PROGRAMME HIGHLIGHT – KRISTA PAWLEY
RECOGNISE BLINDSPOTS AND USE OUR SUPERPOWER Krista Pawley is the co-founder and Head of Impact at SingularityU Canada. She designs experiences and reputation strategies for leaders working at the intersection of innovation and impact to understand, prepare, and shape a more sustainable future.
An audience summary of Krista Pawley’s keynote “Futurestarters” We wish we could forecast the future and many of us listen to
b. Deceptive
experts and analysts that claim to be able to do so. However,
We do not even know what to look out for. For example,
time and time again, we see a difference between the future
in 2010 Blockbuster thought Walmart was their competition
we project and what is actually happening.
rather than Netflix. c. Disruptive
For example: the IEA Energy Agency released a forecast on the
What seems to be incremental, all of a sudden spikes up.
capacity of renewable energy by 2020. In 2002 they forecasted
The more people use something, the better it gets and more
it to be 200 GW. In 2006 they had to revise the forecast to 400
similar products emerge. For instance, after Netflix, more
GW, in 2008 to 600 GW and 2010 to 800 GW. In fact, they were
and more online streaming services emerged.
underestimating the capacity every single time. In 2018 the
d. Dematerialise
energy produced by renewable resources already hit 2500GW.
Things become smaller as they require less space and
The IEA made their forecast based on linear thinking when in
material. You can download a flashlight on your phone
actuality the increase was exponential .
rather than having to buy a physical one. e. Demonetised
When it comes to technology we consistently
Anything on the curve will eventually become abundant and
underestimate the future. Why is that?
practically free, such as digital photo storage or long distance calls. In science, the cost of DNA sequencing
1. The convergence of technology: a breakthrough in one technology can have a major impact on another technology,
dropped from $2.7 billion in 1997 to less than $100 in 2017. f. Democratised
such as AI has had on robotics. In addition, they also
In the 1980s cell phones were a luxury. Now people living
impact adjacent industries such as energy, space, learning,
below the poverty line have access to more computational
food and health.
power than that which put people on the Moon.
2. There are several blind spots along the exponential growth
It’s all down to mindset. Our blindspots are opportunities that
curve. According to Peter Diamandis there are six ‘D’s in the
have not yet revealed themselves and our superpowers are
exponential framework that need attention:
great capabilities that we can bring forward to change the future. Every day we are at the intersection of capability and
a. Digitised
opportunity and it is up to us to embrace a new mindset.
When things become digital, businesses change, such as newspapers going from paper to online. In the beginning
The six Ds in the exponential framework:
this transformation is hard to imagine. It does not work well
• Digitised
• Dematerialise
and is expensive which leads to underestimating its effects.
• Deceptive
• Demonetised
• Disruptive
• Democratised
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