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Interview with Helmut Sorge, Rabat/Marrakech Power play in the Middle East Europe’s missing influence
“Suddenly we could face darkness” Power play in the Middle East
Interview with Helmut Sorge, Columnist for Geopolitics and International Relations, Policy Center for the New South, Rabat
The European: Mr Sorge, the Middle East is in turmoil, possibly threatened by another war with whatever configuration of parties. Should we assume the worst? Helmut Sorge: Since the establishment of Israel in 1948, which was preceded by violence, it has been involved in eight wars. Suez, Gaza, Lebanon, the Six-Day War in 1967, which led to the occupation of the West Bank and the Golan Heights and provoked the Palestinian Infadas, the uprising of the people. Since then, we have observed more destabilisation in the region, for example through the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, which led to the horror of the “Islamic State” (ISIS), the attempt to create a Caliphate. The worst is not coming, it has already happened – a permanent disaster for the people of the Middle East, forced to escape, millions to Jordan, more to Turkey, and, yes, to Europe...
The European: … and suddenly Europe was forced to recognise that these conflicts, which seemed so far away, were threatening its own stability. Refugees from the Middle East arriving in hundreds of thousands were welcomed by some and rejected by a growing number of European nations. Helmut Sorge: The unorganised arrival of so many refugees clearly shifted political sentiments to the right, even into the shadow of fascism, reviving the spirits of Hitler or Mussolini. But besides these ideological upheavals, Europe is facing another menace, a war between the US and Iran. Just one Iranian missile hitting an American warship in the Strait of Hormuz, the only sealed passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, killing dozens of US soldiers or sinking the ship, would mean retaliation, an escalation of unforeseeable dimensions. Tehran could, with a few missiles, destroy the oilfields of Saudi Arabia and disrupt the oil deliveries to large regions of the planet, including Europe. Suddenly we could face darkness.
The European: There is also the ongoing crisis in Libya, that Europe has to deal with, and which has led to the aggravation of the situation in arrivals, mainly in Italy. How critical is the situation in Libya and who are the powers who intervene from outside? Helmut Sorge: Firstly, it is a real shame how Europeans are abandoning Rome and Athens in their plight to deal with refugees, tolerating miserable and inhumane refugee camps.
misery of people in Africa and Asia subsists, famine, civil wars in many regions - Yemen, Nigeria, Afghanistan come to mind – there is no easy solution. If I was starving somewhere in Sub Saharan Africa, I also would strive to reach the supposed world of milk and honey, the dream of an ever-generous Europe. The wanderings will not end tomorrow. Let’s not forget that over the last 40 years nearly 20 African nations faced civil war and destabilisation, enticing millions of people to look for a better future elsewhere. The European: Would a “European Marshall plan” for Africa help? Helmut Sorge: Sure. But it would need decades to be implemented. It would need the consent of the European nations, already struggling with populism, unwilling to transfer billions towards the African continent. The European: At least Washington has been trying to defuse the conflict in the Middle East by offering a peace plan to Israelis and Palestinians, the so-called Kushner plan, proposed by Donald Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner. The Palestinians immediately rejected it and Mahmoud Abbas, their President, deplored the project as “a gift for Israel”. Would you consider this effort a failure? Helmut Sorge: I have dealt with Palestine for half a century as a journalist for the magazine DER SPIEGEL. In 1968 I met Yassir Arafat, who in 1993 became the first Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority. It was the first time that DER SPIEGEL did an interview in the West Bank, more than half a century ago. Ever since the days after the Six-Day War, a two state solution was debated and finally seemed possible when Arafat, together with Israel’s then President Shimon Perez and the Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin were honoured with the Nobel Peace Prize “for their efforts to create peace in the Middle East.” The European: This opportunity was missed. And Donald Trump is not helping things. Helmut Sorge: Alas! Prior to consulting with the Palestinians, Donald Trump offered Jerusalem to his Jewish allies as an undivided capital, proposed to annex Jewish settlements in the As regards the civil war in Libya, some Special Forces from Washington are active there, supposedly trying to destabilise Islamic State elements, Moscow has activated some private mercenaries, Turkey is taking sides with a few troops, France and Italy are active, both on opposing sides, which demonstrates the lack of any clear European concept or philosophy, except the attempt to stop the flow of migrants from North Africa’s shores to nations like Italy. The Libya conference in Berlin in January this year created a certain hope, but it will need much more time, and without an active Russia – partner in the conference –, there will be no progress. The European: Is there any miracle solution? Helmut Sorge: I do not see any immediate solution. It is a disgrace that members of the European Union are refusing to accept migrants on their territory. For me, European states with “Christian values” like Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria are hypocritical. The truth is that despite generosity shown by some, no European state is among the top ten refugee hosting nations of the world. I would like to remind you that when the EU members, late last year, discussed a plan to get migrants off boats in the Mediterranean Sea and distribute them among willing EU Member States, only 7 of 28 states accepted. The European: So, isn’t there any solution to the refugee and migration problem? Helmut Sorge: As long as we are dealing with a war in Syria, supported by Russia, a member of the UN Security Council, willing to veto any realistic peace proposal, as long as the Helmut Sorge was born in 1942 in Hamburg. For over 40 years he worked as a journalist for the German magazine Der Spiegel, reporting from Vietnam and the Middle East and taking the position of foreign correspondent in Washington, London, Paris and Los Angeles. Mr Sorge is the author of several books and is currently teaching “Communication and Power” at the prestigious University Mohammed VI-Polytechnique, near Marrakech. Since 2018, he is also a columnist on geopolitics and international relations at the influential Moroccan think tank “Policy Centre for the New South” in Rabat. The Policy Center for the New South The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) is a Moroccan think tank which aims to contribute to the improvement of economic and social public policies that challenge Morocco and the rest of Africa as integral parts of the global south. The PCNS brings together researchers and publishes their work. It capitalises on a network of renowned partners, representative of different regions of the world. > web: https://www.policycenter.ma/ i
Helmut Sorge meeting Yassir Arafat for an interview in 1968
picture provided by Helmut Sorge
occupied areas to the Israeli government, and provoked justified Arab anger by handing the Syrian Golan heights to Israel. No question, we are talking about occupied land where more than half a million Jewish settlers moved and built their homes, against all international law and UN solutions. How can such a peace plan be credible?
The European: Possibly Trump considered the plan a so-called kick start, trying to get the opponents to at least negotiate again? Helmut Sorge: The European Union foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell rejected part of the proposal, saying that it broke “internationally agreed parameters.” In clear: no annexations, no divided Jerusalem and a two state solution. What did Israel offer? A Palestinian capital in the Jerusalem suburb of Abu Dis and their state, after annexation, looking like a “Swiss cheese”, as the Palestinians complained. Trump tried to entice the Palestinians with promises of billion-dollar investments, just like he tried to convince the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un: give up your nuclear weapons and your economy will bloom like cherry trees in Japan.
The European: So, the two-state solution is dead? Helmut Sorge: Yes, as long as Donald Trump is President of the United States. Will he be reelected – another four years of nightmare? Too early to predict. If that nightmare should turn into fact, the Middle East will remain destabilised, and not only because of Israel’s policies of illegal annexation. The European: After all, Trump’s loyalty to Saudi Arabia and the belligerent attitude of his most precious Arab ally towards Iran may provoke a conflict? Helmut Sorge: The leaders in Riyadh possibly lost some of their illusions during the last couple of months. When Iranian drones or missiles attacked the Saudi oil fields Abqaiq and Khurais last September, disrupting the national oil company Aramco’s oil exports by 5.7 million barrels a day, cutting Saudi oil production by about half, Washington did not retaliate by firing missiles towards Iranian targets to punish the enemy for their evil deeds.
The European: Do you see a parallel when, after the killing of Tehrani revolutionary guard commander, General Qassem Suleimani, by an US drone in Baghdad on 3 rd January 2020, Tehran fired several missiles onto an American military base near the Iraqi capital, wounding several dozen GIs, Trump did not retaliate? Helmut Sorge: He didn’t even punish the Shiites trying to storm the US embassy in Baghdad. The US president, facing elections in November, is hesitating before entering another military conflict. He had promised the withdrawal from Arab conflict zones, he is negotiating the withdrawal from Afghanistan, so, why should he risk his reelection by starting a war with Iran for Saudi Arabia?
The European: In all this Middle Eastern power play, European observers possibly underestimated the importance of the Arab struggle, related to their religious competition, 14 centuries in the making: the rivalry between Shiites and Sunnis. Helmut Sorge: A very valid point. We are dealing with about 1.5 billion Muslims in the world, of which about 20 percent live in the Middle East. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt are in majority Sunni, Iran and Iraq Shiite, although minorities exist in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Syria and Yemen. Often these groups get entangled between religion and politics.
The European: Is the invasion of Syria by Turkey’s troops some months ago an indication of power struggles to come, a battle with Syrian troops for example or even a confrontation with Russian forces? Helmut Sorge: Some Turkish soldiers were killed, and we do not know how Moscow will react if Turkish troops accidentally hit Russian soldiers active in Syria. The potential of an escalation is there, just as we have seen when Iranian missiles hit a passenger jet taking off from an Iranian airport. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogˇ an is a politician talented in horse trading and blackmail. His country is a member of NATO, but he does not hesitate to buy anti-missile systems in Russia. He did allow European Islamic State recruits to travel through Turkey to reach their Caliphate in making, and now he sends the ones captured by Turkish soldiers back to their nations, regardless of whether those governments like it or not.
