![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/93e33217f2108eea3f918800b7ef5976.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
21 minute read
FEED MARKETS ON EDGE AND VOLATILITY HIGH: FEEDSTUFFS, GRAINS & OILSEEDS TRADES
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/483edb2cc20bb802d900391c97a8ab4f.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
SGS Secured Document – protecting the commodity industry against document fraud
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/539f0ac3a92ad9922605991e209d2e98.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/de250c22a7c34627c8b90e42ac2656af.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
Fraudulent documents are a major concern across the commodity industry due to the large quantities of commodities being moved, strict regulations that must be adhered to, and the multimillion-dollar contracts involved, writes Frederico Stewart, Head of Business Solutions and Market Intelligence at SGS
This situation is made even more challenging by complex supply chains that often span several nations, as well as the endless number of parties and contractors involved in every transaction.
Sophisticated malware software has made validating the authenticity of documents increasingly challenging. As personal signatures can no longer be relied upon to safeguard against falsification, how can we guarantee the authenticity of reports and certificates that testify to the integrity and quality of commodities?
As a solution, SGS has launched SGS Secured Document — a blockchain-based registration system that gives users secure access to a document’s history, enabling the verification and authentication of its origin.
SGS Secured Document is powered by Trakk, a tool developed by Komgo that provides a secure network to register, trace and authenticate digital documents. Tried and tested in the global banking and trading ecosystem, Trakk makes it easier to identify fraud by building a unique and immutable audit trial behind every document.
BLOCKCHAIN — HOW SGS SECURED DOCUMENT GUARANTEES AUTHENTICITY The SGS Secured Document process utilizes blockchain technology to generate an accurate audit trail for a document. Blockchain technology is most well known for recording digital transactions; however, the secure nature of the technology also makes it ideal for validating and authenticating the origin of e-documents. In short, a blockchain acts as a digital ledger of transactions that is duplicated and distributed across the entire network of computer systems on the blockchain.
Using blockchain to track a document creates a unique, time-stamped and encrypted transaction record that enables users to see a document’s origin and its subsequent pathway. Once an SGS expert signs a document, their activities are registered in real time on the SGS Secured Document platform. While the underlying technology of our solution may sound complex, its everyday use couldn’t be easier. Documents can be verified simply by dragging and dropping the PDF file into a widget on the SGS website, or directly in your email inbox via the Trakk plug-in feature.
REDUCED OPERATIONAL RISK All stages of the supply chain are at risk of document fraud, including commodity inspection and testing certificates. Using a blockchain-based system like SGS Secured Document enables companies to reduce operational risk by protecting against fraud, increasing the efficiency of the audit process and building trust amongst customers. SGS guarantees that documents can be trusted, as the blockchain ensures documents cannot be duplicated, altered or falsified.
Additionally, the Trakk software provides an all-in-one tool that raises alerts and detects potential fraud sooner in the process. Crucially for the end customer, secure documentation builds trust as the supply chain can be validated. As technology and cyber threats become more advanced, it’s more important than ever to protect documentation against falsification, shielding our customers throughout the supply chain.
Feed markets on edge, volatility high
feedstuffs, grains & oilseeds trades
The global outlook has deteriorated markedly throughout 2022 amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and the lingering Covid-19 pandemic. *Soaring food and energy prices are eroding real incomes, triggering a global cost-of-living crisis, particularly for the most vulnerable groups. Growth in the world’s three largest economies-the US, China and the EU is weakening, with significant spill-over to other countries. At the same time, rising government borrowing costs and large capital outflows are exacerbating fiscal and balance of payment pressures in many developing countries. The United Nations (UN) forecast a substantial downward revision to the global economy, projected to grow between 2.5 and 2.8% in 2022.
Grains and oilseed markets remain
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/74622e007711249416474f94090ee847.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
Maria Cappuccio
GLOBAL FEEDSTUFFS-PRODUCTION, USE, FEED & STOCKS 2021/22-2022/23 (MT)
Prod Prod Use Use Feed Feed Trade Trade Stocks Stocks 21/22 22/23 21/22 22/23 21/22 22/23 21/22 22/23 21/22 22/23 Wheat 780 784 795 791 161 155 205 208 276 269 Coarse grains 1,506 1,464 1,490 1,473 912 906 238 227 339 330 Total Grains 2,286 2,248 2,285 2,264 1,073 1,061 443 435 615 599 Oilseeds 602 645 *511 *532 **339 **351 178 197 108 119
Source: IGC/USDA-Prod major feedstuffs-mainly harvested Jul-Dec/Local Marketing years *Oilseed crush; **Oil meals feed use-excludes fishmeal
susceptible to bouts of extreme volatility. The unprovoked Russian war in Ukraine continues to exacerbate the global food security crisis, with high and volatile energy, food, feed and fertilizer prices, restrictive trade policies and supply chain disruptions. The partial re-opening of Ukraine's Black Sea ports backed by the UN relieved pressure from global food markets by providing a corridor for grain exports from Ukraine. Rising tensions could sharply escalate the war and disrupt Black Sea shipments again. Persistent drought in some northern hemisphere countriesincluding the US, EU and China, adversely affected yields for wheat and coarse grains, expected to tighten global corn supplies. Looking ahead, geopolitics, weather and southern hemisphere crops, critical to bolster global food and feed supplies. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) preliminary forecast for wheat and coarse grains pegged global output at 2.25bn/t in 2022/23.
WAR AND DROUGHT CUT FEED SUPPLIES IN 2022/23 Global wheat output at 784mt (million tonnes) is marginally increased due to better wheat crops for Russia recovery in Canada, the US and in some other countries, partially offset by a drought-reduced EU wheat crop. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wheat and coarse grain output has been significantly reduced. Global coarse grains are forecast lower at 1.46bn/t, due to exceptional dry conditions that mostly affected corn output in the US and in the EU. High soybean prices supported by demand for food, feed and renewable biofuels and soaring fertilizer prices encouraged many farmers to favour less-fertilizer-intensive crops, such as soybeans in 2022/23. Soybean acreage in the US and South America increased, with the global oilseed crop pegged at a record 645mt.
FEED USE OF OIL MEALS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2022/23 Overall global consumption of wheat and coarse grains is forecast to fall by 21mt to 2.26bn/t. Wheat for feed use is forecast lower at 155mt, more feed wheat use in Russia, Ukraine, offset by less feed wheat in the EU and a sharp fall in The Port of Odesa, Ukraine. TRADE & COMMODITIES
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/703c6b7be09baa356df95b17962fe95d.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/6b09225c61feb0bf868b39711983570a.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
China by 5mt to 30mt, Covid-19 restrictions/lockdowns impacted demand, while higher wheat prices encouraged a switch to other feed ingredients. For coarse grains feed use is expected to fall by 6mt to 906mt with more corn and barley fed and less sorghum this year. With increased oilseed supplies anticipated, feed use of oil meals is expected to rise to a record 351mt in 2022/23.
TRADE IN OILSEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 2022/23
Global trade in wheat and coarse grains is projected to fall by 8mt to 435mt in 2022/23 due to slow demand and higher prices. A small increase in trade for wheat 208mt offset by an 11mt cut in coarse grains to 227mt, with combined global stocks of wheat and coarse grains expected to fall to 599mt. Tight stocks, especially for corn are anticipated to support prices for the remainder of the season. Trade in oilseeds is anticipated to rise by 19mt to 197mt with global stocks increased to 119mt.
GLOBAL WHEAT HARVEST FORECAST AT 784MT
Global wheat harvest in 2022/23 is EU
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 123 139 127 138 132 UK 14 16 10 15 15 Other Europe 5 4 4 4 4 CIS Baltic’s 123 129 139 134 139 N & C America 87 89 88 70 87 S America 29 29 28 34 32 N East Asia 39 43 43 35 37 F East Asia 264 272 277 283 277 Africa 29 26 25 30 27 Oceanic 18 15 33 37 34 Total 731 762 774 780 784
Source: FAO, USDA, IGC trade-totals may not add due to rounding
GLOBAL WHEAT SUPPLY & DEMAND 2018-2022/2 (MT)
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Production 731 762 774 780 784 Consumption 734 746 782 795 791 Trade 178 195 199 205 208 Stocks 283 298 291 276 269 of which China 138 150 144 142 144 Key exporters * 71 62 57 63 57
Sources: IGC, USDA-Production-mainly harvested Jul-Dec/Local marketing years *Argentina, Australia, Canada, US, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/29395519f15812f7b4c162e6fa69f240.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/29297a8b08fd484dcad35047b1fcf9fa.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
Soyabeans and corn growing side by side. TRADE & COMMODITIES
provisionally forecast at 784mt, though likely to be revised higher. Recovery in wheat output mainly in Canada 35mt, Russia 91mt (revised c.95–99mt) and the US 49mt bolstered output, while searing drought affected several countries in the EU that led to a smaller wheat crop of 132mt — France is expected to increase acreage in the new season by relaxing rules on crop rotation and mandatory fallow. By contrast floods cut India’s crop by 7mt to 103mt. The Russian invasion reduced Ukraine’s wheat crop from 33mt to 21mt as farmers could only harvest 4.6m/ha compared to 6.7m/ha in the previous year. Ukraine’s Agrarian Council (UAC) believes farmers may shrink the winter grain area from 6m/ha to 3.8m/ha due to a rising costs of seeds and fuel combined with low selling prices. Longer term, the pace of recovery of Ukraine’s agriculture influenced by, the increase in hostilities, extent of the destruction to infrastructure, labour disruption and the ability to harvest, store and export grain.
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO AFFECT ARGENTINE WHEAT Argentina’s main grain producing areas are facing the driest conditions not seen for thirty years. Lack of rain and continued dry conditions impacted wheat plantings and its early development. The Rosario Grains Exchange, estimates the planted area for wheat at 6.1m/ha and confirmed some planted areas have been abandoned — reports indicate that 42% of the crop is in a poor condition. Wheat output has been revised lower to c.16.5–17.5mt with harvest expected to begin in late October/November.
UPBEAT FORECAST FOR AUSTRALIA’S WHEAT The wheat crops have excellent yield potential heading into spring following a strong start in most cropping regions and above-average winter rainfall, particularly in eastern states. Abares forecast wheat production at 32.2mt in 2022/23, the second-highest wheat harvest on record. Heavy rainfall in Queensland and large parts of New South Wales caused waterlogging issues in some regions experiencing ongoing wet conditions, delaying the planting of winter crops. The possibility of a wet spring could interrupt harvest and negatively impact grain quality in some regions.
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/037e918eb0ed3df5d27a6f985ca9c050.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
REDUCED ACCESS SUPPORTS HIGHER GLOBAL WHEAT PRICES Since July, the agreement referred to as the ‘Black Sea Initiative’ brokered by the UN, made it possible to ship Ukraine’s exports of cereals, coarse grains, oilseeds-meals and oils, via a designated corridor to Black Sea ports. According to the UN this is working with close to 5mt being shipped having either arrived at their destinations or enroute. The agreement is in place until November, but rising tensions suggest there may be limited scope for it to be renewed. Ukraine’s continued logistical challenges (access to farmland, grain storage capacity, freight insurance and the availability of farm inputs and labour) is expected to limit the availability of their wheat on the world market, leading to higher wheat prices. The uncertainties regarding production and exports from Ukraine, may continue to be a source of volatility in the short-term.
MOROCCO, TURKEY AND INDONESIA INCREASE WHEAT IMPORTS Increased imports into Morocco 7.5mt due to prolonged and widespread drought, Indonesia 11.2mt for food and feed, the EU 5.5mt due to drought and in some other countries, increased global trade to 208mt. With demand for wheat outpacing supply, wheat stocks are drawn lower to 269mt (world 125mt, China 144mt), stocks in key major exporting countries to fall to 57mt.
RUSSIAN WHEAT TRADES BELOW COMPETITORS Wheat prices expected to remain strong given the uncertain outlook for the agreement to keep open the three Ukraine ports for exports. Demand for wheat in
price-sensitive markets in Africa, the Middle East and South-East Asia has been strong. Despite finance restrictions and higher freight costs Russian wheat has been trading below key competitors' since harvest-with exports pegged at 42mt. Exports from Canada have recovered to 26mt, US 23mt, EU 33.5mt and Ukraine11mt in 2022/23. Chicago wheat futures fell on strong supply soft demand and a surging US dollar CBOT Wheat SRW Contract Dec ‘22 closed-$8.60/bu ($315.96/t-16 Sept ’22). EU FOB Rouen ($340/t -16 Sept ’22); UK Feed Wheat Futures Contract Nov ’22 closed ($297.66/t-8 Sept ’22).
ARGENTINE CORN REVISED LOWER Buenos Aires grain exchange cut its forecast for Argentina’s corn crop to 50mt (previously 55mt), with provisional estimates for exports at 41mt.
The revised output for corn is due to the third consecutive year of the La Niña weather pattern that limits precipitation and reduces yields. The World Meteorological Office (WMO) predicts the current La Niña event — capable of exacerbating drought and flooding in different parts of the world — is drawing to the end of a three-year-cycle in February ’23; until then, there is a 70% per cent chance of occurring between SeptemberNovember ‘22, gradually decreasing to 55% percent between December–February 2022/23.
Conab forecasts Brazilian farmers will produce a record 126mt corn crop due to a larger planted area. Producer margins for corn are said to remain positive, despite the rise in input costs. Brazil’s exports are forecast at 46.5mt in 2022/23, given large available supplies, favourable exchange rates and robust demand.
DROUGHT CURBS COARSE GRAINS PROSPECTS Global coarse grain output is forecast to fall by 43mt to 1.46bn/t in 2022/23. Mostly due to reduced output in the US Midwest, where hot, dry weather curbed yield prospects for corn. Severe drought also affected EU countries, reducing coarse grain output to 139mt. While in Ukraine, the war severely cut coarse grain output by 15mt to 39mt.
COARSE GRAIN DEMAND TO FALL IN 2022/23
For the first time in ten years, global feed, food/industry use of coarse grains, is set to fall by almost 17mt to 1.47bn/t in 2022/23. This includes a 11mt cut mainly in food/industry use to 577mt with feed use reduced by 6mt to 906mt.
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR FEED LOWER IN 2022/23
Global corn output on a reduced corn area of 204m/ha is forecast to fall by 47mt to 1.17bn/t, and reflects a switch to planting oilseeds soybean and sunflower due to higher prices and lower fertilizer requirements. Hot, dry weather conditions in the US and EU contributed to drought stress for corn crops, decreasing yields, with output lower in the US 354mt, EU 59mt and in Ukraine 31.5mt, partially offset by a better crop in China of 274mt. Global demand is cut by 4mt to 743mt. Feed use expected to increase in China 214mt, Brazil 66.5mt, Mexico 26.3mt and Ukraine 11.5mt.
TIGHT CORN STOCKS DRIVE CORN PRICES HIGHER Global corn stocks have fallen to 305mt in 2022/23 (China 207mt World 98mt), with major exporters stocks 52mt. Since August major exporters’ quotes increased — Argentina Feed (Up River) $299/t (Sept 8 ’22); Brazil Feed (Paranagua) $290/t (Sept 8 ’22); US 3YC (Gulf) $324/t (Sept 8 ’22).
MODEST EXPANSION FOR MEAT TRADE IN 2022/23
Despite the challenging environmentwidespread animal diseases, conflicts and rising input costs. Only a modest expansion in world trade in meat and meat products is anticipated in 2022/23, reflecting limited export availabilities from exporters and a likely decline in China’s pig meat imports.
Higher beef prices-incentivized major
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/96ab7e4961461e12d41262b15890dd7a.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
producers in the US to cull animals, resulting in a high level of exports at competitive prices; improved rainfall led Australian producers to retain more heifers for breeding. Production growth in Brazil, Canada and Mexico offset a reduction in Australia. China’s beef production to rise to 7.4mt with imports lower at 2.5mt; low domestic prices, weaker economy, to impact imports of high value beef. Despite inflationary pressures and logistical issues global beef demand is expected to remain strong, helped by some countries lifting Covid-19 restrictions.
With a decline in pork production in the EU and Brazil-global pork production is forecast at 110.7mt in 2022/23 — upward revision for China 52mt (below pre-African Swine Fever (ASF) levels) offset by lower output in the EU 22.6mt, Brazil 4.3mt slow exports weigh on prices. Pork exports revised lower to 10.6mt 2022/23, due to a cut in China’s exports to 1.85mt, despite increases for South Korea, Mexico, Japan and the Philippines.
Rise in Ukraine’s chicken meat outputincreased global production to 101mt, largely offsetting weak domestic demand in Brazil. While, the EU continues to grapple with elevated feed prices and the highly pathogenic avian influenza. Chicken meat exports are slightly higher to countries, other than China and expected to fall as domestic pork production rebounds and eases demand for other animal proteins.
IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR BARLEY Despite a smaller global area, production of barley is forecast at 148mt in 2022/23. 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Production 1,403 1,420 1,441 1,506 1,463 Consumption 1,424 1,434 1,456 1,490 1,473 Trade 207 215 235 238 227 Stocks 352 337 323 339 330 of which China: 211 201 207 211 208 Key Exporters* 92 84 68 83 80
Source: IGC/USDA * US, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, EU, Australia, Canada
GLOBAL CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND 2017-2022/23 (MT)
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Production 1129 1123 1129 1220 1173 Consumption 1148 1138 1144 1200 1180 Trade 174 176 184 191 185 Stocks 323 308 293 312 305 of which China: 210 201 206 210 207 Key Exporters* 65 59 38 51 52
Source: IGC/USDA * Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US
Good yields improved output in Russia 21mt, Canada 10mt and Turkey 7.4mt partially offset by smaller crops in the EU 50mt, Ukraine 6.4mt and Australia 12.2mt. Feed use is forecast at 101.2mt with increases for Canada and Russia. Barley exports increased to China 9.5mt, Thailand 0.5mt, Vietnam 0.7mt, Saudi Arabia 4.7mt, Iran 2.5mt and in some other countries-a small increase in global trade to almost 30mt. International prices for barley remain firm — Jordan bought 120,000/t of feed barley $328/mt CFR for delivery Jan–Feb 2023. Feed Barley FOB Rouen $299/t (8 Sept’22) and FOB Argentine (upriver) $320/t (8 Sept’22).
SORGHUM OUTPUT IN 2022/23 Global sorghum output has increased in several countries, but a much reduced US crop of 6.4mt cut global output to 60mt in 2022/23. Sorghum exports are forecast at 9.7mt. China is the largest market importing 8mt to support feed demand mainly for pig and poultry and the production of Baijiu (a national spirit beverage) made by fermenting cooked sorghum or other grains. Major sorghum exporters include the US, Argentina and Australia. Sorghum values, like other coarse grains have increased FOB Texas $361.59/t (8 Sept ’22).
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN ACREAGE IN 2022/23 In the southern hemisphere Brazil is primed to plant a much larger soybean area, rising by 4m/acres to nearly 106m/acres — with a crop estimated at 149mt. The Argentine crop is pegged at 48mt (USDA 51mt) and Paraguay 10mt. This crop year meteorologists predict that Brazil and Argentina may experience the re-emergence of La Niña-type precipitation to be limited in the South of the country but adequate in the North. This type of weather pattern last year was responsible for cutting Brazilian soybean production by over 20mt.
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/04e20b16db1438be69b9cf14c84533a8.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
RECORD GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT DRIVEN BY SOYBEANS IN 2022/23 USDA’s latest forecast for global oilseed crops predicts a rise of some 43mt to
645mt in 2022/23, driven by a record output anticipated for soybeans of 390mt — this includes a downgrade to the US crop by 4mt to 119mt with yields of 50.5bu/acre, due to hot and dry weather in western growing areas.
There were also gains for rapeseed 82mt following a recovery in Canada, cottonseed 43mt, palm kernel 21mt, with groundnuts 50mt and copra 6mt unchanged. Lower output for sunflower seed 52mt, mainly due to the war that reduced Ukraine’s sunflower seed crop from 17.5mt to 9.5mt.
GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OILSEED MEALS FORECAST AT 357MT Global demand for oilseeds is expected to increase in 2022/23 though oilseed prices are expected to ease as potential rising supply offsets rising demand for its three major uses — meal fed to animals, oil used for cooking (food) and for fuel. Trade in oilseeds is forecast to rise by 19mt to 197mt in 2022/23, with increased imports into China, EU, Mexico, Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan and in many other countries.
SLOWDOWN IN CHINA REDUCES DEMAND FOR SOYBEANS IN 2022/23 China's slowing economy and zero tolerance-Covid-related restrictions and widespread lockdowns weakened demand for oil meals for swine and poultry rations and vegetable oil for food use. USDA
Sorghum cargoes.
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Production 601 581 607 602 645 of which (soybeans) 362 340 368 353 390 Crush 489 508 508 512 532 Consumption* 328 340 344 345 357 Trade Meals* 95 96 97 96 98 Trade Seeds 172 191 192 178 197 Stocks 134 112 116 109 119 of which (soybeans) 91 65 65 60 67 key exporters**
Source: USDA/*Meals cons/trade-excl. fishmeal. **Argentina, Brazil, US
forecast China will import 96.5mt of soybeans this season, 1.5mt lower than previously forecast.
HOG PRICES BEGIN TO IMPROVE Following months of lacklustre soybean imports and negative crush margins, soybean meal prices on the Dalian exchange picked-up at the end of August, on firm demand from hog farmers-who fatten their herd during this period to meet seasonally higher demand for pork products in winter. With hog prices beginning to recover, improved profits for pig producers while increasing the demand for soybean meal, helping to drive-up soybean meal prices.
SHORT-TERM SHORTAGE OF SOYBEAN MEAL While China is expected to meet increased soybean demand by producing and importing more soybeans — a short-term soybean meal shortage developed, with prices soaring in some provinces in September ahead of the Chinese National Day holidays. Spot prices of soybean meal rose in some of the main processing hubs of Guangdong and Shandong according to data from Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. and reflected in rising soybean meal prices on the Dalian Exchange for November delivery-4,525yuan/t ($635.89/t-15 Sept ‘22). Soymeal stocks fell to 493,000/t in mid-September well below the five-year average of 845,000/t. Chinese importers have stepped-up soybean purchases in recent weeks, notably from Argentina and with the US harvest under way likely to ease supply tightness in the coming monthsthe Mysteel Group predict China to import 6.8mt of soybeans in September, 5mt in October and 8.8mt in November. DCi
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/9dd1480a7ad44b0e46cc55d84d4777b4.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
Peer-reviewed research by Thordon Bearings into the hydrodynamic lubrication efficiency of a ship’s propeller shaft bearing has found that the use of seawaterlubricated elastomeric polymer bearings reduces fuel consumption.
The environmental and financial benefits of adopting a seawater-lubricated propeller shaft system are well documented, but this is the first indication that the arrangement reduces hydrodynamic resistance enough to improve fuel consumption, compared to a conventional oil-lubricated bearing arrangement.
The groundbreaking research is based on new methodology for calculating the performance of seawater-lubricated bearings, which, until now, has been based on decades-old theory developed for oillubricated propeller shaft bearings.
“Classic rigid surface bearing theory is valid and commonly used for oil-lubricated metal bearings. However, two major factors of seawater-lubricated bearings, namely low lubricant viscosity and deformability [of the polymer bearing surface], make the application of rigid surface bearing calculations susceptible,” Thordon Bearings’ Chief Research Engineer, Dr. Gary Ren, says in his peer-reviewed paper published in the July edition of the Elsevier journal Tribology International. “We believe Dr Ren’s method is more accurate, because it takes into account the characteristics of seawater as a lubricant, the polymer materials used, bearing pressures, viscosity, friction and so on,” said Elena Corin, Senior Manager, Special Marine Projects, Thordon Bearings. “This is the first time anyone has investigated whether there are differences in friction coefficient between the two types of bearings. And there are!”
Corin furthered that the new methodology provides “strong evidence” to quantitatively support the benefits of a Thordon COMPAC system. “By applying the results, we were able to determine the minimum required shaft speed for hydrodynamic lubrication efficiency, the coefficient of friction as well as the water film thickness at any given load and shaft speed,” she said.
“Test results confirmed that fuel losses due to the friction coefficient [hydrodynamic resistance] of an oillubricated propeller shaft bearing system can be reduced by as much as 85% by using seawater-lubricated polymer bearings.”
Thordon Bearings used the methodology to compare the fuel consumption of a Panamax containership and an Aframax tanker operating a 640mm (25.2in) diameter oil-lubricated propeller shaft bearing versus the same ships operating an open COMPAC seawaterlubricated bearing system.
Each vessel was assumed to run on VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil) at a global average price of US$890/mt, operating for 70% of the time.
“The results confirmed that fuel losses due to the friction coefficient (hydrodynamic resistance) of an oillubricated propeller shaft bearing system can be reduced by as much as 85%.
“Fuel costs will depend on the operational profile of the vessel, but we conservatively estimate annual savings of at least US$10,000 per vessel,” said Corin. “This is in addition to the other life cycle cost savings associated with a Thordon seawater-lubricated bearing system.”
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/dcf8378e1e1b4c3dd242a5745631f29d.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/9c9e5533d6a125306b27db899be098fc.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/f6b8d47782b15e80c8eed603c4789632.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)
![](https://assets.isu.pub/document-structure/221005084700-119d34834a8a66e6cb96f983551ffe61/v1/d53567a72fdbf3c1a6ac37a21ec20377.jpeg?width=720&quality=85%2C50)