2018 Economic Outlook

Page 1

March 15, 2018

2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FORUM

AGRICULTURE ENERGY HEALTH CARE STATE REVENUE REAL ESTATE RETAIL


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Every spring as the snow melts and construction swings into season, our business community asks one question; how is the economy going to look this year? Nobody has a crystal ball that can answer that question definitively, but the Chamber’s Economic Outlook Forum gets us as close as we can. First, the Forum itself brings together our community’s leaders for a discussion about those factors that will impact our economy in the coming year. That conversation is coupled with information gathered from our online survey to give us a clear picture of how our members view the year ahead. While this combination of in-person discussion and information gathering won’t be able to completely tell us what to expect in the year ahead, what it does do is bring our community together. It brings us together to share our concerns, share our questions and share our strategies for addressing them both. And in doing so, we put Bismarck-Mandan in the best position possible to address whatever challenges lie ahead in 2018. That’s the real value of the Economic Outlook Forum and that’s why we’re so pleased to bring it to you once again this year.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

ENERGY Ron Ness, President, ND Petroleum Council

6

AGRICULTURE Doug Goehring, North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner

7

STATE REVENUE Ryan Rauschenberger, North Dakota Tax Commissioner

8

REAL ESTATE Scott Ritter, Broker/Partner, Aspen Group LLP

10

HEALTH CARE Dr. Craig Lambrecht CEO, Sanford Health

11

RETAIL Jennifer Wilson General Manager, Kirkwood Mall

12

SURVEY RESULTS

Brian Ritter, President Bismarck-Mandan Chamber of Commerce facebook.com/bismanchamber twitter.com/bismanchamber @bismanchamber

ECONOMIC Outlook Forum Presented by:

Gold Sponsors:

Production Sponsor:

INTRODUCTION } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } 3


ENERGY

2018 SHAPING UP

TO BE THE YEAR OF ND BY: Ron Ness, ND Petroleum Council Carson Wentz’s Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl. Cara Mund is owning her role as Miss America. Monique and Jocelyne Lamoureux took down the Canadian hockey dynasty to win Olympic Gold. These four outstanding North Dakotans are tremendous sources of pride and optimism for our state, and their outstanding achievements have made one thing clear: 2018 is shaping up to be the Year of North Dakota. On the economic side, there are many other – though perhaps not as adrenaline-inducing – reasons to be proud of our state. Despite a few tenuous years for our top industries, North Dakota continues to be a dominant and growing force in the nation. The U.S. News & World Report still ranks North Dakota first in economic growth, first in growth of our young population, second in overall economic strength and seventh in economic opportunity. In 2017, our petroleum industry stared down world markets and is emerging stronger and better poised to succeed in 2018. After nearly a decade of operating at a discount, North Dakota now finds itself on an equal economic footing with other shale plays and basins around the country. The completion and operation of the Dakota Access Pipeline have helped North Dakota fetch a higher price per barrel, which has meant an additional $6 million per month for state revenues and far more for royalty owners. Any additional infrastructure that is built will only further bolster North Dakota’s competitive edge. Efficiency and innovation have also been major hallmarks of the past few years as the industry has figured out how to do more with less in the downturn. Today, our industry is leaner and more technologically advanced than ever before.

4 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } ENERGY

Today, each drilling rig can do twice the work of rigs of the past, helping stabilize production while reducing impacts. The Bakken was once one of the most expensive plays, but thanks to the ingenuity of our companies, North Dakota now ranks first in rig economics as technology has boosted production per rig. The industry is not without its challenges. We still require more infrastructure, especially to capture more natural gas. The depressed market inhibited investment in gas processing and transmission assets. Industry has announced more than 900 million cubic feet per day of new or expanded processing capacity that will help accommodate production in the short-term, but the industry will need to spend $3 to $5 billion or more to meet the state’s more stringent gas capture targets. This, however, also provides opportunity for more great-paying jobs and other sectors to provide the products and services that will be needed to keep the Bakken a step ahead. All of this proves, however, that the industry is not just alive in our state, but that it’s also doing very well. Even in the downturn, oil and gas remained a top contributor to North Dakota’s economy, accounting for more than 58 percent of its exports. Perhaps the most remarkable thing is that we are still only tapping less than 15 percent of its true potential, and both the industry and researchers are innovating to harness as much of this important resource as possible. In terms of employment, 2014 marked a turning point when the permanent production jobs overtook the more temporary, transient positions. Going forward, production jobs will account for a majority of energy jobs, meaning there will be more people and families calling North Dakota home. In fact, two out of every three people who moved to North Dakota since 2010 have been calling the western side of the state home.

Communities have used this slowdown as an opportunity to catch up to the frenzied activity of the past. New businesses and restaurants have continued to flourish and enhance the quality of life in these towns, but as activity increases, it’s becoming clear there is more to do. Once again communities may see a need for more single-family housing and additional amenities, and this presents a tremendous opportunity for nearly every sector of North Dakota’s economy. Many speculators have talked about the Bakken as though it’s a play of the past, but that is far from the truth. The Bakken continued to stay a step ahead in the downturn through innovation and has emerged as strong as ever. The Bakken is Now. This will be a major theme at our Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in May. The conference will once again be held in Bismarck and will feature many of the industry’s foremost leaders, including more than seven CEOs or presidents and several other executives. More than 40 speakers will present on topics ranging from the technical updates operators need to better recover our resources and drive solutions to panels on markets and investing that will help businesses and innovators make smart decisions as activity ramps up. The WBPC has become an international business development event offering the latest information and trends that are valuable to everyone, from the multi-national corporations to our local Main Street businesses and from federal government leaders to those leading our local governments. We hope you will join us this May to learn more about how the Bakken can help you and your business in 2018 and continue to make this the Year of North Dakota.


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AGRICULTURE

STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA AG BY: Doug Goehring, North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Agriculture plays a major role in the lives of all North Dakotans. One of our state’s largest industries, agriculture represents and encompasses much of our rich heritage and culture. In fact, almost 25 percent of our workforce is employed by agriculture, and 90 percent of our land is used to support it. 2017 was a difficult year for our farmers and ranchers due to drought and continued low commodity prices. Crop production was down for most crops in 2017, with the exception of potatoes, sugar beets and dry edible beans. Without adequate and timely rainfall, hay shortages were common across the state, leading some producers to cut deeper into their herds and others to purchase and transport hay from far distances. The economic impact didn’t just affect farmers and ranchers. It extended to Main Street as well in the form of lower revenue and lost jobs. The ripple effect has not been fully realized. Despite all of this, North Dakota agriculture continues to provide food, feed, fiber and fuel for families locally and around the world. Our state has been blessed with abundant resources and a varied landscape that enables our farmers and ranchers to produce over 50 different commodities. We are the nation’s No. 1 producer of spring wheat, durum wheat, sunflowers, dry edible peas, canola, flaxseed, pinto beans, navy beans and honey.

6 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } AGRICULTURE

There are 1.82 million head of cattle and calves in the state, 16,000 head of dairy cows, 146,000 hogs, 66,000 sheep and lambs, and approximately 616,770 honey bee colonies. We rank sixth in the U.S. in total crop market value, but 34th in total livestock market value. This means our livestock industry has room to grow. The newly formed North Dakota Livestock Alliance is working to expand the livestock sector in North Dakota using crops grown here as feed. There are many facilities in the state that add value to our raw commodities, including corn, dairy, dry beans, barley, meat, wheat, potatoes, pulse crops, sugar and more. A new soybean plant will soon be added to that list. The planned facility in Spiritwood, N.D. will produce soy oil that can be used for biodiesel and soy meal for livestock feed. Our farmers are diversifying with emerging crops such as carinata and industrial hemp. The industrial hemp program is heading into its third year and has grown from 70 acres planted the first year to more than 3,000 acres in 2017. Proposals are still being reviewed for 2018 but the acreage continues to grow, as do the available processors.

With more than 95 percent of the world’s population existing outside of U.S. borders, 80 percent of the buying power outside of our borders and 92 percent of middle-class growth expected outside of our borders in the next three decades, trade remains important to North Dakota agriculture. We currently export to 84 countries around the world. Total ag exports were $4.6 billion in tracked sales in 2016, and this doesn’t account for commodities is marketed in bulk. As farmers and ranchers continue to deal with uncertain and overreaching regulations, the North Dakota Department of Agriculture will continue to monitor these issues and work to ensure a pragmatic and common-sense approach is used to support a healthy economic, environmental and social climate for our state’s farmers and ranchers.


STATE REVENUE

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FOR THE FUTURE BY: Ryan Rauschenberger, ND Tax Commissioner The North Dakota economy is hard to predict. National experts involved in the state revenue forecast indicate North Dakota’s economy is among the hardest to predict of any state in the nation. Why? We are a small economy heavily reliant on volatile commodity prices that drive the profitability of our two largest economic sectors – oil and agriculture. So, any look to the future has to be tempered with a certain degree of caution. North Dakota is now the second largest oil producing state. We are such a significant player in the world market that our production levels influence global market prices. However, that does little to offset the inherent volatility in the global oil market. The agricultural economy is not only dependent upon global forces of supply and demand, but also on local weather conditions. Having just completed one of the driest growing seasons in years for much of the state, moisture levels for the upcoming season are still a concern in many areas. The many economic drivers over which there is little control or inherent uncertainty should make anyone reluctant to make bold statements about North Dakota’s economic outlook. However, there are many reasons to be positive about the future.

• Oil Prices – North Dakota crude oil was priced at over $90 per barrel during the summer of 2014. It then began a rapid decline, eventually dropping to around $20 per barrel in February 2016. In recent months, prices have been on a steady climb. North Dakota crude averaged nearly $55 per barrel in December 2017. Prices are again high enough to encourage drilling and fracturing operations. Since 2014, drilling operations have become more efficient. Inflated prices for labor and other inputs have declined significantly, lowering operating costs and allowing producers to be profitable at much lower oil prices. • Oil Production – In December 2014, North Dakota oil production reached an all-time high of just over 1.2 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD). Despite the significant price decline since 2014, oil production only declined to around 940,000 BOPD in December 2016. Throughout 2017, production steadily climbed and in recent months has returned to near record levels. • Employment – North Dakota has a strong labor market. December unemployment in North Dakota was only 2.6 percent, one of the lowest rates in the nation and well below the national average of 4.1 percent. In January 2018, Job Service ND reported there are currently over 11,300 open and available jobs posted online within North Dakota.

• State Revenue Collections – State revenue collections are closely tracking with the current forecast. The forecast was reviewed in October, and forecasters saw little reason to modify the original legislative estimates. Through January, state general fund revenue collections were about 2 percent, or $28 million, over forecast. • Federal Tax Reform – Whatever your thoughts on federal tax reform, it is clear it will benefit most North Dakota taxpayers. Approximately 85 percent of North Dakotan’s benefit from the near doubling of the standard deduction. The doubling of the federal child tax credit more than offsets the elimination of personal exemptions for many taxpayers. Other features, like the 20 percent deduction for pass-through business income, will benefit the 25 percent of North Dakota individual income taxpayers who include some form of business income on their return. Although there will always be risks as we look to the future, there are many factors that justify a very positive outlook for North Dakota for 2018 and the years to come.

STATE REVENUE } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } 7


REAL ESTATE

COMMERCIAL

REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK BY: Scott Ritter, Aspen Group LLP While we’ve seen the down turn in the Bismarck/ Mandan commercial real estate level off in the last year there is plenty to be excited about as you travel across the area. We continually see new ventures and ample opportunity for entrepreneurs and businesses of all sizes to find space and make their mark in the community. Some indicators that the market is bouncing back include rising oil prices, the health of the stock market (minus a few dips in early February) and lower vacancy in certain commercial real estate markets. There is still some uncertainty in the overall commodity market, but it’s encouraging to see some sectors rebounding. Small retail and startups continue to be the theme across the market. Health/Wellness continues to absorb space in the market. Whether you want a new workout approach or improved eating habits, there are new businesses in Bismarck and Mandan to fill those needs. Anne Mahlum, a Bismarck native, brought Solidcore Fitness to the Bismarck/Mandan market. Solidcore offers a unique way to workout, with a high intensity routine in a boutique setting, where there are only so many spaces per class. If you are looking for healthier meal options, Power Plate Meals expanded from Fargo to their first Bismarck location. Located next to ACE Hardware, just off Hwy 83 and 43rd Ave in North Bismarck, they offer fresh, natural, convenient food options that are microwave ready.

8 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } REAL ESTATE

Downtown Bismarck continually has new ventures to offer each year. The Starving Rooster expanded from Minot and opened on Main Street in 2017 for a family-friendly eating experience. The Rejuvenation Place: Med Spa brought a brand-new look to the old Cowan Building in the heart of Downtown offering skin and body rejuvenation and full-service cosmetology services. Halberstadt’s is bringing more options for professional menswear to Main Street, opening this spring at 508 E Main in the Gulch Block building. North Bismarck will continue to take shape as Light of Christ Catholic Schools has broken ground on 57th Ave between Washington Street and Highway 83. In 2018, Missouri Slope Lutheran Care Center will also break ground on the North Bismarck site of the old Good Shepherd Lutheran Church. Cashwise has announced future plans to build a second location north of 43rd Avenue in North Bismarck.

We will also see a few large-scale construction projects come to a close as First International Bank puts the finishing touches on their brandnew location. This six-story superstructure will house their bank and additional office space. The same goes for First Western Bank in Downtown Bismarck, the steel is coming out of the ground and things are moving full steam ahead. Also in North Bismarck on 43rd Avenue, the Schilling family is in the process of completing a new building which will include office and retail lease space with numerous amenities like underground parking. In conclusion, while the 2018 Bismarck-Mandan commercial real estate market continues to seek a new “normal”, there is plenty to be excited about as the market continues to rebound with consistent, sustainable growth.


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HEALTH CARE

REINVENTING HEALTHCARE DELIVERY & WORKFORCE STRATEGIES BY: Dr. Craig Lambrecht, Sanford Health Healthcare has traditionally and continues to be a driving force in both local and national economies. While the future of our nation’s healthcare laws are debated, the need for healthcare services continues to grow at an unprecedented rate. Long-range drivers of demand for services, such as the aging of the U.S. population and advances in medical technology, will continue to expand the industry, even in the current era of changing healthcare policy. For a point of reference, we know people older than 65, on average, have three times more hospital days than those younger than 65. Today’s 65-plus population is about 50 million and will grow to 72 million by 2030, and to nearly 90 million by 2050, according to the Census Bureau. WORKFORCE Already the largest employer in the region, healthcare leaders are tasked with the challenge of recruiting enough team members to meet the growing demand, bringing good jobs--jobs that provide sustainable living wages and benefits--to Bismarck-Mandan and surrounding communities. With the need for nurses and doctors growing as an urgent issue nationwide, North Dakota is no exception. Sanford Health’s “grow our own” approach means we’re developing new residency programs to train more doctors and investing in local college nursing programs to increase the number of nurses graduating in the coming years. Sanford also continues to create a positive culture for both patients and employees as evidenced by Sanford Bismarck’s recent Magnet Recognition Award, the highest recognition for nursing excellence. Sanford Bismarck is the first and only health care organization in North Dakota to earn its third Magnet designation and is the only \Magnet health care organization in North Dakota.

10 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } HEALTH CARE

REINVENTING THE DELIVERY OF CARE Strained healthcare budgets and reimbursement rates that have lagged behind inflation while staffing and technology costs continue to rise has necessitated a new approach to delivering healthcare. Managed care models nationwide show coordinated care is an effective means to improve both quality and access to health care while also reducing costs. Using a team-oriented approach, health care providers place a greater focus on a patient’s behavior while tracking data that improve quality. At Sanford we are focusing on data analytics to drive continuous quality and process improvement by concentrating our efforts on areas that will lead to positive change. Payers are driving this change by transitioning from a traditional fee-for-service payment model (payments based upon volume) to value-based payments (pay for quality).

INVESTING IN THE COMMUNITY As a nonprofit health system, Sanford has a responsibility to partner with key stakeholders and serve the community’s needs. Sanford Bismarck’s recent partnerships with Prospera and the Missouri Valley YMCA have resulted in a new 120-bed post-acute care facility and a state-of-theart fitness facility, respectively, both in Mandan. We continue to invest in youth development by providing Sports Medicine services to a majority of our middle schools and high schools. Sanford POWER, an evidence-based integrated and comprehensive approach to sports performance programming and injury prevention, is also partnering with area schools. We want Bismarck-Mandan to be the healthiest community in the country and the best place to live, work and receive health care. The fact that so many people rely on Sanford Health for their health care is a tremendous responsibility – one that our entire organization takes very seriously. We are grateful for the trust the community has in us, and we are proud to be a part of Bismarck-Mandan and western North Dakota. Sanford is excited to continue to grow with the community and the region, and we are committed to providing high-quality healthcare close to home.


RETAIL

RETAIL OUTLOOK BY: Jennifer Wilson, Kirkwood Mall Bismarck’s retail base has grown significantly with new developments along the north corridor of 83 and several mixed-use projects throughout town. As a key contributor to the economy since the 1970s, Kirkwood Mall continues a mainstay in the community as a retail option and a community gathering space. With an ownership change in 2013, mall owner CBL Properties has emphasized a long-term focus on re-investing and evolving the property to meet the demands of the retail shopper and population growth. CONTINUED PROPERTY REINVESTMENT SHOWS RETAIL INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE Kirkwood Mall completed a multi-million dollar parking lot renovation in fall 2016 to include a ring-road around the mall to more easily move traffic from one side to the other as well as significant landscape changes to enhance the visual appeal of the exterior. Keeping the focus on the exterior, CBL also developed two outparcels; one along the Bismarck Expressway that’s home to Panera Bread and one that is home to Verizon Wireless and Caribou Coffee along South Third Street. Our newest addition, Lucky’s 13 Pub opened in summer 2017 on the coveted corner of South Third Street and Bismarck Expressway. Inside the property, Kirkwood Mall is undergoing a complete renovation to the common area space. The 848,102-square-foot property will transform the property’s corridors to approximately 70% porcelain tile and 30% carpet. The carpet will be strategically placed in the north, south and main corridors to house new soft seating furniture, live plants, and tables.

The project includes a complete redesign of both public restrooms as well as a facelift to the south entrance with an anticipated completion date of October 2018. Community should see this reinvestment as an indication in the confidence CBL Properties has in the retail industry. The National Retail Federation reported holiday sales up over 5% in 2017 over 2016. That trend continued in January and is projected to maintain throughout Q1 of 2018. STRONG COMMUNITY CONTRIBUTION Kirkwood Mall contributes approximately $9.2 million in sales tax annually and approximately $750,000 in annual property taxes. Depending on the time of the year, Kirkwood Mall’s collective retailers employ 1,500 – 2,000 jobs. Economic contributions like these statistics from Kirkwood Mall are important considerations when evaluating the health of the industry. By reinvesting in the property through renovations and leasing reinvention, leadership is optimistic that the region will respond and, subsequently, contribute more by shopping locally. ATTRACTING THE RIGHT TENANT MIX & PARTNERSHIPS Kirkwood and CBL leadership continue their quest for a strong mix of local and national tenants to provide a unique and convenient shopping experience. 2016 proved a successful year in adding to that mix with the addition of new tenants to include the state’s only H&M, a global fast fashion brand, and local and regional favorites A&B Pizza and clothing boutique, Out of Town.

Adding more local shops in 2017 with the opening of Sinful Delights Dessert Bar, Cup Burrr’n and Wild Rose Boutique, Kirkwood Mall is now a hub for local entrepreneurs. (Approximately 30% of tenants at Kirkwood Mall are locally-owned businesses or franchise owners.) The focus for leasing is now on providing more entertainment and dining options as well as offering additional services and mixed-use space into the future. The renovation will also contribute to attracting new local and national stores and experiences to Kirkwood Mall. Anchored by five national or regional retailers respectively, Kirkwood Mall retailers continue to grow and lead their respective companies in areas of traffic, sales, and growth. These factors attract community businesses and organizations to consider the mall for branding opportunities to include sponsorships, events and advertising. It is these partnerships that contribute to the energy and community engagement Kirkwood Mall aspires to achieve in its center. Canvassing for key partnerships in mixed-use opportunities, the property’s renovation and a strong communication strategy poise Kirkwood Mall for continued reinvention. The focus on providing the region’s premier shopping experience will continue to drive decisions for the property and is what energizes the local property leadership.

RETAIL } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } 11


SURVEY RESULTS

WHO IS YOUR PRIMARY TARGET MARKET? BISMARCK-MANDAN 43% NORTH DAKOTA 32% MIDWEST 19% NATIONWIDE 6% 2017 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

45%

37%

8%

37%

1%

50%

34%

10%

5%

1%

BISMARCK-MANDAN

NORTH DAKOTA

MIDWEST

NATIONWIDE

INTERNATIONAL

BISMARCK-MANDAN

NORTH DAKOTA

MIDWEST

NATIONWIDE

INTERNATIONAL

ON AVERAGE, HOW MANY FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT EMPLOYEES DO YOU HAVE? 4% 28%

10%

1-4 8% 5 - 19 20 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 499 500+

18%

32%

2016 RESULTS

2017 RESULTS 24%

37%

14%

8%

13%

4%

33%

31%

17%

7%

10%

2%

1-4

5 - 19

20 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 499

500+

1-4

5 - 19

20 - 49

50 - 99

100 - 499

500+

For full survey results visit www.bismarckmandan.com

12 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } SURVEY RESULTS



SURVEY RESULTS

WHAT IS YOUR BUSINESS CLASSIFICATION? BUSINESS TO BUSINESS 20% BUSINESS TO CONSUMER 30% BOTH 50% 2017 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

24%

29%

49%

23.35%

35.33%

41.32%

BUSINESS TO BUSINESS

BUSINESS TO CONSUMER

BOTH

BUSINESS TO BUSINESS

BUSINESS TO CONSUMER

BOTH

IS YOUR BUSINESS EXPERIENCING DIFFICULTY IN ATTRACTING AND HIRING QUALIFIED WORKERS?

MET EXPECTATIONS

EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS

PREFORMED BELOW EXPECTATIONS

OVERALL, HOW WOULD YOU COMPARE YOUR ORGANIZATION’S EXPECTED RESULTS TO ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN 2017?

2017 RESULTS

43%

BELOW EXPECTATIONS

22%

EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS

43%

MET EXPECTATIONS

YES

34%

NO

66%

2017 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

31%

23%

27%

BELOW EXPECTATIONS

41%

EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS

32%

MET EXPECTATIONS

46%

14 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } SURVEY RESULTS

46%

54%

43%

57%

NO

YES

NO

YES



SURVEY RESULTS

WHICH BEST REPRESENTS YOUR FORECASTED CHANGES FOR 2018? 17.95%

SALES REVENUE

TOTAL OPERATING COST AS A % OF REVENUE

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

PROFITABILITY

11.97%

8.33%

EMPLOYEE LENGTH OF WORKWEEK

55.83%

70.08%

35.83%

11.76%

4.16%

27.73%

EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION

28.33%

60.51%

67.5%

10.00%

2.52%

40.83%

PRICES PAID FOR RAW MATERIALS

47.06%

49.17%

50.42%

19.17%

10.83%

17.50%

PRICES RECEIVED FOR PRODUCTS/SERVICES

39.27%

63.33%

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

16 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } SURVEY RESULTS

49.99%

9.17%

DECREASE

54.17%

NO CHANGE

36.67%

A


9.33%

24.24%

5.13% 2.7%

OTHER

7.41% ATTRACTING & RETAINING QUALIFIED EMPLOYEES

5.71%

SURVEY RESULTS

WHAT FACTORS ARE MOST LIKELY TO ADVERSELY IMPACT YOUR BUSINESS IN THE NEXT YEAR?

INCREASING COMPETITION INCREASING RAW MATERIAL COSTS INCREASING REGULATIONS DIFFICULTY PROVIDING HEALTH INSURANCE FOR EMPLOYEES INCREASING TRANSPORTATION/FUEL COSTS CHALLENGES IN ACQUIRING FINANCING

36.67%

41.11%

2017 RESULTS 15.69%

43.09%

26.28%

8.65%

13.6%

7.63%

.9%

8.41%

20%

6.67%

5.56%

8.89%

1.11%

6.67%

2016 RESULTS 15.56%

35.55%

Colors correspond with categories listed above

DO YOU EXPECT TO PREFORM BETTER OR WORSE IN 2018 COMPARED TO 2017? BETTER 66% WORSE 18% NO CHANGE 16% 2017 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

65%

16%

19%

56%

25%

19%

BETTER

WORSE

NO CHANGE

BETTER

WORSE

NO CHANGE

SURVEY RESULTS } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } 17


SURVEY RESULTS

DO YOU THINK THE BISMARCK-MANDAN ECONOMY WILL PREFORM BETTER OR WORSE IN 2018 COMPARED TO 2017? 29%

56%

BETTER WORSE NO CHANGE

15%

2017 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

49%

18%

33%

12.5%

51%

36.5%

BETTER

WORSE

NO CHANGE

BETTER

WORSE

NO CHANGE

DO YOU THINK THE NATIONAL ECONOMY WILL PREFORM BETTER OR WORSE IN 2018 COMPARED TO 2017? BETTER 66% WORSE 10% NO CHANGE 11% 2017 RESULTS

2016 RESULTS

77%

13%

10%

21%

51%

28%

BETTER

WORSE

NO CHANGE

BETTER

WORSE

NO CHANGE

18 } 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK } SURVEY RESULTS


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