AEMP EQUIPMENT MANAGEMENT LIVE:
HIGHLIGHTS AND SUMMARY PART ONE: CHRIS KUEHL BETTER THAN A BEST GUESS
Investopedia.com cautions that “reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase vulnerability to black swans by propagating risk and offering false security.” Kuehl explained that building economic forecasting models depends on accurate data, which is in short supply right now. “You can either have something fast or you can have something accurate,” he said. “You can’t have both. Right now we are getting data fast that needs to be corrected shortly thereafter.” Kuehl puts together a monthly credit managers index polling data gathered from what he calls ‘working economists’ — those who work for banks, Fortune 500 companies, investment firms — who he feels have a more pragmatic approach to their analysis. “Those managers tend to think out months in advance. They have told me they are seeing a lot CHRIS KUEHL of applications for future activity.” His credit manager index accurately has predicted expansions and retractions for more than 20 years. Kuehl also doesn’t base his analysis on consumer confidence numbers. “When you ask consumers ‘Are you confident?’ the consumers who woke up that morning with a
I keep a personal list that I call People Who Know What They Are Talking About (PWKWTATA). When I’m trying to figure something out or find an answer, these are the people who have impressed me with their smarts and generosity. I find PWKWTATAs at tradeshows, while doing interviews for articles, waiting in lines at airport snack counters. PWKWTATAs always give you more than their ‘best guess’. You know people like them, too, I’d guess. These are the people that leave you feeling confident they understand your questions and offer answers you can work with. AEMP is pleased to introduce you to some of these people for your own PWKWTATA list.
You can either have something fast or you can have something accurate. You can’t have both.
ADVANCING OR RETREATING: THE RESTART BEGINS AEMP’s leading expert speaker, Chris Kuehl, Ph.D, co-founder and managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence, did a masterful job presenting his economic analysis of the effect Covid-19 is having on our industry at the Equipment Triangle Industry Foresight and Advocacy session during June’s Equipment Management LIVE online event. Kuehl reminded participants that a black swan-type contagious event affecting the economy was widely believed to be highly probable, but so far the construction industry has fared better than other economic sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Journal of Equipment Management
