How Lumber Looks

December wac a remarkably good montfi for the mill men and wholeoalers, considering the generdly accepted fact thet California dealers, and any dealen for that matter, do not buy any lurnber that is not abrolutely neces$ryr iuEt before the first of the year and inventory time.

This December waa the exception to the extent of fairly good ales being reported throughout the state, more than fair rail business and a univerral optimirtic feeling arr.tng the retailers t{rat presagec full order bookr just as a(xtn as the Ners Year's bells finich ringing and heads are clear the next morning. New Year'r Day is a nragic time, in the lurnber business.

As a year 1925 wac not highly profitable to the lumbermen of thir state, either end of the busine$. While the gSoss volurne of business done by the wholesale tnen was iust about on a par with Iast year, tlris is proven by the shipping figurea into Southern Cdifornia and the Bay District, the margins of profit were sadly shaken as compared with 1924' one of the highly profitable years for the wholesale distributorr. It cannot be said that they are reEponsible to any gfeat €rrt€nt for this condition. M"t y factors entered into the price fuctuations ttrroughout the year, conditionr beyond the control of the rnen at the wheel this far from production.

The retail lumbermen can salt their memories of 1925 aloog with other aeiasons when they "just stayed in buri' nel!.tt Profits were low, volrsne war off.from the preceding three years, and one ggeat good that the sLacking up did, was to get these men back into the harneta and chow them the way to readjust their burineases to prerent day conditions.

Right now yards are straightened up, working forces have been weeded out and rtrengtrhened, and tteae men are all ret, barring possibly tte fact that stocks are not up to normal, for tfie banner year that the newspapers of the country have been predicting.

It would be folly to make any ertimation as to what would,happen to pricer in the next thirty or sixty days. The retailers have to get higher lists for their goods, if they are to pro6t thir year, and the wholesale and mill men will be govemed largely by forces other than have entered into conrideration in timet part.

The uual winter curtailment and shut-down problem ir with us again, the clore of a poor Ee,aaon that has spurred tte manufacturer to greater effort for 1926, the great volume of Fir that is going to the east coast, particularly Florida, the GuIf ahipments and other thinge all can be tahen into consid€ration.

Carl Crow, Portland authority, had this to say a few dayr ago, in commenting on the prospect!!

The general outlook at t{re preeent moment holdr many uncertaintiea but has a strong leaning torrard improvement.

The revival which two wee&r ago 6rrt begun to take on form, has developed to the point where pricec have been afiecied. Yard business for rail shipment has probably had more. change than any other market and Atlantic coast bruiness is a cloae second. While there ic no way of knowing definitely, it looks ar though of dI of the numerous inquiriel that were so much in svidence three weekr ago but few have come back to the coast in firm orders. There has been a fair volume of new businesa placed but moatly for badly mixd oanr or orderu which were being held with the hope of buying cheaper.

The eastern retail yard buyerr have for several yearr become accuatomed to the tighlening up of the rnarket jurt before the holidays but those who have held off their pur' chasee have urually been able to buy for lesr money when the millr again resumed sawing in January. It is not unlikely that the majority of the inguiries are still being held for that Eame reason.

On the .A,tlantic coast building perrnits taken out for the la.st two months guarantee a heavy consumption of lumber the early part of next year and as evidence of their faith in the future the buyers are willing to place orders now if it can be done at their own figures, for rhipment in the early spring. Some of thig business is being accepted.

The outlook for car material orders ie vety encouraging. Export businesE is corning in, in satisfactory volurne. California only is'showing no improvement.

The future demand EeemE well fixed. The only danger lies in the length of time it may be held in abeyance.

Production also has itr uncertaintier. From all appearances the curtailment drring the lafter part of this montfi'.' January and February will be the heaviest that it has been in yearc and the most effective as it promises to stretch out over a longer period instead of ending abruptly and throwing a lot of mills in a position where they would have to have businees dl at once.

On the one hand you have a very promising demand; on the other, prospects for a well balanced reduction in thc supply. If both of these factors continue on their prescnt trendr the market cannot help but hold firm or increase, but the,re ir the possible infuence of weather at both endr of the market, which could bring ttrong prersure to bear to accentuate what now seems a probable outcome or to wofk greatly agfist it.

The next few -weeks hold many uncertaintier with the odds in favor of more businecs and better prices.