A landscape of opportunity: The energy transition! ! Martin Hunt, Forum for the Future !
Introducing Forum for the Future
Forum for the Future is an independent non-profit with a 20 year track record in driving sustainable development. Our purpose is to accelerate the big shift to a sustainable future by transforming whole systems. We are 70 optimistic, smart and ambitious change agents, with offices in Singapore, New York, Mumbai and London, we work with hundreds of organisations and individuals who share our purpose. We look to: 1. Innovate solutions through building multi-stakeholder collaborations 2. Support partners to develop and implement transformational strategies 3. Empower leaders in system change
The 1.5⁰C Challenge The UN Paris Agreement commitment: To act to limit the temperature increase to 1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. The science is clear. We have less than a decade to transform the global economy.
We are working one-to-one with businesses and in collaboration with partners that share the urgency of this challenge and want to take the huge opportunities across energy, mobility, land use, whilst ensuring that every community feels the benefits.
The three goals of our work are: • shaping and implementing sets of solutions that radically decarbonise the energy system • identifying and driving the best ways to re-carbonise soil and agriculture • helping organisations to build up their climate resilience
Reshaping the narrative Role of DRE in India
Our 1.5⁰C Challenge projects
The Wise Minds of Energy
Exploring Regenerative Agriculture Climate resilient corporate pensions
The Future of Edible Fats and Oils
Sustainable Transport Solutions
‘4D’ Energy Utilities
Living Grid
Accelerating practical solutions
Rural Energy Masterplanning
Community Energy Asset Bank
Climate resilient & 1.5⁰C Strategies
Future proofed strategies
How the system is changing: the ‘4D’s Decentralisation Previously supplied by some 80 power stations, the UK now has over 900,000 generating facilities – from rooftop solar to offshore wind. Democratisation Businesses, individuals and communities across Britain increasingly setting up and managing their own energy assets Digitisation Digital connectivity and tools are enabling much greater control of energy use by consumers, transforming our relationship with energy. Decarbonisation Whilst the emphasis on decarbonisation alongside affordability and energy security has fluctuated, the UK’s legislative commitments have helped to sustain the transition .
Increasingly disruptive transition for incumbents Citibank has estimated that “in their current form utilities in developed economies could see the size of their market shrink by more than 50%�
Wise Minds report, 2017
Technological revolution‌ Today, this transition is now being driven as much by economics, technology and innovation as it is by government policy.
Global cumulative storage deployments
The global storage market will double six times by 2030, rising to a total of 125 gigawatts - a similar trajectory to the expansion that the solar industry went through from 2000 to 2015.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, November 2017
‌and the digitization of energy
The shift in renewables has been accompanied by an explosion in Internet of Things and Big Data applications catalysing a rapid growth in new business models, including demand side response, flexibility and aggregation markets.
Energy trading between disparate producers and consumers is also likely to become commonplace. For example, blockchain technology is enabling utilityscale trading and localised energy markets.
A rapidly changing landscape that will revolutionize the way we generate, use and share energy in our cities. And we are keen to play our part‌
Community energy Forum for the Future has long championed community energy in the UK – including the creation of the Community Energy Coalition in 2011. Whether wholly owned by communities or through partnership with others, community energy is playing an increasingly significant role in the transformation of our energy system, with new business models are emerging. But identifying willing owners and viable sites remains a frustrating process for many community energy groups - with little or no knowledge amongst most asset owners of the mutual benefits on offer.
Community Energy England, 2017
We want to create a trusted nationwide service which matches owners of viable land and buildings with community energy groups who have the ability to deliver renewable energy projects with them. From care homes to churches, from business parks to hospitals, from farms to shopping centres, from pumping stations to commercial offices – our vision is of a growing number of asset owners partnering with community groups, to create a completely new pipeline of projects.
“It is likely that we would favour community energy solutions more favourably. We might even apply a different ROI to other investments – not just about carbon, but also resilience and wider community benefits”." ! FTSE 100 Property Developer!
“A broker would be very useful. If we offered multiple viable assets like our extracare facilities, and the Asset Bank came back with several matches or options that would be good. It is very unlikely that we would chase down options ourselves.”" Large Housing Association!
“We have considered a similar kind of approach, done some mapping of assets. It aligns with our vision of increasing generation that is owned by community groups, and will reduce the resources required by us and them. So definitely keen.”" County Council !
Community energy asset bank • Seed funding from Friends Provident Foundation • Project Steering Group including representatives from the National Trust, Community Energy England, Savills and Marks & Spencer • Feasibility study completed confirming need, identifying asset owner demand, informing design • Prototype platform designed and ready to be piloted. Next steps • Looking to secure local partners to support two regional pilots over first half of 2018. • Initiate recruitment of asset owners and broader communications and outreach • Finalise user testing in the summer, refine and launch nationally later in the year. We’d love to hear from public and private sector organisations wanting to support and/ or participate in the project.
How living is our energy system? Current Waste genera*ng Pollu*ng Extrac*ve Fossil-‐fuel dependent Overly complicated Resistant to change Narrow set of goals
The best of nature Zero waste Regenera*ve Uses the current solar energy No long-‐term toxins Minimal complexity Adap*ng to constant change Op*mised to many goals
The Living Grid, inspired by nature A growing community of large energy users and smart technology providers building efficient, adaptive energy systems to make the grid more productive and ready for renewables. Showing what’s possible - telling the story – addressing barriers - enabling scale
Current community “Through our partnership with the Living Grid network, we’ll share our experience of this emerging demand response technology and encourage others to take up the opportunity too, to create a positive change in the energy system.”
Donna Hunt, Head of Sustainability, Aggregate Industries
Living Grid focus The core of the programme is about activating more energy users by telling the story. Building and promoting the vision Together we will build the vision of what a Living Grid would do for the UK, showcase examples and run the communications campaign to bring it to fruition Living Grid Lab In the Living Grid Lab, we’ll explore key areas of innovation and look to convene partners that lead to and promote innovative projects. Scaling up work streams Forum will work with the community to diagnose what is slowing down progress – policy, markets, knowledge gaps – and build programmes of work to change this
Growing the Living Grid community We want to talk to: • large public sector and commercial energy users • Providers of smart energy solutions • Enablers of the transition e.g. investors Through the narrative of The Living Grid, we can accelerate the growth of smart, adaptive, resilient, low carbon energy systems.
Martin Hunt m.hunt@forumforthefuture.org +44 7917 392 256
Impact first: As an NGO, we exist to catalyse change, and that’s our sole motivation. Positive and ambitious: We believe a sustainable future is possible - we’re tracking signals all the time - but we’ll only work Forum for thewho Future is anour appetite for bold leadership. with people share independent, global non-profit with a 20 year track record in driving change Partnership and collaboration: System change is only towards awhen sustainable future. possible ‘unusual suspects’ work together – we make that
happen.
www.forumforthefuture.org @forum4thefuture