CHACRDIGEST
Following a month to challenge any analyst, October has barely left chance to draw breath as world events escalate and expand at staggering speed. What follows is a short digest of what to read and where to read it for those wishing to start to understand some of those events, drawing on the very best from academia, think tanks and the media.
ISRAEL / GAZA / LEBANON
It has been yet another traumatic month in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and the wider region. Starting with Israeli troops crossing into southern Lebanon for “limited, localised and targeted raids” on the 30th September, Israel has continued to strike Hizbullah while Iran launched between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on the 1st October.
The growing tension and escalation have led Israel’s relationship with America to be the subject of intense debate and discussion. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan declared that US intelligence had helped Israel find and kill Yahya Sinwar. In addition, the US announced the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery to Israel although, indicative of the current character of conflict, bloggers revealed its location using open source information.
Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI, wrote that Iran’s missile attack is a challenge Israel can’t ignore and so it proved with Israel targeting missile factories near Tehran on the 26th October and reportedly killing two Iranian soldiers. However, Israel has not enjoyed universal US support. The announcement of the THAAD battery deployment was timed to coincide with an ultimatum stressing the urgency of greater humanitarian assistance to Gaza; specifically enabling a minimum of 350 trucks to enter Gaza per day – “failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for U.S. policy ... and relevant U.S. law”. In response, Israel let 50 aid trucks into northern Gaza
However, a number of commentators have written on the strategic imperative to resolve the conflict between Israel and Iran, noting that negotiation with the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian Liberation Organization or a Hizbullah ceasefire will not provide a lasting solution. Writing for Chatham House, Sir John Jenkins recommends degrading Iran’s ability to disrupt regional order by dismantling its influence in the region. Drawing on separate research for Policy Exchange, the article recommends reintroducing sanctions, targeting the funding of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and building better alliances among regional countries. The article is clear only the US can lead this collective effort. Equally, it identifies the importance of the bulk of Israeli society endorsing Palestinian self-determination, despite the emotional impact of the 7th October attacks.
The former Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders, spoke about a multipolar world beset by polycrisis at the end of 2023. 2024 has proved how prophetic that speech was as events around the globe continue to escalate. From the 22nd-24th October, Russia hosted a BRICS summit in Kazan to reshape global governance. An IISS article discusses how the international order is transforming and rebalancing, driven by rising Chinese economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness and emerging Global South powers. The synchronisation of Russian aggression and Chinese contention of previously accepted governance norms is also seen in a creeping challenge to Antarctic collaboration. Overall, this is creating a fragmented global landscape distinct from the clear ideological divide of the Cold War as Global South powers contest the outdated and unrepresentative US centric economic and geopolitical structures. However, unlike the Cold War, the increasingly multipolar world contains countries that see themselves as non-West, rather than anti-West, and adeptly navigate geopolitical competition to suit their domestic and foreign policy agendas. The potential impact of this on US statecraft is covered in detail by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It’s also discussed in a webinar by the US Strategic Multilayer Assessment. This webinar argues that key Global South countries, other than China, deserve greater US attention because they represent 32 per cent of the global population and 20 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product but, concerningly, have not imposed sanctions on Russia. Key to a more predictable world order are the reforms to global governance systems and international financial architecture identified by the UN General Assembly Pact for the Future at the end of September 2024.
RUSSIA / UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky outlined his five-point peace plan to Ukraine’s parliament on the 16th October and then addressed the European Council stating “there are two choices: Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, or we should have some kind of alliance… we want to choose NATO, not nuclear weapons”. This followed an attempt to increase restrained US support to mitigate what Ukrainian defeat might trigger. Zelensky stressed that Russian success will demonstrate US failure to stop military revisionism and provoke even more conflict across the world.
Moldova voted to join the European Union despite Russian active interference. The potentially divergent paths of Moldova and Georgia are discussed by James Nixey for Chatham House, who has predicted street protests if the unelected, proRussian Bidzina Ivanishvili perceptibly manipulates the election.
President Zelensky accused North Korea of providing 10,000 troops to Russia, dangerously widening the conflict at the same time as substantive defence talks took place between Russian Defence Minister Belousov and China’s Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. However, analysis by International Affairs, published in an article entitled Why will China and Russia not form an alliance?, has highlighted that, despite pragmatic cooperation over key issues, ultimately there is a divergence of world views between Presidents Putin and Xi.
NATO
October 2024 marked the arrival of Mark Rutte (pictured above meeting with President Zelensky in Kyiv) as NATO Secretary-General. A consensus builder and coalition maker, Chatham House write that he should have three priorities; maintain US and increase European support for Ukraine; keep the US engaged in Europe, while Europe quickly learns to fend for itself; and implement the new force model. This is on the basis that whoever wins the US election, pressure will increase to end the war in Ukraine. The prevailing view is that Kamala Harris is likely to focus on China whilst Donald Trump may choose to disengage from NATO and transatlantic security. In parallel, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley wrote in Foreign Affairs that the US remains unprepared for a character of war dominated by increasingly autonomous weapons systems and powerful algorithms. The implication for European nations is that development of a European defence industrial base and use of the European Defence Fund to close NATO capability gaps are key to ensuring NATO’s deterrence credibility.
INDO-PACIFIC / CHINA
The Chinese military is “dramatically expanding” its capabilities on Triton Island to control oil and gas reserves and expand its surveillance across the South China Sea, according to Chatham House. This includes synthetic impulse and aperture radar (SIAR) capable of detecting stealth aircraft: “SIAR radars cannot see over the curve of the Earth, which means there is a gap in China’s air surveillance coverage between Subi Reef and Hainan Island. The Triton Island site will help close that gap.”
Worryingly for European countries, RUSI argues that the increase in China’s nuclear arsenal demands a change to NATO’s nuclear posture, concluding that “nuclear multipolarity complicates deterrence decisionmaking” and that “nuclear deterrence dynamics in Europe and the IndoPacific must be analysed together”. RUSI also supports the view of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy as to the need for greater investment in nuclear dual capable aircraft.
Keen to underline the UK’s ‘NATO-first’ policy, the new UK Defence Secretary John Healey attended the NATO Defence Ministers meeting in Brussels and signed important agreements with Germany and Estonia. The RUSI article on the UK-Germany Defence agreement details how the accord is designed to increase not only armoured vehicle and artillery industrial capacity but mechanisms for increased cooperation in the future. The agreement will also increase operational output from the United Kingdom with German Navy aircraft operating from RAF Lossiemouth to support NATO deterrence in Northern Europe. Meanwhile the UK defence roadmap with Estonia commits a UK Brigade to high readiness from July 2025 to defend Estonia, in addition to those already deployed there. The UK has also committed to collaboratively develop new long-range missile capabilities and support the new ‘DIAMOND’ initiative to improve NATO’s integrated air and missile defences.
However, Jack Watling writes that the UK has pre-empted its own Strategic Defence Review and demonstrated worrying strategic ineptitude by unnecessarily ceding the strategically important Chagos Islands to Mauritian lawfare (aided by Russian diplomatic efforts), weakened its security in the short term and created a legal precedent that will invite pressure elsewhere in future. This was seized upon by Argentina’s Foreign Minister who promised “concrete action” to gain “full sovereignty” of the Falkland Islands despite Alison Blake, governor of the Falklands, noting the historical context was “very different”.
On the subject of the Strategic Defence Review, Dr Rob Johnson, previously director of SONAC, has analysed ten questions facing the Defence Review team for the Council on Geostrategy. Johnson concludes that “the UK has always been expeditionary and able to strike from the sea, or the air, with appropriate levels of force” and “deploy smaller expeditionary elements appropriate to the task” as “the new British way of war”. He recommends 11 actions including prioritising advanced technology, the nuclear deterrent and munitions production and abolishing unhealthy tribalism. The challenge, Johnson identifies, is how the Review team will fulfil his recommendations to achieve “precision, speed, secure communications, agility, and lethality”.
AFRICA
The worst drought in a century in Southern Africa has left more than 27 million lives affected and 21 million children malnourished. Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe have declared a state of national disaster and Angola and Mozambique are severely affected. The World Food Programme warned that the effects will likely deepen until April 2025, affecting the tens of millions of people in the region who rely on small-scale agriculture.
But the continent of Africa is also affected by conflict. The leasing of part of Somaliland’s coastline by Ethiopia has intensified tensions with Somalia, who have discussed building diplomatic relations with Egypt and Eritrea; themselves in disputes with Ethiopia over the Nile dam and the aftermath of the Tigray conflict. This Middle East Council on Global Affairs article outlines what is at stake for the region.
RUSI draws into focus Russian influence in Africa by highlighting the dilemma facing Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune faces the task of balancing his critical partnership with Russia with concerns over the destabilising impact of Wagner mercenaries in nearby Mali. President Tebboune has publicly criticised the use of mercenaries but Algeria is one of Russia’s largest arms customers and relies on advanced military equipment. Nevertheless, Algeria has denied Russia access to its Oran naval base and has strengthened ties with Europe as a key energy supplier.
