Conditions in the Northwest Lumber Indusitry

By C. C. Crow, Editor Crow'd Pacific Coast Lumber Digest.

For two years in succession I have written a sob story about conditions in the Northwest Lumber Industrv for the Anniversary Number of the CALIFORNh f-UM'eBn ' MERCHANT. I have been compelled to do that because I know Jack Dionne always publishes the truth regardless oj what.it may be and thit sime conviction tro* g'in.. *. the privilege of saying to the readers of this jouinal that conditions surrounding the lumber industry - in Oregon, Washington 4nd BritiJh Columbia are the best they h-ave been for several vears.

- very gratifying. Mill stocks have been reduced to a footage that now shows no surplus except on.scattered items that never do move well. The sales iesistance thus set up has had a stimulating influence on all markets. Atlantii Coast cargo business has been a close second to California cargo in its strength, that in spite of the fact that the trade has held back placements and delivered prices have not been-as strong as those on the buying end. Car Material orders have leen enough to load up the mills that cater to this kind of business and cause piices to advance along with retail yard itgms.

Fjrom January to the middle of April it was the same old story of "Everybody for himself and the devil take the hindmost." But, pricei continued to lose ground and the situation which was already bad, steadily became worse. Ey th. first of May a maj6rity of the mills had reached the point where the operaling- loss was greater than the overhead would have been iithev had shut down. The ; first expression of this conclusion came from Grays Harbor when two of the largest plants in that district shut down with the announcemlnt that they lgould remain idle until conditions improved. The idea'spread lilce wildfir'e with the result that the output of fir lumber fell ofi over 1-8 ge_r cent during May and-the market responded to this shrinkage in the supply immediately.

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To the great surprise of everyone, California, the poorest market from the standpoint of price, suddenly became the most active. Within two weeks from the time the first mills shut down, there was a scramble to make placements and it is not necessary to say, prices advanced by leaps and bounds.

What are conditions today and what does the future hold ?

Those are burning qu6stions.

The Middle West and Eastern retail yards have been the most reluctant to accept the revival as a definite trend and. have doled out their orders as much as possible until their stocks have decreased approximately 10^per cent dur- ing the.past sixty days and 75 per cent bf thiir buying is now being 9ol-. by wire, calling frantically for immedlate shipment of difficult assortmenti that betriv the condition ttttlf,Xr,ti"""Il"",

"ton" has remained immune to the improvement and-up_until just recently the foreign buyers have.strung their placements out into a thin enough striam tbat it has been impossible to get more money fr-om them. Ifowever, the early-part of thiJmonth, due to the relief offered- !y ttt. increased volume of domestic water business, the tidewater mills have advanced export prices and they are being secured on most of the orders -being acceptei today.

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In the first place, never before in the history of the Northwest lumber industry have the mills had pioduction reg-ulation so well in hand. There has been an iwakening and the expedient thing is being done rvith a determinatioi that cannot help but bring about the desired results. With but- few exceptions, every mill of any consequence has laid out a sawing program that provides for not less than a ?O per cent reduction from the basis on which thev ran last year. The same rrtethod is not used by ..ue"yore. A majority are running on the five-day week with a few days additional chopped off here and there to bring up the average. Others are running on their normal sihedules and then going down for periods of from one to four weeks at a time, but in the aggregate each mill is doing its share of the regulating and .there is every f,eason to believe that this method of sawing will continue through the balance of this year.

The resirlts of production regulation have already been

The Northwest lumber industry is coming out of the back woods very rapidly. New heads and niw ideas are being brought into the picture and while it is too much to expect that there will not be temporary lapsations in the progress to commercial sanity, the initiat' feeble attempts to producti,on regulation that gave the operators a taste of .the possibilities that finally .resulted in tire pres- ent effeclive -action, is a sample of what may be expicted along other lines in the future.

The manufacturers-and loggers are now spending annu- ally three-quarters of a million dollars to iducate- thernselves and their trade to the end that their markets mav be broadened and the production of lumber be put on a per- manently profitable basis. The results obtiined to date are most gratifying.

Eventually, if that time has not already arrived, the output of lumber w{ll be regulated to meet the seasonal consumption. Then the sales level will be high enough to give a margin of profit over the cost of pioduction and prices will be steady and the retailer will be benefitted rather than injured in the transitiqn.