CHACRDIGEST#33
The views expressed in this Digest are not those of the British Army or UK Government. This document cannot be reproduced or used in part or whole without the permission of the CHACR. chacr.org.uk
THE NEW GOVERNMENT’S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES
Since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an early UK general election in May, the debate has largely focused on domestic and economic issues. However, a series of high-profile international meetings in July – the NATO summit in Washington starts on 9 July, five days after the country goes to the polls – means defence and foreign policy issues are likely to dominate the first few weeks of the new government. James Landale, the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent, sets out the various international challenges facing a new government, including the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Joe Devanny, a lecturer at King’s College London, argues that the incoming government will need to reform Whitehall’s national security decision-making processes drawing on more outside voices from non-governmental organisations, think tanks, universities and the private sector. Finally, in an article for Prospect, Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, urges the incoming government to focus its attention on Europe. In the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine, he argues that “the need for a strong UK commitment to the continent’s defence is greater than it has been in four decades”.
CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN ISRAEL
Relations between Israel’s national security community and the current Netanyahu-led government have been under strain since early 2023; large numbers of Israel Defence Forces (IDF) reservists refused to report for duty last year in response to the government’s plans to overhaul Israel’s judiciary. Writing for the Institute for National Security Studies in September 2023, one month before Hamas’ assault, Asa Kasher, Meir Elran and Idit Shafran Gittleman warned of the growing distrust between Israel’s government and the IDF’s military leadership. In a recent analysis for the Middle East Institute, Guy Ziv, an associate professor at the American University, argues that the fissures between the politicians and the national security community have widened even further since 7 October 2023. Israeli military leaders and intelligence chiefs claim that the government’s lack of a ‘day after’ plan for Gaza threatens to undermine the tactical successes achieved by the IDF against Hamas. Benny Gantz, a former IDF chief of staff, recently resigned from the Israeli war cabinet citing similar concerns. As tensions mount along Israel’s northern border, growing rifts between Israel’s government and national security community threaten to undermine the policymaking process.
PUTIN’S RED LINES
In May Politico reported that the Biden Administration had given Kyiv permission to use long-range munitions supplied by the US to strike targets inside Russia; the decision was taken after Russian forces launched an offensive near Kharkiv. In a speech to the foreign press following the US decision, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to provide long-range weapons to states hostile to the West as part of an “asymmetric” response to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. However, in a blog post for Comment is Freed, Lawrence Freedman argues that Putin’s red lines are losing credibility and suggests that Western risk appetite in Ukraine is growing as a result. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron has become increasingly vocal in calling for Western troops to be deployed to Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces. To avoid facing a credibility deficit, Freedman urges Western policymakers to focus on bolstering defence capabilities rather than relying on ambiguous threats.
ESTIMATING WAGNER LOSSES IN BAKHMUT
Calculating precise casualty figures in Ukraine is notoriously difficult, however, a recent joint investigation by BBC Russian and Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet, revealed that as many as 20,000 Wagner fighters were killed in the battle for Bakhmut. Based on a list of personal data of Wagner fighters, they calculate that 88 per cent of the dead were former convicts. Prisoners – described as “disposable infantry” in a Royal United Services Institute report – were deployed in small groups in the vanguard. Their objective was to draw fire in order to reveal Ukrainian firing positions and force defenders to expend ammunition. Prisoners would also be used to locate and probe weak points in the Ukrainian line, such as unit boundaries, which were then exploited by more experienced Russian troops. While the fighting in Bakhmut massively reduced Wagner’s combat potential, the town has provided Russian forces a platform from which to threaten more important objectives such as Chasiv Yar.
LEARNING FROM UKRAINE’S NAVAL WAR
Ukraine’s success in driving the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Crimea to Novorossiysk has reduced Russia’s ability to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports and enabled Ukrainian military commanders to redeploy troops from coastal areas. Ukrainian military officials claim to have sunk or disabled a third of Russian warships in the Black Sea since February 2022, mainly through the use of ground-based anti-ship missiles and maritime drones. Speaking to Monocle’s The Foreign Desk, James Bergeron, chief political adviser at NATO’s Allied Maritime Command, suggested that the conflict in the Black Sea “woke [NATO] up” to the threat posed to maritime supply chains. NATO forces are also learning from Ukraine’s tactical success, including Kyiv’s use of uncrewed surface vessels in attacks against naval facilities in Crimea. However, despite Ukraine’s successes, Joshua Huminski, writing for Engelsberg Ideas, argues that ignoring the unique context of the current conflict could lead Western officials to draw the “wrong conclusions” about the future of naval warfare and underestimate the broader value of naval power, suggesting that much of Ukraine’s success can be attributed to operational failures by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY AFTER THE ELECTIONS
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered a shock electoral setback in June when his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its parliamentary majority; the BJP won 240 seats in the lower house of parliament, well-short of the 272 required for a majority. Despite the BJP’s weakened position, Daniel Markey, a senior adviser on South Asia at the United States Institute for Peace, argues that we are unlikely to see a shift in India’s foreign policy. Modi will retain a free hand in setting the government’s foreign policy agenda while the BJP’s coalition allies are likely to be more focused on domestic issues, such as proposed reforms to military recruitment New Delhi’s relationship with Beijing will be high on the agenda for the third-term Modi government. In an article for Foreign Affairs, Praveen Donthi claimed that the Chinese-Indian border “is one of the world’s most dangerous flash points”. However, following the election results, BJP leaders may feel under pressure to adopt a tougher stance on China; the BJP has previously been criticised by its political opponents for failing to be more assertive towards Beijing.
A US DEFENCE DEAL WITH SAUDI ARABIA ON THE HORIZON
With the Biden Administration entering its final months, and the Middle East remaining unstable, the pressure is growing for the US to conclude its keystone policy defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. Originally designed as an inducement for Saudi normalisation with Israel, the events of 7th October 2023 have changed the strategic landscape, and undermined the rationale for any rapprochement between Riyadh and Jerusalem. In this comprehensive article scholar Kristian Ulrichsen describes the key components of a defence agreement and the strategic underpinnings of the Biden Administration’s embrace of Saudi Arabia. Ulrichsen makes clear that the US will try to lock in a firm agreement that survives any domestic political instability, and offers castiron assurances to Saudi Arabia in the event that it is attacked. Additionally ensuring that Saudi Arabia cooperates with the US on nuclear enrichment rather than China or Russia will be a crucial long-term strategic goal. In order to secure these wins, the Americans may well have to forego any hope of Saudi-Israeli relations improving.
NEWS STORIES TO WATCH OUT FOR
With tensions in the Middle East and the conflict in Ukraine continuing to dominate headlines, here are some other topics to keep an eye on:
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party suffered its worst election result in 30 years, losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. The ANC agreed to form a government of national unity with the main opposition Democratic Alliance and two other smaller parties.
A migrant boat capsized off the coast of Yemen, drowning at least 49 people. The incident has drawn further attention to the dangerous crossing between the Horn of Africa and Yemen, which is used by tens of thousands of migrants every year.
More than 1,300 people are believed to have died during this year’s Hajj pilgrimage following a deadly heat wave in Saudi Arabia. The deaths have placed increased scrutiny on Saudi Arabia’s government over its organisation of the pilgrimage.
Ecuador will temporarily suspend visa waivers for Chinese citizens, claiming that large numbers of Chinese visitors are failing to leave the country through “regular routes”. Many global migrants use Ecuador as a starting point for their journey to the US.
The prosecutor at the International Criminal Court has launched a campaign to gather evidence in relation to ongoing atrocities in Sudan. US officials have estimated that as many as 150,000 people have been killed in the conflict to date.
GANG VIOLENCE IN MEXICO
Mexico’s ruling party, Morena, won a landslide victory in elections on 2 June; Claudia Sheinbaum, a close political ally of the outgoing president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, won nearly 60 per cent giving her a 30-point lead over her nearest rival. Morena also won a super-majority in Mexico’s lower house of Congress. However, the elections were marred by widespread violence as organised crime groups sought to influence the outcome of state and municipal elections. By controlling local politicians, criminal groups can steer law enforcement towards rival gangs and influence how state resources are distributed. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project published several articles in the build-up to Mexico’s June elections which explain the factors behind political violence across Mexico. However, despite the increase in violence during the election campaign, Victoria Dittmar, a researcher at InSight Crime, argues that the three main presidential candidates failed to present a detailed policy programme for tackling organised crime. Indeed, Sheinbaum’s plans appear to be a continuation of Lopez Obrador’s policies, including the transfer of command of the National Guard from the public security ministry to the military.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
Continent-wide European Parliament elections in June saw hard right political parties make gains in several countries, though the centre-right and centre-left remain the biggest voting blocs. Ruling parties in Germany and France performed poorly, leading French President Emmanuel Macron to call a surprise snap parliamentary election. Experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations discussed the potential implications of the election results on the EU’s foreign policy agenda, arguing that the results may make it more difficult for the EU to pursue its stated global ambitions. But they do not believe that support to Ukraine is under threat; Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has shifted its position on Russia in response to widespread public support for Kyiv. National European governments are likely to place an even greater emphasis on the role of NATO in regional defence in order to divide transatlanticist and pro-Russia far-right parties. Attention will also be focused on the process to choose Josep Borrell’s successor as the high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy.
THE PHILIPPINES AND CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
Maritime tensions in the South China Sea have continued to escalate in recent months. In a confrontation between Filipino and Chinese vessels on 17 June, Philippine authorities accused the Chinese coastguard of injuring several Filipino sailors. Peter Leavy, a former Australian navy officer, argues that Chinese maritime forces exploit legal ambiguities to enhance Chinese influence in the South China Sea. He suggests that we are likely to see an increase in aggressive maritime operations by the Chinese coastguard following the introduction of “Provisions on Administrative Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies 2024”, a new legal framework for the China Coast Guard. In response to China’s increasing assertiveness, the Philippines’ president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, has sought to deepen his country’s ties to the US and Japan. Jose Miguelito Enriquez and Justin Baquisal explain the domestic political reaction to Marcos’ outreach to Washington and Tokyo as well as the potential implications for other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Around one third of global shipping passes through the South China Sea, meaning that any escalation in hostilities in the region would have significant global impacts.
THE ISLAMIC STATE GROUP 10-YEARS ON
29 June marked the 10-year anniversary of the Islamic State (IS) group’s establishment of its ‘caliphate’ in parts of Iraq and Syria. Since 2019, the core of IS in Iraq and Syria has been overshadowed by the group’s global network of affiliates and branches. A series of spectacular, large-scale attacks in Iran and Russia in early 2024 were linked to the Islamic State Khorasan Province based in Afghanistan and Pakistan. US officials also believe that Africa provides “very fertile ground” for groups such as IS and al-Qaeda; the recent targeting of a senior operational IS commander, Abdulqadir Mumin, in Somalia highlighted the continent’s importance to IS’s logistical, financial and recruitment networks. Speaking to the The Global Jigsaw, the BBC’s Jihadist Media Monitoring Team considers the group’s current capabilities and explains its “pivot to Africa”. The experts describe how by co-opting existing local insurgent groups, IS has expanded its reach into several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Writing for Lawfare, Charlie Winter, a counter-terrorism expert, provides an overview of the group’s recent resurgence in Mozambique. He argues that a complex, coordinated assault on the town of Macomia in May highlights the IS group’s continued ambitions to consolidate territorial control and implement its own systems of governance.