From threat to Growth

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“We, with our ancestors’ memories, have lived with papa Galeras and we are originals of this land. Instead of inviting us to evacuate elsewhere or to the city, come and invite us to strengthen our territory. Thus, instead of a ‘disaster area’, this land can keep being a life area and a development area“ Manifesto of May 23rd, by Urcunina’s sons, indigenous communities settled at the Galeras slopes.

Genoy, May 23rd 2009

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From threat to growth A regional development strategy for volcanic risk management at the Galeras region, Colombia.

P4 :: J.F. Tascon Valencia: :4186702

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-TO LIVE AND TO DIE HERE. THAT IS OUR DECISION. STOP RESETTLEMENT ACT NOW!!

March 19th 2013. Protesters in Genoy and Mapachico.

Source: Corregimiento Mapachico - facebook fan page.

5000

0

URBAN POPULATION

2008

1997 2005 2009

people still divided

2010

Regional economic crisis.

2006

Universities reaction: design competition

2005

ponzi scheme crisis

1993

indigenous council created communities divided

1997

Riots: People burn risk mangemnt plan

seismic activity

12 Million â‚Ź released for individual resettlements

12 Million â‚Ź released for resettlement

RURAL POPULATION High Vulnerabilty Zone is defined

10000

High Vulnerabilty Zone is defined

1988

1993

15 people died in volcanic eruption

1989

15 people died in volcanic eruption

scientifics confirm reactivation process

15000

scientifics confirm reactivation process

the big one...

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eruption

smoke+ ash +inminent explosion

Urban sprawl towards volcano sopes

Micro seismic activity

no activity

2012

2013

Source: This study

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Sandona 50.000

Caribean Region

La Florida 11.151 2.118

Nari単o 7.845 454

Genoy 3.358

Medellin Andean Region

Bogota Orinoquia Region

Cali

Consaca 12.693

Bogota

Galeras Volcano and Wildlife sanctuary

Pasto Quito (ECU)

Amazon Region

Guayaquil (ECU)

Yacuanquer 10.012 Population in regional scale : 430.702 People to resettle (IPC 2008): 7.935

Pasto The main city in the slopes of the volcano is Pasto with more than 400000 people which is a regional node at the border with Ecuador.

Genoy La Florida Nari単o

Pasto 411.706 2.005

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volcanoes

Volcanoes in Colombian-Ecuadorian Region

Mt. Redoubt Mt. St. Hellens 57 losses in 1980

Caribean Region

Andean Region

Mount Pelee 28000 losses in 1902 Ruiz (COL) 23000 losses in 1985

Huaynaputina (PER) world catastrophe in 1600

Bogota

Mt. Ruiz 23000 losses in 1985

Pacific Region

Mt. Galeras 10 losses in 1993 Quito

Most deadly eruptions in history.

The Pacfic ring of fire is a 40.000 km horseshoe shape where a large number of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur in the basin of the Pacific Ocean

Orinoquia Region

= 100 fatalities

Amazon Region

Mt Tambora: 92000 losses in 1815 Krakatoa: 36000 losses in 1883 Mount Pelee: 28000 losses in 1902 Mt. Ruiz: 23000 losses in 1985 Vesuvious: 19000 losses in AD 79

source: http://www.loveinfographics.com

Source: This study

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0% 1973

1983

1993

Affected population

100%

1973, Heimaey 1976,La Soufriere 1977,Nyiragongo 1980, St Hellens 1982, Galunggung 1985, Nevado del Ruiz

Heimaey, 5300 affected

St. Hellens, 7919 affected

1991, Unzen 1994, Nevado del Huila

Unzen, 500 affected

2002, Nyiragongo 2005, Colima 2008, Chaiten

2003

Cases from Colombia: Huila: 45.000 affected

Tungurahua 25.000 affected Galunggung 200.000 affected

Dead victims Injured / damaged Chaiten 4.200 affected

Ongoing, Tungurahua Ongoing, Galeras 2013

1991, Unzen 1994, Nevado del Huila

2002, Nyiragongo 2005, Colima 2008, Chaiten 2003

1983

1980, St Hellens 1982, Galunggung 1985, Nevado del Ruiz

Not evacuated / in conflict

St. Hellens, 7919 affecte

1973, Heimaey 1976,La Soufriere 1977,Nyiragongo

Tempararily evacuated

Colima, 187 affected

Tun

1973

Ruiz: 31.000 affected

0%

Permanent resettled

Huila: 45.000 affected

Galeras: 8.235 affected

Dead victims

Injured / damaged

Displaced / disappeared

Permanent resettled

Tempararily evacuated

Not evacuated / in conflict

Cases from Colombia:

Displaced / disappeared

1993

100%

Ongoing, Tungurahua Ongoing, Galeras

Affected population

Nyiragongo, 1600 affected 1977 45000 affected 2002

Ruiz: 31.000 affected Galeras: 8.235 affected

2013

La Soufriere 360.000 affected

Colima, 187 affected

Source: This study

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Volcanic risk reduction still is a major worldwide issue, specially for developing countries.

A practical and adaptable volcanic risk assessment framework has not been achieved yet.

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The case of Galeras volcano

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Florida (2118 people in risk)

Brice単o and others (639 people in risk)

Nari単o (454 people in risk)

Mapachico (1366 people in risk)

Genoy (3358 people in risk)

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La Florida 11.151 2.118

Nari単o 7.845 454

Genoy 3.358 Detailed case study

Growth trend Resettlement agenda

y

Threat Zone

Green environment Natives settlements Urban settlements

1 km2

Regional extent of the case study (8000 Ha : 80 Km2) Source: This study

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NATIONAL LEVEL ACADEMIA

INTERNATIONAL SCIENTISTS AND SCHOLARS

OTHER INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS

OSSO - NGO

NARIñO UNIVERSITY

INDIGENOUS COUNCIL GEOLOGICAL SERVICE

INDIGENOUS LEADERS

OTHER CIVILIANS:

VOLCANIC THREAT ARMY

THREAT OF EVICTION PROCESO GALERAS

RETAILERS YOUNGSTERS TEACHERS ELDERLY NEWCOMERS CHILDHOOD

LOCAL COMMUNITY COMMITTEE

NATIONAL GOVERNMENT LOCAL NEWS MEDIA

DISASTERS AUTHORITIES POLICE REGIONAL GOVERNMENT

MINISTRY OF HOUSING - FREE HOUSING POLICY

CITY/VILLAGE MAYORS

ORGANIZED LANDOWNERS AROUND “LA COCHA” LAGOON RESERVOIR

Source: This study

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Volcanologists declare 87.5 Km2 as high risk area

INDIGENOUS ‘Resettlement strategy is a good business for the government’

INGEOMINAS 1997

Government declares state of emergency at 4 communities

2005

2008 - today

*516 resettled by 2013

PEASANTS AND CIVILIANS ‘Investment is required the village might grow towardsthe shelter areas’

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Therefore...

RISK CANNOT BE REDUCED BASED ON A THREAT MAP ONLY (Risk Management principle)

IT IS UNKNOWN THE LEVEL OF RISK TO PEOPLE’S LIFE (Recognized by authorities) at the same t i m e . ..

While

However...

RISK REGULATIONS HAVE STOPPED 10 YEARS OF LOCAL DEVELOPMENT (People demands)

RESETTLEMENT POLICY DISRUPTS LOCAL CULTURE AND SOCIAL NETWORKS (Scholars concern) A n d. . .

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From threat to risk Threat knowledge needs to be translated into risk awareness.

From risk to regional development

From regional development to local growth

Risk management can be part of a regional development strategy.

Given a new regional development framework, local communities can lead their own safe-growth processes.

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From threat to risk

A thorough risk assessment is a key component of an integrated spatial planning framework

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CAPRA (Central American probabilistic risk assessment methodology) SPECIFIC TOPICS STUDY AREA

THREAT

R=TxVxC EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

RISK MEASUREMENT

Where risk is a percentage, product of the consequences (C) vulnerabilities (V) and threats (T) associated with a given phenomenon (Bilal 2011).

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Threat (T)HOW TO BUILD A RISK MAP

MOVE

DON’T MOVE

BY OSSO CORPORATION:

SUSCEPTIBILITY THREAT (√) EXPOSITION VULNERABILITY RISK

GEOLOGIC / NATURAL PHENOMENON PROPERTIES AND INFRAESTRUCTURE PROPERTIES AND INFRAESTRUCTURE HUMAN AND MATERIAL LOSES

70% 40%

60%

High Threat

50%

Medium Threat Low Threat 1 km

Threat Map Source: Colombian Geological Service 1997

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Vulnerability (V)

Infraestructure on risk Safe Infraestructure 1 km

Vunerable Infraestructure Source: OSSO (NGO) 2010

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Consequences: potential human losses (C)

78.5%

21.1% 0.7%

Empty or already acquired plots

Low density (rural) plots High density (urban) plots

1 km 2 0km

10km

Inhabited Plots Source: Proceso Galeras 2013

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R=TxVxC : Step by step for one plot Plot within threat zone: T=1 High Threat Medium Threat Low Threat 1 km

Vulnerability: Flat roofs and closeness to vulnerable roads: V=0.80 5000 m straight distance from the crater f.Dist=0.63

#

Consequences: inhabited plot with moderate density: D=0.39 78.5%

Risk evaluation 1x(0.75/0.63)x0.39 =0.495

21.1% 0.7%

Empty or already acquired plots

Low density (rural) plots High density (urban) plots 1 km 2

0km

10km

# Risk Index

Risk Assessment output.

F-Risk (%) less than 1%

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Proposed Risk map (R=TxVxC)

# Risk Index

Risk Assessment output.

F-Risk (%) less than 1% 1%-8.5% 8.6%-15.9% 16.0%-23.5% 23.6%-31.9% 32.0%-41.5% 41.6%-50.9% 51.0%-60.9% 61.0%-81.5% More than 81.6

OSSO Infra. vulnerability.Assess.

Severe

#

_crater

1 km

Proposed risk map Source: This study 2013

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Alberto Guevara’s house is at 50.1 % volcanic risk according to the proposed riskscale . Other options for him would be available if this method is implemented.

# Risk Index

Risk Assessment output.

F-Risk (%)

Plots

Less than 1%

Area (Km2) Economic loss

Population

2,862

58,641.22

€

432,348.20

68,355

1%-11,0%

895

1,571.50

€

6,545,121.10

10,863

11,1% - 21,1 %

358

166.72

€

4,584,149.01

3,432

21,2% - 31,2%

274

127.05

€

7,416,734.51

3,295

€

31,3% - 41,3%

182

20.88

3,269,318.56

1,092

41,4% - 51,49%

199

196.47

€ 20,120,119.19

4,636

51,5% - 61,51%

186

255.06

€ 27,741,811.80

5,720

61,52% - 71,6%

174

10.17

€

5,581,588.21

1,044

71,7% - 81,8%

38

2.18

€

1,388,303.77

228

41

2.31

€

1,982,584.08

246

60,993.56 € 79,062,078.43

98,911

than 81,9 % GreenMore environment

5,209 OSSO Infra. vulnerability.Assess.

Severe Natives settlements

#

_crater

Urban settlements 0 km

1 km2

14 km

Proposed risk map Source: This study 2013

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Risk assessment must constitute an informative tool for the community about the dynamic nature of volcanic risk and its tangible consequences.

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From risk to regional development

“Adequate development will automatically reduce the levels of relative or total risk.� (Lavell 2004)

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Pan-American Highway New Pan-American Paved Galeras ring road Tertiary roads Horse paths Green environment

Growth trend

Urban settlements Resettlement agenda

Indigenous council 0km

6 km

Threat Zone Source: This study

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Current situation

Proposal

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Current situation

Proposal

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Current situation

Proposal

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Current situation

Proposal

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[2]

[1]

[1]

[2]

[1] [2]

[3] [3]

[4]

[4] [4]

Indigenous territory Civilians’ nat. reservoir

[6]

Wildlife Sanctuary Park Rural / Park Road 1 Km2

[5] [5]

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Regional development strategy

Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km

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An integrated spatial planning approach not only restricts but also defines non restricted areas for growth.

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From regional development to local growth

“Risk Management constitutes a development policy “ Act 1523 - 2012 (New risk Management act)

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Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km

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Detailed case study: Genoy

Galeras Ring Road Secondary road Tertiary road 20 mts

100 mts

Source: IGAC 2010

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Detailed case study: Genoy

Built Private Public 100 X 100 (1 Ha)

--VERGEL. EVACUATION MEETING POINT FOR VOLCANIC ERUPTION---FORBIDDEN ACCESS TO INDIVIDUALS---PLEASE BRING SIGNED PERMIT TO GET IN---FOR YOUR SAFETY AND OUR TRANQUILITY, YOU ARE BEING RECORDED--

Source: This work

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Detailed case study: Genoy

72%

1% 9% 17%

Private open, mainly agriculture

Local Institutions Mixed use Public Space

Source: This work

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Detailed case study: Genoy

“We need workshops, health center, multiple court”

“Shelters are unsafe and in bad conditions”

“Now, elder guys don’t let us play football at the court”

2

1

1. Health center 2. Indigenous Major 3. School 4, Church 5. Grocery 6. Village hall 7. Police station 8. Indigenous house 9. Football court 10. Restaurant

3

7

5

6 8

4

9 10

Residential / Farming Institution commerce 20 X 20 mts.

“We are often visited by an university professor. She is organizing the artisans”

“there are people moving to religions other than catholicism”

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Detailed case study: Genoy Why don’t they use all that money to build houses for our ‘ARRIMADOS’ since they can’t build in the village ” 1. Health center 2. Indigenous Major ARRIMADO: [noun] a fami3. School ly without a house. -Usually 4, Church a young that cannot 5.family Grocery own a house andhall lives at 6. Village their parents forstation a period 7. Police of time8.undetermined.

Indigenous house freerider 9. Football court 10. Restaurant

2

1

3

7

5

6 8

4

9 10

Residential / Farming Institution commerce 20 X 20 mts.

“They might send our ARRIMADOS near to the shelters, give them a house... that way we might consider evacuating”

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Participatory diagnosis allows to identify programmatic needs and planning priorities.

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Detailed case study: Genoy

Genoy’s Figures:

72%

1% 9% 17%

Private open, mainly agriculture

Total Gross Area:

33.98 Has

Total Area at High threat Total Area at Medium Threat

25.56 Has (77.3%) 8.70 Has (22.7&)

Total public areas Total built Total private open space

5.85 Has (17.6%) 3.27 Has (9.9%) 25.13 Has (76.0&)

Urban agricultural land Mixed use Civic institutions

24.78 Has (75.0%) 3.12 Has (9.4%) 0.51 Has (1.54%)

Local Institutions Mixed use Public Space

Local Institutions: 1. Health center 2. Indigenous Major 3. School 4, Church 5. Grocery 6. Village Major 7. Police station 8. Indigenous house 9. Football court 10. Restaurant Residential / Farming Commercial activity 20 mts

100 mts

7

Total population: 3358

2

1

3

5

6 8

4

9 10

What are the critical missing facilities, and what percentage of the community would they benefit if developed?: “Ateliers for artisans” “One more soccer field” “Better health center” “Common corn crops”

25% 50% 100% 74.%

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Detailed case study: Genoy

Built 50 X 50 (1/2 Ha)

New Plots Roads

Lands for new housing

Private - Agriculture 50 mts

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Year 0. Current conditions

Built 50 X 50 (1/2 Ha)

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Year 1-2. New Investments

Creek’s basin (dry) Built 50 X 50 (1/2 Ha)

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Year 1-2. New Investments

1 1

New health center

2

Sports arena

3

Participatory hall

New Roads

Lands for new housing

Private - Agriculture 50 mts

3 2

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Year 1-2. New Housing strategy

New Roads

Lands for new housing

Risk evaluation 50 mts

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Year 1-2. New Housing strategy

Roads

Lands for new housing

Private - Agriculture 50 mts

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Year 3-6. New Housing strategy

New Plots Roads

Lands for new housing

Private - Agriculture 50 mts

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Year 3-6. New Housing strategy

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Current situation

Proposal

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From parcells to blocks

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From parcels to blocks

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From parcels to blocks

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From parcels to blocks

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From parcels to blocks

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From progressive housing to progressive resilient housing

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From progressive housing to progressive resilient housing

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During “Minga”, food is collectively prepared by women from participating families.

Habitational functions can be reduced to a secondary function of a multiple space, only enabled when required

Building process can be done via “Minga” or spontaneous associations of neighbors collaborating.

Current transportation means can be organized to connecting the community with the new centrality.

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“Minga” can be used as a social carry on alternative uses of the available land, such as growing food.

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Potential scenario 1: Villages become towns Years 10 - 25

Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km

The volcano has not made destructive eruptions so far. The villages have grown safely outside the threat area. People built new risk resistent houses and buildings. Daytime activities as church, offices and commerce remain at the original centrality. Some elderly people are still there. Couple of times a year they move to their relative’s homes to preventively evacuating.

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Potential scenario 2: Villages moved away Years 10 - 25

Area of study Panamerican Highway Secondary road Prohibited new construction Safe-growth area for villages High risk Medium risk Indigenous reservoir Peasants common land Wildlife sancturay new area Current wildlife sanctuary Urban unmodified Agricultural /productive 1 km

The volcano erupted and destroyed one village. Most of the people evacuated preventively to the new centrality at relatives and friends houses and no fatalities occurred. The new centralities kept on growing faster than they were doing before the disaster. Other villages at the threat zone have voluntary resettled during those years.

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Supporting projects

Case 1: Flooding threat zone along covered river.

1

Av. Panamericana R. Mijitayo (covered)

2

Volcanic threat 100 X 100 (1 Ha) 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8

4

Mariana University Arts Museum Culture museum New shopping mall Public tech school High School Filipense School Sports Area (non built stadium)

3

5

Risk area defined on a land ownership basis

7

6

8

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, USDA, US

Year 0. current conditions Public park Public-privat. facility Agricult. or unused der build ings

mix use

140

0m

ts. u n

100 mts.

The original river path would be flooded in mudslide case er

00

17

Year 1-3. Water road 1.Redesign 2.Reinforce 3.Keep unbuilt 4.Acquire/Remove 100 X 100 (1 Ha)

Opening the river along the road reduces flood risk

Year 5 - 6: community aware about floods

Sewage within the risk area will be improved.

ts]

m

d un

.M Av

o ay

ijit

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Supporting projects

Indigenous territory Civilians’ nat. reservoir Wildlife Sanctuary Park Rural / Park Road 1 Km2

Wildlife unusual activity might alert about changes in volcanic activity

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From a conflict to an opportunity...

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Therefore...

RISK CANNOT BE REDUCED BASED ON A THREAT MAP ONLY (Risk Management principle)

IT IS UNKNOWN THE LEVEL OF RISK TO PEOPLE’S LIFE (Recognized by authorities) at the same t i m e . ..

While

However...

RISK REGULATIONS HAVE STOPPED 10 YEARS OF LOCAL DEVELOPMENT (People demands)

RESETTLEMENT POLICY DISRUPTS LOCAL CULTURE AND SOCIAL NETWORKS (Scholars concern) A n d. . .

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Volcanologists declare 87.5 Km2 as high risk area

INDIGENOUS ‘Resettlement strategy is a good business for the government’

INGEOMINAS 1997

Government declares state of emergency at 4 communities

2005

2008 - today

*516 resettled by 2013

PEASANTS AND CIVILIANS ‘Investment is required the village might grow towardsthe shelter areas’

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PRINCIPLE OF TERRITORY

PRINCIPLE OF LIFE

PRINCIPLE OF DEMOCRACY

PRINCIPLE OF CULTURE

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CULTURE Piecemeal progressive construction Rural way of life

LIFE Reduced volcanic risk Opportunities to Arrimados

TERRITORY Growth rather than Resettlement

DEMOCRACY Urban program defined by the community

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Summary of conclusions

• Assessing volcanic risk as a component of the territory leads to build a common language among actors about the dynamic nature of risk and its tangible consequences.

• Spatial planning regulations need to be adapted for high natural risk cases. An integrated spatial planning approach not only restricts but also defines non restricted areas for growth.

• In order to achieve an adaptable volcanic risk framework, risk reduction strategies must integrate vernacular knowledge of territory in each case (Case NASA-KIWE) • Human settlements are living organisms. They need little or no external input to continue growth.

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Further research questions

• How to steer the urban growth of a 400.000 people city such as Pasto to the opposite direction of the volcano?

• How to integrate traditional construction techniques with resilient methods for volcanic contexts?

• How to turn a volcanic environment / wildlife sanctuary into the core of a regional scale public space network?

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From threat to growth A regional development strategy for volcanic risk management at the Galeras region, Colombia.