyuleNorth

BanyuleHeidelberg

No. Dwellings Separate houses

240

6,507

17,796

17,587

Semi-detached dwelling

55

358

2,,886

1,478

Flat, unit or apartment

50

354

3104

790

345

7,219

23,786

19,855

Separate houses

70%

90%

75%

89%

Semi-detached dwelling

16%

5%

12%

7%

Flat, unit or apartment

14%

5%

13%

4%

% of Dwellings

Source: ABS

The Greensborough activity centre offers a number of attractions that may encourage medium density housing including regional shopping facilities, public transport and the potential for views.

Nevertheless the potential for new housing within the centre needs to be considered within the context of the pattern of residential development occurring across the wider metropolitan area.

These patterns of development reflect a range of factors including housing affordability as dictated by local residential property market conditions and in particular underlying land values, housing preferences at various stages within a household’s life-cycle, and differences in tenure across dwelling types.

This section reviews the pattern of residential development that has occurred across metropolitan Melbourne as a basis for understanding future opportunities for a greater diversity of housing within Greensborough.

3

Residential land uses within the Study Area identified by Council are accounted for by two Census “Statistical Area 1” areas being 21197040 and 21197041

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

8.1

Metropolitan Context Melbourne’s housing market comprises a range of dwelling types albeit dominated by traditional suburban standalone houses which accounted for 73% of its total housing stock in 2011. The next most prominent form of housing is medium density housing which includes townhouses and semi-detached dwellings which accounted for around 20% of the city’s dwellings. Higher density apartments accounted for only 6% of the total dwelling stock.

Higher density housing is primarily concentrated in the Melbourne CBD and Inner region (up to 5 km from the Melbourne CBD) with additional development within identified activity centres and suburban employment and education nodes.

Conversely separate houses are distributed widely across metropolitan Melbourne and have accounted for the vast majority of new housing that has been developed in the outer and fringe greenfield suburbs since the 1960s.

Medium density housing is also widely dispersed across Melbourne’s Inner and Middle suburbs as a result of the historic provision of villa units and walk-up apartments. Increasingly, contemporary townhouses are also being delivered widely across Melbourne’s Middle and Outer suburbs at a range of price points to cater for local demand. This new supply is being delivered through the redevelopment of interwar and post-war housing initially built on larger lots and now becoming functionally obsolete.

There are a range of factors that influence the mix of housing types within any one location through their impact upon the depth of housing demand and ultimately underlying land values which determine the commercial viability of developing each housing type given their different land requirements. These factors include proximity to: 

Melbourne CBD which as a key employment location generates demand for rental accommodation particularly amongst younger professional workers.



Tertiary educational institutions and the need to accommodate students.



Public transport and in particular rail services within reasonable commuting distance of the Melbourne CBD and other employment nodes.

Each housing type typically caters for different market segments which is reflected in the age profile of the occupants, and related to this the proportion of dwellings that are rented, as shown in the two figures below for metropolitan Melbourne.

The age distribution of occupants for each dwelling type again reflects a range of factors that vary across each age group such as space requirements (including private open space, storage, car parking), affordability relative to earning capacity, preferred location and relative affordability of alternative dwelling types in a preferred area.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

As the figure below indicates, the age distribution of the occupants of separate houses is much more uniform than for other housing types albeit with a steady decline in the representation of over 60 year olds as they relocate to medium density housing which includes retirement villages.

The 20-29 and 30-39 year old age groups, representing those segments of the population most likely to have left home but yet to establish their own families, account for 53% of apartment residents. The concentration of demand within this relatively narrow cohort and the location and lifestyle preferences of this group have a major influence upon the pattern of apartment development across Melbourne. Hence the potential for the Greensborough activity centre to support a significant level of apartment development will be determined by its ability to meet the needs of these younger age groups which typically favour inner city locations.

Semi-detached dwellings represent a compromise between apartments and separate dwellings offering more space than an apartment and more affordable than a traditional home thereby appealing to a wider range of household types and age groups.

Figure 12: Metropolitan Melbourne – Age Distribution of Dwelling Type Occupants 2011

Source: ABS

The likelihood of dwellings being rented also reflects the age profile of the occupants of each dwelling type with half of all apartments being rented compared to less than 20% of separate houses. As a result the distribution of apartment development largely reflects the needs of younger tenants which have very different location preferences to older owner-occupiers of separate houses.

However the location of apartment projects must also appeal to investors with an increasing number residing outside of Melbourne as a result of apartment projects being marketed through financial intermediaries. Importantly, a location must support the marketing of apartments in terms of appealing to purchasers that may not be familiar with Melbourne.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Figure 13: Metropolitan Melbourne – Rented Dwellings 2011

Source: ABS

8.2

Spatial Distribution The influence of these factors upon the location of new medium density residential development is best summarised by the pattern of apartment and townhouse development that has occurred across metropolitan Melbourne since 2000. Charter Keck Cramer maintains a database of apartment and townhouse projects comprising more than 10 dwellings with a range of variables including completion date, the scale of development (levels), developer, and current development status.

The following figure highlights the concentration of completed apartment projects within the inner Melbourne region where there is stronger rental demand from younger households looking to live close to where they work, study and socialise. Similarly, higher property values in these inner locations mean that apartments represent a more affordable alternative to either renting or purchasing a traditional house or townhouse.

There are however a number of suburban locations such as Bundoora and Clayton where there is stronger demand from students at Latrobe and Monash universities, as well as at Doncaster due to the views offered from Doncaster Hill, and Box Hill offering local employment opportunities, efficient rail services to the CBD and the vibrancy of the Asian themed Box Hill activity centre.

Similarly, locations such as University Hill have supported medium scale apartment projects as part of a masterplanned mixed use development as has more recently occurred with the Polaris 3083 adjacent to Latrobe University in Bundoora.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Figure 14: Apartment Completions* by Postcode 2000-2014

Source: Charter Keck Cramer * projects of 10 for more apartments

In addition to the overall number of apartments, the scale of individual apartment projects also reflects the underlying depth of demand across metropolitan Melbourne. As shown in the figure below, over the past decade the dominant scale of development has been projects of less than 30 apartments of which only a very small portion were located within either the outer Melbourne region or within Melbourne’s growth areas (GA).

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Figure 15: Apartment Projects Completed (2005-2014) by Project Size

Source: Charter Keck Cramer

Figure 16: Total Apartments Completed (2005-2014) by Project Size

Source: Charter Keck Cramer

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The distribution of townhouse development is however much more uniform across metropolitan Melbourne and is generally between that of apartments and traditional detached dwellings. This would be expected given the land requirements of townhouses which limit their affordability within Melbourne’s inner region, together with competition from detached dwellings in outer suburban locations where there is a growing availability of smaller lots for detached houses in new residential estates.

Townhouses represent a viable alternative to traditional detached housing in many suburban areas given that they still offer private open space (e.g. courtyard), storage (e.g. garage) and greater privacy than an apartment.

8.3

Local Housing Market Fundamentals A key indicator of a local housing market’s readiness for medium density residential development is detached house prices (at a suburb level) as a proxy for a suburb’s relative attractiveness to residents and represents a capitalisation (in monetary terms) of the suburb’s various attributes.

There is a clearly established hierarchy of housing forms and prices across Melbourne. The emergence of a critical mass of apartments within a suburb of at least 300 contemporary apartments demonstrates that the housing market within a location has reached a point of maturity with clearly identifiable price points within the detached housing, townhouse and apartment markets. At this time there will be broad-based market support for apartment development at a suburb level as distinct from niche projects in selected locations offering higher levels of amenity and access to services.

As affordability thresholds are breached for traditional housing within a location, the market seeks a lower cost alternative. Historically, townhouses have represented the next closest substitute to conventional detached housing as they provide a cheaper entry price point into a preferred location through trading-off land and building size for location. Once the townhouse market is established and its own price levels breach affordability thresholds, then a legitimate apartment market may begin to emerge.

Figure 17: Housing Hierarchy - Progression

An analysis of the median house price of individual suburbs relative to the Melbourne metropolitan median identifies the Median House Price Ratio (MHPR) required to support a mature apartment market which is defined as being approximately 300 contemporary apartment completions across several projects. This level of development represents the point where suburban markets have typically emerged from an initial market testing phase to give developers and financiers the necessary comfort about local market conditions to consider larger scale apartment developments.

The MHPR has been calculated historically and analysed relative to the historic volumes of apartment completions within individual suburbs. This analysis has enabled the identification of the relationship between housing market prices and apartment delivery across all suburbs where there is now a viable apartment market.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

The main findings of this analysis were that: 

Apartment markets emerge, and are later entrenched, in suburbs where the economic cost of apartment development is supported by the underlying MHPR and house price hierarchy.



Unsophisticated, small projects (<25 apartments) are universally supported when the MHPR for a suburb reaches around 1.4 which suggests a minimum suburb median house price of approximately $710,000.



Further strengthening in the MHPR to around 1.5 creates conditions for smaller scale commercial projects (50 - 75 apartments and less than 5 levels) which suggest a minimum suburb median house price of around $750,000.



Commercial scale development (>75 apartments and more than five levels) is legitimised where the MHPR of a suburb exceeds 1.6 which suggests a minimum suburb median house price of $815,000. Larger scale projects require a stronger house price base due to higher delivery costs.

Importantly, these indicators of market acceptability cannot be considered in isolation as a determinant of apartment market supply but rather is indicative of a suburb’s potential to universally support apartment development within the housing market price hierarchy.

It needs to be recognised that this indicator is a broad measure of the potential for apartment development based upon market conditions at a suburb level. Within any suburb, there is likely to be locations such as within an activity centre, close to public transport or near recreational facilities such as parks that contribute to the overall liveability within that particular location which may support higher density apartment projects.

As a result, apartment development may occur in suburbs where median house prices are below the indicative thresholds including the Greensborough activity Centre. The figure below shows the median house price for selected suburbs within the City of Banyule relative to these median house price thresholds for various scales of apartment development. As would be expected median house prices in the suburbs of Ivanhoe, Heidelberg and Rosanna have reached the relevant indicative median price threshold required to support the scale of development that has occurred.

Figure 18: Selected Suburbs – Median House Price and Indicative Apartment Project Thresholds 2013

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Source: Valuer General Victoria, Charter Keck Cramer

Median house prices in Greensborough in 2013 were $520,000 which is only marginally higher than $508,000 recorded across metropolitan Melbourne. However over the period 2000-2013 Greensboroughâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s median house price has grown at a slower rate than at the metropolitan level.

In contrast to this, the suburbs of Rosanna, Ivanhoe and Heidelberg have generally experienced an increase in house prices above that of metropolitan Melbourne which would have contributed to their ability to support apartment development.

Figure 19: Median House price Growth 2000-2013

Source: Valuer General Victoria

8.4

Greensborough Activity Centre The above discussion provides a context for understanding the opportunities for medium density housing development within the Greensborough activity centre. As already indicated at the beginning of this section the majority of housing development within the centre has been through the redevelopment of the existing housing sites for semi-detached dwellings such as townhouses.

This pattern of townhouse development plays a key role in the establishment of a medium density housing market within Greensborough and represents an important step in the transition from traditional low density housing forms to potentially higher density residential development in the future.

The property market fundamentals necessary to support apartment development do not currently exist within Greensborough with median house prices comparable to that of the wider metropolitan area. With house prices also increasing at a slower rate than metropolitan Melbourne they are unlikely to reach the necessary price thresholds to support broad-based apartment development in the foreseeable future. For example, median house prices would need to increase by around 40% to reach the indicative price threshold for smaller scale apartment projects.

The Greensborough activity centre does however offer immediate access to regional shopping facilities, public transport and recreational opportunities including the aquatic centre as well as

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

nearby parklands. This may provide the opportunity for smaller scale niche projects that are able to cater for specific segments of the market such as local households seeking an investment property which may be occupied by children or possibly retirees looking to downsize to a lower maintenance property in order to allow them to travel.

The structure plan will play a key role in supporting future medium and higher density development within the centre through creating a higher amenity environment and lifestyle opportunities. This is essential to providing the incentive for potential occupants to trade-off the benefits of lower density housing for those associated with living within the activity centre.

Any future apartment development will most likely initially be in the form of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;shop topâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; housing where there is the opportunity to add value to any redevelopment of an existing site. Over time there may be the opportunity for dedicated apartment developments once there is a sufficient depth of demand to support the necessary pre-sales required to obtain development finance.

The scale of any longer term apartment projects will most likely average 20-30 apartments which would be best suited to sites of less than 1,000 m² or as part of a mixed use development on a larger site. The scale of development will also reflect the capacity of local builder/developers being those which are most likely to show interest in undertaking development within the centre.

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

COMMERCIAL OFFICES While there may be the opportunity to leverage off Greensborough’s role as a regional shopping destination to attract other activities, this does not fully translate to the office sector due to a number of key fundamental differences between it and the retail sector.

The important features of regional retail centres are the synergies between retailers which results in a high level of cross-shopping, and the role of large department stores in anchoring a centre and creating the key attraction for shoppers. Essentially, the scale and retail mix of a centre attracts shoppers from an extended area.

Businesses occupying commercial office space differ from retailers through not being dependent upon either a large occupant or strong synergies between businesses. Rather, office based businesses largely operate in isolation of other businesses and are not as dependent upon being able to physically attract customers as retailers are. Therefore in a physical sense, many businesses are disconnected from other businesses and their customers which is the opposite of retailers.

The exception to this is businesses that may service local households and other businesses, such as accountants, solicitors, financial planners and real estate agents which may benefit from exposure to residents shopping within Greensborough. Similarly, being easily located by clients may be attractive to businesses as may be the profile associated with being within a regional centre.

For businesses servicing beyond the local market, the key locational requirement is the ability to attract skilled workers and therefore expand the size of their business over time.

For these businesses, workers are the equivalent of shoppers to retailers through determining business productivity and profitability. However there are a number of factors that influence the ability of businesses to attract workers including: 

The non-generic nature of businesses (unlike retailing) which results in businesses requiring a range of specialist skills, and potentially needing to attract workers from across a wider area.



A higher proportion of resident workers living in Melbourne’s south eastern suburbs than in other areas of Melbourne, together with the demographic centre of Melbourne being in Melbourne’s south eastern region.



Accessibility to public transport, retail facilities and services.



A central location within the Melbourne CBD or inner suburbs, particularly for businesses that service a metropolitan market or require specialist workers that must be drawn from across the wider metropolitan area.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT



The image of an area as a business location.

Another key factor determining where a business may locate is where the business owner or chief executive lives. As a result, areas with a higher proportion of white collar professionals and entrepreneurs typically have a higher level of office related activity.

Office related activities are therefore notably more complex than retailing in terms of their business operations, the markets that they service, the products that they offer, and employee skills required. As a result, the location decisions of businesses reflect a number of factors that determine their productivity and profitability.

9.1

Key Drivers Development opportunities within the suburban office sector are therefore driven by a number of key considerations, the relative importance of which will vary depending upon the size and nature of individual businesses. These include: 

Socio-Economic Profile of Residents

A key source of demand for suburban office space is local residents establishing businesses initially from home and then from offices located close to where they live. Even as businesses grow and need to consider access to clients and employees, the proximity to owner’s or managing director’s home remains a key consideration. 

Exposure, Convenience and Amenity

Accessibility to public transport, retail facilities and car parking are key considerations in businesses choosing where to locate in order to attract employees. High exposure locations are particularly important for larger corporate organisations as is the image that a location projects. 

Affordability and Functionality

The capacity of businesses to afford office accommodation is largely determined by their stage of development. As businesses evolve and become more profitable their capacity to afford newer purpose-built accommodation increases. Typically start-up businesses are initially either ‘homebased’, located in a business incubator, or within a serviced office. As a home-based business grows it may relocate to affordable office premises including shop fronts in local shopping strips offering affordable space. Continued growth will create the opportunity for businesses to upgrade to purpose built office suites offering higher quality accommodation. 

Occupant Profile

The profile of occupants, and the market they serve, is a key determinant of the location, size and format of office floorspace required. This may range from smaller businesses requiring office suites through to government agencies and corporates that may require a whole floor of a corporate style office building. Therefore a distinction needs to be made between office suites catering for smaller users and corporate offices to meet the needs of larger users. 

Quasi Office Space

Traditional retail strips may have a surplus of retail floorspace and relatively low rents, which provides a source of affordable office space for small businesses. In addition, these centres may offer good access to public transport as well as retail facilities and cafes. The availability of this alternative source of office space may therefore limit the opportunity for purpose built office space to be developed.

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The development of commercial offices within the Greensborough activity centre will be dependent upon satisfying the requirements of various categories of occupants (refer table below). The needs of each type of occupant will vary depending upon whether it is a small business, government agency or corporate organisation. The ability of Greensborough to meet the needs of each of these potential office users will determine the capacity for office development to occur within the centre.

Table 12: Key Drivers of Office Development by Type of Occupant Relative Importance Drivers for Users

Proximity to clients / Suppliers Proximity to Professâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l workforce Proximity to Admin. / Clerical workforce Accessibility - Road

Accessibility â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Public Transport Provision of on-site carparking On-site retail amenity Proximity to retail amenity (off-site walking distance) ESD building features

Concentration of other offices

Proximity to large office nodes

Market conditions in nearby office nodes Proximity to CEOs / Managing Director's residential location

Small Private

Goverment Corporate (50+ Agency / (<10 employees) Dept employees)

Importance of Driver Very Low

Average

Very High

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

The most important factors influencing the location decisions of each of these office users are: 





9.2

Small Businesses -

proximity to the owner’s / managing director’s residence;

-

provision of on-site car parking

Government Agency / Department -

proximity to an administrative / clerical workforce;

-

accessibility via public transport

-

on-site retail facilities

-

Environmental sustainable building features

Corporate Organisation -

Proximity to a professional workforce

-

Access via road

-

Provision of on-site car parking

-

On-site retail amenity

-

Concentration of other offices

-

Proximity to large office nodes

-

Market conditions in nearby office nodes

Metropolitan Context The future demand for commercial office space by private businesses within the Greensborough Activity Centre has been assessed based upon the centre’s likely future position within metropolitan and regional office markets, the types of businesses that are likely to be attracted, and the relationship with local population growth.

Private sector demand for commercial office space originates from a number of sources including: 

Larger corporate organisations servicing customers at a metropolitan, national and international level, typically located within the Melbourne CBD and inner city office precincts;



Small and medium sized businesses providing relatively specialised services from locations across the metropolitan area. Such businesses typically locate either within inner Melbourne or in suburban business parks and office precincts close to Melbourne’s transport network to allow them to easily service clients and attract skilled workers from across a wide area.



Small businesses servicing local residents and businesses which locate close to their customer base, and usually in activity centres and along major roads offering the greatest exposure to potential customers.

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The key private sector industries that generate demand for suburban office space are: 

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services



Financial and Insurance Services



Administrative and Support Services



Information Media and Telecommunications

Approximately 90% of workers within these industries are employed in traditional office-based occupations. The main exception to this are ‘cleaners and laundry workers’ within the ‘administrative and support services’ sector which account for around 5% of total workers across the four industries.

There will also be demand from other businesses that are classified as being part of other industries that may require office space, such as building companies. Similarly there may be businesses that are part of the four key industries identified above, but which may be either home-based businesses or operate in quasi offices such as retail premises or residential dwellings. For the purpose of analysing potential floorspace demand within the Greensborough activity centre however, it is considered reasonable to assume that these two factors balance each other out.

For smaller businesses in outer suburban locations the relationship with the local population is two-fold with: 

Residents requiring a range of business services such as accountants, solicitors, tax agents, real estate agents, and financial planners.



Local residents seeking to establish businesses close to where they live.

As a result, there is a strong connection between local population levels and employment in business services related activities.

9.2.1

Distribution of Office Employment Commercial office markets are typically characterised by a distinct hierarchy, dominated by a central business district as well as a number of key suburban office precincts. In addition, particular regions are usually favoured for office development based upon their ability to access a white collar workforce.

In order to identify and analyse the existing distribution of office employment across metropolitan Melbourne, a number of regions have been defined based upon their role as office locations as well as the socio economic profile of residents and the location of key road infrastructure. The figure below identifies these regions with the City of Banyule located in the Inner North region.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Figure 20: Employment Regions

Source: ABS, Charter Keck Cramer

In 2011 the Melbourne CBD accounted for 156,482 workers within the four business sectors identified as representing office activities, from a total of 341,070 office workers across the combined regions. However it is the pattern of office employment across suburban Melbourne which is of most interest in identifying future opportunities for office employment within the Greensborough Activity Centre.

As shown in the figure below, office employment is distributed across metropolitan Melbourne in a hierarchical fashion with employment declining exponentially. This rank size distribution is a common characteristic of urban systems (for example the population of cities) and typically reflects the locational needs of businesses based upon the markets that they are servicing.

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Figure 21: Distribution of Suburban Office Employment by Region

Source: ABS, Charter Keck Cramer

9.2.2 Benchmarking Office Employment The hierarchical distribution of office employment identified above is well established and reflects a number of factors including the attraction of each region to businesses servicing local, metropolitan and national markets as well as their capacity to attract white collar workers.

Demand for office space by corporate organisations in Melbourne’s northern region is limited by a number of factors including the overall size and skill base of the local resident workforce relative to Melbourne’s eastern and south-eastern regions, and the historical role of the CBD and these two regions as corporate office locations.

There are two opposing factors acting to determine the level of demand for commercial office space in any particular location being: 

The business requirements of larger businesses which may dictate that they locate in a central location, where they are able to service geographically dispersed customers and attract specialist staff.



A requirement for smaller businesses providing generic services to a local population, to be located as close as possible to where customers and the business owner live.

Given the number and complexity of the factors influencing the location of office activities, any attempt to model future office employment in any one location is likely to be futile, particularly given that many of these factors are unable to be quantified. In addition, any such model would effectively represent a ‘black box’ and therefore lack the transparency required to allow discussion across various professional disciplines.

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Benchmarking the Greensborough Activity Centre against other locations across metropolitan Melbourne represents a more transparent approach to identifying the future level of office employment that may be supported. Importantly, any professional judgements with respect to the future role and function of Greensborough as an office location are explicit within the context of the wider metropolitan area.

Consistent with outer suburban locations, Greensborough’s future role as an office location is expected to be to provide accommodation for smaller businesses and government organisations servicing local residents and businesses. While there may also be additional one-off opportunities for larger businesses to also be attracted to the centre, this will be largely speculative and have not been considered for the purpose of this assessment.

9.2.3 Regional Office Employment Analysis As already discussed above, office employment primarily relates to the following sectors:  Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 

Financial and Insurance Services



Administrative and Support Services



Information Media and Telecommunications

Employment in these four sectors is concentrated within the Melbourne CBD, CBD Fringe regions and to a lesser extent within the Inner East region (refer table below). This is reflected in not only actual employment numbers but also the number of jobs per 1,000 residents. Outside of these three inner regions, the number of jobs to residents is reasonably consistent within the range 21 - 44 jobs per 1,000 residents.

Furthermore, this variance in employment rates may be logically explained by the location of these regions within the broader metropolitan context. For example, the Inner South region (44 jobs per 1,000 residents) has a higher employment rate due to a number of key office precincts (Clayton, Moorabbin, Cheltenham, Frankston) and the generally higher socio-economic profile of residents. Similarly, the Inner West region includes office precincts such as Footscray and Moonee Ponds.

Table 13: Industry Employment by Metropolitan Region 2011 Region

Population

Office Employment

CBD

101,919

156,482

Employment per 1,000 Residents 1,535

CBD Fringe

262,289

58,494

223

Inner East

422,856

34,698

82

Inner South

573,737

25,153

44

Inner West

222,440

8,552

38

Inner North East

111,411

3,484

31

Outer East

720,045

22,348

31

Inner North

407,399

11,492

28

Outer North-West

169,407

4,238

25

Outer North-East

209,093

4,521

22

74,333

1,582

21

487,232

10,026

21

3,762,161

341,070

91

Cardinia Outer West Total

Source: ABS, Charter Keck Cramer

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Importantly, the outer suburban regions have the lowest employment rates being in the range 21 – 25 jobs per thousand residents, with the only exception to this being the Outer East region (31 jobs per 1,000 residents).

This pattern highlights the role of each region as an office location for larger businesses servicing a wide geographic market, through to smaller businesses servicing local households.

Businesses within the CBD would be almost entirely in the first group while those in Melbourne’s outer region would primarily service local households.

9.3

Greensborough Activity Centre The City of Banyule lies within the Inner North region identified above which has an overall office employment rate of 28 jobs per 1000 residents. Across the City of Banyule there are 3,829 office jobs giving an average employment rate of 32 office jobs per 1000 residents as shown in the table below.

At a suburb level, Heidelberg-Rosanna has the highest level of employment with 838 jobs representing 21.8% of total office employment followed by Greensborough with 685 jobs and Ivanhoe with 551.

Table 14: City of Banyule – Office Employment per Resident 2011 Suburb

Office Employment

Population

Office Employment per 1,000 Residents

Bundoora - East

158

9,517

16.6

Greensborough

685

20,228

33.9

Heidelberg - Rosanna

838

13,615

61.5

Heidelberg West

409

13,445

30.4

Ivanhoe

551

11,086

49.7

327

7,691

42.5

376

15,629

24.1

Viewbank - Yallambie

346

18,111

19.1

Watsonia

139

8,986

15.5

3,829

118,308

32.4

Ivanhoe East Eaglemont Montmorency - Briar Hill

Total Source: ABS

Heidelberg-Rosanna also has the highest employment rate with 61 jobs per 1,000 residents which reflects its role as a recognised office precinct with a number of purpose-built office buildings with the head offices of a number of national companies including Lawrence and Hansen (Electrical retailers) and Dorevitch Pathology. This is followed by Ivanhoe and Ivanhoe East-Eaglemont with 49 and 42 jobs per 1,000 residents which is most likely a reflection of the more affluent residents of these suburbs.

Greensborough is ranked fourth out of the nine suburbs within Banyule with an employment rate of 34 jobs per 1000 residents which is slightly above the municipal average of 32.4 jobs. This is generally consistent with Greensborough’s fringe location, role as a regional centre and

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

demographic profile of the households that it services. It would not be expected to have the same attraction to larger businesses such as those within Heidelberg and the demographic profile of households would not support the same level of business services found in locations such as Ivanhoe. It does however benefit from being a regional destination and offering a similar level of amenity and services as the Heidelberg activity centre 9.4

Development Opportunities Based upon the above analysis it would be reasonable to conclude the Greensborough activity centre is performing as would be expected in terms of the amount of office employment that it currently supports. Given the projected slow growth in the population within the area that it services the Greensborough activity centre would not be expected to attract a significant increase in new private office related activities.

The demand for new office space may however come from existing businesses upgrading into purpose-built offices that may become available. Such projects may be supported through demand from health providers not requiring specialist facilities which may assist in achieving necessary lease pre-commitments.

There may also be demand for office space from government departments and agencies as has already been demonstrated with the recent development of a new Centrelink / Medicare office building at 16-20 Grimshaw Street (east of the aquatic centre) and a number of related service providers. The proposed relocation of Councilâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s municipal offices to a new facility above the aquatic centre may reinforce the centreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s role as a locational for government services.

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10. HEALTH AND WELLBEING The existing health precinct on Grimshaw Street offers the opportunity to leverage new purpose-built medical facilities as well as support demand for commercial office space that may be occupied by health providers not requiring purpose-built space. Given the specialised nature of health services it is difficult to predict the likelihood of attracting investment in new facilities, This section provides an overview of the key drivers of demand within the sector and the potential opportunity for an expansion of the existing health precinct.

10.1 Key Demand Drivers The health sector is not only a major employer with Greensborough, but also the wider metropolitan area and nationally. Over the period 2006-2011 employment in Melbourne’s ‘Health Care and Social Assistance’ sector grew by 48% compared to a population increase of only 18%.

While an ageing population is commonly cited as being a major driver of demand for health services, there have also been a number of other factors supporting growth within the sector including: 

An increasing focus on preventative medicine and wellness to address potential health issues before they require high cost hospital care.



A willingness by state governments to use private providers in the provision of public health services to contain the rate of growth in spending on health.



Growing demand within the community for non-discretionary health services, underpinned by strong demographic trends, advances in technology and rising consumer expectations.

10.1.1 Health Insurance Membership The private health insurance sector is also a key source of demand for health services. As at March 2013, 47% of Australians had private health insurance which covered them for hospital treatment and 55% were covered for general treatment which includes services such as dental, optical, physiotherapy and chiropractic services.

The figure below indicates that the proportion of the Australian population covered by hospital insurance increased from 30% to 45% in 2000 when the Federal Government introduced Lifetime Health Cover (LHC). LHC resulted in premium loadings for people who first take out cover after the age of 30 years and for people who interrupt memberships for three years or more after the age of 30. Prior to the introduction of LHC in 2000 (and the 30 per cent rebate of private health insurance premiums in January 1999) hospital insurance memberships had been declining at 4 around 3% per annum over 1991-1999.

4

The South Australian Centre for Economic Studies (2003), Review of Lifetime Health Cover Scheme

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Figure 22: Australia: Hospital Insurance Coverage (% of Population)

Source: Private Health Insurance Administration Council5, ABS, Charter Keck Cramer

The Private Health Insurance Administration Council publishes quarterly statistics on the level of benefits paid by private health insurers for hospital treatment and general treatment. This provides an indication of the level of demand for privately funded healthcare services at a national level.

Prior to the introduction of the LHC, benefits paid for hospital treatments were relatively stable at just under $0.8 billion per quarter. Over the 13 years since the LHCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s introduction, benefits paid for hospital treatments have increased steadily by 10% per annum to just under $3 billion per quarter. Similarly, over the past decade benefits paid for general treatments have also been increasing steadily at an average rate of 7.8% per annum.

Figure 23: Australia: Benefits Paid by Treatment Type (Quarterly)

Source: Private Health Insurance Administration Council

5

Private Health Insurance Administration Council, Benefits Trends Australia (Jun 2013)

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10.1.2 Ageing Population There is projected to be an increasing number of older aged residents within Greensborough and the surrounding region. The key question to be asked is what impact this growth in the number of older residents is likely to have upon demand for services of private health providers within the Greensborough activity centre.

The following figure shows the relationship between age and private healthcare benefits paid per person for hospital and general treatment. As a result, the identified ageing of residents within Greensborough and the wider area would be expected to result in increasing demand for health services provided both within and outside of a hospital environment.

Figure 24: Australia: Benefits Paid Per Person by Age Group 2012-2013

Source: Private Health Insurance Administration Council

The above figure however does highlight that the increasing demand for general medical treatment commences at a young age and peaks at around 50 years when hospital treatment becomes increasingly necessary. Therefore demand for the services of private health providers should not be seen as being restricted to older age groups. The following figure reports ABS data on the proportion of people that consulted a health professional in 2011-2012 and indicates a steady increase throughout a personâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lifetime.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Figure 25: Australia: Proportion of People Consulting a Health Professional 2011-12

Source: ABS Cat no. 4364.0.55.002

10.2 Opportunities The above discussion highlights a number of key drivers of demand for health services within the Greensborough activity centre given the opportunity to build upon the existing health precinct on Grimshaw Street.

There is a long established trend for health precincts to be located adjacent to major hospitals, this primarily relates to those services provided by medical specialists and the need for doctors to make daily visits to patients in these hospitals. There are however a wide range of health services unrelated to hospital treatments that may be provided in a variety of locations. Examples of these include general practitioners, doctors, radiologists, physiotherapists and optometrists.

The mix of service providers within the Greensboroughâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s existing health precinct highlights the diversity of potential activities given that the precinct already includes a dialysis clinic as well as more traditional service providers such as medical imaging and pathology.

There may also be the opportunity to create synergies with Watermarc as part of a wider health and well-being precinct. Therefore consideration may be given to potential opportunities for Council to partner with health service providers to allow a wider mix of community health services.

The form of development potentially supported in the centre may include purpose-built medical centres offering a range of health and diagnostic services, with the potential for specialist medical services to also be included. Alternatively, health services may also support demand for more traditional office-based medical services as part of a multipurpose office building where purpose built facilities are not required.

Given the availability of larger sites within the Greensborough health precinct there may also be the opportunity for a day hospital. Day hospitals account for an increasing proportion of surgical procedures due to advances in medical technology (e.g. endoscopic surgery) and anaesthesia (e.g. short-anaesthetic agents) reducing the need for patients to be admitted overnight. Since the opening of Australiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s first purpose-built day surgery in 1982 the number of registered private

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GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

stand-alone Day hospitals increased to 289 by 2013 with approximately 50% of all acute surgical 6 procedures now performed in day hospitals .

10.3 Conclusion The existing health precinct fronting Grimshaw Street represents a key strategic opportunity for the further expansion of the range of service providers to meet the needs of the growing number of older residents within the surrounding region. In addition, the rate of growth within the health sector also provides strong opportunities for attracting investment across a range of purpose built facilities that may potentially include a day hospital.

Given the proximity of the health precincts to the aquatic centre there will also be the opportunity for the creation of a broader health and well-being precinct. This may enable incorporation of lifestyle and recreational related activities (e.g. gymnasiums, rock-climbing etc.) which would further strengthen the ability to attract visitors from across the wider region.

An expansion of the health precinct would also include the opportunity for medical services to support the development of new office floorspace where a purpose-built medical facility is not required. This may facilitate the establishment of a mixed-use medical/commercial precinct adjacent to a dedicated health precinct.

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Australian Day Hospital Association (2013), Profile of the Australian Day Hospital Association and the Day Hospital Industry

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

11. FOOD AND LIFESTYLE Given the regional role of the Greensborough activity centre as a retail centre, and more recently a recreational destination following the opening of Watermarc, there may be the opportunity for a greater focus upon lifestyle related activities. This may be reinforced by the proposed relocation of Council’s municipal offices from Rosanna with approximately 300 additional workers within the centre providing additional demand for cafes and take away food outlets.

An indication of the potential opportunities for Greensborough may be gained from centres such as the Glen Waverley activity centre and Knox shopping centre where lifestyle precincts have been established. Strong synergies with the existing retailers and cinemas would also be expected to support a wider range of hospitality related activities.

An important aspect of generating new hospitality related opportunities will be to provide a main street setting that is integrated with Greensborough Plaza, Greensborough Walk and Watermarc.

While this should focus upon creating a lifestyle rather than a retail environment there may also be the opportunity to incorporate gourmet food retailers that portray a strong lifestyle element.

Importantly, the creation of a lifestyle precinct will provide support for other new forms of development including commercial offices and apartments. Both of these activities rely upon higher levels of amenity for either staff or residents.

There may also be the opportunity to integrate lifestyle and food activities via a fresh food precinct. The James Street market in Brisbane which is profiled below is one example of where the concept of food as a form of entertainment has been explored. While such a concept is generally reliant upon a more affluent population, it offers the opportunity to be appropriately scaled to complement Greensborough Plaza and potentially the health and well-being precinct as a regional attraction.

11.1 Case Studies 11.1.1 Glen Waverley Activity Centre: Kingsway Precinct Kingsway is a key cafe and restaurant precinct within the Glen Waverley Activity Centre with a significant level of activity supported during the day and into the evening. Although the precinct has a strong Asian focus, it still highlights the potential to build upon the existing restaurants already located within Greensborough’s Main Street particularly given the proposed activation of the cinema’s street frontage.

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11.1.2 Knox Ozone Precinct (Knox Shopping Centre) The Knox Ozone precinct is integrated into the retail core of the Knox Shopping Centre while still maintaining a role as a distinct destination precinct offering a critical mass of cafes and restaurants within an outdoor setting. The precinct is also co-located with a Village Cinema complex.

11.1.3 Case Study: James Street Market Brisbane James Street Market was developed on a former industrial site in 2002 as a ‘destination lifestyle’ precinct with a range of fresh food, dining and homewares outlets within an indoor/outdoor retail environment. Essentially, it marries a number of elements that together provide a strong lifestyle theme. This is also a focus of its marketing statement being: ‘Located in New Farm's popular James Street, James St Market offers a unique urban food retail experience. James St Market offers everything one needs, to entertain or be entertained.’

Details: Website: jamesstmarket.com.au Location: 22 James Street, Fortitude Valley QLD Year of Completion 2002 Project Owner/Developer Calile Malouf Investments Land Area: 4,105sqm approximately Internal Area Ground floor 1,833 sqm / First Floor 233 sqm Courtyard Area 370m² approximately No of storeys 1 storey + Mezzanine Cost $3,000,000

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

Image: S Jannides, 2010)

Traders The concept of the James Street Market is also reflected in the mix of traders and how each markets themselves to customers. These have been listed below.

Change the Essence Change the Essence offers a holistic approach to health, beauty & wellness. Spa treatments, skin care products, vitamins + supplements, books and more.

Cru Bar + Cellar Changing the way Brisbane thinks about food & wine. Cru is an award winning wine bar, wine store, restaurant and function venue, all under one roof.

Fine Fruit On James The freshest fruit & vegetables and the highest level of personalised customer service in Brisbane.

Flowertrap Stunning arrangements and fresh cut flowers for corporate offices, hotels, restaurants and home.

French Twist French Twist offers a terrific selection of fresh breads, pastries and tarts.

Fresh Fish Co Premium quality fresh seafood direct from the ocean to you. Fresh sushi plus a selection of cooked seafood also available.

James St Cooking School Be inspired to reach your culinary potential. Learn to cook restaurant quality meals at home.

Private classes + tuition are available catering for functions and events.

Prime Specialty Meats Top end Private Selection and MSA approved meats including the finest cuts from the best regions in Australia. Expert advice and recipes to create the perfect meal at home.

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Quench Fresh gelati, sorbet, juices, smoothies, sandwiches, wraps and salads. All made fresh daily using ingredients from market tenants.

Spoon Spoon offers a unique dining and deli experience with a stylish eating solution for every occasion — dining out, eating at home, and catering for special events, parties and gifts.

The Nut Market A large range of premium quality nuts and specialty products including dried fruits, chocolate coated nuts and berries, snack foods, herbs and spices, grains and seeds and quality chocolate.

Wheel and Barrow A selection of exclusive homewares from around the world. Staff have knowledge in the areas of cooking, serving and entertaining, making Wheel and Barrow the homeware store for more than just the ingredients.

Development Concept 7

A published interview with the developer of the James Street Market provides an insight into the concept of the market “Michael Malouf sits in Vroom at James Street and sips a coffee as he talks about how his company, Calile Malouf Investments redeveloped the site, with particular focus on the James Street Market“ which opened in 2002.

We were involved in some restaurants in Brisbane and we got an understanding of food, and just by travelling and seeing other cities and their amazing food markets, we thought that Brisbane needed somewhere to buy fresh produce, he says.

We could get amazing fish delivered to the back door of the restaurant but we couldn’t buy it in a retail outlet so we started to think about bringing a market to Brisbane.

The philosophy was to avoid the bland experience of a supermarket. You see European markets where people go down and talk to their green grocer and their fish monger and their butcher and accumulate great product and stop off and have a cup of coffee or an icecream.

We are trying to reacquaint people with their local food providore. Michael says the next step is to develop James Street, which boasts some 150 retailers, into its own brand.

We’ve tried to make it more of a lifestyle precinct he says.”

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http://www.visitbrisbane.com.au/Travel/About-Brisbane/Feature-Story.aspx?id=14629

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT

12. APPENDIX A: COMPETING CENTRE TRADE AREAS Figure 26: Westfield Doncaster Trade Area

Source: Westfield

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Figure 27: Westfield Plenty Valley Trade Area

Source: Westfield

Figure 28: Northland Trade Area

Source: Northland Leasing Brochure 2008