Natural Gas and the Commercial Vehicle Industry Utica Summit 2014 Canton, Ohio
Cummins Inc. and Cummins Bridgeway
Natural gas engines have been providing power to the world for over 150 years.
Natural gas vehicle use has evolved and grown significantly in the last decade. Natural Gas Vehicle Production Regional Haul
Refuse/Waste
Urban Transit 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Natural gas buses are used in transit, BRT, school, and shuttle service nationwide.
Most North American transit and school bus manufacturers offer natural gas options.
Natural gas trucks are available today in configurations to meet most business needs.
Almost all heavy-duty trucks brands in North America offer natural gas options.
Natural gas vehicles are factory-built with natural gas engines & fuel systems.
LNG Tanks Natural Gas Engine
– OR – CNG Tanks
Cummins manufacturers two NG engine models today, and are introducing two more. ISB6.7 G
ISL G
ISX12 G
2015 Displ: 6.7 L Power: 260 hp Torque: 660 lb-ft
8.9 L 320 hp 1000 lb-ft
12 L 400 hp 1450 lb-ft
ISX 15 G
2016 15 L TBD hp TBD lb-ft
Other natural gas engines include models by Westport Innovations and (soon) Volvo.
Too shy for photo
HD15L 475 HP
D13 TBD HP (2014)
Natural Gas Engine – How does it work?
ISX12 G 400 HP 1450 Lb-ft Spark Ignited 100% Nat Gas CNG or LNG
First Production ISX12 G on Cummins assembly line in Jamestown, NY (4/9/13)
Natural Gas Engine – How does it work? Cooled Recirculated Exhaust
Natural Gas
Air
Natural Gas Engine – How does it work? Spark Plugs & Coils
Natural Gas Engine – How does it work? Catalytic Converter
Turbocharger
Low engine-out emissions allow SI natural gas engines to use three-way catalyst. Reduces three harmful emissions: NOX, CO, HC Maintenance-free Catalyst Inlet
Catalyst Outlet
NOX
N2
CO
CO2
HC
H2O
NG commodity prices translate into a ~40% price advantage at the retail pump in US. U.S. Retail Pump Price (DGE)
5
40%
4 3 2 1 0
g a t n a v ad
$4.00 $1.60
$2.40 $1.90
e
Wellhead Price
2.4
0.5
Natural Gas
Diesel
Cost savings from switching to natural gas can be significant commercial vehicles.
Savings per year
Diesel = $4.00/gal Natural Gas= $2.40/gal Fuel Usage
$500
$24,600
Fuel Savings @ equal efficiency
= 15,000 gal
Does lower engine efficiency offset the fuel cost advantage of natural gas?
Savings per year
MPG
Diesel = $4.00/gal Natural Gas= $2.40/gal Fuel Usage NG$500 Efficiency
$24,600
$18,100
Fuel Savings Fuel Savings @ actual @ equal efficiency efficiency
= 15,000 gal = 85%
Do higher maintenance costs offset the fuel cost advantage of natural gas?
Savings per year
MPG Maintenance + Spark plugs
+ GEO oil + Valve adjust - DPF & SCR maintenance
$24,600
$18,100
$17,600
Net Fuel Savings Fuel Savings @ actual Operating Cost @ equal Savings efficiency efficiency
Current natural gas prices generate < 3 year payback for â&#x20AC;&#x153;high fuel useâ&#x20AC;? vehicles. Economic Payback from Natural Gas 6.0 5.0
$1.50 fuel price differential < 3 year payback
4.0 3.0
rs) ck(Y ayb tP Fle
2.0 1.0 0.0 $1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
Fuel Price Differential
Annual Fuel Consumption: 15,000 gal diesel Vehicle Price Differential: $50k
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
Today’s population of NG fuel stations is insufficient for variable route, long haul fleets. Fuel Station Population in U.S. 140,000
# of Stations
120,000
Participants entering market: • Pilot/Flying J with Clean Energy • Travel America with Shell • ENN (China) via Blu • Kwik Stop
121,446
100,000 80,000 60,000
51,007
40,000 20,000 0 Gasoline Stations
6,000 Truck Stops
605
35 LNG Stations
Early adopters operate vehicles on fixed routes, and/or invest in private fuel stations.
Today’s natural gas fuel tanks are large and heavy compared to diesel tanks. 150 DGE capacity comparison
Diesel
CNG
LNG
Size Penalty
Baseline
4x
2x
Weight Penalty*
Baseline
2000 lbs
300 lbs
Cost Penalty
Baseline
~$30,000
~$25,000
* Net of engine & aftertreatment weight differences
• ARPA-E Funding - $30 million for new CNG tank technology • New players: Trilogy, 3M, others entering CNG tank market.
Natural gas adoption rate in the commercial vehicle market will be driven by four factors Low natural gas prices (relative to diesel) Increased number of natural gas fuel stations Reduction in natural gas fuel tank size, weight, cost Expanded availability of natural gas vehicles
All four factors will trend favorably for natural gas in the next five years.
The natural gas adoption rate will continue to increase.
Market Segment
2018 NG Market Adoption Rate
Transit Bus
15-20%
Refuse Truck
50-60%
HD Truck
5-10%
Summary Natural gas is an opportunity for truck & bus fleets to dramatically reduce their operating costs. Natural gas engines and vehicles are available in a wide variety of configurations – a vehicle for every need. Switching from diesel to natural gas is not without challenges, but expect natural gas commercial vehicles to be a significant portion of the market in five years.