THOUGHT LEADERSHIP: TOM CRAIG
Covid-19 Vaccine – A Supply Chain Operations Plan Reflections on the complexities and intricacies of making the vaccine available to the masses
A
vaccine for the Coronavirus (Covid-19) is getting much attention. There are several firms in different countries working on it. Now there are articles on a macro view of the number of planes needed to transport and the required temperatures for a vaccine. These and other articles are interesting with their high-level view. However, these are not actionable. What is needed is an end-to-end (E2E) global supply chain operation plan to distribute the vaccine across the world. This is complex in what must be done, the geographic scope, product requirements, and the time pressure to do it. With a world population of 7.8 billion and possibly two doses per person, this is a huge undertaking to move it around the globe. Upfront, the availability of potential transportation and storage resources seems insufficient. That adds to the challenge and need for a plan—to be ahead of the game and to minimize as many problems—and there will be problems—ahead of time.
Initial outline
Presented here is a plan, rough perhaps, with many unknowns at this time. It is a working document that can be updated as more details/information arises as to product requirements, production location or locations; country demand; transportation, storage, and logistics resources; and other specifics evolve. Please note, the names of any transportation, warehouse, or logistics firms will not be mentioned. This is about the plan. Names will arise with the design and implementation.
42 NOVEMBER 2020
This is a very important point. This project defines VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. The standard approaches will not work. Change will be a dynamic constant to the point it could be considered organized chaos. Again, 7.8 billion people in 100+ countries, possibly 2 doses each, a potential vaccine that requires temperature protection at below freezing temperatures or face degradation. The VUCA project defines challenge. • Prepare a list of contacts at receiving countries that will coordinate both medical and supply chain. Collaboration is important for such an end-to-end undertaking. • Err on the side of caution with developing and implementing the plan. • Start with vaccine raw materials/ ingredients (active and inactive)—where sourced, production rates and quantities, how to ship, what is required for handling & storage, including space. Do not forget vials and / or ampoules, caps, labels, and packaging. • Understand production batch/lot sizes and production rate, including any as to language for labels. • Establish a plan that covers the entire timeline--from launch period through to expected production to satisfy worldwide needs. • Know the product distribution plan—ship how many to where and the sequencing/prioritization. That is a starting point. • Measure time from door-to-door for each origin-destination. This is critical for product temperature protection.
• Understand that transportation space and availability and cold chain storage space will influence shipment sizes. • Track vaccine draw-downs. This is important for shipment scheduling and to not have more product at a destination than there is temperature protection space. • Recognize destination and origindestination differences. This is not a onesize-fits-all approach. It must understand and adapt to the product and operating realities. This is important. • Assign countries to ship to if there are multiple production sites. • Collaborate and coordinate with destination supply chain people on transport and warehouse issues, space, local nuances, providers, and other issues. This should be ongoing. • Determine special needs as to cold chain and/or cool chain temperature for storage, transport, sanitary, chain of custody. Do this for each tier of transport and storage for vials unopened and opened. Chain of custody is important to manage the product requirements, operational events, and to prevent criminals from theft, and to restrict counterfeits. • Analyze space and service needs for air cargo and cold/cool chain storage. • Calculate for each destination as to shipments sizes, ready release dates, and the number of shipments. • Calculate storage needs at the origin, including production rate and build inventory timing and releases / drawdowns. • Calculate storage needs for each destination. • Focus on door-to-door speed. • Minimize the number of handlings,
