BUILDING DEMOCRACIES IN THE LIGHT OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES: A CRITICAL AND DEMANDING CHALLENGE FOR THE ARAB WORLD 1
Senén Florensa. Executive President of the IEMed
1. This volume is the result of the work started with the international conference “Arab Transitions in Comparative Perspective: Building Democracies in the Light of International Experiences”, which was first jointly organised by the IEMed and the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Barcelona in November 2014. The articles prepared for this publication represent each author’s views, but in this introduction I have tried to present, along with my own appreciations, a sense of the overall shared reflections and the discussions at the conference, including the topics and areas not presented with a written article in this volume.
11
INTRODUCTION
The outbreak of the Arab uprisings in 2010 led
In addition, it must be emphasised that even the front-
most of us to think that we were witnessing the
runner countries are facing considerable challenges,
fourth or the late third wave of democratisation in
which could gravely threaten their political transitions.
the contemporary international experience. In fact,
The terrorist attacks in Tunisia and the increasing
only Tunisia and Morocco have engaged in a com-
number of Moroccan Jihadist fighters returning to
prehensive reform agenda, which would eventually
their country pose a serious threat to the internal
lead those countries towards democratic transfor-
security of both states. Moreover, Tunisia and to a
mation. Egypt, under the presidency of al-Sisi, has
certain extent also Morocco are confronting serious
returned to authoritarian rule, repressing not only
socioeconomic problems, such as high unemploy-
terrorists but also opposition forces. In Libya, the
ment among youths, weakening revenues from the
recently announced agreement between some war-
tourism sector and, consequently, decreasing living
ring factions gives a faint hope of stabilisation but
standards. These hardships may lead to the outbreak
the peace can only be achieved once all the parties
of new waves of social protest and radicalisation of
of conflict engage in talks. Meanwhile, the confronta-
some of the most underprivileged strata of society. In
tion continues with the serious threat of the creation
addition to internal challenges, external factors, such
of a terrorist DAESH-controlled area, which will in its
as some international and regional actors’ interest in
turn seriously endanger the security and stability of
maintaining the status quo, impede some states in the
neighbouring Tunisia, while in Syria, in its fifth year of
region from undertaking significant political reforms.
conflict, there are currently no clear prospects for a
Furthermore, the refugees fleeing the war in Syria
peaceful solution. The developments in this country
and Iraq are confronting Europe with a humanitarian
also pose a serious threat to its neighbours, Jordan
problem in the most dramatic way.
and Lebanon, who are facing a constantly growing
All these developments clearly contradict the transi-
number of refugees, endangering not only the secu-
tion paradigm, whose major assumption is that the
rity but also the economic and social equilibria of both
political opening leads to elections, followed by a
states. The appearance and astonishing results of the
period of consolidation, during which the institu-
devastating methods of DAESH has added a great deal of suffering and complication to the complex
tions are democratised and civil society strengthened.2 Considering the obstacles the Middle East
constellation of conflicts.
and North Africa countries are facing, it is difficult
2. Carothers, T. (2002). The End of the Transition Paradigm. Journal of Democracy, 13:1. Retrieved from http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/ articles/gratis/Carothers-13-1.pdf
12
INTRODUCTION
to foresee when and whether they will turn into
Morocco, on the other hand, represented a specific
democratic states.
case of government-led transition, given the partici-
Against this backdrop, the comparative analysis with
pation of royalty in the political process.
the countries that have successfully undergone dem-
As stated in the most remarkable contribution to this
ocratic transformations in the contemporary interna-
volume by Charles Powell, a constitutional drafting
tional experience might provide an invaluable insight
process can follow three main leads: the assembly
into the most important processes accompanying
can restore a previous constitution, improve the
democratic transitions, such as making new consti-
existing one or start from scratch. The Spanish case
tutions, electoral processes and political institutional
followed the third pattern. The end of the dictator-
changes, transitional justice, socioeconomic policies,
ship in Spain was encouraged by a change in the
political rivalries or politics of identity, as well as the
social and international circumstances. The coun-
role of external actors in shaping political develop-
try’s accelerating industrialisation of the 1960s led
ments. It may also help to identify and understand the
to a more solid economic environment and to a pro-
conditions and factors that enable the regime change
gressive growth of the middle class. The 1973 crisis
and successful democratisation. Accordingly, the main aim of the conference on “Arab
channelled massive social unrest and thus led to
Transitions in Comparative Perspective” was to exam-
tion, a negotiation between the main political players
ine the past experiences of transitions in order to
to achieve a new executive arrangement. The 1978
shed some light on the numerous complex issues
Spanish Constitution was drafted by parliamen-
that may arise during the transformation period in
tary members of all the main parties in a protracted
the Southern Mediterranean. The most recognised
but inclusive process. After extensive debate, the
experts on transition and on the Southern Mediterra-
monarchy was accepted and institutionalised in the
nean region analysed case studies taken from Spain,
wake of other western state models. The territorial
Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Balkans, South
cleavage was solved by the assertion of national
Africa and Indonesia in order to provide valuable
unity alongside the right to self-government and the
lessons for the transforming projects in the region.
recognition of the multinational character of Span-
3
what has been described as a transition via transac-
ish society, thereby heading to a formal ambiguity THE MAKING OF NEW CONSTITUTIONS:
(Spain as a nation including different nationalities).
OVERCOMING FAULT LINES
Parallel to the assurance of civil supremacy over
The constitutional drafting processes and their
military power, the separation of church and state
related negotiating process is obviously one of the
was granted, even though the church maintained a
first factors of success or defeat. Case studies taken
prominent role in some fields, such as education.
both from European history and the Arab region
Yet from an institutional point of view, the desire to
in recent times require a careful and comparative
avoid past errors, according to Charles Powell, led
analysis, especially in regard to the role of religion
the constituent assembly to overcompensate for a
in political transitions. Egypt’s and Tunisia’s constitu-
possible tendency towards multipartitism by estab-
tional procedures deserve special attention for their
lishing an excessively rigid constitution that resulted
diverse accomplishments and, in particular, given the
in a majoritarian system, with a strong executive and
role of various agents in their political realignment.
an overall weak parliament.
3. See as a canonical presentation Linz, J. & Stepan, A. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
13
INTRODUCTION
In the case of North African countries, more or less
the constitution drafting process particular attention
democratic transitions followed the Arab revolutions.
was paid to social rights and women’s empower-
Nonetheless, their respective constitutional drafting
ment. The establishment of a general court was a
processes have been at the centre of the strug-
crucial step to protect the newly obtained demo-
gle for power among representatives of the main
cratic liberties and other constitutional provisions.
political stakeholders. In Morocco, the king took
Tunisia is a free sovereign state that has Islam as
the initiative of revising the existing constitution,
a religion and Arabic as a language, affirming free-
thus not letting his power be affected by internal
dom of religion and beliefs for all of its citizens. The
turmoil. Responding to parliamentary will, according
mobilisation of the civil society institutions (Human
to Idriss Lakrini’s contribution in this volume, the first
Rights League, Bar Association, the CGTT union’s
attempts to modernise the text focused on human
confederation and the UTICA employers’ associa-
rights and the reinforcement of the government and
tion) was absolutely crucial, winning them the Nobel
judiciary power, although the king still kept essential
Peace Prize.
powers on legislation and foreign policy. In 2011,
In Egypt, the first constitutional draft of 2011, which
the revisions accelerated with the urge to respond to
established that a constituent assembly would be
the demands of Moroccan society. The protests and
elected by parliament, was replaced by a new one
the 20th February Movement led to a horizontal con-
whose amendment was put forward by a committee
stitutional debate, where diverse social requirements
of 50 members elected by the interim president with
were discussed in a multiparty environment. Many
opaque standards. The text, in secrecy and approved
political stakeholders contributed to the reform of
without a referendum, enshrines extensive autonomy
the basic law, generating a conciliating constitution.
for military and judiciary powers. The first Egyptian
Still, the implementation of this constitution is being
constitution and the Tunisian one were innovative, in
discussed; as stated by Lakrini, there is a rising defi-
the sense that for the first time Islamic parties were
cit on accountability and guaranty issues that have to be further defined and amended.4 For example,
allowed and participated in the constitutional pro-
the right to strike or the recognition of the Amazigh
maintaining moderate behaviour. These processes
language are not yet clearly stated.
initially emerged from a wide national consensus,
Tunisia followed a very democratic transition process
but Tunisia’s successful constitutional process was
by electing a constitutional assembly and organising
the product of negotiation and of an inclusive exer-
democratic elections.5 The elections to the constitu-
cise, while Egypt went through social discontent-
tional assembly did not allow any party to have the
ment. Egypt’s ruling elite failed to build a political
majority. The constitution is the result of negotiation
agreement between the most significant contending
and compromise: the imposition of a parliamentary
parties and institutions, including the military, and pre-
regime warrants continuity in the future. The effect
ferred to protect its interests rather than build a solid
is a republican democratic participatory form of gov-
social contract. The final result was thus the return
ernment, with a mixed elective system that sets forth
to authoritarianism.
the supremacy of parliament. The legislative power
The role of religion in politics in the case of the Pol-
allows people to elect their representatives and the
ish transition after the fall of the Soviet regime is the
assembly has the power to dismiss the president. In
object of Patricja Sasnal’s interesting contribution to
cess, thus recognising the supremacy of the law and
4. See for Morocco the chapter of Idriss Lakrini and Larbi Jaidi in this volume. 5. Ounaïes, A. (2015). Building a Democratic State: The Case of Tunisia. IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2015. Barcelona: IEMed.
INTRODUCTION
14
this volume. Religion occupied a particular place in
would lead to political openness, there are huge dis-
the state’s politics. The Polish Constitution was eight
parities between different Arab countries. In general,
years in the making, from 1989 to 1997, but it depicts
the energy-rich countries maintain (and pay for) the
the consensus between the church, the state and all
accumulated inefficiencies in their economic systems.
the parties involved. The Catholic Church helped the
With regard to social transition, it is influenced by
transition, guaranteeing an anti-communist presence
such factors as transformation in attitudes, values
at the roundtables, but it was also one of its bigger
and aspirations of the people, resulting from educa-
beneficiaries, as it regained its properties once taken
tion, increased contact with the outside world and
by the communists. Indeed, the role of the church
dissatisfaction with the existing political system. As
after 1989 has been a controversial and divisive
for the developments on the political transition level,
issue. Sermons still have a strong political hold in
they are currently shaped by three main drivers of
influencing how people vote, even if the evolution of
change, besides a given level of education, which is
the socioeconomic conditions and the demographic
capable of evolving only in the long run. The first one
rate headed towards a more secularised society.
is youth and their demands for better opportunities.
Religious societies such as Poland prove they can
The second one is the role of Arab women, whose
assume democratic governance, although the issue
position in society and family as well as economic
of secularisation cannot be evaluated by looking
role in the system bear an enormous transformative
at European models; a correspondence between
capacity. The last driver of change is now information
Christianity and Islam is questionable due to the fact
and communication technologies, which enable wider
that Islam is not an institutionalised religion. It may
access to the independent sources of information.
be argued that Islam is in some ways institutionalised
Despite those threefold transitions, the Arab world
by recognised religious authorities, as is the case
still faces some major challenges, such as the battle
of the ayatollahs in Iran and other spiritual guides.
for pluralism and the capacity to integrate different
What is clear in any event is that the Arab world’s
visions of the model of society. Therefore, democracy
religious diversity, especially in the Middle East, calls
should not be conceived only as a goal, but also as
for a secular state to ensure equal rights for every
a method to solve problems and respond to growing
religion. Certainly, religious minorities in Islam cannot be granted their full rights without a secularised
expectations.6 To analyse the elite choices of alliance-building and
institutionalisation.
its impact on the transitional path in particular, in the case of Libya and Egypt, the distinction has to be
PARTY POLITICS, ELECTORAL PROCESSES
made between two types of elites: the state elite, with
AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
vested interests in the traditional political and social
Currently, three different transitions occur in the
order established by the old regime, and the dissident
region: political, social and economic. Although the
elite representatives that try to establish themselves in
speed of their progression is different, they are all
the new regime.7 Both elites are facing internal prob-
essential for the consolidation of democracy. As far
lems, such as maintaining the unity and coherence of
as the economic transition is concerned, despite
their factions, while trying to intensify the problems
previous assumptions that economic liberalisation
of their opponents, leading to change in alliances
6. Amirah Fernández, H. (2015). The Multiple Crises in the Middle East. Quaderns de la Mediterrània. Barcelona: IEMed. 7. See the contribution by Marwa Fikry Abdel Samei in this volume as well as Fedtke, J. (2014). Comparative Analysis between the Constitutional Processes in Egypt and Tunisia – Lessons Learnt – Overview of the Constitutional Situation in Libya. Brussels: European Parliament.
15
INTRODUCTION
and tensions between civil society and state. Both
as a recipe for the transformations in the Southern
in Libya and Egypt, state and dissident elites tried to
Mediterranean region, it could shed some light on cur-
solve their own dilemmas and broaden their alliances,
rent developments. Firstly, that security sector reform
willing to establish their own social and political order.
(SSR) cannot be achieved without a general transition
Nevertheless, the dissolution of umbrella coalitions
process, which may seem like a vicious circle. The
shortly after the overthrow of regimes and the con-
existence of the monarchy in Spain enabled this prob-
tinuously changing alliances between elites undermined the democratic transition and led to political
lem to be avoided. As Narcís Serra has explained,8 the king’s support for reform was a crucial factor for
instability. Therefore, despite the different trajectories
the military’s compliance with and acceptance of the
of their revolutions, both countries failed to fulfil the
reform process. The SSR was implemented in the
promises of transitions and are currently facing the
cycle of two sub-periods of the Spanish transition
problems of social division and the polarisation of civil
to democracy. First, the transition period’s objective
society, which lead to either a return to the authoritar-
was to prevent the police and the armed forces from
ian regime or to a serious security deficit, with cata-
intervening in political decision-making in the country.
strophic results in the case of Libya.
Second, the consolidation period focused on ensuring
As for the development of electoral processes, it has
and strengthening the government’s role in taking
been observed that Tunisia lacks a historical tradi-
decisions regarding security and defence matters. In
tion of transparency in its elections. The elections
order to be successful, the security sector reform has
that took place in Tunisia shortly after the uprising
to be managed from inside, promoting some key mili-
were judged improper, as they lacked transparency
tary figures to cooperate with the task, and needs the
and integrity and their main aim was only to remove
broad support of civil society and parliament. In addi-
the settled power. On the other hand, the following
tion, as the reform of the security sector is complex
elections were assessed as exemplary and inclusive.
and long, there must be a consensus on its main lines.
They were composed of three phases. The first phase
SSR should be a coherent process, transforming not
consisted of establishment of electoral administra-
only the military but also the intelligence services, the
tion, registration of votes and provision of a final list
policy and the military justice. The reform should not
of candidates to the citizens. Secondly, the proper
only address laws and institutions but also transform
voting took place without violence or irregularities.
the professional profile, mentality and types of mission
The last phase of elections included the counting
of the military. The acceptance by the armed forces of
and processing of the results and the recognition
their role of defending the country and not to control it
and acceptance by the losing party of its failure. Over-
is, according to Narcís Serra, one of the main authors
all, the success of the electoral process does not
of the SSR in Spain as Minister of Defence and then
depend only on a legal process but also on the ena-
Vice-President of the Government, a sine qua non of
bling environment and electoral culture. At the same
stable and successful reform.
time, an election in itself does not always guarantee democracy and several other factors are necessary
ACCOUNTING FOR PAST INJUSTICES
to achieve a successful transition.
AND PROMOTING HUMAN RIGHTS
Finally, the change in civil-military relations may be best
One of the major and most sensitive issues in
exemplified with the case study of Spain. Although the
democratic transitions in post-conflict situations is
Spanish transition process should not be understood
accounting for past crimes and abuses. There are dif-
8. Serra, N. (2010). The Military Transition. Democratic Reform of the Armed Forces. Cambridge University Press.
INTRODUCTION
16
ferent ways in which post-authoritarian governments
have been applied, such as reparation measures for
deal with transitional justice. To cite a few examples,
property recovery or disability benefits. Nevertheless,
the Spanish transition, compared with some Latin
it has been stated that the reconciliation process
America experiences, may represent a case of avoid-
in Bosnia and Herzegovina largely failed. The main
ing confrontation and accepting the past. Bosnia
obstacle to the peaceful transition is the term “rec-
and Herzegovina represented in its turn the case
onciliation” itself, implying that those who need to be
where striving for peace based on interethnic framing
reconciled are ethnic communities. Therefore, it was
may actually jeopardise reconciliation and success-
based on a very problematic framing of reconciliation
ful transition for a long period. The Libyan isolation
and so confronted nationalistic narratives. Thus, the
law and its influence on the current situation in the
Dayton Agreement, rather than being a big success,
country is a recent case of addressing transitional
provided for power sharing among ethnic groups and
justice. Finally, as we will see, the Kurdish transitions
created far from inclusive politics. In fact, political
represent an example of non-Arab transition in the
participation in Bosnia depends on ethnic identity.
Arab world.
The Dayton Agreement also undermined the process
In Spain, though, the traumatic memory of the Span-
of genuine justice and accountability, as the main
ish Civil War and the will to avoid its repetition at any
negotiators were the key figures of the old regimes.
price, as explained in the contribution by Paloma
Therefore, it was observed that successful transition
Aguilar and Clara Ramírez-Barat, led to the decision
in Bosnia and Herzegovina could finally be achieved
to leave the past behind. Instead of public reflection
only by abandoning the ethnic framing and establish-
about the responsibilities for the 1936-1939 con-
ing a bottom-up type of politics. In addition, as the
flict and the immediate post-war atrocities, the path
conflict was regional and transnational, the national
towards reconciliation was based on the oblivion of
framing of transitional justice measures should be
the war crimes issue and adoption of the Amnesty
abandoned. Instead, the path towards reconciliation
Law in 1977. A post-transitional justice phase began
should be based on regional inclusive consultations
much later in 2000 and culminated in 2007, with the
and recognition of past human rights violations.
passing of the Law of Historical Memory. Conse-
In Libya, the transitional justice process took place
quently, victims’ offices were created, some remaining
in unfavourable circumstances, as the nation and
Franco symbols removed, the access to the military,
state needed to be rebuilt. After the fall of the regime,
judicial and general administration archives regulated
in July 2012 the General National Congress was
and a map of common graves created. However,
elected. The outcome of the election led to the radi-
following the People’s Party (PP) electoral victory
cal reconfiguration of the Libyan political map for
in 2011, most of these measures have been either
the benefit of local forces and non-state actors. The
abandoned or cancelled.
newly-elected parliament, under the pressure of revo-
In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, after the
lutionary militias, passed the political exclusion law,
signing of the Dayton Agreement in 1995 significant
aiming to exclude the officials from the Gaddafi era
transitional justice initiatives were established in the
from holding public office in the government, civil
region, the most important of which was the Interna-
service, police, the judiciary or banking for a period of
tional Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.9 In addition, a variety of transitional justice measures
10 years. The law, compared to the “debaasification law” in Iraq, led to the exclusion of large sections of
9. Rangelov, I. (2016, May 4). Dayton, 20 Years Later: Reconciliation in the Former Yugoslavia? Esglobal. See as well Rangelov, I. (2015). Nationalism and the Rule of Law. Lessons from the Balkans and Beyond. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
17
INTRODUCTION
Libyan society and even some of the political leaders,
and even Iran. The ISIS threat has also significantly
who had played a key role since the outbreak of the
strengthened the position of the PKK, with increas-
Libyan uprising in February 2011. Therefore, it has
ing support for its armed groups outside Turkey.
jeopardised the national reconciliation and institution-
Overall, the growing instability in the region has
alised historical divisions inside Libyan society, thus
revived the Kurdish desire for autonomy. Neverthe-
contributing to the current armed conflict and gradu-
less, despite some points of cooperation, political
ally transforming Libya into a failed state. In order to
rivalries among the Kurds will most probably remain
prevent the country from falling into total civil war, the
rather unchanged in the long term.
General National Congress should abolish the political isolation law and adopt a more inclusive policy of
ADDRESSING SOCIOECONOMIC
national reconciliation. However, this process could
INEQUALITIES DURING THE TRANSITIONAL
be threatened by foreign conservative forces, such
PERIOD. THE SPANISH PARADIGM
as Saudi Arabia or Egypt, which are interested in a
Socioeconomic inclusion in the Arab countries is
military security approach rather than the transitional
a necessary requirement to achieve a successful
political one. Moreover, contrary to the transitional jus-
political transition. Unquestionably, the aggravation
tice processes in Latin America and Eastern Europe,
of social inequalities in the region is one of the main
those in the Middle East and North Africa region lack
causes of popular mobilisations, which has become
consensus within society on the type of new political
an unconventional way of doing politics (“street
contract to be put in place.
politics”). The express social demands refer mainly
As for the Kurdish case, in Iraq, after the fall of
to basic needs, but they also reveal social classes’
Saddam Hussein, the constitutionally established
frustrations and territorial inequalities, reflecting the
federalism allowed for the creation of a Kurdish
unjust distribution of power and the lack of policy
regional government in the north. However, the Iraqi
measures to establish an inclusive economic growth
Kurdistan autonomy is causing tensions, due to
model. The Arab Spring has shaken the Southern
the exclusionary constitutional drafting process,
Mediterranean region, which previously experienced
which included Shia Islamists and Kurdish nation-
some positive macroeconomic results, especially in
alists, with symbolic Sunni participation. In Syria,
terms of economic growth but, at the same time, was
Kurds have been operating in the context of partial
marked by the abandonment of many categories of
transition, mainly in Kurdish majority areas, where
population, such as youth, women or rural inhabit-
the regime has largely lost control. The Kurdish
ants. It is therefore interesting to examine what can
struggle for autonomy has been conducted under
be done now, in the light of other experiences, such
two different models of Kurdish nationalism. The
as the Spanish and the South African ones, to face
first one, built around economic integration with
socioeconomic inequalities.
powerful nations such as Turkey, is represented by
The successful Spanish transition may serve again
Massoud Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan
as a case study, in particular pertinent today in order
Region. The second one, represented by Abdullah
to understand how coherent socioeconomic poli-
Öcalan, head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK),
cies may contribute to the successful completion of
is based on leftist political ideology and focuses on
transition. The Spanish experience reveals that the
the struggle for Kurdish civil rights. The rise of ISIS
socioeconomic negotiation and pact in the search
as a common enemy has reduced the intra-Kurdish
for equity and prosperity represent a fundamental
divisions. Kobani, perceived as a radical defender
step towards the achievement of a comprehensive
of Kurdish resistance, has somehow fostered the
transition. In other words, in order to be effective,
desire for unity among Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Turkey
political and institutional transformations need to be
INTRODUCTION
18
combined with negotiated socioeconomic reforms.
economic expansion, Spain experienced a period of
Along with a commonly shared long-term perspec-
intense growth and social and economic transforma-
tive for the future of the country, the effective socio-
tion. Notably, the 1959 Stabilisation Plan offered the
economic reforms are the necessary prerequisites
basis for further evolution. During that period from
to generate the consensus, the cornerstone of any
1961 to 1973, the average annual growth of Spain
successful democratic transition.
was around 6.5% to 7%. Despite a short but difficult
However, in order to understand the transition from
initial period of adjustment in 1960, the country was
an authoritarian system to democracy, as in other
able to meet modest but real and accelerated pros-
cases, the Spanish transition should be analysed
perity that opened new possibilities for consumption
from a historical perspective. The Spanish Civil War
and progress to the middle and working classes for
(1936-1939) and the decade after were one of the darkest moments in Spanish history, politically, from
the first time.10 Taking advantage of the overall positive economic
a human point of view, and economically. During the
cycle of the West, internal and international migration
First World War, as Spain had not been involved and
– with the subsequent remittances from abroad –
did not support any particular side in the conflict, the
along with tourism and foreign investment, Spain
country had the chance to take important economic
managed to achieve significant socioeconomic goals
advantages from the war as a privileged supplier of
and finance its industrialisation, despite incurring a
industrial as well as raw materials in the different
permanent deficit in its trade balance. This situation
tight markets of both contending parties. In complete
clearly recalls the Tunisian case thirty years later,
contrast, during the Second World War the impover-
during my mission there as Spanish ambassador in
ished Spain was not so fortunate. The country had
the Ben Ali years. In fact, in both Spain and Tunisia,
been greatly affected by its own civil conflict, which
a favourable international economic environment,
almost completely destroyed the Spanish economic
migration and tourism were key factors for socioeco-
sectors.
nomic development in times of major internal politi-
The possibility of engaging in a democratic transition
cal stagnation. The Spanish experience also recalls
at the end of the Second World War, as the republican
to a lesser extent the present situation in Morocco,
opposition in exile had hoped, vanished immediately.
where 9% of total GNP is generated by remittances
In the aftermath of the war, Spain, as a former almost-
of Moroccans working abroad.
ally of the axis powers under the rule of General
In the early 1970s, the political regime in Spain
Franco, was ostracised. However, in the new bipolar
started to weaken. This moment coincided with the
world, Franco, as a clear anti-communist ruler, started
first oil crisis in 1973. Considering the fragile stability
to be internationally accepted by the West for the
of the regime, the government did not pass on the
sake of the Cold War. The recognition of Franco’s
impact of the crisis of the oil prices to the public but
regime and the end of the political isolation of Spain
undertook some compensatory measures. These
was officially confirmed in 1953, when Spain and the
policies, or rather the lack of appropriate correcting
United States signed the Pact of Madrid, providing
measures, led to cumulative dysfunctionality and
for the military and political content of the relations
imbalances in the Spanish economy.
between the two countries. Although no significant
After Franco’s death on 20th November 1975, the
political changes occurred, between the 1950s and
accession of Juan Carlos as king opened a new era.
the 1960s, with the wave of the overall European
In a few months, Adolfo Suárez was appointed the
10. Florensa, S., et al. (1998). La España del desarrollo. Años del boom económico. Historia Universal. Siglo XX. Historia 16.
19
INTRODUCTION
new President of the Government. After decades of
should be recognised. The effort to admit both new
authoritarian regime, general elections were needed.
and old leaders, representatives and experts gener-
However, in order to make them possible, it was first
ated the necessary consensus that was to be the
essential to adopt a series of crucial measures to
basis of economic prosperity, social development and
change the political landscape, such as a new elec-
the fulfilment of exhaustive democratic dialogue. In
toral law, legalisation of all political parties, including
practice, the Pacts and all the measures that followed
the communist party, the preparation and approval
liberalised the markets and included the reform of a
of a new constitution and the reorganisation and
great number of fundamental social and economic
subordination of the military to civil power. The adop-
structures, from the fiscal and tax systems and insti-
tion of those measures enabled Spain to go further
tutions to the health or pension systems.
down the path of political transition. While the new
In 1979, the country was greatly affected by the
constitution (finally adopted in 1978) was being
second oil crisis and it had to deal with a wave of
negotiated in the newly-elected parliament, Suárez
imported inflation. These events led to a period of
formed a government and was finally able to tackle
political turmoil, the victory of the socialist party in the
the economic problems to correct the imbalances,
new general elections and the appointment in 1982
which otherwise could have endangered the overall
of Felipe González as the Spain’s first socialist prime
democratic transition.
minister in the new democracy. The subsequent dec-
In 1978, after a period of negotiation between
ade of socioeconomic prosperity is still remembered
the government, political parties, trade unions and
by Spanish socialists as the “prodigious decade”. This
entrepreneurs’ associations, they agreed on all the
period was indeed undeniably marked by some major
measures included in the Moncloa Pacts. On the
events, such as the Olympic Games in Barcelona and
political level, the agreed-upon reforms included
the Seville Expo ‘92. The “prodigious decade” had an
the freedom of expression and freedom of the
extended life after a short recession in 1993-94 and
press, with the vanishing of censorship, the reform
finally ended in 2007, when Spain was heavily hit by
of the judiciary, the rights of assembly and of politi-
the international financial and economic crisis.
cal association, and the abolition of the structure
In conclusion, the Spanish transition offers particu-
of the National Movement, a kind of single official
larly interesting ground for reflection. Because of
party. On the economic front, a devaluation of the
a number of similarities with the Arab transitions,
peseta was set in order to contain inflation, the
it can serve as an iconic case study to overcome
monetary policy was tightened, and a fiscal reform
the socioeconomic inequalities as one of the main
was adopted to increase state revenues. On the
causes of the recent popular uprisings in the South-
socioeconomic level, the trade unions accepted
ern Mediterranean countries. The Spanish experience
that, in order to correct inflation, wages would
not only shows the great link between inequalities,
be indexed on the basis of the limited increase
economic difficulties and popular unrest but it also
in prices forecast for the following year, and not
presents some strategies to re-establish prosper-
automatically, according to the higher inflation of
ity and successfully fulfil the democratic transition.
the previous year.
However, one has to consider that the factors, which
The Moncloa Pacts had positive and extended effects
may have led to the transformation in one country,
both at the political and the economic and social level
might not prove sufficient in another. Therefore, one-
and paved the way for further political and institutional
size-fits-all solutions should not be extracted from
reforms. Besides the broad success of the Pacts, the
the European cases but rather the specificities of the
constructive effort to include all the relevant politi-
Arab experience must be understood, and more so in
cal, social and economic actors in the negotiations
the extremely difficult conditions in the Middle East.
INTRODUCTION
20
THE ROLE OF OLD NEW ELITES.
society representatives will be decisive in designing
SOME TRANSITIONAL CASES
an inclusive socioeconomic model and determining
It is interesting to note the relevance of leadership
a strong and legitimate leadership.
in designing new socioeconomic politics in times of
On the other hand, the inclusiveness of the socio-
transition. The South African experience, as explained
economic policies in the region has failed in part
in the authoritative contribution by Caryn Abrahams
because they have been conceived to preserve the
in this volume, illustrates the role of a major party, the
macroeconomic equilibria, responding to the neolib-
African National Congress, which literally made the
eral standards. The states have concluded trade and
transition. This leadership, incarnated by Nelson
commercial agreements without thinking enough
Mandela in the 1990s, has been gradually eroded
about microeconomic reforms, such as empower-
since then, and the country currently faces more dif-
ment of small business owners, women or young
ficulties to maintain a political project able to include
entrepreneurs, and sectorial strategies, for example
all sides of the social spectrum. In comparison, no dominant political actor has guided transitions in the
development of sustainable energy or sustainable agriculture and land recovery.12 This, however, would
Arab countries because of and extremely fragmented
need to involve new incentives, fiscal policies and
and ideologically polarised political arena.
law reforms. The 2011 Moroccan Constitution or the
In fact, the leadership derives from traditional and
2014 Tunisian Constitution point in that direction, but
“apolitical” authorities, such as the king in Morocco,
they still have to be implemented in practice.
11
who gave impetus to restart the dialogue between stakeholders and to revive socioeconomic initiatives,
POLITICAL RIVALRIES AND IDENTITY
or from former elites, who participated in the moderni-
POLITICS IN THE TRANSITION
sation of the state before the political transition. The
TO DEMOCRACY
Spanish transition is a clear example of the latter: the
Ethnic, religious, social and identity divisions within
technocrats, who resolved part of the socioeconomic
societies in post-revolutionary periods, if not ade-
problems in 1977 and participated in the negotia-
quately addressed, may endanger the successful
tions of the Moncloa Pacts, had previously worked
transformation to democracy and even lead to the
on economic planning under Franco’s rule. However,
re-establishment of an authoritarian regime. Socio-
the concern remains whether the former technocratic
economic inequalities and exclusion in particular are
elites involved in designing the new politics can be
the main immediate reasons behind violence during
ideologically non-biased. The example is the return of
the democratisation period. In Geoffrey Macdonald’s
the economic elites in Tunisia formerly linked to Ben
contribution, Indonesia is depicted as a country where
Ali, whose loyalty to the new democratic principles
religious differences were successfully overcome
may be questioned by the new elites.
through the adoption of a specific governing sys-
Despite the complex situation to provide for a cohe-
tem. The case of Iraq, at the other end of the spec-
sive leadership, Arab countries could benefit from an
trum, has illustrated the problematic issue of identity
effective and relatively new instrument: civil society,
politics and the nation-state in the Arab World. And
which has gained significant strength in the Arab
Yemen showcased how the deep social divisions
World in the last five years. The way the political
may threaten democratic transition. Overall, stable
power guarantees channels for dialogue with civil
institutions, as a result of reasonable balanced social
11. See the chapter of Caryn Abrahams included in this volume. 12. See the chapter of Larbi Jaidi included in this volume.
21
INTRODUCTION
structures and inclusive socioeconomic policies, are
process, the revolutionary actors should agree on the
necessary to establish and consolidate democracy in
importance of social and economic development as
divided societies.
a way to make life better for all citizens, and not only
Transitions do not necessarily lead to democracy.
on the unfairness of the old regime and the need to
They can reverse and even lead to the restoration of
overthrow it. Most of the militant groups recruit their
authoritarianism as a reaction to chaos. In this way,
partisans among young educated but poor or middle
the recent European transitions are an exception
class people, frustrated with the lack of employ-
because all of them have successfully resulted in
ment opportunities. In order to halt this process,
the consolidation of democracy. However, historically
these youngsters should be given the opportunity to
the search for stability has prevailed over the search
find a job or undertake the entrepreneurial path, as
for freedom. This confirms the historical review of
small as it may be, to create their own employment.
different approaches, such as Plato’s equation of
Militant groups are also gaining in strength thanks
democracy with chaos, the Hobbesian social contract
to the promotion of political violence by reactionary
based on the search for stability or Kant’s assertion:
groups, inducing it directly or by provoking hostilities
“Argue as much as you please, but obey.” Democracy
between different factions asking for change. The
cannot be understood only in terms of participation. In
inclusion of the old elites in the new political and
order to achieve a stable democracy, there is a need
economic system could, if skilfully driven, prevent this
for institutions, constitutionally defined and protected
kind of reaction of the old elites from jeopardising
from any political interference. It is therefore difficult
the transformation.
to achieve consolidated democracy in weak states.
The Indonesian case is presented by Geoffrey Mac-
In addition, social structures are resilient. A political system in which each ethnic, religious or national
donald as a success story of transition from authoritarianism to democracy.13 Considering its deeply
community is autonomous becomes no longer pos-
divided society, the predominance of Muslims in the
sible, as it intensifies ethnic or religious differences,
population, the significant religious minority and the
leading dominant groups to question the rights of
internal doctrinal and technical division of the Muslim
others. Unfortunately, that process characterises
community itself, he observes that Indonesia may
most of the conflicts in the Middle East and North
serve as a comparative reference for Middle Eastern
Africa region, where, in some cases, polarisation has
Muslim countries. The transition from dictatorship into
even led to humanitarian crisis.
a stable democracy in Indonesia has been possible
Transition periods have been judged as vulnerable to
due to the specific design of the governing system.
violence, especially from non-state groups. The politi-
Power decentralisation and the nature of the electoral
cal power vacuum between the removal of the old
system, in which the voters select candidates instead
regime and the establishment of a new one can lead
of parties in multiple districts, has incentivised politi-
to political competition that often ends in clashes.
cal parties to play local politics and to be as politically
The outbreak of political violence is most probable
broadminded as possible in order to enter parliament.
when the elites feel threatened by the possibility of
This arrangement has forced some political parties
change of the current regime. Major grievances arise
to abandon their ethnic or religious discourse for the
around acute inequalities in economic opportunities
more centrist one. The case of the Islamic party may
and the feeling of wounded dignity. Therefore, in
serve as an example. After gaining only 7% of the
order to reduce violence during the democratisation
vote, the party dropped the idea of Sharia for a more
13. See the chapter of Geoffrey Macdonald included in this volume.
22
INTRODUCTION
moderate rhetoric. Taking into account the similarities
two separated countries, South and North Yemen,
Indonesia shares with the Middle East, this institu-
were each imposing a distinct model of democracy.
tional design, which led to the emergence of centrist
In North Yemen, tribalism and a minimum modality of
and modern political parties, could be, according to
democracy, based only on elections, prevailed. South
Macdonald, adapted to the Middle East context. How-
Yemen was much more liberal, with the maximum
ever, before simply applying the Indonesian model to
type of democracy, where social justice and human
the Arab world, firstly it should be assessed whether
rights were respected. After unification, North Yemen
specific historical, social and economic conditions in
imposed its political system on the newly-unified
the Middle East may influence its effectiveness in
country. The social divisions led to the outbreak of
each case.
the civil war in 1994, which resulted in the revival of
On the issue of identity politics in political transi-
the tribal structure. All the power has been concen-
tions, the main question is how the Arab transitions
trated in the hands of the tribal leaders. As a con-
can fit in a globalising world, and whether the non-
sequence, state structures have disappeared and
Western transitions can be successful without “West-
the middle class and huge parts of civil society were
ern ideals”. The Arab World is wondering whether
excluded from the political scene. Thus, the unifica-
the nations are sufficiently prepared to build new
tion process was not successful, and some parts of
states or whether the nation-building is a part of the
society are now calling for a re-establishment of an
Western colonial programme. One of the core ele-
independent southern state. The solution to the deep
ments of the post-colonialism period is the issue of
social division seems to be the establishment of a
identity politics, which is presented as an expression
real democracy, where all citizens enjoy equal rights
of nation-building. National identity, present in West-
and treatment.
ern culture, is at the centre of the debates on statebuilding in the Arab world and an issue that generates
RESPONDING TO THE EXTERNAL
most of the tensions in the region. In Iraq, the state,
ENVIRONMENT
and through it the nation itself, were built around
On the influence of international and regional actors
the Sunni identity, which led to the marginalisation
on political developments in the Southern Mediter-
of other faiths and communities, affecting national
ranean region, it is interesting to examine the role the
integration and causing violent clashes. Since 2003,
European Union has played in promoting democracy
the Iraqi state has been redefined in order to reflect
in Eastern and Southern Europe, compared with its
this diversity. However, the system based on the rec-
current policies towards the Southern Mediterranean.
ognition and institutionalisation of ethnic identities,
As for the United States, its policies towards the Arab
without providing their equal participation in the ruling
World have been considered in Marina Ottaway’s
establishment, resulted in strengthening the feeling
valuable contribution to this volume with the example
of belonging to community identities, at the expense
of Egypt. Furthermore, we have to bring into the pic-
of national identity. In other words, in the case of Iraq,
ture the involvement of the regional actors during and
both the nation-state and the state of identities have
after the Arab uprisings. Syria is the most tormented
proved to be inadequate. The division of societies and its impact on a transi-
playground for regional powers, whose interests and
tion to democracy may be analysed with the exam-
opments in the country. Fractures within the GCC, as
ple of Yemen. Prior to the unification in 1990, the
a result of different policies towards the Arab Spring
14
14. See the chapter of Haider Saeed included in this volume.
priorities have a decisive impact on the future devel-
23
INTRODUCTION
countries, have been developing, especially in the first
European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries,
stages of the Arab Spring.15
East and South, as unequal partners. Although the
The EU was one of the main drivers of political
EU values and welfare state model continue to be
change in Eastern Europe. The successful transition
attractive for the Southern Mediterranean countries,
of these countries into democracies has been possi-
there is a gap between the expectations and the
ble due to three major factors: the carrot of member-
capabilities to support the region. Thus, in order to
ship; solid state structures, able to adapt to the new
adapt to the new geopolitical context, the EU current
challenges; and party consensus on the need to join
logic of cooperation with its southern neighbours is to
the EU. The conditionality policy also played a crucial
be reformed. To enhance its leverage, the EU should
role in fostering democratisation, as it adjusted the
offer the Southern Mediterranean countries at least a
speed of the enlargement process to the process of
prospect of joining some of the EU sectorial policies,
introducing the necessary reforms. In the current EU
related to market or mobility, in addition to substan-
candidate countries, these special factors are lacking.
tially higher financial or monetary support; that is, the
In the Balkan countries, the state structures are weak,
three Ms approach currently asked for.
tensions within and among the states remain and the
Focusing on another important actor in the region,
elite disagrees on the accession to the EU. In order to
the United States, Marina Ottaway provides, as we
enhance political changes in the Eastern Partnership countries, the EU applies the same instruments used
said, a most interesting assessment of its impact on political developments in the Arab World.17 Since the
during the enlargement process: conditionality and
end of the Cold War, where state interests prevailed
the more for more approach. However, their impact is
over idealistic visions, the US has been struggling
lessened mainly because of the lack of a membership
between running a foreign policy based on interests
carrot and the strong opposition of Russia.
and the policy based on values. In the case of Egypt,
The EU does not have as transformative a power over
the country has been an important US ally in the
the Southern Mediterranean region as it had in East-
region for a long time. Immediately after the outbreak
ern Europe, mainly because of limited resources, lack
of the uprising in January 2011, the US defended
of a structural offer and lack of accession prospect.16 The current EU support is insufficient to enhance the
Mubarak. Afterwards, however, the country changed
EU leverage in the region, especially if compared with
support for the democratic process in Egypt, at least
the financial help provided by some regional actors
in terms of the elections, was based on the hope that
from the Gulf. Moreover, despite the same framework,
the so-called liberals would rise to power. Although
the EU socioeconomic support for its southern neigh-
the victory was finally won by the Muslim Brother-
bourhood in per capita terms is far less considerable
hood, the US decided to back the result. After the out-
than for Eastern Partnership countries. In addition, the
break of protests against Mursi, the US put pressure
cooperation instruments have hardly changed. The
on Egypt to organise more parliamentary elections.
only major change was the reorientation of priorities
The US policy towards Egypt is influenced by three
on civil society and socioeconomic issues. The main
major factors: the first one is the democracy issue.
EU instruments, conditionality and differentiation,
The law obliges the US to stop aid to a country where
are ineffective and the EU continues to treat the
a democratically-elected government is deposed in
its position and called on Mubarak to leave. The US
15. Lynch, M. (2014). The Arab Uprisings Explained: New Contentious Politics in the Middle East. New York, US: Columbia University Press. 16. Khader. B. (2015). Europa y el Mundo Árabe. Una evaluación de las políticas europeas 1957-2015. Barcelona: Icaria-IEMed. 17. See the chapter of Marina Ottaway included in this volume.
INTRODUCTION
24
a coup d’état. However, the US never confirmed or
ings. The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt brought
denied the coup d’état, thus making its policy towards
new governments to power. As a consequence,
Egypt rather ambiguous. The second factor is Israel.
the regional states started to fear a change in the
As long as the new Egyptian president is cooperating
alliance system and in the balance of power in the
with the Israeli government in terms of security, the
region. Due to close military and economic rela-
Israeli government will lobby for American support
tions of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
for Egypt. The last factor is DAESH. As long as Egypt
with Egypt, both countries reacted cautiously to the
is cooperating in eradicating terrorism, the US will
events that removed their close ally Mubarak from
continue to support the country.
the Presidency. Despite its economic interests in
The role of regional actors in shaping the regional
Egypt, Qatar considered it more important to ally
dynamic in the most dramatic way is most evident
with a new regime, as it believed that the develop-
in the case of Syria. The early 1980s witnessed two
ments caused by the Arab Spring were irreversible.
major shifts in the region: the exclusion of Egypt
In the case of Syria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia favoured
from the Arab World, as a consequence of the Camp
maintaining the status quo and drawing the regime
David Accord, and the outbreak of the Iraq-Iran War.
away from the influence of Iran, rather than over-
As a result of these developments, Syria rose from
throwing it. However, their approach changed after
being an arena for others to become a major regional
the increase of the regime violence, even leading the
player. Since 9/11 and the US invasion of Iraq, the
GCC to expel Syria from the Arab League. The grow-
environment has radically changed. Syria’s opposition
ing Iranian hegemony in Syria and the rise of DAESH
to the invasion resulted in the imposition of harsh
have caused major concerns for the Gulf countries.
sanctions on the Syrian economy, which led to the
Nevertheless, in order to stabilise the situation in
country’s gradual isolation and loss of influence. Iso-
the region, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi
lated by the West and by Saudi Arabia, Syria turned
Arabia would need to put aside their differences
into a weak state and started to rely increasingly on
with Turkey and come to an agreement concern-
Iran. In order to balance the Iranian influence in Syria,
ing the security policy towards Iraq and Syria. The
Bashar al-Assad decided to ally more closely with
major issue preventing cooperation is the Muslim
Turkey, leading to growing Turkish influence in Syria.
Brotherhood. While Turkey is strongly supporting the
The Iranian will to fill the vacuum in Iraq after the US
Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia and the United
withdrawal caused major concerns for Turkey and
Arab Emirates perceive it as a threat. Thus, it was
Saudi Arabia. Currently, the region is caught between
observed that Qatar could use its significant relations
three different pressures: the more moderate one led
with Turkey to play the role of mediator and enable
by Turkey, the other two much more involved, one by
better cooperation between Turkey, the United Arab
Saudi Arabia and the last one led by Iran. These three
Emirates and Saudi Arabia to prevent Bashar al-
players have turned the conflict in Syria into a war of
Assad or DAESH from winning in Syria, which with
proxies over their regional dominance in the Middle
the growing role of both Russia and Iran would pose
East. Therefore, the peace in Syria would not be pos-
a threat to the whole region. Then will come the cru-
sible without those three regional powers agreeing
cial issue of how to incorporate Iran into the general
on a solution.
understanding to pacify and stabilise the region, but
Finally, we have to especially consider the policies of
even then the democratic transition processes would
the Gulf countries before and after the Arab upris-
still lie ahead.
25
INTRODUCTION
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