How can we be ready to deal with unforeseen events?
How can people develop the skills and competence required to deal with unexpected situations?
We spoke to Professor Dorothy Sutherland Olsen and Professor Glenn-Egil Torgersen about their work in developing new theoretical concepts around the competence required to deal with unforeseen events, which can then inform new ways of training and learning.
Many of us grow used to routine in our daily lives, and develop skills and competence relevant to the tasks that we perform on a regular basis, yet we may also have to deal with the impact of an unforeseen event like a natural disaster, terrorist attack, or pandemic. Education has an important role to play in helping people and organisations respond effectively to unforeseen events, yet this is not like preparing for a conventional exam. “We do not have clear learning objectives when we are looking to develop competence related to dealing with unforeseen events,” points out GlennEgil Torgersen, Professor in the Department of Educational Science at the University of SouthEastern Norway (USN). As part of his work in a project funded by the Research Council of Norway, Professor Torgersen is exploring the concept of the unforeseen together with a team of researchers, which will provide a basis for more effective education in this area. “In order to facilitate practical teaching and training for the unforeseen and for innovative processes, we first need to know what people need to learn,” he says.
The degree to which an event can be thought of as unforeseen is an important consideration in this respect. While the outbreak of Covid-19 and its wider consequences came as a shock to many people for example, scientists had warned that a flu-like pandemic was likely to occur at some point, whereas other events may have no clear precedent. “The nature of the unforeseen is governed by many factors, including familiarity, number of warning signals and time, as well as time between identification of warning signals and the event,” outlines Professor Torgersen. Even when there are clear warning signals they may be ignored, as organisations can grow complacent over time. “Organisations may come to believe that their own system is watertight,
and enter certain patterns of behaviour, often rooted in politics and economics. They may exclude new ideas,” says Professor Torgersen. “Societal pressures and stresses also contribute to this. People may become closed to new thinking, and lack the imagination and calmness to see new possibilities and solutions.”
Innovation theories
This is one of the issues being explored in the project, which brings together several different strands of research, including elements of educational science and innovation studies. People who work with highly innovative ideas and technologies are used to anticipating situations that may or may not occur, and this competence may be well suited to dealing with unforeseen events. “We thought we could use some theories about the innovation process to help businesses become better at tackling the unforeseen,” says Dorothy Sutherland Olsen, a research Professor at the Nordic Institute for Studies, Research and Innovation (NIFU) who is leading the project. Contrary to the popular idea of a lone inventor, a huge number of people are typically involved in developing innovations and new ideas. “Innovations are often a result of the
cross-fertilisation of ideas,” continues Professor Olsen. “Translating an idea into a new product might require infrastructure and resources, which a single person or firm can’t typically provide, so you need others to be involved.”
The project team are now looking to incorporate elements of innovation theory in new theoretical concepts, part of the goal of helping people deal with unforeseen events more effectively. Researchers are conducting a survey to investigate how individuals and companies approach dealing with unforeseen events. “In one part of the survey we are working quantitatively, and doing a survey with both public and private sector companies. In the other part we are interviewing people in these organisations,” says Professor Olsen. As part of her role in the project, Professor Olsen is conducting interviews and probing peoples’ experience of unforeseen events. “What did they do? How surprised were they? How did they react? What was unexpected, what would they have done differently? These are the kinds of questions we have been asking,” she outlines. “We found that most people have a fairly well-thought out concept of the unforeseen and almost all had thought about it in advance. However, they have not reflected on what makes them good at dealing with the unforeseen, or how some form of learning might make them better.”
Planning for the unforeseen
There are also certain industries where people work on the assumption that unforeseen events will occur and plan accordingly, for example construction managers responsible for big projects often put in a lot of slack. It might be that new building materials become available or regulations are modified, changes to which managers would need to adapt. “Their way of dealing with that is often to put in extra time in their plans and money in their budget. Other
organisations put more emphasis on having people available on call to react quickly to an unforeseen event,” says Professor Olsen. The project team is using a concept called Futures Literacy, championed by Unesco, to encourage companies to think about alternative futures, envision what they may look like, and develop scenarios. “We aim to put a more educational science perspective on the Futures Literacy method, and to try it out in some of the firms that we’ve been talking to,” explains Professor Olsen. “We’ve run workshops with this future literacy method, to help them build visions of the future.”
involving composite (hybrid) attacks. Blindfolds and other sensory-reducing measures are also used, to practice the skills of observing details during situations (concurrent learning). They’re looking to develop skills, emotional awareness and learning strategies that will make them better able to cope with unforeseen events. It can contribute to new practical learning methods in other areas as well and be a tool for seeing new opportunities in everyday life and in developing competence for an uncertain future.”
This type of approach to unforeseen events is not always part of the established culture within major organisations, and change costs
“The nature of the unforeseen is governed by many factors, including familiarity, number of warning signals and time, as well as time between identification of warning signals and the event.”
The wider aim of this research is to put organisations in a better position to tackle unforeseen events through improved training. New teaching and working methods are being developed in the project which differ significantly from conventional approaches, as Professor Olsen explains. “It is important to free yourself from established thoughts, systems and rules. However, it is also important to practice improvisation, see opportunities, and think outside the box,” she stresses. At USN, Professor Torgersen runs courses on the unforeseen, which includes lectures from former Olympic skier Hedda Berntsen. “She talks about how, as a sportsperson, you have to anticipate the snow conditions and react appropriately within a very short time. The students have been encouraged to think about how she takes these decisions,” says Professor Torgersen.
“They’ve also simulated mountain climbing expeditions and have done surprise exercises
both money and time. However, developing competence around the unforeseen can bring significant benefits to companies, believes Professor Olsen. “Our research and our papers show that there are good opportunities to improve. However, it is also important that the companies themselves are convinced and see the opportunities that a greater focus on the unforeseen will bring,” she says. For his part, Professor Torgersen intends to continue his research in this area, with plans in train for a further project. “A lot of empirical data has been gathered in the project, which we can use in future research and we are looking at new opportunities with potential partners,” he continues. “We hope to collaborate with partners from beyond our established network, which consists of over 50 researchers from Norway and beyond. We want to attract PhD students from outside Scandinavia, who will bring new ideas and perspectives.”
fOr THE
u nfOrESEEn (Du -Inn)
using educational science and innovation to prepare managers and employees to work with unforeseen events
Project Objectives
Many events contain unseen elements. These can have consequences for you and I, for those dealing with the event and for society in general (eg. Pandemics, terror, financial crises, and natural catastrophes). Our main question is therefore: How can we best prepare ourselves for the unforeseen?
Project funding
Funded by the Research Council of Norway NFR (2021-2024). Project number 325870/H20
Project Participants
https://www.theunforeseen.no/ prosjektdeltagere/
contact Details
Project Coordinator,
Professor Dorothy Sutherland Olsen, PhD NIFU Nordic institute for studies of innovation, research and education Økernveien 9, 0653 Oslo, Norway T: +47 906 49 500 E: dorothy.olsen@nifu.no
W: https://www.theunforeseen.no
Dorothy Sutherland Olsen is a Senior Research Professor at the Nordic Institute for studies of innovation, research & education (NIFU) and has a PhD from the faculty of Educational Science at the University of Oslo. She worked in business for many years where she managed technology development projects.
Glenn-Egil Torgersen is Professor Dr. of Education at University of South-Eastern Norway. He is leader and editor of several basic research projects and publications on the Unforeseen, social interaction and educational theory development, including aesthetic forms of expressions.
