Photo: Justus Bluemer/flickr/CC BY 2.0
Common Foreign and Security Policy
“The summit offers an opportunity as a starting point for a new phase, not a one-off event with no follow-up” Arnaud Danjean **
Time is running out for the European Union
Europe’s defence does matter by Hartmut Bühl, Brussels and Uwe Nerlich*, Munich The European Union Summit in December 2013 will focus on the “state of defence” in Europe, at a time of rising awareness of the strong interdependency between internal and external security, as well as between social stability and economic prosperity in a globalised environment.
Reconsidering Europe’s defence and … The Heads of State and Government will need to draw a picture of the quasi irrelevance of Europe’s defence with its dramatically reduced military capabilities to a level that does not allow Europe to seriously react to any crisis in areas of interest without strong support from the US, which is less and less willing to take on this responsibility. The summit should therefore re-consider Europe’s defence in the medium timeframe of the next twenty years, taking a thorough look at capability planning, funding resources and industrial policy, which needs to regain the necessary relevance in an increasingly competitive global environment. This suggests the future role of the defence industry.
… defining vital interests now and in the future Europe needs to shape its future role by defining its vital interests. The EU’s role as a global strategic player is widely dismissed. It needs once again to be on eye level with other global players and future powers. This includes the military dimension, giving Europe a chance to stay on the path towards prosperity and security despite its outstanding dependence on global trade, supply and access. The forthcoming summit may not produce tangible results, but it would turn into a game changer if it were to reinforce and give direction to this European momentum. And indeed, whatever the current public mood throughout Europe suggests, the future of defence in Europe does matter, if Europe is to prevail as a global power. But time is running out for Europe. Generating and deploying strategic capabilities must concur with the 25-30 year timeframe within which Europe’s future as a global player is at stake. The December 2013 Summit must be the beginning of a sustained process. Failure would derail that process, with long-term consequences. Rebuilding strategic capabilities and rationales for Europe must therefore no longer be postponed.
A European capacity for strategic action Thus a reappraisal of defence in Europe is indeed imperative: constraints of the kind of the current financial crisis tend to erode Europe’s defence without agreed bottom lines, turning “strategic” defence reforms into mere efforts to manage decline. European prosperity and viability in turn will be challenged in an increasingly competitive environment with strong incentives among threshold countries to strengthen indigenous capacities, including for exports. The growing fragility of maritime supply lines and the evolving strategic and military dimensions of the very growth zones on which Europe is more and more dependent suggest a key turningpoint in European strategic policy.
Shaping the future A European capacity for strategic action is likely to become a precondition for Europe’s well-being. And this must be in the common strategic interest of all Member States, even if individual nations are affected in different ways. The burden of future defence will fall primarily on core countries, a scenario foreseen in the Lisbon Treaty with so-called “structured cooperation”. The lack of vision is a standard complaint. The forthcoming Summit thus should not be seen as the “last hope”, but as the beginning of seminal changes. The closer governments, armed forces and security and defence industries cooperate in this endeavour, the more Europe will be able to shape its defence in keeping with its future role in the global world of 2030.
* Dr Uwe Nerlich, since 2006 partner and founding director of the Center for European Security Strategies (CESS), Munich, an SME with an international network for research and consultancies in support of governments, international organisations, industries and media, drawing on expertise in many countries and disciplines based on a flexible structure for project work and cooperative ventures. ** Arnaud Danjean MEP and Chairman of the EP Subcommittee on Security and Defence, “The future is in the hands of Nations” in: The European–Security and Defence Union, Volume Nr 16 page 26, Brussels 2013
11