DELEGATE PREPERATION KIT Booklet of Academic Overviews for the European Youth Parliament – Ukraine Weekend in Boryspil October 18-19, 2014
“New Ukraine: Local Agenda” “Нова Україна: локальний план дій”
COMMITTEE TOPICS CULT – Committee on Culture and Education Bearing in mind that 22,8% of Ukrainian population is represented by different cultural diasporas, how can minority languages, culture and traditions be protected along with further promotion of Ukrainian language and national and cultural identity?
ITRE – Committee on Industry, Research and Energy Gas supply has been a hot topic ever since gas crisis in 2008-2009 and the recent conflicts with Russia has put the question point-blank. Considering the uncertainty of the natural gas supply from Russia and the ever increasing prices of fossil fuels, what measures could be taken to cut energy spending, enhance energy efficiency and ensure the energy security of Ukraine?
REGI – Committee on Regional Development Ukrainian locals often have little involvement in the development of their native regions feeling detached from resources and lacking power to make decisions. With the administrative reform announced by the Cabinet of Ministers, how should the local governance system be reformed in order to activate the participation of local communities and make them a real engine of positive change and decision-making?
SEDE – Committee on Security and Defence Continent of peace in 2014: in the light of the recently awarded Nobel Peace Prize, how can the EU best contribute to fostering peace in Ukraine and Europe, and to what extent should this be achieved through the use of military means?
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TOPIC OVERVIEWS CULT – Committee on Culture and Education Bearing in mind that 22,8% of Ukrainian population is represented by different cultural diasporas, how can minority languages, culture and traditions be protected along with further promotion of Ukrainian language and national and cultural identity? By Kyrylo Korol & Daniil Lubkin 1. Key Terms European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD) European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages (ECRML) 2. Explanation of the Topic Globalization is leading the world to develop and making us establish international connections among each other. In order to do this, there needs to be some essential requirements such as protection of human rights and respecting every single culture and country. This leads to de-facto erasure of borders between countries, allowing people of other nationalities to live freely their communities regardless of location. However, the peculiarities of cultures are often misunderstood: from teachers in schools and to employers in workplaces. This causes many individuals to be discriminated in their essential natural human rights. What can be concluded is that we need to improve our culture and understanding of others first, before even moving to changes in legislature. There are some solutions to this problem, but according to the Ukrainian Commissioner’s for Human Rights special report “Observance and Protection of the Rights of National Minorities” done in 2006 “there are many complaints coming from minority members because of discrimination in governmental bodies, at work or even on streets”. By 2014, the situation has not changed dramatically, but some additional issues have arisen. Russian communities expressed their concerns about the lack of financial allocations for the need of ethnic minorities and bureaucratic obstructions by local authorities; there is a huge need of developing a new language law, which Russians will
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mostly positively perceive, but not Ukrainians in the case of 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. We also have to keep in mind that the development of Ukrainian culture is now a primary goal, especially after the Euromaidan events. Furthermore, we should understand that after Euromaidan, Ukrainians are facing a very ethical problem whether straight nationalism or multiculturalism is the best way forward. We have to keep in mind that if you provide more freedom to nationalists, then there is a chance Pravyi Sector will behave unnaturally aggressive. On the other hand, if you emphasize on multicultural relations, then it could lead to other referendums on separation. 3. Clashes Ukrainian interethnic policy is mainly based on the provisions of its Constitution and a number of legislative acts; they claim equal opportunities for all citizens, regardless of their ethnic and social origin etc. However, we face an issue called “declarative legislature”, which means these acts do not really work well. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski has a point that Ukrainian MPs made a mistake cancelling the 2012 law “On State Language Policy”. It allowed the country’s regions to use more official languages in addition to Ukrainian, if they were spoken by over 10 percent of the local population. It caused the instability in the Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine. Also, remember that when this law was enforced, it all ended up with massive protests of Ukrainian people. The negative point in this issue is that cultural and ethnic discrimination is a very common thing even in governmental structures and law enforcement bodies. It happens very often, when members of national minorities are subject to torture by police. Ukrainian culture has to be developed first, before requirements stated in main laws concerning minorities’ rights will fully be upheld. Ukrainian culture is now well-promoted due to the situation in the country, where we seek national and cultural identity. The promotion goes really well, but will we be able to continue developing patriotic mood if minorities’ rights issue would be emphasized? Finally, we have to remember that Ukraine has democracy as its base. It means that we should consider every thought so that everyone is taken care of. However, we can we sacrifice lots of aspects such as a national idea, so that it is not radical?
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4. Existing Measures To enhance the interaction of national minority organizations with the central executive authorities and local self-government, in 2000 the Council of NGOs of national minorities under the President of Ukraine was created. But this advance was eliminated, and all decrees of the President of Ukraine concerning its activities were recognized as invalid. Instead, it formed the Council for Ethnic Policy as an advisory body to the President of Ukraine. Furthermore, the law "On National Minorities in Ukraine" provides for the establishment Standing Committees on National Relations in the Parliament and local councils. However, Commissioner installed Advisory bodies with representatives of national minorities established in many local authorities, but they do not always work well, and in many cases - simply formally. Unfortunately, the public is not given any information on the use of budget funds for minority. 5. Key Actors The Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine The Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights UN, UNESCO, OSCE, Council of Europe. 6. Key Questions In what way can the Ukrainian government regulate cultural problems such as xenophobia, ethnical conflicts, separatism etc.? Are there some ways of solutions that already exist and can be implemented in Ukraine? How can ethnical conflicts be solved on the east of Ukraine and in the Crimea? Which steps should be taken to reduce ethnical tension? How can international organizations (such as UN and UNESCO, OSCE, Council of Europe) help Ukraine in solving these problems? Should other languages such as Russian and Crimean Tatar language be protected? If yes, in which ways?
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7. Links for Further Research 1. On the protection of the national minority rights in Ukrainehttp://usa.mfa.gov.ua/ua/press-center/news/18859-on-the-protection-of-the-nationalminority-rights-in-ukraine 2. Ukrainian overview by World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples http://www.minorityrights.org/5053/ukraine/ukraine-overview.html 3.The Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights http://www.ombudsman.gov.ua/en/ 4. Are Non-Russian Ethnic Minorities Facing Persecution In Ukraine? http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraineunspun-minorities-facingpersecution/25317466.html
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ITRE – Committee on Industry, Research and Energy Gas supply has been a hot topic ever since gas crisis in 2008-2009 and the recent conflicts with Russia has put the question point-blank. Considering the uncertainty of the natural gas supply from Russia and the ever increasing prices of fossil fuels, what measures could be taken to cut energy spending, enhance energy efficiency and ensure the energy security of Ukraine? By Anastasia Grigorash & Pavel Lysenko 1. Key Terms Energy security, Energy system, Gas supply, Gas Transportation System (GTS) , "Naftogaz", The Oil and Gas sector, Transfer fluids, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal, Shale gas. Enterprise - an independent organization with legal personality which produces and sells goods or services. Energy sector- the area of economic activities concerned with conversion, distribution and use of energy resources of all kinds for people Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal - this special terminal helps to liquefy and send the LNG. It also is meant for receiving and regasification of liquefied natural gas. GTS - The gas transportation system of Ukraine. "Naftogaz" - National Joint Stock Company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" is the leading fuel energy complex, one of the largest companies in Ukraine.
Alternative energy - refers to energy sources that have no undesired consequences such for example fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Alternative energy sources are renewable and are thought to be "free" energy sources. They all have lower carbon emissions, compared to conventional energy sources. These include Biomass Energy, Wind Energy, Solar Energy, Geothermal Energy,Hydroelectric Energy sources. Combined with the use of recycling, the use of clean alternative energies such as the home use of solar power systems will help ensure man's survival into the 21st century and beyond.
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2. Explanation of the Topic Today, Ukraine is a country that is energy deficient. Oil and Gas reserves are insufficient and can’t meet the needs of the economy. At the expense of domestic production, state provides only 25% of the gas and oil. Ukraine is heavily dependent on energy imports from Russia. But the problem itself lies in the fact that Russia has become an unstable supplier. Therefore, Ukraine is more than ever-vulnerable and the situation of energy security requires fundamental changes in the very near future. 3. Clashes The core of Ukrainian-Russian gas controversies has been the same for years. Political independence of Ukraine is correlated with a high gas price of Russian gas. For Ukraine the end of the Yanukovych regime and the turn towards the EU meant a rapid (but not unexpected) rise of the gas price (over 80% since April) and a demand for the quick payment of real and alleged debts. Ukraine demands a lower gas price as a prerequisite for the settling of debts, while Russia wants Ukraine to pay its debts first, and only then wants to talk about a lower price. The fact that Ukraine has paid off a small part of its gas debts (May 30), did not lead to a compromise – it merely pushed forward the deadline for the payment of the majority of debt and gave a bit more time for negotiations. Russia has now switched to a system of prepayments – Ukraine is to receive only the amount of commodity for which it has paid in advance. This measure entered into force on June 16 – and as Ukraine had not paid for future supplies (partly as a result of the price dispute), Russia halted supplies. At that time, Russia accused Ukrainian parties of illegally siphoning off gas supplies. The details of those alleged gas stealing incidents – who exactly was responsible for what – have never been definitely clarified. Nevertheless it is evident that gas supplies for Ukrainian internal needs and transit to the EU remain strongly interconnected. The gas is transported through the same infrastructure. In addition, there is insufficient transparency and information about the parameters of the gas flows through the Ukrainian transmission system. For one thing, there is still no gas metering station on the Eastern border of Ukraine. The Ukrainian crisis has a number of serious consequences, particularly for EU energy supply security. Currently, Europe has few immediate gas diversification options and heavily relies on Russian imports, which supplied approximately 30% of its needs in
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2013. Thus, any interruption to this supply would have obvious ramifications. And while there are a number of alternative gas import options looming on the horizon, such as shale gas in the form of LNG from the US and conventional gas from Azerbaijan, the Eastern Mediterranean, Iraqi Kurdistan and even Iran, most of these options will not become a reality for the EU until at least the start of the next decade. Until then, the EU’s dependence on Russian gas will almost certainly increase in light of declining indigenous gas production. Even beyond 2020, Russia will remain one of the largest foreign suppliers of natural gas to the EU. The EU should assist Ukraine in increasing by all feasible means its immediate resilience to Russian gas supply disruptions. This can be done in several ways.The EU should help curb internal demand for gas by helping Ukraine to implement available energy efficiency and fuel-switching measures.As those options are rather limited in the short term, it will also be necessary to continue to search for possibilities to diversify the country’s gas supplies. The only currently functioning alternatives to the Russian gas connections are those with Poland and Hungary, which allow for the supply of about 20-25% of Ukraine’s current annual import demand (and only about 10% of import demand during the peak consumption winter season). One additional option that could be pursued in the short term is to enable reverse gas flow from Slovakia. If so-called large reverse flow on one of the main gas transit pipelines from Ukraine to Slovakia becomes feasible (following the example of Poland, which succeeded in starting virtual reverse flow in the aftermath of the 2009 gas crisis), it would allow for the replacement of most of Ukrainian gas imports from Russia. However, so far, after months of EU and US pressure, the two sides have only agreed to the possibility of launching so-called small reverse, allowing for supplying 8-10 bcm(Billions of cubic meters) of natural gas annually, and this winter possibly even less. Combined with the Polish and Hungarian connections, as well as domestic production, this would allow securing a maximum of 40-50% of Ukraine’s natural gas demand this winter. In this context it is essential to support Ukraine’s efforts to increase its gas stocks substantially. It is necessary to establish a mechanism of filling Ukrainian gas storages with the gas volumes necessary for transit stability purposes for the nearest autumnwinter season (minimum 10-12 bcm). There are, at this moment, no concrete proposals as to who, on what basis, and at what price would buy and store the necessary gas for this purpose. Russia is not very likely to take on this responsibility, in the current situation. Ukraine itself tries to encourage Western companies to use its storages (third party access is possible, prices for storage are low). However, to date the EU and
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western companies have not developed any concept under which they could become actively engaged in filling up Ukrainian storages for the purpose of stable transit to EU. Like the Russians, European companies are probably not willing to take on the additional costs and risks without guarantees or mechanisms that would secure their interests. Finally the EU should find ways to increase security of gas transit in Ukraine by providing monitoring of gas flows through the Ukrainian gas pipelines (and preferably also the stocks) and to improve access to information and transparency of data, for example by installing a gas metering station on Ukraine’s border with Russia and ensuring constant access to the metering stations on the western borders. 4. Existing Measures Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine Yuriy Prodan (August 18,2014) met with a delegation from the United States, chaired by the Deputy Minister of Energy of the United States William Bryan. During the meeting, the sides discussed issues of strengthening energy security, as well as issues related to the passage of the heating season in Ukraine. In turn, the American side noted willingness to contribute to strengthening the energy security of Ukraine. Deputy Secretary of State William Bryan stressed that the United States government is going to pass on his experience and working methods of the energy sector in crisis. Also, the American side promised to provide specialists for proper operation of the Anti-crisis energy headquarters, chaired by the Vice-Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman. In addition, Ukraine and Russia have filed lawsuits in the Stockholm arbitration: Ukraine - the establishment of a fair price for gas for the preservation of the existing contract and the recovery of 6 billion dollars. Overpayments as in previous periods. The claim of the Russian side - to recover from the Ukrainian debt for consumed fuel in the amount of $ 4.5 billion dollars. 5. Key Actors Of the total 19.3 billion cubic meters, "Naftogaz" will purchase from the Russian"Gazprom" and the German RWE.
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“Gazprom” is a global energy company. Its major business lines are geological exploration, production, transportation, storage, processing and sales of gas, gas condensate and oil, sales of gas as a vehicle fuel as well as generation and marketing of heat and electric power. Gazprom holds the world’s largest natural gas reserves. The Company owns the world’s largest gas transmission network – the Unified Gas Supply System of Russia. As Forbes reported, the main gas producer became "Ukrainian Oil and Gas Company" (UNGK), part of VETEK - Sergei Kurchenko. Following VETEK, "Donbass Fuel and Energy Company" (DTEK) - RinatAkhmetov - started to import gas. Division of the holding "DTEK Trading" is planning to buy this year, 400 million cubic meters, mainly in the Swiss energy trader AxpoTrading AG. The company's website states that it sells gas of Norwegian and Russian origin. RWE is one of Europe’s five leading electricity and gas companies. Through our expertise in oil, gas and lignite production; electricity generation from gas, coal, nuclear and renewables; energy trading as well as electricity and gas distribution and sales; we are active at all stages of the energy value chain. “Ukrnafta” is Ukraine's leading oil and gas company. In addition, the company is one of the leading fuel retailers in Ukraine. It operates 563 wholly-owned filling stations under Ukrnafta brand with a presence in most regions of the country. (Ukrainian Oil and Gas Company - UNGK) DTEK is the largest energy company in Ukraine, with efficient enterprises that mine and prepare coal as well as operate on electrical power generation and supply markets. The Company is the energy division of System Capital Management (SCM), one of Ukraine’s leading financial and industrial groups. 6. Key Questions What is energy security in Ukraine? How to enhance it? How can we reduce the supply of gas from Russia? How can we diversify the energy supply? How can Ukraine to work to ensure its own energy security? Should we become more independent?
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Do you think that "Gazprom" and the other actors make an effort to block the development of non-traditional and alternative energy sources, particularly in the Ukraine? What should be done about this? 7. Links for Further Research Energy Security in Focus as Ukraine/Unsettles EU Talks/Gazprom Bill/Europe’s Challenge http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-15/energy-security-in-focus-as-ukraineunsettles-eu-talks.html Why do Ukraine need a LNG Terminal? http://forbes.ua/opinions/1366016-zachem-ukraine-lng-terminal Information about Ukraine-crises, Russian weaknesses and Transatlantic dilemmas? http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2014/NATO-Energy-security-running-onempty/Transatlantic-energy-security-Ukraine-crisis/EN/index.htm Why Ukraine’s dependence on Russia in nuclear is worse than in gas – and what to do about it? http://www.energypost.eu/ukrainian-nuclear-power-emerges-russian-shadow/
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REGI – Committee on Regional Development Ukrainian locals often have little involvement in the development of their native regions feeling detached from resources and lacking power to make decisions. With the administrative reform announced by the Cabinet of Ministers, how should the local governance system be reformed in order to activate the participation of local communities and make them a real engine of positive change and decision-making? By Artem Gusak & Maryna Titarenko 1. Key Terms Local governmental reform – the main idea of the concept is to promote the decentralization of the public governance authority and to substantially expand the powers of territorial communities. Was presented by Arseniiy Yatseniuk on April 1st. Local communities are territorial communities of villages, cities (directly and through villages), townships, city councils and their executive bodies and district and regional councils (which represent the interests of communities of villages, towns and cities). Cabinet of Ministers - is the highest body of state executive power in Ukraine, also referred to as the Government of Ukraine. 2. Explanation of the Topic During the last four years, at the time of Viktor Yanukovich being the President of Ukraine the governmental system was extremely centralized, which disempowered the local governance and destroyed the rights of people living in the regions and their ability for solving problems at the local level. Because of centralized governmental system, taxes from the regions often go to national treasury instead of spreading funds right away on the local needs. Variety of taxes and payments: Keeping employees, Utilities, luxury tax, excise duty, import duty, withholding tax (income tax from foreign companies), governmental duty, and value-added tax. Usually many citizens are hiding from paying taxes that is why not full amount of money is gained in the regions. Furthermore funds delivered to national treasury are
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partly stolen. For supporting the life in the whole country government allocates funds from national treasury to the local communities in the regions. Obtained funds are spread on local needs by local communities instead of saving them in the region without sending them to the national treasury. Power of the making decisions locally is in building the own structure of improvements according to their needs, not to follow the plan of the central governmental bodies. Moreover, the power consists of possibility common citizens to make suggestions and vote on the most important projects to be implemented. As it always happens, initiations are stopped by bureaucracy in our country. 3. Clashes If the local government gets more power, how can we prevent corruption? Because of the lack of taxes gained in small regions their funds could not be enough for economy support. Unprofessional use of this reform can collapse the whole economy especially big governmental procurement (gas, energy, petrol, etc.). Local politicians have special education in governing and civil service and are taught to make professional decisions. Citizens do not realize the whole picture of the problem because of the lack of special education on the topic. If we simplify the bureaucracy system many unclear and unrealisable projects can appear. Therefore, we need some measures to be in place to control the possibility of the project implementation. Decentralization of government can lead to small situational strikes in places that will get the governmental power. 4. Existing Measures During the meeting with the Swiss Ambassador to Ukraine Christian Schoenberger, VolodymyrHroisman admitted that the Government of Ukraine considers the issue of the decentralization the most important one to be reformed. According to what’s been said, after the adoption of the Local governmental reform the Regional Development Ministry in cooperation with Ukrainian experts will create some new amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine. This means the creation of a
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new three-level system of government where the base level of community is – a city, village or town which is empowered as well as a wide level of financial capacity. Volodymyr Hroisman also said that local taxes now on will be credited to the local budgets. According to the Minister, amendments to the Constitution to the Parliamentary Constitutional Committee must be completed by the end of the 2014. 5. Key Actors Cabinet of Ministers, Local communities, local governments, businessmen, private organizations 6. Key Questions What other programs can be implemented by the government to give more power to the local ones? What are the benefits of the supporting local government? Why do the regional governments need the help of the national one? How this reform can be completed? 7. Links for Further Research Volodymyr Hroisman: We offer to pin right of local government to national taxes in Constitution http://www.kmu.gov.ua/control/en/publish/printable_article?art_id=247243131 Ukraine: Processes, Results, Prospects – study and conference materials http://en.niss.gov.ua/public/File/englishpublic/Poslannya_2008_.pdf
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SEDE – Committee on Security and Defence Continent of peace in 2014: in the light of the recently awarded Nobel Peace Prize, how can the EU best contribute to fostering peace in Ukraine and Europe, and to what extent should this be achieved through the use of military means? By Lidia Zhgyr & Tetyana Tsapenko 1. Key Terms Charter of the United Nations: is the basic treaty of the United Nations. All member states of UN are bound by its articles. Article 103 of the Charter states that obligations to the United Nations prevail over all other treaty obligations. Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement: is a treaty between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine that commits Ukraine to economic, judicial and financial reforms to converge its policies and legislation to those of the European Union. Ukraine committed to gradually conform to EU technical and consumer standards. The EU agreed to provide Ukraine with political and financial support, access to research and knowledge, and preferential access to EU markets. The agreement commits both parties to promote a gradual convergence toward the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy under the Common Foreign and Security Policy 1(CFSP) and European Defence Agency2 policies. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT) is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament Support Group for Ukraine- a specific group of the European Commission which will assist Ukraine in cooperation with the EU, coordinate its work with the Member States, other donors and international financial institutions.
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The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) is the organized, agreed foreign policy of the European Union (EU) for mainly security and defence diplomacy and actions. The CFSP sees the NATO responsible for the territorial defence of Europe and "peace-making". However, since 1999, the European Union is responsible for implementing missions, such as "peace-keeping" and policing of treaties, etc. 2 The European Defence Agency is an agency of the European Union (EU) and a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) body reporting to the Council of the European Union. Its primary role is to foster European defence cooperation.
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The European Agenda for Reforms is a comprehensive road map of the Commission's and EEAS's contribution to the task of the development and fundamental transformation of Ukraine. The document combines Ukraine's short- and medium-term needs and matches them with support actions from the EU side. It provides clear indications on specific steps, the timelines and points of contacts in the respective administrations 2. Explanation of the Topic The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union (EU) was signed on June 27 2014. The Agreement stipulates closer political and economic cooperation of the EU and Ukraine, including a creation of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Russia’s discontent with the change of Ukraine’s political course has developed into the annexation of Crimea and support of pro-Russian separatist movements on the Eastern Ukrainian boarder. The new Ukrainian leaders took a firm stance on the Crimean and Donbass conflict, unwilling to recognize both the annexation of the peninsula and the Peoples Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. In response to this, the Russian Federation resumed gas disputes and trade discrimination against Ukrainian exports. The situation at the Eastern border of Ukraine has evolved from an uncontrolled local conflict to an international armed conflict, even though the Russian government hasn’t taken the responsibility for the actions of supposed Russian troops at the territory of sovereign Ukraine. While trying to mediate negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow the EU has also imposed a series of sanctions on Russia, including economic restrictions. These, amongst others, will limit access to EU capital markets for Russian state-owned financial institutions and curtail Russian access to sensitive technologies particularly in the oil sector of its economy. Other than that, international community remained neutral with minimal sanctions imposed on Russia until Malaysia Airlines Flight 17was shot down over eastern Ukraine on July 17 with 298 people on board, with 80 children among them. Russia denies that the plane was shot down by a Russian missile. Since two thirds of the killed passengers were Dutch, the EU is taking part in the investigation of the circumstances of the tragedy.
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On August 27th two columns of tanks were detected crossing the border of Ukraine. Since then, 36 people on average are killed every day in the conflict in the Eastern part of Ukraine, according to a report released by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Geneva3. The President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has called the EU and UN to provide military support in this conflict, but disregarding the dangerous escalation of the situation, EU and UN are keeping military neutrality, helping Ukraine with humanitarian aid, economic sanctions and lamenting the loss of life.
3. Clashes Economic situation in Ukraine After Yanukovych’s regime was overthrown in February 2014 Ukraine found itself on the fringe of default. Swift interference by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided Ukraine with $3.2 billion and EU financial reimbursable and nonreimbursable support amounting to €850 million in total are believed to bail out the country. Yet, the economic situation still deteriorates. The Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) has gone down 30% since January 2014; the inflation rate equals 12% and is expected to reach 19% by the end of the year 2014. Finally, the plummet of the GDP is expected at a 5% rate in 2014. Current military expenses of more than UAH 1.5 billion per month (approx. $120 million) and the necessity to restore damaged infrastructure in Donbass significantly burden a weak economy. International trade Before the signature of the Association Agreement and DCFTA, in April 2014 the EU introduced autonomous trade measures (ATM) with Ukraine. By their essence ATM’s are unilateral elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, allowing Ukrainian producers to export to the EU tariff-free effective immediately. This is intended to compensate Ukraine for the possible deterioration of trade relation with Russia. In the long-term perspective, by entering free trade area with the EU, Ukraine will be able save up to €487 million annually due to reduced import duties. Modernisation of standards will strengthen the competitiveness of Ukrainian products on the world market and subsequently the producers will benefit from increased revenues.
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http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/UkraineReport28August2014.pdf
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Nonetheless, according to the Prime Minister ArseniyYatseniuk, Ukraine faces the risk of halting trade relations with Russia in the near future. The stop of trade with its biggest partner may cost Ukraine $5 billion annually and will not be counterbalanced by trade with the EU right away. Loss of nearly a quarter of the trade volumes, lack of energy supplies and ever-increasing public expenditures will only deepen economic recession. Nuclear nations In official telephone conversations Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a statement that Russia is able to occupy Ukraine in 2 weeks4, threatening that Russian troops have enough capacity to reach European capitals in 2 days5. It is estimated that Russia currently has 695 ± 120 metric tons of weapons gradeequivalent highly enriched uranium (HEU) and approximately 128 ± 8 tons metric tons of military-use plutonium. Despite cooperative agreements in this area, Russia has hesitated to report the total quantity of its HEU and plutonium stocks6. The “continent of peace” includes 2 of 5 nuclear states under the Nuclear NonProliferation Treatyand 5 more NATO nuclear weapons sharing states. Russia’s aggression is met with ice-cold patience from the EU:“The EU is well aware that Russia has nuclear weapons. NATO has them too. Must we then destroy each other?” - Lech Walesa – Nobel Peace Prize laureate, ex-President of Poland 4. Existing Measures “European Agenda for Reforms” has been developed by the EU and Ukrainian government in the form of a roadmap, encompassing a wide-ranging set of consultation, technical and financial assistance from the EU. “Support Group” - On April 9 President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso, announced the creation of a special “Support Group”, which will assist Ukraine and in cooperation with the EU, coordinate its work with the Member States, other donors and international financial institutions.
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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/02/putin-russian-forces-could-conquer-ukraine-capitalkiev-fortnight 5 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11106195/Putin-privately-threatened-toinvade-Poland-Romania-and-the-Baltic-states.html 6 http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/russia/
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Association Agreement ratified: The deal was approved in the European Parliament by a margin of 535 to 127, with 35 abstentions. The Ukrainian parliament for its part approved the agreement unanimously, with all 355 deputies who took part in the vote deciding to vote in the affirmative. Due toRussian pressure, a compromise was made last week that will see the free trade section of the association agreement delayed until 2016. The Budapest Memorandum: is an agreement between Russia, United States and Great Britain which recognize the "independence and sovereignty" of Ukraine in exchange for it giving up its stockpile of nuclear weapons. At a press conference on 4th of March, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that this agreement is not relevant now, as Ukraine is no longer the same state it was in 1994. The ceasefire between Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian separatists: After Poroshenko declared a unilateral ceasefire which was honoured by the proRussian separatists in recent days, there seems to be some hope for a permanent end to the military clashes which have caused 425 casualties during the last couple of months. The ceasefire led to negotiations between Ukraine’s ex-President Kuchma, Russian ambassador to Ukraine and an envoy from the OSCE. With the separatists promising to release observers from OSCE who have been held hostage and Russia’s support on the negotiation process, further progress is expected. The OSCE mission in Ukraine: Currently OSCE is holding a mission in Ukraine in order to report up-to-date information from the heated areas, facilitate the negotiation process and inform the rest of the world with accurate information about the incidents in Ukraine. During OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Eastern Ukraine, 8 OSCE members were taken as hostages by pro-Russian rebels. Four of them were released on 26th of June, and four still stay as hostages. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister has called upon Russia side to “use its influence to ensure unconditional release of the four other OSCE SMM member still held by armed groups.” State Building Contract and the Macro Financial Assistance: The EU confirmed its commitment to support the economic stabilisation process in Ukraine through two recent significant Commission disbursements totalling 750 million € in the framework of the State Building Contract7 and the Macro Financial Assistance8 in accordance 7
The new “State Building Contract” programme, worth €355 million, and complemented by a 10 million programme aimed at support the civil society, will help the government of Ukraine to address shortterm economic stabilisation needs and implement governance reforms in order to promote good
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with the conditions set out in the Memorandum of Understanding. In this context, the Council looks forward to the high level donor coordination meeting on Ukraine to be held in Brussels on 8 July. The sale of Mistral Class Amphibious Assault Ships to Russia from France also has sparked debate amongst partners in the EU. Prior to the conflict, in 2010, the French Government promised the sale of two of its amphibious assault ships to the Russian Federation. However, since Russia’s involvement in the conflict the pressure has mounted on France to stop the sale. After the annexation of Crimea by Russia an immediate arms embargo has forestalled the sale of the warships indefinitely. Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, acknowledged that the loss of the contracts would damage the French economy. However, on September 3rd the French president announced that due to the recent involvement in Ukraine the two ships would not be delivered to Russia as a part of the economic sanctions on Russia. 5. Key Actors Petro Poroshenko - Ukraine’s current President: has expressed his pro-EU opinions and supports democracy, also believes that conflict with Russia and pro-Russian separatists can be solved through a negotiation process. EU's Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton: As the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the Vice-President of the Commission, Ashton chaired the Council of the European Union in its Foreign Affairs formation at Council meeting in Luxembourg, 23 June 20149 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE): OSCE is an independent organization with 57 member states which deal with various aspects of governance, more accountability and inclusive socio-economic development. It includes concrete steps towards building transparency and fighting against corruption, and will help to increase the government’s ability to respond to citizens’ demands and needs. 8 The new Macro Financial Assistance programme (also called MFA II) is designed to help Ukraine cover part of its urgent external financing needs in the context of the stabilisation and reform programme recently prepared by the Ukrainian authorities with the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The assistance is aimed at reducing the economy’s short-term balance of payments and fiscal vulnerabilities. 9 The EEAS is the European Union's diplomatic corps. It supports the EU foreign affairs chief (High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton) in conducting the common foreign and security policy.
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the term “security” including arms control, conflict prevention and resolution, democratization, elections, good governance and rule of law. As an active party during the ongoing Ukraine incidents it stands as an important partner for the EU on facilitating the path of reaching a consensus for Ukraine and Russia since the EU and OSCE pursue similar objectives and may reconcile. Russian Federation: is Ukraine's single largest export market, accounting for nearly a quarter of the country's international trade. Vladimir Putin – Russian President. The Russian nation’s leader who has confused patriotism with fascism. 6. Key Questions In what way could the EU express its position in the international conflict in order to preserve global peace? Which measures should be taken in order to prevent Russia from further military intervention into Ukraine? How can the European Union contribute more to Ukraine’s welfare in the long-term? Which actions should the EU implement to foster human rights protection in the violated region? How deep should the European integration of Ukraine grow with the view of the current military crisis? 7. Links for Further Research Ukrainian crisis timeline: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26248275 Ukraine crisis: an essential guide to everything that's happened so far: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/11/ukraine-russia-crimea-sanctions-useu-guide-explainer#sanctions Ukraine & the EU: Technical and Financial Co-operation (summary): 22
http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ukraine/eu_ukraine/tech_financial_cooperation/ind ex_en.htm EU sanctions against Russia (infographics): https://scontent-a-vie.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/t1.09/10565231_782070258504271_4021108892817470245_n.jpg Ukraine’s Pain is Europe’s Shame: What Can America Do? (opinion): http://cepa.org/content/ukraine%E2%80%99s-pain-europe%E2%80%99s-shamewhat-can-america-do EU-Ukraine Relations (Fact sheet): http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140514_02_en.pdf
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