THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION
Violent extremism and the weaponization of water in a changing climate
by Dr Marcus DuBois King, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
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n the Middle East and East Africa, increasing water stress is an underlying factor increasing existing security threats. To be sure, these areas have historically experienced chronically arid conditions. However, regional climate predictions anticipate even higher temperatures, more frequent droughts, and greater variability in precipitation in the coming decades. Indeed, these changes will be felt more broadly.
Growing water scarcity and water stress The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in areas of absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be subject to water stress. These conditions, as discussed below, have enabled Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) to use water as a weapon in an increasing variety of destabilizing ways. A 2012 U.S. intelligence community assessment cautioned that as water becomes more scarce, states may begin employing water as a weapon—even in regions where cooperative solutions have previously prevailed. While examples to date of water’s usage as a weapon amongst nation states are scant; at the subnational level, non-state actors including VEOs are already using water across a spectrum of terrorist activities, insurgencies, and civil wars.
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According to the Oxford Dictionary, a weapon is “a means of gaining advantage or defending oneself in a conflict or contest.” Wielded by a group, a weapon can take the form of a medium, action, or offensive capability used to coerce, injure, or kill. Prominent extremist organizations utilizing this asymmetrical approach include: the so-called Islamic State (IS), Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and an additional Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, the Al-Nusrah Front.
Examples of water weaponization incidents Syria and Iraq IS has weaponized water in all of these respects in Syria and Iraq, a region afflicted by acute drought, in a comprehensive manner that is unprecedented in recent conflict. Our research finds that IS and Al-Nusrah were responsible for at least 24 water weaponization incidents between 2012 and 2015. IS has used the water weapon on a strategic level to achieve implied territorial control. An infamous example is IS’s seizure and brief control of the Mosul Dam on the Tigris River upstream from Baghdad in 2014. This action provided at least the potential capability of unleashing a powerful torrent of water, able to destroy the so-called Green Zone where allied forces were based. The U.S. initiated an airpower campaign, largely in response to this threat. IS also used water as a strategic asset in administrative and financial activities within controlled areas to support weapons procurement. In Raqqa, the de facto capital
Source : shutterstock free images.
Climate change is steadily expanding the footprint of water stress
