Western timber shortage: fact or fiction? ii!fr:{l#1uT""""'

11 EPRESSED markets for timber l/products have delayed the impending timber shortage resulting from environmental issues in general and the listing of the spotted owl as a thrcatened species in particular. As a result, customers of lumber and plywood mills in the Pacific Northwest are uncertain whether the predicted timber shortage is rcal or just so much sales propaganda.

The timber supply from public lands is shrinking because the land base for growing timber is being sharply reduced. The Draft and/or Final Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) prepared by the U.S. Forest Service for all Westside National Forests and BLM lands called for setting aside vast areas for the northern spotted owl. In addition, they imposed numerous other limitations on the remaining land, restricting the practice of fores0ry and the growing of [ees.

When the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the spotted owl as a threatened species in June 1990, the

Forcst Service's environmental impact statements immediately became obsolete. The listing resulted in even more timberlands being placed off limits for the growing and harvesting of timber. This year, further aggressive action by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service required the sening aside of additional new areas of land for the spotted owl.

These areas, equivalent to the states of Massachusens, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delawarc, are much larger than we ever thought possible just six months ago. Additional lmpacts are occurring because of environmental litigation limiting foresnl activities in areas not involving the spotted owl.

Clearly, biologists are assuming almost total dominance in the programs of all the resource agencies. This development, as well as the complete absence of economic or sociological considerations by the government in both legislative and administrative branches, has further exacerbated the timber supply problem. It's important to realize that the Western Oregon,

Western Washington and Northern Califomia lands affected by these decisions are some of the most productive timberlands in the world.

The timber supply in the five-state area of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and California is a combination of private and public ownerships. Large industrial ownerships contribute the majority of the private timber to both the industry and to the log export markets. Public timber ownership in the Pacific Northwest is dominated by the federal government, which for over 25 years has provided morc than 50Vo of the timber harvest in Oregon and over lTVo of the timber harvest in Washington. In 1990, that harvest dropped to $Vo and l4Vo respectively. In the states of ldaho, Montana and California, the federal timber harvest ranged between 40Vo and 507o during the same period.

When we remove the volume of logs exported fiom private lands from this data, we find that Oregon mills have obtained approximately ffiVo of their timber from federal lands; Washington, over 30Vo. In ldaho, Montana and California log exports are at a minimum and the timber dependency equals 40-50Vo,which is the percent of federal timber actually harvested. In the five-state area, the mills have had a 48Vo dependency on federal timber in normal times. In the depressed year of 1990, this dropped 39Vo, the lowest in 25 years with the exception of the recession of 1982.

The decline of volume under contract on federal lands has accelerated in l99l and will continue into 1992 because of the continued decline in timber offerings. Moreover, not only do we have a decline in volume of timber under contract, we also have a major decline in the harvest, which indicates an even greater supply problem in the near future.

Continued appeals and lawsuits designed to halt both existing and new timber sales are being used by opponents of timber harvest to disrupt the already limited sales program. In May 1991, the Seattle Audubon Society prevailed in the case litigated before Judge Dwyer in the District Court in Seattle. As a result, the Westside National Forcsts in Oregon and Washington and the four Northern California

Production

National Forests had their fiscal year l99l and fiscal year 1992 timber sale programs destroyed. They will offer only l0-20%o of the planned timber sale programs for l99l and 1992.

Whereas nine months ago, we estimated a 75Vo pertormance level of the congressionally authorized timber sale progmm for all of Region 6 (Oregon and Washington), we now estimate a performance level below 40Vo for l99l and 1992. This constitutes a further disaster for mills and their surrounding communities.

The West's privately owned timber can compensate very little, if at all, to offset this reduced federal timber supply. Private timberlands are being placed under new environmental pressures that may, in the long run, significantly rcduce their productive capabilities.

This year and next year are clearly "crunch time" for our industry in the Pacific Northwest. Because poor markets have curtailed log usage at the mills, the timber inventories have been maintained at higher levels than would have been the case in a normal market. There is, however, nothing on the horizon to break the final freefall of the federal timber volume available to western mills. Harvest levels have continued to exceed the volume offered for sale. Consequently, we foresee more curtailments and closures of mills depending on federal timber in the immediate future.

Story at a Glance Overvlew of tlmber supply

In the Paclfic Northwest

...why envlronmental challenges are shrlnklng Inventorles, harvest and sales

...more mlll closures... no way to flll the vold at present

The forest products industry and timber dependent communities in the West are bearing the brunt of the unwise and unconbolled decisions being made by Congress and the government bureaucracy.

Currently, the forest products industry in the Pacific Northwest is going through the most traumatic period

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