Housing Industry News Vol. 4 Issue 4 - September 2020

VOL. 4 ISSUE 4, SEPT. 2020

THE MINNESOTA HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS SOURCE BY HOUSING FIRST MINNESOTA • HOUSINGINDUSTRYNEWS.ORG

Citing national high marks in current energy performance, those opposed to a new residential code are concerned about the housing affordability impacts.

Debate continues over new residential energy code Housing industry, code officials united against adoption Will Minnesota adopt a new residential energy code this code cycle, or will it maintain the current standard? Builders and code officials have been waiting for the answer to this for several years now.

An Aug. 3 administrative law hearing was the first major step directed at answering this question. The hearing was initially scheduled for May 18 but was delayed due to the spring’s stay-at-home order.

The hearing fulfilled a federal mandate which requires that states must review the U.S. Department of Energy’s (US DOE) analysis of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC).

Judge Eric Lipman, who presided over the hearing, will be weighing the arguments and technical information provided by interested parties and the Department of Labor and Industry (DLI). He will then issue his recommendation to

the DLI Commissioner, who will make the final determination on whether to open rulemaking proceedings or not.

If DLI opts not to open rulemaking on a new residential energy code, no further actions will be taken until the next code adoption process.

Opening rulemaking, on the other hand, would restart the residential energy code technical review process. In 2018, the Department’s Energy Code Technical Advisory Group (TAG) completed its work only on the commercial energy code.

A technical review of the 2015 and 2018 IECC changes and any proposed amendments would likely take months, or potentially longer.

Builders, REALTORS®, building officials opposed to new energy code

Citing national high marks in current energy performance, those opposed to the opening of a new residential energy code focused on the housing affordability and related impacts which they believe a new code would unnecessarily bring forth.

During the Aug. 3 hearing, Nick Erickson, director of research and regulatory affairs at Housing First Minnesota, told the judge that Minnesota is facing a three-pronged housing crisis of affordability, availability and equity. Adopting a new energy code will increase housing costs and further deepen the crisis at a time when newly built homes are already among the most energy efficient in the country.

Housing First Minnesota also convened a group of associations opposing consideration of a new residential energy code.

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Multi-family housing in the COVID-19 era PAGE 6

Millennial surge drives housing market PAGE 9

Electrical code contested PAGE 4

CONTINUED >> PAGE 4

Lumber supply problems rise as housing demand surges The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic shutdowns across the country have caused widespread supply chain issues. Notably, issues with the lumber supply chain have caused further disruptions for new home construction.

Builders have noticed a sharp increase in the prices of these building materials.

Lumber prices were on a roller coaster of ups and downs before COVID-19 started. Three years ago, the Trump administration placed a tariff of about 20% on Canadian softwood lumber. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that these tariffs added about $9,000 to the cost of a typical new home.

CONTINUED >> PAGE 2 HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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2960 Centre Pointe Drive Roseville, MN 55113 HousingFirstMN.org

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PRESIDENT’S NOTE

Housing emerges When COVID-19 was unfolding in early March the housing industry moved quickly to address health and safety issues, while the world absorbed a new normal with more questions than answers. During this time, our industry held its collective breath as we looked into the near-term future of the housing market and broader economy. Given our experience in the great depression of housing from 2007-2011, the concerns were deep and unsettling.

With the benefit of several months since those dark days in March, we’ve seen a remarkable strength and a rebound in the housing market. Demand, buttressed by historically low interest rates, has pushed the industry to a V-shaped recovery. In virtually every conversation I have with our industry members, companies are busy, and our customers are making major housing decisions.

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

In the big picture, we know that we need even more growth to fix our deep undersupply of homes. This is especially true at the starter-home level where we have one of the worst inventories of these homes in the country.

But to emerge strongly from the spring’s economic uncertainty is quite remarkable and something we should all be thankful for.

As we finish summer and look toward fall, our industry remains focused on COVID-19 preparedness protocols to ensure that our customers, employee and trade partners are all safe.

We are also continuing the timely and important work to open up the market to allow for more housing choices at all price points.

The emergence of a strong housing recovery has shown all of us that Minnesotans prioritize housing. It’s critical that we all pull together now to make sure that we are creating a housing

September 2020, Volume 4, Issue 4 PUBLISHER David Siegel David@HousingFirstMN.org EDITOR Katie Elfstrom Katie@HousingFirstMN.org Gary Kraemer 2020 President, Housing First Minnesota

market with the opportunity of homeownership for everyone, everywhere.

Onward,

GRAPHIC DESIGN Hannah Swan ACCOUNTING Janice Meyer ADVERTISING SALES Brad Meewes Kori Meewes CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Katie Elfstrom Katie@HousingFirstMN.org

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Housing Industry News is a publication of Housing First Minnesota. Housing Industry News is published and distributed six times per year to housing industry professionals and others associated with the homebuilding industry. Neither the advertisers, nor Housing First Minnesota, will be responsible or liable for misinformation, misprints, typographical errors, etc., herein contained. For address change information, contact Housing First Minnesota. Suggestions, ideas and letters are welcome.

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CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1

Lumber supply problems rise as housing demand surges This situation, together now with other supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand for housing of all types, has caused an alarming challenge for the homebuilding industry. The average price per thousand board feet was $348 in April. Those prices have since surged 80% to $627 in July, on average.

John Zirbes, branch manager of Lyman Lumber, says the initial concern that COVID-19 would stall the demand for new housing lead to ripple effects across the housing industry and supply chain. But homebuyers did not shy away from the market like predicted and remodeling and do-it-yourself activity picked up as well.

“When we reached the COVID-19 outbreak last spring, we saw adjusted downward projections from builders which lead to suppliers cutting back on normal inventory levels and mills shuttering capacity. Instead of three shifts, they were running one,” said Zirbes. “Now with demand surging and capacity still down from the mills, they just can’t catch up. I’ve not seen prices

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

like this in my 35 years in the business, with 18 straight weeks of increases.”

“I’ve not seen prices like this in my 35 years in the business, with 18 straight weeks of increases.”

John Zirbes, BRANCH MANAGER, LYMAN LUMBER

As a result, thousands of dollars are being added to the cost of home construction. Several Minnesota builders reported to Housing Industry News that their lumber costs have doubled in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the strong demand for new homes remains.

The homebuilding industry has proven to be a bright spot for the recovering U.S. economy,

particularly single-family homebuilding, with permits pacing 3.4% higher during the first half of 2020 compared to the first half of 2019.

But housing affordability was already a growing problem before the global pandemic and any added cost will hinder buyers’ abilities to afford housing.

The high cost of lumber will unfortunately contribute to that problem. The good news is lumber should be a temporary part of that issue.

“For a couple of months, it will continue to be challenging from the supply side,” said Zirbes.

“Some ramp-up will take a bit longer and until mills can get back up to capacity, the lumber supply will be very tight and expensive. By early 2021, we can hopefully see some more supply and demand balance and prices will begin to even out.”

NAHB has sent a letter to President Trump to help ease the problem sooner by seeking a new softwood lumber agreement with Canada that would end tariffs averaging more than 20% on Canadian lumber shipments into the United States.

Housing First Minnesota is the voice for home builders, remodelers and all who are dedicated to building safe, durable homes at a price Minnesotans can afford.

Housing First Minnesota is dedicated to advancing the American dream of homeownership for Minnesotans and is the leading resource for housing-related issues in Minnesota.

This advocacy work has never been more important. The housing industry remains under intense regulatory and political pressures that impact Minnesota homeowners’ ability to buy, build, and remodel their dream home.

Housing First Minnesota supports reasonable policies, regulations and protections, but our call for affordability for families is a voice that must be heard.

Learn more at HousingFirstMN.org.

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THE HOUSING BEAT

Across the country, there is much talk about housing HERE ARE SOME OF THE LATEST QUOTES ON THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY:

“The housing affordability coalition must address the entire suite of regulations that stymie new, lowcost construction. What’s needed is more ‘missing middle’ housing.”

“...there is no greater distortion of the market than local zoning codes, and there are few bureaucracies doing more harm to property rights and freedom than local zoning offices.”

CHARLES MAROHN STRONG TOWNS

EMILY HAMILTON MERCATUS CENTER AT GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY

“Put simply, high housing costs in exclusive neighborhoods are a major obstacle to racial integration and economic mobility.”

“Until local zoning laws are adjusted, and local governments are willing to be deliberate about inclusive housing—in particular, income-inclusive housing—racial disparities will exist. And we won’t be able to build the affordable housing the country needs.”

JEFFERY HAYWARD FANNIE MAE

“The housing sector looks like it’s in a V-shaped recovery even though the rest of the economy is not. … But we know that once housing recovers strongly, at least past historical experience shows, the rest of the economy can sort of follow that path.”

DR. LAWRENCE YUN NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

JENNY SCHUETZ BROOKINGS INSTITUTE

“But it’s also about one of the most important issues in American politics, which is the systematic underproduction of housing due to excessive regulatory barriers.”

“Housing is scarce, more expensive, and out of reach for people with less money because local government has choked supply of housing in the market. That’s why we don’t need more affordable housing, but more housing so that it will be affordable.”

ROGER VALDEZ FORBES

MATTHEW YGLESIAS VOX

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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REGULATORY AFFAIRS MN NEW HOME ENERGY EFFICIENCY BY THE NUMBERS

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MOST EFFICIENT HIGH-PRODUCTION STATE

50 MEDIAN HERS RATING

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Debate continues over new residential energy code

The 2020 Electrical Code delayed due to concerns over the process.

Regulatory affairs roundup:

Electrical code contested, draft plumbing code sees technical corrections Electrical Code On Aug. 19, an administrative law judge will hold a hearing reviewing the adoption of the 2020 National Electrical Code, without amendments, as the latest electrical code for the State of Minnesota. Originally set to go into effect on July 1, the electrical code was delayed due to residential construction’s concerns over the process. Members of Housing First Minnesota called for the hearing in April.

“By practice, the Board of Electricity will not adopt Minnesota-specific amendments,” said Nick Erickson, director of research and regulatory affairs for Housing First Minnesota. “Even more troubling is that no electrician will publicly oppose the board, fearing retaliation. With broad powers over both rulemaking and licensing, the Board’s process stifles any open conversation that would allow amendments to come forward

and be fairly heard.”

The comment period for the adoption of the 2020 National Electric Code without amendments closes Sept. 8, followed by a one-week rebuttal period closing Sept. 15.

An update on the status of the electrical code hearing will be available in the October issue.

Plumbing Code At its July 21 meeting, the Minnesota Plumbing Board approved a revised version of the next proposed Minnesota plumbing code.

There were several items in the draft approved by the board in March that needed to be amended. This included aligning terms to approved definitions and several grammatical corrections.

While the changes did not alter the specifics of the code, the technical corrections were significant enough to require board approval.

The revised proposed plumbing code changes are available at HousingIndustryNews.org.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

The Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead submitted a letter stating that Minnesota’s energy code costs are one of several affordability roadblocks that exist in Minnesota. “Many of our Minnesota-based members already refuse to do business in Minnesota due to the cost to comply with complicated and often counterproductive rules,” wrote Bryce Johnson, CEO of the Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead. “Instead, they simply pay less to do business and build parallel and more affordable homes just across the river in Fargo, North Dakota.”

The Builders Association of Minnesota, Arrowhead Builders Association and the Central Minnesota Builders Association (CMBA) are also opposed to the adoption. Steve Gottwalt, government affairs consultant for CMBA, told Housing Industry News that involvement by builders is critical.

“It’s vitally important we all let our voices be heard,” said Gottwalt.

“The state needs to understand our concerns and the real impacts of these proposed changes before adopting them. We can have real impact when we speak up and speak together!”

The Minnesota Realtors® also opposed the proposal for a new residential energy code.

“Government and the private sector should work together to identify and implement strategies to reduce the cost of producing housing and provide more housing options at the most affordable price points and avoid taking actions that would increase the cost of housing,” wrote Paul Eger, vice president of governmental affairs at the Minnesota Realtors.

Timing is another concern for those opposed to a new residential energy code. During the Aug. 3 hearing, a building official pointed out that the enactment of the residential energy code late into the code cycle may cause confusion.

Special interest groups, product manufacturers push for code update Just as there is opposition to the adoption of a new energy code, there are several groups supporting the adoption of the new 2018 IECC in Minnesota without any

amendments.

In a letter to Judge Lipman, the American Chemistry Council (ACC) said the need for a new code is more urgent than it was in 2018. Many of the ACC firms carry products that would be required in the code update, such as continuous foam insulation on the exterior of all new homes.

A coalition of nine organizations including the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, architects and energy-efficiency advocacy groups stated that their interpretation of state law mandates a new residential energy code.

30-year range.

According to DLI, that time period may be substantially greater in reality for several reasons. First, there is a potential cost increase with the change from R-10 foundation insulation to R-15 foundation insulation. Additionally, most Minnesota builders already meet the 2018 IECC requirements for lighting and windows and doors. Finally, Minnesota’s window to wall ratio is 12%, not the 15% used in the analysis, nor did this study account for the high-efficiency ratings, HERs and air changes per hour that Minnesota builders already achieve.

Technical considerations Since Minnesota is on a six-year code review cycle, the hearing reviewed the US DOE’s analysis of the 2015 and 2018 editions of IECC, while the US DOE cost analysis is limited to model codes and does not account for any state-specific amendments or for other regulatory requirements impacting housing costs.

According to the DLI, the purported cost savings will be markedly lower in Minnesota than the US DOE suggests. The two areas of greatest cost savings in the latest model code, a decreased window U-factor and LED lighting, are already standard Minnesota.

Under the 2018 IECC, window U-factors would be reduced from .32 to .3. Most new homes currently use a window U-factor of between .27 and .29. Use of high-efficiency lighting would increase from 75% to 90%. Most new homes employ 100% high-efficiency lighting.

Legislative interest During the 2020 Legislative Session, Sen. Karin Housley (R-St. Mary’s Point) authored a bill that would have required no more than a five-year payback on any new residential energy code. The bill, part of the Senate Select Committee on Home Ownership Affordability and Availability’s legislation, was passed in the State Senate in May as part of a comprehensive housing package, but it was not acted upon in the State House.

The 2018 technical review The residential energy code conversations focused primarily on a debate over the need to adopt a new code.

“During the 2018 [technical] review, the burden of proof on the need for a new code truly fell on those pushing for a new code, and it does not appear they met that standard,” reported Erickson, who observed the TAG meetings on behalf of Housing First Minnesota.

When presenting to the Minnesota Construction Codes Advisory Council in 2019, DLI noted that the payback period, using traditional lending methods, would be in the

Next step: wait and see The public comment period was open until Aug. 24, followed by a rebuttal period through Aug. 31.

During the rebuttal period, parties could respond to the comments of others, but could not introduce any additional arguments.

Judge Lipman is expected to issue his recommendation this fall.

The DLI Commissioner would likely then issue a determination thereafter.

This information was up to date at the time of publishing. For the latest information on this topic, please visit HousingIndustryNews.org.

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COVID-19 preparedness plans required for construction

All critical sectors are now required to implement COVID-19 preparedness plans.

Under an executive order issued

by Gov. Tim Walz in June, all critical sectors are now required to implement COVID-19 preparedness plans including construction.

These COVID-19 plans require employees and subcontractors to perform a health screening before arriving at the job site and anyone displaying signs of COVID-19 must stay home. The requirements have also been amended to account for the statewide mask mandate that went into effect in July.

A coalition of construction groups including the Association of General Contractors and Housing First Minnesota was successful in getting the Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) to delay in enforcement, as well as making modifications to the requirements so that

the plans could actually be implemented effectively.

“Initially, these plans were to be implemented with very little warning, with the department-sponsored training occurring only after enforcement was scheduled to begin,” said David Siegel, executive director of Housing First Minnesota.

“We’re glad the Department was able to honor the industry’s request that the schedule be recalibrated to allow time for training and plan preparation.”

All workers and members of management must be trained and paid for said training. They must communicate required rules, protocols and practices. Workers must comply with the required provisions.

Businesses must enforce the required provisions.

If a worker is confirmed to have COVID-19, the protocol must include informing the business’s other workers who have been in close contact with the infected worker, without violating HIPAA. To assist construction businesses in finalizing their COVID-19 preparedness plans, the DLI recorded a webinar on July 17 to help answer businesses’ questions so they can be confident the plans they have developed address the risks of COVID-19 transmission at their worksites.

Contractors with questions about COVID-19 preparedness plan requirements should contact the Department of Labor of Industry – OSHA Workplace Safety Consultation at OSHA.consultation@state.mn.us or at 651-284-5060.

More health insurance options for the housing industry It’s been one year since an association health plan (AHP) was approved and offered for those involved in residential homebuilding throughout Housing First Minnesota. Eligible members of Housing First Minnesota are now able to sign up for comprehensive insurance benefits through Blue Cross® and Blue Shield® of Minnesota, the state’s largest health insurer.

Association health plans allow small businesses from within the same industry to obtain health care coverage as if they were a single large employer. This is the first association health plan to be approved by the state in several decades. Enrollees in the program are experiencing savings that average 10-12%. The plan

is administered by a consortium with assistance from North Risk Partners.

We asked Housing First Minnesota membership manager Heather Griffis to answer some common questions about this AHP and how it is providing better insurance options for the homebuilding industry.

Q: What size company does the AHP work for?

Griffis: Flexible plan designs are available for small businesses with 2 to 99 employees. The new association health plan gives a variety of coverage options, so employees have more choices. Additionally, association health plans simplify the very complex world of employee health insurance.

Q: What type of coverage does the plan offer?

Griffis: Eight plan options provide different levels of coverage so employees can choose the plan that best meets their needs. The employer has the flexibility of selecting appropriate plans and networks.

Employers can offer more than one plan and more than one network to employees.

Each plan includes coverage for doctor visits, preventive care, hospitalization, emergency care and outpatient care, as well as health and wellbeing benefits to help employees stay healthy. Plans can also be paired with a health reimbursement arrangement (HRA).

Q: What clinics and providers does the plan have access to?

Griffis: Access to more than 90% of hospitals and primary care providers nationwide.

Q: How do I know if my business qualifies for the plan?

Griffis: Companies that are engaged in the homebuilding process and have more than one employee qualify for the health plan, as long as they are members of Housing First Minnesota.

Q: Does the plan provide additional insurance options?

Griffis: While the association health plan is for health insurance specifically, the association also offers a complimentary endorsed program with dental, vision, life insurance and disability.

Q: When can I enroll?

Griffis: A company can enroll at any time, but many companies find it convenient to enroll at renewal time, which is generally Q4 each year.

Learn more about eligibility and enrollment options by visiting HousingFirstMN.org or by contacting your Blue Cross® and Blue Shield® of Minnesota Agent.

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HOUSING ON THE HILL

Multi-family housing in the COVID-19 era Q & A with the Minnesota Multi Housing Association President Cecil Smith Months into the COVID-19 global pandemic, housing leaders have gained a better understanding of the evolving market and what the future may look like. Housing Industry News interviewed Cecil Smith, president and CEO of the Minnesota Multi Housing Association (MHA), on Aug. 14, covering a range of subjects relating to multi-family housing. MHA is statewide nonprofit trade organization with nearly 2,000 members representing more than 400,000 housing units throughout Minnesota.

Q: As we work through the back half of 2020, what are the major issues impacting multi-family housing for owners and landlords?

Smith: First, let me say that the business relationship between property managers and renters has shown incredible resilience during this very difficult season. Renters have consistently and very broadly paid rent on time (90% by the 6th of each month). Managers with their team members have worked to keep buildings and units safe and livable during the COVID-19 crisis, whether people paid rent or not. I have been impressed by managers’ perseverance and Minnesota renters have outperformed national averages. As such, the rental housing market is generally stable in a rapidly weakening economy.

But without doubt, there are some rental properties that are experiencing financial stress as their residents have struggled with rent. MHA has worked closely with our members to maintain and advocate for the stability of the rental housing market.

This occurred even in the face of massive threats, such as widespread economic contraction, extraordinary government interventions, historic civil unrest in the Minneapolis metro area and the virus itself.

Those four factors specifically contribute to the concerns that weigh heavily on our industry. But without doubt, the remainder of 2020 and 2021 will be characterized by uncertainty. There is clearly pervasive uncertainty. How will permanent job losses and a recession ultimately affect vacancy and net income? When will Gov. Walz lift the eviction and lease termination moratorium? And how will we off-ramp from that to regular order in the market? What will happen after the election? How will municipalities and the state manage massive budget challenges, and will large property tax and income tax increases be used to fill the deficit? How will property insurance companies underwrite the

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Minneapolis and St. Paul markets following the widespread destruction and uncertainty around public safety? What will price discovery look like on transactions? How will lenders underwrite rent growth and especially lease-up velocity on new construction? Even more so, what will be the cost of debt capital as we go forward? If it is even realistic to consider, when will we get a widely available effective vaccine? So many questions, so much uncertainty as we look ahead.

Q: How have governments, at the federal, state and local levels, engaged the Multi Housing Association and the industry as we all work through COVID-19 and the economic challenges? Have some strategies been more successful than others?

Smith: The emergency management for this crisis has been centered on the actions and authority of state governors. The federal government made the decision to let each state manage the coronavirus response. Gov. Walz declared a peacetime emergency, which as we all know continues, and it grants him broad authority through the State Executive Council, even with regard to spending federal coronavirus relief funds. As such, we have been in regular conversation with his office throughout the crisis and our industry has already had three occasions to personally engage with Gov. Walz.

Stable housing is considered part of the public health response and this was especially true during the stay-at-home order. As part of that response, Gov. Walz issued an Executive Order that, but for a few extreme circumstances, prohibited eviction filings and lease terminations. He did at the same time urge renters to keep paying their rent.

MHA also engaged with State Legislators during the regular session and have continued to do so during each of the special sessions.

I have to say that MHA staff and Board leadership anticipated the stay-at-home order and in advance of that engaged in an unprecedented action to issue guidelines to the industry on March 22 recommending no late fees, no evictions for non-payment, and urging residents experiencing financial distress to contact managers to work on payment plans. Those MHA guidelines were quickly and broadly adopted but then those measures were superseded by the Executive Order.

MHA also argued strongly from the outset of this crisis that most of our

Apartments under construction near Woodbury Lakes shopping center.

frontline staff are essential workers.

The governor agreed. Our employees and vendors have put themselves in harm’s way, facing considerable uncertainty, to serve our residents.

Another extraordinary action that we took and continue each month is to conduct a rent collection survey. This data has proven to give important insight into the rental housing market and is sought after by media, state agencies, Legislators, and indeed the governor’s office. It should be emphasized that this data shows no “eviction wave” yet. That is a false narrative creating unnecessary panic and being utilized for political purposes. I have found that very frustrating when we all should be pulling together.

Q: How has multi-family development been impacted in 2020? Are you seeing any geographic shifts for development projects in the Minneapolis metro area?

Smith: Development has been impacted on several fronts. First, COVID-19 safety protocols have affected every construction site.

Safety plans had to be written and then followed. This added time and other costs to projects. Further, construction lending remains challenging with less liquidity, an elevated cost of capital, and greater equity requirements on borrowers.

Pre-COVID-19 we had already seen apartment development shift away to an extent from the urban core markets toward suburban markets where no new Class A product had been seen in some communities for decades. I fully anticipate that trend will continue through and after this crisis, even accelerating, given the uncertainty I mentioned earlier and additional regulatory pressures in the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. I also think post-COVID-19 it is entirely likely that some employers will look away from the urban core toward well-located and discounted vacant office space in suburban markets. As such, I think there will continue to be focus on first ring suburban infill opportunities and housing options around lifestyle centers following examples such as Arbor Lakes in Maple Grove, Woodbury Lakes, West End in St. Louis Park, Central Park Commons in Eagan, and certainly the ongoing transformation of Rosedale and its surroundings. Renting is now a lifestyle, especially at properties that are loaded with amenities that feel more like a resort than an apartment complex of the past.

Q: How has the industry dealt with COVID-19-era shifts in tenant preferences and behaviors such as increased work-from-home,

grocery and goods delivery, etc.?

Smith: Fortunately for the apartment industry preCOVID-19, the growth of package delivery had been a serious challenge that both managers and package delivery services had long been engaged in solving with a variety of solutions. All new multifamily product coming to market has a package delivery solution, in many cases now including temporary refrigerated storage. Existing properties were being forced to consider retrofitted solutions because so much site staff time was being consumed by package management. Clearly, this challenge has gone to a new level in

Cecil Smith President and CEO of the Minnesota Multi Housing Association

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CONTINUED FROM PAGE 6

this era, both in terms of volume and maintaining COVID-19 cleaning protocols. But managers have adapted, and deliveries are happening. I expect that much of the increased adoption of delivered goods will continue post-COVID-19.

A disappointment for many residents during the stay-at-home order and then in the phased reopening had been the closure of many shared amenities such as pools and gyms. Those have reopened following Health Department guidance and by implementing appropriate protocols. This has become a shared frustration both on renters and managers, but people are pulling together and accepting the compromises.

With so many people working from home or unemployed, the greatest challenge has been managing through the heightened stress and isolation. Property managers already dealt with mental health issues among residents pre-COVID-19 but we have seen more widespread challenges in this season. Adding the trauma around George Floyd’s killing to general COVID-19 stressors has resulted in more resident conflict and management challenges. The Executive Order severely constraining evictions and lease terminations has meant an inability to address disruptive, abusive and other highly anti-social behaviors.

Only those residents seriously endangering others or causing significant property damage can be removed. This has caused even more stress and we have seen many cases where renters have been forced to leave because of their neighbors’ terrible behaviors.

Q: What else should readers be thinking about

in terms of multi-family housing as we move forward?

Smith: A significant factor in Minnesota’s stable housing market has been owners and managers that live in the same communities as their residents.

Unlike coastal markets, Minnesota has many local owners who care about where they live, the communities they serve, and getting through this crisis together. Housing is critical infrastructure for long-term prosperity and local ownership of that infrastructure is an important factor in the longterm reinvestment and stability of that vital resource. Minnesota also needs so many more housing and local owners to understand that problem and want to support adding to the supply.

That is not advantageous in the short term, but local owners generally hold their investments for the long term. Housing and jobs go together, and prosperity follows both at the local level and for the state. Therefore, we need more housing all across Minnesota, and we will need systems to change if we are going to produce enough of the right housing that a vibrant growing economy demands. It has to be produced at all price points, with minimal subsidy even at the most affordable levels, quickly to meet real-time demand, and be of the highest quality standards and energy efficiency so that it endures as the critical infrastructure necessary for future success. There is more to say about how to do that but the supply of affordable housing is one of the major challenges facing our state and MHA intends to help lead on those solutions.

With a 34-32 vote, the Senate rejected the confirmation of Department of Labor and Industry Commissioner Nancy Leppink, removing her from the position.

Legislature returns for third special session, votes not to confirm DLI Commissioner Gov. Tim Walz extended his pandemic-related emergency powers on Aug. 11, constitutionally requiring the legislature to return to St. Paul on Aug. 12. The GOP-controlled Senate voted against this extension, while the DFL-controlled House voted to reaffirm the emergency powers, effectively keeping

them in place.

The special session only lasted a few hours, with both bodies passing more than $30 million in grant assistance for disability service providers.

Additionally, the Senate brought forward a confirmation vote from Walz’s appointee at the Department of Labor and Industry (DLI). With

a 34-32 vote, the Senate rejected the confirmation of DLI Commissioner Nancy Leppink. Subsequently, Walz appointed Roslyn Robertson as the temporary commissioner of DLI. The legislature will return in September if Walz elects to further extend his emergency powers.

Minnesota state government expecting significant shortfall

A $4.7 billion shortfall is expected for the 2023 biennium.

Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) reported a $58 million shortfall for the 2020 fiscal year after tax revenue came up short of projections following the July tax deadline.

Additionally, MMB released a forecast for the 2022-23 biennium that projects a $4.7 billion shortfall due to lower revenue and higher expenditures.

“Today’s revenue update gives

us more information about the budget problems we need to solve during this current biennium and the next,” MMB Commissioner Myron Frans said in a statement.

“The planning estimates for 202223 will help decision-makers begin the budget planning process as we continue to respond to the pandemic.”

MMB will release its next budget forecast in early December.

Legislative hearing places spotlight on the Met Council’s restrictive land policy In one of its few annual gatherings, the Legislative Commission on Metropolitan Government held an August hearing to discuss the Metropolitan Council’s role in housing and homelessness.

Prior to the discussion, Housing First Minnesota submitted comments to the Commission stating: The Metropolitan Council’s land use policies, and local government’s implementation of these policies, are two of the most consequential roadblocks creating barriers to homeownership in the Twin Cities, Minnesota’s largest housing market. The Metropolitan Urban Service Area (MUSA) line serves as the unofficial land boundary for growth in the Twin Cities region. Analysis of land availability and costs show that the MUSA placement fails to adequately supply buildable land, which causes price surges in land within the growth boundary.

The comments also included a solution of increasing

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the land supply greater than the current 100% of projected growth, instead increasing to 200-300% as the Metropolitan Council does for other engineered systems such as water, sewer and wastewater.

Rep. Jerry Hertaus of Greenfield largely concurred with this assessment stating, “In the housing industry and single-family housing, generally the cost of a home, about 25-35% is the cost of the land. The Met Council’s failings in the past many decades is trying to maintain a balance if you will, what they perceive to be 100% of the housing stock or housing land need has a little bit of a flawed assessment. What it has failed to do is to recognize that land identified as buildable land.”

The legislature is expected to have additional discussions surrounding land policy next legislative session as legislators work to address housing policy reform.

Additional discussions surrounding land policy are expected next legislative session.

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

| 7

MARKET REPORT

Housing market report

State of Minnesota

Minnesota housing market looks to recovery after COVID-19

Moorhead

55

3,016

18

Through June 2020

SOURCE: CITY OF MOORHEAD

The homebuilding industry in Minnesota has slowly begun to recover after COVID-19-related shutdowns.

The months of May and June indicated a drop in permit activity illustrating the lingering ripple effects of the virus. According to the U.S Census, the statewide number for single-family permits thus far in 2020 amounted to 6,417 new single-family units. This is a 5% decrease from June 2019. Statewide and metro home prices continue to increase. Home prices in the Twin Cities and Minnesota have increased 3.4% and 5.2%, respectively. Home inventory remains tight for first-time buyers and downsizers.

Duluth

Year-to-Date Single-Family Construction SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

St. Cloud

3

through Jan. 20, 2020

Twin Cities

SOURCE: CITY OF ST. CLOUD

2,247

St. Cloud-area data not reported to U.S. Census

Mankato

9

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

Rochester

26

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS. HOUSING FIRST MINNESOTA COLLECTED THE ABOVE PERMIT INFORMATION FROM AVAILABLE PUBLIC RESOURCES.

JUN. 2020

JUN. 2020

$305,000

$273,000

Minnesota Construction Employment Past 5 Months SOURCE: DEED

+5.2%

JUN. 2019

+3.4%

$290,000

Y-Y Change

JUN. 2019

$263,900

13,548

FEB. 2020

Y-Y Change

2019

2019

$290,000

$263,900

MAR. 2020

12,641

APR. 2020

12,838 13,622

MAY 2020

14,539

JUN. 2020

Twin Cities Median Sales Price

Minnesota Median Sales Price

SOURCE: MINNEAPOLIS REALTORS

SOURCE: MINNESOTA REALTORS

Twin Cities Construction Employment Past 5 Months SOURCE: DEED

United States

73

FEB. 2020

9,049

MAR. 2020

9,013

APR. 2020

9,017

MAY 2020

JUN. 2020

9,584 10,331

Employment Update West - 72

South - 73

Midwest - 75

Northeast - 75

Regional Remodeling Market Indices, 2020 Q2 SOURCE: NAHB

The Overall Remodeling Market Index is calculated by averaging the Current Marketing Index and the Future Market Indicators Index. Any number over 50 indicates that more remodelers view remodeling market conditions as higher than the previous quarter. Results are seasonally adjusted.

8|

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

The job numbers in Minnesota saw minor improvements in June as the state continued to reopen its economy following the COVID-19 shutdowns. Minnesota added 84,700 payroll jobs in the month of June, according the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). However, year-over-year, the state was down 273,776 jobs since June 2019. The state’s unemployment rate fell to 8.6%, compared to 9.9% in May. Construction, as an industry, recorded a 6% employment loss since May 2019. This marks a job loss of 8,414 year-over-year.

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Mortgage rates: How low can they go?

Ellie Mae Millennial Tracker shows a 45% millennial purchase share in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region.

Millennial surge drives housing market Millennial purchasing is on the rise, according to recent data released by Ellie Mae’s Millennial Tracker. They report that the percentage of all loans to millennial buyers closed during the month of June grew for the second straight month, reaching 56%, up 9 percentage points from May. This marks the highest purchase share since March 2020.

“Millennials represent the single biggest opportunity in the housing market today,” Ellie Mae Chief Operating Officer Joe Tyrrell said in a press release. “Per U.S. Census data, there will be over 4 million millennials reaching the age of 29-30, each year for the next several years. That is important because our data shows that is the average age when millennials enter the homebuying market.”

In Minneapolis-St. Paul region, Ellie Mae Millennial Tracker shows a 45% millennial purchase share and an average loan of just under $275,000.

The region’s inventory and affordability measures are struggling compared to Midwestern peers’ regions, potentially creating affordability and access challenges as these buyers continue to enter the market. According to Ellie Mae projections, the millennial surge is expected to remain for some time.

“We expect that their entry into the market, as they reach prime homebuying age, will fuel purchase transactions in 2021, 2022 and 2023,” Tyrrell added.

The pandemic-induced uncertainty in the economy has caused mortgage rates to hit new lows, but how much more can they drop? Rates dipped below 3% this summer and sit a full percentage point lower than they were this time last year.

“The resilience of the housing market continues as mortgage rates hit another all-time low, giving potential buyers more purchasing power and strengthening demand,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “We expect rates to stay low and continue to propel the purchase market forward.”

The most recent rate drop in early August was the eighth time this year that rates hit a new record low.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), low rates haven’t just helped boost homes sales, they have refinance activity surging as well.

“Refi activity responded to these lower rates, with the refi share reaching almost 66% of all applications, its highest level since May. And the refi index jumped 9%, reaching its highest level since April, as both conventional and government applications for refinances increased," said Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

What are the odds that rates could dip even lower than they already are? It all depends on the economic recovery from the pandemic. If the economy shuts down again and unemployment ticks back up, experts believe rates could go lower than 2.25%.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

| 9

MARKET REPORT

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Tuesday, November 10, 2020 8:45 a.m.–12:00 p.m.

DISCOVER THE LATEST IN GREEN BUILDING

New single-family home sales up 19% in July.

Twin Cities pending homes sales hit high not seen since 2003 Pent-up demand from a spring that was put on pause by COVID-19 could be behind a record July for home sales. According to the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® (MAR) and the Saint Paul Area Association of REALTORS® (SPAAR), The number of signed purchase agreements rose 7.5% in June and another 10.3% in July, both compared to last July. At 6,866, July 2020 saw the highest pending sales figure since at least 2003, and likely longer.

New construction especially had a great month with pending sales of new single-family homes up 19% over this time last year.

Existing single-family homes sales were up 4% over July of last year.

While sales are up, inventory remains at historic lows causing prices to continue their climb. The median sales price in the Twin Cities jumped 10.4% to $312,500.

The median sales price for new single-family homes in the metro increased 1% to $426,438.

The Twin Cities metro area had a 1.9-month supply of homes for sale in July, a far cry from the 5-month supply needed for a balanced market. While the drop in supply during a global pandemic may be expected, the persistent demand from homebuyers has been surprising for many.

“July was an undeniably strong month, particularly in light of some of the headwinds,” according to Linda Rogers, president

SESSION TOPICS

of MAR. “Most areas saw sales growth and other improvements, including both large core cities, where buyers continued to outbid each other.”

MAR and SPAAR also noted that some buyers are opting for newer, farther-out suburban subdivisions that are car-dependent and still growing but come with the latest technology and more space for telecommuting. They also note that there has been an uptick in condo listings which they believe can be attributed more to health concerns and temporary closure of businesses and limited activities, but state that more time is needed to evaluate this.

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$49 per person JULY 2020 BY THE NUMBERS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO SELLERS LISTED 7,961 PROPERTIES

.08%

FROM LAST JULY

BUYERS SIGNED 6,866 PURCHASE AGREEMENTS

10.3%

6,940 CLOSED SALES, UP 3.4%

10 |

HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

INVENTORY LEVELS FELL

28%

TO 9,348 UNITS

MONTHS’ SUPPLY OF INVENTORY WAS DOWN

29.6%

TO 1.9 MONTHS (5-6 MONTHS IS BALANCED)

MEDIAN SALES PRICE ROSE

10.4%

TO $312,500

CUMULATIVE DAYS ON MARKET INCREASED

7.9%

TO 41 DAYS, ON AVERAGE

(MEDIAN OF 17, DOWN 5.6%)

CHANGES IN SALES ACTIVITY VARIED BY MARKET SEGMENT SINGLE-FAMILY SALES

FORECLOSURE SALES

CONDO SALES

SHORT SALES

7.3%

10.8%

TOWNHOME SALES

6.7%

2.6

TRADITIONAL SALES

NEW CONSTRUCTION

4.6%

MNGREENPATH.ORG/GP-CONFERENCE

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PREVIOUSLY OWNED SALES

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COVID-19 continues to raise concerns over rent and mortgage payments When government-imposed economic shutdowns hit earlier this spring, concerns surrounding rent and mortgage forbearance became a focus of federal and state funding discussions. Unemployment hit record highs after various sectors of the economy felt the pinch. Minnesota hit a 9.9% unemployment rate in May. As millions of Americans struggle to find work in the post-COVID-19 shutdown economy, there is a growing concern that monthly rent and mortgage payments will go unpaid.

Recent research from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University reported that nearly half of all renter households were struggling with monthly payments preCOVID-19. With the added financial strain, many are concerned there will be a sudden rush of evictions and foreclosures nationwide.

The CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act was enacted at the federal level in March. This legislation established an eviction freeze for renters living in federally supported housing,

including buildings under Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This effected about 12.3 million renters in the United States. Many states also followed this legislation and established their own versions to support their residents.

The federal eviction moratorium expired on July 25. According to the U.S Census Bureau, one in five renters nationwide either did not pay their rent or delayed their payment in June.

Minnesota responded to this issue as the CARES Act was set to expire.

Gov. Tim Walz announced $100 million in funding for rental and mortgage assistance. This resource will also provide financial support after federal unemployment payments ended in late summer.

Walz remarked that access to housing was “under threat” due to the coronavirus pandemic and that previous efforts have been backtracked.

“That makes it very, very difficult for people to have any stability, that makes it very, very difficult for children to learn, if they don’t have a home,” Walz said.

Builder confidence now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series.

Builders optimistic as housing leads the economic recovery When COVID-19 first prompted massive economic shutdowns, many grew concerned about where it would leave a housing pipeline that was still recovering from the last economic downturn more than a decade ago.

But as inventory ticked even lower on the existing side of the housing market, the demand for new homes has increased helping housing lead the economic recovery from the pandemic. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series, matching the record that was set in December 1998.

“The demand for new single-family homes continues to be strong, as low interest rates and a focus on the importance of housing has stoked buyer traffic to all-time highs as measured on the HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke.

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 35 years, the NAHB’s Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.”

“Housing has clearly been a bright spot during the pandemic

and the sharp rebound in builder confidence over the summer has led NAHB to upgrade its forecast for single-family starts, which are now projected to show only a slight decline for 2020,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

“Single-family construction is benefiting from low interest rates and a noticeable suburban shift in housing demand to suburbs, exurbs and rural markets as renters and buyers seek out more affordable, lower density markets.”

All the HMI indices posted gains in August. The HMI gauging current sales conditions rose six points to 84, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 78 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers posted an eightpoint gain to reach its highest level ever at 65.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

| 11

INDUSTRY IN ACTION

Does more time at home make more space appealing?

There are many signs pointing to consumers renewing their focus on their space. Since the pandemic started, home improvement sales have skyrocketed, furniture and home goods spending has surged, and those that can’t improve their space are looking to find new space.

It seems the extra time staying at home has many not just looking for new space, but more space.

The National Association of Home Builder’s (NAHB) chief economist, Robert Dietz, is forecasting a pivot from the downward trend in home sizes to larger homes over the next two years.

“Going forward we expect a different post-recession pattern,” wrote Dietz. “Home size is expected to level off and then increase, given a shift in consumer preferences for more space due to the increased use and roles of homes (for work, for study) in the

post-COVID-19 environment.”

According to second quarter 2020 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area ticked down to 2,264 square feet. On a less volatile one-year moving average, the tentative beginning of a leveling off of new single-family home size can be seen.

Dietz writes that typically new home size decreases prior to and during a recession as homebuyers tighten budgets, and then sizes increase as high-end homebuyers, who face fewer credit constraints, return to the housing market in relatively greater proportions. This pattern was exacerbated during recent years due to market weakness among first-time homebuyers and supply-side constraints in the building market.

SOURCE: NAHB

“Going forward we expect a different post-recession pattern. Home size is expected to level off and then increase, given a shift in consumer preferences for more space due to the increased use and roles of homes (for work, for study) in the post-COVID-19 environment.”

Robert Dietz, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NAHB

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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The green is the new networking hot spot In a year when almost all networking events have been canceled due to COVID-19, golf has emerged as a way to safely socially distance while catching up with industry peers.

Several industry golf events have hit it off this summer whether it was to raise money for a good cause or simply to catch up with business partners and friends.

Pulte held its annual golf tournament in July to raise money once again for the Housing First Minnesota Foundation. Nearly $20,000 was raised during this year’s golf event. The money will be used to help the Foundation build and remodel housing for homeless veterans and others in need.

Housing First Minnesota held its annual golf tournament on Aug. 6. While the event had to cut the

number of golfers in half, there were still plenty of opportunities for housing industry members to reconnect.

The Builders Group held its annual Education Foundation Golf Outing on Aug. 20 to help provide grants, scholarships and apprenticeships to young people interested in the construction trades.

Project Build Minnesota kicked off its first annual golf tournament on Aug. 25 to help raise funds for its mission to advance and promote careers in the construction industry.

There are more opportunities to hit the course with the housing industry while socially distancing. The Housing First Minnesota Foundation is holding its annual golf tournament on Sept. 15 at Legends Golf Club. More information at housingfirstmnfoundation.org.

Housing industry members reconnect at the Housing First Minnesota Golf Open.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

| 13

INDUSTRY GIVES BACK

Health has never been more front of mind.

This marks the fourth house built for homeless veterans by the Housing First Minnesota Foundation, Lennar and MACV.

North St. Paul celebrates Housing for Heroes project North St. Paul Veterans Park welcomed the public to a free event on Aug. 15 to celebrate the park’s 5-year anniversary. As part of the event organized by the city of North St. Paul, the Housing First Minnesota Foundation and Minnesota Assistance Council for Veterans (MACV) hosted tours of the Housing for Heroes North St. Paul project, which is in its final stages of construction.

“The need for these houses is as great as its ever been. Currently there are 250 veterans on the

homeless registry,” said Jon Lovald, chief operations officer at MACV. The home, constructed by build partner Lennar, is located across the street from Veterans Park. The four-bedroom home will provide shelter for veterans and their families who need transitional housing assistance. This marks the fourth house built in partnership with the Housing First Minnesota Foundation, MACV and Lennar for homeless veterans.

Donnie Brown, manager of the Housing First Minnesota

Foundation, spoke on the impact this house will have for veterans both now and in the future.

“We have a group of people who are determined to make sure that housing is available for homeless veterans. This house will be standing for years to come, and it will serve multiple people over multiple years,” Brown said. “And our work doesn’t stop here. We plan to break ground on another home in partnership with MACV and Lennar in just a few weeks.”

“We have a group of people who are determined to make sure that housing is available for homeless veterans. This house will be standing for years to come, and it will serve multiple people over multiple years.”

Donnie Brown, MANAGER, HOUSING FIRST MINNESOTA FOUNDATION

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HOUSING INDUSTRY NEWS

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IN THE DIRT

A quick recap of housing news and development updates

SOURCE: PULTE GROUP

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

SOURCE: MINNESOTA HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY

SOURCE: ST. PAUL FIRE DEPARTMENT

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Pulte to build row homes in St. Paul

Minnesota awarded public housing funding from HUD

State sets aside funding for COVID-19 housing assistance

Developer plans to rebuild in St. Paul

Pulte Homes of Minnesota has announced plans to build 320 row homes as part of the redevelopment of the former Ford Motor plant site in the Highland Park neighborhood of St. Paul. Home prices will start at just under $400,000.

Minnesota has been awarded $5.6 million to public housing from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to help keep residents housed.

According to a release, HUD Secretary Ben Carson announced $472 million nationally in CARES Act funding to help low-income families during the coronavirus pandemic. $5.6 million will be awarded to 60 Minnesota public housing authorities.

The state of Minnesota has earmarked $100 million in housing assistance from the federal coronavirus relief bill. The money will be used to help prevent evictions and support housing stability for those impacted by COVID-19.

A new construction development of housing and a hotel near the Xcel Energy Center in downtown St. Paul was largely destroyed in a fire early in the morning on Aug. 4. The investigation has ruled that it was arson. Kaeding Development Group plans to rebuild.

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5/14/20 10:41 AM

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