CHACRDIGEST
UKRAINE’S KURSK OFFENSIVE
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk is the first time Russia has been invaded by foreign troops since the Second World War. Ukrainian forces now control an estimated 1,000 square kilometres of enemy territory, however, Mike Kofman – a military analyst and expert on the Russian Armed Forces – describes the offensive as a gamble. Speaking with the Center for a New American Security’s Brussels Sprouts podcast on the 16th August, Kofman suggests Ukraine will face a series of key decision points in the next few weeks, including how far to extend the operation and where to establish defensive fortifications. Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, argues that the Kursk offensive may force Western observers to recalibrate some of their assumptions about the fighting in Ukraine. Crucially, Ukraine was able to achieve strategic, operational and tactical surprise despite the proliferation of unmanned aerial systems and other remote sensors. Writing for the Atlantic Council, Peter Dickinson suggests that Putin’s control over the Russian media means he is unlikely to come under significant domestic political pressure as a result of Ukraine’s offensive. However, Dickinson believes that the Ukrainian operation has successfully undermined Putin’s “strongman image” and exposed his threats of escalation as “bluster”.
RESTORING MANOEUVRE WARFARE IN UKRAINE
Since its failed attempt to rapidly seize Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has reverted to a strategy of attrition in order to leverage its numerical advantage. With Moscow willing to absorb enormous casualties, Ukraine’s forces – their surprise recent incursion into Kursk and the Kharkiv counter-offensive in autumn 2022 aside – have struggled to break the current pattern of positional warfare. A new report by the Institute for the Study of War, written before Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk, argues that “restoring operational-level manoeuvre remains the central problem in this war”. Using maps and tactical diagrams, the report explains the effects attacking forces must achieve in order to penetrate and exploit breaches in defensive fortifications.
A GROWING PROXY WAR IN AFRICA?
In late July, Tuareg separatists claimed to have killed 84 Wagner Group mercenaries and 47 Malian troops in a series of ambushes in northern Mali. Videos shared on social media showed Tuareg rebels posing with captured vehicles and equipment. The Wagner defeat is a significant tactical-level setback for the group; however, speaking as part of a Brookings Institution panel discussion, John Lechner, an expert on Russia’s growing influence in Africa, cautions against claims that the defeat amounts to a broader failure of Moscow’s strategy in the Sahel. The Wagner defeat at Tinzaoutene has also increased concerns among African leaders of a growing proxy war between Ukraine and Russia on the continent. On the 29th July, Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, hinted that the organisation had provided intelligence to the Tuareg rebels in advance of the attack on the Wagner convoy. In response, Mali’s junta severed diplomatic ties with Kyiv, accusing it of “complicity in acts of terrorism”. Paul Melly, a consulting fellow with the Africa Programme at Chatham House, argues that Kyiv risks paying a serious diplomatic price for its alleged support to the Tuareg separatists. However, James Horncastle, an assistant professor at Simon Fraser University, suggests that Kyiv is willing to accept the diplomatic costs of its special operations abroad in order to boost morale at home.
ISRAELI COVERT OPERATIONS IN IRAN
Fears are growing of an all-out regional war in the Middle East following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran on the 31st July. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have sought to shift the blame by accusing Haniyeh’s Palestinian security detail of providing a tip-off to his assassins. By contrast, Israeli sources are suggesting that a bomb was planted in Haniyeh’s bedroom in an effort to underline Israel’s ability to operate deep inside Iran. In 2023, writing for the Atlantic Council, Arash Azizi, the author of The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US and Iran’s Global Ambitions, argued that Iran’s security forces lack the capacity for effective counter-intelligence because they are so focused on suppressing internal dissent. Azizi also highlighted the technological gap between Israel and Iran in a more recent essay for The Atlantic. In order to facilitate its intelligence operations in Iran, Ahmad Hashemi, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, explained how Israel has sought to develop a strategic security partnership with Azerbaijan. The country’s long border with northern Iran makes it an ideal staging area for Israeli intelligence operatives.
IDF MILITARY OPERATIONS IN THE WEST BANK AND LEBANON RAMP UP
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have drastically increased the tempo of military operations in both the West Bank and Lebanon, with a series of pre-emptive strikes on key Hezbollah sites on the 24th August (to which Hezbollah responded by firing an estimated 340 rockets at northern Israel). This was followed swiftly by the IDF conducting sustained incursions into the cities of Jenin, Nablus, Tubas and Tulkarem on the 27th August. Senior analysts at the Washington Institute have described the actions as being part of a “oneday war” strategy, in which Israel acts proactively on intelligence to snuff out threats, thereby encouraging mini-escalations but not outright conflict. However, analysts from the Middle East Institute assert that “the war drags on”, arguing that Israel’s tactics may be preventing wider conflict but solve very little and provide no roadmap to when and how hostilities will end. Nimrod Goren argues that this scenario of permanent low intensity conflict may avert war but it cannot continue forever, with a war of attrition only increasing the costs for all sides and ultimately becoming unsustainable. Goren also notes that, in the case of the West Bank, it is time for Israel to cool things down and begin finding ways to cooperate with Palestinian Authority security forces.
SECURITY AT MAJOR EVENTS
The Paris Olympics saw the largest peaceful deployment of security forces in French history, with 75,000 police officers, soldiers and private security guards patrolling the city. Prior to the event, experts warned of a range of threats, including terrorism, cyber attacks and malign disinformation campaigns. While the French authorities successfully prevented any major security disruptions to the Olympics, the cancellation of Taylor Swift’s concerts in Vienna over an apparent terrorist plot highlighted the risks posed to major events. In an article for CTC Sentinel published before the Olympics, the authors set out several lessons for planners involved in the security of major sporting and entertainment events. For example, they highlight the importance of strategic and deterrence communication, arguing that communication campaigns must be at the heart of the planning process and not a “tactical ‘add-on’”. The authors also urge authorities to consider security at the “supply chain” of major events, including locations such as hotels, bars and restaurants, public transport and iconic tourist sites.
NEWS STORIES TO WATCH OUT FOR
With the US presidential election, tensions in the Middle East and conflict in Ukraine continuing to dominate headlines, here are some other topics to keep an eye on:
Reports recently emerged that German authorities issued an arrest warrant in June for a Ukrainian diving instructor in connection with the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022. The case threatens to spark tensions between Berlin, Warsaw and Kyiv.
Hundreds of Rohingya Muslims were reportedly killed in drone attacks in Myanmar, increasing fears of renewed violence against the Rohingya community. The Arakan Army, an ethnic-armed group, has been blamed for the attack, though it has denied any involvement. Groups opposed to Myanmar’s military junta have successfully integrated commercial drone technology into their forces.
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would step down in September in light of several recent scandals to hit the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Kishida has overseen major changes to Japan’s security policy, including an increase in defence spending to more than two per cent of gross domestic product.
Tensions between rival governments have increased in Libya, leading to growing fears of a resumption of the country’s civil war. Libya serves as a crucial hub for Russian activities across the Sahel and Central Africa.
Former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif resigned as vicepresident for strategy less than two weeks after being given the job by Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new president.
Pezeshkian’s cabinet picks have caused anger among his supporters, who accuse him of failing to deliver on his promises to assemble a more diverse cabinet.
Prior to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the election, most polling suggested that former president Donald Trump was on course for a second term in the White House. However, the dynamics of the US presidential race have changed dramatically following Vice President Kamala Harris’ confirmation as the new Democratic nominee. Most polling indicates that the presidential election is now effectively a toss-up. With less than 70 days to go until the US elections, here are some election poll trackers we recommend:
n The Economist’s model is updated every day and combines state- and national-level polling with economic indicators to predict presidential and down-ballot election results.
n The Financial Times uses the latest polls to calculate an average voting intention for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Users can select a winner in each state to predict each candidate’s path to the required 270 electoral college votes.
n FiveThirtyEight compiles the latest polls into a single database. Users can also check some of the most popular polling averages, including each candidate’s favourability ratings.
n The New York Times’ poll tracker provides a detailed breakdown of the head-to-head races in several crucial swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.
BANGLADESH AND INDIA
Sheikh Hasina, the longest-serving prime minister in Bangladesh’s history, fled Dhaka for New Delhi on the 5th August after weeks of anti-government protests had rocked the country. Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel peace laureate, will head a new caretaker government with a mandate to reform the political system and restore trust in law enforcement. While life has begun to return to normal in Bangladesh, events in the country are being monitored closely by Indian security officials. Two recent articles published by the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think-tank, argue that Hasina’s resignation is a “strategic shock” for New Delhi. Harsh V Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, explains that the threat of Islamist extremism from Bangladesh will be a top concern for India, which shares a 4,096 kilometre land border with Bangladesh. Under Hasina, Bangladesh’s security forces also eradicated training camps used by Indian separatist groups. Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, an associate fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, suggests that New Delhi’s close ties to Hasina may lead to an increase in anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh. He argues that this would undermine India’s efforts to boost transport and trade links with Bangladesh and offer inroads for India’s rivals: China and Pakistan.
OUT NOW...
l “In force development circles in the UK and, widely, elsewhere, it is often argued that professional competence, both in generals and in their staffs, will be enhanced by the obvious benefits of well-designed artificial intelligence (AI). Perhaps a general’s intuition alone need no longer be the deciding factor? The delivery of faster, better filtered and sorted, relevant data can change the OODA [Observe, Orient, Decide and Act]-loop turning-circles very much in favour of those who hold the AI upper hand. Thus, human ‘coup d’oeil’ can be hugely enhanced by machine ‘coup d’AI’. But, in the discussion of the relative merits of AI and the human factors involved in military command and decision making, a distinction needs to be drawn concerning the differences between the roles and realities of information and intelligence, instinct and intuition.”
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