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“We, with our ancestors’ memories, have lived with papa Galeras and we are originals of this land. Instead of inviting us to evacuate elsewhere or to the city, come and invite us to strengthen our territory. Thus, instead of a ‘disaster area’, this land can keep being a life area and a development area“ Manifesto of May 23rd, by Urcunina’s sons, indigenous communities settled at the Galeras slopes. Genoy, May 23rd 2009
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From threat to growth A regional development strategy for volcanic risk management at the Galeras region, Colombia.
P4 :: J.F. Tascon Valencia: :4186702
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-TO LIVE AND TO DIE HERE. THAT IS OUR DECISION. STOP RESETTLEMENT ACT NOW!!
March 19th 2013. Protesters in Genoy and Mapachico. Source: Corregimiento Mapachico - facebook fan page.
5000
0
URBAN POPULATION
2008
1997 2005 2009
people still divided
2010
Regional economic crisis.
2006
Universities reaction: design competition
2005
ponzi scheme crisis
1993
indigenous council created communities divided
1997
Riots: People burn risk mangemnt plan
seismic activity
12 Million â‚Ź released for individual resettlements
12 Million â‚Ź released for resettlement
RURAL POPULATION High Vulnerabilty Zone is defined
10000
High Vulnerabilty Zone is defined
1988
1993
15 people died in volcanic eruption
1989
15 people died in volcanic eruption
scientifics confirm reactivation process
15000
scientifics confirm reactivation process
the big one...
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eruption
smoke+ ash +inminent explosion
Urban sprawl towards volcano sopes
Micro seismic activity
no activity
2012
2013
Source: This study
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Sandona 50.000
Caribean Region
La Florida 11.151 2.118
Nari単o 7.845 454
Genoy 3.358
Medellin Andean Region
Bogota Orinoquia Region
Cali
Consaca 12.693
Bogota
Galeras Volcano and Wildlife sanctuary
Pasto Quito (ECU)
Amazon Region
Guayaquil (ECU)
Yacuanquer 10.012 Population in regional scale : 430.702 People to resettle (IPC 2008): 7.935
Pasto The main city in the slopes of the volcano is Pasto with more than 400000 people which is a regional node at the border with Ecuador.
Genoy La Florida Nari単o
Pasto 411.706 2.005
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volcanoes
Volcanoes in Colombian-Ecuadorian Region
Mt. Redoubt Mt. St. Hellens 57 losses in 1980
Caribean Region
Andean Region
Mount Pelee 28000 losses in 1902 Ruiz (COL) 23000 losses in 1985
Huaynaputina (PER) world catastrophe in 1600
Bogota
Mt. Ruiz 23000 losses in 1985
Pacific Region
Mt. Galeras 10 losses in 1993 Quito
Most deadly eruptions in history. The Pacfic ring of fire is a 40.000 km horseshoe shape where a large number of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur in the basin of the Pacific Ocean
Orinoquia Region
= 100 fatalities
Amazon Region
Mt Tambora: 92000 losses in 1815 Krakatoa: 36000 losses in 1883 Mount Pelee: 28000 losses in 1902 Mt. Ruiz: 23000 losses in 1985 Vesuvious: 19000 losses in AD 79
source: http://www.loveinfographics.com
Source: This study
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0% 1973
1983
1993
Affected population
100%
1973, Heimaey 1976,La Soufriere 1977,Nyiragongo 1980, St Hellens 1982, Galunggung 1985, Nevado del Ruiz
Heimaey, 5300 affected
St. Hellens, 7919 affected
1991, Unzen 1994, Nevado del Huila
Unzen, 500 affected
2002, Nyiragongo 2005, Colima 2008, Chaiten
2003
Cases from Colombia: Huila: 45.000 affected
Tungurahua 25.000 affected Galunggung 200.000 affected
Dead victims Injured / damaged Chaiten 4.200 affected
Ongoing, Tungurahua Ongoing, Galeras 2013
1991, Unzen 1994, Nevado del Huila
2002, Nyiragongo 2005, Colima 2008, Chaiten 2003
1983
1980, St Hellens 1982, Galunggung 1985, Nevado del Ruiz
Not evacuated / in conflict
St. Hellens, 7919 affecte
1973, Heimaey 1976,La Soufriere 1977,Nyiragongo
Tempararily evacuated
Colima, 187 affected
Tun
1973
Ruiz: 31.000 affected
0%
Permanent resettled
Huila: 45.000 affected
Galeras: 8.235 affected
Dead victims
Injured / damaged
Displaced / disappeared
Permanent resettled
Tempararily evacuated
Not evacuated / in conflict
Cases from Colombia:
Displaced / disappeared
1993
100%
Ongoing, Tungurahua Ongoing, Galeras
Affected population
Nyiragongo, 1600 affected 1977 45000 affected 2002
Ruiz: 31.000 affected Galeras: 8.235 affected
2013
La Soufriere 360.000 affected
Colima, 187 affected
Source: This study
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Volcanic risk reduction still is a major worldwide issue, specially for developing countries. A practical and adaptable volcanic risk assessment framework has not been achieved yet.
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The case of Galeras volcano
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Florida (2118 people in risk)
Brice単o and others (639 people in risk)
Nari単o (454 people in risk)
Mapachico (1366 people in risk)
Genoy (3358 people in risk)
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La Florida 11.151 2.118
Nari単o 7.845 454
Genoy 3.358 Detailed case study
Growth trend Resettlement agenda
y
Threat Zone
Green environment Natives settlements Urban settlements
1 km2
Regional extent of the case study (8000 Ha : 80 Km2) Source: This study
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NATIONAL LEVEL ACADEMIA
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTISTS AND SCHOLARS
OTHER INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS
OSSO - NGO
NARIñO UNIVERSITY
INDIGENOUS COUNCIL GEOLOGICAL SERVICE
INDIGENOUS LEADERS
OTHER CIVILIANS:
VOLCANIC THREAT ARMY
THREAT OF EVICTION PROCESO GALERAS
RETAILERS YOUNGSTERS TEACHERS ELDERLY NEWCOMERS CHILDHOOD
LOCAL COMMUNITY COMMITTEE
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT LOCAL NEWS MEDIA
DISASTERS AUTHORITIES POLICE REGIONAL GOVERNMENT
MINISTRY OF HOUSING - FREE HOUSING POLICY
CITY/VILLAGE MAYORS
ORGANIZED LANDOWNERS AROUND “LA COCHA” LAGOON RESERVOIR
Source: This study
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Volcanologists declare 87.5 Km2 as high risk area
INDIGENOUS ‘Resettlement strategy is a good business for the government’
INGEOMINAS 1997
Government declares state of emergency at 4 communities
2005
2008 - today
*516 resettled by 2013
PEASANTS AND CIVILIANS ‘Investment is required the village might grow towardsthe shelter areas’
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Therefore...
RISK CANNOT BE REDUCED BASED ON A THREAT MAP ONLY (Risk Management principle)
IT IS UNKNOWN THE LEVEL OF RISK TO PEOPLE’S LIFE (Recognized by authorities) at the same t i m e . .. While
However...
RISK REGULATIONS HAVE STOPPED 10 YEARS OF LOCAL DEVELOPMENT (People demands)
RESETTLEMENT POLICY DISRUPTS LOCAL CULTURE AND SOCIAL NETWORKS (Scholars concern) A n d. . .
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From threat to risk Threat knowledge needs to be translated into risk awareness.
From risk to regional development
From regional development to local growth
Risk management can be part of a regional development strategy.
Given a new regional development framework, local communities can lead their own safe-growth processes.
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From threat to risk
A thorough risk assessment is a key component of an integrated spatial planning framework
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CAPRA (Central American probabilistic risk assessment methodology) SPECIFIC TOPICS STUDY AREA
THREAT
R=TxVxC EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
RISK MEASUREMENT
Where risk is a percentage, product of the consequences (C) vulnerabilities (V) and threats (T) associated with a given phenomenon (Bilal 2011).
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Threat (T)HOW TO BUILD A RISK MAP
MOVE
DON’T MOVE
BY OSSO CORPORATION:
SUSCEPTIBILITY THREAT (√) EXPOSITION VULNERABILITY RISK
GEOLOGIC / NATURAL PHENOMENON PROPERTIES AND INFRAESTRUCTURE PROPERTIES AND INFRAESTRUCTURE HUMAN AND MATERIAL LOSES
70% 40%
60%
High Threat
50%
Medium Threat Low Threat 1 km
Threat Map Source: Colombian Geological Service 1997
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Vulnerability (V)
Infraestructure on risk Safe Infraestructure 1 km
Vunerable Infraestructure Source: OSSO (NGO) 2010
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Consequences: potential human losses (C)
78.5%
21.1% 0.7%
Empty or already acquired plots
Low density (rural) plots High density (urban) plots
1 km 2 0km
10km
Inhabited Plots Source: Proceso Galeras 2013
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R=TxVxC : Step by step for one plot Plot within threat zone: T=1 High Threat Medium Threat Low Threat 1 km
Vulnerability: Flat roofs and closeness to vulnerable roads: V=0.80 5000 m straight distance from the crater f.Dist=0.63
#
Consequences: inhabited plot with moderate density: D=0.39 78.5%
Risk evaluation 1x(0.75/0.63)x0.39 =0.495
21.1% 0.7%
Empty or already acquired plots
Low density (rural) plots High density (urban) plots 1 km 2
0km
10km
# Risk Index
Risk Assessment output.
F-Risk (%) less than 1%
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Proposed Risk map (R=TxVxC)
# Risk Index
Risk Assessment output.
F-Risk (%) less than 1% 1%-8.5% 8.6%-15.9% 16.0%-23.5% 23.6%-31.9% 32.0%-41.5% 41.6%-50.9% 51.0%-60.9% 61.0%-81.5% More than 81.6
OSSO Infra. vulnerability.Assess. Severe
#
_crater
1 km
Proposed risk map Source: This study 2013
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Alberto Guevara’s house is at 50.1 % volcanic risk according to the proposed riskscale . Other options for him would be available if this method is implemented.
# Risk Index
Risk Assessment output.
F-Risk (%)
Plots
Less than 1%
Area (Km2) Economic loss
Population
2,862
58,641.22
€
432,348.20
68,355
1%-11,0%
895
1,571.50
€
6,545,121.10
10,863
11,1% - 21,1 %
358
166.72
€
4,584,149.01
3,432
21,2% - 31,2%
274
127.05
€
7,416,734.51
3,295
€
31,3% - 41,3%
182
20.88
3,269,318.56
1,092
41,4% - 51,49%
199
196.47
€ 20,120,119.19
4,636
51,5% - 61,51%
186
255.06
€ 27,741,811.80
5,720
61,52% - 71,6%
174
10.17
€
5,581,588.21
1,044
71,7% - 81,8%
38
2.18
€
1,388,303.77
228
41
2.31
€
1,982,584.08
246
60,993.56 € 79,062,078.43
98,911
than 81,9 % GreenMore environment
5,209 OSSO Infra. vulnerability.Assess.
Severe Natives settlements
#
_crater
Urban settlements 0 km
1 km2
14 km
Proposed risk map Source: This study 2013
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Risk assessment must constitute an informative tool for the community about the dynamic nature of volcanic risk and its tangible consequences.
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From risk to regional development
“Adequate development will automatically reduce the levels of relative or total risk.� (Lavell 2004)
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Pan-American Highway New Pan-American Paved Galeras ring road Tertiary roads Horse paths Green environment
Growth trend
Urban settlements Resettlement agenda
Indigenous council 0km
6 km
Threat Zone Source: This study
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Current situation
Proposal
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Current situation
Proposal
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Current situation
Proposal
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Current situation
Proposal
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[2]
[1]
[1]
[2]
[1] [2]
[3] [3]
[4]
[4] [4]
Indigenous territory Civilians’ nat. reservoir
[6]
Wildlife Sanctuary Park Rural / Park Road 1 Km2
[5] [5]
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Regional development strategy
Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km
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An integrated spatial planning approach not only restricts but also defines non restricted areas for growth.
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From regional development to local growth
“Risk Management constitutes a development policy “ Act 1523 - 2012 (New risk Management act)
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Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km
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Detailed case study: Genoy
Galeras Ring Road Secondary road Tertiary road 20 mts
100 mts
Source: IGAC 2010
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Detailed case study: Genoy
Built Private Public 100 X 100 (1 Ha)
--VERGEL. EVACUATION MEETING POINT FOR VOLCANIC ERUPTION---FORBIDDEN ACCESS TO INDIVIDUALS---PLEASE BRING SIGNED PERMIT TO GET IN---FOR YOUR SAFETY AND OUR TRANQUILITY, YOU ARE BEING RECORDED--
Source: This work
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Detailed case study: Genoy
72%
1% 9% 17%
Private open, mainly agriculture
Local Institutions Mixed use Public Space
Source: This work
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Detailed case study: Genoy
“We need workshops, health center, multiple court”
“Shelters are unsafe and in bad conditions”
“Now, elder guys don’t let us play football at the court”
2
1
1. Health center 2. Indigenous Major 3. School 4, Church 5. Grocery 6. Village hall 7. Police station 8. Indigenous house 9. Football court 10. Restaurant
3
7
5
6 8
4
9 10
Residential / Farming Institution commerce 20 X 20 mts.
“We are often visited by an university professor. She is organizing the artisans”
“there are people moving to religions other than catholicism”
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Detailed case study: Genoy Why don’t they use all that money to build houses for our ‘ARRIMADOS’ since they can’t build in the village ” 1. Health center 2. Indigenous Major ARRIMADO: [noun] a fami3. School ly without a house. -Usually 4, Church a young that cannot 5.family Grocery own a house andhall lives at 6. Village their parents forstation a period 7. Police of time8.undetermined. Indigenous house freerider 9. Football court 10. Restaurant
2
1
3
7
5
6 8
4
9 10
Residential / Farming Institution commerce 20 X 20 mts.
“They might send our ARRIMADOS near to the shelters, give them a house... that way we might consider evacuating”
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Participatory diagnosis allows to identify programmatic needs and planning priorities.
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Detailed case study: Genoy
Genoy’s Figures:
72%
1% 9% 17%
Private open, mainly agriculture
Total Gross Area:
33.98 Has
Total Area at High threat Total Area at Medium Threat
25.56 Has (77.3%) 8.70 Has (22.7&)
Total public areas Total built Total private open space
5.85 Has (17.6%) 3.27 Has (9.9%) 25.13 Has (76.0&)
Urban agricultural land Mixed use Civic institutions
24.78 Has (75.0%) 3.12 Has (9.4%) 0.51 Has (1.54%)
Local Institutions Mixed use Public Space
Local Institutions: 1. Health center 2. Indigenous Major 3. School 4, Church 5. Grocery 6. Village Major 7. Police station 8. Indigenous house 9. Football court 10. Restaurant Residential / Farming Commercial activity 20 mts
100 mts
7
Total population: 3358
2
1
3
5
6 8
4
9 10
What are the critical missing facilities, and what percentage of the community would they benefit if developed?: “Ateliers for artisans” “One more soccer field” “Better health center” “Common corn crops”
25% 50% 100% 74.%
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Detailed case study: Genoy
Built 50 X 50 (1/2 Ha)
New Plots Roads
Lands for new housing
Private - Agriculture 50 mts
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Year 0. Current conditions
Built 50 X 50 (1/2 Ha)
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Year 1-2. New Investments
Creek’s basin (dry) Built 50 X 50 (1/2 Ha)
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Year 1-2. New Investments
1 1
New health center
2
Sports arena
3
Participatory hall
New Roads
Lands for new housing
Private - Agriculture 50 mts
3 2
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Year 1-2. New Housing strategy
New Roads
Lands for new housing
Risk evaluation 50 mts
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Year 1-2. New Housing strategy
Roads
Lands for new housing
Private - Agriculture 50 mts
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Year 3-6. New Housing strategy
New Plots Roads
Lands for new housing
Private - Agriculture 50 mts
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Year 3-6. New Housing strategy
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Current situation
Proposal
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From parcells to blocks
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From parcels to blocks
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From parcels to blocks
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From parcels to blocks
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From parcels to blocks
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From progressive housing to progressive resilient housing
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From progressive housing to progressive resilient housing
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During “Minga”, food is collectively prepared by women from participating families.
Habitational functions can be reduced to a secondary function of a multiple space, only enabled when required
Building process can be done via “Minga” or spontaneous associations of neighbors collaborating.
Current transportation means can be organized to connecting the community with the new centrality.
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“Minga” can be used as a social carry on alternative uses of the available land, such as growing food.
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Potential scenario 1: Villages become towns Years 10 - 25
Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km
The volcano has not made destructive eruptions so far. The villages have grown safely outside the threat area. People built new risk resistent houses and buildings. Daytime activities as church, offices and commerce remain at the original centrality. Some elderly people are still there. Couple of times a year they move to their relative’s homes to preventively evacuating.
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Potential scenario 2: Villages moved away Years 10 - 25
Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km
The volcano erupted and destroyed one village. Most of the people evacuated preventively to the new centrality at relatives and friends houses and no fatalities occurred. The new centralities kept on growing faster than they were doing before the disaster. Other villages at the threat zone have voluntary resettled during those years.
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Supporting projects
Case 1: Flooding threat zone along covered river. 1
Av. Panamericana R. Mijitayo (covered)
2
Volcanic threat 100 X 100 (1 Ha) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8
4
Mariana University Arts Museum Culture museum New shopping mall Public tech school High School Filipense School Sports Area (non built stadium)
3
5
Risk area defined on a land ownership basis
7
6
8
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, USDA, US
Year 0. current conditions Public park Public-privat. facility Agricult. or unused der build ings
mix use
140
0m
ts. u n
100 mts.
The original river path would be flooded in mudslide case er
00
17
Year 1-3. Water road 1.Redesign 2.Reinforce 3.Keep unbuilt 4.Acquire/Remove 100 X 100 (1 Ha)
Opening the river along the road reduces flood risk
Year 5 - 6: community aware about floods
Sewage within the risk area will be improved.
ts]
m
d un
.M Av
o ay
ijit
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Supporting projects
Indigenous territory Civilians’ nat. reservoir Wildlife Sanctuary Park Rural / Park Road 1 Km2
Wildlife unusual activity might alert about changes in volcanic activity
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From a conflict to an opportunity...
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Therefore...
RISK CANNOT BE REDUCED BASED ON A THREAT MAP ONLY (Risk Management principle)
IT IS UNKNOWN THE LEVEL OF RISK TO PEOPLE’S LIFE (Recognized by authorities) at the same t i m e . .. While
However...
RISK REGULATIONS HAVE STOPPED 10 YEARS OF LOCAL DEVELOPMENT (People demands)
RESETTLEMENT POLICY DISRUPTS LOCAL CULTURE AND SOCIAL NETWORKS (Scholars concern) A n d. . .
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Volcanologists declare 87.5 Km2 as high risk area
INDIGENOUS ‘Resettlement strategy is a good business for the government’
INGEOMINAS 1997
Government declares state of emergency at 4 communities
2005
2008 - today
*516 resettled by 2013
PEASANTS AND CIVILIANS ‘Investment is required the village might grow towardsthe shelter areas’
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PRINCIPLE OF TERRITORY
PRINCIPLE OF LIFE
PRINCIPLE OF DEMOCRACY
PRINCIPLE OF CULTURE
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CULTURE Piecemeal progressive construction Rural way of life
LIFE Reduced volcanic risk Opportunities to Arrimados
TERRITORY Growth rather than Resettlement
DEMOCRACY Urban program defined by the community
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Summary of conclusions
• Assessing volcanic risk as a component of the territory leads to build a common language among actors about the dynamic nature of risk and its tangible consequences. • Spatial planning regulations need to be adapted for high natural risk cases. An integrated spatial planning approach not only restricts but also defines non restricted areas for growth. • In order to achieve an adaptable volcanic risk framework, risk reduction strategies must integrate vernacular knowledge of territory in each case (Case NASA-KIWE) • Human settlements are living organisms. They need little or no external input to continue growth.
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Further research questions
• How to steer the urban growth of a 400.000 people city such as Pasto to the opposite direction of the volcano? • How to integrate traditional construction techniques with resilient methods for volcanic contexts? • How to turn a volcanic environment / wildlife sanctuary into the core of a regional scale public space network?
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From threat to growth A regional development strategy for volcanic risk management at the Galeras region, Colombia.