TREND MAP Helena Evison N0688998
CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2.. Trend Forecasting 3. Directional Fashion theory change 5. Reacting to Trends at the Right Time 7. Sustainability in the Fashion Industry 10. Sustainability and the Consumer 11. The Trend: Radical Transparency 13. Radical Transparency: On the Catwalk 15. The history of Radical transparency 16. How the trends translates onto online retailers 17. Shop Safari 21. Trend Survey 23. The styling shoot 27. The editorial 33. Conclusion
INTRODUCTION This report will examine trends looking at key drivers and how and why the pace and direction that trends are moving in is changing. This report will also look at the effect trends have on the fashion industry as well as social and environmental issues. Within the report, the trend of Radical transparency will be assessed to understand how trends evolve and adapt in different contexts. For instance, comparing how the trend is communicated from the catwalk to the high-street. Primary research provided current insights into consumer perception of ‘radical transparency’ in order to measure the success of the trend.
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TREND FORECASTING Trends are important because they reflect the desires, behaviours and preferences of the mass-consumer, as well as being a response to the Zeitgest. In relation to the fashion industry, trends have become synonymous with culture, consumer behaviours, lifestyle choices, opinions as well as appearance and style. Trend forecasting is a tool which examines past sales and market growth, identifies potential trends from data by using agencies such as WGSN and utilises the information to predict future trends. (Dube Wilson, S. n.d.) Trend forecasting is crucial for predicting the future of popular fashion trends each season and examining consumer behaviours and habits. (Horwitz, 2017). This information is fundamental for brands to ensure they are using the most effective marketing strategies that will promote growth. It also gives brands the ability to react to potential opportunities at the optimal time to maximise profit. (Horwitz, 2017)
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DIRECTIONAL FASHION CHANGE THEORY The ‘Directional Fashion Change’ theory enable buyers to understand the way in which markets are driven depending on their consumer segments as well as unearthing who started a trend, the direction it’s moving and how long it will remain popular. (Shaw and Koumbis, 2017) Prior to the internet, fashion trends appeared to follow the ‘trickle down’ theory. (Shaw and Koumbis, 2017) Traditionally a new trend would be introduced on the runway by high end designers and fashion houses, then identified and reported by forecasters, slowly filtering their way down to fashion publications. These trends are then adapted into high-street styles that would meet the demands of the massmarket. (Seto, 2017) The vast amount of information now available via the internet has eliminated the slow pace and altered the direction that trends now move in. The use of live streaming of fashion shows, Burberry being the first in 2010, (Amed, 2010) allows for anyone to adopt the newest trend immediately. Fast fashion brands, particularly, can design and introduce commercialised replicas of garments seen on the catwalk in a short space of time. The constant exposure to a high level of visual content of influencers, celebrities and street-style images via social media allows for inspiration to be taken from anyone, anywhere at any given time with no limit to how quickly a trend can be infiltrated and adopted. The revolution of the internet has shown to drive the ‘Trickle across theory’ as it allows everyone to be exposed to emerging trends simultaneously. (Shaw and Koumbis, 2017) This shift has also seen a more direct focus on the consumer as an individual, with desires being “brand and lifestyle driven” creating niche markets. (McKelvey and Munslow, 2009)
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REACTING TO TRENDS AT THE RIGHT TIME “The Diffusion of Innovation Curve”, identified by Everett Rogers, shows how brands need to keep track of trends when introduced in the “Innovators” and “Early adopters” phase in order to be ready to launch in the “Majority” stage of a trends life for the purpose of appealing to a mass market. (Rogers, 2003) In the fashion industry, consumers are purchasing faster than brands are producing, so it is vital for brands to engage effectively with consumers’ online demand signals. (Horwitz, 2017) This use of data allows a clear comprehension of how the consumer and the fashion industry are moving. Fashion brands need to recognise pertinent up-coming trends in categories that fashion is influenced by, for example emerging technology trends and calculate time-scales for the trend to enter the market that the brands operate. This enables brands to forecast effectively when to introduce products and services at the most profitable time. (Horwitz, 2017) Another consideration when looking at a trends life-cycle is how consumers are connecting with it. This can now be understood by identifying common online consumer searches relevant to the brand. For example, common searches such as, “how to wear double denim” or “what is augmented reality?”, would imply that the consumer is in the “education phase” of a trends life-cycle and therefore they are attempting to learn and understand the trend but not ready to fully adopt it. (Horwitz, 2017) When specific searches are identified, for instance ‘blazers, Topshop’ it is probable that they are ready to make a purchase of the trend. (Horwitz, 2017) However for brands to make the most profit they must be ready to launch before this point.
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SUSTAINABILITY IN THE FASHION INDUSTRY The demand from consumers for fast fashion retailers to regularly produce low-cost collections is significantly increasing due to many factors including: The constant exposure of emerging trends through social media, increased disposable income; a heightened fashion awareness and social and peer group pressure. (Shaw and Koumbis, 2017) However the demand for fast fashion is having a huge environmental impact. (Perry, 2018) Due to the increasing pressure to keep costs at a minimum and supply at a fast pace it means that corners are often cut within the supply chain, with fast-fashion brands often choosing to take an unsustainable approach. (Perry, 2018) The production of fast-fashion has consequences to the environment, including water pollution, the use of toxic chemicals and increasing levels of textile waste, as well as poor working conditions. This was particularly highlighted in the documentary ‘The True Cost’ which exposed how poorly treated and paid the people that produce clothes for large corporations like H&M, Primark and Zara are and how damaging the materials they sell can be to the environment and to our own skin. (The True Cost, 2015) Bright colours, prints and fabrics are created through the use of toxic chemicals. Textile dyeing is known to be one of the greatest polluters of clean water internationally. Polyester, the most commonly used fabric in fast fashion products, sheds microfibres when washed, adding to the rising amount of plastic in the oceans. (Perry, 2018) The Rhana Plaza disaster, which caused more than 1,100 deaths due to the building collapse, was instrumental in exposing the awful working conditions for the employees producing clothes for companies such as H&M, Primark and Zara. (Nittle, 2018)
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SUSTAINABILITY AND THE CONSUMER However, there has now been a shift in attitudes and the importance of the environment is becoming an ever increasing consideration to consumers when making purchases. A study by Unilever revealed that a third of consumers are now making purchase-decisions based on the impact of the environment and social implications. (Unilever, 2017) This has driven fast fashion brands, who were primarily exposed in recent documentaries like ‘The True Cost’ [2015], to respond to this demand by adopting a more circular and transparent approach to their supply chain. For example, H&M have run their ‘Close the Loop’ campaign since 2013, which encourages consumers to bring in bags of old clothes in exchange for a £5 off voucher. (H&M, 2018) The clothes are either reused and turned into other products, re-worn as second hand clothes or transformed into textile fibres, some of which are used to create their Conscious Collection. This is a collection made up of recycled materials and sustainable fabrics including TENCEL™, recycled polyester, organic linen, ECONYL® and recycled silver. (H&M, 2018) Primark have also launched their “first sustainable cotton products”, used for women’s nightwear, that utilises cotton bought straight from female farmers who are taking part in its “Sustainable Cotton Programme”, also launched in 2013. (Marie Claire, 2018) The Unilever study also highlighted how profitable it can be for brands to understand and react to consumer demands. It showed that over one in five stated that they would intentionally select brands that communicated in a more transparent manner about their sustainability attempts on packaging and within their marketing and promotions. (Unilever, 2017) As a result the study indicated that this constitutes a highly likely unexplored opportunity of “€966 billion out of a €2.5 trillion total market for sustainable goods” within the overall retail market. In the UK, the study indicated that 53% of consumers stated they feel better when purchasing sustainable products (Unilever, 2018), further highlighting the importance for brands to respond to these demands and follow a more sustainable approach.
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THE TREND: RADICAL TRANSPARENCY The trend identified is transparency, which can come in many forms whether that be a sheer chiffon blouse, a dress with mesh detailing or a transparent PVC raincoat. The focus is on the concept of transparency within clothing, what it signifies and how the trend is communicated on the catwalk in comparison to the high-street On the catwalk, many designers choose to present the sheer trend by exposing models’ nipples. It is highly likely a key driver of this trend was the feminist movement “Free the Nipple”, a campaign of which online awareness has been significantly increasing in the last few years. The hash-tag began in 2014 when American filmmaker, Lina Esco, used it to promote the film she produced and starred in, ‘Free The Nipple’ [2014]. The film is about a group of women in New York who decide to begin a revolution opposing the laws that ban female public nudity. (Tsjeng, 2015) Since 2014 the hash-tag has grown widespread support to un-ban females being topless in public, which is illegal in 37 states in the US. (Women’s Views on Views, 2015) The campaign gained momentum when it was noticed that images on Instagram that included female nipples were being removed by the site whilst male images were not. The campaign has been well supported by celebrities, such as Miley Cyrus, Cara Delevingne and Kendall Jenner (Roberts, 2018), heightening awareness and normalising exposure of the female body.
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ON THE CATWALK During the February fashion weeks of 2018 many designers adopted the trend of transparency and exposed models nipples through sheer clothing, showing to support the feminist campaign . During London Fashion week, Isa Arfen sent a model down the runway sporting a mustard gilet with nothing underneath. The Uniform fashion show included many garments of a sheer, translucent fabric, some garments even exposing the models entire body. At Milan Fashion Week, the Philosophy show, presented a model sporting a high neck ruffled dress with her breasts very blatantly appearing through. Designer, Krizia, exposed the nipple beneath a sheer bold red polo neck dress. At Alberta Ferretti a sheer high neck blouse was worn by one of his models. (Hodgkin, 2018) So many designers opting to follow this trend could possibly reflect their feminist stance and highlight their attempt to portray the Zeitgeist within their clothing. As the movement was supported so heavily by celebrities and the general public it could also be inferred that these designers were jumping on the bandwagon in order to attract attention and grow sales.
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1920’S
THE HISTORY OF RADICAL TRANSPARENCY 1930’S
Floor-length gowns were given a flirtatious edge with translucent, body-skimming chiffon.
In the 1920’s sheer stockings became very popular
Jane Birkin reinvented the sheer dress when she wore a see through LBD
Cher was a key driver fro the sheer trend when she rose to fame in the 1970’s
1960’s
1940’s
In 1942 Rita Hayworth danced with Fred Astaire in a sheer layered gown.
This dress worn by Kate Moss was another iconic moment for the sheer trend
1970’S and 80’S
1950’s
Austrey Hepnburn wears a dress with sheer panelling and embroidered mesh detailing
From the timeline it becomes evident that Rihanna’s barely there dress was not a completely new concept
1990’s
2010’s
However the trend is not brand new. In 1962 Jane Birken iconically wore a completely sheer dress exposing everything and was one of the first celebrities to do so, as did Cher in the 70’s, Kate Moss in the 90’s and Rihanna more recently. (Marie Claire, 2015)
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HOW THE TREND TRANSLATES ON FAST-FASHION ONLINE RETAILERS
ASOS Online the trend is found to be typically styled with a bra underneath, showing the idea of radical transparency and freeing the nipple still has a way to go to be adopted by the mass-consumer.
PRETTY LITTLE THING
MISSGUIDED
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SHOP SAFARI ZARA
URBAN OUTFITTERS
TOPSHOP
SKINNY DIP
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PRIMARK
RIVER ISLAND
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Part of the primary research included a shop safari which was carried out in Nottingham in order to identify which stores are stocking the transparent trend and how high-street stores have chosen to present it. The trend was identified in most high-street fashion stores in Nottingham. Although the trend was prominent it did not appear on the main fixtures or window displays which could suggest it is not one of the main trends on the high-street this season, nor the most popular amongst consumers. The main insight the shop safari provided was that the trend was presented through sheer clothing using chiffon fabrics, as well as the use of crochet and lace, presenting the trend in a more subtle way. In contrast the accessories found were mainly made of and clear PVC. Stores that tend to target millennials, like Skinny Dip and Primark, focussed the trend in regards to clubbing culture and therefore holographic transparent accessories were prominent. Topshop’s offering of a PVC belt implied that they are targeting a consumer who desires fashion forward products inspired by the catwalk, particularly as it resembles a belt designed by Maison Margiela (below).
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TRANSPARENCY TREND SURVEY In order to gauge an idea of the general consensus on the transparency trend and how the public would choose to adopt it, an Instagram poll was conducted, in which over 100 people participated. 42% stated they own a transparent clothing item, showing the trend has filtered down into the mass market, however 81% said they would prefer to wear a bra underneath rather than exposing nipple. This suggests that this sort of exposure for females is still in the “early adopters� phase of becoming a social norm. (Rogers, 2003) It also reflects how this trend is distinctly following the trickle down theory, which is how trends traditionally infiltrate into the market.
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It’s just not for me
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THE STYLING SHOOT PRE-PRODUCTION
The shoot was intended to be used for the brand COS’s online blog, to present how they would communicate the transparent trend with their target consumer in mind. They target the mid-market who are men and women age 25 - 45 years, they desire fashion forward yet minimalistic clothing. Therefore a minimalistic aesthetic was chosen to coincide with the brand essence of COS and enlighten their readers how the transparent trend can be styled in a way that would appeal to them. Within the high-street the trend is traditionally communicated through the concept of clubbing culture and targeted at millennial’s. In order to present a more high-end atmosphere it was decided that the mood should be calm and subdued.
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LOCATION The location of Bonington Atrium was chosen as it provided a white, bright backdrop with natural lighting from the skylight windows, with the purpose of conveying a clinical and minimalistic aesthetic. Transparent coloured chairs were chosen to construct a more eye-catching image; adding vibrancy that contrasts with the solemn mood of the clothing, models and backdrop.
PRO’S • Natural lighting • Don’t need to pre-book or pay for the space • Minimal • Spacious • Shadows from skylight window
CON’S • Public area - could be busy • Lighting can be temperamental as the sun changes • Only one location pictures could come across unvaried
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THE COS CONSUMER MEN AND WOMEN AGED 25-45 • She is a creative director for a small eco-friendly beauty brand. • She earns an annual income of £35,000 • She lives in London in a one bed apartment • She likes simple, high quality clothing paired with unique accessories • She enjoys trying new restaurants, yoga, buying her fruit and veg from the weekly farmers market just round the corner from her house and filling her apartment with fresh flowers. • He is a journalist who writes for The Guardian • He is also earns an annual income of £35,000 a year • He lives in an apartment in Brighton but commutes to London every day via train • He looks for clothing that is functional and long-lasting but also modern • He enjoys playing cricket on weekends, drinking in bars in Brighton and skiing once or twice every winter.
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TRANSPARENCY This season COS brings you the trend of transparency all grown up. Forget young millennials partying in mesh body-suits, it’s time to express real clarity by wearing transparent PVC for a clean, minimal aesthetic. A trend for both genders, our iconic see through raincoat can be worn by anyone, but will you dare to #freethenipple? Also perfect to contend with our traditionally wet British summers, whilst still being able to show off your favourite summer ensemble underneath.
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Or will you choose to sport the trend in a more understated manner using just our accessories? Try this seasons beautifully simple clear clutch, be bold, bare all your belongings and reveal your darkest secrets to the world... Head of women’s wear designer, Karin Gustafsson, speaks of the trend, “I’m always interested to explore how trends predominant on the catwalk can translate in COS’s iconic modern and functional aesthetic. The simplicity of the clear plastic works wonderfully with the muted colours of our other garments and really fits the mood of the brand.”
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CONCLUSION To conclude, it is evident that the trend of transparency has been adopted in two different ways by high-end designers and the high-street. The idea of radical transparency still being seen as socially unacceptable for the mass-consumer. This is likely to be caused by social factors such as the female nipple still being considered taboo. Instagram still will not allow the exposure of the female nipple and traditional media formats, such as magazines and TV, are still continuing to purposefully cover them using symbols. Online, high-street retailers, such as ASOS, styled sheer tops with bralets underneath unlike the catwalk where everything was exposed. However high-end designers have no qualms about exposing the female body and it is often considered innovative. Trends are often a reflection of shifting attitudes in society. If feminist campaigns, like ‘Free the Nipple’, were to achieve success and Instagram unbanned the exposure of female nipples it could evolve the trend of radical transparency and encourage the masses to embrace it.
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CITATIONS Amed, I. (2010). Getting Immersed in Burberry's 3D Live Stream. [online] Business of Fashion. Available at: https://www. businessoffashion.com/articles/digital-scorecard/digital-scorecard-burberry-3d-live-stream [Accessed 5 May 2018]. Dube Wilson, S. (n.d.). What is Trend Forecasting?. [online] Chron.com. Available at: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/ trend-forecasting-61347.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Free the Nipple. (2018). WHY FREE THE NIPPLE?. [online] Available at: http://freethenipple.com/why-free-the-nipple/ [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Hodgkin, E. (2018). Nipples 2018’s biggest trend: Models flash bare breasts on the catwalk at Fashion Week. [online] express.co.uk. Available at: https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/style/923699/fashion-week-london-milan-2018-nipplenipples [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Horwitz, Y. (2017). Trend Forecasting Is Becoming Less Art, More Science. [online] Business of Fashion. Available at: https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/opinion/op-ed-trend-forecasting-is-becoming-less-art-more-science [Accessed 4 May 2018]. H&M. (2018). Recycle Your Clothes. [online] Available at: https://about.hm.com/en/sustainability/get-involved/recycleyour-clothes.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. H&M. (2018). H&M CONSCIOUS EXCLUSIVE CONTINUES TO SHOW PROOF OF SUSTAINABLE FASHION INNOVATION. [online] Available at: https://about.hm.com/en/media/news/general-news-2018/h-m-conscious-exclusivecontinues-to-show-proof-of-sustainable-f.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. McKelvey, K. and Munslow, J. (2009). Fashion Forecasting. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, p.01. Marie Claire (2018). Ethical Fashion Brand You'll Love to wear. [online] marieclaire.co.uk. Available at: http://www. marieclaire.co.uk/news/fashion-news/best-ethical-fashion-brands-to-know-sustainable-fashion-84169 [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Marie Claire. (2015). From Marilyn to Kate: This is the history of the naked dress Read more at http://www.marieclaire. co.uk/fashion/the-history-of-the-naked-dress-235273#GcAemPMORQ4POhjA.99. [online] Available at: http://www. marieclaire.co.uk/fashion/the-history-of-the-naked-dress-235273 [Accessed 4 May 2015]. Nittle, N. (2018). What the Rana Plaza Disaster Changed About Worker Safety. [online] racked.com. Available at: https:// www.racked.com/2018/4/13/17230770/rana-plaza-collapse-anniversary-garment-workers-safety [Accessed 5 May 2018]. Perry, P. (2018). The Environmental Costs of Fast Fashion. [online] Independent. Available at: https://www.independent. co.uk/life-style/fashion/environment-costs-fast-fashion-pollution-waste-sustainability-a8139386.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Roberts, S. (2018). THE BREAST EXPLANATION What is Free The Nipple, what celebrities are involved, is it illegal to go naked in public, and what counts as graphic content on Facebook?. [online] The Sun. Available at: https://www.thesun. co.uk/fabulous/2778411/free-the-nipple-campaign-celebrity-supporters-laws-illegal-facebook-instagram/ [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Rogers, E. (2003). Diffusion of innovations. 4th ed. New York: Free Press. Seto, F. (2017). How Does Trend Forecasting Really Work?. [online] High Snobiety. Available at: https://www.highsnobiety. com/2017/04/05/trend-forecasting-how-to/ [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Shaw, D. and Koumbis, D. (2017). Fashion buying. 2nd ed. London: Bloomsbury, pp.36-37. The True Cost. (2015). [DVD] Directed by A. Morgan. United Kingodn: Life Is My Movie Entertainment. Tsjeng, Z. (2015). What the hell is #freethenipple, anyway?. [online] Dazed. Available at: http://www.dazeddigital.com/ artsandculture/article/24253/1/what-the-fuck-is-freethenipple-anyway [Accessed 4 May 2018].
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CITATIONS The True Cost. (2015). [DVD] Directed by A. Morgan. United Kingodn: Life Is My Movie Entertainment. Tsjeng, Z. (2015). What the hell is #freethenipple, anyway?. [online] Dazed. Available at: http://www.dazeddigital.com/ artsandculture/article/24253/1/what-the-fuck-is-freethenipple-anyway [Accessed 4 May 2018].
Unilever. (2017). Report shows a third of consumers prefer sustainable brands. [online] Available at: https://www.unilever.com/news/Press-releases/2017/report-shows-a-third-of-consumers-prefersustainable-brands.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Women's Views On Views. (2015). Free the Nipple?. [online] Available at: http://www. womensviewsonnews.org/2015/07/free-the-nipple/ [Accessed 4 May 2018].
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BIBLIOGRAPHY ssense. (2018). Maison Margiela - Transparent PVC Belt. [online] Available at: https://www.ssense.com/en-gb/women/product/maison-margiela/transparent-pvc-belt/2691808?gclid=CjwKCAjwlcXXBRBhEiwApfHGTf4JHrW-reFVVoa8Zl6MzJ5N39LnaVmqwt5Z9vQo6YZw035VAebNkhoCTIUQAvD_BwE [Accessed 16 May 2018]. Nittle, N. (2018). What the Rana Plaza Disaster Changed About Worker Safety. [online] racked.com. Available at: https://www.racked.com/2018/4/13/17230770/rana-plaza-collapse-anniversary-garment-workers-safety [Accessed 5 May 2018]. Perry, P. (2018). The Environmental Costs of Fast Fashion. [online] Independent. Available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/fashion/environment-costs-fast-fashion-pollution-waste-sustainability-a8139386.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Roberts, S. (2018). THE BREAST EXPLANATION What is Free The Nipple, what celebrities are involved, is it illegal to go naked in public, and what counts as graphic content on Facebook?. [online] The Sun. Available at: https://www. thesun.co.uk/fabulous/2778411/free-the-nipple-campaign-celebrity-supporters-laws-illegal-facebook-instagram/ [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Rogers, E. (2003). Diffusion of innovations. 4th ed. New York: Free Press. Seto, F. (2017). How Does Trend Forecasting Really Work?. [online] High Snobiety. Available at: https://www.highsnobiety.com/2017/04/05/trend-forecasting-how-to/ [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Shaw, D. and Koumbis, D. (2017). Fashion buying. 2nd ed. London: Bloomsbury, pp.36-37. The True Cost. (2015). [DVD] Directed by A. Morgan. United Kingodn: Life Is My Movie Entertainment. Tsjeng, Z. (2015). What the hell is #freethenipple, anyway?. [online] Dazed. Available at: http://www.dazeddigital.com/ artsandculture/article/24253/1/what-the-fuck-is-freethenipple-anyway [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Unilever. (2017). Report shows a third of consumers prefer sustainable brands. [online] Available at: https://www. unilever.com/news/Press-releases/2017/report-shows-a-third-of-consumers-prefer-sustainable-brands.html [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Women’s Views On Views. (2015). Free the Nipple?. [online] Available at: http://www.womensviewsonnews. org/2015/07/free-the-nipple/ [Accessed 4 May 2018]. Abdel Sater, G. (2018). Ten trends that will shape the fashion industry in 2018 - Ghida Abdel Sater. [online] An-Nahar. Available at: https://en.annahar.com/article/726841-ten-trends-that-will-shape-the-fashion-industry-in-2018 [Accessed 16 May 2018].
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I confirm that this work has gained ethical approval and that I have faithfully observed the terms of the approval in the conduct of this project. Date 25.05.2018 Signed………………………………………… Word count: 2451
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