EURASIACRITIC SPECIAL EDITION by EURASIA CRITIC NEWS AGENCY

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EurasiaCritic January 2010 Vol. 2 ISSUE 10 Monthly Magazine on Eurasian Politics Published every month by Eurasia Critic Yayincilik Ltd. Head Office: Esat R. No: 55/5 Kucukesat ANKARA/TURKEY T: 0090 (312)4170383 F: 0090 (312)4170392 Publisher Hakki AHMETBEYOGLU Editors Ozer CETINKAYA Ali ALTAN Assistant Editor Caglar KURC Burcu OZCELIK Regional Directors Middle East Yousuf AL SHARIF Southestern Asia Fazal-UR-RAHMAN Caucasus Hasan KANBOLAT Balkans Ibrahim ARSLAN India Prof. Dr. Ajay Kumar PATNAIK Azerbaijan Ganire PASHAEVA Syria Ibrahim HAMIDI Kazakhstan Murat SHAHANOV Uzbekstan Ali KULEBI Japan Prof. Dr. Masanori NAITO Energy Strategies M. Mete GOKNEL Nuclear Studies Prof. Dr. Saleh SULTANSOY Millitary Affairs David AXE UK Represantative Gizem Fowler Jamie Fowler Advisory Committee George HEWITT Nuzhet KANDEMIR Ismael HOSSEIN-ZADEH Norman STONE Ali KULEBI

Regional and Global Cooperation in the Context of Turkey’s Energy Corridor and Terminal Concept By Taner Yildiz

The Middle East in 2020 By Alon Ben-Meir

Media Director Cigdem BEDIZ Photography Provider: AFP Illustrations Mahmut KARATOPRAK Distribution Manager Mert ALTAN ISSN 1308-1560 Printers: Basak Matbaacilik HOW TO CONTACT US General enquiries: 0090 (312) 4170383 info@eurasiacritic.co.uk Letters to the Editor : editor@eurasiacritic.co.uk ©2009 Eurasia Critic News Agency Ltd. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of Eurasia Critic News Agency Ltd.

On the Threshold of Digital Battlefields By Arda Mevlutoglu

Eurasian Food Security in 2020: Two Scenarios By F. William Engdahl

Potential Conflict Zones in Eurasia The End of a Historical Intermission

Future Projections of Turkish Defense Industry: Regional Interest By Murad Bayar

Turkish Chemicals Industry Report

By Ozer Cetinkaya

Ten Years into the Future By Ali Kulebi

Forging the past: OUP and the ‘Armenian question’ By Jeremy Salt

Projections for 2020: Global Political Focus C

Editorial 4

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ertainly we are neither diviners, nor trying to report news from the future. We are just providing some insights about what could have happen in the world in the next 10 years under the light of science. We tried present arguments with provocative articles to social scientists. In some areas, we brought philosophical underpinnings. Possible developments were tackled with the perspective of historical dialectic. The reflections of developments that have been experienced during the Cold War, post-Cold War environment until 2001 and since 2001 were the landmarks of the analysis. As much as what we are experiencing today are reflection of the recent past, it also have footsteps of what we will experience tomorrow. The foundation of this dictum is the fact that since the end of the Cold War, there have been no signed peace agreement. Processes like Dayton and Oslo included just the ceasefire. Talking about a full fledged peace is impossible. Furthermore, this new period was defined as, with a great illusion, New World Order. 1989-2001 passes as a historical intermission. Relative wealth that humanity experienced made the deep abyss more clear. Behind the shadow of artificial alliances, the infrastructure for conflict have been laid. While the victorious US enjoyed this period, other were busy with their preparations. The post-2001 period offered extra time and opportu-

nities for those, who are preparing. Since 2001, the New World Order was collapsed and the historical intermission was ended. This situations resulted in the violent emergence of frozen conflicts of the past and it will always remembered as the years that the first step has been taken towards intense conflicts. Geopolitic Global Political Focus will determine the first half of the 21st century. Political awakening is widening and popularizing. As much as it popularize, it is radicalizing. This situation, while igniting century old dormant demands, it is fueling conflicts. The breaking of relative wealth that experienced during the historical intermission is stimulating unsatisfied masses. It is observed that this movement is finding global allies and the alliance is increasingly broadening. Uneven development and social injustice is easily unifying people all around the world with different nationality, religion and language against the status quo. However, these groups are becoming young, sectarian and impossible to control. They are composed of people, who the majority is living in the Third World countries, have limited access to world resources and aged under 25. Majority of them are concentrated in middle and low level education institutions, they can use computer and in communication and interaction with far regions of the world. Unemployed

section of the group are more radical, semi-active and angry. This group has the tendency to become either religious radicals or anti-globalization activist or both. Because, as the age group, they are representing the new generation and because of this, they fast in being the part of political movements. They have not experienced the ideological fears of the Cold War. Although, they are not like Trotsky, they are more international than national. The most distinct characteristic is being anti-Western on the basis of anti-Americanism. As a opposition to this, they are conservative in religion and Marxist in economics. They represent nationalism that blended with Orthodox values in countries like Russia, Ukraine and former Yugoslavia; a resistance that rise on the foundations of Islam in the Middle east, Southeast Asia and North Africa. The reason for anti-Western stance is more than a populist movement but entrench in the history. With such meaning and all its mistakes, it represents the Renaissance of the East. Against this crowd that is 75% of worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total population, the population of the West (the US+Canada+Europe) will remain 15% in 2020. Billions of people are in the adventure for the search of new and powerful status. This search is affecting economic realm as much as it fuels regional conflicts. Western capitalism would be forced to share regulations that have been crafted in

accordance to its interests via World Bank, WTO and IMF. Economic structures that are protective but more flexible in regional sense would come into prominence. Some Europeans can join this process. Because, East Asia would become a center for attraction that they will ask for more share in international economic and political interests and insist on their demands tougher. One of the determining effects of the 21st century will be the decrease in the traditional dominance of EuroAtlantic world. Aggressive reactions of Euro-Atlantic bloc would make the separation more sharp. Foreign imposed, impatient democracy transfers efforts can be shown as examples for this. However, there is an ongoing process that this situation of Euro-Atlantic bloc would be balanced. It is certain that they will withdraw from various regions. The US and Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s struggle with Islam would create opportunities for China, Russia and India to spread their international role in the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia. In opposition to the US, these states will be gladly welcomed. Various European states would try to develop special relations with energetic Far East. The pangs of this are being experienced. Moreover, this special relationship would evolve into joint action towards global problems or reaching at shared values. This points out a deep crack in Atlantic bloc; hence

economic interests would play determining role in this special relationship. European currency Euro and prospective Asia common currency would not want to finance the US debts any more. This situation would lead to establishment of new trade routes and practices in Pacific and Atlantic. In the search for new Cape Hope, Russia, Turkey, Caucasus and Central Asia would become new sites of exploration for Europe. The long running stagnation and decline periods of Empires in the past has left its place to rapid realizations in the 21st century. Global Political Focus is a determining factor. While, there is a distance towards Euro-Atlantic bloc, states like Turkey, Ukraine and Georgia have come to realization that gates of Europe is closed to them. Turkey, while joining with the Middle East, which is rising with religiously, it is getting closer with its new ally Russia (increase of trade volume to 100 billion dollar and bi-lateral abandoning the visa requirement have been set as main targets). In this process, just like before, NATO would try represent the US aggressiveness. Thus, both giving a message to the new world and strengthening of the ties between the allies have been aimed. This situation could become concrete as NATO expands towards Pacific. However, especially Japan would opt for security area that depends on Japan in the intermediate-term. EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Energy

Regional and Global Cooperation in the Context of Turkey’s Energy Corridor and Terminal Concept By Taner Yildiz Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey

mproving the investment environment for sustaining energy supply security paves the way for establishment of a competitive and transparent market. The deepening of international, bilateral and multilateral relationships in the energy sector increases the importance of energy connections and regional cooperation processes that operate in an economy of scale. In today’s energy sector, the diversity of export routes for producer nations is as important as the diversity of resources for consumer nations. This means that Turkey is very important to producer nations currently implementing policies seeking to di-

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versify their oil and natural gas export an “advantage” and a “value” both for routes. energy resource producer nations and Turkey, given its unique geostrategic for market nations. position, can facilitate the transport of Turkey already has the potential and Caspian, Middle Eastern and Central the ability to meet its own needs with Asian energy resources to Europe and any one or several of its neighbors. Turkey’s real goal is to increase the the world market by routes that are secure, economic and respectful to na- diversity of its oil and natural gas reture. From this persources so that in the future, it could serve spective we see that Turkey’s physical to market a broad Turkey is already the location is an range of products, natural and de facto “advantage” and a and permit prices to bridge and intersec“value” both for energy tion between Asia, be determined by the market, rather than Europe and the Midresource producer by monopolist ardle East. Turkey’s nations and for market physical location is rangement. nations. Turkey directs its efforts toward keeping the doors open to “sustainable long term” and solid partnerships. The sustainability of energy supply security can be achieved along the whole chain of transit partners by using win-win strategies and integrated cooperation mechanisms that should be established collectively. This is why the goals of energy market integration and the improvement and development of electric, gas and oil conduits should be primary strategic concerns for every nation. Every pipeline from Turkey to Europe, both extant and prospective, will integrate Turkey and Europe and will affect Euro-Atlantic institutions and values by bridging the gap between con-

Energy

nected geographies. This integrated structure includes full membership in the EU, a strategic future with the EU, and, in every sense of the word, a partnership based on “full trust.” Turkey and the EU are energy security partners and they work together for an inseparable future. In such a future, blocking Turkey’s EU membership seems like an act of ignorance. From this point of view, it is impossible to understand why, with no obstacles in the way, “energy chapter” negotiations have yet to get underway. In Turkey’s search for energy security, there is nothing more natural than continuous cooperation with Turkey’s neighbors in the future. Turkey is equidistant to all the energy resource nations and it is eager and avid to work constructively with all of them to procure gas. Certainly, like the EU, Turkey’s main medium term goal is to achieve more balanced procurement levels from all these suppliers and to avoid relying on a single supplier.

Turkey’s efforts to this end are not deep enough for them not to perceive the result of Turkey’s political affinity Turkey’s multilateral and multidirecwith a given nation or region, nor a shift tional relations, no matter what tests of axis. Likewise, it does not involve they may face, as contradictory. Consequently, Turkey actively purpolitical opposition to or alliance with any nation. This approach is the func- sues multidirectional energy policies for the purpose of maintion of plain realism taining energy supply in the context of trade Turkey directs security for both itself and economic security its efforts toward and its partners. We alone. keeping the doors believe that Turkey’s The orientation of open to “sustainable importance lies in its Turkish foreign policy is based on three pilcapability and desire long term” and solid lars. These are: to develop main tranpartnerships. 1. Relations with sit oil and natural gas transatlantic organipipelines. This is why zations and allies, including the United Turkey is realizing east-west and, presStates ently, north-south energy corridors. 2. Relations with the EU and the With this idea our relations with goal of full membership Eurasia, the Middle East and North Af3. Relations with close neighbors rica nations are strengthened and made and regions necessary. The completed Baku-TbilisiThese elements do not exclude one Ceyhan crude oil pipeline, the Bakuanother. It should be made clear that Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline choosing one does not mean abandon- and the Turkey-Greece interconnector ing the others. Turkey’s true friends are illustrate Turkey’s contribution to stamature and knowledgeable enough, bility and cooperation in its vicinity. and their connections to Turkey are By creating the “Central Asia-South EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Energy

Caucasus-Europe” corridor in our com- 1.2 million barrels, and in the future, mon interest we are intensifying our en- another increase to 1.6 million barrels. ergy dialogue with the EU, and diver- Since October 2008, the BTC has been sification projects like Nabucco have transporting oil produced in Kazakhstrategic importance, since they make stan’s Tengiz field to the global market. it possible to export energy resources On this occasion, I would like to extend directly to Europe, and not only to Eu- my gratitude to Kazakhstan’s president, rope, but also to Central Asia and the Mr. Nazarbayev. Caspian Sea Region. Parallel to the BTC Two important project, the CaspianTurkey is equidistant projects in the EastTurkey-Europe natural to all the energy gas pipeline project, West energy corridor resource nations and which envisions the are completed. The transport of natural Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan it is eager and avid to gas produced in the (BTC) crude oil pipework constructively nations of the Caspian line was operationalwith all of them to region to Turkey, and ized in 2006. The BTC procure gas. then to European napipeline accounts for tions, has an important 1.5% of global total place East-West energy corridor oil consumption. While hil successfully cc f ll l c iin our E managing the pipeline, we were hon- policy. In this context, the Baku-Tbiliored to ship the thousandth tanker si-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipefrom Ceyhan to the global market on line was completed, and natural gas December 21, 2009. Simultaneously, we has been flowing through this pipeline are considering an increase of the pipe- since July 2007. The BTE natural gas line’s capacity from 1 million barrels to pipeline, with its annual 20 billion cu8

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bic meters capacity, is not only important for meeting Turkey’s domestic gas demand, but also for meeting some of the EU’s rising demand for natural gas. The pipeline shipped 3.66 billion cubic meters of natural gas between January and September 2009, and has already shipped a total of 9.63 billion cubic meters. With the commissioning of the Turkey-Greece natural gas pipeline in November 2007, the first stage of the South Europe Gas Ring project was completed. Thus, the integration of Turkey’s natural gas transit network with the infrastructure of its neighbor states was realized and Turkey have become bridge procurer in natural gas. The next stage of the South Europe Gas Ring will be the extension of the Turkey-Greece natural gas pipeline to Italy through a new line under the Adriatic Sea. With the Trans Adriatic pipeline, we plan to ship a total of approximately 12 billion cubic meters of gas every year: 3.6 billion cubic meters to Greece and

Energy 8 billion cubic meters to Italy. The intergovernmental agreement establishing a natural gas transportation corridor between these three nations was signed July 26, 2007. Adriatic Sea pass that would connect Greece and Italy is planned to be commissioned in 2013. Nabucco is another natural gas route to Europe. This pipeline project, with its maximum capacity of 31 billion cubic meters per year, will significantly expand Europe’s access to energy resources and diversify its supply routes. The intergovernmental agreement on Nabucco was signed in Ankara on July 13, 2009. The plan is to make the project operational in 2014. Turkey greatly values Central Asian nations’ support for the Nabucco project. Since July 2008, Syria has been receiving natural gas from Egypt as part of the Arab Natural Gas Pipeline Project, which plans to transport Egyptian natural gas to Europe via Jordan, Syria and Turkey. Currently, the pipeline has reaches as far as the Syrian city, Humus, and with the completion of 230 more kilometers it will reach the Turkish border, and the natural gas networks of these two nations will be connected. The memorandum of understanding signed between Turkey and Syria on August 20, 2009 establishes a joint working group for connecting the nations’ gas networks. The memorandum of understanding also plans for the sale of natural gas from Turkey to Syria, the transportation of Egyptian natural gas to Turkey through Syria, shipping from Turkey to other Arab nations, from Turkey to Syria and, in the future, transportation of Syrian gas to Turkey. On October 15, 2009, a memorandum of understanding was signed regarding the development of the IraqTurkey Natural Gas pipeline. It considers the potential of Iraqi natural gas as a source for projects that will supply gas to Turkey and Europe. On the other hand, in a few years the Turkish Straits will be unable to provide a secure passage for the oil transported from Black Sea. Already, 150 million tons of dangerous freight annually pass

through the Straits. The Samsun-Cey- of new pipelines. Furthermore, Turkey han Crude Oil Pipeline aims to reduce agreed to do exploration and environthis traffic of dangerous freight, and mental research for the construction of was planned as a main component of the South Stream Natural Gas Pipeline the North-South Energy Corridor. The in the Black Sea economic region. project’s groundbreaking ceremony was Another important issue is the held in Ceyhan on April 24, 2007. memorandum of understanding on On August 6, 2009, Turkey and procurement of liquified natural gas Russia signed pro(LNG) signed with tocols on oil and gas Qatar, which has imTurkey actively cooperation. The oil portant natural gas pursues protocol includes supreserves, in Doha on multidirectional port for joint ventures October 6, 2009. Furenergy policies for the involving Turkish and thermore, ongoing purpose of maintaining Russian oil compabilateral negotiations nies and guarantee with Qatar concern energy supply security the necessary oil supthe construction of a for both itself and its ply for the realization new pipeline passing partners. of Samsun-Ceyhan through Saudi AraCrude Oil Pipeline bia, Jordan and Syria project. Furthermore, Turkey, Italy and on its way to Turkey. Russia signed an unofficial agreement On October 28, 2009, we signed a on the Samsun-Ceyhan Pipeline project natural gas agreement with Iran. Acin Milan on October 18, 2009. cording to this agreement, the TurkThe gas protocol signed between ish Petroleum Corporation (Türkiye Turkey and Russia on August 6, 2009, Petrollerı Anonim Ortaklığı, or TPAO) extends the “February 14, 1986 Pro- may prospect for natural gas in various curement and Selling Agreement,” fields in Iran’s South Pars region withexpanding existing pipelines for the out bidding for a contract. Iranian natutransportation of Russian natural gas ral gas may also be shipped to Europe to Turkey and through Turkey to other through Turkey, while Turkmenistan’s nations, and providing for a feasibility natural gas may be shipped to Turkey assessment regarding the construction through Iran. EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Middle East

THE MIDDLE EAST IN 2020 By Prof. Alon Ben-Meir

lthough it may be presumptu- continuing violent conflict resulting in ous to predict the future of the the death of tens of thousands of Israelis Middle East and what kind of and Palestinians, it appears that the two changes we should expect by 2020, the sides have settled on an overall solution political volatility of the region and the based on the idea of two-states—Isranature of the conflicts that have been el, and a Palestinian state in the West raging for decades have created cer- Bank and Gaza. Yet this is not to sugtain facts on the ground that cannot be gest that an agreement between the two changed, short of catastrophic events. parties is at hand. There remain many These facts will eventuintricate and intractable ally determine certain issues that stand in the From the Israeli outcomes, regardless of face of reaching an acperspective, the continued instability cord, specifically regardthe question of or even the possibility of ing questions over the demographics another major violent future of East Jerusalem, eruption. To envision the final borders, and a has rendered the what the Middle East continuation of the solution to the Palestinwill look like in 2020, it ian refugee problem. occupation simply is necessary to identify But as certain facts on unsustainable. these facts in each conthe ground have evolved, flicting area and place the fundamentals of such them in their historical perspectives. an agreement have left both sides to The five most likely conflicts that will conclude that a two-state solution is be subject to a dramatic change for bet- the only viable means to bring a lasting ter or worse are the Israeli-Palestinians resolution to the conflict. conflict, the dispute between Israel From the Israeli perspective, and Syria over the Golan Heights, the the question of demographics has renfuture stability of Iraq, Iran’s nuclear dered the continuation of the occupaambitions, and the war in Afghanistan. tion simply unsustainable. If the Israelis wish to maintain the Jewish national The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: identity of the state—which is a naAfter more than six decades of tional prerequisite—they must ensure

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a sustainable Jewish majority. This is simply impossible through continuing the occupation, as sooner rather than later Israel will be faced with two unacceptable choices: either give the Palestinians in the occupied territories equal political rights, which will almost immediately make the combined Palestinian population in the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel proper the ruling majority, or deny them such equality, and thereby inadvertently create an apartheid state, which would be unacceptable even to the Israelis themselves. Israel has ruled out the expulsion or the forced resettlement of Palestinians from the occupied territories, and successive Israeli governments have come to accept the international consensus that a two-state solution is the only viable option. From the time Israel signed a peace treaty with Egypt in 1979, the Palestinian national movement has gone through a major transformation. Although the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) initially made the destruction of Israel the pillar of its national goal, it too, has gone through an agonizing process of survival and introspection, forcing it to painfully conclude

Middle East that Israel is a fact on the ground that cannot be defeated and must be reckoned with. Even Palestinian extremist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad who still advocate the destruction of Israel, too have quietly came around to accept the undisputable fact that Israel’s military cannot be overcome now or at any time in the foreseeable future. Without publicly admitting, they too have resigned themselves to finding some kind of modus-operandi to live side-by-side with the Israelis in peace, even suggesting a 30-year ceasefire. Decades of continuing violence have demonstrated that neither side can dramatically improve over their current position, regardless of how much longer the conflict persists. Therefore, both sides may have reached a point of exhaustion, where they have finally reached a ripe moment to make peace.

Moreover, in addition to the internal ing each other on the important issues movement within the Israeli and Pal- of water and security. Twice in the past estinian factions, there is a solid inter- decade, in 2000 and in 2008, Israel and national consensus, supported by the Syria came extremely close to reaching Arab states through the Arab Peace an agreement based on this formula, Initiative, that a two-state solution is but due to internal discord in Israel and the only solution that could end the the political vulnerability of its leaders, Middle East’s strife. All international neither Prime Minister Barak nor Olassistance is now focused toward that mert were able to deliver the promised end, and the United States must play a peace. This history, however, does not direct and active role in facilitating the change certain facts that will make the achievement of peace between Israel negotiation process. Looking at the Israeli-Pales- and Syria most likely in the next decade. Damascus has long tinian conflict from this since made peace with vantage-point suggests Decades of Israel a strategic option. that although future viocontinuing violence This principle position lent encounters or even have demonstrated has withstood the test war cannot be ruled out, of time more than once, the likelihood is that the that neither side most recently as Israel Israelis and Palestinians can dramatically attacked Syria’s nuclear will reach a peace agreeimprove over their reactor in September ment in the next decade. current positionThe 2007. Although DamasIn the months and years Israeli-Syrian cus is determined to reto come though, both discord over the capture the Golan, it has sides still have a ruled out the use of force ways to go in Golan Heights is to achieve this objective, strengthening probably much and has largely adhered the political, easier to resolve. to the 1974 disengageeconomic ment agreement with and security pillars necessary to Israel, providing further evidence of its commitment to a peaceful solution. sustain a peace. Although Israel is not under inThe Israelitense domestic pressure to negotiate an Syria Conflict agreement with Syria, most Israelis unover the Golan derstand that without peace, Israel will Heights: ultimately remain under a constant seUnlike the curity threat from its northern frontier. Israeli-Palestinian Successive Israeli governments have conflict, the Israeli- fully appreciated the fact that Syria not Syrian discord over only holds the key to peace with Lebathe Golan Heights is non, and that it exercises significant probably much easier to influence over Hamas and Hezbollah. resolve, as the conflicting is- Without peace with Syria, Israel will sues between the parties are be denied normalization of relations clearly defined and the solution with the rest of the Arab states. As a is limited to the formula of land result, a growing number of Israelis are for peace—while accommodat- coalescing around the idea that peace with Syria ought to be sought first,

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Middle East

thereby changing the dynamic of the conjunction with US efforts. Based on this historical context, it Arab-Israeli conflict in a fundamental way. Adding to this realization is the appears more than likely that Israel and Syria will reach a comfact that Iran poses prehensive peace by 2020. an existential threat to Without peace This is due mainly to the Israel, and peace with with Syria, Israel fact that neither the SyrSyria could signifiwill be denied ians nor the Israelis have cantly weaken Iran’s normalization of any illusion about the influence in Lebanon requirements for peace, and particularly in relations with the knowing full well that neiGaza. In addition, unrest of the Arab ther side can significantly like the Bush adminisstates. improve their bargaining tration that sought to position through renewed isolate Syria as a state sponsor of terror, the Obama admin- hostilities. istration has opened a direct dialogue The future stability in Iraq: with Damascus, which is likely to lead to a normalization of relations between Six years of devastating war in the two countries and will position the Iraq has left much of the country’s inUnited States to push both Israel and frastructure in ruin, and even more imSyria to resume negotiations toward portant to the future of the country, the achieving a peace agreement. This does Iraq war has torn apart the Iraqi society not rule out the possibility that Turkey, and created a vastly new political and too, may resume its mediating role in social landscape that still remains in 12

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flux. There are, however, a number of facts on the ground that allow for some posturing as to what the future stabilization of Iraq will look like in 2020. Some of these conditions were developed as a consequence of the war, and some exist because of the inherit conditions in Iraq that will dominate the future development in the country. The first is the fact that the Shiite majority has come to power for the first time in Iraq’s history, and is unlikely to relinquish it under any circumstances, as they constitute the majority of the Iraqi population. The new Iraqi constitution is based on democratic principles that allow the various Iraqi provinces to self-govern with some loose federal ties, which might eventually ensure political stability. This, however, bears two potential problems: whether the central government led by the prime minister can limit its power as prescribed by the constitution, and whether or not the

Middle East Sunni provinces will opt to remain as more than anything else offers insight an integral part of the central govern- into the hope of Iraqi people that in the ment, or instead chose a more indepen- next decade Iraq will have a sense of dent path fashioned along the Kurdish stability domestically and with its neighsemi-autonomous entity within the fed- bors. eral system. The passage of an oil law Iran’s nuclear ambitions: and a resolution to the future of Kirkuk would keep the Sunni- Shiite conflict at During the next decade, Iran bay, and would also mitigate the sim- may capture the day-to-day news headmering tension between the Kurds and lines as it continues to experience interthe central government over the future nal political struggles and remains at of Kirkuk. odds with the West in That being said, a connection with its nuBased on this growing number of Iraqis clear program. Wherehistorical context, seem to agree that notas the Islamic revoluit appears more withstanding the enortion might have been than likely that mous problem the country able to succeed had it Israel and Syria is facing in terms of shortwill reach a ages, government services and security, Iraq has the comprehensive potential to recover—not peace by 2020. only because of its natural wealth, but because of the historical industriousness of the Iraqi people, who are ultimately determined to chart their own destiny. However extensive Iran’s influence is over Iraq’s political, commercial and social life, the Iraqi people will not allow any outside power to exercise undue influence over their internal affairs. This also means that following the American troop withdrawal in the coming months, there would be no American military bases left in Iraq, except a security arrangement which will govern the future bilateral relationship between the US and Iraq. Finally, unlike Iran, religion will not be the dominating political force in Iraq, which will translate into a more politically moderate state in its relation to the Arab-Israeli conflict and with its predominantly Sunni neighbors. Since many political, economic, social and security factors have not completely played out as yet, Iraq will still experience many ups and down between now and 2020. But after decades of brutal rule under Saddam Hussein, an eight-year war with Iran, the Gulf war, and the current US war, the Iraqi people have reached a point of exhaustion where in the coming years they will likely focus inward in an attempt to rebuild a semblance of normalcy. This

pursued the principles of a Republic, with a parliament and a government that rules by laws, instead, the Iranian clergy, led by its supreme leader, and the Revolutionary Guards have forfeited the very tenants of the revolution by forcefully amassing dictatorial powers with a tight military rule. The political unrest and instability that has ensued in the wake of the last election may be contained by the use of lethal force, but it is not likely to disappear, primarily because many of the early supporters of the revolution have now risen against the government’s egregious practices. This internal struggle is likely to further complicate Iran’s handling of its

EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Middle East nuclear program, as domestic vulner- national community has in negotiating abilities often translate into a hard-core with Iran that the regime will do its best foreign policy—particularly in connec- to play for time. Should Iran eventually tion with the nuclear dispute with the comply and allow its nuclear material West, which Iran sees as a source of to be shipped to either Russia or Turnational pride. Tehran’s ambitions to key for enrichment, the long-term sucbecome a regional hegemon equipped cess of the regime is still dubious. Iran with nuclear weapons—a most unset- has a growing class of people who see tling prospect not only for Iran’s Sunni the economic benefits the Turks have neighboring Arab states but in particu- gained from engagement in the global lar to Israel—may result in serious in- economy, and they are growing restless ternational action, including an attack under a government relying on subsion Natanz and Qom should the Iranian dies and inhibiting development. Yet regime remain intransigent. should the hubris of the Iranian regime Many other problems continue to continue down the path of internaplague Iran, including a tional defiance on the lack of government sernuclear issue, there are The Shiite majority vices, dependence on the a number of states—led has come to power import of refined gasoby Israel and the US— for the first time line, a crumbling infrawho will strike Iran’s structure and most of all nuclear facilities bein Iraq’s history, an economic atmosphere fore it reaches a viable and is unlikely to that is preventing the breakout capacity. In relinquish it under middle class from engagthis instance, the power any circumstances. ing in the global econostruggles among the my. One thing, however, clerical regime, Revoremains clear: the Iran of today will lutionary Guards, and growing liberal not be the Iran of 2020. A number of reformists may boil over into a serious major developments may take place in domestic conflagration. the next ten years that will shape the But as the Iranian government confuture of Iran. The future of Iran will tinues to struggle with these multiple depend in part on how Iran’s nuclear problems, it may revert back to its earliimpasse with the West is to be resolved. er practices of fomenting troubles elseIt is obvious from the history the inter- where in the region to distract the inter-

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national community, but perhaps this time to no avail. Indeed, many of Iran’s troubles today are likely to be with us in 2020, and many of these problems may become considerably worse.

The war in Afghanistan: Very few countries have been ravaged by so many wars, violent conflicts, and occupation like Afghanistan. The tragedies that have been afflicted on its people by outsiders and by the hands of their own rulers are too many to numerate. The American war in Afghanistan is the second longest war in American history, and it will certainly become the longest war by the time it comes to an end. How Afghanistan will be shaped in the next decade will depend largely on the success of the US mission in the next few years, and the willingness of the Afghan people to take a stake in their country following the US withdrawal. There are a number of objectives that the United States can in fact realize in Afghanistan in the coming year that will shape the direction of the country for the next decade. First, The United States’ objective to weaken and marginalize Al Qaeda must remain the administration’s main focus; this objective is within reach provided that the Pakistani army fully cooperates in this effort. To this end a troop increase and targeted counterinsurgency campaign along the border with Pakistan have some effect on crippling the organization. The second objective is to ensure that in the next 4-5 years Afghanistan develops its own military and internal security forces to maintain its nation-wide security once American forces are fully withdrawn. This, too, is a fundamental prerequisite without which Afghanistan will fall back into the hands of the Taliban and thereby defeat the whole premise of the war. The third objective is the development of a strategy that will distinguish between moderate and hard core Taliban. The administration must keep in mind that not all the Taliban have the same motivation, and continued stability of the country will depend on the extent

Middle East

to which the majority of the moderate ghanistan is constantly changing, and Taliban take stake in their local commu- the strategies effectiveness of military nities and join the process of political and central government will vary in and economical promotion. The fourth each province. The Afghanistan we see objective must focus on sustainable de- a decade from now will depend largely on the flexibility and velopment to provide the agility of US and inmeansâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;capital and limited For the future ternational troops, technologyâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;for self runafter the US the numerous aid ning projects that will cretroops withdraw, organizations, and ate jobs and provide a diga more realistic the local civilians to nified living. In this respect adapt to the changing USAID and the numerous achievement would circumstances. The non-governmental orgabe stability. nature of a state new nizations, both local and to centralized, demointernational, should work in tandem to employ and train thou- cratic government suggests that it will sands of Afghans in agriculture and in- likely be many years before Afghanifrastructural projects that will build up stan is politically secure and economia nascent Afghan economy and work cally viable. For the future after the force. Sustainable development will US troops withdraw, a more realistic provide the economic core and future achievement would be stability. grassroots for the political and social Conclusion: development of Afghanistan, and will be instrumental in eradicating poverty The Middle East is known for its in the long-run. constant surprises and unpredictabilThe situation on the ground in Af- ity, which has made its people capable

of enduring and outlasting the numerous wars and occupations of the past century. Successive American administrations have attempted to understand the nature of the region, and often intervened to remake the Middle East in its own image. Yet if anything, the deep diversity and cultural history of the Middle East shows a proud people whose survival instincts are unmatched. The countries mentioned have proved capable of withstanding war and conflict for decades. Yet as the world is opening up to an ever-globalized, open, and interdependent society, the greatest struggle of the Middle East in the next decade will be to reconcile its traditional culture with the advantages of a globalized world. The threat of terror and violence throughout region will undoubtedly still be prevalent ten years from now, but the ultimate resolve of the moderates to overcome this legacy and pursue a more peaceful and open Middle East will remain constant and unwavering. EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Military Transformation

On the Threshold of Digital Battlefields By Arda Mevlutoglu Author

he renowned military strategist, won with men.” This very true stateCarl von Clausewitz is probably ment may be said to be evolving into best known for his quote, “War something like, “Battles maybe fought is merely a continuation of politics by with weapons, but they are won with inother means.” This statement reflects formation.” Information, in fact, has always the relationship between military strategy, agency and politics. Armies have been an essential tool for military maalways acted as an agent of national neuvers. The very basic questions of self and situational awarewill throughout history, ness have remained with evolving weapThis very the same: “Where are ons and tactics. George transformation is friendly units?”, “Where S. Patton, the famous going to shape the is the enemy?”, “What American World War II defense systems, are the properties of the general once said, “Batenvironment?”, and so tles maybe fought with technologies and on. What has changed, weapons, but they are strategies of the

coming decade.

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or developed, are the means and systems that answer these questions and communicate the responses to the army as a whole. One proverb says, “It is much more easier to fight a hundred individuals than it is to fight an army of a hundred men.” To function as a unified entity an army must move, act and react in coordination with itself, which requires close communication and coordination between its sub-units. This very basic problem of communication and coordination was solved by messengers, smoke, flags and trumpets in ancient times, but now there are computers, satellite communication systems, high power radios and sophisticated sensors. Since the end of the Cold War, military systems, tactics and strategies have been evolving rapidly, reflecting a vision in which the conventional vertical chain of command is replaced by a spherical network of individuals, “a system of systems,” in which each unit bilaterally exchanges information with others and distributes it to other assets. This evolution, or “transformation,” as most military circles prefer to call it, was enabled by developments in Information Technologies (IT). Advances in computer, communication, data storage and handling systems have geometrically increased the capability to generate, process, analyze, distribute and store information. This dramatic increase in information processing capability presents both advantages and

Military Transformation

challenges to defense and security strat- This very transformation is going to egists and decision makers. Described shape the defense systems, technologies as “Network Centric Warfare” (NCW) and strategies of the coming decade. or “Network Enabled Capability” and The Past: Evolution a number of other phrases, almost all of which contain the word “network,” a The First World War reflected the new approach has been effects of industrializadeveloped to overcome tion and mass production The Gulf War to this challenge. on societies, economies represent a major To understand the and eventually, militarturning point in true nature of the paraies. Battles were mostly digm shift that defense fought in the fields, in military technology and security decision trenches. However, both and defense makers face, the develsides discovered that, strategy. opments that led to this unlike the massive field inevitable situation and battles of the previous their roots in the first decades of the centuries, the decisive outcome was to twentieth century must be examined. be obtained by neutralizing, paralyz-

ing or destroying the enemy’s industrial capability to produce and supply more weapons. With the introduction of long range artillery and especially aircraft, armies’ effective range extended far beyond the field where the armies’ fought. Cities contained facilities, factories, railways, and roads. Cities also contained people who were fit for fighting, fit for working in factories, and fit for supplying the front. And cities were well within range. The Second World War saw the triumph of mechanization on the battlefield. This triumph is symbolized by the German tactic known as “Blitzkrieg,” or “Lightning War,” the successful coordination of air and ground, or and air EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Military Transformation

and sea assets often resulted in quick trol, weapons and life support systems, and decisive victories with minimal loss- all of which required more time, traines on both sides. The shocking battles ing and skill to operate and maintain over Poland, the Low Countries, France than their predecessors. During the Cold War era, all deand the first stages of the war on the Russian front proved without question fense and security ideas were based that effective communication and co- on the interminable rivalry between the Atlantic and Soviet ordination between all Blocs. Europe, the Atof an army’s assets proInteroperability lantic and the Pacific duced effective power requires a Oceans remained the projection and fire convast array of areas with the most pocentration. This conclusophisticated tential for the outbreak sion led to the developC4ISR systems of hostilities. Both sides’ ment of more and more military strategy, tactics complex weapons, senwith differing and system requirements sor and communication makes, models and depended on the other’s systems, introducing the specifications to corresponding assets. term “Human Machine communicate with NATO and the Warsaw Interface,” the medium each other. Pact armies prepared for through which the pilot, a battle which never took the driver, the gunner, Except for the threat of biologii.e., the “operator,” communicated i t d with ith place. l E and controlled his/her system. An air- cal, chemical and nuclear weapons, both craft no longer was a machine to fly, but parties seemed to continue to expand a system of systems that was equipped on the developments made and leswith navigation and communication in- sons learned in World War II, namely, struments, target acquisition, flight con- mechanized warfare, communications 18

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and long range guided weapon systems. Both sides were at least partially aware of the weapons, aims, tactics and strategy of the other. But the collapse of the Iron Curtain and subsequent events changed all this. Iraq’s 1991 invasion of neighboring Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War represent a major turning point in military technology and defense strategy. A number of new, innovative and complex technologies and tactics were employed on a large scale for the first time: Radar evading aircraft, the deployment of sophisticated C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Control, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) systems, widespread use of guided weapon systems against high value targets such as communications nodes, infrastructure and logistics systems, the execution of combined air/ sea/ground operations and the intensive use of elite special operations forces showed that a force with maximum levels of training, coordination and mobility can outperform its opponent even if it is relatively

Military Transformation small in size. After the Gulf War came another shock, one that would affect the defense and security of the entire world. The collapse of the Soviet Union meant that the Atlantic Block and NATO no longer had an opponent. NATO’s very raison d’être ceased to be. This change of situation eventually affected defense and security planning, especially in terms of budget allocation and governments’ willingness to develop new warfare technologies. Most countries were freed from the burden of maintaining huge armies, supporting large numbers of sophisticated, and thus expensive to operate and maintain, weapon systems. Defense budgets began to be cropped, lots of equipment was sent to depots and scrapyards, and units were disbanded. No more MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), no more SDI (Space Defense Initiative), no more proxy wars in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. Then came 9/11.

The Present: Transformation The terrorist attacks on World Trade Center and Pentagon marked the beginning of a new era, shaped by asymmetry, decentralization and unpredictability. Terrorism, piracy, smuggling, large scale natural disasters and ethnic conflicts have emerged as the prime threats to national security. Militaries had do adapt to this changing threat environment. Multinational operations, including peacemaking and peacekeeping missions, became routine. These types of missions require “interoperability” among participant militaries, which can be described as the ability of diverse units and platforms to operate jointly. Interoperability requires a vast array of sophisticated C4ISR systems with differing makes, models and specifications to communicate with each other. Thus it also requires common standards in the design, development, maintenance and operation of these systems. The other factor that required military transformation were advances in communications and information technologies. Processors, sensors and elec-

internet connection may very well pose a threat to national security, regardless of the astonishing asymmetry between the attacker and the target. Since the last decade of twentieth century, internet and multimedia technologies have been developing at an ever increasing rate. The number of internet users has been rising geometrically and audio, video and textual materials can now be shared much more easily. Now every individual is able to act as a freelance journalist, photographer, reporter and publisher on blogs, forums and social networks. On the other side of the coin, every individual also has an even greater range of tools at their disThe Future: Asymmetry posal for stalling, damaging or destroyJust as conventional armies were ing the “information highway.” The transformed in order to face the chal- terms “hacker” and “hacking a site” lenges, threats and requirements of the have become constant variables in daily twenty-first century battlefield, the na- life. From personal relations to governture of these very threats ment services, each is transforming. The counentity connected to the Being “cost terpart of an army is no internet is subject to a effective” has longer necessarily another constant threat, be it a become the prime similar army. With the computer virus, a troobjective of help of technology, small jan or a determined groups of determined inmilitary Research hacker, or even worse, dividuals can easily harm hacker groups. and Development economies, societies and The cyber attack on (R&D government services. UnEstonia in 2007 was a like the standard twenmajor warning for detieth century guerilla armed with an cision makers who had been reluctant AK-47 assault rifle, asymmetric threats to take the necessary steps. Followed by in the twenty-first century are diverse in the political tension between Estonia form, motives, tools and tactics. Even a and Russia, Russian computer hackers couple of personal computers with an began a well planned and coordinated tronics became more capable and yet cheaper to acquire, develop and operate. This resulted in platforms able to acquire, process, distribute and store more information. The eventual outcome of this increase in capability enabled effective downsizing, i.e., the ability of a single platform to perform more tasks than a given larger number of predecessor platforms. Being “cost effective” has become the prime objective of military Research and Development (R&D), since it has become much more expensive to develop and manufacture platforms, as well as to train the personnel needed to operate them.

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Military Transformation

cyber assault on Estonian internet infrastructure, focusing mainly on government and social services. Since Estonia is a country in which almost all of the legal and governmental services are provided over the internet, the nation’s entire economic and administrative system collapsed. Immediately after the incident, Estonia opened the Cooperative Cyber Defense Centre of Excellence and began providing training and services in cyber warfare to NATO countries, in the light of lessons learned from 2007 experience. Cyber warfare was also used in 2008, again by the Russians, but this time to support its own troops in the field. During the conflict with Georgia in August 2008, Russian hacker groups quickly organized and started a coordinated cyber attack on Georgian internet sites. What

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makes this incident interesting is the up to one meter resolution satellite imfact that a huge number of “volunteers” agery of the earth. Not long ago such also participated in the assault. Several high resolution images were only availeasy-to-use program files were distrib- able to military and intelligence servicuted in Russian discussion forums and es. Casual internet users now have the web sites for the use of less experienced ability to browse through 3D graphics and less skilled computer users. This of almost the entire planet. These ap“recruitment” effort proved successful plications make each and every user an and a cyber volunteer army was quickly IMINT (Imagery Intelligence) analyst. Supported by user groups, formed. mailing lists and discusAnother example Complex Artificial sion forums, such applicaof how an individual Intelligence (AI) tions have become valucomputer user with systems and able sources of OSINT medium to minimal IT algorithms also (Open Source Intelliskills and experience ease the workload gence). In the very near can act as an “intelligence analyst” is the of human personnel future, with the combination of very high speed widespread use of web operating such internet connections, based terrain and satsystems ellite imagery services. high performance smartphones and web based apSuch services provide li i plications, every user will be an integral part of the cyber world, both user and target of massive amounts of information generated every second. Increased bandwidth, i.e., rate of data transfer, enabled C4ISR systems to play a more important role in coordinating units on the battlefield. Complex Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems and algorithms also ease the workload

Military Transformation of human personnel operating such systems, paving the way for Unmanned Vehicles (UV). Found in a variety of forms according to their operating medium (Unmanned Air Vehicle, UAV; Unmanned Ground Vehicle, UGV; Unmanned Sea Vehicle, USV), UV’s are systems which have partial or full control over the course of their mission, either following a prepared plan or by employing decision making algorithms. Mainly used for intelligence gathering and surveillance missions, UV’s are beginning to be equipped with guided, long range weapon systems, supporting friendly troops while collecting mission-critical information and transferring data to command and control centers in real time by way of high capacity datalink communication systems. The trend is towards fully autonomous, armed UV’s conducting the most dangerous missions, missions for which decision makers cannot afford to risk Economic losses personnel. UV’s can also be conand maintaining weapons furnish the sidered the outcome of public support ability to strike high valanother factor, namely, inhibit the will ue military and industrithe very basic element of industrialized al targets with extremeof warfare: the warfightnations to initiate ly high precision, thus er. Today’s warfighter is they are cost-effective, and/or conduct war the operator of a variety and more importantly, of sensors and systems. they decrease the risk Equipped with direction of collateral damage to civilian assets, finding and communication systems, which must be avoided if we want to target detection and aiming sensors, win the “hearts and minds” of the pubhealth monitoring and life support syslic. In World War II the destruction of tems, it is becoming more and more a building size target required about 50 expensive and time-consuming to train and field the individual soldier. More bomber aircraft each with an average of importantly, mainly due to changing ten crew members, and the probability social values, the loss of each soldier of mission success was moderate. Now hugely affects public morale and sup- striking an equivalent target normally port, which are highly important to the requires a single aircraft and risks the conduct of national and/or multination- life of only one fighter. The probability al operations, given that the public’s of mission success is near one hundred power is boosted by mass media and percent. communication technologies. The Beyond: Digital Battlefields In addition to UV’s, another asset The basic questions a commander that decreases the risk of losing personnel is long range guided weapon asks to himself have mostly remained systems, often referred to as “standoff the same throughout the centuries, but weapons.” Supported by various sensor the way armies fight battles is changing and guidance/control systems, standoff rapidly. Conventional armies are be-

coming tools of deterrence and peacetime operations, otherwise known as “Operations Other Than War.” Economic losses and maintaining public support inhibit the will of industrialized nations to initiate and/or conduct war, especially in a world where rival blocs no longer exist. However, asymmetric threats are on the rise. Terrorism, piracy and smuggling are having more adverse effects on economies and daily lives, posing much more danger to national security than ever before. Additionally, the tools and tactics associated with these threats are also evolving. Modern armies are built for fighting wars against opponents that resemble themselves, but in the past 10 years, it has been problematic for them to define, analyze and develop countermeasures against these threats. Technology is in the service of both attacker and the defender. Information will be the weapon and the target of modern armies. That’s why modern battles will be fought with weapons, but they will be won with information. EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Food Security

Eurasian Food Security in 2020: Two Scenarios By F. William Engdahl Author

urasian populations face an unprecedented challenge over the coming decade to secure adequate nutrition and healthy food for their populations, and at the same time an extraordinary opportunity. The main problem we face is not a problem of an exploding population. Rather it is a problem of the nutritional quality of the food we produce and consume across Eurasia from Turkey to China to Russia and Central Asia.

Why do I state the problem thus? First, to dismiss the false “over-population” argument, it should be noted that the net reproduction rate across the world over the past four decades of aggressive birth control programs sponsored by the US Government and by private interests, above all the Rockefeller Population Council, is intended to drastically reduce population growth among developing country peoples. It has succeeded to the point the greatest

potential problem the world will face in the next several decades will be like that Japan, Germany, Italy and other industrialized nations already face: lack of young growing populations, a demographic “population death.” The present birth rates across the EU are below net replacement levels meaning slow demographic death. The same is the case across much of Eurasia especially the former Soviet Union countries. Population growth will not be our problem. The greatest danger to Eurasia’s food security over the next decade will come from the threat of agribusiness, the industrial production of food purely for profit. Some historical background is helpful.

The beginnings of Industrialized Food One of the most prevalent myths about modern agribusiness industrial methods of food production is that through introduction of modern technology—mechanization of harvesting and plowing, introduction of modern chemical fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides as well as methods of mass production of animal products via socalled factory farming techniques—that we have made significant advances to ending world hunger via modern agri22

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Food Security

wheat rice and other grains to give evculture and agribusiness. The truth is just the opposite. Since ery human being on earth a daily diet mass production and industrialized ag- of 3500 calories and that enough meat riculture has been introduced, begin- milk and eggs are produced to give evning in the United States already in the ery person one pound per day of those 1950’s and spreading to the developing protein foods. In fact today we produce world first via the much-touted Green an excess of food per capita larger than Revolution of the Rockefeller Founda- ever in human history. Yet more than 1 tion in Mexico and Inbillion people go hungry dia, world hunger and The greatest danger each day. malnutrition has draThe answer to the ridto Eurasia’s food matically increased. dle is that industrializasecurity over The latest estimate tion of agriculture and its the next decade from the World Bank creation of a global mass is that some 1.02 bilmarket has in turn driven will come from lion people in the world hundreds of millions of the threat of go hungry and that each farmers and peasants off agribusiness. year, 3 million undertheir land and destroyed five children die because food independence for they are undernourished. Yet recent the first time to such an extent in manstudies by the UN Food and Agriculture kind’s history. As millions have been Organization confirm that every year driven off their land by “free trade” the world agriculture produces enough rules such as in the World Trade Or-

ganization, they have been driven into the cities creating the modern phenomenon of sprawling slums where millions go hungry for lack of work or adequate housing. This is a phenomenon, tragically, across Eurasia today especially in Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union in Central Asia. Added to the equation of agribusiness since 1994 has been the mass-scale introduction of patented genetically engineered seeds, GMO, by a handful of Western agrichemical giant corporations, led by Monsanto of St. Louis and DuPont’s Pioneer Seeds, Dow Chemical and the Swiss Syngenta. These companies, backed by the US Government are imposing enormous pressure on developing countries to not only industrialize their agriculture, but also to open their land to free planting of GMO patented seeds---a new form of Serfdom. They spread their unnatural EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Food Security seeds by bribery, deception and above all by a well-financed media campaign that wrongly states GMO plants raise the per hectare harvest and require significantly less chemicals. Both have been proven to be false claims yet the myth goes on.

The origins of agribusiness When attacking a myth as pervasive as that which claims industrial agricul-

EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

ture since the Second World War has lace, the former Agriculture Secretary, ended mass starvation and improved went to Mexico to discuss how to inthe quality of life, we must be clear crease food production with the Mexiwhat we are talking about. Here a short can government. Wallace had founded history of agribusiness origins is instruc- the seed company Pioneer Hi-Bred tive. International, later a DuPont company In 1941, before Pearl Harbor had and one of the Big Four GMO seed gibrought the United States into the war, ants. Nelson Rockefeller of the Standard Oil The Wallace-Rockefeller Mexico fortune, and US Vice report emphasized the President Henry A. Walneed to breed crops that They spread their had higher yields. At the unnatural seeds by time, corn was the major bribery, deception crop of Mexico, along and above all by with wheat and beans. In 1943, as a result of the a well-financed project, the Rockefeller media campaign. Foundation started the Mexican Agricultural Program (MAC), headed by the Rockefeller Foundation. The program included a young plant pathologist from the Rockefeller Foundation named Norman Borlaug. The Rockefeller family was preparing the first steps of what was to become a major transformation of world agriculture markets after the war. That same year, as Nelson Rockefeller and Wallace were surveying Latin America for agricultural opportunities for the United States, Laurance and Nelson Rockefeller both began buying up, on the cheap, vast holdings of highquality Latin American farmland. The family was diversifying their fortune from oil into agriculture. This was not simple family farming, however, but global ‘agribusiness’, as it began to be called in the 1950’s. Oil was the core of the new agribusiness economics. And oil was something the Rockefellers knew cold. The economic model of global monopoly concentration they had built up in oil over decades would be the model for transforming the nature of world agriculture into a global ‘agribusiness.’ By the time Roosevelt named Nelson Rockefeller to be Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America, Rockefeller was fully involved with food and agribusiness. In 1943, Edward O’Neal, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined Nelson and

Food Security

other top US businessmen at Chapulte- free their trade for US companies to pec, Mexico, for a conference on Inter- enter and dominate. Back in the USA, the RockefellAmerican cooperation organized by the ers transformed traditional American US State Department. At Chapultepec, Rockefeller agreed family farming into a giant pool of monopoly companies able that US agriculture to crush any rivals by needed new export For the new the 1990’s. Government markets. The markets corporate regulations, food safety of Latin America were agribusiness giants, standards and monopoly coming into their view. the transformation laws were systematically Nelson said he was dissolved, especially durlooking for new ‘fronwas quite ing the 1980’s Reagantiers.’ Rockefeller, in a profitable. Bush era. Agribusiness true spirit of ‘free marbegan to transform the ket,’ demanded that the Americas be closed to all but US busi- face of traditional American farming in ness interests, while demanding that the ways so drastic as to be incomprehenworld, including governments of Latin sible. America, open their doors to US prodWhat began was the merger and ucts, including agriculture. Free trade consolidation of American food prowas a slogan that was to be applied only duction, out of the hands of family selectively; others would be required to farmers and into giant corporate global

concentrations. The farmer became a contract employee responsible only for feeding and maintaining concentrations of thousands of animals in giant pens. He no longer owned the animals or even the farm. He effectively became like a feudal serf, indentured through huge debts, not to a Lord of the manor, but to a global multinational corporation such as Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, Smithfield Foods or ConAgra. For the new corporate agribusiness giants, the transformation was quite profitable. Family farmers’ income plunged as they lost control of their market to the agribusiness giants by the end of the 1990’s. At the same time, the average annual return for the industrialized US food processing sector rose to 23% by 1999. Hundreds of thousands of independent family farmers were forced out of EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Food Security

business with the spread of agribusiness costs of the destruction of the Ameriand its large operations. They couldn’t can family farm by agribusiness, as the compete. Traditional farming is by its economic basis of entire rural communature labor intensive, while industrial nities collapsed and rural towns became factory farming is capital intensive. ghost towns. Farmers who did manage to raise the A Green Revolution money for animal confinement systems quickly discovered that the small savThe Rockefellers’ Green Revoluings in labor costs were tion began in Mexico not enough to cover the and was spread across The destruction increasing costs of faciliLatin America during of domestic ties, energy, caging, and the 1960’s. Soon it was agriculture and drugs. They were caught introduced in India farmers is an in the trap of debt. and elsewhere in Asia. The number of hog The ‘revolution’ was essential part of farms in the US dea veiled effort to gain a geopolitical creased, while the numcontrol over food prostrategy of using ber of hogs sold induction in key target “food as a weapon” countries of the develcreased. Consolidation resulted in just 3 percent oping world, promoted of US hog farms producing more than in the name of free enterprise market 50 percent of the hogs. A report to the efficiency against alleged ‘communist US Secretary of Agriculture in the late inefficiency.’ 1990’s described the enormous social In the aftermath of World War 26

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II, American chemical companies emerged as the world’s largest. The most prominent companies—DuPont, Dow Chemical, Monsanto, Hercules Powder and others—had a glut of nitrogen production capacity which they had built up, at US taxpayer expense, to produce bombs and shells for the war effort. An essential chemical for making bombs and explosives, nitrogen could also form the basis for nitrate fertilizers. The chemical industry developed the idea of creating large new markets for their nitrogen in the form of fertilizers, ammonia nitrate, anhydrous ammonia, for both domestic US agriculture and for export. The nitrogen fertilizer industry was part of the powerful lobby of the Rockefeller Standard Oil circles which, by the end of the War, included DuPont, Dow Chemicals and Hercules Powder among others. The global marketing of the new

Food Security agri-chemicals after the war also solved the problem of finding significant new markets for the American petroleum and petrochemical industry as well as the grain cartel, a group of four to five companies then including Cargill, Powerful financial Continental Grain, elites based in New Bunge and ADM. York and London The largest grain stand behind US traders were Ameriagribusiness. can. Agribusiness was going global and the Rockefeller F Foundation d i shaped h d that agribusiness globalization. With a monopoly on the agricultural chemicals and on the hybrid seeds, American agribusiness giants were intent on dominating the global market in agriculture trade. As Kissinger noted in the 1970’s, ‘If you control the food you control the people.’ The agribusiness project of US big corporations and banks expanded to engulf the global markets since then. In conjunction with debt crises in developing countries and across the countries of Eurasia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) invariably ordered countries to slash domestic food subsidies, to devalue their currency and to cut government regulation. The door is open to giant agribusiness to move in. In country after country today food that was once locally produced at affordable prices by domestic farmers has given was to mass produced food imports. The products are subsidized by the US Government and as well the EU and in effect are “dumped” on developing tion policies. The list included Turkey, markets under WTO rules on free agri- India, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia and several African countries. China and culture trade. The effect of this agribusiness model the Soviet Union were left out due to is destroying food self sufficiency across the Cold War. Eurasia today. The Eurasian Food Since Henry Kissinger drafted a top Prospects for 2020 secret policy paper for Presidents Nixon We might ask what all this has to do and Ford in the mid-1970s, NSSM-200 with the perspective for Eurasia in ten official US foreign policy, as I describe years? The answer is everything. If the in my book Ölüm Tohumlari, has been nations of Eurasia continue to remain to promote population reduction in desatellite economies of the dollar world veloping countries with large raw mateand of US finance and political control, rials resources. Kissinger made a “priwe can be certain that the trends of the ority list” of 13 developing countries to past twenty or so years to destroy dobe targeted by US population reduc-

mestic farming and replace it with industrial food products, especially GMO products of proven health dangers, that the degree of hunger and malnutrition will increase from China to Russia, from Turkey to Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan and across the Middle East region. The destruction of domestic agriculture and farmers is an essential part of a geopolitical strategy of using “food as a weapon” as Kissinger again called it during the 1970’s. The Pentagon calls this part of their Full Spectrum Dominance—control of everything everywhere. Powerful financial elites based in EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Food Security

New York and London stand behind extremely poor African states. There is as well a second scenario, US agribusiness. Names like David Rockefeller, George Soros, Bill Gates one we might call “national food sewith his Green Revolution for Africa, curity” scenario. Here the nations of are all involved in programs as well Eurasia come closer to one another in economic cooperation, to reduce population increasingly on a bilatgrowth in the world. If the countries of Before World War Two eral basis not on the baEurasia continue the world understood sis of WTO rules set in to adopt the WTO correctly that a growWashington or by IMF rules of the “Rich ing, young and dynamic rules meant to aid Western giant corporations at population growth was Mens’ Club”, the expense of developing essential to economic outlook in 2020 is nations. prosperity. Now we are indeed grim. A possible scenario supposed to believe the would be that the presopposite is true. It isn’t. If the countries of Eurasia continue ent Eurasian nations of the Shanghai to adopt the WTO rules of the “Rich Cooperation Organization (SCO)— Mens’ Club” and destroy their domestic China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhfood production for the sake of cheap stan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan—develop industrial imports whether mass pro- close economic ties not unlike the early duced chickens or GMO corn or wheat, European Economic Community durthe outlook in 2020 is indeed grim. ing the 1960’s. They respect each othThere will be mass starvation and eco- er’s national sovereignty and especially logical catastrophe as today in certain food sovereignty. Farmer prices are 28

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high enough to encourage farmers to stay on the land. Cheap Western industrial agribusiness imports are highly taxed to make them unattractive. GMO crops and products are absolutely forbidden by laws on the health and food safety. Natural food production is encouraged by respective governments across Eurasia and harvest yields expand dramatically as a result of education of local farmers. The improvement in food quality results in longer life spans and healthier populations. The SCO agrees to enlarge its membership to include Turkey and several Middle East countries. On that basis Eurasia becomes the cradle of food security and of economic prosperity for the entire planet while the United States and the countries that most adopted the free market US economic model—UK, New Zealand, Australia—struggle with declining populations, lower living standards and depression.

Defence Industry

Future Projections of Turkish Defense Industry: Regional Interest By Murad Bayar Undersecretary of Turkish Defense Industry (SSM)

he continuation of stable development of Turkish defense industry, which has been rapidly improving since 2002, is dependent on improving export and having the capability of design; thus, to this end, we aim lowering the dependency on critical sub-system, component and technology and increasing the number of indigenous products with the improvement of design capability. These domestically designed products is planned to contribute to sustainable growth of defense

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industry with the support of firms that produced them and the realization of modernization. When, national defense industry reach the level of developing product based strategies, studies will be done in becoming world leader with the support of products that are developed by supplier industry or main contractor and have the potential for being world leader. Products that are developed by national industry has a serious success in export, thus we can observe this fact by looking at the year by year increas-

ing export volume. We believe that the deterrence of Armed Forces would increase with the equipment of products that are nationally developed.

2009-2016 Strategy â&#x20AC;&#x153;2009-2016 Sectoral Strategy Documentâ&#x20AC;?, which was published by the Undersecretariat in order to lead the defense industry, sets out particular goals and aims. Generally these are; - Indigenous development - SME and supplier industry approach - Export and offset - R&D concept - Test and certification - Standards - Human resources - Expectations from sector firms - Sub-sector strategies The document also includes aims and goal under the general strategies for Sub-sector strategies; Land, Air, Navy, Electronic warfare and sensors, Battle Electronic Information Systems and Missile, Ammunition and Weapon Systems. In accordance with these aims and goals, possible investment items have been presented to Turkish defense industry. Strategies that are developed according to these aims and goals are:

Defence Industry

- Sustaining complete sub-sector production in land vehicles - In the naval sub-sector, complete production of surface platforms with domestic facility and capabilities. - In the air sub-sector, production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and modernization of planes. - In the electronic warfare and sensors (EW&S) sub-sector, domestic production of all EW&S systems. - In the battle electronic information system sub-sector, production of electronics and software of all systems that are procured and performing system level design, integration and tests of a satellite by domestic capabilities. - In the missile ammunition and

weapon system sub-sector, design and and uniqueness) production of short and intermediate - Advantageous in respect of costs range missile systems and every calibre There should be items that would bring of weapons. high-technology Moreover, “2009- Having critical imDomestically 2016 Sectorial Strategy portance. designed products Document” of UnderFurthermore, Underis planned to secretariat of Defense secretariat of Defense contribute to Industry aimed specialIndustry is supporting ization of defense indefense industry for the sustainable growth dustry firms. In case of of defense industry. realization of aims and possible investment are goals that are set out by satisfies certain criteria, the “2009-2016 Sectoral Undersecretariat would give priority in Strategy Document”. Decreasing fisupporting such investments. Criteria nancial problems and the risks of firms are: during the investment is aimed through - There is no other similar project credit support to firms,which satisfy criwithin the selected field (Originality teria provided that their resources are EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Defence Industry

rope defense market. - In addition, our firms have export Target Countries opportunity at the multi national platTurkish defense industry have a vi- forms like EU and NATO and it would sion of export to third states through be beneficial to utilize this opportunity. - Gulf States, Caucastrategic cooperation sus, Near and Far East rather than state to state The deterrence (Pakistan, Malaysia, export under the light of of Armed Forces Indonesia, South Kolatest sectoral improvewould increase rea etc.) North Africa, ments of the industry. with the equipment South Africa Republic - The primary goal in and through co-operarespect to Europe is imof products that tion sub-Saharan Africa provement of bi-lateral are nationally are the main targeted trade with states that the developed. cooperation areas. volume defense industry Thus, in recent times, cooperation is high and export oriented visits and delegation balancing of reciprocal trade - Furthermore,improvement of ex- meetings have been intensified. port volume would be realized by takCivil Sector Cooperation ing part in procurement chain of multinational corporations, which dominate Today, when we look at the defense the market, in the process of our de- sector, interactions and cooperation fense industry firmsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; integration to Eu- with civil sector is often observed. Turadequate.

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key is one of the states that can effectively utilize this relationship. For example, in Turkey, a firm that operate in automotive sector is also producing tanks and a firm that produces boats and yachts is also producing gun boats. As the Undersecretariat of Defense Industry, we are aware of the necessity of providing every possible support and contribution for pairing up, integration, structuring and improvement of high quality and technology that defense industry bring and sharer sectors outside of the defense industry (like automative, energy, telecommunication etc.) Consequently, in line with main aims that are set out in 2007-2011 Strategic Plan, we published 2009-2016 Defense Industry Sectoral Strategy Document and Sub-Industry Integration Principles Document. Private â&#x20AC;&#x153;Design Officesâ&#x20AC;? will be encouraged for finding indigenous do-

Defence Industry mestic solutions in the scope for facilitating integration of main contractor, SME and sub-industry. â&#x20AC;&#x153;SME Consultancy Centerâ&#x20AC;? was founded by the end of 2009 with the coordination of chambers of industry and defense industry organizations for realization of aims; facilitating integration of main contractor, SME and subindustry, establishing design offices and providing compatibility in defense industry quality and standards. The undersecretariat is supporting clusters for aviation, marine etc. for increasing of the effectiveness of both defense sector and civil sector firms. Furthermore, industrial events are being held as a part of Projects. Such industrial events, in accordance with the aims of Undersecretariat of Defense Industry, seek for meeting system, subsystem and components need through domestic capabilities and increasing the level of domestic production through informing defense firms that desires to take part in our Defense Industry sector and civil sector firms. In conclusion, as the Undersecretariat, we are not only cooperating with defense industry sector but at the same time cooperating with civil sector, which would like to work with the defense industry. Activities for reaching the level of domestic production and transcending this level in the future also includes interaction and sharing with other sectors, which is one of Turkey is one of the main policies of our Unthe states that can dersecretariat. effectively utilize Defense industry prodIndustry, when we defense-civil sector ucts and services, which look at defense inrequired high level of exdustry firms, we relationship. perience, technology and observe that they know-how, and operation are also operating in of defense industry firms that provide civil sector, especially in telecommunisuch products and services in civil sec- cation and energy sectors. Consequenttor would increase, as a natural conse- ly, we are providing consultancy to the quence of job, their rate of competitive- firms for the sustainment of operations ness and rate of turnover. in such sectors. Furthermore, the Undersecretariat Non-NATO Target Countries is supporting dual-use products, which Financial crisis in 2008 had serious could be utilized in both defense indusaffects on national budgets. Like in try and civil sector, since it would proevery sector, defense sector also went vide cost-effectiveness. through cost reduction measures. DeAs the Undersecretariat of Defense

crease in defense procurement level have been observed in even the leading European states in defense sector like Spain, the United Kingdom and Germany. Consequently, pressures of increasing costs and global stagnation direct states to develop more joint projects. With in the international defense market, there is a serious trend in joint production. In addition, tactical reconnaissance, command and control systems, strategic air defense, space and intelligence issues are gaining priority within the sector. In accordance with meeting the needs of Turkish Armed Forces through EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Defence Industry

utilizing Turkish Defense Industry’s al- enables states to acquire cost effective ready existing facilities and capabilities, high technology in a short period of workings are continuing in establishing time with lower costs. Because of this, the structure that would carry out De- multi-national platforms gains promifense Industry to 21st century and in- nence especially among the states that creasing the use of resources, time and have developing defense industry. Furthermore, Turkey personnel to optimum is participating A400M level with in the frameThe project, which would work of Bi-lateral and Undersecretariat is meet the Europe’s deMulti-lateral Defense supporting dual-use mand for strategic airlift Industry Cooperation products, since it need in great extend, activities. under the auspices of In accordance with would provide costOrganization for Joint the Strategic aims of effectiveness. Armament Cooperation the Undersecretariat, (OCCAR). Another involvement in international projects and participating as a project is Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) leader country at least in one project Project. They are important with reare important issues. Departing from spect to former being European project this point, possible projects either with- and latter being transatlantic cooperain the framework of NATO or transat- tion project under the leadership of the United States. Turkey have significant lantic cooperation are being followed. As it’s known, multi-lateral coop- responsibilities in both projects and we eration projects are important tool that started to observe positive concrete re34

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flection of these projects in defense industry. Our firms have significant work share in both projects. Similar NonNATO multi-lateral projects that are being tracked are evaluated as investments for the future of our country. On this path, SSM is continuing its efforts in assuming leadership in various international project. During the past periods, there have been intense contacts with various states for cooperation. Export element is gaining importance on the basis of balanced and equal cooperation for meeting joint needs and taking into consideration of third countries’ needs within this framework. International projects should not be perceived as only acquisition of high technology or the possibility of rapid integration to international defense sector. When, we consider that projects are being done within a joint pool, it is a fact that these would lighten defense burden on the national budgets.

Conflict Zones

Potential Conflict Zones in Eurasia: The End of a Historical Intermission By Ozer Cetinkaya

aiding shepherd tribes is like a bear who destroys the bee hive while trying to steal from it. Oppenheimer uses this analogy while describing how people submit during state formation as transformation from bear to bee-master. No doubt, since Oppenheimer many new ideas have been added to theories of the state. However, none of them have described the contemporary age with such apti-

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tude while presenting the birth of state. At the end of the Cold War, contemporary models of the state were reduced to a single option. The state was proclaimed an endless ‘civitas diaboli.’ Society, on the other hand, was the eternal ‘civitas dei.’ However, the historical intermission that began with the end of the Cold War has come to an end. As the twentieth century began with the assassination of Franz Ferdi-

nand, September 11 was the starting point of the twenty-first century, and it points to three fundamental changes that will determine the age’s ideological identity: A. With the political activation of the Third World, the entire human race has become politically active for the first time. B. The Far East is winning for itself the hegemony of the Atlantic World. C. Global problems (climate change, hunger, poverty, insufficient resources, etc.) will trigger new polarizations. Eurasia is the primary region where all of these things will be experienced, since this is the region where the powers that threaten US dominance over the oceans are rising. Low intensity and short term conflicts, the aftershocks of the New World Order, have been occurring in Eurasia. The pressure of Western bloc is causing an accumulation of energy in Central Asia and the Pacific. In these regions, low intensity and short term tremors will be experienced, but this time they will be forerunners. We see that the work of Western strategists and scientists in particular focuses on Third World countries as potential conflict and war zones. However, it would be incorrect to say that Third World countries are the only

Conflict Zones

THE POLAR REGIONS:

Beyond this general view, there are communities at risk, with the potential transformation of this risk into crisis. ten regions that have the potential for Thus, warnings of some potential risk conflict due to their special structures. are to be found in every region and naI. The Polar Caps: Deep Fear tion, and in certain regions these warnings have been intensifying as a funcHumanity’s relationship with nature tion of regional and national economic, should be renegotiated in global sense, political, social and cultural indicators. but for now a solid decision appears The shift of economic development to be impossible. Regions have been to the East is a plain reality. The emer- changed by global climate change and gence of new markets implies new al- in the next ten years forces seeking to liances and conflicts. control these regions will The natural resource be brought into opposiIt would be needs of the rapidly tion. The first signs of this incorrect to say growing East have can already be seen. that Third World the potential to cause The competition to excountries are the conflict between old ploit the natural resourconly communities and new powers. Comes of the earth’s crust has petition for the conat risk. expanded to the most destrol new markets has olate places of the earth. the potential to cause Now the poles are being conflict between old powers. We may excavated. Climate warming has made include ethnic problems and disagree- it easier to excavate the rich reserves in ments, some more than a hundred the depth of ocean. years old. Furthermore, the weaponizaRussia, the US, Canada, Denmark, tion of space brings dangers that may Sweden, Germany and Norway are mark the next ten years. in opposition over the subject of the

t is estimated that one-fourth of world’s total crude oil and natural gas reserves are located in the Lomonosov region. This region, a mountain chain under the sea, stretches from Greenland to East Siberia and passes under the north pole. The South Pole is home to coal and iron ore, rather than oil and natural gas. The presence of other ores is surmised, but this has not been proven. Nickel, copper, platinum, gold and silver may be found by drilling. But, exploration is too expensive because the sea is nearly four thousand meters deep. High costs do not deter Russia, Canada, the US, Norway and Denmark, the North Pole’s neighbors. These nations have the right to explore, hunt and mine within the two hundred mile wide range of their territorial waters. Some nations hope to exercise this right beyond their territorial waters. North Pole. These states have initiated military preparations along with the work of exploration and excavation being done underneath the thinning ice. Canada first responded to Russian initiatives in 2007 by mapping the sea bed. Furthermore, to protect its future interests in the polar region Canada continues to work on its deep water EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Conflict Zones

port and Arctic military training center. show of force, and light the fuse of a Russia, on the other hand, is preparing new Falklands war. a military unit to be deployed to the II. Balkans: The Smell of Blood North Pole. Thus, the Russian flag on the sea bed beneath the North Pole has It has been 14 years since the signturned the balance in the Arctic upside ing of the Dayton Agreement ended down. This situation is forcing the US the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which to become party to the UN agreement had claimed 250 thousand lives. Folconcerning the poles. lowing this painful expeThe decision to prorience, the silence of the Competition for tect the South Pole from war-torn state caused the control new plundering increases the world’s interest to demarkets has the appetite of technologicline. Bosnia-Herzegovpotential to cause cally advanced states. ina has been experiencThe United Kingdom ing a deepening political conflict between seems to be pursuing depression since 1995. old powers. sovereignty over the The Dayton AgreeSouth Pole. This causes ment divided the counArgentina to raise its voice over claims try into the Bosnia and Herzegovina to Antarctica. The situation of Chile, Federation and the Serbian Republic, Australia and New Zealand is no dif- was great for ending the war, but was ferent from that of Argentina and the a failure in state-building, as will soon United Kingdom. Although these na- be shown. tions have obeyed international law This is because the Dayton Agreeuntil now, and have not chosen military ment broke up the nation, rather than challenge as a first option, preparations unifying it. Bosnian’s Serbs practically show that the South Pole is emerging transformed the separate entity (autonas a possible conflict zone. The next ten omous region) provided for by the Dayyears will pressed the US to ratify the ton Agreement into a state structure, UN agreement concerning the poles. and openly work towards the dismemThe 1959 Antarctica Agreement that berment of Bosnia-Herzegovina, rather freezes all territorial claims and the than its unification. In addition, when 1991 Protocol will be opened for de- the Croats, the quietest of the nation’s bate. Struggle in the diplomatic realm three constituent groups, began to decould lead, over time, to a military mand their own “entity” in the Bosnia 38

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and Herzegovina Federation, the possibility of disintegration or war began to be debated again. Bosnian Serb politicians want an independence referendum for their region. Thus, they are blocking every decision that is necessary for the future of the state, rendering the system unworkable. Their immediate goal is the dismemberment of Bosnia-Herzegovina, and then unification with Serbia, establishing the Great Serbia. This is why they want to get rid of the office of High Commissioner, the nation’s highest authority and the peace process observer. Since votes in Bosnia are cast according to ethnicity, this entity’s veto is an ethnic veto. The Serbs have vetoed 262 law and decisions since 1995. The second significant problem concerns ownership of the nation’s properties. The Serbs want entities to have ownership of national property, with only a few buildings belonging to the federal state. Certainly, they want oil, mines, trees, and so forth to be wealth in common. The international community has been pressing the parties to restructure their nation, especially its decisionmaking processes. The Butmir process, initiated by the EU and the US to reconcile the parties, has been unsuccessful. Bosnian Muslims have no trust in

Conflict Zones the EU, since the EU’s decision to offer gion. The key countries in the region Schengen visas to the citizens of Ser- appear to be Poland and Ukraine. The bia, Montenegro and Macedonia was main reason behind their sharpenperceived as a double standard by the ing competition since 2004 is security Balkans’ Muslim states, Bosnia-Herze- strategy. Russia feels threatened and govina, Albania and Kosovo. defenseless due to NATO expansion. After the independence of Kosovo, Defending Russia’s western borders, Serbs raised their voices to demand an with their vast steppes, seems impossiindependence referendum. The Day- bly difficult to Moscow in the current ton Agreement will expire soon, and es- situation. For the defense of Moscow, tablishing new mechanisms for resolu- the Russian line of defense should start tion seems impossible. As the nation’s on Poland’s border. After Ukraine’s political crisis deepens January 2010 elections, Russia will be increasthe West will take new The Russian flag ingly involved with the steps to acquire full conon the sea bed Serbian side. The UN trol of Ukraine. Russia beneath the North peacekeeping force’s has various responses to Pole has turned mandate is also expiring, such a move. If pro-Rusand the deployment of a sians lose the elections, the balance in trustworthy and powerMoscow may use energy the Arctic upside ful peacekeeping misto increase its economic down. sion may be blocked. In pressure on Kiev. If this this case, Serbians could does not yield results, initiate armed clashes to force Bosnia’s Russia may try to ignite internal strife government to allow their separation. using its supporters in Ukraine. The The United States, which is focused on biggest challenge of the next ten years Afghanistan, Iraq and the economic will be experienced in Ukraine. crisis, would not be able to provide as Russia’s second move will be to unimuch support as it did in the past. The fy with Belarus. The two nations are alEuropean Army, on the other hand, has neither the strength nor the organization to prevent such conflict. Furthermore, any step the EU might take could be blocked by Greece in the name of “Orthodox Brotherhood.” Turkey, the brother of the Muslims in Balkans, will want to intervene by using its power in NATO. At any rate, Turkey has already intensified its diplomatic efforts on the issue. In the last three months of 2009, meetings and visits were held continuously at the level of Presidents, Prime Ministers and Ministers of Foreign Affairs. If Turkish diplomatic efforts yield no results, and armed clashes are again initiated, Ankara could justify action on behalf of the Muslims living in Western Thrace, in Greece. In this case, conflicts will create a wave that spans to the Black Sea.

ready very close to each other and they could do this. If unification is not realized, joint defense agreements between Russia and Belarus will be signed. With such an agreement, the Russian military will be right on Poland’s border. In this scenario, the abandoned idea of deploying missiles in Eastern Europe may be implemented. Russia desires to transform Europe’s energy dependency, the result of North Stream, into a strategic partnership in security area. The government in Berlin seems very eager for this. Russia and Germany will establish a medium term strategic security bloc. The security of the North Stream pipeline will lay the foundations for this. However, in a broader sense, the pact, based on dividing up the Baltic region between them, will affect the next ten years. The economic crisis led to the Baltic states’ disappointment with the Atlantic bloc. Moscow will try to regain dominance over its former satellites using economic aid. After some time, the Baltic states’ governments may be composed of pro-Russians. This will be followed by Baltic joint economy

III. The Baltic Region: Historical Trouble For the Atlantic bloc, the security of Europe begins with the Baltic reEurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Conflict Zones and security region under Russian patronage. This situation, which will be opposed by Europe, increases the possibility of conflict on the line that runs through Baltic region to Middle and Eastern Europe.

IV. The Black Sea and the Caucasus: Turbulence The Caucasus cannot be separated from the Black Sea, in other words, from the Turkish Straits. The distance from Ukraine’s easternmost border

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to Kazakhstan’s westernmost border runs from its hinterlands to the Caucais 400 miles. The Caucasus lies like a sus, it will lose its control over its Casdagger pointed toward the Black Sea pian and Central Asia resources. between Ukraine and Central Asia The northern Caucasus is controlled Turkic Republics. Hydrocarbons from by Russia and populated by various the Caspian region and Central Asia ethnic groups, the majority of which are collected at Russia’s Black Sea port are Muslim. This is Russia’s soft underin Novorossiysk. The only passage for belly. Despite the reduced strength of the huge tankers that set Chechen separatists, sail in the Black Sea is the they continue their atThe decision Turkish Straits. If Mostacks. It is possible that to protect the cow fails to maintain full the attacks will intensiSouth Pole from control over the strait that fy during the run up to the 2014 Sochi Winter plundering Olympics. Previously increases the supported by Islamic appetite of republics or Middle technologically Eastern Wahhabis, advanced states. Orthodox Georgia is a new ally for the Chechens. Moscow’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and its prior military protection of these nations led to the outbreak of war in August 2008. Furthermore, Russia is preparing to include Abkhazia in the 2014 Olympics. This situation will lead pro-American Georgia to support separatists in the Caucasus. Although Saakashvili’s power is declining, Moscow is unable to find an alternative leader to bring Georgia closer to Russia. Turkey, which is very much in harmony with Russia concerning the Black Sea and the transportation of energy resources to the West, does whatever it can to prevent the US’s losing Georgia, because, if Georgia aligns with Russia, the US will support Armenia. Turkey knows what this means. Turkey supports Georgia politically, economically and militarily at the risk of getting on Russia’s nerves. A flight that departs form Istanbul to Batumi, on the Turkish-Georgia border, qualifies as domestic route, since landing in Batumi and taking the motor way is the quickest way to reach the Turkish cities of northeast Anatolia. Despite its support, Ankara is bothered by the steps taken by Tbilisi in the last year. The forceful blockade and detention of Turkish ships by Georgian naval forces in the Black Sea increased the level of concern. Turkey, which has developed tact-

Conflict Zones

ful relations with Georgia, took an important step toward resolving the one hundred year old Armenian problem by signing a protocol opening its closed borders. The normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia implies that Russia will be distanced a bit more from the southern Caucasus. No doubt, Russia is aware of this. If this normalization is achieved, Russia will give the green light to Azerbaijan to use military force to take its occupied territories back from Armenia. Without the support of the Russian army, it would be impossible for Armenia to resist the more powerful and modernized Azerbaijani army. Moscow will permit a controlled armed conflict and try to sponsor an armistice with the aim of taking full control during the peace talks. NATOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s only option for supporting Armenia is Turkey. However, Ankara will not allow NATO to support Armenia due to the ancestral past it shares with

Azerbaijan and for economic reasons separatists, through harsh measures; (the BTC pipeline). At the end of this and a mass exile similar to that of 1864, process, it will not be surprising to find might be unavoidable. Moscow must first consolidate its Turkey at the negotiating table. While Moscow is trying to show power in the Black Sea to gain full its strength in the southern Caucasus, control of the Caucasus. Here, one of it could encounter real internal strife its most serious obstacles is the status in the north because, apside from the of Crimea. During the next ten years, Chechens, territorial disputes have Russia will surely make a move to anbeen blooming in other Muslim re- nex this strategic peninsula, with its majority of ethnic Ruspublics. The Kabardin sians. Two advantages and the Balkars have Strife that will Russia might enable such mobilized local forces begin during a a move: and are initiating the transition period in 1. Crimeaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s large Rusconflict with small scale Egypt could easily sian population armed clashes. Adygea 2. The increasing and Karachay-Cherkesreach Palestine by radicalization of Muslim sia will become involved way of Gaza. Tatars in Crimea with these groups. The possibility of If territorial dispute armed between Ukraine and spreads, we will see bl bloody d conflict fli d conflict f involving Inigushetia, Dagestan and Russia will ignite after a conflict in BalChechnya, too. Russia will try to stop kans, because a new internal war at the such a conflict, in addition to Chechen gates of Europe will cause the West to EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Conflict Zones

focus on the region, and Russia is likely to use this opportunity.

V. The Middle East: The World’s Problem Today, no geopolitical problem has a structure as rooted and complex as the Middle East problem. The problem, ongoing since the twentieth century, has spread to a wider area with the war between the US and the Jihadists. The Islamic world no longer speaks of the problem with Al Fatah, but about the Iranian controlled HAMAS and Hezbollah. Iran, in seeking to maintain security beyond its borders, has taken the path of enforcing its power throughout the Middle East using Shiite influence. This situation will intensify and leave its mark on the next ten years. In December 2009, the Iranian military occupied the Fakkah oil fields, on the disputed Iraq-Iran border, but this cannot be explained by appetite for oil alone. 42

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According to Tehran, the defense of the his son. Strife that will begin during a motherland begins at the Basra Gulf in transition period in Egypt could easily Iraq and extends in the Mediterranean reach Palestine by way of Gaza. Moreto Lebanon. The Iranian influence will over, weak governments in both Israel fuel new conflicts pitting Lebanon and and Palestine offer no hopes for peace Syria against Israel. This situation will in the short term. However, this will be deepen the already used by the US as an opdivided structure of portunity. Thus the US Economics are the Arab world. Furwill increase its pressure increasingly thermore, the US war on these two weak govdetermining with the Jihadists will ernments and try to insert Iranian policy, strengthen radicals HAMAS somewhere in who oppose the dicthe process. We should both domestic and tators of the Middle not forget that in the foreign. East. Old and weakly 1970s Washington saw Al Fatah as a terrorist orgasupported dictators will face people’s movements. These nization and refused to negotiate with movements will mix together radicals them. From a military perspective, one and liberals, just as it did during the Iranian Islamic revolution. Egypt’s situa- way to prevent conflict could be the detion is the most critical. While the Mus- ployment of an American unit along the lim Brotherhood is growing in strength, Jordan River. There is hope that such old Mubarak is looking for an oppor- an option will provide some amount of tunity to bequeath the nation’s rule to security, thus making it easier for Israel

Conflict Zones to withdraw and to initiate the disarmament of Palestine. If we assume that US forces will cause negative reactions, another option would be to deploy an international force, with a majority of Muslim states. However, the Iranian controlled Hezbollah would be left out of the equation, hence there would be no chance of success. For this very reason, the US will focus primarily on Iran, rather than the Israel-Palestine problem. This focus will not aim a final agreement with the mullahs, since the American side is aware that a grand agreement, which would comprehensively resolve its problems with Iran, is not a realistic goal. Economics are increasingly determining Iranian policy, both domestic and foreign. Washington would like to use the possibility of trade with Iran as a powerful tool. Iran will receive attractive offers during Iraq and Afghanistan’s restructuring process. Political obstacles to the inclusion of Iran as a supplier to the NABUCCO energy line, which will reach Europe by way of Turkey, may be softened. Meanwhile, the liberal opposition will gain hope and begin waving their fists more aggressively, so Iran will face increasing internal strife and be shaped by social pressure.

VI. Africa: A Dark Future SubSaharan Africa has begun its most critical period since its colonial independence. This period points towards the intensification of conflict between former colonizers and their new partners. Every African nation is composed of various peoples that have deep historical disputes. Muslims in Nigeria, with its population of 128 million, are being increasingly radicalized, while in the Ivory Coast, the division of natural resources is fueling tension between poor Muslims in the north and rich Christians in the south. The Catholic Church, left behind by former colonizers, is losing influence, while American Evangelicals are gaining power. SubSaharan Africa is swarming with missionaries. Armed attacks on Togo’s national football team at the Africa Cup of Na-

Reported attacks

tions in Angola showed the danger be- time to time by supporting groups that fore the 2010 World Cup. We should are close to them. The political crisis not forget that similar threats will in- in Ivory Coast after the death of Felix crease during the World Cup. We may Boigny seems to be resolved by the esexperience a new Munich. The traces tablishment of a moderate government of attack in Angola should be sought in 2005. However, efforts to increase the poor northern Musat the roots of Africa’s lims’ share of the natural broad potential for ethThere is no resources remains a ponic and religious condoubt that the flict. Certainly, chronic tential cause of conflict. most important poverty (the majority In Sudan, where for reason for Africa’s of the world’s 9 million twenty-one years the hungry are located in increasing problems most bloody conflicts Africa), epidemics (like over natural resources is its geopolitical AIDS), huge external have been experienced, roots. faces two critical years. debt and, most imporThe non-Muslim minortant of all, who will control Africa’s underground riches should ity in the southern regions reject the central government’s sovereignty. The be added to this lethal cocktail. There is no doubt that the most im- division of oil, the cause of the conportant reason for Africa’s increasing flict, was resolved by a 2004 agreement. problems is its geopolitical roots. Na- China’s construction of the Bentiutions like Yemen, the Ivory Coast and Khartum-Port Sudan pipeline on the Nigeria have rich natural resources Red Sea played a determining role in that are in the grip of industrialized na- the agreement. In return for significant tions. Even though it is not admitted, oil revenues, southerners discarded the major powers are fueling conflicts from idea of independence and the central EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Conflict Zones government accepted their autonomy. Recently, the Southerners have been agitated by China’s competitors. Simultaneously, the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for the arrest of Sudan’s President al-Bashir because of Darfur. It seems that the 2010 presidential election and planned referendum for the independence of the South in 2011 have started to heat up the furnace by the Red Sea. While al-Bashir is trying to get closer to Sadik al-Mahdi for the 2010 presidential election, al-Mahdi seem to be having a honeymoon with the South. Al-Mahdi’s calculates that supporting the referendum on southern independence in 2011 will win him the support of South Sudan’s President Salma Kiir in the presidential elections. We understand that Washington is behind this plan since al-Mahdi was the first person to be visited by the US’s special envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, who immediately followed up this visit by heading south to meet Kiir. Al-Mahdi’s other partner in this dance is the most powerful resistance leader in Darfur, Ibrahim Halil. Al-Mahdi’s efforts to be the mediator between central government and Darfur show that Sudan is slipping into a dangerous adventure. Al-Mahdi, with foreign support and votes from the separatist regions, will put al-Bashir in a difficult situation in 2010. If al-Bashir wins, the 2011 referendum process will see bloody clashes. If al-Mahdi wins and the referendum grants independence, the oil fields on the borders of the southern and central governments will become an arena for international conflict because, these fields have been ceded to Chinese corporations with long-term agreements. Although, AFRICOM Commander General William Ward asserts that they do not have ‘secret agents,’ he points out that the new structure has three main goals. One of the goals is either break or limit China’s increasing influence through ‘soft power.’ To this end, AFRICOM wants to use public diplomacy, to develop socially responsible projects, to build health centers and to dig water 44

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wells. Taliban to fight the Soviets are gainAnother goal is to maintain the ing power. The likely worsening of the security of oil that is produced on the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan is continent. It is estimated that US crude already being observed. These developoil needs will increase ments signal a new inter25% by 2015. vention of the Pakistani Al-Mahdi, with The last goal is to Army. It is not surprising foreign support fight terrorism. AFRIto see radical colonels and votes from the COM, which has estabcoming to power in the Isseparatist regions, lished relations with lamic world. However, no fifty-three African nawill put al-Bashir in past experiences of this tions, wants to increase entailed a nuclear risk. a difficult situation the fighting capacity of Operations conducted in 2010. unstable states against by Pakistan’s government terrorism by providing in its border regions will military training. After all, this is the yield no results. These operations serve main concern. the radicals on both sides. It is known that members of the Pakistani miliVII. Afghanistan and Pakistan: tary and intelligence service (ISI) take Complex Conflict part in training at the Taliban’s border Today no two neighboring countries camps. Drawing the Pakistani military are as much prisoners of fate as Af- into internal strife in FATA, Swat and ghanistan and Pakistan. The situation Waziristan and thereby winning miliin Afghanistan spread to the port of tary control of Pakistan seems to be the Karachi in the last two years. By now main foundation of American strategy. Pakistan feels the Afghanistan problem This could have severe repercussions. in its veins. The situation will become The biggest risk is a radical military even more grave as it continues. With coup and the radicals’ gaining control the ousting of Musharraf and the as- of the nuclear weapons. The question sassination of Bhutto Pakistan’s new of the future will be whether Pentagon administration seems to have lost all will want to control Pakistan or want to control. Division with in the army is avoid permitting its military to obtain now obvious to outsiders. While im- control of nuclear weapons. It seems partial, British educated generals lose unavoidable that, as a first step, the US power, radical colonels who trained the will work to reinitiate IMET. Certainly,

Conflict Zones

the US would like to coordinate its own means that the conflict will spread. coup with a general like Pervez Kayani. VIII. Southeast Asia: The In such a case, China and India would be involved because, the Pentagon is Dialectic of Patience aware that Afghanistan and Pakistan On the shores of Asia, the ASEAN are key bridges between Iran and Chi- countries are determined to establish na and Iran has the necessary energy open/flexible relations with China, Jaresources for China and India. Bal- pan, India and Australia. The great kanizing Afghanistan economic depression and Pakistan would (Asian crisis) caused a With the ousting cut China’s connecrapprochement of the of Musharraf and tion by way of the the region’s countries for the assassination of the sake of stability. The land route that passes Bhutto Pakistan’s from the province of Chinese model appears Xinjiang to Pakistan new administration to be gaining influence in and the Arabian Sea. Southeast Asia. However, seems to have lost The China Metallurgithis model is a threat to all control. cal Group bought the multicultural and multimanagement rights of religious structures. Incopper mines in Afghanistan for 3 bil- donesia has the largest Muslim populalion dollars in October 2009, and has tion in the world. Islamic Aceh wants shown that it can operate in a coun- independence from Indonesia. These, try regardless of its internal problems. along with Malaysia, Myanmar and Furthermore, internal strife in Pakistan East Timor, will be frontline zones for could stimulate India in Kashmir. This potential tensions.

Indonesia, with its population of over a quarter billion and its unique racial and religious structure, will be at the center of conflicts during the next ten years. Organizations that seem moderate, like Hizb ut Tahrir, but which have the potential, are using Indonesia as a comfortablebase. Hizb ut Tahrir was able to bring one million organization members from all over the world to conferences that were held in Indonesia following 9/11. The organization’s jihad ideology reaches Malaysia, Pakistan, Kashmir, Central Asia and the Caucasus, and is laying the foundations for supplying militias to conflicts in different parts of the world. In Aceh, the Moro Islamic Independence Front, which wants independence from Indonesia and to establish an Islamic state, intends to intensify its armed struggle in Jakarta. The Jihadist network is working dialectically, increasing its effectiveness in Indonesia while strengthEurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

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ening its ties to the Asian mainland. A country where twenty-six different races live in as many regions has a hostile attitude even towards sects like Ahmediye. In the near future, we should not be surprised to see more internal movements like the stoning of the Playboy offices in 2006. In order to protect its power, even the Indonesian military is attempting to make a show of force in the regions densely populated with Islamic radicals and in East Timor. East Timor’s hydrocarbon reserves are an indispensable attraction to a military that has been enriched by them. The Chinese minority, twenty-five percent of Malaysia’s population, controls 70% of the nation’s economy. This situation is as disturbing to the administration as it is to the poor majority. Malaysia’s Chinese, who have close relations and economic partnerships with China, are perceived as the missionaries of Beijing in Kuala Lumpur.

IX. China: Between Brutal Capitalism and Socialism The biggest difficulty of the twentyfirst century is preventing an ascendant China from shaking up the system and 46

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yet somehow including it in that sys- Fleet. However, there are ramifications tem. US fears notwithstanding, Chi- to the fact that the Iraq War is the first nese economic and military growth will war that the US has financed, not with continue. Moreover, capitalism’s big- its own resources, but with debt owed gest crisis is making a model of China. to another nation, namely, China. This The Pacific line running through Japan, situation forces both states to behave Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia and Sin- cautiously towards each other. Beijing’s increasing focus on new isgapore, now under of US control and part of its grand strategy, will soon be- sues will lead Chine to send states like come an arena for challenges between North Korea the message, “You can no China and the US. One of the factors longer depend on us.” This will go so that will determine the power struggle far as to force Pyongyang to comprois the control and stability of the Ma- mise in negotiations concerning North Korea’s nuclear weaplacca Straits. China’s ons. North Korea’s reaceconomic and military The spread of tion could be a policy of growth is directly relatconflict that will controlled tension, puted to the trade through start at the sea ting China in a difficult Malacca straits. While towards Asia position. instability in trade China’s military routes creates problems inlands will moves to safeguard its for China, it strengthens negative economic trade routes will bother the hand of the US. For affect on India and India as well as the US. this reason, the Chinese China. The tension regarding military will send units Gan Island that occurred to critical locations on its trade routes. Africa, the h Middle Middl East E iin llate 2009 will affect the security of and Southeast Asia are likely targets Asia’s shores for a long time. Gan Isfor China’s military. This means that land, which was used as a forward base the Chinese military will come head- by the British against the Soviets, was to-head with the US’s Fifth and Sixth shut down in 1976. India is planning

Conflict Zones to reopen the base on this island. The island will be used as a station for helicopters and aircraft that will monitor Chinese ships in the Indian Ocean. According to an agreement that was signed in August, India will deploy radar on the shores of the Maldives to track its threatening adversary. This step is certainly a response to China opening a huge port in Sri Lanka. While the waters of the Indian Ocean heat up, we should not forget that these two nations have clashed on their borders in the Himalayas. The spread of conflict that will start at the sea towards Asia inlands will negative economic affect on both nations. It is most likely that China will be up against Russia in Central Asia. Red adversaries of the past will encounter each other in competition for the natural resources of Central Asia’s Turkic republics. A ten thousand kilometer pipeline continues to transport Central Asia’s natural gas to China. Pipelines are also the first important export route that does not pass through Russia. However, there is a growing network of Islamic radicalism in the Central Asian republics that extends from the Taklamakan Desert and the Fergana Valley to China’s Xinjiang province. Chinese

Turks’ street demonstrations ended in bloodshed in 2009, and bear an important message for Beijing’s future. It seems that Xinjiang will be China’s most threatening domestic problem during the next 10 years. Poverty, discrimination and the region’s influential Islamic movements will instigate the unrest. Xinjiang is rapidly acquiring the potential to become China’s next Tiananmen Square.

nership with Russia on energy issues, Britain is criticizing the administration in Moscow with the excuse of undemocratic acts, and doing so, Britain uses the Cold War arguments. France, on the other hand, is preventing Turkey’s EU membership for religious reasons (Turkey’s population is almost entirely Muslim). The same positive discrimination (in the Balkans) applies to Islamic European states. The European Union has such contradictory attitudes that X. Europe: Fears That Are it is “othering” the very people with Reborn When They Die whom it needs to establish strategic coWith its transatlantic relations, its operation. Turkey, Europe’s gateway to aging population, its exclusion of for- Asia, has been accused of ‘crucifying’ eigners, and its newly developing part- Christians by the spiritual leader of the nerships with regions close and far, the Eastern Orthodox Church in Istanbul, old continent is stuck. When Europe Patriarch Bartholomeos. The same began to attract the world’s attention, Europe that proposes the reopening it become the world’s strategic focal of Halki Seminary in Heybeliada as a point by importing the riches of Asia. prerequisite for membership is banning Europe is aware that it needs to turn minarets of mosques in its territories. Furthermore, Muslims in Europe east to regain its old power, which was lost in the Second World War and have been perceived as potential terweakened by the Cold War. However, rorists since 2001. “Othering” is causing uprisings in countries new fears (like Islam) like France, with its large are added to its old Furthermore, Muslim population. Agfears (the legacies of Muslims in Europe ing Europe’s continuous the Cold War). While have been perceived quarreling with its growGermany is actively as potential ing Muslim population establishing a partterrorists since and its suspicious approach to the East will 2001. deeply affect Europe’s domestic tranquility. Moreover, it is expected that the persisting effects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008 will draw Europe into another depression. The 2008 crisis occurred due to subprime mortgage lending. Everyone was full of hope for 2010. However, the debt crisis that occurred first near the end of 2009 in Dubai, and then in Greece, put a new horror movie scenario on the agenda. The fiscal deficit, which increased because of trillions of dollars that were spent to shore up markets during the crisis, is about to trigger national debt crises. The heaviest load is upon European nations such as Britain, Ireland, Portugal, Germany and Spain. Moreover, this could lead to social explosions in 2010. EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

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Turkish Chemicals Industry Report T

he Turkish chemical industry has been active for several decades, providing many basic and intermediate inputs to various industries. The industry employs more than 80,000 people in around 4,000 companies with a production value around 15 billion Euro in 2006 (latest available). The industry comprises 11 publicly quoted companies, with a total market capitalisation of around $2 billion (December 2009), the largest company being Petkim Petrokimya Holding A.Ş. (“Petkim”) with a market capitalisation of $ 926 million (December 2009).

Petrochemicals The main petrochemicals company is a former public company, Petkim, privatised in 2007. 51% of Petkim’s equity was acquired by Socar-Turcas Energy for a consideration of $ 2,040 million. 10% of the company is still owned

by the Privatisation Administration and the remaining 39% is free float on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Petkim’s Alia¤a petrochemicals complex in ‹zmir has an annual capacity of 3.2 million tons. Petkim’s product range includes LPDE, HPDE, PVC, and PP products, masterbatches, olefins, fiber and aromatics. These products are important inputs for the construction, electricity, electronic, packaging, textile and also medical, dying, detergent and cosmetic sectors.In addition, Tüpraş, Turkey’s largest petroleum company with 28.1 million ton crude processing capacity, owns a petrochemical production facility with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons.

Textiles The Turkish textile industry is a major production and

TURKEY, Koceli: Symbol of chemical industrialization.

export centre in global terms, thanks to its resource availability, ranking seventh in global cotton production with a capacity of 3.1 million of 480 lb. bales in 2007/08. It has proximity to Europe and other important markets, and a highly qualified workforce. Textile exports have increased considerably during the last decade from $ 3.4 billion in 2000 to $ 9.3 billion in 2008 (CAGR of 13.2%) boosting its supply chain including the chemical producers in parallel.

Fertilizers

The Turkish fertilizer industry has an established production capacity around 5.6 milThe Turkish lion tons in 11 factories chemical industry around the country. Gübre Fabrikaları, Bagfaş, Gemlik has been active Gübre, Ege Gübre, Igsaş, for several and Toros Gübre are major decades, providing fertilizer producers. Domany basic and mestic production covers intermediate the majority of domestic inputs to various demand but there are also imports. industries. Trends in agriculture are important for the industry as fertilizer is a major agricultural input. The national agricultural income is increasing but at a slower rate than GDP, decreasing the ratio of agricultural income to GDP from the most recent peak of 14.3% in 1997 to 8.4% in 2009 (three quarters).

Pharmaceuticals The pharmaceuticals industry is one of the most major subsectors within the 48

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chemical industry providing approximately 10% of the industry’s production. Further information regarding the pharmaceutical sector is provided in the “Turkish Health Industry Report” in this series.Home & Personal CareThe Turkish home care market size in 2008 was around $ 1.2 billion. P&G, Unilever, L’Oreal, Colgate and other major multinationals have been in the Turkish market for many years. Detergent and exports have reached TL 598 million in 2009 (11 months) representing 0.7% of all exports, up from 0.5% in 2007 and 2008. 2008 market size for personal care products was around $ 0.9 billion. Hair care products have the largest share making up one third of the market, followed by personal wash, toothpaste and deodorants.

Paints & Coatings The Paints & Coatings sector has developed significantly matching the growth in Turkey’s construction, automotive and marine industries. An-

nual production capacity has reached 800,000 tons and the capacity utilization ratio is around 65%.

at Wyoming in the U.S.. The factory started operating in March 2009 with an expected annual production capacity of 1 million tons. A new substantial trona Soda, Chrome, Boron reserve has recently been found near Turkey has specific competitive ad- Ankara-Kazan. The aggregate natural vantages being globally one of the main reserves at Beypazarı and Kazan are estimated at around 836 producers of soda ash, million tons. chrome and boron. The Turkish textile Around 72% of the Soda Sanayii A.Ş., a industry is a major world’s boron reserves are private company under production and in Turkey. Boron products the fiiflecam Group, is are inputs for agriculture, the main producer of export centre in soda and chrome. The global terms, thanks detergent and soaps, ceramics, insulation fibrecompany has annual to its resource glass, timber preservation, production capacity of availability flame retardants, nuclear over 1.5 million tons of power stations, cosmetics soda (including the capacity of its subsidiaries), 70 thousand and medicine, metallurgy, and many tons of sodium bichromate, and around other industries. Pure boron exports in 2008 totalled $518 million. 250 thousand tons of chrome20. Another important player is Eti International Trade Soda A.Ş., owned by Ciner group, which utilizes an extremely rich trona After a stage of rapid growth (2006(natural soda ash) reserve found near 2008 CAGR of 24.9%) reaching USD Ankara, at Beypazarı. It is globally the 6.1 billion in 2008, Turkey’s chemical second largest reserve after a reserve exports decreased by 33% in SeptemEurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

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ber 2009 compared to September 2008 mainly due to the global economic downturn. Based on recent information, a 0.7% increase was realised in October 2009 compared to the previous month, indicating a slowdown of the effects of the downturn.Exports of chemicals constitute around 4.5% of all Turkish exports, ranking the industry 4th by total value of exports after automotive, steel, and textiles. The Russian Federation, Italy, Germany, Romania, and the Ukraine are the largest export customers for Turkish chemical industry exports (26.6% of the total).Imports of chemicals, which are broadly 4 times the exports, increased with a CAGR of 17.8% between 2006 and 2008. The imports in 2008 totalled $ 25.6 billion. Turkey imports mainly from Germany, France, the U.S., Italy, Belgium, the U.K. and China.

REACH REACH is the acronym for Registration, Evaluation and Authorisation of Chemicals. The REACH proposal 50

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• To introduce responsibility for requires industry to register all existing and future new substances with a new downstream users to provide informaEuropean Chemicals Agency. REACH tion on uses and associated risk manaims to improve the protection of hu- agement measures relating to substancman health and the environment while es; • To maintain the existing restriction enhancing the competitiveness of the system and to introduce an EU chemical indusauthorisation procedure for try and avoiding the Turkey has specific the most hazardous subfragmentation of the competitive internal market.In stances as a new instrument; • To ensure greater this context, as deadvantages being transparency and openness tailed in CEFIC’s globally one of the for the public by providing website, the main obmain producers of easier access to relevant injectives of REACH soda ash, chrome formation on chemicals; are: and boron. • To establish a Euro• To establish a pean Chemicals Agency coherent registration the administration of system designed to provide basic haz- to ffacilitate id b i h ili ard and risk information on new and REACH and ensure that the system is existing chemical substances manufac- applied in a harmonised way across the EU;The Turkish Undersecretariat for tured in or imported into the EU; • To reverse the burden of proof, Foreign Trade has encouraged its affilimoving it away from Member States’ ated body The General Secretariat of authorities to producing and importing İstanbul Mineral and Metal Exporters’ companies, who will be responsible for Association (IMMEA) to establish the demonstrating that substances can be first help desk and IMMEA has been functioning as an industrial help desk used safely;

Special Report as from September 2007. IMMEA conducts awareness activities and provides technical help and guidance for Turkish exporters.

SWOT Analysis STRENGTH - SStrong export potential - Significant growth outlook for many subsectors (i.e. pharmaceuticals, home & personal care, coatings, etc.) - Awareness and support concerning REACH - Young and knowledgeable workforce - Turkey’s geostrategic importance - Availability of some rare raw materials (soda ash, boron, chrome)

WEAKNESSES - Relatively small scale by international standards - Insufficient hazardous waste processing facilities - Unregistered trading within the industry

OPPORTUNITIES - R&D investment and training of the workforce may increase efficiency - Likely expansion of local refining capacity - Turkey’s likely EU partnership - Increasing investment in private sector - Better trading climate with neighboring countries

THREATS - Fluctuating input prices - Extended timetable for Turkey’s EU partnership The Turkish Grand National Assembly has approved the Ninth Development Plan (2007-2013) on 28 June 2006 with Law No: 877. This development plan is fed by a list of Committees, including the Committee for the Chemical Industry. In their sub-division report, the Chemical Industry Committee has highlighted the following steps for the industry’s future development: • Establishing an economically stable environment for continuous growth;

• Increasing the competitiveness of the industry; • Improving the human resource quality; • Reducing the level of dissimilarities among different regions of the country so that natural resources could be processed within their own regions; • Extend the ongoing improvements in governance. The following steps were highlighted as the means of achieving the abovementioned goals: • Investing in research and development; • Investing in human resource development; • Improving the amount of local inputs and reducing the dependence on

imports; • Improving the cooperation between the industry players and the governing body in conjunction with the ongoing changes as part of Turkey’s commitment to join the EU; • Improving supervision and eliminating the unregistered trading within the industry; • Investing in and improving the level of occupational health and safety; • Emphasizing the importance of the chemicals within the national industry; • Improving the attractiveness of the industry to foreign investors. * For more info visit www.eurasiacritic.com EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Central Asia

Central Asia, Ten Years into the Future By Ali Kulebi ART - Foreign Policy Director of Eurasian TV

ince 2002, geopolitical struggle in Central Asia has become a multifaceted affair. Alongside the formerly hegemonic Russia, China has become a regional economic force, and the United States is trying to balance the game with its military supremacy. The struggle for influence that determines Asia today will become more concrete over the next 10 years.

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and religious influence, security and economic opportunities. Currently, the struggle in this region, which can be seen as the heart of the world, focuses on the factors that connect the region to the outside world: roads, pipelines and the management of natural resources, as well as political issues. Whoever can control these factors will be the region’s geopolitical and economic conqueror. Chinese military For political and doctrine is economic reasons, improving, and the Russian Federaindicates a serious tion still has imperial need for technology designs on its former territories, and it is transfer. seriously concerned about the United States’ goals in the region since the occupation of Afghanistan made that nation the second force in the region. For this reason, Russia established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with China and the four nations of Turkestan in 1996. In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the organization. This organization has made successful moves in recent years, proving its ability to maintain security in Central Asia and to resolve border disputes, and increasing its political significance during the process. Major Asian powers such as India, Pakistan and Iran felt a need to join the organization as observers, and this significant fact is proof of the SCO’s increasing power.

Apart from these two nations, the presence of second tier powers pursuing their own strategic interests in the region both demonstrates the region’s strategic significance and suggests that the future will see Central Asia become the arena for even larger struggles, since interests to be achieved in dynamic multiple interactions include geopolitical power, national

Central Asia

However, the organization, which came on the international scene with the slogan of “Eurasia for Eurasians,” has as a primary deficiency for becoming a balancing mechanism against the US and NATO superpowers, and it has have always been known: its lack of a joint military force.

Military Developments and the Region’s Future Although the militaries of the nations of Turkestan continue to use Russian hardware, training and structure, these nations have not become Russian political and military satellites. Thus, the emergence of the United States as a balancing force and a political alternative in the region has helped these states to avoid full dependence on Russia. Nevertheless, we may still assert that, to some extent, Russian military influence persists. Thus, for a variety of reasons, the bulkiness, underdevelop-

ment and technological inadequacy of is the most important reason for Chithese states’ militaries is clear. Their na’s dependency on Russia. Chinese obvious military dependency forces the military doctrine is improving, and innations of Turkestan to modernize their dicates a serious need for technology militaries as their financial situation transfer. This reason makes it clear that permits and to toe the Russian political the military and political dimensions line. of the relationship between China and While the nations of Turkestan are Russia will last for a long time. dependent on foreign Since the nations connections and their milof Turkestan have no Since the nations itaries need material aid, other options, they are of Turkestan have the rising world power, preparing to establish no other options, China, is also militarily new and closer military they are preparing dependent on Russia, in relations with Russia. The rapid modernization In the same fashion, to establish new of China’s military is due China needs Russia and closer military to the Russian Federadue to its lack of sorelations with tion, which compensates phisticated technoloRussia. for China’s technological gies. In other words, due to the advanced weaknesses, especially in aerospace and electronic military sys- military technological legacy of the Soviet Union, Russia will be more influtems. In particular, the EU and US arms ential in Turkestan and China will be embargo, imposed on China since 1989 its dependent. This is the reality behind EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Central Asia

the Collective Security Treaty Organization. According to this new plan, all members of the CSTO, except TurkThe Emergence of a New menistan, will join the new Rapid ReacMilitary Alliance in Central Asia tion Force. Plans call for the new force to proAlthough China is dependent on tect member states from possible forRussia for military technology, we eign threats, to conduct operations should not forget that China also feels against terrorism and to combat orgaa need to develop its political and econized crime and drug trafnomic relations with ficking. the US. China’s situIt is important Although the nations ation requires that it to point out that of Turkestan have various maintain balanced and Tajikistan, like reservations and difficulcalculated relations Kyrgyzstan, also ties regarding their particwith Russia. Conseipation in such a military wants to acquire quently, despite China force, Russia clearly has and Russia’s participamilitary and high hopes for it, since, tion in the SCO’s milifinancial aid from Russia’s President Medtary exercises with conboth Russia and vedev has indicated that siderable forces, due to the US the new force will be no China’s recent lack of weaker than NATO. With enthusiasm, this year’s this in mind, Russia announced that it exercise was extremely lifeless. allocated one airborne division and one China’s reluctance led Russia to iniattack brigade to the new force. Aftiate a new policy, which primarily conter this step, Kazakhstan is expected to cerns the US and secondarily, China. join the new force with a brigade, and Since Russia announced in FebruKyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will join with ary 2009 that it will establish a Rapid various battalions. The military capaReaction Force under the auspices of the strengthening of the SCO in recent years.

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bilities of the CSTO will increase over the next 10 years. Thus, its strength may reach twenty-thousand men. Uzbekistan remains uncommitted to the force, expressing its doubts about the CSTO’s effectiveness as an organization. However, this new force will be established anyway and it would compensate the SCO’s one of the main weaknesses.

Political Implications of the New Military Alliance Positive results from this new development have come quickly, and we expect more new developments in the future. For instance, Kyrgyzstan, home to both US and Russian military bases, made the significant step of asking the US to leave Manas Airbase, due to its improved military relations with Russia and the promise of 2 billion dollars in military aid from Russia. Furthermore, the new agreement included the Russian decision to modernize Kant Airbase, near Bishkek, raising US concerns so much that in order to stay in Kyrgyzstan the US offered new financial and military aid. In return, Kyrgyzstan allowed US to continue to

Central Asia use Manas Airbase and increased the both Russia and the US, and is seeking base’s annual rent to 60 million dollars, new ways to accommodate the new dewith the additional promise of 117 mil- velopments. Tajikistan is home to Ruslion dollars in military aid. sia’s most important foreign military While these events transpired, Rus- base, where the 201st Mechanized Divisia modernized and strengthened the sion, along with one independent tank Kant Airbase, in particular, by increas- battalion, air defense units and a small ing the numbers of Sukhoi SU-25 and fighter plane group, was stationed. AlSu-27 fighter planes. Due to the new though it is said that Tajikistan rents the security agreement spearheaded by base to Russia, there is no conclusive evRussia, Kyrgyzstan’s essentially weak idence of this. The Imamali Rahmanov military began to be modernized, and regime utilizes harsh military measures its most important unit, in the country, and, like the Third Special Forces Karimov, is a suscepIn the short Battalion, received new tible target for Islamist term, global equipment and trainorganizations, since the policies of energy ing. In Turkestan a new worsening economy is diversification military chess match bestrengthening the raditween US and Russia has cals. Requests for public increase the value begun, as we have noted, donations to a hydroof every kind of and Kyrgyzstan was not electric plant construcraw material. its only beneficiary. tion project show how While Uzbekistan, dire Dushanbe’s ecoTajikistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmeni- nomic situation is. stan restructured their foreign policy Turkmenistan is dependent on Rusand made political moves in accord sia for military hardware. Although with the new alliance, they also took Turkmenistan wants to buy military new steps in military arena. hardware from Russia, especially tanks During the four years since Uzbeki- and gunboats, due to its foreign policy’s stan decided to shut down the Ameri- neutrality principle, Turkmenistan has can owned Hanabad Base, we have seen cautious and limited relations with both it reach out to the West to some extent Russia and the US. The American presand soften its policies. Thus Uzbekistan ence in Turkmenistan is limited to a allowed NATO to use Nevai airport as a transit hub for equipment being sent to Afghanistan. We should underline that while this happened, Uzbekistan refused to join the CSTO’s Rapid Reaction Force. Simultaneously, Russia shut down the Cargo Aircraft Manufacturing Plant in Tashkent, where IL-76’s were built. This shows the chill in relations between Russia and Uzbekistan. However, we should not forget that Uzbekistan is still dependent on Russia, especially for the modernization of its fighter planes, T-72 tanks and BMP2 infantry fighting vehicles. All these foreign pressures on Uzbekistan open the door for the terrorist activities of Islamist organizations, causing difficulties for Karimov. It is important to point out that Tajikistan, like Kyrgyzstan, also wants to acquire military and financial aid from

small military station at the Ashgabat Airport. It refuels American aircraft that are carrying non-military cargo to Afghanistan. Although Kazakhstan is the richest Central Asian nation and closest to the West, since it does not share a physical border with Afghanistan, it has been militarily and strategically sidelined by Russia and the US. Despite its close relations with NATO and the US, and the military hardware it acquires from the West, Kazakhstan’s close political relations with Russia are evident in the military domain. Consequently, Kazakhstan’s decision to send one brigade to the CSTO’s Rapid Reaction Force is significant. Furthermore, we should not forget that Russia is still this nation’s primary arms supplier.

The Future of Natural Resources In the short term, global policies of energy diversification increase the value of every kind of raw material. We should not forget that China’s leaping industrialization has already increased demand for all sorts of materials. In the future, Central Asia, with its vast and unused natural resources, will play a crucial role in supplying the raw materi-

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Central Asia als the world needs. The energy hungry world’s demand for fossil fuels will shift to nuclear fuels in the distant future. Central Asia can supply both types of fuels in significant amounts for a long time. However, this would move the nuclear challenge that occurred during the twentieth Century from the Atlantic to the Pacific, since the mass of nuclear warheads in Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, India and China will have to be taken into account. On the other hand, 520 million barrels of oil reserves in total and an estimated 105 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves increase the significance of the Caspian region, which is important for both Russia and US. According to other estimates, oil reserves in Central Asia and the Caspian region could be as large as 150-200 billion barrels. The neighboring states of the Caspian: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan, have 4.5 billion tons of proven oil reserves and estimated reserves of 18 billion tons. These nations are expected to export 140 billion ton in 2010 and 215 billion ton in 2015. In 2015, Caspian region would reach the oil production rate of 4.7 million barrels and would export much of it. This is a significant increase when we consider export rates of Saudi Arabia (7.6 million), Iran (3.5 million) and US (1.9 million). Pipeline routes for transportation of the region’s rich natural resources to the global market and the construction

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of these pipelines have become a major states. area of struggle between oil companies In these lights, the transportation and major powers. The oil and natural of Caspian and Central Asia oil to the gas routes of the Caspian region will de- world does not suit Russia’s short term termine the geopolitics of twenty-first interests. What Russia plans to do is century. For this reason, the world’s to control oil reserves and supply the 25 largest oil companies are actors in international market when reserves in the region. They have either invested the Middle East and North Africa are already or are planning to invest more depleted. As long as Russia controls than 100 billion dollars in the region. the Caspian region, it plans to use its So, multinational companies’ interests energy resources to control the West, intersect in the region. The current since the West has poor relations with problem is how to transport oil and nat- the Middle East. ural gas to Western Europe, where the The former Russian President, majority of customers are located. To Vladimir Putin, once said, “We will this end, various pipeline projects have export our oil and gas, but while dobeen crafted with economic and politi- ing this, we will produce our electricity cal concerns in mind. The main future in nuclear power plants. To this end, players in the pipeline we will construct 26 new game have, to some nuclear power plants over In these lights, extent, been identithe next 10 years.” The the transportation fied. However, even if Russian Federation has of Caspian and the rules of the game 870,000 tons of proven Central Asia oil to and the conditions natural uranium reserves for resource sharing (including low qualthe world does not have been determined ity ore). Besides Australia suit Russia’s short by global capital, and and Canada, who have the term interests. leading investors, there world’s largest uranium are still unresolved isreserves, Kazakhstan and sues. In these days the region’s former Uzbekistan are important countries powerhouse, politically and geographi- with their proved uranium reserves. cally, the Russian Federation, wants Even today, we expect that new uranito gain a larger share of production um fields will be discovered in Kazakhand distribution by using its geopoliti- stan, cal advantage. However, Turkey, Iran which has 860,000 tons of proven and China are joining the competition, uranium reserves, and in Uzbekistan, thus EU countries also want to get their which has 150,000 tons. We also expect share either directly or through proxy low quality uranium to become com-

Central Asia

mercially viable, thus significantly increasing the strategic position of these two countries. The world’s attention is on Kazakhstan due to its oil, natural gas and strategically important uranium reserves. Uzbekistan’s known reserves, approximately 150,000 tons, may soon surpass Russia’s reserves, thus when we consider the 40 new nuclear plants that Putin ordered, apparently uranium becomes increasingly important from day to day. Russia, for the reasons noted, will be forced to acquire more uranium sources whatever the cost. Although Uzbekistan’s gold mines have great significance, uranium’s potential to surpass gold is the main reason behind the intensification of Russian efforts in Uzbekistan.

Political Developments The Russian Federation is no doubt the biggest profit winner among the foreign powers of Turkic Eurasia, from the Balkans to East Turkestan. While the Russians, who claim to focus on regional stability, but failed to do so in the westernmost section of the region, Eastern Europe, continue to have some degree of influence in the Caucasus, west of Turkish Eurasia, they are increasing their influence in the east Caspian. This

is the result of Vladimir Putin’s deter- to expand, came to a standstill, and mined policies, coupled with the mis- bases in Uzbekistan were shut down. takes of the US and the EU, Iran’s ne- It is important to note that US military glect of the region and Turkey’s shift of strength, an important tool for provinterest from this region to Africa and ing political and economic dominance the Middle East. Furthermore, to some in this region, with its strategically sigextent, the Russians, knowing the geo- nificant place in world geopolitics, was political significance of Eurasia by ex- offset by the Russian SCO initiative. In perience, have blocked foreign powers order to prevent US domination, a milifrom the heart of this region, Turkes- tary presence was necessary and Russia used this strategy wisely. tan, by establishing the To elaborate, it is necesShanghai Cooperation The Russian sary to point out the benOrganization (SCO). Federation is no efits of a military presence On the other hand, in doubt the biggest to a foreign power that the early 1990s, the US profit winner enters a region. These and Western powers among the foreign benefits are; set their eyes on the Geopolitically, region’s rich hydrocarpowers of Turkic foreign powers that have bon resources. In orEurasia, from the a military presence in the der to acquire natural Balkans to East region become influential resources, the region Turkestan. in the host country and should be controlled enable the host country to and the region’s states should be made semi-dependent. Thus, serve the foreign power’s interest Economically, a military presnatural resources will be controlled and the security of transport routes will be ence enables control of natural resourcmaintained. To this end, the US, with es, especially in Central Asia, and their the assistance of NATO powers, occu- use according to the foreign power’s pied Afghanistan, the most strategic re- wishes and interests. From this perspective, the US has gion in Central Asia. Bases were established in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. failed in the region due to preventive However, the occupation that the US measures by Russia and China, and initiated in Afghanistan, and planned especially Russia’s advantage: political EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Central Asia

While discussing regional political and economic control of the international transport of the region’s natural developments, we must mention Russia’s Asia policy. We also have to stress resources. Since Vladimir Putin’s presidency, that Russian political effectiveness in Russian foreign policy has changed the Central Asia depends ethnic and significantly, with Russia beginning to cultural elements and Russia’s relations pursue more active policies in line with and experiences with the peoples of their reignited desire to become a re- the region. Russia effectively uses both their former bureaucrats; i.e., leaders gional power. Russia, without doubt the most pow- in Central Asian nations, and people erful strategic partner for states in the across Asia who are in the Communist parties of varying strength region, skillfully used and are devoted to Marxits cultural power. The The Russian ist ideology. official use of Cyril alFederation is no The most significant phabet in most nations, doubt the biggest element of Russian diplothe use of the Russian profit winner macy in Central Asia is language in communiamong the foreign cooperation with China. cation, and the extenThis cooperation was sive use of Russian in powers of Turkic strengthened, especially education are some inEurasia, from the with the 2001 China-Rusdicators of the continuBalkans to East ity of Russian cultural sia Friendship and Peace Turkestan. Agreement, and concrete dominance. This situasteps have been taken tion also Russia power over Turkey, which was consciously under the auspices of the SCO. While blocked from the region by putting Ar- China could have been Russia’s most menia and Georgia between them, as important competitor in Asia, these two giant regional powers are united against well as foreign powers. 58

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a more powerful competitor. Thus Russia, which feels confined by US, has opened a space for struggle against the Americans. Thus China and Russia will continue to be as powerful as the US, and we can say that do not expect more radical change for at least ten years.

Economic Developments Since the socioeconomic crisis during the early years of its independence, Central Asian nations have attracted the interest of global capital due to their rich natural resources and consumer markets. Initiatives that would shape regional and global relations intensified during this period. However, the pangs of transition from a communist system to a liberal system continued for a long time. The Soviet Union’s industrialization policy built dependent, rather than integrated, economies, preventing Central Asian nations from developing selfsufficient production capabilities, and leading some industrial plants to close down. Consequently, continuous international cooperation was needed and it needed to be rapidly intensified. Thus,

Central Asia initially international cooperation to this end was arranged without Russian supervision when the Central Asia Economic Community (CAEC) was established. Tajikistan later joined the original members, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. This economic community worked to foster the free flow of goods, services, labour and capital. Within this framework, standardization of taxes, prevention of double taxing, utilization of water resources and ecological security was also aimed. Although, EU-like cooperation was planned for this economic community, for various reasons, its goals could not be realized. Perhaps the most important obstacle was the Russian Federation’s policy of preventing the interference of foreign powers. In addition, Uzbekistan’s prioritization of domestic politics and Kazakhstan’s policies in favor of regional integration and nation-building led these two countries, which could have been the motors of economic integration, to neglect the community. We can see that, due to their geographic and political effectiveness, China and Russia are the primary players in the region, and South Korea, India, Japan and Turkey are secondary in a few economic sectors. In particular, China’s initiative to fill the economic and political gap in Central Asia shows that it aims both to control the new markets for the sake of its growing economy and export needs, and to offset Russian influence in the region by establishing its own new zone of influence. This is why China is making it a priority to complete transportation infrastructure establishing direct links between China and the region and developing trade between the region and the province of East Turkestan, which borders the region. Thus in 2006, Uzbekistan’s textile sector received 84.5 million dollars in international investments and 18 new plants were opened, and Uzbekistan, which exported 3.5 million dollars worth of textile products in 1994, has reached its current 441 million dollar export capacity. The administration, aware

of Uzbekistan’s rich natural resources velop more quickly. Consequently, Rusand the importance of opening up to sia will not be able to maintain control foreign markets for industry and trade, as it desires, and exclude other players has taken significant steps in past years. like it has in the past. In the next ten To this end, Asia Development Bank years, Russia may lose in the region, has planned the realization of the 173 both economically and politically. It is important to note that, as long million dollar “Guzar-Buhara-NukusBeinau” motorway project, the north- as seventy years ago, the region’s nanorthwest “Alma Ata-Bishkek-Tash- tions began to realize that they are kent-Termez,” the “Nevai-Uckucuk,” the inseparable parts of West Turkesand the south-southwest “Semerkant- tan and that they need to support and Nevai-Buhara-Alat” road projects. The complement each other. Despite the rich natural resources of “Silk Road” to the Gulf the nations of Turkesof Basra and the Black The US will tan, transportation issues Sea would be realized. compete in fiercely make it difficult for them Moreover, the “Tashwith Russia in open up to foreign marguzar-Baysun-KumkurCentral Asia for kets. This fact will force gan” railroad, which them to further inteis under construction the next ten years. grate. Especially and first in the Surkhamderya of all, the Kazakh-Kyrgyz region, is about to be completed. This road would connect Union will make it possible to resolve difficult to reach regions in Uzbekistan, the region’s problems and, depending and also reach the Indian Ocean via Af- on the reduction of autocratic tendenghanistan and Pakistan. All of these are cies, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and not only beneficial for Uzbekistan, but even Tajikistan could join the union. All of these relations and developfor all of Turkestan’s nations, because as long as transportation and pipelines ments shows that in the next ten years continue to pass through Russian ter- the sole superpower, for the time being, ritory they will continue to be depen- the United States, will not give up on dent on Moscow. On the other hand, the nations of Turkestan and will mainbreaking this monopoly and activating tain its presence in Afghanistan. Siminew transportation routes, like Baku- larly, the US will compete in fiercely Ceyhan, will enable these nations to be with Russia in Central Asia for the next more independent and help them to de- ten years. EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Armenian Question

Forging the past: OUP and the ‘Armenian question’ By Prof. Jeremy Salt*

n 2005 Oxford University Press on the ground is raising an emaciated published Donald Bloxham’s The arm. If stretched out to its full length it Great Game of Genocide. Impe- would fall below his knees. His scarcely rialism, Nationalism and the Destruc- visible other hand and wrist seem quite tion of the Ottoman Armenians. The plump by comparison. The little boy first hardback edition was followed by a sitting to the right of the standing man paperback version in 2007. The book is seems to be clutching something in his more of a prosecutor’s brief than a bal- hand but it is impossible to tell what it anced study of the fate of the Ottoman might be. Armenians during the First World War, Suspicions aroused, the photograph but forgery and not balance is the point is taken to a photographic analyst in of this article. Ankara. He is not told what the subject The book includes nine photo- matter of the photograph is supposed graphs printed on glossy paper. Eight to be. He subjects the photo to a 2400of the photographs are credited. One is fold pixel magnification. The pixels not. It shows a man in an come up like little crossunbuttoned jacket and es. It takes him ten minThe book is more tie standing in front of a utes to conclude that of a prosecutor’s circle of ragged children this is not a ‘photograph’ brief than a and one apparent adult at all but a photographic balanced study with something in his soup, composed of bits of the fate of hand. The caption reads: and pieces taken from ‘A Turkish official tauntother photographs. the Ottoman ing starving Armenians The technical giveArmenians during with bread’. away is the pixels. Were the First World Even a cursory glance the photograph genuWar. is enough to show there ine they would have to is something wrong with be homogeneous but this photo. One side of the man’s jacket they are not. They are leaning in variis darker than the other. A ragged line ous different directions. Otherwise the clearly runs between the two halves. analyst concludes that the man’s right The wall in the background abruptly arm does not belong to the body. It has disappears into a blank white space become from somewhere else. His right hind the standing man. A child lying leg seems to have disappeared alto-

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gether. The boy sitting on the ground on the man’s right is not clutching anything at all. The forger simply did not take enough care when cutting the paper around the fingers in the photograph from which his figure was taken. The man in the caption obviously

Ben Kiernan

Armenian Question

Donald Bloxham

cannot be a ‘Turkish official’ as there was no Turkey at the time the photo was apparently taken (i.e. during or shortly after the First World War). A similar reference to ‘Turkish soldiers’ appears in the caption of one of the other photographs. Having finally been told what the photograph of the standing man is supposed to Even a cursory be, the analyst points glance is enough out the obvious, that no to show there is Ottoman memur or civil something wrong servant would be dressed with this photo. in an unbuttoned jacket over a shirt with a collar and tie. He would be wearing i a collarll less shirt buttoned up to the neck. Almost certainly (definitely for a photograph) he would have a fez on his head, and it is hardly likely that an Ottoman have taken the photograph unless the memur would pose for such a photo- standing man and the starving children graph anyway. agreed to hold their poses or to reenact Furthermore, given the cumber- the tableau when he was ready. some equipment photographers had Oxford University Press had already to carry around with them early in the been informed (by the writer of this ar20th century, even if the photographer ticle) that the ‘photograph’ was a forgarrived on the scene just as this ‘Turkish ery when Servet Hassan, the General official’ was tormenting starving chil- Coordinator of the Federation of Turkdren with a piece of bread he could not ish Associations in the UK followed up

with a complaint in October. Responding to her protest, in an e-mail sent on October 19, Christopher Wheeler, OUP’s history publisher, conceded that that the ‘photograph’ was a forgery. ‘Existing stock’ of the book had been destroyed but the ‘photograph’ had been retained in a new printing with the following caption: ‘This photograph purports to be an EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Armenian Question

Ottoman [sic.] official taunting starv- picture itself. It is a cautionary tale ing Armenians with bread. It is a fake, for historians, many of whom are betcombining elements of two (or more) ter trained in testing and using written separate photographs: a demonstra- sources than in evaluating photographic evidence. The publishtion were one needed ers and author are grateof the propaganda This is not a ful to have had the forgery stakes on both sides ‘photograph’ at all drawn to their attention’. of the genocide issue but a photographic In a follow-up letter with evidence of all soup, composed written on November Mr sorts manipulated for Wheeler, describing the latterday political purof bits and pieces poses. The photograph forgery as a ‘composite taken from other photograph’, said OUP was also included when photographs. regarded republication of the book was first pubthe ‘photograph’ with a lished but then was believed to be genuine. It had previously fresh caption as ‘a more effective rejoinbeen used in Gérard Chaliand and der to the forger than silently dropping Yves Ternon’s Le Genocide des Armé- his or her photograph from the book’. niens (1980), which shows that prior Although the unknown provenance of use is no substitute for rigorous inves- the ‘photograph’ could have created tigation of a picture’s provenance – and suspicions, ‘it is by no means uncomin the absence of clear provenance, for mon for photographs from this period a minutely detailed examination of the to lack one. And while the forgery is no 62

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masterpiece, without magnification it does not deceive the naked eye. These are not excuses for having been ‘taken in’ but they are mitigation’. The letter ends with a reference to forgeries going back to the Donation of Constantine and the need for historians and publishers to be vigilant. There is no mention of what could and should be done about copies of the book already sold, particularly those on the shelves of libraries around the world. The caption in the new printing slides over all the important issues. Of course, there is propaganda on ‘both sides’, but there is nothing on the Turkish ‘side’ (as far as this writer is aware) to compare with the textual and photographic forgeries manufactured on the Armenian ‘side’. It is very difficult to take at face value the statement that when the book was first published the photograph ‘was believed to be genu-

Armenian Question ine’. Nine photographs were pub- a Turk who has adopted the Armenian Professor of Genocide Studies at Yale lished. Eight were properly sourced version of history in all its essential University, does in his recent publicaand one was not sourced at all, not details, utilises the plan in the text of tion Blood and Soil. A World History even to the Chaliand and Ternon book. his own tendentious book 1, observing of Genocide and Extermination from This suggests that someone must have only in a footnote that the British were Sparta to Darfur (Yale University had doubts about the authenticity of ‘skeptical’ of its authenticity. Bloxham Press, 2007). The ‘plan’ is the platform this photograph (which until 2008 at himself has described the ‘plan’ as ‘du- for his brief examination of the fate of least was displayed prominently in the bious at best and probably a fake’.2 In the Ottoman Armenians and the acMuseum of the Armenian Genocide fact, the ‘plan’ certainly is a fake. cusations he makes that the Ottoman in Yerevan. It can also In short, no serious government drew up a plan to extermibe found online in the historian could possibly nate them. No Ottoman US Library of Contake this plan as gospel What is extraordinary here is that it memur or civil gress – again without truth, but this is exactly would have taken no more than a curservant would a source). Over and what Ben Kiernan, an sory check to establish that this ‘plan’ be dressed in an above all of this, it does Australian who is now is suspect at least, is almost certainly not take a ‘minutely unbuttoned jacket detailed examination’ over a shirt with a or magnification to see collar and tie. that this ‘photograph’ is most probably and almost certainly a fake. OUP is usually meticulous in its sourcing. In his message to Servet Hassan on October 19 Mr Wheeler admits that there was no ‘clear provenance’ for the photograph. This implies that someone must have had misgivings. So why did the book’s editors allow this fake to go to press? Forgeries have been part of the ‘Armenian question’ since the 1920s, produced with the intention of proving what could not otherwise be proved. The most notorious of them is the Andonian papers, a collection of ‘telegrams’ and other ‘documents’ purporting to show that the CUP government (and especially Talat Paşa) deliberately set out to exterminate the Armenians. These were shown to be forgeries more than 20 years ago but still surface from time to time, most notably in the writings of the journalist Robert Fisk. Another ‘document’, appearing during the British occupation of Istanbul, is the ‘ten point plan’, supposedly drawn up by the CUP government sometime late in 1914 or early in 1915, according to which all male Armenians under 50 were to be exterminated, with girls and women converted to Islam. The ‘plan’ was handed to the British Armenian Patriarch Mesrob II (L), Turkey’s minister of Culture Atilla Koc (C) by an Ottoman functionary. Then lookand Deputy Culture Minister of Armenian’s Gagik Gyurjian (R) cut the ribbon ing for evidence against the prisoners during the opening ceremony of Armenian Akhtamar church. they were holding in Malta, the British did not make use of it. Taner Akcam, EurasiaCritic Special Edition 2010

Armenian Question Armenian women working with wool in Van Eastern Anatolia in 1915.

a fake and is worthy of a footnote at which recently passed a genocide resomost. Did no one at Yale University lution, apparently know more of TurkPress think of asking Ben Kiernan to ish and Ottoman history than the Turks come up with a better source than his do. There could hardly be a clearer only source for this accusation, Vahakn example of neo-Orientalism. It would be far too much to say Dadrian, a committed that the members of these Armenian national hisForgeries have parliaments know little of torian and propaganbeen part of late Ottoman history. It dist for the Armenian the ‘Armenian would only be accurate to cause? question’ since the say that they know next to It is often said that nothing of Ottoman histhere are none so blind 1920s, produced tory apart from what they as those who will not with the intention have been spoon-fed by see. Everyone knows of proving lobbyists or have read in what happened to the what could not books such as those writArmenians, everyone otherwise be has the right to say ten by Ben Kiernan, Taner proved. whatever they want Akçam or Donald Bloxexcept the Turks. They ham. Very few books or b l h i l are allowed into the western are kept out of this debate altogether. articles Barack Obama, members of the US cultural mainstream as a counter-narCongress, members of European parlia- rative. The Armenian question as it has ments and parliaments elsewhere, even been written into the western narrative of the South Australian parliament, has long since passed from history into 64

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theology. It has been sacralized and history, in this instance the need to deconstruct this issue on the basis of all the known ‘facts’ and not just some of them, suffers as a result. This, it seems, is how forgeries such as those described in this article get into print. References 1 Taner Akcam A Shameful Act. The Armenian Genocide and the Question of Turkish Responsibility (London: Constable and Robinson, 2007). 2 History Today, July 2005, issue 7, p. 68, Bloxham’s reply to a letter to the editor following the publication of his article ‘Rethinking the Armenian Genocide’ in the June, 2005, issue. I wish to thank Erman Şahin for drawing this letter to my attention. *Prof Jeremy Salt teaches in the Department of Political Science at Bilkent University Ankara. He is the author of Imperialism, Evangelism and the Ottoman Armenians 1878-1896 (London: Frank Cass, 1993) and The Unmaking of the Middle East. A History of Western Disorder in Arab Lands (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008).